Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance

[Amanuensis]

@The Young Bard, so what was Magestar?

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[A Joe in the Bush]

Do we want to post in the thread who moved to what planets or not?

[Wonko the Sane]

That write-up looks to me like there was an attempted Eliminator kill, which failed somehow. Does anyone want to come forward as the intended target?

 

In other news, Wonko continues to struggle with accidental quotes.

7 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

 

 

[A Joe in the Bush]

If you're on PC, you can just double click on the quote, and hit backspace, and the entire box will be deleted. If you're on Mobile you can just curse and swear and hope a helpful admin comes along to delete it for you.

[Amanuensis]

10 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

 

In other news, Wonko continues to struggle with accidental quotes.

My pro tip? Hold down the top, dark bar of the quote until something pops up saying cut, then click that.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Amanuensis

[dowanx]

22 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

Do we want to post in the thread who moved to what planets or not?

I think we should.

[Wonko the Sane]

 

4 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

If you're on PC, you can just double click on the quote, and hit backspace, and the entire box will be deleted. If you're on Mobile you can just curse and swear and hope a helpful admin comes along to delete it for you.

I won't need an admin -- I'll be able to get on a PC tomorrow. I just have more regular access to mobile.

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My pro tip? Hold down the top, dark bar until something pops up saying cut, then click that.

That doesn't appear to work for me. Thanks, though!

[Young Bard]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

@The Young Bard, so what was Magestar?

Mraize of the Ghostbloods. Personally, I'm pleased - he's not one of Odium's gang, but I doubt the Ghostbloods are going to be our allies, particularly seeing as Mage was carrying a vial of poison and a silver knife (though it's been speculated that the knife is meant to ward off shades rather than have an aggressive role, but still...)

Unfortunately, I don't have a colour for the Ghostbloods, so I'll refer to them from now on in a grey-silver, though this might not be their real colour.

That's all I have, unfortunately. I'm inclined to think that the Ghostbloods were an Open Faction, as I wasn't struck by a whole heap of suspicion by anyone defending Mage (although I did find a few people pushing for Stink's lynch strange, but I'll discuss that when I get home.)

For now, I'll toss a vote at Brandon Sanderson, because I'd like to hear his thoughts on the game so far. I've seen him post a few times, so he's active, but he's said nothing but Meta and OOG talk, which could be because he's a new eliminator and is trying to be cautious and avoid anyone getting a read on him.

Also, it would amuse me greatly to lynch Brandon Sanderson.

@Darkness Ascendant

[Dalinar Kholin]

1 hour ago, The Only Joe said:

Do we want to post in the thread who moved to what planets or not?

I think so. As I argued before, open knowledge seems more likely to help villagers then eliminators, (with the exception of things such as defensive abilities which could stop elim attacks). 

Additionally, although I'm not going to reveal specifics specifics, I have a reasonable village read on Amanuensis.

Final note, on the power dynamic, this game seems to be much less "kill" friendly then lg 25, the only other game I've played. Only one kill was attempted during the night, and it was successfully blocked. I'm still reading through all of the abilities for the different abilities, but it certainly seems like their are a variety of defensive mechanism to kills, in addition to a limited number of effective and especially secretive ways to kill during the night. This is compounded by the number of independents. The God's Own Hate can't kill indiscriminately b/c the'll start hitting a lot of independents, which means they have to gather information first. Hitting independents has a lot of downsides. 

1st: it's a complete waste of an action.

2nd: it likely cost investiture/preparation in order to have no net benefit.

3rd: It could cause reprisal. If unsuccessful, it could easilly be mistaken for an independent vs: independent goal. Ie: with vasher wanted to kill the maker of nightblood (I think thats right? I don't know her name). But, the point still stands, after you make an attack, it's a declaration of war per se on a smaller scale. It incites counter-reprisal or at the very least the possibility. 

Each member of the elim's also will have personal objectives to achieve. This means that they don't want the game to end until they achieve all of those objectives (right?), so an even stronger reasoning for them to be cautious. 

Essentially, my argument is that we have time, and also against the logic I saw in lynching Magestar. Killing independents as the Children doesn't help, it hurts. They act as a buffer between the elim's and the villagers. The villagers have more people with a lot of powerful actions, the longer the game goes on with us using our abilities effectively, whether to gain info or strength, the stronger the relative position of the villagers. 

