Mid-Range Game 31: Spiritual Warfare

[BrightnessRadiant]

@TheMightyLopen stop lurking:P

[Mailliw73]

I believe Fifth. I have good reason to believe that the Dashe scan is legit. Shqueeves.

Regardless, like Coop said, we've got a day left. Let's lynch a Spirit, but let's also use it to find another one. 

MetaTerminal.

[+ElephantEarwax]

Why did you purple Metaterminal? Also that makes sense. Schqueeves

[Mailliw73]

6 minutes ago, ElephantEarwax said:

Why did you purple Metaterminal? Also that makes sense. Schqueeves

 

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Apparently Coop was attacked by (most likely) the Wildmen. What if we were to propose kill candidates for the Wildmen? WE could vote in purple for those we'd like the Wildmen to kill. Obviously, it would ultimately be in the hands of each Wildman, but we could try to use that as a secondary lynch. Thoughts?

 

[xxGaea]

5 hours ago, Straw said:

Sorry for my inactivity. Crimsn Wolf hasn't said much, and I'd like to hear from her.

Hahaha, I was wondering if anyone was gonna call me out for lurking.

Sorry I've not been active on the thread. I have just been watching interactions and posts from the shadows, and keeping track of my thoughts in my fancy lil spreadsheet. But! I am here, and I will post my reads~

Fifth Scholar; I have slight suspicions against Fifth right now, because it hasn't felt like they have offered all that much in the way of useful information for the village. Their attempt to start a lynch on Shqueeves makes me a bit less suspicious, since it throws a very large amount of suspicion onto them should Shqueeves flip innocent. 
xinoehp512; I don't have any reads either way on xinoehp so far, as everything they've said has felt pretty nai.
Kidpen; I have a stronger Spirit read on Kidpen than I do many others, because they haven't seemed to offer anything useful for the village. Even their vote on Shqueeves doesn't offer any reasoning. It just feels really suspicious to me.
Brightness Radiant; The biggest reason I have a slight suspicion of Brightness is because she has proven very good at appearing village when evil.  But she is offering things that feel villagery.
Devotary of Spontaneity; Hasn't really given much useful information and, like Kidpen, doesn't really offer a reason for also voting on Shqueeves.
Elandera; Feels pretty village to me, because they offer explanations for their actions and overall I just get a village read.
Steeldancer; I am fairly suspicious of Steel this game, since he hasn't really said or done much.
Walin; Much like with xinoehp, I don't really have any read one way or another on Walin.
Cadmium Compounder; CadCom is actually the person I am the most suspicious of. I don't know exactly why, but all their posts have felt incredibly off to me. They also vote on Shqueeves without really giving their own reasoning or suspicion, which makes me even more suspicious.
Mailliw73; Not sure what it is about Mailliw, but I do have a very small amount of suspicion for him. It is not a very high suspicion, since he has been so helpful to the village so far. I am unsure what to think about him.
I think I am here; The reasoning they give to vote on Shqueeves feels a bit off to me, so I am slightly suspicious of them.
Alvron; You just always have to be suspicious of Alv. It's obligatory.  Regardless, I don't have a read one way or another on him--unsurprising, tho.
Straw; I have a small amount of suspicion of Straw, but that is more gut than anything else.
Droughtdrinker; Drought feels pretty village to me, but there is still a tint of suspicion from gutreading. I am conflicted.
TheMightyLopen; I have no reads on way or another on Lopen.
Shqueeves; I don't actually really have much of a read on Shqueeves. I am going to refrain from voting on them until they offer counter on suspicions lobbed at them. I am leary to take Fifth at their word, as well.
MetaTerminal; I am vastly suspicious of Meta. I dunno. They say they are a new player, and a lot of their actions feel like what a new player would do. However, they talk like they know what they are talking about, and don't blatantly play the new player card. It feels a lot more subtle than that, which makes me really suspicious. As someone who tried to play the new player card when I first started playing SE on this site, I am predisposed to be suspicious of those who seem to be deflecting suspicion by being a new player.
ElephantEarwax; Again, just going with the flow on the vote on Shqueeves without giving their own reasoning or suspicion.
Coop772; Coop feels very suspicious to me. They've been posting a lot, but it has mostly been rp. There isn't anything wrong with posting rp, by any means, but their rp feels empty. It is a good way to seem like you are contributing without actually offering anything.

