Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 9/17/2016 at 4:29 PM, Bugsy6912 said:

 

I'm going to refrain from saying because it would reveal straw's world as well. And I was on because I was PMing straw about why, exactly, he should never make a knowledge market unless he's asking for people to kill him 

That's fine. Not too important for me to know, but I just had an odd thought I felt like exploring. Pretty sure I figured it out anyway.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Bugsy he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

That's fine. Not too important for me to know, but I just had an odd thought I felt like exploring. Pretty sure I figured it out anyway.

Hmm, if you share the thought I can confirm the world. You seem to have pretty good insight, typically.

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 9/17/2016 at 4:33 PM, Bugsy6912 said:

Hmm, if you share the thought I can confirm the world. You seem to have pretty good insight, typically.

Well, I believe Magestar belonged to a faction other than the Children of Adonalsium or God's Own Hate. He also said he believed PK was the same faction, who openly said he is on Scadrial. On top of that he said he wasn't a member of the 17th Shard, but that I was was the closest in interpreting a third party win con. I recall him implying his home world was one of the ones we can access too, but I'm less sure about that. Therefore I THINK I know what his affiliation is and thus his home world. I've also theorized that a vast majority of people started somewhere they weren't originally from, which leaves only two places left he could be. 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Straw he/him]

Free info:

Key:

V=Verified 

P=Probable

M=Maybe

Confirmed Roles:

  Khriss:

    Goals: Study various things.P

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent.V

    Homeworld: Taladin

  Nahz:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent.V

    Homeworld: Thredony 

  Frost:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent/Children of Adonaslium.P

    Homeworld: ?

  Demoux:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Children of Adonaslium/Independent.P

    Homeworld: Scadrial

  Galladon:

    Goals: Kill Hoid.P

    Skills: AonDor.P

    Alignment: Children of Adonaslium.V

    Homeworld: Sel

  Odium:

    Goals: Kill Harmony.P

    Skills: Kill action.P

    Alignment: God's Own Hate.V

    Homeworld: Roshar

  Autonomy:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent.P

    Homeworld: Taladin

  Cultivation:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent.P

    Homeworld: Roshar

  Kelsier:

    Goals: Kill The Lord Ruler.P

    Skills: Allomancy.P

    Alignment: Independent.P

    Homeworld: Scradrial 

  Harmony:

    Goal: Survive.P

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Children of Adonaslium.P

    Homeworld: Scradrial 

  Endowment:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: Independent.P

    Homeworld: Nalthis

  Hoid:

    Goals: Survive.M

    Skills: Allomancy.M

    Alignment: Independent.P

    Homeworld: ?

  Shade of Thredony:

    Goals: ?

    Skills: ?

    Alignment: ?

    Homeworld: Thredony 

Edited September 17, 2016 by Straw

[Bugsy he/him]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Well, I believe Magestar belonged to a faction other than the Children of Adonalsium or God's Own Hate. 

I can confirm that he said that in the world PM as well

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I've also theorized that a vast majority of people started somewhere they weren't originally from, which leaves only two places left he could be. 

He was on Taldain with me

[Amanuensis he/him]

On 9/17/2016 at 4:52 PM, Bugsy6912 said:

 

 

 

I can confirm that he said that in the world PM as well

He was on Taldain with me

I figured  it came to that or Sel, and I was leaning Taldain. For the record, there's a few players who plan on remaining here in Nalthis and keep track of who comes and goes, so I've decided to worldhop back to my homeworld like I planned to initially.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Young Bard he/him]

12 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Bard, why did you last minute vote switch?

Because I felt it was the best choice available to me, for a number of reasons.

There has been a question of whether or not a Day 1 lynch is advisable in many previous games. Ultimately, the answer has usually been a resounding 'yes', because the results of the lynch can then either cast suspicion on, or absolve, various players from being an Eliminator. However, people decided this should not be the case this game because results are not revealed, so we do not gain information from a Day 1 lynch...

