Long Game 3: Blackwater Village

[Chid he/him]

That would explain why there was only one attack on the first night, but two tonight.  Asp

[Macen he/him]

The 2nd attack tonight was the probably our coinshot. He probably wanted a night to get an idea of who is spike and not spiked.

I vote Asp (sorry man, i was rooting for you all last game, but now you have to die).

I finally finished WoR! Talk about a book! Especially when you read at the pace of a snail...

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

I realize if im wrong I willingly will yield to my death. And if Asp is clean ill give up my source After the lynch. *fingers crossed*

[SirVarrock he/him]

I love the first tineye message. We seem to be jumping on a bandwagon again, after all that's been said about the folly of doing so. However, chances are low that Gamma is evil again, and I doubt that the spiked would be willing to throw away one of their own so early in the game just to get rid of someone, especially after they've already lost one. So, with that in mind I'm also voting Asp.

Edited March 11, 2014 by SirVarrock

[Macen he/him]

Also, the plus side - if Asp IS a Spike. That means we have another seeker... Bonus knowledge.

[Aspren]

Well, this is funny. Reminds me of the first game. Well, here we go again. I'd give you guys a list table like last time, but unfortunately I have no clear suspicions this time (I'm still slightly suspicious of Mabi though), and you guys would probably forget to follow it, just like last time. Remember how that turned out? 

 

Anyway, this is all I have to prove that I'm innocent:

 

Firstly, I'm a Seeker. A non-spiked Seeker that is.

Secondly, the person, who said that I'm spiked, would have to be a Seeker (or at-least say that they're a Seeker). That would have to mean that are three Seekers in this game. And that means that for me to be a Spiked Mistborn, none of these two Seekers are spiked, which is unlikely.

Thirdly, for me to be a Mistborn means that there would have to be two Mistborn in this game, which is also unlikely.

 

Whoever fed Gamma the misinformation would have to be spiked. That, and they didn't think this through properly. Having effectively thought of the least likely role for me to have. (At-least this tells me that the Spiked haven't seeked me yet) If they had seeked me then they would've accused me of being a Spiked Seeker, in which case I'd have almost no way of proving my innocence.

 

Assuming that you're not convinced, I have a request that I like to make, for after you've lynched me, and my innocence is proven:

 

Do not lynch Gamma. He isn't Spiked (I seeked him). The person who should be lynched is obviously is the person who fed Gamma misinformation. 

 

Being that two nights have passed, obviously I've already seeked two people. I'll be telling Gamma of the role of the other person that I seeked.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Thirdly, for me to be a Mistborn means that there would have to be two Mistborn in this game, which is also unlikely.

 

Do not lynch Gamma. He isn't Spiked (I seeked him). The person who should be lynched is obviously is the person who fed Gamma misinformation. 

 

.

 

Um, I don't follow the first part. How does you being a mistborn make it so that there has to be two?

I agree with the second part. Gamut, once Asp dies, if he is clean, your source is dead.

[bartbug he/him]

Aspren, who have you Seeked? Tell us. Not telling helps no one.

Edited March 11, 2014 by bartbug

[Chid he/him]

Firstly, I'm a Seeker. A non-spiked Seeker that is.

...

And that means that for me to be a Spiked Mistborn, none of these two Seekers are spiked, which is unlikely.

 

So you're a second non-spiked seeker, but it's really unlikely for there to be a second non-spiked seeker?  Sounds like you don't even believe what you're saying.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

"Oh, survivor, please. Not again!" Gamut pled to indifferent forces up above. "I can never be left alone. They're always trying to trick me!" He got down on his knees and begged the mists to hold off, giving them more daytime to discuss.

Ooc: on my phone, playing magic at friends, too much hectic crap to deal with atm. Official extension request please. Ill be on later and figure this out. Sorry guys, lol. :/

[PorridgeBrick he/him]

Wow, we've been really, really lucky this game. The only Spiked attacks tonight were either Lurched or Thug'd through, and now our Seeker has found us a Spiked. Even if the Seeker is lying, which is highly unlikely, we can still kill them by asking Gamma. I wish it felt like we were actually playing well instead of being lucky. Oh, and Asp.

[Aspren]

 

Um, I don't follow the first part. How does you being a mistborn make it so that there has to be two?

I agree with the second part. Gamut, once Asp dies, if he is clean, your source is dead.