So! Now that all that is out of the way...I am going to place a vote on Cadmium Compounder, since as I said, they are who I am the most suspicious of. As has been said, we still have another day to discuss things, and I don't want to have us only focus on Shqueeves. On the off-chance that Fifth is a Spirit trying to waste two cycles, this way we are still having discussion on other possible Spirits. 

[MetaTerminal]

Mail, is there a reason you’ve purpled me, aside from reasons already stated by others?

And Crimsn, I’m doing my best not to play the New Player card, as I want my suspicions and opinions to be weighed equally with others - obviously I’m going to make mistakes as a new player, but I will do my best not to. Playing the new player card wouldn’t be in my best interest. I talk like I know what I’m talking about because I 1) am an arrogant human being and 2) see previous reason.

And, I agree. As the Shqueeves post seems pretty set upon by others, I will instead vote on someone else who seems Spirit-y. I’ll do that when I can concentrate.

[TheMightyLopen]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@TheMightyLopen stop lurking:P

Awww, that's no fun.

16 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Cadmium Compounder; CadCom is actually the person I am the most suspicious of. I don't know exactly why, but all their posts have felt incredibly off to me. They also vote on Shqueeves without really giving their own reasoning or suspicion, which makes me even more suspicious.

He hasn't voted on Shqueeves though? He's one of the few who hasn't voted on him since the information about Shqueeves was posted. Not that I disagree with you though, because Cadcom is actually one of my top suspicions as well. Specifically, I thought he sounded too sure of himself in his post where he first voted on Bard last Cycle. 

I was a bit suspicious of Steel early on, but he really hasn't posted much lately, which strangely enough makes me lean more village on him because I think he'd be actively trying to avoid suspicion were he actually evil instead of going quiet. Just doesn't seem like the type of elim to do that.

Straw is another I'm mildly suspicious of, although I've been wrong multiple times before with him, so I'm very unsure about that read.

Shqueeves seems like a good lead, so I'll drop my vote there just to increase the gap. I think Mailliw's suggestion for the Wildmen is especially useful this Cycle, since it looks like the lynch is basically decided for this Cycle(barring any new information). For that vote I'll go Cadcom.

No one else has really stood out to me as suspicious that I can recall. Tbh I haven't gone over everyone's posts very thoroughly, so I don't have a lot of strong reads. I've got a couple village reads, but I feel like in a conversion game it's risky to try and convince people of someone's innocence because that makes them a target for conversion, so I'll keep those to myself unless I think I should defend them from a lynch or something.

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Awww, that's no fun.

Yay a post!

38 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Brightness Radiant; The biggest reason I have a slight suspicion of Brightness is because she has proven very good at appearing village when evil.  But she is offering things that feel villagery.

Wooooo yay me! .... wait... 

Haha, but for real thanks because I always think I'm a pretty bad elim tbh when it comes to posting xD

[Kidpen]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I believe Fifth. I have good reason to believe that the Dashe scan is legit. Shqueeves.

Regardless, like Coop said, we've got a day left. Let's lynch a Spirit, but let's also use it to find another one. 

MetaTerminal.

Since Shqueeves seems to be probably lynched. 

Coop

[Coop772]

Would you like to explain why?

[Kidpen]

Just now, Coop772 said:

Would you like to explain why?

Cause you seem evil. I will explain exactly what seems evil soon, but first I most sleep. 