Except we do. I confirmed, soon followed by Wilson, that there are scans on dead players available, and I'm fairly certain that if there are 2 of us that have revealed to the thread, there's probably one player that also has an ability like that, and hasn't revealed yet. Now, even supposing I were an Eliminator, and attempted to give out false readings to suit my purpose, we have another player now that can verify doubtful scans, meaning that there's a much greater chance of getting caught, and with that risk, I'm a lot less likely to try in the first place.

In addition, suppose we didn't have a Day 1 lynch, because there wasn't enough evidence. What then? Night 1, we have at least one kill from God's Own Hate, SK Independents, Child Vigilantes (oh god...) that may or may not be right, and none of the causes of death, roles, or alignments are revealed. Now, even if I'd come out, and I was on the same world as one of the deceased, I still wouldn't be able to send in the order to scan their deaths until Night 2, to reveal on Day 3, by which chance there could well have been another pile-up of bodies. So, on Day 2, what will you do? You still have no evidence, so do you not have a lynch on that day either? Do you keep letting the body count rise, until God's Own Hate outnumbers the Children and they accomplish their win con? Remember, we only outnumber them 2:1:3 if my world is anything to go by...

And finally, I did want to scan a body, as Ecth pointed out, because that is my main ability and I have a win con based on that ability. In fact, I probably had more reason to vote for Mage than anyone else in the thread (as people in my World PM know), but I chose not to until the last hour of the game because I felt the faction goal, particularly with the ratios so close, was a lot more urgent.

And I say last hour, because I made it quite clear what I was going to do 45 minutes before the game ended, as I posted here. For those who can't be bothered clicking on the link, here's a quote of the relevant paragraph.

Quote

Right now it's a tie between Ecth and Mage. I am in support of a Day 1 lynch, particularly since I can confirm the roles/alignments of dead players, so I will do what I can in order to make sure a Day 1 lynch happens, as it tells us (me in particular) information. For the sake of not appearing to vote change at the last second, I'll say this now. If it remains a tie at rollover, I'll swap my vote from Ecth to Mage. If Ecth pulls ahead, I'll keep my vote where it is. If Mage pulls ahead, I'll swap my vote to Mage in order to be more sure that there won't be vote manipulations to prevent a lynch. Mage, I'm sorry if you get lynched because of me, but it's the most logical choice available to me.

(bolded done just now)

So, yes, technically, it was a last second lynch. But as far as last second lynches go, it's probably the most open and honest last second lynches in the history of SE, and I don't regret my choice.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

On 9/16/2016 at 10:14 PM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Eheheh.... hey guys! So yep im playing now! Woo! Now excuse me while i hide under a rock while i process my role and read the thread XD

Yay! I expect a full post responding to every single topic of discussion soon then.

 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Yay! I expect a full post responding to every single topic of discussion soon then.

 

............ i...... um... *sits in silence*  great....  *groans*  thats...... ......meep.... rip me. 

[Bugsy he/him]

Any thoughts, @Burnt Spaghetti? Discussion seems to have stagnated, unfortunately. A new view would be appreciated  

[livinglegend]

Bridge Boy, If it is convenient for you, meet me on Roshar. I have some information you may find relevant.

[Bugsy he/him]

14 minutes ago, livinglegend said:

Bridge Boy, If it is convenient for you, meet me on Roshar. I have some information you may find relevant.

Any particular reason you want to communicate with Bridge Boy specifically? I don't recall any significant degree of interaction between the two of you in thread, and I doubt you're on the same planet if you're discussing rendezvous plans publicly in the main thread. That makes me think you may be a part of the same faction if you're planning to meet up with no other motive or even basic discussion.

From what I understand, none of the CoA know the identities of the others, so you probably aren't part of that group. GoH is likely an open faction, and I doubt you'd discuss plans in-thread when you have a pm/doc, so you probably aren't a member of that group, either. Are you possibly a member of the 3rd faction Magestar is believed to have been part of?

