Long Game 3: Blackwater Village

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

If it was a rioting, then there'd be two votes missing: the one from the vote that was rioted, and the rioter's own vote which is automatically canceled out.

Not true. In the last game all of my Riots looked like Soothing. You just change somebody else's vote to what you're voting for. Your vote would cancel, but then the vote that you changed makes up for your missing vote.

That's why I was so sucessful as the Spiked Soother last game. Since all my Riots from the very beginning looked the same once I started Soothing.

Edit: But I am more positive that it was either the Soother or Duralumin Ferring and not the Rioter in this case.

 

Edited March 9, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Claincy he/him]

Huh, well awesome!

 

It seems I was wrong about who was more suspicious, I guess I am glad I was now. Though I expect I will be under some suspicion for voting as I did. Oh well, it was the logical choice at the time. Aside from that that went very well. A spiked dead, some information based on voting and a hint as to what must be a soother or connector or maybe a rioter.

 

Peng, how long will the night last?

 

Clan grunted with satisfaction as Erendi's shirt was removed, revealing his spike.

[PorridgeBrick he/him]

Either way, we know the Soother or Connecter in question is likely unSpiked.

[Dalinar he/him]

It seems the spiked are lucky, but so are we! They got a seeker, we got a spiked! Also, what role does Erendi have?

[Peng the Just he/him]

Peng, how long will the night last?

about 36 hours from now. sorry my schedule isn't more consistant

It seems the spiked are lucky, but so are we! They got a seeker, we got a spiked! Also, what role does Erendi have?

Erendi had no role aside from being spiked

[Metacognition he/him]

"I... I was right?!?" Meta collapsed to the ground, sitting down in the dirt with a look of befuddled wonderment on his face. He wasn't used to actually being right. Most of the time, the villagers laughed at his wild conclusions, but this time, he was correct. 

 

"I... I was right."

 

Every time he said it, it felt a little more natural to him, as if this could actually be possible. He was still sitting in the dirt and ash though. 

 

He was still there when Gamut found him and offered him is hand in peace. "Parley?"

 

Meta took Gamut's outstretched and a shook it with a lopsided grin. "We all make mistakes. It would be foolish of me to hold it against you." 

 

But that doesn't mean I still won't be watching you, he added mentally.

 

With that the two headed to The Lurcher. After such an eventful day, Meta was looking forward to a drink or two... or twenty. 

 

Woot! Go us! That couldn't have gone any better than it did! 

 

A few things I'd like to say. First off, if we have a Lurcher, HELP ME!!! After being so active the first day and then us finding a Spiked, I think I'm a likely target. They probably didn't go after me the first day due to me mentioning how likely that would be before the game started, but now, I'll bet they'd like my head on a platter. 

 

Second, just because we got a Spiked from my list of suspects doesn't mean that the rest of them are right. I could be wrong about every single other person on my list and we all just picked the Spiked amongst them. So please, don't put too much weight into my list of suspects. Try to keep your suspicions fluid and changeable. 

 

Finally, I'll be leaving for Spring Break on Monday, so I will try to help out as much as possible before then, but after that, I won't be able to write the long, drawn out manifestos I've been doing so far. 

 

We've still got a long way to go! 3-4 more Spiked left, I'd guess!

[Chid he/him]

Well flip, now I look like a bad guy.  Let me be the first to inform you that I am a good guy.  I thought we were going to kill an innocent and do the spiked's job for them.  I still think that's crazy lucky that we got a spiked.  Maybe Meta is a Spinner.

[Metacognition he/him]

I'll be the first to admit, we got lucky, but I'll say this, I didn't suspect you just because you were against lynching someone (and this goes for anyone I've suspected for trying to stop a lynch). 

 

I suspect you because we absolutely need the information that comes from a lynch. Even if Erendi turned out to be a good villager, we still learn a lot. 

 

Let's say Erendi was just a regular villager, what else did we learn from this lynch? We learned that there is not only a vote changing role among us, but that they are active. We learned that they did not want Mabi lynched (I could also see a savvy Soother/Connecter making sure the vote isn't tied as well). We learned that Erendi was a regular villager, so we don't have to worry about them being Spiked later. We learned that the Spiked wouldn't have cared about us targeting Erendi, as they weren't one of their own. 