[Coop772]

Is currently running on four hours of sleep

Sleep is for the weak! You know what else starts with W? ELIM!
But I don't think I'll vote kidpen
I'll vote Straw instead, for poke vote's sake @Straw

Edited September 27, 2018 by Coop772
That was not supposed to post yet, my bad

[MetaTerminal]

Since the Shqueeves vote seems set upon, I’m instead going for Steeldancer. This is mostly for their lack of content - their very first post was that we should be elim hunting, but they have yet to have any suspicions or even make any votes.

[Fifth Scholar]

My apologies; I have indeed been neglecting the thread, but that is mainly due to my status as an Independent, and trying to juggle all the PMs I’ve started. I’m also somewhat constrained by time, to be honest. 

In terms of suspicions, I have an off feel on several people but want to hear more before accusing them, especially with Shqueeves as an easy target. 

To clarify what happened: Dashe contacted me in our PM saying that he had found Shqueeves to be a traitor within his faction, because he knew Karata’s identity, and the other person had been protected by the faction ability. He was the only one left for the convert to possibly be. 

[I think I am here.]

On 26/09/2018 at 3:29 PM, Domi in the Dark said:

Nine Cycles Remain Until The Invasion Begins

Wait a sec, has everyone seen this? At the bottom of the player list, it’s bolded and made big. Looks like we have a deadline.

[Straw]

1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

Wait a sec, has everyone seen this? At the bottom of the player list, it’s bolded and made big. Looks like we have a deadline.

Yeah, people were talking about that last cycle. Since Crismn's posted, I'll move my vote from Crimsn Wolf to Shqueeves

 

[CadCom]

9 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Cadmium Compounder; CadCom is actually the person I am the most suspicious of. I don't know exactly why, but all their posts have felt incredibly off to me. They also vote on Shqueeves without really giving their own reasoning or suspicion, which makes me even more suspicious.

I don't know what I've done any different than my normal play. But maybe that's good in the long run. If no one knows my exact playstyle, I can be a better elim when I finally am one.

8 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

He hasn't voted on Shqueeves though? He's one of the few who hasn't voted on him since the information about Shqueeves was posted. Not that I disagree with you though, because Cadcom is actually one of my top suspicions as well. Specifically, I thought he sounded too sure of himself in his post where he first voted on Bard last Cycle. 

Sometimes I like to sound confident, Okay? I'm still suspicious of Bard, and a few others. I have taken into consideration everyone who told me that Bard usually plays like that, but I am going to keep him in my list to watch.

I will probably end up voting for Shqueeves because it seems practically certain that he will be turn elim. But I want to keep discussion going, so I will throw out a couple of thoughts.

If Karata's gang has determined that Shqueeves is a traitor, my question is if they determined that he has been a traitor the whole time, or if he recently became a traitor. If he's been a traitor from the beginning, then they would have some reason to try to protect him, because he is either spirit or galladon. If not, he is, for lack of a better term, disposable, because they can just voice their suspicion of him as well. That type of suspicion is easy to fake, because convincing people that someone is guilty is always easy when you know that person is guilty. But that also makes it so the village "soft clears" that person.

Being a conversion style game, every person we hard clear in any given turn has the potential to not be hard-cleared by the next turn, whereas, alternatively those that we are unsure about will likely remain village. So this game, I am actually going to be looking for reason among the people that I still haven't gotten a read on.

Spirits can convert between 15 and 30% of starting non spirits, so that means that they can convert between 3 and 6 people, making the potential final elim size between 5 and 8. Because we don't know the exact amount, it makes it hard to determine lylo. but if it's 7 or 8, and we don't hoe any spirits by that time, then we will have hoed/ enough villagers that they will have won. I think it's safe to say that at this time, there are 4 elims.

