Long Game 37: Court Thread

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

8 hours ago, randuir said:

 

This doesn't mean that nothing can be learnt from the Ecthelion lynch. However, it is at the moment only one piece of the puzzle, and more pieces will be needed to get the full picture.

Now, on to a reevaluation of some of my reads, starting with Drake. I'm getting more of a village vibe from his post last cycle. As I mentioned before, I really don't think an eim would have done the 'keeping a tie' thing, unless he had already agreed with another elim that he/she would bail him out. This second option is a possibility, but I think it's unlikely, as it comes with the risk of two elims getting revealed for the price of one (ie, if we lynch drake, and he's evil, we should take a good look at the people that swung the vote in his favor).

Next up is Clanky. I'm actually starting to lean slightly village on him now after seeing how he went after Lopen. I don't think an elim would risk putting himself this clearly on Lopen's radar this early in the game, unless he expected to be able to get Lopen lynched (and if that was his goal, I'd have expected evil!clanky to switch votes to one of the other candidates when the Lopen lynch didn't really get going to try and get under the radar again).

The last person I've been asked about was Lopen. Most of last day he spent defending himself against suspicions and accusations. I don't see any major holes in most of his defenses (things could quite easily be the way he said they are), but he hasn't really posted anything that is alignment indicative. However, @TheMightyLopen, I am interested in what made you get the feeling that Ecth was village. You weren't wrong, so I'm curious about what I missed and/or overlooked.

One more thing I wanted to take a look at is why crimsn got targeted by the elims. The only real suspicion she outed during D2 was a suspicion of Drake,  and if Drake is an elim after all I don't think the wee lil' forest critters would want to attract attention to themselves in that way. Has she shared some suspicions in PM's with anyone? Or alternatively, does anyone know if and to whom she has role-claimed?

Edit: Also, if those of the 'Empty' alignment could step forward, please, and share their win-con, I'd appreciate it.

I kind of agree with you about Drake. So now I need to find a better suspect to vote on...

I mostly read Ecth as village based on tone, because he seemed like he was just posting what he thought without carefully making sure his posts weren't "suspicious" like I'd expect from an eliminator. Also, his vote on Shqueeves D1 seemed more village than elim, since I don't think an elim would usually risk the attention that being the only player to vote would bring.

[Jondesu he/him]

4 hours ago, Flash said:

And stink, why do you specifically say that the elim targets are bad? Isn't every elim target bad? Losing villagers in General is BAD. Especially more valuable and active ones like Crimsn. 

I'm gonna guess that's why STINK said that.  The more active a player is, the more it hurts the game (not necessarily even the village or Elims specifically) when they're killed off.  Not that we should keep people around solely for that, but we should consider it.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Jondesu
Ignore the Forest person who got lost

[Steeldancer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I'm gonna guess that's why STINK said that.  The more active a player is, the more it hurts the game (not necessarily even the village or Elims specifically) when they're killed off.  Not that we should keep people around solely for that, but we should consider it.

Ok then, does that mean we should do a contribution crusade? I've seen pretty much nothing from Meta, Drought, and asterion. 

Um... @Jondesu... wrong thread. You're a forester, not a courter. 

Edited August 17, 2017 by Flash

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

9 minutes ago, Flash said:

Ok then, does that mean we should do a contribution crusade? I've seen pretty much nothing from Meta, Drought, and asterion. 

Um... @Jondesu... wrong thread. You're a forester, not a courter. 

Noooo Flash, we just talked about not doing CC lynches last Cycle! If you want to see those posts, just read El's post during the meeting about it, and there's a few other people after that. Basically, a CC lynch kills discussion, so they're bad.

Please try to find an actual suspicion to lynch. I'll be doing the same.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, TheMightyLopen said:

Noooo Flash, we just talked about not doing CC lynches last Cycle! If you want to see those posts, just read El's post during the meeting about it, and there's a few other people after that. Basically, a CC lynch kills discussion, so they're bad.

Please try to find an actual suspicion to lynch. I'll be doing the same.

Ok ok I was just asking a question. A question based on a post that shouldn't be there anyway. And I'm working on that... still leaning elim on drake. But it's all just gut at the moment. 

I really want to catch an elim for the first time in this game, so I'm working hard. If I find a hard suspicion, you will be hearing from me. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I gotta finish up a job real quick, but I'll probably be giving some proper commentary in a couple hours. Just dropping by.

[STINK he/him]

We don't do a CC lynch. Instead, we kindly ask the Elims if they could hit some inactives instead of the people RPing or being active and having fun. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

6 minutes ago, STINK said:

We don't do a CC lynch. Instead, we kindly ask the Elims if they could hit some inactives instead of the people RPing or being active and having fun. 

And we just expect the elims to comply politely?  

In my experience elims tend to be non co-operative, hardened killers. Except that one time araris didn't want to kill me because I was the sole active player. Other than that. 

So I've done a bit of reading. Orlok, why did you choose to break the tie on Ecth? It reads weird. 

Clanky, I'm getting mixes vibes from you. Would you mind posting and sharing some thoughts? 

Drake, im still reading evil on you  I'm trying really hard not to tunnel but your posts keep setting off my alarm bells. 

