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Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance


Nyali

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Okay, this Day 1 thread has been really active. I've been trying to stay caught up, but I've skimmed more than read more than I'd like. So first I'll comment on a few things.

14 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

Now, I'm fairly certain that one of the Independents or the person claiming the Non-Eliminator Faction is lying, and is secretly part of Rayse's gang. Which still means we have a 2:1:3 Village: Eliminator: Neutral Ratio, which is extraordinarily biased towards the Eliminators.

Do you have any particular reason you're suspicious of those two people, or are you just assuming there's probably an eliminator on your world and picking those two as the most likely? Because if it's the latter, it could be possible both are telling the truth and the ratio is 2:0:4 Village:Eliminator:Neutral for your world (and other worlds are probably different). I'm not sure how likely it is, especially without knowing who you are talking about and what makes them suspicious, but it's something to consider.

12 hours ago, STINK said:

Btw, who was the first person to say Child that everyone knows? For me, the first person that actually said 'Child' referring to alignment was Joe.

Joe is the first one I saw it from in the thread or my world PM. It sounds like someone in Bard's PM might have said it before Joe though. The timing and details of that might determine how plausible it is that the one on Bard's world could have influenced Joe. 

5 hours ago, AliasSheep said:

Well, from the Common Powers, most of the kills I can see are for Player(local), so I imagine that's more likely; that being said, a cross-world kill could definitely be a hidden ability.

The eliminator kill is one ability I'd expect to be for Player (all) instead of Player (local). Other suspicious actions can probably be tracked by world, but it's probably not good to assume their kills can. It seems like when eliminator kills have been influenced by something like worlds in past games the eliminators have found it really claustrophobic.

3 hours ago, Clanky said:

For people that have played with Magestar before, is it usual to have this many random statements of innocence? It just seems to me like someone trying to act as far from an eliminator as possible and making sure everybody knows it.

I don't remember random statements of innocence exactly in LG25, but there were times he tried to look villagery without being really helpful. He also was a bit too quick to bandwagon there. I think he's acting pretty typical for him in this game. Granted, he might do the same as an eliminator, but I agree with Aman that he really sounds a lot more like a member of a neutral faction than one of God's Own Hate.

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Magestar, what odd things has Straw done in your world PM?

@Magestar I'd also be interested to know about this if you can give more specific information. If there's a legitimate reason to suspect him, that's something the thread should discuss.

 

And now for lynch discussion. I'm going to start this out by saying I'm not even sure we should lynch someone the first day. We've had a lot of good discussion today that doesn't even have to do with the lynch. While we usually want to lynch the first day to get information about the players involved, that doesn't work when nothing about the lynchee is revealed. It doesn't get us any information, which is the thing we most desperately need right now. I think we'll do better gathering information with night actions. Also, I don't want to accidentally lynch someone who I need alive for one of my win conditions. It is entirely possible someone like that could be an Independent or otherwise neutral. So I think it is best to use the lynch with precision in this game.

So on to the lynch conversation. To start out, here's a current vote tally (even though it hasn't changed much since the last one):

Mage (4): Araris, Joe, Sheep, Stink
Ecth (2): Bard, Aman
Stink (1): Elenion
PK (1): Rae
Straw (1): Ecth
Rae (1): PK
Joe (1): Silverblade
Aman (1): Darkness
Silverblade (1): Wilson

I do not want to lynch Stink. He has been contributing to the thread and trying to get discussion going. I also don't feel like he's really been suspicious. I'm glad to see that most of the votes have been removed from him.

Mage has the most votes right now. The reasons seem to be that (1) he has made it clear that he is not a villager and (2) he endorsed bandwagoning.

For (1), while it is clear that he is not a villager, it seems unlikely that he's an eliminator. Being neutral would be a reasonable reason to lynch him if we had to lynch someone so we at least know we're not lynching a Child, but we don't have to. So that's not a reason to lynch him as long as he isn't ditching neutrality to work for Odium.

For (2), this one is trickier. The thing is, making sure all the villagers were voting on the same person at the end of the day was very important in LG25 due to all their vote manipulation. Having just come off that game, I can see why Mage thought that was a good idea. (I'm actually going to feel a bit bad if he gets lynched for trying to follow a strategy that I pushed for in a previous game.) I hope he has realized from the responses to him that he shouldn't be using that strategy in this game. If he's going to vote reasonably and try to help find Rayse and his allies, there's no reason to lynch him.

If we're going to lynch someone, I'd prefer it to be a member of God's Own Hate. Of those with votes I think Ecth or Silverblade would be our best bet. But I'm not strongly suspicious of either of them (I'm mostly just suspicious because based on what people have said it seems they voted on villagers), so I really think no lynch is the best choice for this cycle. Lynching the wrong person, even a neutral, could be bad for some villagers this game, so I want to approach the lynch with caution.

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Finally decided to get my lazy self out of bed.

Lily brings up a good point. If Rayse can truly attack anyone he pleases, regardless of their location, then a lot of the tactics I've suggested are pointless. I still believe we should implement ways to mitigate the damage if that isn't the case, but we should also consider the alternative, or else we might end up running ourselves off a steep cliff in the pursuit of false leads.

