Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

@Herowannabe, can we confirm their are no GM mistakes on this tally?

It might be an Elantrian secret or something...

[King Cole he/him]

Yeah, I definitely didn't vote, but can't the princess/prince only change the votes of the Monarch? Or am I misremembering?

[Herowannabe he/him]

15 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

King Cole's vote was shifted onto Araris, Pyromancer's vote was shifted onto Dalinar, Lopen's vote vanished, and Araris has two extra votes than are indicated by the vote tally. Cole didn't vote, so that's probably the work of a prince/princess. The vote on HH is probably a legitamate vote by Droughtbringer. I don't see how Pyromancer's vote ended up on Dalinar, nor how Lopen's vote vanished. Both of them did vote for Araris, so it couldn't have been a prince, and I don't know of any ability that removes a player's name from the voting tally. 

Pyromancer's vote was a mistake- it got recorded wrong in the spreadsheet and we didn't catch it. Everything else is correct (to the best of my knowledge).

[Kidpen he/him]

2 minutes ago, King Cole said:

Yeah, I definitely didn't vote, but can't the princess/prince only change the votes of the Monarch? Or am I misremembering?

You are misremembering. They can hijack any ones vote, and if they do to the Monarch they get the double vote.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

They can only change the vote of someone who didn't vote.

[Lord Meeker he/him]

14 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Kidpen's vote caused one of the extra votes, and the other one was caused either by a second monarch or someone who had the secret passphrase. I'm far more confused by how Pyromancer's vote was moved and why Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally.

Can there be multiple monarchs? or why did her cote count as two? I am confused.

[Kidpen he/him]

1 minute ago, Mraize said:

Can there be multiple monarchs? or why did her cote count as two? I am confused.

What? My vote was two cause I'm a monarch. There are most likely multiple monarchs, although I could maybe be the only one.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Lopen voted for Araris in this post, and never retracted. Yet, Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally. Do you know anything about this, @TheMightyLopen?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Dula?

[Kidpen he/him]

Just now, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Dula?

I would think the name would still appear, just the number would go down.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Lovers?

Is this a GM mistake?

Edited April 15, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

17 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lopen voted for Araris in this post, and never retracted. Yet, Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally. Do you know anything about this, @TheMightyLopen?

That it was a plan very poorly handled on my part. :/

I'm a Prince with a Seon. I PM'd Pyro and told him I was a Prince and was going to prove it this Cycle to help narrow down who the Gyorn could be. As I did 3 actions(Seon, Prince, and vote), according to Hero's clarification, my vote is the action that gets cancelled. I was hoping since the votes were a non-issue this Cycle no one would notice, but noooo, you guys have to point it out straightaway and try to figure it out, as if it's relevant.

Interesting to note, however, I was the only player to not have a vote down at the end of the Cycle. That's a weird feeling for me.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Soren Porfiry was a very intelligent man. Hs intelligence, unfortunately, often led to more thinking than doing, which would be fine if he wasn't the deputy chief scribe of the court. It all began as the youngest son of a minor noble, which allowed him to get an education. Despite his extraordinary laziness, often resulting in assignments being written mere hours before they were due, he scored excellently on test after test. His teachers soon recommended him to the court due to his excellent writing skills. The court system was designed on merit, the goal being to give the highest positions to those of the most skill. Porfiry soon found it was far easy to take and pass the tests to rise in the ranks than it was to actually do the work. After taking a couple weeks "getting used to" the new job, he simply took the next test and started the process all over again. He never had really to ask what the position he was moving to or from was, after all, that would only force him to actually do work. As long as he was being paid to take tests life was good.

Then the day came when he ran out of tests to take. Having risen all the way to the second of the top of the administrative ladder would have made many jealous, but it just made Porfiry scared. Now he'd actually have to do work. Looking around his small office, mountains of papers had built up over the passing days as he'd moped over his misfortune. He sighed a deep sigh. His excuses would only last him until morning, in which case he would be out of a job and banned from future civil service. The thought of menial labor was terrifying enough to overcome even his deep-rooted desire to do absolutely nothing.