 

Because I didn't make the Tineye message in the first write-up. But obviously I can't prove a negative. So I guess I can't really use that as evidence.

 

Aspren, who have you Seeked? Tell us. Not telling helps no one.

 

I've already given Gamma the information. There's no point in revealing the other one that I've seeked in public. Gamma should post saying that he's received it.

 

So you're a second non-spiked seeker, but it's really unlikely for there to be a second non-spiked seeker?  Sounds like you don't even believe what you're saying.

 

I'm a third Seeker (probably. possibly a second). And it can be assumed that at-least one of the Seekers is spiked. If the claim is that I'm a Spiked Mistborn, then it means that most likely on of the two seekers is a Spiked. Obviously It can't be claimed that I'm both the Spiked Seeker and the Spiked Mistborn at the same time. If it was claimed that I'm the Spiked Seeker then then it could be said that one of the three/two seekers (including me) is certainly spiked. 

 

Effectively I'm saying that you can't say that I'm Spiked by using both the logic suggesting that I'm the Spiked Seeker and the logic suggesting that I'm the Spiked Mistborn put together. If I'm the Spiked Seeker then Gamma's source would've said that I'm the Spiked Seeker.

 

Edited March 11, 2014 by Aspren

[bartbug he/him]

Asp, relying on Gamma really is not in your favor. After all, after we kill you, and you're right, he's next on the list almost no matter what, now. If you're wrong, then we can't regard what you're saying, because it's bull crap. Tell us outright, or try and pull up some convincing argument that shows how killing you does more harm than good, and we'll talk.

 

(Categorically more harm than good. Right now, killing you leads us down a path of statistical success, right or wrong, if only because you have placed yourself in a position where we have to be right about one of you. Thanks for that, by the way.)

 

Also, by saying that you're a Seeker, you've rendered yourself useless to us. If you're legit, than the Spiked have no choice but to kill you. This is your last round, like it or not.

Edited March 11, 2014 by bartbug

[SirVarrock he/him]

Arrghhh.  Everything seemed so clear, and now Asp is muddying the waters.  As it stands right now, I think I'll keep my vote on him, but I'll keep a close watch on what's going on, and if he can put together a good defense I might change my vote.

 

Edit: I've decided to retract my vote for now, but I would like to know what time the day ends, so that I won't miss my chance to vote.

Edited March 11, 2014 by SirVarrock

[el_warko he/him]

Wark rasied his head off the bar he was having a sweet dream about a redheaded woman.

 

"Ut's funne, tha man's nayme is eith'a a pun on pop'u'lar pain killa an' e's causin' me a 'eadache (carhnt be tha booze) OR e's nahmed afta the snake boi whach Cle'a'pat'ra commit'teed sui'side. Bath 'o' whach are shafty.  Asp"

 

Wark drank more puple wine.

 

Five years ago

 

Wark loaded up the furnace with wet tin concentrate and set the damp coke up ready to be added to teh top of he smelt.  Nothing could go wrong, he was due to go home and his boys were due back at work unitl tomorrow morning on account of thie illness.

 

"Oi Garrak?  Oi've loaded up the fa'nace and gat tha cake reh'dy.  Oi'll see yah in tha marnin'"

 

Wark fell back asleep dreaming of a serious man carrying a spear.

 

Sorry, between WOR (about half way through, work and the site playin up, I've not been as active as I'd like.

[Metacognition he/him]

I go away and I'm not even one day gone and all this happens! I'm going to try to get on an actual computer here in a bit, but I'd urge people to retract their votes for now. we don't want a bandwagon, as that gives the spiked no reason to speak up. We want the discussion right now, THEN we can pile on the votes!

I'll explain more when I get on later.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Wow, same thoughts as Meta, a day away, and Everything is Different. So Raubber is thug/bloodmaker, someone was lurched, and everyone wants Asp's Blood. If you Survive an attack due to Being Lurched, do you get a PM? I mean, does the Near Victim know that he was attacked? 

And as to Asp being Spiked, all we have is Gamma’s Accusation, but meta and I have some Circumstantial evidence to his innocence, so i'll reserve Judgement till he Lynching. But the Info and Accusation could be Suspect, and we need to avoid Bandwagoning, and I can see several Scenarios here.  