All people who haven't said much: I SUMMON YOU! Please participate! The woods is SO much more interesting than our thread right now, and that ain't all right! Please be active guys! Some of you I have spoken to in PMs, but some never responded. 

The issue with not doing a contribution crusade is that we will tend to hit active villagers. Leaving elims and inactive villagers behind. That's what happened in L35, and I would rather it not occur here. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

48 minutes ago, Flash said:

And we just expect the elims to comply politely?  

In my experience elims tend to be non co-operative, hardened killers. Except that one time araris didn't want to kill me because I was the sole active player. Other than that. 

So I've done a bit of reading. Orlok, why did you choose to break the tie on Ecth? It reads weird. 

Clanky, I'm getting mixes vibes from you. Would you mind posting and sharing some thoughts? 

Drake, im still reading evil on you  I'm trying really hard not to tunnel but your posts keep setting off my alarm bells. 

All people who haven't said much: I SUMMON YOU! Please participate! The woods is SO much more interesting than our thread right now, and that ain't all right! Please be active guys! Some of you I have spoken to in PMs, but some never responded. 

The issue with not doing a contribution crusade is that we will tend to hit active villagers. Leaving elims and inactive villagers behind. That's what happened in L35, and I would rather it not occur here. 

I'll be gone for the next few hours, and a longer post to come shortly, but predominately because I was starting to get a village read on Drake, and wanted more time to observe him. Both Ecthelion and Drake were people I considered suspicious, but I thought that there was a higher chance of Drake being village, and so broke the tie in a way I considered productive.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'll be gone for the next few hours, and a longer post to come shortly, but predominately because I was starting to get a village read on Drake, and wanted more time to observe him. Both Ecthelion and Drake were people I considered suspicious, but I thought that there was a higher chance of Drake being village, and so broke the tie in a way I considered productive.

Ok cool beans. But I'm keeping an eye on you. I could totally see an elim breaking a tie to keep his elim team mate alive. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 minutes ago, Flash said:

Ok cool beans. But I'm keeping an eye on you. I could totally see an elim breaking a tie to keep his elim team mate alive. 

Flash, I essentially led the lynch on Drake. Why would I do that if we were teammates? For that matter, why are you reading evil on Drake?

I am still suspicious of Drake, although to a lesser extent, and intend to do a full readover of his posts today.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Seriously.....did they just.....Crimsn too!?  You know....I signed up to rp with Ecthelion and Crimsn right? XD whyyyyyyy you do dis?

*sigh....gonna go do analysis...and hopefully catch one of those peeps that I'm annoyed with heh.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Well, it's not much, but here's how I'm feeling right now.

Village: Orlok, Drake, Clanky, Stink, Lopen(well of course ).

Hard to read, and by process of elimination, these are my top suspects: Elbereth, Budgie, Burnt, Randuir, Shqueeves, BR.

Inactives: Asterion, Meta, Drought.

Leaning village for Flash right now, but it's not a strong read.

I did have Budgie and BR as slight village leans earlier, but that feeling has kind of faded lately. I sometimes am too trusting of new players, and with BR, her posts last Day seemed off just a little.

I think I also mentioned a village lean on Rand, but it's always hard to tell with him.  And his first post this Cycle seemed like, too helpful or something. Like he was trying to get some trust by starting off the Day strong. I might be overthinking it though. xD

I did put Clanky in my the village section, but I am a little paranoid of him. I never like it when players go after me, and I didn't like the way he was going after me either. It wasn't necessarily something a villager wouldn't do though, so I can't say I find it all that suspicious.

Oh, and I forgot to mention this earlier, but a "Regional Faerie" attacked me, so I'm roleblocked for a Turn. I'll get you for that...

[Droughtbringer]

4 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Inactives: Asterion, Meta, Drought.

I normally do a lot of prep for the game before I go very heavy on analysis, reading through rules, coming up with ideas, etc. I normally do that the week or so before the game starts but that was removed for me, plus I started late so I am trying to get caught up with everything going on all around. 

I will start (Hopefully) being more active shortly, 

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, I'm having trouble with coming up with someone I'm super suspicious of, so instead I'm going to do a quick list of people I'm either leaning village on, or that I just don't want to lynch this cycle as I believe lynching them would negatively affect activity and information gathering.

Probably village

BrightnessRadiant, as I actually believe her comment about signing up to RP with crimsn and ecth.

Randuir, as I probably haven't misread my GM PM.

Maybe village

Drake, as I don't believe an elim would be actively trying to hold a tie in place of which he himself is part.

Clanky, as he moved too aggressively after Lopen for an elim.

Hopefully still Neutral

Stink

Elbereth

Inactive

Meta

Asterion

Of the 7 remaining drought has only posted only twice thrice (though his second post did contain some game-related stuff), so though I do want him to be more active, he hasn't said enough to justify a lynch this cycle. That leaves these 6:

1. Locke Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai)
2. Budgie (A Budgie)
3. Carrie Brule (Burnt Spaghetti)
4. Shqueeves (Shqueeves)
5. Lopen (TheMightyLopen)
6. Bart Allen (Flash)

I'd like budgie to try and post a bit more regarding her suspicions, as sticking mostly with RP could just be a hiding technique. It could also be as she said,and that she's just looking for something to contribute as this is her first game. Either way, I'd prefer to wait a bit more before starting a lynch on her.

