Long Game 3: Blackwater Village

[Aspren]

Asp, relying on Gamma really is not in your favor. After all, after we kill you, and you're right, he's next on the list almost no matter what, now. If you're wrong, then we can't regard what you're saying, because it's bull crap. Tell us outright, or try and pull up some convincing argument that shows how killing you does more harm than good, and we'll talk.

 

(Categorically more harm than good. Right now, killing you leads us down a path of statistical success, right or wrong, if only because you have placed yourself in a position where we have to be right about one of you. Thanks for that, by the way.)

 

Also, by saying that you're a Seeker, you've rendered yourself useless to us. If you're legit, than the Spiked have no choice but to kill you. This is your last round, like it or not.

 

I'm saying that after I'm dead, and I'm proven to be a Vilage Seeker, then my words can be trusted. And then you'll be able to trust him fully. Obviously I don't expect you to believe me now. But after I'm dead you will.

 

My problem is that Gamma's source can safely accuse me of being Spiked, and of a role that I'm unlikely to have, when he/she is is a Seeker and should be be under just as much suspicion, or even more so, since they have accused me of having a role that I'm unlikely to have.

 

And, yes, I am effectively useless, to the extent that I would only have one more night, but you guys are wasting a one day on lynching me. And I could still seek someone during that one night.

 

And why are you trying to get me to reveal who I've seeked? If I reveal who I've seeked that the Spiked will know exactly what I've told Gamma. Currently the Spiked don't know who the second person that I've seeked is. For all they know I seeked someone, and have told Gamma that this person is innocent, and so Gamma has one more person that he can trust, or that Gamma now knows that that one person is Spiked. You're effectively asking me not only to help the Spiked by dying needlessly but to also help the Spiked just as I'm about to die by giving them the only information that I have. If Gamma, believes that you can be trusted, then he'll give you the information himself. But If you don't trust Gamma, then why the are you lynching me right now?

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Just to clear things up, I'm only withholding my Informants identity until the results of the Lynching.

Obviously is Asp is a villager, I am announcing them to everybody and letting our Coinshot (or hopefully Mistborn) do their job. I am doing this, because if Asp is a Spiked, then me revealing that identity will not be a good thing. I would be the only clean pipeline of information for them to use right now, until I could possibly get them in touch with the Villager Tineye.

But that's still all of course pending the results of the Lynching.

I'm still deliberating though on how much I trust either Asp or the mysterious informant though. But I really don't want to run the risk of killing our last Seeker just to find this out.

And to clear a few other things up, my informant has been in contact with me since the beginning of the first Day Cycle, so I was obviously their first target. And then I told them to seek only the targets I told them -- to make sure I wasn't be directed by the Spiked, just in case -- and I told them to Seek Asp at nearly the last minute after we 'decided' on another target, just to be safe.

So, yeah. Keep that in consideration in all of this, too.

(I really have no idea, at the moment. I think I have to sleep on this one.) :{

[Edgedancer he/him]

Dane had to leave th village early in the morning to make his appointment in time. The contract with Lord Prei had to be extended. The others just had to leave the coach, having them ride all the way with him would raise suspicion and having some time in private helped him to concentrate. Your friends are animals, a nobles face is not a practice target and you don´t care about any of that.

This would be one of the hardest stunts Dane might ever have pulled. Cyrus wasn´t there to nudge his emotions if he lost controll and Dane already showed signs of the stress. Could a scam be relaxing? It seemd like that for his entourage, they were more than happy to be away from the killings.

 

Prei´s mansion was a lot more empressive than the one the village build for appearance but by now Dane wasn´t impressed anymore. The servants lead him to the palour for the meeting. Don´t look at the servant and if you do do it with contempt.

Dane seated himself before Prei, cane laid against the chair.

Luckily, the meeting was over fast and mostly an exchange of formalities. Prei wasn´t a man of many words.

 

Sadly, this also means that their group was back in time for the lynching. In fact their return was a lot earlier than expected. Time seems to go by a lot slower these days.

The current situation was a lot more complex than expected.

 

Okay so either the informant or Asp is spiked. Seems like we can choose between taking a risk and killing Asp or wait a turn, maybe lynch someone else, and hope for extra info. I guess I´m not gonna vote for now.

 

Yeah leaving out the actuall dialogue is kind of cheap but I´m on a schedule here.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Edgedancer

[Grayv he/him]

Raubber walked into the bar, a bandage around his neck, muttering about filthy coinshots and their coward like attacks. "whiskey," he said as he reached the bar. Receiving his glass, he stares into it a moment before mumbling, "if i ever find out who shot me, i am going to feed their corpse to the mistwraith. dead or alive, it doesn't matter." Then he downs the whiskey in one gulp, pays for the drink, and walks out to start digging the next grave. He knew this wasn't going to be over anytime soon.

