Long Game 49/Anonymous Game 3: Window to the Past

[Opal Lion]

9 hours ago, SE_Navani_Kholin said:

Also, Beggar, you've posted, but haven't said an alibi. It would be helpful if you did.

To clarify, I was claiming to have gambled last turn.

5 minutes ago, SE_Liss said:

My biggest fear is someone will transfer items that mark them as guilty if they know people are suspicious.  Then we have to action and item spy... And I personally don't think that doing both is viable.

I would assume that item spying goes before item passing, but I have yet to receive confirmation of that. We probably can't do full item spying even if all twenty of us decided to help. With three people required for guaranteed success and not everyone having the item spying ability, we could probably only scan at most five people. Having action scans from those who can't item spy should help, but we still don't have a great chance of catching the killer.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

(Sorry I’ve been so inactive this cycle. It was a busy weekend and I only have a few minutes to post this today. I have only briefly skimmed the thread. 

Ialai and I did indeed work together, but I received a notice saying that I had been role blocked)

Dalinar left the sepulcher beneath the palace. He had spent the past half hour there, letting his rage *sober himself up. Whoever had taken the lives of His brother and son would regret their actions, for they had just unleashed the Blackthorn. 

*or so Dalinar thinks, anyway. 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1 hour ago, SE_Meridas_Amaram said:

@SE_Jasnah_Kholin The reason why I suggest posting it in thread is so that if someone is killed we know who has something to hide.

So I think it might be smart, to reveal who we are planning on scanning. But if we do that, I think it would be best to wait until the last possible minute (depending on when we (or our scanning partners) logs off for the cycle) That way the bad people can't plan too far ahead with their actions. Better just to keep it a secret as long as possible, if you reveal at all. 

Edited October 8, 2018 by SE_Jasnah_Kholin

[Ivory Dragonfly]

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Sorry for the inactivity. I've been a bit busy lately. I should be around more after Thursday.

Hmm. I don't have an alibi. I did not take an action last cycle.

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This cycle is now over. Please bear with me whilst I resolve rollover.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Szeth-son-son-Vallano, Truthless of Shinovar, wore white as he pled for the others to listen. White at the request of his masters. White to be bold. White to show the warm, crimson blood spreading across his chest.

Szeth looked down at the knife that seemed to have suddenly sprouted from his chest. Someone must've thrown it at him -- but who? He looked back up at the crowd, and caught a glimpse of someone hastily slipping away. Was it just him, or had the Alethi parted to let them disappear? Perhaps they did not care as much for an assassination attempt on the Parshendi's servant nearly as much as an attempt on their own.

It was so hard to stand, now. Szeth flung his hand out to summon his Honorblade, his knees buckling beneath him. One...two...three... No use. He couldn't see any Stormlight nearby. He crumpled to the floor.

Strangely, for such a deep cut, the knife didn't hurt too much. Was he dying? The world spun as Szeth looked for his masters -- but thankfully, they were safe, these strange not-human beings who had still treated him the most humanely out of any of his masters. He hoped they would stay that way.

"I've always imagined this moment," Szeth whispered to his unseen assailant. "Thank you."

Szeth-son-son-Vallano, Truthless of Shinovar, keeled over. Dead.

---

Volunteers Wanted!

The Heralds of the Almighty call on your aid.

Required Volunteers: Attackers who can cooperate to reach up to a 100% success chance. This will not help you reach any win conditions that require killing.

Bonus Volunteers: Anyone willing to contribute towards either the defense action or the attack action. Note that defenders must be willing to cooperate rather than lead.

Extra Special Volunteer: A willing target. Through Heralds Ltd. will make every effort to ensure your safety, we hereby cede responsibility for any damage you may incur, including, but not limited to, decapitation, evisceration, defenestration, incineration, exsanguination, corneal extirpation, and lethal transmutation.

Participants will be entitled to rewards payable in items and/or favors according to the requests of the volunteers on a first-come, first-served basis. Volunteers may sign up in public, or at one of the many Heraldic registration booths conveniently located at strategic locations throughout the palace.

Those who interfere with this process, whether through roleblocks, redirects, or abstentions, will be consigned to Damnation upon their untimely death.

---

Szeth was killed.