I know I put Orlok on a slight village read before, but (as he himself pointed out, I think), what I saw as village was merely 'good for the game', which I reckon elim!orlok would do as well. I'd prefer not to lynch him this cycle for that reason yet, though.

so, all together, I'd be okay-ish, with lynching Flash, Lopen, Burnt or Shqueeves this cycle. I wanted to actually place a vote right now, but it's late where I'm at, and I want to take another good look at these 4 before voting.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I was planning on doing my analysis today, and voting tomorrow. I want my vote to be well placed. However at the moment I think I'm going to go with my gut and vote drake . 

There isn't a lot I have to support my vote with. Frankly, nobody has really said enough to give me something solid to work with. When going through the thread, I discovered that I found it much easier to get reads on the forest players, because they were saying more. 

That being said, I feel like there are several player metas that people have pointed out have changed. Particularly Rand. Now I'm getting a pretty strong village read from him, but I worry that once again that I say a person is village just because they say a lot. And that bit me in the back in L35. Also in that list is Brightness and asterion  (who I remember being more active, iirc). 

So yeah. I'll change my vote if I have any realizations or see anything suspicious, or agree with someone else pointing out suspicious behavior. 

And @BrightnessRadiant I'll RP with you if you want. I've been unsure what to do with my character since he DIED, but I should probably be able to come up with something. 

 

Edit: some RP, going back in time a bit. 

Bart awoke bleary eyed. The last thing he remembered was tripping, and then something stepping on him, blackness...

Light was all around him. Voices sounded, but he couldn't understand them. Slowly they came into focus. 

"...died... tripped... hollow..."

He finally managed to look around, making sense of his surroundings. A white bed. Lights. 

HUMANS?!!! 

He nearly jumped out of his bed, if he hadn't been restrained. But then he looked down, and to his horror, He was wearing a human body. 

Bart nearly flipped out, spasming on the bed. People rushed over to him, and he passed out. 

This continued for some time. The story of his death by the hands of some foresters was told to him. His heart full of rage, he swore allegiance to the Court. And now he sat in a classroom. Bored. Out. Of. His. Mind. 

They had hinted to him that there might be something else to do, but he didn't know what it was. This education was awful. In extreme desperation, he etherically separated his soul from his body. 

Lo and behold, his classmates were having a great time in the ether. Duh. He should have realized that earlier. This would make education so much easier. 

Edited August 17, 2017 by Flash

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

37 minutes ago, Flash said:

I was planning on doing my analysis today, and voting tomorrow. I want my vote to be well placed. However at the moment I think I'm going to go with my gut and vote drake . 

There isn't a lot I have to support my vote with. Frankly, nobody has really said enough to give me something solid to work with. When going through the thread, I discovered that I found it much easier to get reads on the forest players, because they were saying more. 

That being said, I feel like there are several player metas that people have pointed out have changed. Particularly Rand. Now I'm getting a pretty strong village read from him, but I worry that once again that I say a person is village just because they say a lot. And that bit me in the back in L35. Also in that list is Brightness and asterion  (who I remember being more active, iirc). 

So yeah. I'll change my vote if I have any realizations or see anything suspicious, or agree with someone else pointing out suspicious behavior. 

And @BrightnessRadiant I'll RP with you if you want. I've been unsure what to do with my character since he DIED, but I should probably be able to come up with something. 

So you think Drake, as an eliminator, was willing to bet his life by tying the votes like he did?

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, TheMightyLopen said:

So you think Drake, as an eliminator, was willing to bet his life by tying the votes like he did?

I've had several people point things like this out to me, which is what makes me unsure of my vote. The problem is I don't have any better candidates at the moment. So I'll keep my vote on him for now. I see a possibility that it was a WWG. 

Again, it's really hard. We're apparently not supposed to do a contribution crusade, and pretty much all the active people im getting village reads on! Frankly if I were anybody else I would be like "im gonna vote flash". But I'm not because I also know that I'm not an eliminator either. I also have the added drive of wanting to find through analysis an elim, rather than riding on other people's coattails like I've done in every other game. 

[asterion137 he/him]

K I caught up on the thread and stuff. Sorry for inactivity I had a pretty hectic end to summer since I had a 1 week period to do basically all my summer work for my AP classes.

[asterion137 he/him]

2 hours ago, Flash said:

WWG

WGG? Or am i missing something

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Flash aww thanks! (also yeah, I warned when I signed up that I'd be less active heh)  I'll rp with you when I'm done posting lots of analysis heh

Anyways, here's analysis finally!

Let's start with Drake since he seems to be a focal point:

1. okay, first off...why you post so much xD...well that's good but ugh analysis haha.

k, first post is about taking the test if our Gunnerkrigg spies in the woods start getting low....well I think that's a good idea. -village read

2. mmm rules clarifications and rp

3. votes for himself to become Medium and gets attacked by everyone for it xD...that's politics -village read (cuz no one voted for him...and I think at least one teammate would have)

4. Says this cycle 1

Quote

Hmmmm...

It would be concerning if everybody agreed to take the test, and then the following cycle we find out all of the eliminators here simply decided not to switch. That would basically be an instant loss for us.

Which sounds like more of a villager thing to draw attention to imo.