 

How much time do we have left?

[Metacognition he/him]

Unfortunately, waiting and lynching someone else isn't likely to help us. If Asp is Spiked, then he's being fed information by a Spiked Seeker. If Gamut's informant is Spiked, then they're likely a Spiked Seeker. Either way, both would be able to give us real results of their seekings. They only way to test them would be on another Spiked and we don't have a target for them in that right.

 

If Asp does turn out to be a villager, the people who don't change their vote for now are shooting up on my suspect list. The Spiked wouldn't want us to turn this bandwagon around. Of course, the reverse also holds true. If he's Spiked, those that jumped off are likely Spiked. So how confident were all of you REALLY in your vote that you caused a bandwagon?

Edited March 11, 2014 by Metacognition

[Edgedancer he/him]

We have a mistborn that didn´t seek yet, right? He could seek Asp. Then again I doubt that we could keep him alive for a prolonged periode  of time, without a dedicated lurcher, which would be hard to organize, so I´m not sure if letting him live will bringe us much in the long run anyway. If he is the spiked Mistborn he could do some damage while we let him live. (1 potential Coinshot and maybe some additional seeking.) Any good reasons why we should not just take the risk?

 

Also I´m more inclined to belive the party that took initative.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Edgedancer

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Dane's Idea seems to be the best. We have the Mistborn seek Asp, tonight, and tommorow kill either him or the Informant, so Today, I propose we Either retract our votes for Asp, or vote for Mabi (She has one vote) in Order to Force a Deadlock, though we have to be careful to not Give the Spiked The Vote. Clan, what are the odds for the Spiked having Soothers/Rioters?

[Metacognition he/him]

That means that the Mistborn would have to come forward AND if there is a Spiked Mistborn, can we really trust their judgement?

I'm pretty sure we're going to have to lynch either Asp or Gamut's informant; I just don't have to be happy about it, considering we are likely going to lose our Seeker out of it.

I suggest that if we have a Village Mistborn, they take Coinshot tonight and hopefully between them and the coinshot from last night, they'll be able to kill the Spiked if we wind up lynching our village Seeker.

[Edgedancer he/him]

If the Mistborn is spiked and gives us false information we have two spiked certain and a short while later dead for the price of a Seeker not cheap but worth it. Also, the Mistborn dosen´t have to reveal himself in the open, by this point I guess that Gamma is above suspicion, given that both Seekers confined in him.

 

Then again, way to high risk of anyone involved being spike-killed.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Edgedancer

[Chid he/him]

Using Gamut as a hub of information won't work.  We pretty much know he is good, but he has no way to identify if the people who PM him are trying to scam him.

[Lanscaper]

Well that was an interesting re-read to catch up with things.  Sorry for the inactivity for the past bit, been busy.  Now then seems that there is a bit of suspicion being cast on Asp and on Mabi. I understand that some of the suspicion that is being cast on Mabi has to do with RP reasons. I guess I should have made it clear that Mabi's RP will be based off of the information that she has, not the information that I have.  It will also be written ambiguously just like previous posts.  That said I will likely be unable to convince players not to vote for Mabi.

 

Also sorry that I missed my chance to vote on the last day, but as it turns out me not voting gave us clearer information than if I had voted for Elendi (since Mabi was in contention for the chopping block).  Or at least it seems that way to me.

 

Now then, to recap on what Mabi has been up to.

 

Mabi was concerned.  Yesterday she had nearly been killed by the common consensus of three people that had cast their vote for her.  It made her sick to think that men that she had known for the last decade wanted to kill her in their pursuit for information about Cyrus' killer.  It was to her great relief that Elendi was hung instead, how or why she didn't understand, but she was alive yet another day and she would cherish it.  She would cherish and enjoy each day that she had, fate willing it would be many more.

 

She would swallow her words from earlier and do her best to live them out.  She made her way to the tavern and spent the remaining day and night imbibing, laughing, and seeking the pleasures of life.

 

When she awoke the next morning she found herself in a room with one of the caravan hands.  Her head was pounding likely due to the hangover from the previous night.  It had been a long time since she had had that much to drink.  Tasting her dry mouth she faintly tasted lingering bile meaning that she had had more to drink than she had realized.  Still from the soreness of her body she felt content in how she had spent what may be her last day of life, if the previous day was any indication.  Moving from the covers she assessed the state of her dress.

 

Her hands moved to the needle and thread that were kept in her mending kit, moving to repair the damage to her dress and undergarments from the young man's passion.  Least she assumed that was the case, she couldn't really remember all of last night, but looking at the sleeping body partially covered on the bed it seemed likely that the rips and tears of her clothes were due to the young muscled man.

