Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Kidpen]

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Speaking of which...*runs of to his GM PM*

Edit:

There's some other things that stood out to me as well. @Kidpen(and there's some others for who this goes as well), you've made a number of posts, but unless I missed it its mostly RP. There's nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't make figuring out your alignment any easier. I think only about half or so of the players have posted game thoughts, which makes it harder to find the elims.

You did indeed miss something. I also posted a picture of Larry the cucumber in a pirate outfit.

Actually though, I’ll post my real thoughts in a short while. I’m really bad at analysis, so don’t expect it to be all that meaningful.

[Snipexe]

Thanks Rand, I'll post now. So I haven't been able to super study everyone's posts yet, so I'm going take a bit of time, and read through everyone's posts. To fill the lack of content, here's some RP!

______________________________________________________________________________________

Exetes grinned. The work was really coming along quite well, the colors turning out just right. He had been quite lucky to come across that sleeping guard with the finger painting set. It had started as a simple self portrait, but as he'd started to blend, and experiment with the other colors, it had turned to more of a modern piece. He signed it, and then walked away, grinning with the joy of creating a master piece. 

 

Edited June 3, 2018 by Snipexe
nothing, that was an accident

[Steeldancer]

Quick reminder to all those who have not put in their iocaine choice- please tell me which cup you would poison, and which cup you would drink. Thank you for your cooperation.

[DeTess]

I've finished a review of Bugsy's posts and defenses, and at this point I don't think the move I highlighted would be an elim-tell for him. Maybe he's playing innocent very well, but it took too much explaining to get across why I thought his early shading of Araris was suspicious for him to have intentionally been doing so as an elim. I'm not saying that he's village, just that I now think that the catalyst of the votes on him is likely NAI. 

In my own reads, he's moving to Neutral for now, though I'd like to note that if he is lynched later and flips elim, we should take another close look at today;'s lynch candidates, as by his own admission he wouldn't be making a move like he did as an elim if the village was going to mislynch on its own. I'd say Devotary would need reviewing in that case.

I'll be going to bed in a couple of minutes, and won't be around for turnover.

[Eternum]

I finally had enough time to read through the thread. Hey Rand, how slow is this game by championship standards?

This entire Bugsy-Araris-Len exchange has been.. Interesting. Right now, I've begun to suspect that Bugsy and Araris are distancing, and while Len's "defense" of Araris seemed.. unnecessary at best, it's not a priority of mine to think about it, mainly because it could go either way. The fact that Bugsy only reacted to Araris's post (the one @Mark IV quoted) after it was brought up by someone else, despite it being a prime target for accusations, makes me uneasy. So I'll be leaving my vote on Araris for now. Depending on how he flips, if he gets lynched, I want to/will look at Rand, Bugsy and Len as the most contributing (discussion-wise) players this cycle.

[Sparkrunner]

Spoiler

@Araris Valerian VS @Bugsy VS @Elenion
Compilation as of 6/3/18 ~ 1:51 PM
~ Roadwalker

Araris: " will have nothing to do with any pirates, including [Bugsy] (Who has "Pirate" in their character name.)"

Kidpen votes on Araris for "find[ing] it inconceivable that the pirates are the good guys."

Bugsy: "The pirates are the good guys in this game, which surely you must have known were that your role in your PM. An elim slip in the second post of the game? Things are looking pretty good for the village  

I'm gonna assume that was a joke, and that the vote was a poke vote that will be retracted once I post. Still, as unlikely as it is, it's possible this was a slip, so if literally nothing else happens this cycle I may vote on you. "

Araris: "I am aware that we are all pirates, but you are the only person that actually called yourself a pirate. Since you chose your name before alignments were assigned, I'm not sure how me mentioning it could be an elim slip. Regardless, Dread Pirate Cummerbund. (Bugsy)"

Bugsy: "No, I'm just about certain it was a joke, and that it's almost completely NAI. If it is indicative of alignment at all, though, I'd say it's more indicative of being evil than not. If I have everyone at 50% village read to start, it might move him to 49%, say. Certainly not enough to lynch on with any semblance of comfort."

Araris: "I don't know. I'd lynch you, Bugsy, without any discomfort at all. Someone must lead, so that others can follow."