 

And that's saying that Erendi was a Regular Villager! That alone is a decent bit of information and considering that is was only the first day (where we almost literally have nothing to go on), that's still a good start. Within that, we're not even counting how people reacted throughout the voting process. When we consider that Erendi was actually Spiked, we have even more to go off of. 

 

Lynching isn't a bad thing, as long as we go into it with the idea of getting the most out of it. That's why I called for an extension early. We needed as much info as possible.

 

Now I'll say this, if you or Gamut are Spiked, you're both playing incredibly aggressively, which means you're gambling quite a bit. You're almost too suspicious to be actually suspicious. That doesn't mean I'm taking you off my list, but I'm also not willing to discount the idea that you're just confused. I'd love for you and Gamut to explain to me how we're suppose to get information out of suspecting people without lynching. On top of that, I'd like to hear how we're suppose to make people speak up without the threat of lynching. On top of that, I'd love to hear how your way of lynching would be any different.

 

Would we all wind up piling onto a vote once we've argued things out? How would that prevent the Spiked from hiding in the votes?

 

Would we spread ourselves out? How is that different from casting votes in the first place? 

 

Do we have a long discussion of where we are going to place votes? Again, how is that different from placing them in the first place? Also, do we have the time for that? It took quite a bit just to make sure everyone spoke up! 

 

In the end, yes, you do come off as being the bad guy, but that doesn't mean that you actually are a bad guy (paraphrased from a movie, I'll give anyone Meta Points [which mean nothing, but I'll give them anyways] who can actually name the movie). I leave that up to you and how you act/react going forward. 

 

Edit: I'd love to be a Spinner. Casinos here I come!

Edited March 9, 2014 by Metacognition

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Wreck it Ralph

 

So, now that we have one spiked down, who would the others be? Gamut and Chid, as meta said, seem slightly suspicious, but so do I. Meta Probably isn't spiked, as he voted for Erendi first, Bart voted for Erendi next, making him unlikely to be spiked, then I did. but someone else also soothed One of Mabi's Votes, so if the soother is spiked, then mabi might be, unless it's the Connector who voted for Mabi.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Darn it, Joe. I was just about to say that.

And I am pretty sure that the "Smell the death" Tineye is Spiked. If not, then at least evil. Who would say something like that? As for who I actually suspect, I'm not sure yet. Mabi is the most suspicious to me so far, though Gamut is also up there.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

I totally understand why I'm on the top of the Suspect List. I didn't really actually expect you guys hitting a spiked. I completely get the need to gain information, and the lynch did give us a lot to work from. I just didn't want us to acidentally hang an important Misting, like has been the case for almost all hangings in the other games. What if Erendi would have been a Villager Coinshot? It was the same chances of him being that as a Spiked. I am of course extremely glad that he was in fact a Spiked, but you can at least understand my reluctance?

Yes, my plan would have not netted as nearly as much information. We'd still just be discussing instead of actually hitting a Spiked. But I thought the trade off of having one less death was worth the waste of a Day Lynch. We still would have had suspicions to work from going into the Night Cycle. But remember, I completely thought we were going to be hitting a villager Misting. It was basically a 75% chance.

[Chid he/him]

Don't worry, Meta.  You can count on me being confused.  

By the way, I'm missing my computer.  Have any of you seen it?

[Aspren]

There's something that we're forgetting. The Spiked we lynched was a Regular Spiked, not a misting. Which means that out of all the Spiked, Erendi was probably the most disposable. 

 

In any case, I'm still maintaining my suspicion of Mabi.

[Dalinar he/him]

Alright, time to propose my theories:

 

One. I think that because there are no longer 'safe roles', the only reason Peng took them away was so he could give the spiked those roles. I don't think there's a spiked mistborn, because of the first mistborn message thing at the beginning, it doesn't seem like something a spiked would say, because he is proposing that he will reveal who he is or something later. I know I don't have stuff backing this, so don't believe me, but I'm just spitting my ideas out.

Two. There are two tineyes. I'd guess that one is spiked, probably the creepy Smell the Death guy. I think that Peng made tineye a normal role just so he could make a tineye spiked. So, if the tineye reveals who he really his, I'd suggest lynching him.

