Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I think that Wilson can do that because she's a mod.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

50 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Quote

Wow! So this means Araris is a Cultist right? Aman said he was using it on Araris, and Araris is still alive. Aman posted at the very end of the Night Pyro.

And hey, maybe Aman will still survive for a while now that he's in Elantris, and so his power isn't as harmful to the Jeskeri!

Feels too excited. Additionally, he'd the first to mention at this point that Aman targeted Araris. Everyone else before him had been wondering who Aman targeted. Now, the cultists aren't the only people who would've known that Aman likely targeted Araris, and I believe a village Lopen would've known as well, but this post feels like he's intentionally trying to ingratiate himself to the village by offering this information and clearly a Jeskeri would never do such a thing to their own teammate.

[truncated]

Thoughts?

Still undecided on the rest of your case, but I agree that this post by Lopen feels wrong. Too excited, as you say. Also, if Lopen was convinced that Araris was a cultist, why not vote on it? Why wait to see if the lynch gains momentum?

I was meaning to call Lopen on this in an analysis post yesterday, but I was preoccupied with other stuff IRL.

1 minute ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I think that Wilson can do that because she's a mod.

You can multiquote from one thread and it will carry over if you go to a different thread.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

But you can't quote from locked threads.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Point.

[Lord Meeker he/him]

 

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

To sum up, most of Lopen's posts are either indicative of him having more knowledge than a regular villager should have (particularly knowledge about alignment) or they are geared to make him seem more village and get people trusting him/other players who likely aren't village. I will be voting for Lopen during the day.

Thoughts?

Nice job! I agree. This does bring some thinks to light about Lopen! Made me think...

Edited April 15, 2018 by Mraize

[Lord Meeker he/him]

My bad. Trying to edit a post ad submitted 2x

Edited April 15, 2018 by Mraize

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Okay. Since I'm bored and this night hasn't been very lively, I'm going to try to liven it up a little more. 

I think Lopen is a Cultist. In fact, I'm rather convinced of it.

Here is my case:

Loren tried to stay the bandwagon on Eternum, and when it shifted to Rand and multiple people voted with the clear reasoning that it was just a bandwagon vote with no real reasoning behind, Lopen still feel the need to put suck a detailed explanation. To me, this feels like he know Rand was going to flip village and he felt he needed to explain his middle-of-the-pack-perfect-place-for-an-eliminator vote so it wouldn't come back to bite him. Even though he'd wanted a bandwagon.

Feels too excited. Additionally, he'd the first to mention at this point that Aman targeted Araris. Everyone else before him had been wondering who Aman targeted. Now, the cultists aren't the only people who would've known that Aman likely targeted Araris, and I believe a village Lopen would've known as well, but this post feels like he's intentionally trying to ingratiate himself to the village by offering this information and clearly a Jeskeri would never do such a thing to their own teammate.

I've already mentioned this before, and while Lopen had said that he feels Len is village from it and wasn't trying to say anyone either way, I get a very strong misleading vibe from this post. The tone of it reads, to me, like "I know Len is village but I don't want others trusting him so I'm going to try to make people think that this comment makes Len more suspicious rather than less."

I dislike how he's saying we can trust most Jeskeri scans here. We started with about 3 Derethi pendants, which makes sense since the pendants directly correlate to the Derethi win con, so you don't want more pendants because things will be easier for the Derethi. Balance says a lower number. Korathi and Jeskeri, though, can be a little higher. I suspect that at least half of the Jeskeri have Korathi pendants. This explains why they weren't worried about Aman. They did not poison him (probably). But they also didn't attack him, which says that they do not view him as a threat, and that tells me that they have sufficient coverage to protect themselves from priest scans. So anyone saying that we can trust scans that show up as Jeskeri seem suspicious to me, since they could very easily be writing to get themselves and most of their team trusted while killing off villagers with Jeskeri pendants.

In terms of numbers, by the way, I think we have one or two more Jeskeri pendants than we have Jeskeri, for the exact reason Lopen pointed out: the pendants some kill Jeskeri. They kill villagers. And while the vigilante success rate is higher than the lynch success rate, it's still less than 40% last I checked. So the odds are high that villagers will be killing villagers and helping the Jeskeri out.

 

Maybe it's just me but I've never really liked jokes like this. They feel false, generally.