Kidpen is still playing with their typical style, so I can't read him. Others might be able to read him better than me.
Coop I have been somewhat suspicious of Coop, however, not anymore, because I don't think an elim coop would try to redirect the vote, using a poke vote, when a lynch is practically confirmed on a practically confirmed elim. An elim would try to remain under the radar in this situation. Or if they did choose to suggest an alternative candidate, they would try to provide reasoning to do so.
Crimsn Wolf She actually had a very well written post. Most likely village because of that, but they did suggest an alternative candidate, with lots of reasoning. So going off what I just wrote in Coop's, could also be an elim. Also, I don't trust people who don't trust me.  I can't blame you though, because lots of people don't seem to trust me as far as they can throw me this game, including many within my own faction.
Fifth Scholar Is being trustworthy right now, so I am clearing them, for now. Next cycle will be a different story. It sure would be nice if we were able to trust him for longer, but I don't think we'll be able to, given the probability that Elims will like to convert a helpful person, who people also have a tendency to have a village read on.

I'll do more analysis on other players later, but for now, I've got other work to do, so I am going to post these thoughts.

[Steeldancer]

10 hours ago, MetaTerminal said:

Since the Shqueeves vote seems set upon, I’m instead going for Steeldancer. This is mostly for their lack of content - their very first post was that we should be elim hunting, but they have yet to have any suspicions or even make any votes.

 As aforementioned, I have been sick, and haven’t had anything TO say or vote on. I guess I’ll vote on Shqueeves . If you guys eventually decide to Lynch me for lack of content, that’s fine with me, although I’m afraid it wouldn’t do much besides eliminate a non contributor. Once again, if I come up with something intelligent to say, I’ll speak up.

[MetaTerminal]

That’s fair. Steeldancer, CadCom (for reasons I stated in my own analysis post and for reasons said by others).

[A Joe in the Bush]

Sart's Hoed Mantra:

Quote

I said I was busy.

 

[Young Bard]

My assignment is all turned in now, so I should have a lot more time to devote to this. Apologies for not being here sooner. Also, a fair chunk of this was started yesterday, then I put it aside because I had other things to get done - discussion about this cycle is at the very bottom of the post.

This post is fairly eclectic, since I have a bunch of mostly independent things I want to talk about, since that's just the mood I'm in. Sorry about that - if you need clarification on anything, let me know.

Hmmm... Cadcom, a quick response - as a couple of people mentioned, I do think it's fairly typical for me to try and post a couple early reads as soon as possible. That's doubly true in a conversion game, as well, since I think it's important to have as many people's opinions and thoughts out on the table as soon as possible, so we can see where they change later, and whether that change is suspicious. (I had planned to urge others to do the same, but due to time restraints I didn't have time to, unfortunately, which could make the late game more difficult. Nevermind.) The fact that I voted against a Day 1 lynch instead of for it is highly unusual for me, but that's because the odds are so much lower due to this being a conversion game that I didn't feel this was worth it.

I find Terminal's post much more concerning - immediately jumping on xinoehp after Shqueeves called xino out on not posting (speaking of which, Shqueeves, I haven't seen you post anything at all about your suspicions either, so I'd love to hear more from you), then immediately hopping over to voting on me after Cadcom's vote, and providing little or no reasoning either time apart from "I agree with what the person above me said". They don't seem to be on Wilson's Spreadsheet yet, so I'm assuming that this is Terminal's first game (if so, welcome to SE, Terminal. Glad you could join the madness - I look forward to stabbing you in the back sometime. ) As such, I think I'm putting that down in my head as being a new player. [Me from the future - I can't really see Terminal as a Spirit, so I disagree with Maill's choice of purple vote.]

The other post I find immediately concerning is Coop's, particularly since I have a trust read on Maill. It seems like Coop was just in a hurry due to IRL stuff (I've certainly been there), so again I'm not going to treat this as too alignment indicative. However, I will say that from what you described, I don't find Maill's behaviour all that unusual or suspicious - I remember him having a reputation for being good at convincing other players to claim to him. I have a (slightly sore) memory of his final game before his hiatus, LG24, when he was leaving in the second or third cycle, and before he left, he tried to reveal the role/alignments of every player in the game. He wasn't perfect, but he was better than anyone had any right to be, IMO. [Me from the future - I basically agree with what Drought said about this as well.]