---

PMs remain generally closed, but you may now pay one Infused Broam to send a single PM message to a player of your choice. This may be done as many times a turn as you have Infused Broams.

The ostracism this turn will result in the death of the player with the most votes.

This cycle will end in just under 47 hours time, at 11pm BST on the 10th October.

[Magenta Albatross]

Aesudan read the note with her lips pursed.

"What do you think, Lhan?" she called out, waving for the portly ardent to inspect the note. "Do the heralds themselves call upon us for aid?"

"Obviously not, Brightness. As you know, the heralds have gone to fight for the tranquiline halls, and your job is to elevate your calling in this life. Which, you are doing an excellent job of, Brightness. In my professional opinion, whoever is making these allegations is obviously an impersonator."

"Well, that's a relief. Thank you," Aesudan said, biting her lip with concern. "You're sure about this?"

"Truly, this is a crass imitation, and whoever dares claim the office of herald is the most base sort of person. Pay it no heed. You are already doing so very well. None could impeach your piety and devotion."

"No. No, of course not. You're right, Lhan. This is nonsense. I have a storming kingdom to help salvage, and Almighty knows where Elhokar's run off to. Have you seen Elhokar?"

 

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In seriousness though, if you were willing to compensate me, I would consider agreeing to be the person that is attacked and protected.

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by SE_Aesudan_Kholin

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Well, Let's try going over who's been killed so far, and see if we can determine anything. 

First, Thaidakar, possibly a Ghostblood.
Second, I was attacked (most likely by Restares) and protected (most likely by Drunk Beggar) We can't be certain why I was attacked but the cycle Restares asked if anyone had an item steal action was the same cycle that I was attacked, if my memory serves me correctly. We also know that Restares performed an Item scan. All I had at the time was a bottle of violet wine, which I passed to Adolin
Third, Torol Sadeas was killed, by Ialai, who had attacked someone else, but was redirected. Unfortunate. She has said that that completed her win con. 
fourth Renarin and Restares were both killed. Renarin at one time held the black sphere, which I also held at one time. Restares was done in order to kill an active killer and it was correct.
Fifth, Gavilar was killed. He held the black sphere at the time, which is now missing
sixth, Szeth was killed, presumably to find dalinar's killer? 

I just ran out of time, so I'll try to add more info later to this analysis. Possible 12 hours though.

 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

2 hours ago, SE_Aesudan_Kholin said:

...Almighty knows where Elhokar's run off to. Have you seen Elhokar?

...No. What'd he do this time?

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So I know people have been scanning items to help find Gavilar's killer. I would like to point out that the killer might try to hide from the scan. Maybe we can get some people searching too, just in case? 

Also, since we've got a standard lynch again, I would like to put Eshonai up for discussion. "Defending someone" is very nonspecific, especially when she didn't include who she was defending or why. @SE_Eshonai, care to expound? To be a good excuse, you would need to defend Gavilar or be trying to fulfill a win con, in which case the person you're defending should know about it 

Eshonai

[Quartz Zebra]

I have now completed that wincon.  I had the wincon to keep all Parshendi alive for 2 hours.  Both Klade and Venli can confirm this was the case as I was discussing throughout the wincon with them who my best protect target would be.  (Szeth could have as well, but someone seems to have killed him)  This was completed with the most recent cycle turnover.  As with the rest of you, I would definitely like to find Gavilar's killer now.

[little wilson]

Write-up edited in, written by the player who played Szeth.

[Magenta Albatross]

35 minutes ago, SE_Elhokar_Kholin said:

...No. What'd he do this time?

“Elhokar, I’ve been looking for you.

We’re in a difficult spot, with Gavilar dead at this juncture. You understand better than most how very fragile this new kingdom is. The highprinces need a strong leadership, else I fear the kingdom will not survive as a united whole... And that is not even speaking to the scores of diplomats that are watching all of this unfold.

I find it distasteful to do this so soon after Gavilar’s death, but it may be necessary to coronate you with all haste. Perhaps even tonight, while everyone is still gathered here, and nobody has had time to get any ideas about declaring independence or any such rubbish. With your assent, I will begin contacting the various princedoms to rally support for your leadership. What do you think?”

[Opal Lion]

3 hours ago, SE_Aesudan_Kholin said:

In seriousness though, if you were willing to compensate me, I would consider agreeing to be the person that is attacked and protected.