 

Her morning was spent repairing her only dress, and smiling at the young caravan hand as he woke.  She convince him to pay for a bath, sending him down to Bartson to have some water heated, and soap set aside.  Once all that was attended, and she was convinced that she was presentable, she made her way out of Bartson's to find the others in conversation about the next person that would be lynched.  It seemed that again she was under suspicion of being involved in the deaths, although after asking around it seemed that only Clan had actually voted against her.

 

It seemed that most suspicion was being cast against Asp, the town peddler.  She remembered that he was prone to crazy mutterings that varied from dark to lighthearted, and had also been one of the people that had voted against her.  She had bought needle and thread from him from time to time in the past years but she honestly did not know much about the man, other than his crazy ramblings.

 

It seemed that the others were talking about the crazy powers that some people had, and that Asp's death would be an inevitable fact unless they had proof of something else.  She was not thrilled that there would be another death, but it seemed that she might have another day to live, a thought that made her feel warm and content thinking about what she would do tonight.

 

She decided to keep silent for now, and collect information, casting her vote when she knew more about the state of votes, and whether or not she would be killed.  She would vote this time if it meant saving herself, and not be frozen in horror from the suspicion that was cast against her.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Lanscaper

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm going to keep my vote for Asp and see what info we get from his death. That's really awful, but it think that's what we have to do. And we all need to commit to kill Gamut's informant if Asp is innocent. Beetle got away In the first game because we didn't pursue him after we killed the other Seeker.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Ugh. I really don't want to do this.

But this is how I see things. Even IF my Informant is Spiked, and Asp is a legit Seeker, his hand has already been played. He won't be able to move forward safely in the game at all, and if we don't lynch him now, then we risk losing valuable information in a timely manner.

I have been hesitant to release my Informant's Identity until the results of the lynching, so I can keep their secret safe for as long as possible - in the off chance they are actually a legit Seeker.

So, I really am sorry to do this, because I know no matter how I vote, I am being played by the Spiked -- and with the same friggin' gambit they got me with in the First Game.

But, continuing on with our lynching of Asp is the best way to gain information and learn of things.

My #1 reasoning: I still just don't see the merits of the Spiked playing me through my informant like this. Even if they are just a messenger, and just a Regular Spiked, risking them like this just to get the Seeker is a big move. They already lost one of their members, and to lose a second one like just to possibly get a Seeker, is very risky, even for Spiked.

Edit: As much as I joked about it earlier, I really am starting to feel like Lord Varys. Hearing all of these whispers the little birdies are singing in my ear.
Edit 2: Figure I'd make myself somewhat useful and compile a list of the current votes.
 

• Asp (9) - Me, Maw, Bartson, Chid, Mac, Forage, Wark, Meta, Xaneth and Selvar* (*Retracted)
• Mabi (1) - Clan

Edited March 12, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Metacognition he/him]

I am very sorry Asp, but the more I look at this, the less likely I think the Spiked would pull a stunt like this just to lynch one person, even if that person is a Seeker. They'd be down to 2-3 players and we'd still be at decent strength. 

 

I will say this, if the Spiked are playing me, I will be the first to vote for Gamut's informant. Your murderer will pay for this if you're Good. 

[18th Shard he/him]

I'll go with the flow. ASP <-(That's in red)

[bartbug he/him]

Asp, you need to tell us, not Gamon. For all we know, this is an elaborate scheme involving him being Spiked. For instance, if he is Spiked, and somehow hid it from you, then he could give us two innocents, which could very well mess up.

[Metacognition he/him]

I know them as well, Bartson. I said as much in my long, drawn out post. Your insistence on this is just making you look suspicious, as if he gave them up here, then even the Spiked would know. Right now, there are two people who know who he scanned. So unless you think both Gamut and I are Spiked, which would be crazy, I don't think you need to worry about it right now. Once we know whether or not Asp was Spiked, then we'll know whether or not to trust his seeking in the first place!

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Doesn't this day end soon? I'm kind of anxious just to have it over with.

[Alvron]

"Move it you slack-witted curs.  We need to get these goods to Mantiz before the weeks out." Alon called to his team as five wagons loaded with timber slowly trundled down the road leading out Blackwater.

 

Lighting his pipe, Alon turned to the young driver sitting next to him.  "And just why in the Lord Rulers name were you so late?  You were lucky we didn't leave without you."

 

The driver didn't respond, he hardly ever talked which is one of the reasons Alon was so fond of the boy.  He did however blush furiously and cast a look of longing over his shoulder.