1: a Village Seeker seeked Asp, he’s spiked. the Seeker informs Gamma, (but not Meta?) we kill Asp, hooray!

2: Spiked seeker see’s that Asp is the Village Mistborn, Asp suspected Rubber for some reason and attacked him. Spiked use Gamma as a pawn to get Asp and Gamma killed.

3:Spiked Gamma knows somehow that Asp is the Village Seeker, pretends that someone Informs him, gets Asp lynched, when he’s Proven Innocent, Throws his ‘Informant’ to the Wolves Mist Wraiths.

4: peng posted something, a moderator with a grudge edited it.

5: the Internet become Sentient, decided to Turn us against each other, then Take over.

 

Yes I know this is Muddying the Waters. But I don’t think we have Enough Evidence to Lynch Asp. Personally, i think 5, is the most sense, but since we can’t stop that, I think the Current plan to Lynch Asp, then if he’s Innocent, lynch Gamma’s Informant/Gamma, is the Most Logical right now. Oh Crap, Oh Crap Oh Crap CrapCrapCrapCrap, This seems so Suspicious! I'm Innocent I Swear!. 

EDIT: Hey Meta, Do I get Meta Points for Wreck it Ralph? you Promised!

Edited March 11, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Mailliw73 he/him]

What is the circumstantial evidence that you and Meta have, Joe?

[Peng the Just he/him]

I would like to know what time the day ends, so that I won't miss my chance to vote.

About 24 hours from now. Edit:36 hours from now. Just noticed the extension request

If you Survive an attack due to Being Lurched, do you get a PM? I mean, does the Near Victim know that he was attacked?

No. Edited March 11, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Metacognition he/him]

@Peng: there has been a request for an extension already, but I'm also calling for one. We need more time to sort this out. Also, with a difficult as the site has been the last few days, I'd like you to take that into account when we get out extension.

 

@Joe: Have 5 Meta Points. They don't do much, as they're basically points of points and they tend to break the rules of Physics, so they're difficult to contain, but they are pretty to look at.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Metacognition

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Thanks for the Points Meta.

 

@Maw, Well, since Meta didn't Reveal them, I guess I will. Though it's Circumstantial at best.

So, I and a few I trusted formed a PM Hub, and decided that Meta And Asp were Trustworthy, and Added them. (That's what Peng was talking about when he said not to  add people) Asp Left Instantly. Meta read through, and said that he thought that Asp was Innocent, because he left a PM circle, and what Spiked would do that? So that's all the Evidence for his Innocence. But all the Evidence for his Evilness is that he was accused. (Salem Witch Trials anyone?)

 

EDIT: Meta, Please Confirm this in your next post rather than Ignoring it.

Edited March 11, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Metacognition he/him]

First of all, sorry for the double post, but I wanted to try to catch Peng while he was still on. Also, I miss my computer and all of my notes already! 

 

Okay, so this is a crazy situation. I have a few thoughts and a few possible scenarios I'd like to give you guys going forward on this. 

 

First of all, there are right now 7 votes for Asp. That shouldn't have happened. You not only bandwagoned, but you made it incredibly easy for the Spiked to hide within the vote! I can almost guarantee you that if Asp is innocent, then there are Spiked hiding in that vote and now you have a lot more people to be suspicious of because everyone piled on. 

 

I think it's entirely possible that there is a Spiked Seeker, but I don't think it's Asp. For one, unless Asp is trying to cover for Gamma, he wouldn't effectively tell us that Gamma is a Villager, especially after Gamma was the one to first cast suspicion on him. On that same note, Gamma wouldn't call for the lynch of a fellow Spiked just so he could make it look like Gamma was innocent. Likewise, Gamma's informant isn't likely to throw a fellow Spiked under the bus like that. This is my first clue as to Asp possibly being innocent.

 

Asp also sent his list of seeked people to me and as long as those other people are telling me the truth (without knowing what Asp claimed them to be as well), then his seekings are accurate. 

 

To answer your question, Maw: Aspren and I were both added to a PM group. This group was far too large to be comfortable. Asp left this group almost immediately. Now while this is pure speculation on my part, I don't think a Spiked player would leave such a tasty group. Not only would they influence amongst that group, but also they would've gained a lot of information out of staying in it. 

 

On the other side of this; we have a mysterious benefactor who told Gamma someone is Spiked and provided Gamma's role as proof. 