While all the Heralds would be be tied up protecting you this cycle if you agree to volunteer, I have been authorized to offer two infused broams and/or a cooperative action next cycle, especially a redirect if you still have that win condition. Other Heralds may make additional offers.

[Onyx Flamingo]

@SE_Eshonai @SE_Venli @SE_Klade.

Please do not consider this as me accusing any of you, as I am reluctant to cast my vote for ostricisation as of right now, but please do consider this an opportunity for you to put many people's suspicions of you to rest.  I am going to list the things that I think would be nice to have addressed.

1. The parshendi are a group that seems to have their wincons tied quite closely.  Similar to Gavilar-Restares-Amaram, or Ivory-Jasnah.  Because of this, we need a non-parshendi (non-Szeth) charecter to vouch for you.  Just like how I wouldn't trust Jasnah to condemn Ivory for their faults, I wouldn't expect any of you to point out any wrongdoings of each other.

2. in hour 6.5, Klade said that Venli and Szeth protected him.  He never said what he did.  I asked for clarification in a PM, and both Navani and I asked him to give us an alibi for himself, but we never got a response.

3. Klade never said that Eshonai protected him.  This seems like something he would know.  Eshonai, who did you protect in hour 6?  You never answered the question.

Honestly, there are other people who I find, on principal, more suspicious than you three, but every post that one of you three make that skirts around our questions without addressing them, makes you appear more suspicious.  Please, please, please! put those suspicions to rest if you truly are innocent.

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I personally think that with all that is going on, it is important to share information with characters that will (probably) have a similar desired world outcome as you.  For instance,  Nale is probably less likely to kill random people than most others, as he wants justice (not impossible, just less likely).  Jasnah probably doesn't want the world to end and explode.  I think these are generally safe bets.  I... Have no idea what Liss would want. (more money?), so though i personally have my opinion.

If you three don't wish to share your information in-thread, please at least share what you can in docs, so that you can get people to vouch for you.

Even with the lack of accessible PMs, I have been surprised by how unresponsive most of my docs have been...

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by SE_Liss

[Indigo Weasel]

1 hour ago, SE_Liss said:

1. The parshendi are a group that seems to have their wincons tied quite closely.  Similar to Gavilar-Restares-Amaram, or Ivory-Jasnah.  Because of this, we need a non-parshendi (non-Szeth) charecter to vouch for you.  Just like how I wouldn't trust Jasnah to condemn Ivory for their faults, I wouldn't expect any of you to point out any wrongdoings of each other.

The point's unfortunately moot at this point, but I item-scanned Szeth with help from Jasnah (which puts my chance of success north of 90%). He didn't have the black Sphere, but he did have an honorblade. I also know item-scans occur before items are passed. I'd expect Szeth to be the killer if it was the Parshendi win-con, so I think we can probably rule them out for now.

Edited October 9, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Sage Kangaroo]

6 hours ago, SE_Liss said:

Please do not consider this as me accusing any of you, as I am reluctant to cast my vote for ostricisation as of right now, but please do consider this an opportunity for you to put many people's suspicions of you to rest.  I am going to list the things that I think would be nice to have addressed.

1. The parshendi are a group that seems to have their wincons tied quite closely.  Similar to Gavilar-Restares-Amaram, or Ivory-Jasnah.  Because of this, we need a non-parshendi (non-Szeth) charecter to vouch for you.  Just like how I wouldn't trust Jasnah to condemn Ivory for their faults, I wouldn't expect any of you to point out any wrongdoings of each other.

2. in hour 6.5, Klade said that Venli and Szeth protected him.  He never said what he did.  I asked for clarification in a PM, and both Navani and I asked him to give us an alibi for himself, but we never got a response.

3. Klade never said that Eshonai protected him.  This seems like something he would know.  Eshonai, who did you protect in hour 6?  You never answered the question.

Honestly, there are other people who I find, on principal, more suspicious than you three, but every post that one of you three make that skirts around our questions without addressing them, makes you appear more suspicious.  Please, please, please! put those suspicions to rest if you truly are innocent.

Quote

I used the Oathstone to order Szeth and Venli to protect me. While I cannot be certain, I believe Eshonai protected Venli. I know that thus far, no one has vouched for us, but to my knowledge, this is what took place.