I hinted at this during the day when I said this probably wasn't the best idea (which Lopen conveniently just quoted), but to expand on that in the case on Lopen. As I said, it's not the best idea anyway, since eliminators defend villagers all the time, but it seems like the perfect way to get villagers trusting eliminators. He fits the group he's talking about. He admits he does. This makes him seem village, and I believe that's exactly why he did it. So he could seem village. But there's a difference between someone doing something to seem village and doing something because they are village, and it's that distinction that's important.

To sum up, most of Lopen's posts are either indicative of him having more knowledge than a regular villager should have (particularly knowledge about alignment) or they are geared to make him seem more village and get people trusting him/other players who likely aren't village. I will be voting for Lopen during the day.

Thoughts?

I kinda thought this might be coming...

My detailed explanation about my switch to Rand was slightly because I was worried he'd flip village and my vote would be scrutinized. You and Aman both wanted to lynch Rand, and I didn't think we'd get any other bandwagon to save Bort at that point since you both are very convincing in your accusations, so I voted for the player I thought was more likely to be an eliminator. That was the biggest reason I switched my vote. The reasoning I laid out afterwards was kind of me convincing myself it was worth it. If you'll go back to where I posted my reads, I believe I had Rand as slightly village, so I wasn't crazy about him as the target, but my D1 reads aren't all that accurate, so if 2 players whose abilities to catch eliminators I respect say they both suspect the same player by D1, and my vote can help save someone I strongly think is village, I'll go for it even if it might get me suspected if I'm wrong.

I don't think I can really say much about the post where I mention Aman targeted Araris. I can say that I was slightly suspicious of Araris and mentioned that about an hour before the Night ended, so when I got back online like, 15 minutes after the new Cycle was posted, I went back and saw that Aman had targeted Araris and that Araris hadn't died, hence my excitement. I'm not sure if this really contributed, but I PM'd Aman on D1 along with Pyro, Bort, and Kidpen, and Aman said he was considering using the Pendant on one of us, so I was also glad he hadn't decided to use it on me.

I think I mentioned that I think a decent amount of the Jeskeri are hidden from scans as well. The part that I'd disagree with is having more Jeskeri Pendants than Jeskeri. That, to me, seems like too much power for the village. I understand that they'd be helping the Jeskeri when they kill villagers, but if they were fairly accurate with them, it could end the game fairly fast, which hurts the Gyorn's chances. So because I don't think there are that many more Jeskeri Pendants out there, I think any scans that turn up Jeskeri are worth pursuing to some degree, which is why I mentioned that. I do think it's a fair point to be brought up though, and I could be convinced otherwise, considering we've already uncovered 2 Jeskeri Pendants and we're only at the 2nd Night. In my defense, I put it up to discussion, but no one responded to it until just now. It's not like it was an actual discussion and I was actively trying to convince people we should trust any Jeskeri scans. I thought that because people brought up Amans scans, we should discuss what we wanted to do if he got a scan showing Jeskeri.

I tried to keep discussion alive during the Day, but it seems like all of the things I brought up caused you to be even more suspicious of me. I was trying to prove to Aman I wasn't the Gyorn, and revealed my role to do it. I'm trying to remove myself as an obstacle to the village, which is something I think every villager should be trying to do. My philosophy of how to play is to 1. Try to find the opponents and 2. If you fail at that, at least remove yourself as a suspect so others can do number 1 easier.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

 

To sum up, most of Lopen's posts are either indicative of him having more knowledge than a regular villager should have (particularly knowledge about alignment) or they are geared to make him seem more village and get people trusting him/other players who likely aren't village. I will be voting for Lopen during the day.

I feel like this is very tunnel-y to say. Stating your opinions about my posts like fact, rather than simply your opinion, and stating your vote for the next Day will be me, as if your mind can't be changed.

In response to Drake, putting a vote on Araris so early could have scared off any eliminators from trying to defend him. If I think there's a very high chance someone is an eliminator, better to just downplay my suspicion and see if the other eliminators will try and convince me otherwise than to state I'm certain someone is an eliminator and cause the other eliminators to bus them, which makes it harder to find future leads. In this particular case, I don't think it would matter either way, since it was very clear Araris was doomed, but it's just my general policy not to jump on a bandwagon immediately.

[Herowannabe he/him]

5 hours ago, Mraize said:

Very interesting to say the least. Also @Herowannabe is the timer longer than usually because it is a Sunday or am I just going crazy?

Yeah I realized today that I messed up the countdown timer and the night phase should be ending tonight. Unfortunately (?) I have family stuff tonight and will not be avalaible at rollover time, and it wouldn’t be fair to my co-GMs to ask them to take over everything with less than 2 hours’ notice. So...