42 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

Mraize of the Ghostbloods. Personally, I'm pleased - he's not one of Odium's gang, but I doubt the Ghostbloods are going to be our allies, particularly seeing as Mage was carrying a vial of poison and a silver knife (though it's been speculated that the knife is meant to ward off shades rather than have an aggressive role, but still...)

Unfortunately, I don't have a colour for the Ghostbloods, so I'll refer to them from now on in a grey-silver, though this might not be their real colour.

That's all I have, unfortunately. I'm inclined to think that the Ghostbloods were an Open Faction, as I wasn't struck by a whole heap of suspicion by anyone defending Mage (although I did find a few people pushing for Stink's lynch strange, but I'll discuss that when I get home.)

For now, I'll toss a vote at Brandon Sanderson, because I'd like to hear his thoughts on the game so far. I've seen him post a few times, so he's active, but he's said nothing but Meta and OOG talk, which could be because he's a new eliminator and is trying to be cautious and avoid anyone getting a read on him.

Also, it would amuse me greatly to lynch Brandon Sanderson.

@Darkness Ascendant

This means I disagree with that logic. We should agree to only lynch if we have specific knowledge or specific suspicious to do so. General argument is good, the more information to sort through the more analysis which can be eventually cross referenced against the elim's. However, throwing something out for the sake of getting someone to post seems like a distraction from figuring out a game plan as a whole. 

Hmmmmm. That was very mismashed logic, which is a testament to why I should have resisted the temptation to find out what happened and post, but I think the core of it is valid. At the very least, the argument of minizing the role of the lynch/even not using it at all until we have more info should generate discussion.

[STINK]

No one died, and btw what's the OoA?

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

No one died, and btw what's the OoA?

Quote

 

All actions within a category happen simultaneously.

1. [negate]

2. [manipulate]

3. [assist]

4. [attack]

5. [detect]

6. Any Applicable "end of turn" Passives (Investiture drain, research Mastery, etc)

7. [worldhop] (the only ability of this type is Worldhop)
    

Abilities marked with [*special] occur at a different time than they normally would. Such abilities always contain a "Timing" note.
 

Abilities with multiple types will have one marked with an *. The marked type is the type used to determine timing.

 

[Darkness Ascendant]

2 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

but Meta and OOG talk

What else do I have to talk about. Also, what the hell do those terms mean? Is there something I should be talking about? Do you guys want my allegiance?

[Amanuensis]

This is a mobile post from my phone in bed because I can't sleep. I'll fix the color and justification later.

I was just thinking. I would be pretty satisfied if an Awakener world hopped to every world and took note of each players investiture. I reckon all of the Shardholders would have a "dazzling" amount. If my starting amount is anything to go off of considering my character, then I'd guess there aren't many players with a lot. Probably some to help mask the shards and what not, but likely no more then ten. If we could narrow down Rayse even to that many players, I think we would be a lot better off... Then again, at the same time, if it's made public knowledge then he will be tipped off on who to kill too, so... Hmm. If you're an Awakener I would recommend you do this if you haven't planned to already, but that you keep that info close to your chest for a while. Examine each player carefully and if one ends up waving a bunch of red flags, reveal them, or at least confront them first to see how they react.

Edited September 20, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Young Bard]

 

3 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I think so. As I argued before, open knowledge seems more likely to help villagers then eliminators, (with the exception of things such as defensive abilities which could stop elim attacks). 

Additionally, although I'm not going to reveal specifics specifics, I have a reasonable village read on Amanuensis.

Final note, on the power dynamic, this game seems to be much less "kill" friendly then lg 25, the only other game I've played. Only one kill was attempted during the night, and it was successfully blocked. I'm still reading through all of the abilities for the different abilities, but it certainly seems like their are a variety of defensive mechanism to kills, in addition to a limited number of effective and especially secretive ways to kill during the night. This is compounded by the number of independents. The God's Own Hate can't kill indiscriminately b/c the'll start hitting a lot of independents, which means they have to gather information first. Hitting independents has a lot of downsides. 

1st: it's a complete waste of an action.

2nd: it likely cost investiture/preparation in order to have no net benefit.