[Quartz Zebra]

Hour 6 had a little miscommunication on our side - I thought Klade was having Szeth protect Venli, so I protected Klade.  Hour 6.5, I protected Venli.  Additionally, Navani, Jasnah, and Wit could, to some degree, confirm that my purpose at that time was to protect my people, as I did ask them for help in determining if there were any threats to my fellow parshendi.

Here's a complete list of players still active and my thoughts on why they may have wanted Gavilar dead:

• Dalinar - unless there was a wincon of "kill your brother in a drunken stupor", I can't think of a reason Dalinar would want Gavilar dead.
• Amaram - I don't think Amaram would have any reason to kill Gavilar either...although I could see Amaram being shady.  Don't see any reason for him to kill Gavilar though
• Tearim - again, don't see any obvious reason why Tearim would want Gavilar dead.
• Navani - Perhaps something came up studying the black sphere that caused Navani to fear Gavilar would do something he should't?  Still doesn't seem likely.
• Ialai - Perhaps Ialai found some information that pointed to Gavilar being responsible for redirecting her kill action onto Torol?
• Jasnah - only thing I can think of is similar to Navani...seems unlikely though.
• Ivory - Interesting case here...if the study of the black sphere resulted in anything, Ivory I think would be the most likely to actually perform the kill
• Elhokar - this one is actually kind of easy...Elhokar wanted to be king.
• Aesudan - wanted Elhokar to be king
• Adolin - I find this one really tough...unless Adolin found some proof that Gavilar was responsible for Renarin's death?  That seems even more unlikely though.
• Wit - Who knows what Wit's motives are.
• Liss - Cause some chaos?
• Drunk Beggar - This is an interesting one.  Gavilar actually PMed me asking for help attacking Drunk Beggar.  Now, he claimed it was so that Kelek could end up protecting DB, but that may have been a reason to respond if DB found out about it.
• Ash - not really sure what to think here.  Don't see an obvious connection
• Darkness - Seems like a decent possibility actually.  If Nale found out Gavilar was doing something that may result in the return of of the radiants.
• Kelek - don't see a lot of reason for Kelek to be involved.  Especially since Gavilar was apparently trying to help with his wincon.
• Eshonai - If we had gotten to the point where I was involved, it likely would have been Szeth rather than me...and we have a couple confirmations that Szeth was not involved.
• Venli - same
• Klade - same

So, I'm seeing the following as the most likely killers: Ialai (low), Ivory (low), Elhokar (med), Aesudan (med), Darkness (high)

[Opal Lion]

35 minutes ago, SE_Eshonai said:

Drunk Beggar - This is an interesting one.  Gavilar actually PMed me asking for help attacking Drunk Beggar.  Now, he claimed it was so that Kelek could end up protecting DB, but that may have been a reason to respond if DB found out about it.

I specifically asked Gavilar to attack me because I knew he had a win condition requiring him to lead an action with three other people, and would thus likely be willing and able to pull off a 100% successful attack. Gavilar would not have attacked me, or anyone else, if I hadn't requested his help.

I'm would also put extremely low odds on Darkness being the killer, as he was ostracised at the time. As far as I can tell, all ostracised players needed to work together to target non-ostracised players with PMs, so killing someone would probably be impossible.

[Quartz Zebra]

1 minute ago, SE_Drunk_Beggar said:

I'm would also put extremely low odds on Darkness being the killer, as he was ostracised at the time. As far as I can tell, all ostracised players needed to work together to target non-ostracised players with PMs, so killing someone would probably be impossible.

Ahh, I had forgotten about the the ostracized people.  Good point.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

4 hours ago, SE_Eshonai said:

• Navani - Perhaps something came up studying the black sphere that caused Navani to fear Gavilar would do something he should't?  Still doesn't seem likely.
• Jasnah - only thing I can think of is similar to Navani...seems unlikely though.

Except we studied the sphere the same night that Gavilar was killed. Gavilar put in the main action though. We know his action is successful because we learned what it did. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

Thank you Eshonai for starting the list of suspects.  Please don't mind me as I sort it for you:

I think we need organize this into 4 categories:
   1. "Motive" - People who have something to gain from his death
   2. "Neutral" - People who have nothing to gain or lose from his death (or who we have no idea about)
   3. "Loss" - People who have something to lose from his death
   4. "Innocent" - People who were indisputably unable to contribute to Gavilars survival or death.