 

And that's it. Don't trust me, I'm an idiot, but I hope these help somehow. I'm new to the game, so don't hate on me.

[Chid he/him]

Also, I would guess that the spiked don't have a coinshot.  If they have one, I don't understand why they didn't use him on the first night.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Also, I would guess that the spiked don't have a coinshot.  If they have one, I don't understand why they didn't use him on the first night.

...Unless that's what they wanted us to think! (Dun, Dun, Dun!)

But yeah, I don't really see the point of missing out on two kills the first night. But who knows? When you're constantly hearing the whispers of Ruin, anything can sound like a good idea, I suppose.

[Claincy he/him]

We've all been assuming that one of the tineyes is spiked and the other is a villager, but my curiosity got the better of me and I crunched a few numbers to work out just how unlikely it was that both would be spiked, or that both would be villagers.

 

Most people didn't know, and Clan tried to forget, but he had some moderate skill with numbers. The question of the chances of the tineyes being spiked was niggling at him so he sat down, pulled out some paper, and got to work.

There has to be a couple of assumptions here. First is that roles are all completely randomly assigned, no work can be done without this assumption.

Secondly is the number of spiked, the common understanding is that there could be 4-6. As a quarter is about normal, dividing 22/4 gives 5.5 so I'll round it down and take 5 as it is the middle value anyway.

(I'll be using nCr here.)

The odds of both being spiked:

5 choose 2 divided by 22 choose 2:

(the number of ways of selecting 2 spiked to be tineyes from 5 spiked/the number of ways of picking 2 tineyes from 22 players)

5!/(2!*(5-2)!)

5!/2!3!

5*4/2 = 10

22!/2!20!

22*21/2

11*21 = 231

so 10/231~4%

So not very likely at all.

Both tineyes being villagers:

17 choose 2 divided by 22 choose 2

17!/2!15!

17*16/2

17*8 = 136

so 136/231 ~59%

One villager, one spiked:

100-59-4= 37%

I have cut off decimal places as it isn't really worth it.

So in summary:

The chance that both are spiked: 4%

The chance that both are villagers: 59%

The chance of 1 spiked & 1 villager: 37%

There's the odds, I am fairly certain my math is correct. Not quite what I was expecting *shrug*, figured I might as well share though.

Clan nailed his findings to the inn then went to bed. "Tha's enough ruddy math for one day...or the week for tha matter."

[Dalinar he/him]

Why are you all so smart. O_O I can't decipher a single code, or do any of that stuff. XD

[the Gleeman he/him]

Vizzini unlocked his basement door and stepped out, he didn't think it would take him that long to find just one book.

 

Sorry I've been inactive, I could not acquire a copy of Words of Radiance. Vizzini's back though!

 

"Imbeciles!" Vizzini stormed into town. "Anyone who successfully voted for Erendi is now about 8% more likely to be spiked in order to alleviate suspicion."

 

"This statement itself will rise my suspicion up about 15%, but, that is a worthwhile raise in suspicion. I will take it."

Edited March 10, 2014 by the Gleeman

[Peng the Just he/him]

Day 2
The killer snuck up on their next victim, steel knife in hand, ready to make the kill. Suddenly, the knife jerked out of their hand, flying off into the night. Cursing, the figure fled. There would be another opportunity
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Raubber was almost finished digging Erendi’s grave. Normally, burials were better attended than this, but normally the person being buried wasn’t spiked and the burial would take place during the day. Raubber took a swig of water from his wine skin, and leaned on his shovel. His candle hardly provided enough light to work by. A boxing shot out of the darkness, catching him in the neck. He screamed in pain, feeling his wound. It hurt, but it wasn’t enough to kill someone like him
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Two more messages appeared that evening.
The first, scrawled on the wall in Bartson’s tavern was:
 

…......................................................_____.....................................................................

.....................,................................../.….......\..................................................................

.......................................................|.….........|..................................................................

....................................................... \______/..................................................................

.................Some of you are privately considering leaving the village? Why, Friends...!

...........................................___________________........................................................

..............................................---___ Tineye_know_|..............’........................................

