Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance

[Mint11 she/her]

49 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

First of all, I'd like to soundly agree with the "not having a clue" theory. This makes it very difficult for me to analyze posts. However, I would disagree with your assumption. Why does there need to be a clear incentive? The eliminators have a private doc (right?), thus they have more information. The villagers don't. The more information available will thus more probably aid the villagers (who will be unaware of said information), then the eliminators (who will generally be aware of that information through likely having a person on each wordl). Is there a reason that general rule of thumb would be not beneficial in this place or in general? Also, if The Only Joe was an elim, he would not need to share such information publically, when he could just do so in private.

It's not a theory, I'm genuinely confused and overwhelmed by what's going on.

This isn't like other games where there's an eliminator side and a village side. In that scenario, the elims know everyone's roles, while the villagers start with nothing, so it's in the village's best interest for any information to be exposed. This game is different. First (and I'll admit this is unlikely, but possible nonetheless), a faction may not have a player on every world. Second, all evil roles may not be in a faction. And third, if there's someone who has a goal to kill me, I'd rather that they hold as little information as possible.  

I'm not accusing The Only Joe of being an elim, I just don't like his idea.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Well there's still two and a Half hours until I post the list, and i have yet to hear any arguments against. However, it's inspired a disappointingly small amount of Discussion.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 minute ago, The Only Joe said:

Well there's still two and a Half hours until I post the list, and i have yet to hear any arguments against. However, it's inspired a disappointingly small amount of Discussion.

There have been some, but most seem to address the lack of necessity of such a list being public rather than actually giving a reason not to publish it.

That's making me tend to think the people opposing it are probably doing so because they already have the information (meaning they're on Joe's planet or have factionmates there). Once the list is published, we can compare those who have argued against it to those in the location to infer who's in an open faction that has access to the information, since they seem like they'd be the least inclined to letting other people get the information and lessen their advantage. Actually, that's probably one of the best ways to catch Rayse's gang with the information we have right now.

[Young Bard he/him]

7 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

Well there's still two and a Half hours until I post the list, and i have yet to hear any arguments against. However, it's inspired a disappointingly small amount of Discussion.

Personally, I'm in favour of it being all or nothing. Having one world released and not the others is a lot more likely to disadvantage a specific group of players. As such, if someone from 3 worlds that aren't mine reveal their planet's lists, I will also reveal my planet's list in order to give everyone a complete picture. I advise that you do the same (i.e. we wait for 4 players from different planets to agree to the plan) before we all release the lists relatively simultaneously.

Possible reasons against:
This game looks like it was strongly inspired by LG21, at least to me. In that game, there was a role (Ruin, IIRC, though I could be wrong) that had the potential to destroy a World, roleblocking everyone on it for that cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar role here.

On a separate note, I disagree that there is a Village Faction, Joe. There are factions who's intent is styled in a more 'Villager' style, but it remains a faction game, and therefore it is not a villager faction, more an 'anti-other-faction' faction, which happens to be styled in a more Eliminator-y style.

[Mint11 she/her]

17 minutes ago, Bugsy6912 said:

There have been some, but most seem to address the lack of necessity of such a list being public rather than actually giving a reason not to publish it.

That's making me tend to think the people opposing it are probably doing so because they already have the information (meaning they're on Joe's planet or have factionmates there). Once the list is published, we can compare those who have argued against it to those in the location to infer who's in an open faction that has access to the information, since they seem like they'd be the least inclined to letting other people get the information and lessen their advantage. Actually, that's probably one of the best ways to catch Rayse's gang with the information we have right now.

1) I would say this is a reason not to publish it, and I'm fairly confident that it also applies to most other players:

25 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

 if there's someone who has a goal to kill me, I'd rather that they hold as little information as possible.  

2) I'd like to be completely transparent here. I am on the same world as Joe at the moment. However, even if the player list for every world is revealed, I would still be opposed to this (in fact, I'd be surprised if no one else followed Joe's lead in publicizing the lists, so I assume that will happen to some degree).

Edited September 16, 2016 by Frozen Mint
bad quoting, my bad

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

7 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

This game looks like it was strongly inspired by LG21, at least to me. In that game, there was a role (Ruin, IIRC, though I could be wrong) that had the potential to destroy a World, roleblocking everyone on it for that cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar role here.