Len: " I'm going to jump in and defend Araris here, because I'd actually put it as a village indication. Something like this has come up in multiple games before: IIRC it's called the Ripple Effect because it was RippleGylf who one game messed up the names of the village and elim teams and everyone thought it was a slip. An elim is more likely to scrutinize their posts for accuracy before posting than a villager is, so it's more likely that a villager would make an RP slip than an elim. Bugsy, because I agree with Rand that you looked very opportunistic there, and because I'm not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment. Araris' post is NAI at worst and slightly village at best. "

Doc: " Uhm, Len, aren't you being just a little opportunistic as well? Bugs explicitly said that he felt Araris' post was NAI (which you agreed with), and he would only vote on Araris if there's nothing better to vote on (Of which you are guilty of saying exactly the same)  "

Bugsy:

Spoiler

Were I attempting to be opportunistic, wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well? I could simply have flown beneath the radar. As an elim, I certainly wouldn't be calling attention to something that minor this early in the game, especially because the elims have no incentive to direct the vote this early; it's very unlikely we'll hit an elim day one, so they can just stay back and later vote on targets of opportunity after skating beneath the radar. 

Speaking of, isn't this sort of what you're doing? I said Araris' post was NAI, but slighly Elim at worst. You say this is opportunistic, although I fail to see it at all as advantageous. Then, as you accuse me of being opportunistic, you do the very same thing, saying you're voting for me because you're "not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment". You're acting in a far more opportunistic manner than I am, voting on someone who's already leading in votes for an infraction you admit is minor and for something you yourself have done. I did not even vote in mine, leading to absolutely no influence on the lynch, much less on someone eliminators would deem an acceptable target because I'm already subject to suspicion

Elenion, you currently appear to be the best choice for a lynch to me.

Mr. Doctor:

Spoiler

I don’t like the way that Araris and Elenion jumped on Bugsy in the way that they did. Bugsy made an innocent statement that didn't seem at all suspicious from a technical standpoint, and justified it well with a follow-up post, but they haven't yet rescinded their votes. That may change, but it currently smells unpleasant to me. Araris was willing to vote against Bugsy for virtually no justification, based on a statement was entirely reasonable on Bugsy’s part, and Elenion followed him.

As Doc, my fellow medical practitioner, pointed out: that’s unsustainable. I can think of two potential conclusions from this. Firstly, they are happy to sow distrust where none needs to exist in the name of getting the ball rolling. Secondly, and perhaps worse, they’re coordinating. Either option is not nice in my books. If they will happily sacrifice the integrity and net trust of the Village, then I’m not sure if they should be considered reliable, regardless of roles. If they’re coordinating, then we have a bigger problem.

However, Elenion has offered helpful posts earlier, and appears to be well-engaged in this game. Since the vote against Bugsy only a small part of his activity so far, and the bulk of it has been discussion on the game mechanics, I’m more willing to trust him to try and move things along with a vote. Regardless, this has earned him a place on a list.

Araris was the instigator of this attack on Bugsy, and he doesn’t nearly have the saving graces that Elenion does. I can’t say that I have any idea about Araris's alignment, but as I stated earlier, either conclusion from this is not good, which means that voting on him is my best option.

I hope that everyone’s names can be cleared and we can resolve it before this turns into something worse.

Rand: "Bugsy, you stated that you don't think elims will vote early to attract attention to themselves. Both Araris' and Elenion's votes attracted quite a bit of attention, especially at this stage. If one or both of them are elims, do you think there's a reason for them to be moving more agressively? "

Bugsy:

Spoiler

I stated that Elims have little to no incentive in selecting the target of the vote themselves, as is done by anyone introducing a new suspicion on another player, but as suspicion had already been cast on me they could more easily add on without appearing to be the originators of the idea. It's sort of the concept of diffusion of responsibility; I don't believe Elims avoid voting - in fact, as I said, I feel the ideal elim response to Araris' poke vote would have been to return a vote and then mutually back off - but I do believe that they will avoid being the first to identify someone as suspicious, at least this early in the game.

I believe Elenion's vote has attracted attention primarily because it was a bit hypocritical; under normal circumstances, an Elim following up a village suspicion with a vote simply gives the appearance of consensus, which is a powerful factor. Araris', meanwhile, avoided making any firm statement of suspicion, which means he can very easily back off if it goes south. He merely said that someone had to be lynched first, which means if I'm lynched and revealed to be a villager he can just shrug. Either of those actions allow Elims to more easily divest responsibility

Len: "This is exactly what you did: you got on, saw that Araris had said something questionable, and called attention to it. As you said, elims have no incentive to vote this early. You did not put a vote down on Araris, but you provided yourself with a way to vote on him later. Your statement made him into a "target of opportunity" that an elim!Bugsy could vote on.

