Long Game 22: Corenne al'Daishar

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I also want a new mayor. I'll be voting for Hael.

[Seonid he/him]

I've appreciated Lopen's contributions as Mayor, but I think that moving the role around is wise. Of all of the choices, I think I trust Elbereth most. She's consistently given off a village read to me - not that I know her Eliminator tells at all, and my gut this game has been shaky at best. But I think it's a worthwhile place to start.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Write-up finally posted! Definitely hope this one was worth the wait!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I have a couple of minor things that I want to say, and I will try and tie them into some actual suspicions and a vote a bit later in the cycle. The first one is something that has been bugging me a bit, and that is when people say that we need "focus on Fain" or "focus on the Darkfriends." As far as I can tell, both of those statements are equivalent to "play mafia as a villager," since we don't really have any way to distinguish the corrupted from the Darkfriends. And nobody that has made a post along those lines and then gone on to say what sorts of changes we should make to go about hunting one team over the other. So when I post my suspicions later, people with posts along the lines of what I mentioned will be higher up than others.

 

The other thing is much less important, and I just want to agree with Mailliw (and disagree with phatt) about vigilante roles. I have a different reason though. It is often implied that we should not kill this person or lynch this cycle or use vigilante kills or whatever because of roles. Roles are important, I acknowledge that. But we can't let roles be a reason not to kill people. We have Troll GMs, if you hadn't noticed. And vanilla roles can totally win a game by themselves, and probably have much more fun than a game where everyone gets scanned by a protected person.

 

Okay, so that's what I wanted to say, and I know that both of those points are more meta/gameplay related as opposed to being useful for finding Darkfriends. What I said is also just my opinion. But I feel like they have each come up enough that they were worth mentioning.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Yeah, I would like to suggest that the Wolf-Brothers focus their kills on actual suspects at this point though, if they kill at all(not killing is definitely an option you guys! ). If a player is inactive for too long, they could get switched with a pinch-hitter or you could kill them then, if they're genuinely inactive. But Twei wasn't really what I'd label as 'inactive.' She was just having trouble keeping up with the thread, and understandably so.

 

So, on to those actual suspects. My current pool of suspects for the last Darkfriends are Meta(lots of people suspect him), phattemer(I'm hoping he'll participate in the lynch finally. Well, I suspect he'll be involved with it in one way or another. ), Elodin(still suspicious of him. Plus, Meta has defended him quite a bit lately), Haelbarde(yeah, still wondering about you ), and Hellscythe(still lingering suspicion from last Cycle). Oh yeah, and Conquestor a bit as well. I would lynch any of those players except Haelbarde at this point.

 

To respond to Rubik about what I'd like to hear from you, I want to know who you're suspicious of and any thoughts you have on the game so far. Just basic stuff. You haven't talked much about who you think is suspicious. You've said how you go about analyzing players, but we haven't really heard the results of said analyzing. You helped lynch Gunshy, true, but you were pretty late with your vote and the lynch was basically settled when you voted, so I'm not inclined to trust you very much from that.

 

Edit: Voted on Meta.

 

Edit2: I kinda still want to be Mayor, but whatever.

Edited June 12, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Haelbarde he/him]

@Lopen: Been trying to get a final programming assignment done, which I submitted ~15 minutes ago. And now it's the weekend. So I should finally have the time to actually sort through my thoughts on everyone.

[STINK he/him]

I trust Meta more than most people right now. So yeah, don't vote for him. Make him mayor instead!

[jaimeleecee she/her]

Just to poke a huge hole in Seonid's theory, I was detained and I am not Fain.. I do think it is likely that Fain was role blocked however, or just wants us to think he/she was role blocked.. 

 

And thanks for the mayor vote Elb, I'm flattered however (and I swear this was my plan from the start not just because you voted for me) Elbereth

 

Edit: Just a disclaimer, I am going to be out of town this weekend, going to a beer fest where I am holding a (legit) who can drink the most competition (if anyone has seen the episode of It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia where they are drinking on the plane, its going to be like that  ) Therefore I will try and contribute as much as I can today before leave, and will be very sparse after that.  I will be reading the thread often on mobile but I won't necessarily be posting much.

Edited June 10, 2016 by jaimeleecee

[STINK he/him]

Uhm, wasn't Wilson only confirmed confirmed good like when she died?

[STINK he/him]

Yes, but I took it more as a 'why not check' seeing as everyone was seemingly fine (aka paranoia aka only I should be hating that and I'm not is it opposite day?) and also more of a 'trolly' thing. Not a 'I truly believe that Wilson is the fain' thing.

[STINK he/him]

Yeah, and I thought people were like 'ew Meta' 'cause Wilson got annoyed 'cause Meta was all like 'Yo Wils waddup u fain?' and Wilson was just like 'ew no hoo even wants 2 b a fain'.

 

No?