PSA: This night cycle is officially extended for 24 hours. The countdown timer in the first post is correct. 

[Jondesu he/him]

Quintus glanced down at the small piece of metal in his hand. He’d used medallions before, though this was somewhat unique in taking the form of a pair of spectacles, or rather just the frame of them. Plenty of metal for storage if you knew how to use it, though. 

He’d never seen one quite like this before. It had been passed to him quite mysteriously, but authenticated at the highest levels and by sources he trusted. He was gaining something of a reputation, it seemed. 

The Human Kandra. 

He wasn’t sure if he should be flattered or put down by the nickname. After all, his ability was nowhere near as impressive as a kandra’s. He could merely affect his appearance in some ways, but not completely take on a new identity. Not take apart his body completely and recreate it. 

Although, if this medallion was what it claimed, he supposed he was getting one step closer. A man know as ANGUS had seen a threat he needed to address, Quintus had been told, and therefore had left this for the one he knew could take his place in the meantime. The pay would be substantial, in exchange for great risk. Risk that was mostly mitigated by...certain events in Quintus’ past, but some risk nevertheless. 

He brushed aside the worries and breathed. Not a Breath, sadly, but just to center himself. Fully prepared, he set his mind on changing himself with his mindset, and then Tapped the medallion.

ANGUS stepped forward moments later. Short, portly, and ready for action. He slipped on his spectacles and glanced around, surprised to realize that he no longer thought of himself as Quintus. Tapping Identity while drawing on his Divine Breath has been far more effective than anticipated. He smiled. This should be fun.

[br]

For the record, while I’m available to step in for Kynedath, I haven’t received their role PM or anything, so this is simply a character intro. I shall attempt to be ANGUS for all intents and purposes, rather than Quintus, though some of him will likely slip through as well.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I've been developing a suspicion of my own for the past two cycles. Look at all the recent quotes from Devotary of Spontaneity.

Unfortunately, I'm not technically sophisticated, so I can't also get quotes from the past day cycle. Suffice to say, all of his recent posts have been technical. Either describing the rules, noting something that's happening, or answering questions. It's all been helpful. Now, being helpful is great, but it's also a good way to not get accused by anyone. After all, if you don't throw suspicions and accusations around, who would ever accuse you of being evil? It's the perfect way to be active yet still fly under the radar. Thoughts?

*Note, never played with Devotary before, so it could just be his play style. 

P.S. Sorry for the double post

I remember a few games back he was an eliminator and I was accusing him of the same exact thing. I can't really recall his games as a villager though, so it could just be his play style. I went and looked through his posts, and really couldn't form an opinion either way.

5 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Lopen also over-focused on the Gyorn in our PM, and Aman is moderately suspicious of him.

@Orlok Tsubodai, read the PM I sent you.  I think you will like it 

As I mentioned in the thread, I was Gyorn hunting.  I'll likely focus on the Jeskeri during the Day and the Gyorn at Night. The only reason I was focusing on the Gyorn this last Day was because we'd already decided the lynch, so my accusations would've been toothless.

Maybe I'll message one of the Elantrians during the Day so he can explain his suspicion to me then. Unless you know his reasons for suspecting me? If you do, I can respond to them right now.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Gut, and you are one of the potential evil Seon holders.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

6 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Gut, and you are one of the potential evil Seon holders.

Fair enough. What other Seon holders do we know of? There's me, you, Kidpen, Bort(villager), and Devotary...I think that's everyone. I can't remember anyone else mentioning having a Seon. Out of that group, I think I'd be most suspicious of Devotary. Pyro and Kidpen are giving me conflicting reads, but at the moment I think I'm leaning slightly village for both of them.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

And Wilson.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

She's got Bort's Seon, so it doesn't count in terms of figuring out which of the original Seon holders could be evil.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Oh.  I missed that.  If anyone has a PM with Aman currently, will you please ask him what his list is?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Unfortunately, I'm not technically sophisticated, so I can't also get quotes from the past day cycle. Suffice to say, all of his recent posts have been technical. Either describing the rules, noting something that's happening, or answering questions. It's all been helpful. Now, being helpful is great, but it's also a good way to not get accused by anyone. After all, if you don't throw suspicions and accusations around, who would ever accuse you of being evil? It's the perfect way to be active yet still fly under the radar. Thoughts?

I do prefer making observations to putting together analysis. This is generally the same for me regardless of alignment. I've never been one to post suspicions lists, though I can try to do so if you want. 