125 tax documents to be filed. 43 letters to write. 45 court statements to be reviewed. 278 documents to review. 67 copies to be made. All of these to be filed and organized.

It was going to be a late night.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Dalinar Kholin

[Herowannabe he/him]

By the way everyone, I should let you know that Kynedath has had to withdraw from this game for personal reasons. We’re working on getting him a pinch hitter but in the meantime he’s unable to maintain activity. @Kynedath we wish you the best!

As a reminder, if @Jondesu is able to step in then that used up our last volunteer pinch hitter. So please do what you can to keep up with the game and keep playing and plotting and killing each other for our amusement and having fun, even if it’s just a random post or two here and there. Thanks!

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

12 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

That it was a plan very poorly handled on my part. :/

I'm a Prince with a Seon. I PM'd Pyro and told him I was a Prince and was going to prove it this Cycle to help narrow down who the Gyorn could be. As I did 3 actions(Seon, Prince, and vote), according to Hero's clarification, my vote is the action that gets cancelled. I was hoping since the votes were a non-issue this Cycle no one would notice, but noooo, you guys have to point it out straightaway and try to figure it out, as if it's relevant.

Interesting to note, however, I was the only player to not have a vote down at the end of the Cycle. That's a weird feeling for me.

I’m not saying I don’t believe you, but I just want to point out that (assuming I read the rules right) the same results could theoretically be produced using a pass-phrase.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

He did claim to me.

[Lord Meeker he/him]

Very interesting to say the least. Also @Herowannabe is the timer longer than usually because it is a Sunday or am I just going crazy?

[Kidpen he/him]

Quick PSA to all current and future Elantrians: If you become hoed, you can choose the words "Blowzy night frumps vex'd Jack" (assuming contractions and pronouns are aloud) and then communicated with italics or acrostic stuff because it only misses the letter Q. It's super unwieldy, but if you have something crazy important you can say it this way.

[Elenion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Quick PSA to all current and future Elantrians: If you become hoed, you can choose the words "Blowzy night frumps vex'd Jack" (assuming contractions and pronouns are aloud) and then communicated with italics or acrostic stuff because it only misses the letter Q. It's super unwieldy, but if you have something crazy important you can say it this way.

Someone said it earlier, but Morse code would work. For your words choose dot, dash, and space. For example dot dot dot space dash dash dash space dot dot dot would be SOS, if I remember my Morse code right.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

That was me

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

I’m not saying I don’t believe you, but I just want to point out that (assuming I read the rules right) the same results could theoretically be produced using a pass-phrase.

That's true I guess. It would mean I had the secret passphrase and was working with the Prince who moved King Cole's vote.

Quote

I'm....not sure that's a wise course of action, actually. Through Aman's comment alone about how obvious it was that Bort was village after he outed Aman to the thread and that the lynch needs to change, that's enough to get some villagers looking at Bort and judging him for themselves. At that point, the Jeskeri could easily have decided they'll kill him during the night and then they could say in the thread that he's village and try to move the lynch, looking like village when doing it. Therefore, looking at who were active proponents in saying Bort was village is not a surefire way to find villagers. But I would say it's a good way to trust an eliminator.

I'm not suggesting anyone completely trusts the players who defended Bort, but I do think it was more of a village thing to do, so any eliminators who gain some trust from it deserve it, IMO. I respect everyone in SE enough that one village-looking action isn't going to entirely persuade me they couldn't be a murderous Cultist.

[little wilson she/her]

Okay. Since I'm bored and this night hasn't been very lively, I'm going to try to liven it up a little more. 

I think Lopen is a Cultist. In fact, I'm rather convinced of it.