5. But then proceeds to actually suggest this plan in the name of "experimentation"...which doesn't sound like a good idea heh. -still reading neutral for this cuz I'm not sure if he actually wanted to try it.

6. Still talking about the testing and supposes there might be another secret to the tests. -neutral (cuz everyone is trying to find the secrets in this game heh)

7. conjectures about roles and mourns that our thread is less active than the woods (sorry prob cuz I wasn't here  haha) -neutral read for this post, although he spent a large amount of this day cycle focusing on the secrets of the game rather than discussing a lynch imo. Guess that could be also elim read.

8. Talks about Potatoes and mine fields. -reading fun for this

9. Says that if we can only take the test once then we should wait a little bit to take it. -still reading neutral because both alignments have good reason to wait

10. Says he's not really feeling a lynch, but that we could contribution crusade....why tho...just why. -reading elim for this cuz contribution crusade on cycle one is ugh

11. Talks more about the testing...really interested in switching threads aren't you Drake? heh. -reading neutral to elim (are you trying to find a way to escape the court sir robot? lol)

Night Cycle finally lol:

1. posts about the Mediums having a new win con and then asks if we're going to have a lynch. (oops it's night lol)

2. just jokes and role plays for the rest of the night cycle

NAI for the night cycle

Day 2:

 

1. talks about the Medium's win cons and secret roles -still reading neutral...really ugh heh

2. comments on the woods losing two players and says they should try to figure out if there was a vigilante kill or a serial killer (uh...not that it's not polite to care when people die, but why so interested in woods people dying? Are they your teammates heh ) -kinda neutral to elim

3. Long post answering questions and commenting on other's posts.-reads slightly village to neutral (too long to quote or summarize heh so here's a link)

4. Had said in his last post that he was gonna try and come up with a lynch candidate but then never posts again until this post which was five hours before cycle's end, where he votes for Ecth to tie the votes up, saving himself from the lynch. Says he's probably gonna die that cycle, and gives a parting post on his game thoughts. (I'm really curious to know his alignment at this point cuz he cast suspicion on Lopen, Burnt, and Stink in that farewell address heh) -reading NAI for this post cuz I seriously don't know what to think about it

5. removes his vote from Ecth to keep it a tie when someone else voted Ecth? Odd. and encourages Burnt to post more reads -reading village for this post

6. Is sad cuz the tie was broken -reading confusion xD

uh the end?

Well.....hmmmm can I just say @Drake Marshall one thing for sure is that you're really confusing in this game  (tbh I kinda wanna lynch you just to find out lol)

guess on to the next person analysis...maybe Clanky next.

Edit: forgot to respond to this:

Quote

 with BR, her posts last Day seemed off just a little.

concerning what, dear brother  @TheMightyLopen

Edited August 18, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
responding to Lopen

[Steeldancer he/him]

20 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

WGG? Or am i missing something

Right. WGG. I totally had that right 

I mean it COULD be WWG. It would just be... a wounded water-buffalo gambit. 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Flash

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Okay Clanky's turn to be in the spotlight  @Clanky tagging you so you can respond to my thoughts

1. Says this:

Quote

Sorry for not posting. Have a very big deadline at work next week and I've been working 12+ hour days ti keep up.  Now over the weekend I've got spotty Internet but I'll do what I can.

Personally I don't see any reason to take the test right now. Unless you don't like your role or just wanna create some chaos. That second one is actually a pretty good reason now that I think about it though...

soooo pretty NAI

2. Says he's not gonna vote or be very active cuz of spotty internet - still NAI

3. Says he's trying to focus more on fun for his game meta now and that he's gonna try to be more active after this post - NAI (but yay for fun and activeness haha)

4. Says he'd rather we lynched a forest villager than try to find one among the courties...but....why? -reading elim (cuz it just seems odd and not very productive for the court)

5. voted Lopen for a misunderstanding but then never removes the vote after Lopen explained -reading elim 

6. Says this when questioned about leaving his vote on Lopen:

Quote

Yep, i'm fine leaving my vote where it is. THe flash statement was only secondary to all the weird anti-lynch stuff Lopen has been saying in almost every post. I don't see why a villager would want to suppress lynches except perhaps the first cycle.

ehhhh Lopen hasn't really been anti-lynch tho *shrugs. Plus, Clanky even suggested lynching a forester that cycle instead of someone from the Court so how is that really any different from being anti-lynch. Both aren't very helpful. -reading slightly elim for this

7. Speaks up for the Contribution Crusade saying that it could get people more involved -reading kinda NAI for this cuz everyone seems to have varied opinions on the CC (although this seems like the second time he's drawn attention away from an actual lynch, eh *shrugs)

8. This post confused me a bit tbh. Not sure if it's just cuz I've been doing too much analysis and my brain is tired or if it just seems off. Why would you say it's fine to vote someone in the name of the CC just to get their attention, but then condemn Lopen for saying the same thing about Ecth's vote on Shqueeves day 1?

9. Says his reasoning for voting Lopen might not be the best, but he didn't have much time to find suspicions. -reading kinda neutral to village (cuz I know he's busy irl and it seems like he's trying to be involved at least which is good)

all in all....I think I'd like to see a little more from Clanky this cycle before I make any kind of vote on him. Although lynching him might provide a little insight into Lopen and Rand's alignments cuz he's had interactions with both players in thread.