11 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Fair enough. What other Seon holders do we know of? There's me, you, Kidpen, Bort(villager), and Devotary...I think that's everyone. I can't remember anyone else mentioning having a Seon. Out of that group, I think I'd be most suspicious of Devotary. Pyro and Kidpen are giving me conflicting reads, but at the moment I think I'm leaning slightly village for both of them.

Eternum has also claimed to be a Seon holder, on page 25 on the locked thread.

Quote

I can confirm this. I asked him too, and Aman told me the same thing. No name, only alignment.

 

[little wilson she/her]

I actually started with my own Seon too. Didn't realize it until Cycle 2 though, when I inherited Bort's. To my knowledge, there is one more Seon holder, and they are the player Aman scanned last cycle.

[Herowannabe he/him]

So at my family thing- my cousin's 30th birthday party- we actually ended up playing Werewolves/Mafia, and I wasn't even the one who suggested it. 

In the first game we played I was one of the Mafia, and after the very first night when everyone started discussing who they thought was Mafia my 5-year old daughter bursts out, "I saw you daddy I know it was you!"  Needless to say, I promptly got lynched. 

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

For the record, while I’m available to step in for Kynedath, I haven’t received their role PM or anything, so this is simply a character intro. I shall attempt to be ANGUS for all intents and purposes, rather than Quintus, though some of him will likely slip through as well.

Welcome @Jondesu, and thank you for stepping in! FYI, ANGUS is an Elantrian, so from here on out I'll have to ask you not to post in the main thread, but I'll send you the role PM and Elantris PM right now if one of my co-GMs hasn't done so already. 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I do prefer making observations to putting together analysis. This is generally the same for me regardless of alignment. I've never been one to post suspicions lists, though I can try to do so if you want. 

Eternum has also claimed to be a Seon holder, on page 25 on the locked thread.

 

I don't think doing a list is necessary if you don't like doing that sort of thing. As long as you're posting and voting, there'll be things about you to analyze. We've really only had 1 Day of lynch discussion, so it's no surprise you haven't done something that firmly points people one way or another. There's a lot of other players I have no idea about.

Thanks, I had missed that.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

I actually started with my own Seon too. Didn't realize it until Cycle 2 though, when I inherited Bort's. To my knowledge, there is one more Seon holder, and they are the player Aman scanned last cycle.

Okay, cool. Updated list of who's got a Seon then:

Wilson - I'm leaning village fairly strongly.
Pyro - Slight village lean
Kidpen - Slight village lean
Lopen - VILLAGE
Devotary - Neutral
Eternum - Unsure. I was leaning elim early, but one of his posts from Night 1 that I read over a while ago changed my mind somewhat. I think he was suspicious of Bort a little bit, and that didn't seem like a stance an eliminator would have taken at that point, and especially not if they had already planned to kill him that Night.

Okay, decided to not be lazy and find it. Here's the post by Eternum on Night 1:

Quote

All I had on Araris at the time was a gut read, and you were relatively more active, thus I decided to focus on you. I had very little time when I posted, so I had to either do analysis on one of you or neither. You're not really off my radar yet though, because that convo between you and Aman could have easily been pre-planned. That entire thing Aman did, with roleclaiming and whatnot, could have been simply a cover. This could be me overthinking things, but it's not a possibility that should be dismissed out of hand.

However, you make a good point about Araris. I'll read what happened while I was asleep more carefully, and post any thoughts. Sure, this is a night cycle, but that's no reason to stop discussing. I'm particularly curious about how quickly the lynch moved off of me and toward Rand. It insinuates me as an elim and gets rid of a villager all in one fell swoop.

Ehhh, I can't make up my mind now that I'm looking it over again. I could see this as him trying to cast doubt on Bort, and then when he doesn't get any villagers agreeing with him, the Cultists decide to off Bort rather than try to force the issue. This post wasn't that long after the Night was posted, so it's definitely possible they hadn't decided on their kill yet. And the thing with Araris could have been him picking one of his teammates as his second suspect to gain trust if anything happened to him.

For context, here's Eternum mentioning Araris for the first time on Day 1(and only time before the above post):

Quote

I don't have much analysis to offer, and the only people that stood out to me are Araris and Bort. I'll talk about Araris later, maybe next cycle, but for now, Bort.

[reasons for suspecting Bort and then vote on Bort]

I don't want to fault someone for being too busy to expand on their suspicion, but since we now know Araris was a Cultist, I can't help but wonder if this was distancing. He mentions he's suspicious of an eliminator and a villager, and focuses on the villager. Later, he chalks up his suspicion of the eliminator up to gut(an easy out instead of trying to back up his claim with pointed analysis), and admits the villager has a point about the eliminator, but still doesn't really try to put any focus on him.