On a separate note, I disagree that there is a Village Faction, Joe. There are factions who's intent is styled in a more 'Villager' style, but it remains a faction game, and therefore it is not a villager faction, more an 'anti-other-faction' faction, which happens to be styled in a more Eliminator-y style.

It was the Unmade I think. 

I'm getting worried that you're right, but if so, that's going to be a mite

3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

2) I'd like to be completely transparent here. I am on the same world as Joe at the moment. However, even if every the player list for every world is revealed, I would still be opposed to this (in fact, I'd be surprised if no one else followed Joe's lead in publicizing the lists, so I assume that will happen to some degree).

I'll just confirm that Fez is on my world. Is anyone else willing to publish their world?

[Arraenae]

46 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Edit: by the way, would you say that this person is an eliminator, or a villager? I'd like to see your unique take on this, arraenae:

Shasharra

Homeworld: Nalthis

Starting World: Nalthis

Alignment: Independent

Starting Investiture: {25}
 

Goal - Avid Researcher: Successfully use the Collaborate action with two different targets. Successfully use the Interview action with two different targets. Successfully Publish while on Nalthis.
 

Goal - Prove Your Theory: Successfully use the Special Craft Nightblood.
 

Goal - True Love: Talaxin must end the game Alive.

Shasharra would be classified as neutral, or independant in this game.

I can't put my win cons in here, because that would be akin to telling everybody my faction, which Nyali has asked us not to do. However, my goals make it very clear that there is a village equivalent.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm still trying to sift through the discussion I missed earlier, though I wanted to respond to this now.

18 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

I'll just confirm that Fez is on my world. Is anyone else willing to publish their world?

I am willing. I see no harm in it, for there's a decent chance Rayse already has this information. Even if he doesn't know where everyone began, there's no one who wouldn't know after the fact. However, I have one question. Is your intent to say which planet you're on and with whom, or only those who you started out with? For the moment, I think I'm in favor of the latter. Partly because of what Bard brought up regarding a planet destroyer, but mostly because I don't think the planet itself really matters; at least not now. In my case, it makes absolutely no sense for me to have ventured to the planet I am now. I suspect that where we ended up after Rayse tied his little knot was determined by pure chance, perhaps intentionally by him as a means to disorient us and simultaneously position his allies in each local so that he can gather more intelligence. It is because of that belief that I am interested in knowing how everyone was grouped initially.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Mint11 she/her]

37 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

I'll just confirm that Fez is on my world. Is anyone else willing to publish their world?

Oh God. I was not supposed to be known as fez on this forum. @Elbereth Look what you've done.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I was planning on the Initial planet and the people who started on it. Though, as I said, I'll be worldhopping to Roshar. as soon as I can.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

5 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Oh God. I was not supposed to be known as fez on this forum. @Elbereth Look what you've done.

Uh, oops? =P

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, The Only Joe said:

I'll just confirm that Fez is on my world. Is anyone else willing to publish their world?

I back Joe and Fez's claim that they're on the same world, because I happen to be on the same world as both of them.

[Young Bard he/him]

Joe, do you mind if I ask if you delay revealing your planet's lists? I think I have more worthwhile information that can be revealed instead, because interesting things are happening in my World PM.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Hmm. I'll bite. But I mean, Half of my world has already been revealed.

[Paranoid King he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Shasharra would be classified as neutral, or independant in this game.

I can't put my win cons in here, because that would be akin to telling everybody my faction, which Nyali has asked us not to do. However, my goals make it very clear that there is a village equivalent.

Okay, thanks. I'm still trying to put together a full picture. All independents are Neutral, right? So we just need to classify factions into good or bad. I've made a list of random factions, tell me whether they're villager or eliminator:

Kelsier's Gang

Goal: Kill The Lord Ruler and find the Atium (one player in this faction must hold the Atium item.)

Rayse's Rioteers:

Goal: Kill all of the shards other than Rayse (Cultivation, Honor, Dominion, and Harmony)

Idrian Nobility:

Goal: Accumulate at least {100} among all members. In addition, your faction has a personal lynch (decide among yourselves who is killed.) If Iadon is still alive by the time you have accumulated at least {100}, this win condition is failed.