Edited September 18, 2016 by Bugsy6912
Broke up a run on sentence

[Arraenae]

35 minutes ago, Bugsy6912 said:

Any particular reason you want to communicate with Bridge Boy specifically? I don't recall any significant degree of interaction between the two of you in thread, and I doubt you're on the same planet if you're discussing rendezvous plans publicly in the main thread. That makes me think you may be a part of the same faction if you're planning to meet up with no other motive or even basic discussion.

From what I understand, none of the CoA know the identities of the others, so you probably aren't part of that group. GoH is likely an open faction, and I doubt you'd discuss plans in-thread when you have a pm/doc, so you probably aren't a member of that group, either. Are you possibly a member of the 3rd faction Magestar is believed to have been part of?

It could also be an IKYK. There's no reason for GOH to discuss plans in-thread, so that's exactly why they're doing it. This doesn't mean that livinglegend and BB must be GOH, it just means that asking to meet up is non-alignment indicative.

[Bugsy he/him]

Just now, Arraenae said:

It could also be an IKYK. There's no reason for GOH to discuss plans in-thread, so that's exactly why they're doing it. This doesn't mean that livinglegend and BB must be GOH, it just means that asking to meet up is non-alignment indicative.

Fair enough, in terms of GoH. I do think that it more or less excludes them from being CoA, though, if the motive for meeting was factional affiliations, because they wouldn't have any way to know the alignment of the other

[Straw he/him]

Didn't Bridge boy say he was looking for kaladin? If so livinglegend might have info on kaladin.

[Nyali she/her]

5 hours remain. Thank you to those who have already submitted actions.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Didn't Bridge boy say he was looking for kaladin? If so livinglegend might have info on kaladin.

I had forgotten that. That's certainly possible 

[little wilson she/her]

But how would he have information on Kaladin before Night 1 ends, unless he is Kaladin himself? We haven't gotten any results back from actions, so no one knows anything about anyone else, outside of what's been said in the thread or world PMs, and I guarantee that livinglegend doesn't know about Kaladin because of the world PM. He's on my world.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 minute ago, little wilson said:

But how would he have information on Kaladin before Night 1 ends, unless he is Kaladin himself? We haven't gotten any results back from actions, so no one knows anything about anyone else, outside of what's been said in the thread or world PMs, and I guarantee that livinglegend doesn't know about Kaladin because of the world PM. He's on my world.

He could be Syl, possibly

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

From the rules post, I would guess that Syl is an item.

[Elithanathile he/him]

4 hours ago, Straw said:

Didn't Bridge boy say he was looking for kaladin? If so livinglegend might have info on kaladin.

Nope, I never said that.

[Straw he/him]

17 minutes ago, Bridge Boy said:

Nope, I never said that.

Interesting. What would you think of this quote copy pasted directly from page 7, Day 1: "If I need to find Kaladin for a totally-not-assassination quest"

[Amanuensis he/him]

In case the eliminators can only kill someone on their own planet and they decide to choose me for their target, here is a list of everyone who I began on Nalthis with, in descending order from who I am currently most suspicious to least. Keep in mind these are all Cycle 1 reads, so they aren’t founded on much and thus likely inaccurate, but if my theory is correct, I'd bet it's one of the first three before the rest (though dow and Dalinar are just a hair from being tied). Although our PM didn't have much discussion, I’ll include some notes I took based on things people have said.