 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Yayy I have time to give this game some more attention.

First of all, lets just get up-to-date on the last few posts:

20 hours ago, randuir said:

A shame about crimsn, but the butcher's bill is in our favor here if we compare with the forest. That's ignoring alignment changes, of course. @STINK, should we be looking for a replacement for the role of medium? 

Anyway, I'll answer a couple of the questions I was asked in PM's after I already signed off for the day. Most of that was stuff I don't mind sharing with the thread as a whole.

So, first of all, the Ecthelion lynch. The people from this thread that voted on him at one point or another where me, Brightness, shqueeves, Drake and Orlok, if I'm not mistaken. Me, Shqueeves and Brightness voted for him for similar reasons (his behavior D1 seemed rather odd), Drake seemed to vote for him to try and keep a tie up, and Orlok voted because he was suspicious of Both Drake and Ecth, but wanted to see more of Drake to further form his opinion. All in all, none of these reasons for voting stand out too much. I'm honestly somewhat surprised at Drake's attempt to force a tie, but it makes him seem somewhat village in my eyes, as an elim wouldn't have taken the risk, and most people would have been able to get away with a vote out of self-preservation if the other target was a reasonable suspect.

The retracted votes where mine, Brightness and Drake's. Drake's retraction had again to do with his attempt to keep a tie up. DA's vote on Ecth made me wary that something else might have been going on, and Brightness found Ecth's explanation good enough. If I put on a particularly paranoid hat then brightness's retraction might make me wonder a bit, but someone else wearing that hat would probably look somewhat suspiciously at my own retraction as well, so I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt here.

This doesn't mean that nothing can be learnt from the Ecthelion lynch. However, it is at the moment only one piece of the puzzle, and more pieces will be needed to get the full picture.

Now, on to a reevaluation of some of my reads, starting with Drake. I'm getting more of a village vibe from his post last cycle. As I mentioned before, I really don't think an eim would have done the 'keeping a tie' thing, unless he had already agreed with another elim that he/she would bail him out. This second option is a possibility, but I think it's unlikely, as it comes with the risk of two elims getting revealed for the price of one (ie, if we lynch drake, and he's evil, we should take a good look at the people that swung the vote in his favor).

Next up is Clanky. I'm actually starting to lean slightly village on him now after seeing how he went after Lopen. I don't think an elim would risk putting himself this clearly on Lopen's radar this early in the game, unless he expected to be able to get Lopen lynched (and if that was his goal, I'd have expected evil!clanky to switch votes to one of the other candidates when the Lopen lynch didn't really get going to try and get under the radar again).

The last person I've been asked about was Lopen. Most of last day he spent defending himself against suspicions and accusations. I don't see any major holes in most of his defenses (things could quite easily be the way he said they are), but he hasn't really posted anything that is alignment indicative. However, @TheMightyLopen, I am interested in what made you get the feeling that Ecth was village. You weren't wrong, so I'm curious about what I missed and/or overlooked.

One more thing I wanted to take a look at is why crimsn got targeted by the elims. The only real suspicion she outed during D2 was a suspicion of Drake,  and if Drake is an elim after all I don't think the wee lil' forest critters would want to attract attention to themselves in that way. Has she shared some suspicions in PM's with anyone? Or alternatively, does anyone know if and to whom she has role-claimed?

Edit: Also, if those of the 'Empty' alignment could step forward, please, and share their win-con, I'd appreciate it.

I'm not actually sure that I wouldn't do something like I did if I were an eliminator. But who knows.

 

12 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I kind of agree with you about Drake. So now I need to find a better suspect to vote on...

I mostly read Ecth as village based on tone, because he seemed like he was just posting what he thought without carefully making sure his posts weren't "suspicious" like I'd expect from an eliminator. Also, his vote on Shqueeves D1 seemed more village than elim, since I don't think an elim would usually risk the attention that being the only player to vote would bring.

I mean, maybe I'm just being paranoid, but this kind of makes me substantially more suspicious of Lopen.

Quick to cast a vote on me when it looks like it's a likely lynch, but then even quicker to back down on that when it's looking less likely.

I get it, people change their minds, and Almighty knows I'm not a consistent person, but still.

It feels like this is somebody who is paying attention to the things that might lay blame at their feet.

 

8 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Well, it's not much, but here's how I'm feeling right now.

Village: Orlok, Drake, Clanky, Stink, Lopen(well of course ).

Hard to read, and by process of elimination, these are my top suspects: Elbereth, Budgie, Burnt, Randuir, Shqueeves, BR.

Inactives: Asterion, Meta, Drought.

Leaning village for Flash right now, but it's not a strong read.

I did have Budgie and BR as slight village leans earlier, but that feeling has kind of faded lately. I sometimes am too trusting of new players, and with BR, her posts last Day seemed off just a little.

I think I also mentioned a village lean on Rand, but it's always hard to tell with him.  And his first post this Cycle seemed like, too helpful or something. Like he was trying to get some trust by starting off the Day strong. I might be overthinking it though. xD

I did put Clanky in my the village section, but I am a little paranoid of him. I never like it when players go after me, and I didn't like the way he was going after me either. It wasn't necessarily something a villager wouldn't do though, so I can't say I find it all that suspicious.