 

Noticing the gaze of his driver Alon sighed. "I see, you were with that Mabi lady last night weren't you.  Well don't you worry son, you'll see her again and I'm sure she will be happy to continue your education.  But right now I need you to focus on your goal.  Already your letting us drift off the road."

 

And to be honest, I wouldn't mind a refresher course from her either.  he thought as he leaned back and smoked while the wagons slowly left the village of Blackwater behind.

 

I wont be on much for the next 4-5 days.  Heading to my cousin's funeral in a couple of days.  Good thing I wrote a character  that has a reason to be absent for a while.  Will try to keep up on phone but don't count on me posting till I return. (My phone sucks when trying to do long posts.)

 

On a game related note.  The spiked wanting to kill our seekers probably means they don't have a smoker.

Edited March 12, 2014 by Alvron

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Gamut raised a tankard towards the heavens above, trying to appease the same forces he had called upon before. The day had grown long and all the villagers were growing weary. They had stayed up, pushing their bodies past normal limits as the mists held back, and the persistent red sun lingered high in the sky.

"I don't know about ye'all, but I've had enough of this accursed day. We've had all our deliberation, and it's time for Asp to meet ol' Jack Ketch. So I beg the Mists to come in, and do their thing." Because apparently we can't kill one of our own in the daytime.

[Claincy he/him]

Dane's Idea seems to be the best. We have the Mistborn seek Asp, tonight, and tommorow kill either him or the Informant, so Today, I propose we Either retract our votes for Asp, or vote for Mabi (She has one vote) in Order to Force a Deadlock, though we have to be careful to not Give the Spiked The Vote. Clan, what are the odds for the Spiked having Soothers/Rioters?

I'll do 2 sets here, 1 with the assumption that there are 2 emotional allomancers in the game, 1 with the assumption that there are 3. Again I will also assume 5 spiked and for simplicity go by initial probability rather than deal with revealed roles altering the probabilities.

 

So the probability of the spiked having at least 1 emotional allomancer would be 1-the probability of them having none.

Which is:

1 - 17 choose 3 / 22 choose 3

 

17 choose 3:

17!/ 3!14!

17*16*15/3*2

17*8*5 = 680

 

22 choose 3:

22!/ 3!19!

22*21*20/3*2

22*7*10 = 1540

 

so 1 - 680/1540

860/1540

~56% that the spiked have at least one emotional allomancer

 

Assuming there are only 2 (which I think is less likely)

17 choose 2

17!/ 2!15!

17*16/2

17*8=136

 

22 choose 2

22! /2!20!

22*21/2

11*21 = 231

 

1 - 136/231

95/231

~41% that the spiked have at least one emotional allomancer

 

 

I voted for Mabi to set up the possibility of a voting war as such that we could gain highly valuable intel from. However it appears that either the spiked want us to kill Aspren or they have given up out of hopelessness. I will leave my vote as is for now in case people do decide to take that route while I am asleep which is highly doubtful, and also because at this point changing my vote would achieve nothing of consequence, we are marginally more likely to gain information if I leave my vote as is, than if I switch to Aspren.

 

Enjoying Words of Radiance, wish I had time to just power through it, stupid life getting in the way : P Apologies for not posting any grumpy old man rp, I really need some sleep for tomorrow.

[Aspren]

I'm Spiked. 

 

I'd like tell you of the voice that has tormented me ever since I was a child. The voice has compelled me to drive ever more spikes into myself, every time it became harder to resist its influence. In an attempt to spite that voice I had begun to trying to poison myself with lead, but the crude spikes had made me too resilient. Any efforts to kill myself were futile.

In the brief moments where I was able to overcome the voice's influence I tried to tell all of you, though my madness prevented anyone from heeding my warnings. It seems, now that I have ceased to be useful, the voice has begun to loosen its influence over me. 

I don't deserve a quick death, but I hope you give me one. I can't...  hold out against the voice much longer.

 

Though that's just me roleplaying, I do still regret having to deceive all of you.

Even though it's only the third day, I imagine this game is going to come to a conclusion quite soon. We'll soon see if the Village has enough luck (which does seem to be on your side in any case) to win the game for a change.

Edited March 12, 2014 by Aspren

[SirVarrock he/him]

Very well then, the day is almost finished and I will once again vote for Asp.

 

On a completely unrelated note, every time I use the colour tags I'm thinking about how it's not properly spelled.

[bartbug he/him]

Wait... Wut?

This has been our best game ever.

[Macen he/him]

So, if Asp really is spiked. Do we us Gamut as the hub, and have him the Lurcher protect him?

Also, if you are the seeker - don't tell anyone else who you are (if we are going to use Gamut as the hub).