Spoiler

 

Motive:

• Elhokar - wanted to be king.
• Aesudan - climbing the social ladder
• Eshonai - If we had gotten to the point where Eshonai was involved, it likely would have been Szeth rather than her...and we have a couple confirmations that Szeth was not involved.
• Venli - same
• Klade - same
• Drunk Beggar - Gavilar targeting DB? @SE_Kelek, were you working with Gavilar to protect DB? if Gavilar was lying and Kelek wasn't in on this plot (which I think unlikely), then I wouldn't necessarily hold it against DB for retaliation. + Preventing desolation
• Ivory - Preventing desolation
• Ash - preventing desolation
• Kelek -Preventing desolation. +  Unlikely since Gavilar was apparently trying to help with his wincon.

Neutral:

• Dalinar - unless there was a wincon of "kill your brother in a drunken stupor", I can't think of a reason Dalinar would want Gavilar dead.
• Wit - Who knows what Wit's motives are.
• Ialai - Perhaps Ialai found some information that pointed to Gavilar being responsible for redirecting her kill action onto Torol?
• Adolin - I find this one really tough...unless Adolin found some proof that Gavilar was responsible for Renarin's death?  That seems even more unlikely though.

Loss: (I hesitate to put people in here as it would imply they are innocent, and I am not convinced they are.)

• Amaram - fellow SoH
• Tearim - All my info comes from the first couple hours, but Gavilar trusted Tearim a lot.

Innocent:

• Navani - Gavilar's messages in-thread and in docs match what Navani & Jasnah claim with the black sphere. - Would be in "neutral"
• Jasnah - Gavilar's messages in-thread and in docs match what Navani & Jasnah claim with the black sphere. - Would be in "motive"
• Liss - Ostracized - Would be in "neutral"
• Darkness - Ostracized - Would be in "motive"

 

I think Klade's and Eshonai's explanation is satisfactory for the moment (especially with Ivory's item scan of Szeth).  And hopefully, in honor of Gavilar's memory, we can restrain ourselves from pointing at the Parshendi for the near future.  This will allow us to discuss some of the other people who have motive.

Edited October 9, 2018 by SE_Liss

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I can confirm that I helped Gavilar to protect DB. And for the record, I can confirm Ivory's item scan.

[Emerald Falcon]

I was very confused about the Herald thing until I remembered that anonymous messages existed.

In terms of finding the killer, I like the method that Liss has provided. People can be ambivalent towards a kill but can provide assistance in order to be on good terms with an ally, for example. In terms of people who have been vouched for: murders take at least two people to carry out effectively, so something like this would probably require three. Thus, there would be ample opportunity for all of the accomplices to vouch for each other. If someone suspicious has been vouched for by an equally suspicious person, that doesn’t take them off the table. Not all alibis are created equal.

[Saffron Iguana]

Venli was sad about that. Szeth had been a good servant, he hadn't deserve to die. He had done nothing. He hadn't even killed. She attuned the Rhythm of the Loss.

[Mauve Crocodile]

On 08/10/2018 at 7:24 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Extra Special Volunteer: A willing target. Through Heralds Ltd. will make every effort to ensure your safety, we hereby cede responsibility for any damage you may incur, including, but not limited to, decapitation, evisceration, defenestration, incineration, exsanguination, corneal extirpation, and lethal transmutation.

Incineration?  

Adolin trembled upon seeing the notice pinned to the door. Surely...surely the Heralds were not back? And if they were, why now, and why were they asking people to attack others at the party? Adolin wanted to find the killers of his brother and uncle more than anyone else, but the rage burning within him would not lead him to kill. Yet these “Heralds” would slaughter indiscriminately, only hoping that somebody survived, in order to accomplish their own twisted ends. Feeling a shudder run through him, he eyed one of the servant girls. It was unlikely, but again, anyone could be a Herald in disguise, or at least be pretending. “Ash,” Adolin began, the name feeling strange on his tongue. “What does any of this mean? Do you know what the Heralds are planning, or why they would promote such a twisted system over justice and order?”

(Any @SE_Heralds will suffice to explain, really.)