 

Well, in my opinion, I think there were ample ways for them to figure out Gamma's role, which is the only proof they have provided:

- They are a Spiked Seeker and they scanned him.

- They are Spiked and Gamma was the one attacked last night.

- They are a Spiked Mistborn and scanned Gamma to lie about Asp. 

- They are Spiked and they were told this information from one of the other Spiked to get Asp lynched but also to protect their Mistborn/Seeker.

 

Those are the ways they could do so and be Spiked obviously. If they are not Spiked:

- They are a Village Seeker and scanned both Gamma and Asp

 

That's the only way they could do this if they were good because it would take two scans. 

 

Now all that doesn't mean that Asp isn't a Spiked Mistborn.

 

Asp could still be a Spiked Mistborn and there is a Spiked Seeker out there that has told him the results of their scans so that he can pretend to be a Village Seeker to save himself. This too would cover every situation above except for Joe's and my circumstantial information, which we can't and shouldn't use as our only measuring stick. 

 

There's also the fact that this would be a pretty bold play by the Spiked just to kill a random villager. They might get us to kill Asp, but then we'd turn on Gamma's informant and they'd be down yet another Spiked (who probably wouldn't even survive the night, if one of those attacks last night was our Coinshot)

 

Either way, there is a good chance that we lose our other Seeker out of this, so if I were you, I'd advance very carefully. We want them to have to fight for this lynch if Asp is innocent and we want to see how they try to deflect the vote if he is not. I don't know if we'll be able to get that now, due to the early bandwagoning, but it's worth a shot. 

 

One last thing, I suggest that our village vote changing roles stay out of this one. That way we will know if the Spiked use any vote changing roles and which way they tried to swing it. If they feel the need to use it, then we'll have a fairly good answer as to how they wanted it to go, so we'll know who is Spiked and we'll also have a pretty good idea of who their vote-changing Spiked is.

 

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Ok, first I would like to confirm that Asp has sent me the Seeking info he talked about.

And I am retracting my vote for Asp at the moment. I am going through PMs and scouring back through the site, and am going to try and figure this out.
The Spiked are playing a dangerous game for sure. And it's extra unfortunate with the site being down so sporadically, since only the Spiked are really benefiting with uninterrupted conversation in their Docs.

I will update this later with more info.

Edit: If we have a villager coinshot, I'm going to want you to get ahold of me.
Edit 2: Me retracting my vote for Asp does not mean I don't suspect him still or anything. Right now, it's just literally up in the air between him and my mysterious informant. I just wanted to throw my retract in there to show everybody I am heavily considering everything going on. And if I vote for Asp or my informant, I want to be as sure as possible.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[el_warko he/him]

"Met'a,

 

whaht you say is true re'gard'i vote mass'arging.  'Owever, don't that naht only 'old truh if som'in tahlks peh'pil ou'ta voting for Asp?  Boi me math yahd nee'dta geht tha vote down'ta rehl low loike ta tha point at whach Asp culd be sahved boi 'is com'raides, iffin he wehr spoiked."

 

Wark pondered as he took another pull from his hip flask, on it was ingraved the word 'Wark"  he then pontificated:

 

"In'dee'sision'll kiss us fahr quicka than co'miht'mint wahl.  Shur low vates'll make mass'arging not'a'bill buh thahl also mahk uht eas'yer ta pick us off"

[Claincy he/him]

 

They are Spiked and Gamma was the one attacked last night.

They couldn't find out for certain that way, Gamma being high-profile could have been lurched by someone else given his high profile. They could make a good guess however they wouldn't know for certain through that method.

 

So you just confirmed what Gamma's role was for everyone However, it was a likely bet already and we know for certain that the spiked are already aware of it regardless of who is telling the truth here.

 

Man this feels very familiar. As we don't know who this other "seeker" is we can't vote for them. So we don't have a specific person to vote for, but at the same time we really want to have the vote at least have at least some basic potential for a vote to go either way, avoiding the bandwagoning and giving us some information. Someone needs to start this for it to happen, so I will vote for Mabi again as still the most suspicious known player other than Asp and potentially Gamma.

 

Honestly I'm not sure which way to go on this yet. Not knowing anything about the other "seeker" makes it very hard to judge.

 

Oh, and words of radiance just arrived, so I now have that consuming my time too.