The Returned:

Goal: Recover Nightblood. In addition, each member of this faction must be targeted by the lynch at the end of a cycle (Not killed the first time they are lynched, other kill abilities have no effect)

The Wayne Dudes:

Goal: One of you has infiltrated each faction, and is posing as one of their members. You have access to their doc. In order to meet this goal, all members of this faction must be alive, and each must hold at least 4 items.

I highly appreciate your insight, and hope to understand more about what qualifies a group as an eliminator faction.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Paranoid King
added a bit more color

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 hours ago, STINK said:

The fact that we're still discussing this is in my opinion, pretty stale tbh. I mean no-one was ever going to follow 'Victor's plan in the first place, especially me seeing as one of my win cons is to visit each world. So others could have that, and so we shouldn't just focus on one plan. 

Emphasis mine.

This phrasing bothers me immensely. I think the term best associated to it would be errorgance. In case you want to know why, the error comes from the fact that multiple people already said they were willing to go along with the plan, which contradicts your "no-one was ever going to follow" comment, while the arrogance comes from your certainty about people's inevitable reactions. I can tolerate the rest of the statement because half of it is opinion (based on the fact that the results wouldn't benefit you at all) while the other half is ultimately correct (that it shouldn't be the only thing we discuss). That being said, a part of me is interpreting it that this plan would somehow harm you, rather than have no affect on you at all. If your goals only really consist of being a tourist and sacrificing yourself, why do you even care? I suspect an ulterior motive is the answer.

6 hours ago, STINK said:

So you think that Mark isn't capable of manipulation or something? In his like, very first game he managed to get everyone but one (gee wonder who) to think that he was good and just a newbie who didn't know what he was doing.

I'm putting this in a different color because it's out of character, but this comment bothers me as well because you weren't the only one. Either my first or second analysis post that game was literally filled with red flags Mark was waving about. I just didn't pursue him because it was his first game and I wanted him to have a chance to play and learn, and since I died shortly afterwards, no one was around to point it out when it actually became important to kill him. My point in mentioning this is that you're talking yourself up a lot more than usual, at least, that I've noticed. This is just one of the many weird vibes I'm getting from you.

6 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Frankly, wouldn't that be a good idea if everyone revealed who was on their own planet? That way, we could potentially track movements, right?  I haven't thought this idea over too much, as I'm doing very suspicious mathematics right now, but I currently am a proponent of this plan. 

I personally think movements should be tracked, though perhaps not openly. Regardless of the current planet I inhabit not being my homeworld, I have decided to remain here indefinitely, in order to constantly take note of who comes and goes. If at least one person on every other world is willing to do the same, I suggest we all reveal our notes in 4 or 5 cycles to study them for anything suspicious or inconsistent. Additionally, I think it is important that we keep the world's as evenly populated as possible. If I'm not mistaken, kills can only be executed towards someone on the same world as you. If we keep each location even, it's inevitable that the killers reveal themselves, due to process of elimination. With our numbers, that means we should aim for three worlds with 7 and two with 6.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Amanuensis
Added text is in italics

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Aman, I disagree, I think it would be better to get the planets down to groups of three or four, with one planet with all the leftovers. That way, if there's a kill on a little planet, the pool of suspects is half as large.

@Paranoid King That depends. Are the factions open or closed? By that, I mean, do each faction have a doc and know eachother's Identities? If so, I would classify them all individually as Eliminator Factions. As in, if they were the only faction, or one of two, than they would be Eliminators But if all those factions were in the game, then none of them would be.

Normally, an Eliminator factions is defined by three things. They have a Doc, a Faction special ability, and a Goal that cannot be completed without the majority of players in the game losing.  

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, The Only Joe said:

Aman, I disagree, I think it would be better to get the planets down to groups of three or four, with one planet with all the leftovers. That way, if there's a kill on a little planet, the pool of suspects is half as large.

Still not sure who this Aman is, but it seems like you're responding to me. That is a thought worthy of consideration. I doubt many people would follow through with it though, as Rayse and his allies will be more likely to kill someone on the more populated planet in order to hide, which makes everyone who goes there a target.

[Paranoid King he/him]

28 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

That depends. Are the factions open or closed? By that, I mean, does each faction have a doc and know each other's Identities? If so, I would classify them all individually as Eliminator Factions. As in, if they were the only faction, or one of two, than they would be Eliminators But if all those factions were in the game, then none of them would be.