Oh, and I forgot to mention this earlier, but a "Regional Faerie" attacked me, so I'm roleblocked for a Turn. I'll get you for that...

One way or another, this post is informative. Thank you for sharing thoughts.

 

8 hours ago, randuir said:

Okay, I'm having trouble with coming up with someone I'm super suspicious of, so instead I'm going to do a quick list of people I'm either leaning village on, or that I just don't want to lynch this cycle as I believe lynching them would negatively affect activity and information gathering.

Probably village

BrightnessRadiant, as I actually believe her comment about signing up to RP with crimsn and ecth.

Randuir, as I probably haven't misread my GM PM.

Maybe village

Drake, as I don't believe an elim would be actively trying to hold a tie in place of which he himself is part.

Clanky, as he moved too aggressively after Lopen for an elim.

Hopefully still Neutral

Stink

Elbereth

Inactive

Meta

Asterion

Of the 7 remaining drought has only posted only twice thrice (though his second post did contain some game-related stuff), so though I do want him to be more active, he hasn't said enough to justify a lynch this cycle. That leaves these 6:

1. Locke Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai)
2. Budgie (A Budgie)
3. Carrie Brule (Burnt Spaghetti)
4. Shqueeves (Shqueeves)
5. Lopen (TheMightyLopen)
6. Bart Allen (Flash)

I'd like budgie to try and post a bit more regarding her suspicions, as sticking mostly with RP could just be a hiding technique. It could also be as she said,and that she's just looking for something to contribute as this is her first game. Either way, I'd prefer to wait a bit more before starting a lynch on her.

I know I put Orlok on a slight village read before, but (as he himself pointed out, I think), what I saw as village was merely 'good for the game', which I reckon elim!orlok would do as well. I'd prefer not to lynch him this cycle for that reason yet, though.

so, all together, I'd be okay-ish, with lynching Flash, Lopen, Burnt or Shqueeves this cycle. I wanted to actually place a vote right now, but it's late where I'm at, and I want to take another good look at these 4 before voting.

This may be nothing, but I'm kind of noticing that you are paying significantly more attention to the possibility of zeta's alignment changing than most people are. Do you have a vested interest in independent alignments, or is this just a coincidence?

That said, I'd agree with most of your analysis here.

 

7 hours ago, Flash said:

I was planning on doing my analysis today, and voting tomorrow. I want my vote to be well placed. However at the moment I think I'm going to go with my gut and vote drake . 

There isn't a lot I have to support my vote with. Frankly, nobody has really said enough to give me something solid to work with. When going through the thread, I discovered that I found it much easier to get reads on the forest players, because they were saying more. 

That being said, I feel like there are several player metas that people have pointed out have changed. Particularly Rand. Now I'm getting a pretty strong village read from him, but I worry that once again that I say a person is village just because they say a lot. And that bit me in the back in L35. Also in that list is Brightness and asterion  (who I remember being more active, iirc). 

So yeah. I'll change my vote if I have any realizations or see anything suspicious, or agree with someone else pointing out suspicious behavior. 

And @BrightnessRadiant I'll RP with you if you want. I've been unsure what to do with my character since he DIED, but I should probably be able to come up with something. 

 

Edit: some RP, going back in time a bit. 

Bart awoke bleary eyed. The last thing he remembered was tripping, and then something stepping on him, blackness...

Light was all around him. Voices sounded, but he couldn't understand them. Slowly they came into focus. 

"...died... tripped... hollow..."

He finally managed to look around, making sense of his surroundings. A white bed. Lights. 

HUMANS?!!! 

He nearly jumped out of his bed, if he hadn't been restrained. But then he looked down, and to his horror, He was wearing a human body. 

Bart nearly flipped out, spasming on the bed. People rushed over to him, and he passed out. 

This continued for some time. The story of his death by the hands of some foresters was told to him. His heart full of rage, he swore allegiance to the Court. And now he sat in a classroom. Bored. Out. Of. His. Mind. 

They had hinted to him that there might be something else to do, but he didn't know what it was. This education was awful. In extreme desperation, he etherically separated his soul from his body. 

Lo and behold, his classmates were having a great time in the ether. Duh. He should have realized that earlier. This would make education so much easier. 

Not really much room to respond to your accusations, such as they are, so I don't think I have anything to say here.

Glad you found out how we do schooling in the Court though  adds a new meaning to bored out of your mind, doesn't it?

 

4 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Flash aww thanks! (also yeah, I warned when I signed up that I'd be less active heh)  I'll rp with you when I'm done posting lots of analysis heh

Anyways, here's analysis finally!

Let's start with Drake since he seems to be a focal point:

1. okay, first off...why you post so much xD...well that's good but ugh analysis haha.

k, first post is about taking the test if our Gunnerkrigg spies in the woods start getting low....well I think that's a good idea. -village read

2. mmm rules clarifications and rp

3. votes for himself to become Medium and gets attacked by everyone for it xD...that's politics -village read (cuz no one voted for him...and I think at least one teammate would have)

4. Says this cycle 1

Which sounds like more of a villager thing to draw attention to imo.

5. But then proceeds to actually suggest this plan in the name of "experimentation"...which doesn't sound like a good idea heh. -still reading neutral for this cuz I'm not sure if he actually wanted to try it.