........................................................|s_best_Liste|...........................................................

........................................................|n_to_your_t|...........................................................

....................................................__|ineye_It's_a|__.......................................................

............................................__---scary_world_out_---__...............................................

....................................__--- there_Tineye_knows_best_---__.......................................

.............................._---One_way_or_another_something_will---_,...............................

........................._---go_wrong_I____swear_Coin____shots_thugs--_...........................

...................._--mistwraiths__--.......|obligators_-|.......--_noblemen__--_......................

................._-and_soldiers_--............,|Inquisitors|.............--_!_Oh_yes!__-_.................

............._-|lso_koloss-_--................_|Thieves_w|_................--_ith_pointy-|-_..............

............|teeth_and__--.................._-stop_no_more--_................--_you'll_just|..............

............|upset_m-_-|................_--e_Tineye's_right_h--_.................|-_ere_Tin-|.............

...........|eye_will_|..............._--protec_t_you_Fr_iends_--_.................|here's-w|.............

..........|hat_I_Sug|,..........._-|gest_d_-..|on't_be_|..-_a_ninn|-_..............|y_stay_|.............

...........|with_Tin|............|ny!__-_--.....|*sigh*_|.......--_Tiney|..............|e_know|.............

............|s_best_T-|..........|ineye_|.........|underst|..........|ands_-|............|Tineye's|..............

............|_here_to-|..........|help_-|..........|you__|............|All_I_|.............|Have-_|...............

..............-|is_one_|.........|reques|...........|t!_Fr-|.............|iends|............|?_Don'|- ...............

...............-_t_ever-|..........|try_t|............|o_lea|.............|ve_th|............|is_vill_-................

.................-_age_a-_........-_gai-_....X..|n!_D|...X...._-on't__-.........._-forg_-..................

...................-_et_it_--_.........-_Yo-_X....|u'll|....X._-regr_--..........._-et_i_-.....................

......................-_t!_Tin-_.........--_e--_......|y-|......_-e-_--............._-_Kn_-........................

.........................--_ows--_............----_......|-|...._-----.............._-_B--_--...........................

..............................--_es---_.X..............,....|...................X..._--t!--_--.............................

...................................--_4..-_.X...............................X.._-C..._--....................................

........................................---__-_...X...X...X...X...X.._-.__---..........

The second, delivered in flyers all over the town was:
Suspicionform to us was given,
Making us, sadly, without thought, kill
Those whom we have, from us, driven.
After death, all is clear, yet kill we will.
 
--Song of Listing,
wUnknown Stanza
-------------------------------------------------------------
Someone was Lurched!
Raubber took damage, but did not die!

Edited March 11, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Grayv he/him]

Ouch!!

[Edgedancer he/him]

For now I´m going to assume that the lurched one was Meta and Raubber is either a Thug or a Bloodmaker. Why would someone attack Raubber? He wasn´t very active but, so I guess he wouldn´t be the most appealing targed for the spiked. My guess is that a villager Coinshot attacked him, however I don´t claim to be certain on this.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Boo.

Had a bunch of RP planned out, but the site is all funky, so I'll make this quick.

I've been told by anonymous sources that Asp has been Seeked and revealed to be a Spiked Mistborn. This person has Seeked me and sucessfully told me my Role, so I might be falling for the same trap I did in the first game, but with Clan's statistics, I feel more comfortable with our chances.

So if this turns out bad, I completely understand the want/need to lynch or kill me next.

 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

The Tineye with the Tin symbol seems to be trying to follow in Hero's footsteps. There is white text in-between the symbol that spells out the "Mother Knows Best" song from Tangled, but it's "Tineye Knows Best". I've put together the italicized letters and it spells "There's Always another Secret". There are some bold letters but all I've been able to get from it is "yH4C" which means nothing to me. If anyone else wants to try and figure it out. I haven't been able to get anything from the second message.

Gamut, that's a bold claim. I'm willing to follow it up and if Asp isn't Spiked, you're next on my chopping block.

Edited March 10, 2014 by Mailliw73

[bartbug he/him]

Gamon, that's great and all, and I'll vote Asp, but if you're wrong, then you need to tell everyone who told you. That way, we can lynch the two of you!