My vote differs from yours for two reasons. I didn't do the opportunistic set-up for a later vote; I put my vote down right away. I also didn't think you had good reason to vote on Araris, but I had reason to vote on you because you were taking something that Araris did that I was reading village on, and then spun it in a way that made him look guilty. That looks elim-y, so I voted on you, with that vote also moving the lynch away from Devotary (who is being voted on for no in-game reason)."

Bugsy (Replying to the different parts of Len's Post):

Spoiler

 

3 hours ago, Bugsy said:

 

....okay? I'm not sure what you're going for.

...in the post you quote I literally said "Wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well?"

I don't know where you're getting your thoughts that I said the Elims have no incentive to vote. I said they have no incentive to direct the vote. I elaborated on that here:

What I did with Araris goes directly against this.

Had I done that, I would have been both the originator of the suspicion and the first voter, in 2 separate posts. There's no way that would be beneficial, at all. Targets of opportunity become targets of opportunity because they have an appearance of consensus behind them. What you propose would just make me appear to be tunneling. 

I'd disagree that the "set up" was in any way opportunistic. What actual advantage did it convey? It's not as if it set me up to vote later; I could have voted later anyways, and this just would have drawn twice the attention to it - once in my original post, and again in my post with the actual vote. Also, I'd note that my entire point is that Elims don't want to provide the "opportunistic set-up". They wait for someone else to provide the basis for a vote and follow up on someone else's suspicion, divorcing themselves from the responsibility and creating a false sense of consensus. I did exact opposite.

I fully admitted it wasn't a good reason, hence why I didn't vote.

If I hadn't included the comment and then "literally nothing else" happened this cycle, as I said in the original post, then there would be nothing stopping me from following through without the advance warning. If something did happen, then I wouldn't have voted on him at all and would have avoided the extra attention. There is no feasible reason for me to do this as an eliminator. As an eliminator, it can only be a burden. As a villager, however, that let me demonstrate my attentions to the village, which doesn't help me individually but would arguably help us as a whole. The village begins with an information disadvantage. Sharing our thought processes can only help, where with eliminators it's a far more risky proposition. That is why I included the statement, not because it provided me any semblance of advantage.

 

Rand: " Araris is taking a bit of heat because he suddenly voted you without explanation, while if he'd had a prior suspicion stated, he could easily point back to that when making the vote as an explanation. So it's definitely in the elims interest to seem to be working towards a vote, rather than just jump on the nearest available bandwagon. "

3 hours ago, Bugsy said:

He could also have given the explanation in the post giving the vote, no? I see why providing an explanation helps, but fail to see why doing so well in advance does, I suppose. Like I said, I think the fact that the elim would essentially be voting twice for the same person, drawing more attention, outweighs any benefit you might get.

 

3 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I think Bugsy is being misunderstood here- he’s not actually attributing real suspicion to Araris for his comment, merely pointing something out, and the subsequent attack on him for pointing out something to Araris as a clarification is slightly disconcerting. I particularly don’t like the way Len jumped on him after his comments, and his suspicion of Bugsy reads as more opportunistic than Bugsy’s “suspicion” of Araris. I also fall closer to Bugsy’s view on Elim behavior- they generally want to take a backseat and cut ties to their fellow teammates, not push mislynches on villagers that they in turn may be killed for. 

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

Bugsy's accusation of Araris didn't put him on the vote tally, but by making a NAI or slightly-village move look evil he threw suspicion Araris' way and set himself up for a vote later if an Araris lynch got going, without putting him in a position to take flak if Araris flipped village.

 

1 hour ago, Bugsy said:

You are aware I was asked about what I thought of it, yes? I quoted the asking post in my own, so I'm not sure how you missed it if not. When people ask me questions, I'm going to be honest and thorough. That's why I mentioned it.

This seems more like an accusation of convenience than a legitimately meant one. Why are you voting for me for responding to a question fully? Also, why did you neglect to consider the fact that it was a response to a question in your support for your vote?

 

A VERY loose and unformatted collection of posts.

EDIT: Has Bugsy even voted?

Edited June 3, 2018 by Roadwalker

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

After reviewing minimally, since I'm having difficulty in comprehending the discussion at the moment, I have come to a few obvious conclusions.

1. Roadwalker is apparently Max, I have a village read on him (separate from his roleclaim, but that helps).

2. Bugsy, Araris, and Len are top suspicions, or at least the loudest suspicions. After looking through the abbreviated evidence, particularly Road's, I'm not quite suspicious of Bugsy. Len is contributing nicely, but his arguments don't seem quite right. It's not something I can quite fall behind, but I don't think its skewampus enough to be Elim. It is D1, after all.

