Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[Conquestor]

I also feel that getting rid of inactives would be useful, not for any other reason, but has anyone thought about Autonomy? What kind of murderers people would last the longest, usually? The inactives! And there are a whole boat load of them, also, someone like Zephrer, who comes in and sees what's happening, but doesn't do anything, would last longer. Because they can also react. So, Autonomy wins if all the people in the game are converted to his side. So, as time goes on, it would become more and more dangerous for shards to be passed and even for the 17th shard, because even they can be converted.

[AliasSheep]

3 hours ago, Magestar said:

I don't feel like I, personally, have enough information to conduct a successful lynch at this time.  So I'm going to lynch inactives. They're not helpful to us, so we're not losing anything if we lynch them.

Yes, we don't have enough information to lynch inactives at the moment.  At the very same time, lynching inactives also gets us no information which we can use to lynch usefully in the future.  Lynching inactives is pointless except to waste time.

Conquestor has brought up a valid reason, however.  I am sceptical of it, but it is definitely a valid reason and definitely better than just wanting to kill time.

[Magestar]

2 hours ago, Master Elodin said:

..So you were fine with lynching me because you were talking about me?

I'm actually confused by that statement.  How did you get there?

Possibly another way of explaining this is that I was stating a fact..  Had I been talking about anyone else, I would have said the same thing.  Moving Kas' vote doesn't clear you.  It doesn't.  I was simply stating a fact.

1 hour ago, AliasSheep said:

Yes, we don't have enough information to lynch inactives at the moment.  At the very same time, lynching inactives also gets us no information which we can use to lynch usefully in the future.  Lynching inactives is pointless except to waste time.

So we should instead lynch active people who we have no information about?  I'm confused.  Conq's reasoning is valid, however, so I'll leave that there.

I might just be getting confused because it's Christmas eve and I'm tired.  I'm going to look at this again... Sometime tomorrow.

[AliasSheep]

2 minutes ago, Magestar said:

So we should instead lynch active people who we have no information about?  I'm confused.

We should lynch people to determine their alignments?  To check their arguments and allegiances and whatnot.

[A Joe in the Bush]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The reason it applies is that people seem reluctant to place votes, presumably because they could lead to the death of innocent players. But when given the Cursori role, nobody was reluctant to put in a kill order before the game even started. I just wish people had that same level of aggression here.

Wrong.

4 hours ago, Magestar said:

Actually, if I remember correctly, several people refused to place kill orders.  I believe that the kill would be randomized if you didn't place it, but I might be remembering incorrectly.

Some people targeted the GM, I think.  

That was me. I refused to kill a player, even randomly.

Anyway, I don't have any opinions on the current lynch of Zephrer, and I'm fresh out of plans. Though, in the interest of public information, can we get world updates? Not player lists, unless you want to post them, just, is there any activity? Scadrial has a bit, mostly caused by A----- asking if anyone learned anything from their actions.

[Young Bard]

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, for now, I say we should all pick somebody we don't mind killing, and vote on them. Then, we can decide of the people with votes on them, who we actually suspect. I personally don't mind killing Bard. Of course, there isn't really anybody that I wouldn't care to kill right now, except maybe Kasimir. I missed all of Day 1 due to Amtrak not having internet, for those who didn't catch my post at the start of last cycle.

Sorry everyone - the family Christmas celebrations went from what was originally one dinner, presents, a couple games and a movie to an overnight stay and a 2 day event... So I was out for a lot longer than I expected to be. I first saw this post very late last night when I didn't have the energy to respond to it, and I haven't read all the new posts since I caught up then. I'll try and catch up after I post this.

Uhhh... I take it this is just a poke vote because you saw me watching the thread? I had my computer on, but I wasn't really watching the thread because I was busy with Christmas preparations at home, etc. Sorry that I'm only getting around to responding now.

I was suspicious of Joe, but I feel the suicide plan for the end of Night 3 is something Village!Joe is more likely to do, so now I'm just confused. With Joe's revival, the earliest we'll get any solid information is with Jondesu's passing at the end of Night 2, and that won't even tell us much as they weren't lynched, only killed by an individual role. I felt Harambe was way too determined to return Joe, though, but I won't vote for him just yet, because they're new, and therefore both more difficult to read because of their individual playstyle and should be given a fair chance to get into the game before we kill them.

My reads on Sheep and Lopen will change depending on Joe's revealed alignment, but I can't really say anything certain for now. Elodin, I feel fairly neutral towards, maybe even a slight trust read, because I think that if they were Eliminator buddies and Joe had been lynched, they could just deny they were invested and prevent themselves getting tangled up in the lie, reducing suspicion on them, especially from the 'real' Cultivation, if that wasn't Joe. Then, Joe almost certainly wouldn't announce the suicide plan if he knew a fellow Eliminator would be brought down with him once his role/alignment were revealed.