6. Still talking about the testing and supposes there might be another secret to the tests. -neutral (cuz everyone is trying to find the secrets in this game heh)

7. conjectures about roles and mourns that our thread is less active than the woods (sorry prob cuz I wasn't here  haha) -neutral read for this post, although he spent a large amount of this day cycle focusing on the secrets of the game rather than discussing a lynch imo. Guess that could be also elim read.

8. Talks about Potatoes and mine fields. -reading fun for this

9. Says that if we can only take the test once then we should wait a little bit to take it. -still reading neutral because both alignments have good reason to wait

10. Says he's not really feeling a lynch, but that we could contribution crusade....why tho...just why. -reading elim for this cuz contribution crusade on cycle one is ugh

11. Talks more about the testing...really interested in switching threads aren't you Drake? heh. -reading neutral to elim (are you trying to find a way to escape the court sir robot? lol)

Night Cycle finally lol:

1. posts about the Mediums having a new win con and then asks if we're going to have a lynch. (oops it's night lol)

2. just jokes and role plays for the rest of the night cycle

NAI for the night cycle

Day 2:

 

1. talks about the Medium's win cons and secret roles -still reading neutral...really ugh heh

2. comments on the woods losing two players and says they should try to figure out if there was a vigilante kill or a serial killer (uh...not that it's not polite to care when people die, but why so interested in woods people dying? Are they your teammates heh ) -kinda neutral to elim

3. Long post answering questions and commenting on other's posts.-reads slightly village to neutral (too long to quote or summarize heh so here's a link)

4. Had said in his last post that he was gonna try and come up with a lynch candidate but then never posts again until this post which was five hours before cycle's end, where he votes for Ecth to tie the votes up, saving himself from the lynch. Says he's probably gonna die that cycle, and gives a parting post on his game thoughts. (I'm really curious to know his alignment at this point cuz he cast suspicion on Lopen, Burnt, and Stink in that farewell address heh) -reading NAI for this post cuz I seriously don't know what to think about it

5. removes his vote from Ecth to keep it a tie when someone else voted Ecth? Odd. and encourages Burnt to post more reads -reading village for this post

6. Is sad cuz the tie was broken -reading confusion xD

uh the end?

Well.....hmmmm can I just say @Drake Marshall one thing for sure is that you're really confusing in this game  (tbh I kinda wanna lynch you just to find out lol)

guess on to the next person analysis...maybe Clanky next.

Edit: forgot to respond to this:

concerning what, dear brother  @TheMightyLopen

The trouble with responding to big posts is that there's no easy way to break it down into multiple small quote boxes. Ah well.

Yes, I do post a lot. I'd apologize, but I'm probably going to continue doing so until somebody decides to kill me for a bit of peace and quiet. If nothing else, activity is my hallmark.

One thing to respond to: "Had said in his last post that he was gonna try and come up with a lynch candidate but then never posts again until this post which was five hours before cycle's end, where he votes for Ecth to tie the votes up" I actually did cast a vote on Burnt in between those two happenings. After Burnt shared more game thoughts I decided to remove my vote, for the time being. I think the relevant post is here.

As for being confusing... Yes. The two things I enjoy most about SE are the unique game mechanics, and trying on as many different approaches as I can. Feel free to scrutinize my motives, but be warned that side effects may include contracting my particular brand of insanity.  Good luck.

 

4 hours ago, Flash said:

Right. WGG. I totally had that right 

I mean it COULD be WWG. It would just be... a wounded water-buffalo gambit. 

Hmm... I think I like the sound of "wounded walrus gambit." 

I've already said, it's not out of the question that I'd do this as an eliminator. So, yes, it's a real possibility.

Although I think you overestimate me if you believe I'd do it as a sneaky ploy to gain trust. I'd probably do it just 'cuz why not. Thinking you are about to die can be liberating, no? 

 

3 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay Clanky's turn to be in the spotlight  @Clanky tagging you so you can respond to my thoughts

1. Says this:

soooo pretty NAI

2. Says he's not gonna vote or be very active cuz of spotty internet - still NAI

3. Says he's trying to focus more on fun for his game meta now and that he's gonna try to be more active after this post - NAI (but yay for fun and activeness haha)

4. Says he'd rather we lynched a forest villager than try to find one among the courties...but....why? -reading elim (cuz it just seems odd and not very productive for the court)

5. voted Lopen for a misunderstanding but then never removes the vote after Lopen explained -reading elim 

6. Says this when questioned about leaving his vote on Lopen:

ehhhh Lopen hasn't really been anti-lynch tho *shrugs. Plus, Clanky even suggested lynching a forester that cycle instead of someone from the Court so how is that really any different from being anti-lynch. Both aren't very helpful. -reading slightly elim for this

7. Speaks up for the Contribution Crusade saying that it could get people more involved -reading kinda NAI for this cuz everyone seems to have varied opinions on the CC (although this seems like the second time he's drawn attention away from an actual lynch, eh *shrugs)

8. This post confused me a bit tbh. Not sure if it's just cuz I've been doing too much analysis and my brain is tired or if it just seems off. Why would you say it's fine to vote someone in the name of the CC just to get their attention, but then condemn Lopen for saying the same thing about Ecth's vote on Shqueeves day 1?