3. I have not posted at all, which I have now remedied.

Based on conclusion number 2, I feel my vote would be most effective if directed towards one of those three. Since Len doesn't seem evil enough, and Bugsy doesn't seem that evil either, Araris is the most Elim-y of them. Also, after looking at a few of his posts, he varies from condemning certain behavior, then using the same behavior to justify his argument. A bit hypocritical of him, and helps ease my conscience in placing my vote.

[Araris Valerian]

@Hemalurgic Headshot What did I do that you found suspicious? I think I condemned Bugsy talking about a 49% village read, as opposed to making a decision and voting based on it. I, on the other hand, took my 49% village read of Bugsy and said that was enough for me to kill him. I'm not sure what is hypocritical about that.

(I do concede that voting for Bugsy the first time, because he is a pirate, was hypocritical)

Edited June 3, 2018 by Araris Valerian

[Araris Valerian]

I guess enough people are reading the thread that I'll post this separately.

Quote

I didn't really have time to explain my vote on Bugsy, since I made it right before I went to bed, but his post about me seemed to be hedging unnecessarily. A 1% change in alignment read isn't helping anyone out, so why even mention it?

Also, @Mr Doctor, it's Day 1. We kinda have to be willing to vote for someone with minimal justification. When I said "someone must lead", I was referring to voting on somebody with the intent to kill them, rather than a poke vote (or Bugsy leading us as the first lynchee).

Emphasis by MarkIV

The difference here is that I voted, and Bugsy didn't. Maybe a better thing to have said was, "A 1% change in alignment read isn't making any effort to convince the village of anything."

[Kidpen]

You know that time I said I’d be able to post my thoughts? That’s probably not gonna happen. Unless I’m very lucky. For the record, I’d feel pretty bad about lynching Araris since he was lynched quickly the last couple games. Not gonna store me if I decide he is the best target though.

Edit: Alright, quick thoughts. I don't think anything here is all that game changing. I find it rather likely that everyone involved is village. So, I will instead tag the people who have not posted

@Rathmaskal
@Val
@ElephantEarwax
@the other people who I forgot about.

 

Edited June 3, 2018 by Kidpen

[Sart]

"AH HA!"

"You fools think you awe so cwevew. Howevew, I have deduced that Roadwalker is not in fact a piwate. Thewefowe, we must attack, because miwacles do not happen fow piwates at a wate cowwesponding to non-piwates."

[Kidpen]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

"AH HA!"

"You fools think you awe so cwevew. Howevew, I have deduced that Roadwalker is not in fact a piwate. Thewefowe, we must attack, because miwacles do not happen fow piwates at a wate cowwesponding to non-piwates."

Incan wondewed what this means.

[Walin]

If I die tonight, let everyone know that eagerness is what killed me.

I joined so fast I went back in time to kill my history project which used a time machine. This is what broke the time machine, sending all historical figures (who had ridden in it) back to their own time, and sending another version of myself into the castle during the battle.

And then paradoxes, thus I got lynched.

Ow in othew woods, I bwoke time, so time kiwwed me in wevenge.

[Snipexe]

10 minutes ago, Sart said:

"AH HA!"

"You fools think you awe so cwevew. Howevew, I have deduced that Roadwalker is not in fact a piwate. Thewefowe, we must attack, because miwacles do not happen fow piwates at a wate cowwesponding to non-piwates."

I’m echoing Kidpen here, how....?

[Steeldancer]

Vote count: 

Walin (1): Mark IV

Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Val, Fifth

Bugsy (2): Elenion, Araris

Araris (3): Eternum, Mr Doctor, HH

Elenion (1): Bugsy

CadCom (1): Randuir

Roadwalker (1) Sart

[Walin]

Is Bort not a voter? Everyone’s vote count doesn’t count Bort’s vote on me, unless it was cancelled. Lemme check.

 

 Also, Steel, I think that iocaine powder selections only result in neither or both people dying. Is that correct? Should we have a “I drink the other’s cup” but no “I poison my cup”?

That’d be more balanced, methinks, unless the current method is indeed balanced.

It’s been an excellent adventure with you all; see you in the aftermath if I don’t get revived.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Yet another vote tally:

Araris(4): Eternum, Doc12, Mr Doctor, HH
Walin(2): Mark, Bort
Bugsy(2): Araris, Elenion
Devotary(2): Val, Fifth
Roadwalker(1): Sart
CadCom(1): Randuir
Elenion(1): Bugsy
Bort(1): Devotary

I note that both Mark and Bort have voted for Walin because he is at the top of the player list. I'm not so sure about Araris. From what I've seen from previous games, he seems willing to vote aggressively during the early cycles without significant suspicions. I don't believe his vote for Bugsy is worth lynching Araris for.