Hm. I think I might be getting a little tunnel-y myself now, so I'll just leave it at that for now. I'll almost definitely revisit this tomorrow though.

Edit: That is hilarious Hero! 

Edited April 16, 2018 by TheMightyLopen

[Kidpen he/him]

I’m curious. Why am I slightly village? 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

I’m curious. Why am I slightly village? 

Uhh, can't remember exactly what posts made me think that and am too tired to go back through all of them, but I feel like you've been generally open with your thoughts. Like, they don't seem calculated or anything.

[Elenion he/him]

I don't have much to say right now. What I can say is this: Lopen's response to Araris' death seems unnaturally perky for him, but I wouldn't have paid much attention to it if Wilson had not pointed it out. I am reading Wilson as village because of the accusation, though: it feels real. The question is whether or not it's accurate, and I'll look into that tomorrow or after turnover, because I'm on a laptop, it's late, and I'm in another game as well, so I don't think I'll be getting much good analysis out right now. This entire post is just a ramble... ah well, it is what it is.

[Eternum he/him]

Night had fallen over Kae, but cities never truly sleep. Gas and oil lamps illuminated the streets, as raucous singing emanated from many a tavern or inn. Yet many others were hushed, filled with whispers of murder, subterfuge and ultimately, fear.

The Patriarch was killed by the Derethi.

The Patriarch was killed by cultists.

The Patriarch was, apparently, killed by people ranging from figures out of legend to the shady neighbor three doors over. Some even said Elantrians were responsible, but that particular rumor was believed by very few.

Enerin sat by the window of his room in a random inn near the palace, playing a slow, pondering tune on his flute. It helped him think. He had never even bothered to read the inn's name, but he managed to get a room for free in exchange for some playing and storytelling down in the common room. 

He had been reasonably excited to listen to Patriarch Seinalan's speech. That was cut short relatively early, though. Good men had died while others tried to find the murderers.

An evil man had died, too. Others would, by the time this ended. He intended to see to that. A decade and a half of travelling through occasionally hostile lands had not kept his hands-- or the knives hidden in his sleeves and coat--clean of blood.

He had to admit to himself, however, that the "right thing" counted for very little, in his case. He could recognize a good story when he saw one. And this one in particular was his. Not only his, for he was not a fool that thought the world spun around him, but he played a crucial role. Dead men were good motivations, in stories and real life, as recent events proved. 

He continued to play well into the night, and when sunrise came, he was still playing.

------------------------------------

Okay, so, game stuff.

About Araris: A couple posts of his were piquing my interest, but it wasn't enough to analyze at that point. Joe had voted for him, though, so I decided to voice the fact that I found him shady at the very least. That's all, really. It wasn't much more than a gut read, though I had not done more than skim his posts until he was proven a cultist. At that point, his identity was a done deal.

I'm not very sure about Lopen. Wilson makes good points, and his enthusiasm when Araris was caught read really weird to me, but I'm not convinced yet. However, if I don't find a better lynch target during the day, or if one doesn't come up, I'm willing to lynch him.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Eternum

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

[RP]

------------------------------------

Okay, so, game stuff.

About Araris: A couple posts of his were piquing my interest, but it wasn't enough to analyze at that point. Joe had voted for him, though, so I decided to voice the fact that I found him shady at the very least. That's all, really. It wasn't much more than a gut read, though I had not done more than skim his posts until he was proven a cultist. At that point, his identity was a done deal.

I'm not very sure about Lopen. Wilson makes good points, and his enthusiasm when Araris was caught read really weird to me, but I'm not convinced yet. However, if I don't find a better lynch target during the day, or if one doesn't come up, I'm willing to lynch him.

Still, you say you'll talk more about Araris after the Day is over, but then all you say is that it was gut. If it was simply gut, why not just say that to begin with? That's why it feels like an elim/elim interaction to me.

This also feels like hedging to me, because you know I'll flip village if I'm lynched/killed. Villagers do this all the time though, so I don't know if I should really count it against you. It doesn't change my mind though.

Anyone else want to chime in on this?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Anyone else want to chime in on this?

If I had to cast a vote right this moment, I'd probably follow the lead of a pretty reasonable-sounding accusation, and vote for you. But I'd really rather take the time to reach my own conclusions, and I will not have time to do that properly until next turn. I think it's in everybody's interests if I chime in only once I've actually read your defense carefully.