9. Says his reasoning for voting Lopen might not be the best, but he didn't have much time to find suspicions. -reading kinda neutral to village (cuz I know he's busy irl and it seems like he's trying to be involved at least which is good)

all in all....I think I'd like to see a little more from Clanky this cycle before I make any kind of vote on him. Although lynching him might provide a little insight into Lopen and Rand's alignments cuz he's had interactions with both players in thread.

I think I'd be somewhat interested in hearing Clanky respond to this.

 

Alright... I do believe I've read up-to-date on this cycle.

So... I guess here is probably the part that I should talk about who we should lynch.

Last cycle, I narrowed down to a list of potential suspects / potential lynch targets (if you want to see where I'm getting this list, see this post). I'd say that list is still mostly relevant, so rather than making a new one I'm going to stick with that one.

 

Budgie (A Budgie)

 Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf)

Carrie Brule (Burnt Spaghetti)

Lopen (TheMightyLopen)

BrightnessRadiant

 

Of those. Crimsn is dead, and a dead villager at that.

I'd be against lynching Burnt (this cycle, anyway), because she responded to my original vote last cycle, and I think there is less grounds to lynch her now. (that said, I'd be happy to hear more game thoughts today, if you have any to share)

BR is a pretty neutral read. Not my first choice for a lynch this cycle.

I still want to hear more from Budgie. @A Budgie, so far you've continued your pattern of posting mostly RP. I love RP in these games, but I'm still very interested to hear some game thoughts from you. Please share at least who you are reading elim on. Right now, it kind of looks like you are trying to fly under the radar by only posting RP. And I've seen that strategy used effectively before by eliminators.

That all said, you may have guessed by process of elimination that right now, my vote rests on Lopen. @TheMightyLopen All of your actions so far look like they can be attributed to self preservation, and I'm wary of that. Also your main post today kind of felt like you were casting a wide net to throw suspicion on a lot of people without directly committing to a suspicion.

Also. Did you refrain from voting because of the regional faerie thing? That would explain at least some of the post I referenced.

 

EDIT: Oh, I'm forgetting something.

Those were my thoughts on the lynch, but I also wanted to share some thoughts on the game.

Namely, two thoughts:

 

1. How viable does it sound to learn somebody's alignment by having them take the test? They have an above-average shot at being an eliminator in the other thread, meaning that if only a small number of people did this, it would benefit the Court. What's more, their role/alignment should still flip if they test, meaning we get a level of information that is comparable to the lynch.

The one caveat to this is that, obviously, not everybody likes changing alignment. I mean, it means that everything you did prior to the point at which you changed alignment is now actually bad for your new win condition. So... Chances are, most people would prefer switching alignment earlier in the game, if they have the choice.

If y'alls really want, I could pursue this option for myself. I'd be interested in seeing what comes of it. That said, unless people actually want me to do that, I don't think I'm going to.

 

2. Secret alignments. Here's an idea.

It's probably pretty useful to know the nature of all these secret alignments, right?

And, chances are, a lot of these secret alignments are not directly mutually exclusive with our win conditions (unless they are serial killers, but I doubt it). Meaning, in theory we might be able to coexist.

So. What if we all agreed not to lynch the first secret alignment person that revealed themselves and told us their win condition? This offer would be contingent upon the terms that their win condition is not mutually exclusive with our own in any way.

It should also go without saying that if there is evidence that they lied about their win condition, the offer of protection would be void, and we'd lynch them.

Now, seeing as I'm pretty much making a shot in the dark here, I really don't know if this is actually a good idea.

But, I figure that potentially it may be advantageous for us to know some of these things. I'd be willing to coexist with a lesser evil if they described exactly what their agenda is. Plus it would remove a suspe-- oh wait.

Actually that's a terrible idea because the elims could just pretend to be a secret alignment. Forget that I just said any of that. 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Drake, you still seem to be holding on to the idea that I was bandwagoning when I voted on you. It was not bandwagoning, because I was one of the first players, if not the first, to speak out against you. And now that more has happened and there's new posts of yours to analyse, my opinion shifted somewhat. Just because I say I agree with Rand's points about you doesn't mean I didn't have them myself already. I'm just saying I had the same thoughts, because it makes sense, not because I'm following popular opinion.

As for that "suspicions" list I put up earlier, it's actually very similar to yours, I just didn't vote, because I hadn't thought about it enough to put down a vote. But now that I've thought about it some more, I don't think I'd want to lynch Budgie, Burnt, or BR. Budgie is new, and I would like to give them more time to prove themselves. Burnt, well, I'd love it if she'd post some more alignment indicative thoughts, but I think I'd have a better read on her if I'd been able to PM her last Night Turn. BR, well, I just don't want to lynch her right now?

So that leaves Elbereth, Randuir, and Shqueeves. Shqueeves is busy with his sisters wedding I think, so I'd prefer to give him some more time. Between Rand and El, I'd have to go with El, simply because I haven't really gotten any good reads on her posts so far. I'm actually mildly suspicious of both Rand and El, but I've gotten some good vibes from Rand, so I'm voting Elbereth. I realize I might not get a lot of support with this vote, considering I'm not really accusing her of anything, so I'll work on going through her posts tomorrow(as well as the other top voted players) tomorrow to make a better case.