It seems Sart is voting for Roadwalker on the basis that Roadwalker isn't a pirate. @Sart, are you saying you disbelieve his claim of being Miracle Max, or that you want to lynch Max because he has to revive a higher percentage of elims than villagers? 

Unless Sart has evidence that Roadwalker has false-claimed, I would not want to go after someone who claimed neutral. Instead, I wiww vote Bort, fow pwacing a second vote on Wawin. It is possibwe Bort mewewy missed Mawk making the same vote for identicaw weasoning, but it's stiww odd.

[Kidpen]

Sart, for weirdness. @Sart, you have 24 minutes and 20 seconds to convince me otherwise.

[Mr Doctor]

3 minutes ago, Walin said:

Also, Steel, I think that iocaine powder selections only result in neither or both people dying. Is that correct? Should we have a “I drink the other’s cup” but no “I poison my cup”?

No, there is only one poisoned cup, as I understand it. The cup that gets poisoned is determined by the choice of whomever comes first on the scoreboard out of the two people. The person who chooses is the second person on the scoreboard.

[Snipexe]

sart @Sart, I want answers!

[Sart]

Sowwy for slurring my words. Since Day 1 is often chaotic, I decided to go after a supposed neutral player. I don't like Miracle Max in this game for several reasons. One, he is a neutral player, which means he will be pitting both sides against one another. More importantly, he delays the game. Suppose we lynch or kill an eliminator. Miracle Max then has an incentive to bring that eliminator back from the dead. The next day, we would then have to lynch the eliminator, wasting valuable time. That didn't seem fun to me, so I decided to vote for Roadwalker. Plus, if he is telling the truth, we haven't killed a pirate. At the very least, it was interesting to see your reactions.

[Fifth Scholar]

I’ll retract from Devotary because my joke vote puts her closer to death than I realized. I suppose I’ll cement the vote on Araris Valerian, to hopefully get solid information to work with from the huge Bugsy debate.

[Kidpen]

4 minutes ago, Sart said:

Sowwy for slurring my words. Since Day 1 is often chaotic, I decided to go after a supposed neutral player. I don't like Miracle Max in this game for several reasons. One, he is a neutral player, which means he will be pitting both sides against one another. More importantly, he delays the game. Suppose we lynch or kill an eliminator. Miracle Max then has an incentive to bring that eliminator back from the dead. The next day, we would then have to lynch the eliminator, wasting valuable time. That didn't seem fun to me, so I decided to vote for Roadwalker. Plus, if he is telling the truth, we haven't killed a pirate. At the very least, it was interesting to see your reactions.

I'll Sart, but I don't like these reasons very much. I'm outa time though, so no discussion for today

 

[Steeldancer]

The day is over! The new day should be up in a minute

[Steeldancer]

Night One: Tiww Deaph do us pawht

"Awawis, the man in the massive hat, was heading down to da kichen, to get a nice dwink. He had one job- to mawwy the pwince and pwincess. And instead, he got wushed thwough. It simpwy wasn't faiw! 
In the kitchen, he found a bawweh of the good stuff, and got a big cup."
"Grandpa, are you sure the priest would be drinking?"
"Hush, Alvron, I'm trying to tell the story."
"So as pwiest awawis took a long swig, a gwoup of piwates came in the woom, who wewe also weally thiwsty."
"Grandpa, why are you reading this all like that?"
"Because I want to. Do you want me to continue reading or not?"
"Fine. Just kill him off quickly."
"And so, they looked at Awawis who was hoawding the dwink, and they got angwy. 'Get away from that, you drunk priest!'
Awawis did not wespond, and the piwates- being piwates- killed him."
"Finally, he's dead."
"Alvron, I think you're the only one who doesn't find him hilarious."
"Only when he dies."

Araris has been lynched! He is Mostly Dead. 

Walin (2): Mark IV, Bort
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Val
Bugsy (1): Elenion,
Araris (5): Eternum, Mr Doctor, HH, Doc12, Fifth Scholar
Elenion (1): Bugsy
CadCom (1): Randuir
Roadwalker(2): Sart, Araris
Bort (1): Devotary
Sart(1):Snipexe

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)

3. Elephant Earwax (Maw Wiage)

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Mostly Dead

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle) 

7. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks)

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz)

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd)

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund)

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable)

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Coop772 (Kay Oss)

24. Mark IV (Mark)

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)