Here is my case:

On 4/11/2018 at 7:53 PM, TheMightyLopen said:

Rand, huh? I would really hate to be wrong, partly because he's usually so active and partly because I think the last game I played with him he was lynched C1 and I enjoy playing with him, but I do think Bort is more likely to be village than Rand at this point. Actually, the thing that I think is most suspicious about that post Aman quoted was the bit where Rand leaned village on Kidpen for that opening statement of "I'm an eliminator." Kidpen said they do that at the start of every game, so I was viewing it as completely neutral, and I don't see how it could be used as evidence why Kidpen is village, so it seems like buddying up. Eternum. Randuir.

Edited for Vote tally:

(7) Bort: Elenion, Eternum, Araris Valerian, Randuir, Arinian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kidpen,

(1) Eternum: TheYoungPyromancer,

(1) The Honey Badger: Mraize, 

(1) Araris Valerian: A Joe in the Bush, 

(1) Straw: Stink, 

(5) randuir: Amanuensis, Seonid, Hemalurgic Headshot, little wilson, TheMightyLopen

Loren tried to stay the bandwagon on Eternum, and when it shifted to Rand and multiple people voted with the clear reasoning that it was just a bandwagon vote with no real reasoning behind, Lopen still feel the need to put suck a detailed explanation. To me, this feels like he know Rand was going to flip village and he felt he needed to explain his middle-of-the-pack-perfect-place-for-an-eliminator vote so it wouldn't come back to bite him. Even though he'd wanted a bandwagon.

On 4/12/2018 at 8:41 PM, TheMightyLopen said:

Wow! So this means Araris is a Cultist right? Aman said he was using it on Araris, and Araris is still alive. Aman posted at the very end of the Night Pyro.

And hey, maybe Aman will still survive for a while now that he's in Elantris, and so his power isn't as harmful to the Jeskeri!

Feels too excited. Additionally, he'd the first to mention at this point that Aman targeted Araris. Everyone else before him had been wondering who Aman targeted. Now, the cultists aren't the only people who would've known that Aman likely targeted Araris, and I believe a village Lopen would've known as well, but this post feels like he's intentionally trying to ingratiate himself to the village by offering this information and clearly a Jeskeri would never do such a thing to their own teammate.

On 4/12/2018 at 8:49 PM, TheMightyLopen said:

If Aman did use the Pendant on Araris, meaning Araris is Jeskeri, how does this post by Elenion make you all feel?

I've already mentioned this before, and while Lopen had said that he feels Len is village from it and wasn't trying to say anyone either way, I get a very strong misleading vibe from this post. The tone of it reads, to me, like "I know Len is village but I don't want others trusting him so I'm going to try to make people think that this comment makes Len more suspicious rather than less."

On 4/14/2018 at 5:45 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

I was kind of assuming he scanned a villager/got a village result, but whatever his scan, I'm not sure how much we can trust it either way, considering we've already seen 2 Jeskeri Pendants, and if Araris is telling the truth about having a Korathi Pendant, that's 2 Korathi Pendants we're aware of(Randuir also had one). Although, since Araris probably has one, that does mean an elim scan is that much more likely to be an actual elim(because we've gotten rid of 2 Jeskeri Pendants, and a Jeskeri with a Korathi Pendant, meaning the chances of catching a Jeskeri with scans has only gone up since the game began...I think), in which case it probably would be a good idea for Aman to reveal any Jeskeri scans he gets. I feel like at least 1 or 2 Jeskeri are vulnerable to scans, but that there's still a 1 or 2 villagers who have a Jeskeri Pendant. That does seem like a lot of firepower for the village, although they can only kill villagers. I don't know, percentage wise, we've already uncovered 2 players with Jeskeri Pendants, so it seems like there should still be a couple out there.

I'm just going in circles now. xD I wanted to do more Gyorn hunting, but my brain isn't clear enough to do analysis I'd trust, so I'm heading off.