I really do think that ensuring no one dies today is the best course of action. Even if someone openly declares themselves able to discover information about the dead and is willing to share that information with the thread, there's no guarantee that it won't be lies to cover up Rayse's schemes. Also, on the subject of vote manipulation, to the best of my comprehensive ability, it seems the relevant common powers require advanced notice; as in, you must declare what you're going to do the next day, during the night. So in other words, we shouldn't have anything to fear right now regarding that.

I've noticed a few others who would prefer to not act rashly. If you agree with Lily and I, please help instigate a tie. There's only four and a half hours left before the sun sets, and personally I'd rather us not shed any blood with so little evidence to support it and potentially no information to gain.

Edited by Amanuensis
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18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I've noticed a few others who would prefer to not act rashly. If you agree with Lily and I, please help instigate a tie. There's only four and a half hours left before the sun sets, and personally I'd rather us not shed any blood with so little evidence to support it and potentially no information to gain.

I think the turn ends at 10pm EST, despite what the countdown timer says, so we only have about two hours. I'd prefer it if people removed their votes so everyone has two or fewer, but I'd be willing to help tie it up if people don't want to remove their votes. We'd need a few more people to do it with things as they stand. I think it's possible that there are passives or free actions that could change the vote count, but most vote manipulation probably would come from actives used the night before so we don't have to worry about it today.

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Well, I'm gong to vote for Stink because there is no better option IMO.  Sorry Stink, if you are a villager.  

If anyone does not think I should die, than I would totally appreciate people voting for Stink, or anyone else.  

I hope to see you guys in the morning.  -sigh-

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Sorry guys for not being around to post - yesterday was the last day of uni for the next two weeks, and I had a ton of stuff to get done. Given there's only two hours left, I'm probably not going to vote this cycle, unless I get a good proper read through of the thread done, and feel strongly enough about a player.

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I feel like we're basically asking for vote manipulation by tying up the vote. But there's at least a chance that no one will die by doing so, so I'll join that plan. Because if someone does die, I'm fairly confident that it won't be an elim. I don't see any good reason to lynch someone on day 1. 

I'll be on again right before rollover starts.

Edited by Frozen Mint
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There's a lot to catch up on...  

I must say I like Bards idea of tracking kills in each planet. Sure, there may be a cross world kill ability, but at the very least we could find and stop any trigger happy people. 

Ive played two games with Mage, and I must say, he seems to have a talent for getting lynched. Two games with him, both times in my side, and I wanted to lynch him. He likes to troll for a bit, and it doesn't help that his defenses always seem to be digging  a deeper hole for him and making him look more suspicious. I'd be inclined to watch him for now, I may be wrong, but I see mage as an unhelpful independent for now. 

I dislike day one lynches,  as we're essentially firing shots in the dark to see how people respond, and in this game roles aren't even revealed on death. I really don't want to lynch anyone I may have to interact with ad part of my goals, so I have abstained from voting all this while. 

However, Aman and lily have convinced me to help the the vote. Ecthelion  

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Yeah... Scratch that.  Stink has only one vote. :P  Need to read thread before I do these things.  I guess the next best option, as far as having any number of votes on them is Ecth, as Aman suggests.  Well, I said I would help firm up the lynch.  Stink

Ecthelion.  Call this bandwagoning if you will:  I'm going to try and firm up the lynch. I don't really care if Stink dies instead of me, so tying the lynch presents no problems for me. 

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Well, now's as good a time as any to switch my vote. Arraenae. Ecthelion.

And call me paranoid, but if you're an independent with a vote manipulation ability, I'd recommend not using it this first cycle.

Edited by Paranoid King
Heh. Messed up the colors. And the spelling.
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8 minutes ago, Magestar said:
 
 

Yeah... Scratch that.  Stink has only one vote. :P  Need to read thread before I do these things.  I guess the next best option, as far as having any number of votes on them is Ecth, as Aman suggests.  Well, I said I would help firm up the lynch.  Stink

Ecthelion. Call this bandwagoning if you will:  I'm going to try and firm up the lynch. I don't really care if Stink dies instead of me, so tying the lynch presents no problems for me. 

Magestar, the idea here isn't to "firm a lynch" on someone other than you. It's to prevent an unnecessary death.

1 minute ago, Paranoid King said:
 
 
 

Well, now's as good a time as any to switch my vote. Arraenae. Ecthlion.

And call me paranoid, but if you're an independent with a vote manipulation ability, I'd recommend not using it this first cycle.

You do realize this vote breaks the tie, yes?

Edited by Amanuensis
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5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

You do realize this vote breaks the tie, yes?

 

1 hour ago, luckat said:

Mage (4): Araris, Joe, Sheep, Stink
Ecth (2): Bard, Aman

4-2

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Magestar, a neutral who is unhelpful only assists the eliminators.

5-2

12 minutes ago, Doctor12 said:

However, Aman and lily have convinced me to help the the vote. Ecthelion  

5-3

12 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Ecthelion.  Call this bandwagoning if you will:  I'm going to try and firm up the lynch. I don't really care if Stink dies instead of me, so tying the lynch presents no problems for me. 

5-4

4 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Well, now's as good a time as any to switch my vote. Arraenae. Ecthelion.

And call me paranoid, but if you're an independent with a vote manipulation ability, I'd recommend not using it this first cycle.

5-5

 

 

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