Normally, an Eliminator factions is defined by three things. They have a Doc, a Faction special ability, and a Goal that cannot be completed without the majority of players in the game losing.  

Let's say that they each have a doc and know each others' identities. (I was confused for a moment, because in this game, open factions have a PM, closed factions don't)

There might not be this many factions in the game, but given that there's more than one, I figured this was a faction game, rather than an eliminator game. Which means nobody's bad and needs to be ganged up on. (Note: I am not endorsing Rayse here. His goal probably involves killing a few people. But my first game was MR7 and I don't like faction games being confused with eliminator games.)

Edited September 16, 2016 by Paranoid King
Oops, totally misunderstood Joe

[Amanuensis he/him]

18 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

There might not be this many factions in the game, but given that there's more than one, I figured this was a faction game, rather than an eliminator game. Which means nobody's bad and needs to be ganged up on. (Note: I am not endorsing Rayse here. His goal probably involves killing a few people. But my first game was MR7 and I don't like faction games being confused with eliminator games.)

You're right about this being a faction game, in essence. If one faction fulfills their win condition, regardless of what it entails, then the game ends, effectively resulting in the defeat of every other faction as well as every Independent that wasn't fast enough to achieve their own personal goals. Here's the issue with Rayse, however. I am willing to bet his goal is to Shatter the remaining Shards... only problem is, he doesn't know who possesses them. So what is he going to do? Go after everyone who he thinks could be a Shard, or believes is allied with them. Whether or not Rayse is your direct enemy, there's a chance you could get caught in the cross fire. This is true for every one. Likely not you, PK, considering the things you've been saying, but I'm sure there's going to be plenty of unnecessary casualties. Especially when you consider that there are other players out there with the ability to kill and grudges of their own to follow through on. Although this may not strictly be an elimination game, there are certainly people with eliminator-esque goals, which means they are a threat to everyone else, whether or not they are in direct conflict.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Amanuensis
Added text is italicized

[Arraenae]

37 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Okay, thanks. I'm still trying to put together a full picture. All independents are Neutral, right? So we just need to classify factions into good or bad. I've made a list of random factions, tell me whether they're villager or eliminator:

Kelsier's Gang

Goal: Kill The Lord Ruler and find the Atium (one player in this faction must hold the Atium item.)

Rayse's Rioteers:

Goal: Kill all of the shards other than Rayse (Cultivation, Honor, Dominion, and Harmony)

Idrian Nobility:

Goal: Accumulate at least {100} among all members. In addition, your faction has a personal lynch (decide among yourselves who is killed.) If Iadon is still alive by the time you have accumulated at least {100}, this win condition is failed.

The Returned:

Goal: Recover Nightblood. In addition, each member of this faction must be killed by the lynch (Not killed by the first lynch, other kill abilities have no effect)

The Wayne Dudes:

Goal: One of you has infiltrated each faction, and is posing as one of their members. You have access to their doc. In order to meet this goal, all members of this faction must be alive, and each must hold at least 4 items.

I highly appreciate your insight, and hope to understand more about what qualifies a group as an eliminator faction.

---

Mobile is not cooperating, so I'm typing in here.

Pretty sure I already know the answer, but here it is: how do you know about all of these factions? Are you part of the Wayne dudes? You've forgotten at least one. 

The story in the sign up thread makes it very clear that Rayse is an eliminator equivalent. Rayse sets a trap that is intended to make people turn on each other in suspicion and kill each other for them while Rayse feigns innocence. That is a classic description of an eliminator that applies to all non-faction games here.

If there is an eliminator, or even an eliminator equivalent, there must be villagers. The story describes an eliminator setting a trap, not a faction game, not a free-for-all, or anything other than a classic game of mafia. True, there might be multiple eliminator factions, such as LG24, but that game still had a village. I am confident that we at least have a village-equivalent in this game. (Having your alignment listed in green is also a pretty big tell. I know that won't mean much to you, but it's good enough confirmation for me.)

 

[little wilson she/her]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

You're right about this being a faction game. If one faction fulfills their win condition, regardless of what it entails, then the game ends, effectively resulting in the defeat of every other faction as well as every Independent that wasn't fast enough to achieve their own personal goals. 