I dislike how he's saying we can trust most Jeskeri scans here. We started with about 3 Derethi pendants, which makes sense since the pendants directly correlate to the Derethi win con, so you don't want more pendants because things will be easier for the Derethi. Balance says a lower number. Korathi and Jeskeri, though, can be a little higher. I suspect that at least half of the Jeskeri have Korathi pendants. This explains why they weren't worried about Aman. They did not poison him (probably). But they also didn't attack him, which says that they do not view him as a threat, and that tells me that they have sufficient coverage to protect themselves from priest scans. So anyone saying that we can trust scans that show up as Jeskeri seem suspicious to me, since they could very easily be writing to get themselves and most of their team trusted while killing off villagers with Jeskeri pendants.

In terms of numbers, by the way, I think we have one or two more Jeskeri pendants than we have Jeskeri, for the exact reason Lopen pointed out: the pendants some kill Jeskeri. They kill villagers. And while the vigilante success rate is higher than the lynch success rate, it's still less than 40% last I checked. So the odds are high that villagers will be killing villagers and helping the Jeskeri out.

 

On 4/14/2018 at 9:33 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

Based on that description, it was probably me.

Maybe it's just me but I've never really liked jokes like this. They feel false, generally.

21 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

This is something worth analyzing. If anyone is having trouble figuring out what to do with the lynch being decided, go back over the Day 1 lynch, and look at who strongly defended Bort somehow. Post your thoughts on who you think is village based on the idea that: "The Jeskeri killed Bort because they knew that some villagers were convinced Bort was village, meaning it would be extremely difficult to get him lynched later in the game." Try to figure out who the "some villagers" are that convinced the Jeskeri to off Bort.

Honest talk here: I was one of the first players to create a counter-wagon so Bort would survive, and here I am saying that type of thing is a village indicator, which makes it look like I'm trying to convince you I'm village in a roundabout way. I wanted to put that out there so I don't get accused of doing something shady. (Also I am totally village )

I hinted at this during the day when I said this probably wasn't the best idea (which Lopen conveniently just quoted), but to expand on that in the case on Lopen. As I said, it's not the best idea anyway, since eliminators defend villagers all the time, but it seems like the perfect way to get villagers trusting eliminators. He fits the group he's talking about. He admits he does. This makes him seem village, and I believe that's exactly why he did it. So he could seem village. But there's a difference between someone doing something to seem village and doing something because they are village, and it's that distinction that's important.

To sum up, most of Lopen's posts are either indicative of him having more knowledge than a regular villager should have (particularly knowledge about alignment) or they are geared to make him seem more village and get people trusting him/other players who likely aren't village. I will be voting for Lopen during the day.

Thoughts?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Lopen also over-focused on the Gyorn in our PM, and Aman is moderately suspicious of him.

@Orlok Tsubodai, read the PM I sent you.  I think you will like it 

Edited April 15, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Dalinar Kholin]

51 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Okay. Since I'm bored and this night hasn't been very lively, I'm going to try to liven it up a little more. 

I think Lopen is a Cultist. In fact, I'm rather convinced of it.

Here is my case:

Loren tried to stay the bandwagon on Eternum, and when it shifted to Rand and multiple people voted with the clear reasoning that it was just a bandwagon vote with no real reasoning behind, Lopen still feel the need to put suck a detailed explanation. To me, this feels like he know Rand was going to flip village and he felt he needed to explain his middle-of-the-pack-perfect-place-for-an-eliminator vote so it wouldn't come back to bite him. Even though he'd wanted a bandwagon.

Feels too excited. Additionally, he'd the first to mention at this point that Aman targeted Araris. Everyone else before him had been wondering who Aman targeted. Now, the cultists aren't the only people who would've known that Aman likely targeted Araris, and I believe a village Lopen would've known as well, but this post feels like he's intentionally trying to ingratiate himself to the village by offering this information and clearly a Jeskeri would never do such a thing to their own teammate.

I've already mentioned this before, and while Lopen had said that he feels Len is village from it and wasn't trying to say anyone either way, I get a very strong misleading vibe from this post. The tone of it reads, to me, like "I know Len is village but I don't want others trusting him so I'm going to try to make people think that this comment makes Len more suspicious rather than less."