3rd: It could cause reprisal. If unsuccessful, it could easily be mistaken for an independent vs: independent goal. Ie: with vasher wanted to kill the maker of nightblood (I think thats right? I don't know her name). But, the point still stands, after you make an attack, it's a declaration of war per se on a smaller scale. It incites counter-reprisal or at the very least the possibility. 

Each member of the elim's also will have personal objectives to achieve. This means that they don't want the game to end until they achieve all of those objectives (right?), so an even stronger reasoning for them to be cautious. 

1. Essentially, my argument is that we have time, and also against the logic I saw in lynching Magestar. Killing independents as the Children doesn't help, it hurts. They act as a buffer between the elim's and the villagers. The villagers have more people with a lot of powerful actions, the longer the game goes on with us using our abilities effectively, whether to gain info or strength, the stronger the relative position of the villagers. 

This means I disagree with that logic. We should agree to only lynch if we have specific knowledge or specific suspicious to do so. General argument is good, the more information to sort through the more analysis which can be eventually cross referenced against the elim's. However, throwing something out for the sake of getting someone to post seems like a distraction from figuring out a game plan as a whole. 

Hmmmmm. That was very mismashed logic, which is a testament to why I should have resisted the temptation to find out what happened and post, but I think the core of it is valid. At the very least, the argument of minizing the role of the lynch/even not using it at all until we have more info should generate discussion.

"with us using our abilities effectively"... surely the best of our abilities that we have is the lynch? I find this plan flawed, because you're assuming that God's Own Hate will show some amount of moderation or hesitation, which I don't share your faith in, and I count myself and the village lucky that it was blocked. If you want to halt the lynch until we have solid evidence, then we'll never reach a point where we have a lynch. At a certain point, you need to take a gamble and trust your instincts in these games. If we don't, we'll slowly get whittled down one by one. Take Silverblade's role, for instance. He has the potential to reveal the Eliminators, so I don't doubt they have him pegged on their kill list to die before he can reveal them, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was their target last night, although that might be a bit obvious. Nevertheless, if you have a protect ability, I thoroughly suggest you keep SB safe. The longer that this gets dragged out and we don't lynch, the more Silverblades, the more innocent villagers with useful roles now gone from us, are left behind, and your strategy of waiting and collecting information but not doing nothing with it gets flushed down the toilet with the now dead village roles.

The other thing - I do not (yet) want to lynch Darkness/Brandon. I want to vote on him, which is something else entirely. My argument is more of a poke vote than anything else, trying to get some more discussion going among the players that are either too shy to weigh in with their opinion, or too eager to hide in the background to avoid getting analyzed. In addition, I've spoken with Darkness before on non-SE related matters, so I think I could have a better chance of spotting him out more than any of the other inactives (I found him a bit more jovial and jokey than he was when I spoke with him before, for the record, but I'd say it's probably him trying to fit in with the community.) Finally, it was too ripe a temptation not to commit sacrilege and vote for 'Brandon Sanderson', though I like to pretend that that's just a happy side effect...

1 hour ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

What else do I have to talk about. Also, what the hell do those terms mean? Is there something I should be talking about? Do you guys want my allegiance?

Do you have any players you find suspicious? Anything players you particularly trust? Something else you feel might be relevant to who get's lynched today? People talking about these things makes us easier to draw connections between players, so it becomes a lot easier to find someone's docmates even after only one person's cover is blown - provided they've left behind a trail of trusts and suspicions.

Take the discussion of a Day 1 lynch, for example. Most of us here have played these games before, so each of us has probably made up our minds as to whether a Day 1 lynch is worthwhile or not, but this is all new to you, so it might provide a fresh light to hear your opinions, as well as joining the group discussion so we can lynch you so we can all be happy and be friends.

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

This is a mobile post from my phone in bed because I can't sleep. I'll fix the color and justification later.

I was just thinking. I would be pretty satisfied if an Awakener world hopped to every world and took note of each players investiture. I reckon all of the shareholders would have a "dazzling" amount. If my starting amount is anything to go off of considering my character, then I'd guess there aren't many players with a lot. Probably some to help mask the shards and what not, but likely no more then ten. If we could narrow down Rayse even to that many players, I think we would be a lot better off... Then again, at the same time, if it's made public knowledge then he will be tipped off on who to kill too, so... Hmm. If you're an Awakener I would recommend you do this if you haven't planned to already, but that you keep that info close to your chest for a while. Examine each player carefully and if one ends up waving a bunch of red flags, reveal them, or at least confront them first to see how they react.