That's all I have time for right now, unfortunately. I'll probably continue along this train of thought in a couple hours, or possibly later - I don't really know. Sorry :/

[Dalinar Kholin]

I'm not super thrilled with voting against Magestar. In the past couple of games I've consistently been suspicious of Magestar's style, but nonetheless he has not been guilty. I also have nothing else to add and agree that, sad is it might be, we need to start somewhere. @A Joe in the Bush Roshar is currently pretty quiet, just some small talk about my homeland and a sense of quiet before the coming storm.

[Araris Valerian]

@The Young Bard, it was more to just get a vote out there. I didn't know you were lurking, I just wanted to demonstrate that for the most part none of us should trust each other, and thus we should be fine with killing just about anybody. The people that aren't fine with that are the eliminators, so responses to that sort of thing can help find them.

[Droughtbringer]

Taladin had some chat earlier...but nothing for the paat several hours.

[Darkness Ascendant]

Why are people calling Taldain Taladin?

Also, I approve of your pun @Master Elodin

Also, I am inactive currently due to unexpected items of...business shall we call it. Should be fine in a couple of days tops

[manukos]

@Seonid sorry to bother you but can we have a tally so far as well as some verification of whether the vote was transferred to @Darkness Ascendant or not.

[Kasimir]

Fair enough, Joe. Thank you.

I'll be honest and agree it wouldn't confirm now!Elodin - just as no one at this point (probably with the exception of Joe, if he is a Villager) is confirmed Team Shard. Simply because we know Team Hoid could get off a conversion last night, and at an early stage in a conversion game, no one should be 100% confirmed. But at this point, my main aim in asking is frankly just to get a better sense of Elodin and Joe - and I'll admit that if it seems Elodin was invested in, then either Elodin and Joe were both on Team Hoid, or they're legit. The lack of protest from Cultivation, to add to that, means that if Elodin is invested, I would be more inclined to trust them both, as compared to my default position of distrust on everyone (but not completely because I'm paranoid >>)

Stick (1): Alv
Bard (0): Araris<1>
Sart (1): Kasimir<1>
Zephrer (2): Magestar, Conquestor
Magestar (2): Elodin, Araris<2>

I believe Kipper himself has said that doing up a vote tally is not rocket science...and I also believe it is likely against GM policy for the GM to confirm if a player has put in an action until later on. Not sure what people are saying with regard to a Zephrer lynch - we don't have a lynch right now, we have a tie. Which means there will be no lynch today, as things currently stand.

Personally, I'm not so much for going after inactives/lurkers, and especially not right now. It's Christmas season, and people are going to be busy. And we're not very precise at picking up lurkers - just remember how many people dogpiled onto Arinian in QF20 before we realised: A. he was a villager, B. he just happened to have the tab open. My suggestion would be to do up a list of inactives and to wait a little for the 26th/27th before we start either: A. putting pressure on the inactives in the lynches, or B. putting them in a list of people whom it would be nice if Ruin / Odium night-killed. I would prefer if our Voidbringers were more careful with their kills since if they ran out, they'd be at the mercy of Cultivation.

I would, in part, also prefer night-killing inactives, since I think it would encourage lurkers to come out of the woodwork, and because I think that night-killing inactives prevents us from having to waste time voting for people who just aren't going to respond. (Notice the lurker/inactive distinction, here.) However, the main weakness is that this would depend on our kill roles and potentially, Odium, being willing to do what needs to be done. It's not clear Odium has enough incentive to do that (it certainly can't hurt to ask), and it's not clear Ruin wants to do that either. (They either did not like the world destroying plan, or they were inactive, meaning that after one more cycle, the Shard will pass.)

Edit: Essentially, I think that Day 3/Night 3 is a good time to start on the inactives.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

14 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I also feel that getting rid of inactives would be useful, not for any other reason, but has anyone thought about Autonomy? What kind of murderers people would last the longest, usually? The inactives! And there are a whole boat load of them, also, someone like Zephrer, who comes in and sees what's happening, but doesn't do anything, would last longer. Because they can also react. So, Autonomy wins if all the people in the game are converted to his side. So, as time goes on, it would become more and more dangerous for shards to be passed and even for the 17th shard, because even they can be converted.

While I agree with most of this, I'd like to point out that according to his profile, Zephrer hasn't been online since before Mage voted on him, which means he hasn't seen the votes yet. Until Zephrer posts something on his defence, I'm going to leave my vote on Harambe, because he- quite suspiciously- misused the word 'doc', I've seen too many newbies feigning ignorance, and I've become rather paranoid. I know that's barely a reason, but it's all I've got given the limited information we have. I also know that my vote isn't really influencing the lynch, which is why I might change my vote to Zephrer if nothing else changes. 

[Kasimir]

Just now, I_am_a_Stick said:

While I agree with most of this, I'd like to point out that according to his profile, Zephrer hasn't been online since before Mage voted on him, which means he hasn't seen the votes yet. Until Zephrer posts something on his defence, I'm going to leave my vote on Harambe, because he- quite suspiciously- misused the word 'doc', I've seen too many newbies feigning ignorance, and I've become rather paranoid. I know that's barely a reason, but it's all I've got given the limited information we have. I also know that my vote isn't really influencing the lynch, which is why I might change my vote to Zephrer if nothing else changes. 