I dislike how he's saying we can trust most Jeskeri scans here. We started with about 3 Derethi pendants, which makes sense since the pendants directly correlate to the Derethi win con, so you don't want more pendants because things will be easier for the Derethi. Balance says a lower number. Korathi and Jeskeri, though, can be a little higher. I suspect that at least half of the Jeskeri have Korathi pendants. This explains why they weren't worried about Aman. They did not poison him (probably). But they also didn't attack him, which says that they do not view him as a threat, and that tells me that they have sufficient coverage to protect themselves from priest scans. So anyone saying that we can trust scans that show up as Jeskeri seem suspicious to me, since they could very easily be writing to get themselves and most of their team trusted while killing off villagers with Jeskeri pendants.

In terms of numbers, by the way, I think we have one or two more Jeskeri pendants than we have Jeskeri, for the exact reason Lopen pointed out: the pendants some kill Jeskeri. They kill villagers. And while the vigilante success rate is higher than the lynch success rate, it's still less than 40% last I checked. So the odds are high that villagers will be killing villagers and helping the Jeskeri out.

 

Maybe it's just me but I've never really liked jokes like this. They feel false, generally.

I hinted at this during the day when I said this probably wasn't the best idea (which Lopen conveniently just quoted), but to expand on that in the case on Lopen. As I said, it's not the best idea anyway, since eliminators defend villagers all the time, but it seems like the perfect way to get villagers trusting eliminators. He fits the group he's talking about. He admits he does. This makes him seem village, and I believe that's exactly why he did it. So he could seem village. But there's a difference between someone doing something to seem village and doing something because they are village, and it's that distinction that's important.

To sum up, most of Lopen's posts are either indicative of him having more knowledge than a regular villager should have (particularly knowledge about alignment) or they are geared to make him seem more village and get people trusting him/other players who likely aren't village. I will be voting for Lopen during the day.

Thoughts?

I agree completely with the second point, it took me as too excited and just felt off. Lopen's general playstyle has felt a little different this game. This could be total speculation, but perhaps drawing more attention to himself with the goal of being scanned? It could fit with your pendant theory. I agree with the point about Len too, he never explained in the original post what he meant, just "how do you feel about this." If you hadn't posted in response it would likely have left me slightly suspicious of Elenion. Especially right now when we don't have many targets or much discussion that could be enough to make the difference.

I don't [I use really dirty language and should be ashamed of myself] the joke against him. Can't refer to stuff that happened day 1, I've only really skimmed it.

[Dalinar Kholin]

18 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

King Cole's vote was shifted onto Araris, Pyromancer's vote was shifted onto Dalinar, Lopen's vote vanished, and Araris has two extra votes than are indicated by the vote tally. Cole didn't vote, so that's probably the work of a prince/princess. The vote on HH is probably a legitamate vote by Droughtbringer. I don't see how Pyromancer's vote ended up on Dalinar, nor how Lopen's vote vanished. Both of them did vote for Araris, so it couldn't have been a prince, and I don't know of any ability that removes a player's name from the voting tally. 

I've been developing a suspicion of my own for the past two cycles. Look at all the recent quotes from Devotary of Spontaneity.

17 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Lopen voted for Araris in this post, and never retracted. Yet, Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally. Do you know anything about this, @TheMightyLopen?

Unfortunately, I'm not technically sophisticated, so I can't also get quotes from the past day cycle. Suffice to say, all of his recent posts have been technical. Either describing the rules, noting something that's happening, or answering questions. It's all been helpful. Now, being helpful is great, but it's also a good way to not get accused by anyone. After all, if you don't throw suspicions and accusations around, who would ever accuse you of being evil? It's the perfect way to be active yet still fly under the radar. Thoughts?

*Note, never played with Devotary before, so it could just be his play style. 

P.S. Sorry for the double post

Edited April 15, 2018 by Dalinar Kholin