1. TheMightyLopen: Lopen agreed with a comment I made about Sheep’s vote being the most suspicious from the bandwagon on Stink. This is the only player relevant thing he commented on in the PM; the rest of it is mostly small talk and discussion about mechanics. Most of my reason for suspecting Lopen is because he's been so quiet and has yet to let anything slip about himself yet. Not necessarily alignment indicative, but I try to make it a habit of trusting the person who I know nothing about the least.
2. I_am_a_Stick: Stick hasn't really say much of anything, though in the beginning he thought Nalthis began with 10 players and then assumed the others had 6 each (he was counting the GMs and a Cognitive Shadow, I think… honest mistake or deliberate misdirection? Likely the first, given how new he is). Also asks about the inactivity filter at some point, but comments on nothing else regarding the players and the game. Ultimately I'm suspicious of him for the same reason I am Lopen, though naturally I've given him more leeway because he's much newer to this.
3. dowanx: Dow wanted to lynch Mage for information. Said that if he was evil Joe should be cleared. Also said he wouldn’t mind lynching Stink despite him not thinking he was evil, due to his play style. I then pointed out that role and alignment is not learned on death. He said he misunderstood that aspect of the rules and mentioned information being the primary reason he wanted to lynch Mage, but did not explicitly state he changed his mind about lynching him. Regardless, he never voted; generally I find it suspicious when someone says they want someone to die but won't vote for them. Said he would read the rules more thoroughly when he had the time.
4. Dalinar Kholin: Dalinar says he doesn’t believe Stink or Sheep are evil because of how much attention they drew to themselves this early. I can see that with Stink, though I don’t really get how what Sheep’s done can be perceived in the same way. Earlier Dalinar had posted something in thread that made me lean village read on him, but this makes me wonder if he was attempting to dissuade Lopen and I from looking at Sheep disfavorably (which would imply them being members of an open faction, of which there’s only one I’m certain exists… Rayse’s).
5. Silverblade5: Silverblade believed Joe and Mage were sharing a faction. Conflicts with my own read of those two players, and I don’t really understand how he reached the conclusion. Not sure if he still thinks it or not. If it's true, Silverblade might have access to more information than he should. Otherwise I don't think he is evil (he seems to not be playing much differently than LG24), but I would not rule him out entirely.
6. Conquestor: Similarly to Lopen and Stick, Conq has been quiet, but what he did say, he did so too early in the game for me to believe it was a ploy, and it was significant enough for me to believe he is not a member of Team Odium, at the very least.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elbereth she/her]

The Night has ended! Please do not post or PM. 

[Nyali she/her]

LG26: Day Two - Swan Dive

 

Standing in front of a desk near the top of a tall building, a figure rummaged through some papers. The figure didn't know what they were looking for, but they were sure it was here, somewhere. "Aha!" they exclaim, holding up a sheet and turn to go. Standing in the doorway out of the room is another figure, clad all in black.
 

"Who's there?" asked the first, still holding the paper in hand. "What do you want at this late hour?"
 

The figure in the doorway smiles, their eyes shrouded in darkness. "Your death," it says, simply and in a flurry of speed, the darkness rushed forward catching the one at the desk by surprise. Seconds later, a body tumbles from the office's window and falls ten stories. What happened to the body at the bottom? Who can say, for the defenestrator did not stay behind to see their handiwork.
 

Later, curious crowds drawn by the noise looked over at the blood smeared ground where a body should be, and yet, there was nothing there.

 

---

 

No one has died in the night.
 

Day 2 has begun and will last 46 hours.

 

I'm certain I made some mistakes. I apologize in advance for them - this is hard to keep track of, and it took a considerable amount of time.

 

Player List

Magestar (Magestar)

The Healer (Doctor12)

Iohn (Iohn)

Lorien the Rithmatist (Conquestor)

Stick (I_am_a_Stick)

Jonly the Terrisman (The Only Joe)

NeLaar (Arraenae)

Spike (Paranoid King)

Ryth (Silverblade5)

Riza (Frozen Mint)

Ecthelion (Ecthelion III)

Kyla (Little Wilson)

The Young Bard (The Young Bard)

? (Burnt Spaghetti)

Brandon Sanderson (Darkness Ascendant)

Aralis (Araris Valerian)

Dr. Idem Occulta (Wonko the Sane)

Kelen Taldar (AliasSheep)

Gladium Paleas (Straw)

Victor (Amanuensis)

Bugsy (Bugsy6912)

Locke (OrlokTsubodai)

Dowanx (Dowanx)

Tom (Sart)

Kaloo (TheMightyLopen)

Unknown (Mark IV)

mmhmmnmhmm (LivingLegend)

Cy Lon (Clanky)

Emrys Morge (Bridge Boy)

Reginald Canuck (Dalinar Kholin)

Orik Ironfist (Haelbarde)

Lily (Luckat)

Odin (Stink)