Cycle has been extended by 24 hours, I believe, making this a 72 hour cycle. We still got plenty of time.

Stick (1): Alv
Bard (0): Araris<1>
Sart (1): Kasimir<1>
Zephrer (2): Magestar, Conquestor
Magestar (2): Elodin, Araris<2>
Harambe (1): Stick

[Magestar]

I'm happy to take my vote off of Zephrer, but I'll note that I don't have a better idea.  The arguments against voting for Zephrer have been pretty well thought out, and what Kas said about Christmas convinced me to stop voting on innactives for now.   However, I do think that, in a few cycles, we should start night-killing inactives.

@Master Elodin, @Araris Valerian, have I answered your suspicions satisfactorily?

I'm going to look over the thread again today, and try and pull out a suspicion or two.  Hopefully I'll find something of note.

edit;  I forgot to post this, and got ninja'd twice.  @Zephrer, anything to say in your defense?

I don't know if I've pinged him before this.  I'd also be open to a Harambe lynch.  (Wow that sounds odd.)  I tend to give newbies a chance, but I think his lynch will give us some information, and I don't have any better ideas right now.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Magestar

[Master Elodin]

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm happy to take my vote off of Zephrer, but I'll note that I don't have a better idea.  The arguments against voting for Zephrer have been pretty well thought out, and what Kas said about Christmas convinced me to stop voting on innactives for now.   However, I do think that, in a few cycles, we should start night-killing inactives.

@Master Elodin, @Araris Valerian, have I answered your suspicions satisfactorily?

I'm going to look over the thread again today, and try and pull out a suspicion or two.  Hopefully I'll find something of note.

edit;  I forgot to post this, and got ninja'd twice.  @Zephrer, anything to say in your defense?

I don't know if I've pinged him before this.  I'd also be open to a Harambe lynch.  (Wow that sounds odd.)  I tend to give newbies a chance, but I think his lynch will give us some information, and I don't have any better ideas right now.

For now, I will remove my vote from Magestar and instead place a vote on Harambe. I remember the first thing that anyone ever told me here- that it was okay to be a little confused, but playing the newbie card too often gets you heavily scrutinized. @harambe, mind giving a more expansive defense of yourself instead of just offhandedly denying large mistakes?

Edited December 25, 2016 by Master Elodin
........?...... spot the odd one out

[Arinian]

Let's kill every active player. I sure it's gonna be fun! 

[Conquestor]

Well, to be honest, I very much Harambe and would not like to lynch him. I will, however take my vote off of Zephrer, because of Christmas. (Your welcome, merry Christmas! ) Also, did anyone else notice the amount of votes that Harambe got, I mean I know that he said docs, but a villager is more likely to misuse words than a eliminator, because the eliminator can't die, they've got fewer players to lose.

[Master Elodin]

With regards to world PMs, Threnody is just Silence. Montane.

 

[Stick.]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

 Also, did anyone else notice the amount of votes that Harambe got

Two?  I know he's up for the lynch rn, but honestly, I really don't think that's going to last much long 

[manukos]

@Master Elodinwait , what of what i said was weird ?

@Kasimir offered a plan of you moving a vote to @Darkness Ascendant as a plan of clearing any suspicion of you beng odium/autonomy and joe your converted

i just asked if it happened ?

 

[Conquestor]

1 hour ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Two?  I know he's up for the lynch rn, but honestly, I really don't think that's going to last much long 

I'm just saying, it doesn't sound like much, but considering that everyone is a little "shy" to vote, it just seems a little weird to me.

[Magestar]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

I'm just saying, it doesn't sound like much, but considering that everyone is a little "shy" to vote, it just seems a little weird to me.

It was weird that I was up for lynch.  I didn't even do anything.  Harambe has done quite a few odd things.  Still, they're a new player, and even though that's a tired old excuse, I'm sticking to not insta-lynching new players on there first game.

[Master Elodin]

45 minutes ago, harambe said:

@Master Elodinwait , what of what i said was weird ?

@Kasimir offered a plan of you moving a vote to @Darkness Ascendant as a plan of clearing any suspicion of you beng odium/autonomy and joe your converted

i just asked if it happened ?

 

Nearly everything, including the overplaying of the newbie card. That wasn't all, but asking the GM to confirm actions while the Iynch is still being debated is a strange mistake, possibly you trying to emphasize your newness. 

Edited December 25, 2016 by Master Elodin
grey or gray or grae

[manukos]

23 minutes ago, Master Elodin said:

Nearly everything, including the overplaying of the newbie card. That wasn't all, but asking the GM to confirm actions while the Iynch is still being debated is a strange mistake, possibly you trying to emphasize your newness. 

yeah spot on..... not

 i just wanted verification because if you didnt , you become a suspect since it is possible that you could had not been invested , an idea which i found ludacris but now seems possible from how you opposed me when i asked for proof