I can see the merits in this plan, but just to clarify: You're assuming Awakeners can see the Investiture of all the planets they're on? I didn't know that. Also, you're assuming everyone (including Rayse) will just sit around waiting for the Awakeners to do their rounds, where they're probably also rotating around, making it much harder to track down everyone, especially if they try to be avoided.

[Amanuensis]

12 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

I can see the merits in this plan, but just to clarify: You're assuming Awakeners can see the Investiture of all the planets they're on? I didn't know that. Also, you're assuming everyone (including Rayse) will just sit around waiting for the Awakeners to do their rounds, where they're probably also rotating around, making it much harder to track down everyone, especially if they try to be avoided.

If they have ten Invesiture it's a passive. Look in the common powers. And while that's a valid point, so long as the Awakeners keep themselves a secret, and everyone keeps track of players movements, it won't be as simple as Rayse trying to dodge them. And I reckon there's multiples of Awakeners with 10+ investiture too, so we might be able to find a way to split it. Like A-M names check Nalthis, Scadrial and Taldain N-Z through Sel, Roshar and Taldain, in whatever random order they want.

Also, as a note. @Silverblade5 investigated me last night. What did you learn?

Edited September 20, 2016 by Amanuensis

[STINK]

Look at you lot all having stuff happen

[Dalinar Kholin]

1 hour ago, The Young Bard said:

 

"with us using our abilities effectively"... surely the best of our abilities that we have is the lynch? I find this plan flawed, because you're assuming that God's Own Hate will show some amount of moderation or hesitation, which I don't share your faith in, and I count myself and the village lucky that it was blocked. If you want to halt the lynch until we have solid evidence, then we'll never reach a point where we have a lynch. At a certain point, you need to take a gamble and trust your instincts in these games. If we don't, we'll slowly get whittled down one by one. Take Silverblade's role, for instance. He has the potential to reveal the Eliminators, so I don't doubt they have him pegged on their kill list to die before he can reveal them, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was their target last night, although that might be a bit obvious. Nevertheless, if you have a protect ability, I thoroughly suggest you keep SB safe. The longer that this gets dragged out and we don't lynch, the more Silverblades, the more innocent villagers with useful roles now gone from us, are left behind, and your strategy of waiting and collecting information but not doing nothing with it gets flushed down the toilet with the now dead village roles.

Hmmmm, that's mostly true. I'm just not familiar enough with how effective our actions are/how much we're informed about. How many kill actions are there? How many of these inform people in the world when you use them? How much investiture do most people have and how effectively can they get more?

My thought wasn't so much to stop using the lynch totally, as stop using it as a speculative/informational weapon. If we make it an isolated system based off of information from a singular or multiple people, then we can potentially isolate variables when we find out someone was a ind/elim/village, but that plan has flaws as well. Also, I do think that the self-interest rational for not attacking indiscriminately holds true, it's just not good business to kill indiscriminately, it turns a 1:2 disadvantage numerically to a 1:4 or 1:5 if they declare war on all independents. But I'll maybe make another argument (or give it up), once I read through all of the abilities.

[Paranoid King]

Joe, you tried to kill me. You'll notice I'm not dead. And you'll notice there's no eliminator kill. And you'll notice that I'm rather bothered about that.

I tried to be fair. I tried to be even. But this means war.

[Elithanathile]

Hey guys! It's cycle two! And you know what that means! Full personal disclosure! Yay!

Okay, so I'm Gaotona from Emperors Soul. My goals are to find Shai and give her an essence mark, my second goal, which I will keep secret for now, and my last goal is to create 2 essence marks and give them to other people.

So as you can see, I'm nice, nobody wants to kill me, and my goals help other people. On that note, if whoever is Wan ShaiLu could send me a PM, I would appreciate it.