Holy discussion, Batman. O.o

About that quote (sorry about the placement of it. Mobile makes it difficult to move quotes and stuff around). A faction win would just cause a loss for those not in the faction who didn't complete all their won cons. You can only win the game if you complete all of your win cons. I'd bet that everyone has between 2-4 win cons (I think that number is actually 3 for everyone though), so any faction member who hasn't completed all of their win cons would also lose.

I would not call this game a faction game. Does it probably have multiple have factions? Yes. But I'm reasonably sure that it has at least one of what can be called an eliminator faction (Rayse+cohorts). There will be the people directly opposing Rayse that would be the village faction, even if they're not labeled villagers. And there are likely a fair number of independents. That's not a faction game. It's just a complex elimination game. Let's not start calling the game something that it's not. That led to problems in MR 7, MR 10, and sort of in MR 12 as well. Let's not add LG 26 to that list as well. This is an elimination game.

[Sart he/him]

I think this quote might be relevant to our current discussion.

Quote

Some players will belong to Factions, and some will be Independent. Every member of a Faction has, as one of their Goals, a common Faction Goal. Factions can be Open or Hidden. If the Faction is Open, everyone in the Faction knows who the other players in the Faction are. Open Factions also have a Doc or PM in which they can collaborate. An example of an "Open" faction is the Eliminator Team in other games. Members of Hidden Factions do not know who each other are and do not get a Doc in which they can collaborate, but they still share a common Faction Goal. An example of a Hidden faction is the Town in other games.

So, yes, players have factions. There is probably a faction of people with a group kill that shares a doc. That is what we normally call a Mafia faction. I'm assuming that most hidden factions want to see them dead. Thus, this game can be thought of a traditional mafia game. However, each faction wants to complete their goal before the other factions. That sounds more like a faction game to me. To make matters worse, all players have additional goals, which will complicate matters further. That means this is really a Free-For-All type game, with some limited co-operation. Furthermore, I believe there are several independents in this game. Otherwise, why would Nyali specify that three neutrals winning ends the game? That implies at least three neutrals. Right now, I think people should be focusing on their faction goal, while every faction is theoretically balanced. Your personal goals are important, but they can theoretically be done later. Honestly, I don't expect anyone to actually win this game. I could see a partial win, but that's about it.

[Amanuensis he/him]

30 minutes ago, little wilson said:

About that quote (sorry about the placement of it. Mobile makes it difficult to move quotes and stuff around). A faction win would just cause a loss for those not in the faction who didn't complete all their won cons. You can only win the game if you complete all of your win cons. I'd bet that everyone has between 2-4 win cons (I think that number is actually 3 for everyone though), so any faction member who hasn't completed all of their win cons would also lose.

I would not call this game a faction game. Does it probably have multiple have factions? Yes. But I'm reasonably sure that it has at least one of what can be called an eliminator faction (Rayse+cohorts). There will be the people directly opposing Rayse that would be the village faction, even if they're not labeled villagers. And there are likely a fair number of independents. That's not a faction game. It's just a complex elimination game. Let's not start calling the game something that it's not. That led to problems in MR 7, MR 10, and sort of in MR 12 as well. Let's not add LG 26 to that list as well. This is an elimination game.

I ended up editing "in essence" in there because I know for a fact that there is an eliminator and village faction. That being said, I had a theory about the existence of a 17th Shard faction, who's primary goal is finding (and likely killing) Hoid, based off a comment made by a player in my world PM earlier. Now I have more information, which points them to being someone like Sigzil, since they eventually described their win con as "murdering Hoid or getting him to take you as an apprentice," but initially I believed he was one of Galladon, Demoux or Baon, and I wouldn't be surprised if those three were out there trying to find him as well. Since the 17th Shard in the books appear to be trying to stop Hoid from interfering with Rayse, I doubt their win condition has anything to do with him, or the village, and if they are indeed a faction rather than each of them being  Independents, then their victory will certainly mean a village AND eliminator loss, hence why I could see this game being interpreted as a faction game. Besides, the rules seem to imply that there are different groups out there who's wins would result in village loss, eliminator or not... which Sart just quoted.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Ecthelion III he/him]

So sorry Daniyah XD

But not sorry Straw