Oh, and I went back over Steel's posts specifically with fresh eyes, and couldn't find whatever it was that made me suspicious of them - I'm putting it down to sleep deprivation. He's back to neutral on my reads list.

I've gone back and looked at Elandara's posts, as well, since two people (Maill and BR) independently seem to have expressed suspicion of him. I don't really see it, but I intend to keep an eye on his posts to see if there's anything that strikes me as off from here on.

A brief note on the number of converts we can expect - the Spirits have had the chance to convert twice, but there's a certain amount of advantage in converting late since it means that there's less chance for the Eliminators to have gotten picked off over time. On the other hand, more Eliminators early means more security to prevent an accidental early reveal, and more people to discuss strategy with. Depending on the experience of Raoden and Galladon, then I'd guess they've probably converted once.

Speaking of which, here's a rough callout of people who I haven't seen post much in thread - @xinoehp512, @Walin, @Straw, @I think I am here., @Shqueeves, @ElephantEarwax - if you could, could you please post something about who you're suspicious of, and who you think you trust? For now, I'll vote on Lopen as a pokevote.

---

This is where I stopped yesterday, mainly because I felt like my post wouldn't be that useful without some idea of at least one person who I was suspicious of, and I honestly couldn't find anything that struck me as suspicious yesterday. Luckily, I have two more suspicions from todays content.

First, Shqueeves. Even if it's wrong, we still get leads, since in meant Fifth or Fifth's contact/group is lying, which is useful information to find a Spirit either way.

Second, BR. Something about their post this cycle where they give reads of everyone feels off. Specifically, the posts I find village or neutral gave off the sense of not knowing a large chunk of information and was trying to figure it out, and this didn't give me that sense. Then again, they're also one of the most active posters, which makes me hesitant to vote on them, since they're one of the big drivers of conversation, and there's just more chances for her to write something that seems suspicious to me or anyone else. I'm keeping an eye on her posts, though.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Young Bard
Brain fluff - referred to 'cycle' instead of 'post' in my first paragraph.

[Mailliw73]

@Young Bard You have Lopen and Shqueeves red colored. You'll want to change one of them. 

Hey, hey, I've grown over the past couple years, I haven't dumped any info into the thread yet.  

[BrightnessRadiant]

29 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Second, BR. Something about their post this cycle where they give reads of everyone feels off. Specifically, the posts I find village or neutral gave off the sense of not knowing a large chunk of information and was trying to figure it out, and this didn't give me that sense. Then again, they're also one of the most active posters, which makes me hesitant to vote on them, since they're one of the big drivers of conversation, and there's just more chances for her to write something that seems suspicious to me or anyone else. I'm keeping an eye on her posts, though.

I never posted my reads on everyone? Was going to this cycle but ended up being busy all day irl with babysitting etc.

[Young Bard]

21 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

@Young Bard You have Lopen and Shqueeves red colored. You'll want to change one of them. 

Hey, hey, I've grown over the past couple years, I haven't dumped any info into the thread yet.  

Oops. This is what happens when I craft a post over two different days - I forget what I said/did yesterday.  (Thanks.)

Lopen, Shqueeves

4 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I never posted my reads on everyone? Was going to this cycle but ended up being busy all day irl with babysitting etc.

I... huh.

I could have sworn you did, that's really weird. I'm going out now - I'll figure out what I thought I saw and who said it when I get back. I was trying to get a post out quickly with plenty of time before the end of the cycle, and I guess that backfired since I didn't properly doublecheck everything as much. I haven't just escaped from an asylum, I promise...

[Alvron]

34 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Hey, hey, I've grown over the past couple years, I haven't dumped any info into the thread yet.  

I miss old Maill.  Those info dumps were a great source of amusement.