[Frozen Mint]

4 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

"with us using our abilities effectively"... surely the best of our abilities that we have is the lynch? I find this plan flawed, because you're assuming that God's Own Hate will show some amount of moderation or hesitation, which I don't share your faith in, and I count myself and the village lucky that it was blocked. If you want to halt the lynch until we have solid evidence, then we'll never reach a point where we have a lynch. At a certain point, you need to take a gamble and trust your instincts in these games. If we don't, we'll slowly get whittled down one by one. Take Silverblade's role, for instance. He has the potential to reveal the Eliminators, so I don't doubt they have him pegged on their kill list to die before he can reveal them, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was their target last night, although that might be a bit obvious. Nevertheless, if you have a protect ability, I thoroughly suggest you keep SB safe. The longer that this gets dragged out and we don't lynch, the more Silverblades, the more innocent villagers with useful roles now gone from us, are left behind, and your strategy of waiting and collecting information but not doing nothing with it gets flushed down the toilet with the now dead village roles.

Solid evidence is an unreasonable standard, but having specific reasons (which is not something we had on Magestar- only conjecture being thrown around) to lynch someone is not. I agree with Dalinar. Especially after PK just revealed the name of who attempted to kill him, I doubt GOH isn't going to be more cautious about who they're going to hit. It's possible that one of them has the ability to misinform those detecting a kill (i.e. someone else attempted to kill PK, but they're pinning it on Joe). But holding an ability like that has the potential to overpower a role, so I find it unlikely.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Frozen Mint

[Paranoid King]

14 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

It's possible that one of them has the ability to misinform those detecting a kill (i.e. someone else attempted to kill PK, but they're pinning it on Joe).

Well given that in order to find that info I needed both:

1. An ability which protected me from that kill.
2. And an ability that tells me when people try to kill me.

I doubt that's likely.

 

[livinglegend]

1 hour ago, Paranoid King said:

Joe, you tried to kill me. You'll notice I'm not dead. And you'll notice there's no eliminator kill. And you'll notice that I'm rather bothered about that.

I tried to be fair. I tried to be even. But this means war.

I really want to know why you think it was Joe, but I suppose it's your prerogative to say if it would reveal your role. 

I'm concerned that if Joe is bad and he's advocating revealing who's in each world, that GoH may be gaining an advantage from the planet reveals. I can't think of what advantage that may be though.

Joe, what defense do you have?

Edit: beaten to the post by paranoid king

Edited September 19, 2016 by livinglegend

[Mark IV]

I doubt revealing who's on each planet would actually make things easier for any one faction. Instead, I feel 

1) If Joe is good, he's simply suggesting a way to get more information out

2) if Joe is bad, it might have been him suggesting ideas to appear good instead. 

3) or maybe the GoH faction might have a specific target to kill, but I doubt this would have been the sole reason as thyed have multiple people in the game, so most planets would be covered if they spread out evenly. 

I'm still not against the idea, but I don't think anyone's really going to come out with a full list of people on their planet. I know I could start, but it isn't really encouraging when almost no one else is advocating the idea.

[Dalinar Kholin]

41 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Well given that in order to find that info I needed both:

1. An ability which protected me from that kill.
2. And an ability that tells me when people try to kill me.

I doubt that's likely.

 

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. Additionally, why would PK say that if it wasn't true? If Joe turns out to be good, it would make PK incredibly suspicious. As an independent, making a fallacious claim would be incredibly dangerous and not gain anything. So he's probably children or GOH, and as GOH it would be contradicted by the real victim. And no one would make an attack on the first turn unless they're evil b/c no information. I'm not going to vote Joe yet b/c I want to see his response, but thats where my vote will go unless I become convinced of a different argument by the end of the day.

Side note: this is exactly what I was attempting to argue earlier, we create an "isolated"ish system here. Either PK is tricking us and evil, or telling the truth, and good (with a small chance of being evil and betraying evil to gain trust, but that seems unlikely), either way, its based on a claim which can be analyzed and allow us to make process.

[Clanky]

Urgent Public Safety Announcement from Roshar!

Reports are showing a serious illness is beginning to spread throughout the population. Symptoms include lethargy and the loss of ability to perform actions that once would've seemed easy. Initial research is showing that it is unlikely that this outbreak began naturally and that their may in fact be an individual or group purposefully spreading the infectious agent.

As of yet there is no known cure.

Anyone with information on the culprits responsible for this heinous act of bioterrorism should contact the local Cosmere Health Organization representative for the area Cy Lon. Also a reminder that the CHO recommends proper hand hygiene as the best way to prevent the spread of infectious diseases.