[jaimeleecee she/her]

Is it too far fetched of a theory to think that conquestors tunneling of Elodin as fain or corrupted is a possible attempt at diverting himself as Fain onto someone else? He was holding hard to his feelings of needing to vote for Elodin during D2 despite the decision that the Elodin lynch was too easy.. so part of me thinks he was just trying to find another reason to be suspicious of Elodin because he couldn't shake that feeling, or hes Fain and is trying to divert that by pointing the finger at someone else. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Is it too far fetched of a theory to think that conquestors tunneling of Elodin as fain or corrupted is a possible attempt at diverting himself as Fain onto someone else? He was holding hard to his feelings of needing to vote for Elodin during D2 despite the decision that the Elodin lynch was too easy.. so part of me thinks he was just trying to find another reason to be suspicious of Elodin because he couldn't shake that feeling, or hes Fain and is trying to divert that by pointing the finger at someone else. 

 

Is it to far-fetched a theory? No. But I know for a fact Conquestor is not Padan. I was hoping to clear more players last night, but it appears my gambit either worked too well or not at all. Personally if I were Padan I would have saved my Corruptions until I knew for certain that a particular player would bring role value to my team. Since a few critical players I'm aware of / know other people are aware of were not converted last night, that suggests that Fain and his first Corrupted are not in the know; that is if you are truly not Padan, jaimee, or if you were not the target of conversion.

 

On that subject, Elbereth. Why am I voting for you? I promise it's not because I'm tunneling, though I could very well be wrong right now, but hear me out real quick. Last night we were discussing Padan Fain and likely targets for conversion. When I brought up Joe and the reason why I thought he would very likely be the target of conversion, you kinda downplayed how great his role would be for an eliminator faction (can't quote you exactly but you said something along the lines of "Well I guess I could see his power being useful and he is kinda confirmed innocent thanks to Nyali"). I emphasized, then, how powerful redirects can be, and you said you sorta agreed based of what you saw in LG20 (you used I suppose and I guess at least five times total during this conversation and no other, which I suppose could be just a natural habit, but to me it feels more like you reacting to someone figuring out your plan before you could execute it). So then the next thing you ask is if I plan on saying in thread that Joe is a very likely target for conversion to steer Padan towards someone else or just let it happen then lynch him, to which I told you that there is a second Whitecloak targeting him to make sure he remains village. You seemed somewhat distraught by me revealing that, given you sarcastically used a synonym to the word "Terrific" and made slanty eyes, which I don't really get from a villager perspective because why would we not want a role that is basically confirmed good after Gunshy's death to be on our side? Additionally you also said it was a good plan, when honestly it's not because A: Detaining a player prevents them from using their role, and B: It only delays Fain's conversions, not makes him lose a charge, so while it does buy us some time it's not as useful as say, using Joe's power to confirm another player as innocent, just as Nyali did with Bard.

 

Anyway, the thing is this was all a lie the throw you off just in case I was right about you. The actual target was Jaimee, whom I had told Lopen long before turnover. I find it either ironic or preordained that you voted her for Mayor before she revealed that she was detained. There's a lot of ways to look at this, but the way I see it is, for the most part, people have repeatedly stated they trust you and that they value your input on this game, and you saying you trust her for mostly gut might start swaying people to feel the same. But why do you trust her exactly? Is it because you're Padan Fain and you converted her N1? Is it because she's Padan Fain and she converted you N1? Is it because you're Padan and planned on converting her, maybe even attempted to last night, but didn't now why your action failed and assumed that since she already posted without mentioning detainment that she was a Channeler who used Mask of Mirrors on herself to make her untargetable, therefore proving her a role that you would want on your team? Or are you Padan just trying to lay false leads later on for us to follow, in case you're ever caught? These are all possibilities, and as I said before I could be completely wrong, but another thing that interests me is how earlier on (before her reveal) you tried to push the conversation away from the Detainment target being Padan by saying there are way too many possibilities. Does that seem fishy to anyone else, or am I just crazy? And I still stand by my point in the beginning of the game that Elbereth was mentioning PM safety, role claiming, and secret roles wayyy too much, which was one of the reason's you caught my interest as a potential Padan Fain from the start.

 

The only point in your favor is that apparently Wilson was certain you weren't Padan, according to Lopen. I immediately assumed you two were a Warder/Channeler pair, which he denied, but now that we know Wilson was a Warder that's the only explanation I have. If that's the case you're doomed to die anyway, Padan won't convert you and the Darkfriends are already very far behind, so killing a player guaranteed to die won't help them, so if that's what you are then please tell us now. Otherwise, you really are my best guess at Padan right now, since you're one of ten players left I have not confirmed and are the most connected among them.

Edited June 10, 2016 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

Oh man dontcha just love it when Ada does something that involves like a million people and loads of PMs and lies. 

 

Well on the bright side I did tell people in PMs that Elb was evil

 

On the other hand, I haven't made it official yet, but now I will so Meta.

 

Oh and Elbereth. I'm so colorful today!

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Straw, who did you scan and what were the results?

I can confirm now that Elodin was untargetable as the Wolfbrother attacked him last night.

[Seonid he/him]

I am going to be busy with family for much of the weekend, and will return to normal activity on Tuesday. I will attempt to at least keep up with the thread, and to perhaps post my thoughts, if I find the time, but I will likely be quite busy for much of the time. My apologies in advance.

[Elbereth she/her]

Ah, isn't it just splendid to wake up in the morning and see three votes on me...

Is it to far-fetched a theory? No. But I know for a fact Conquestor is not Padan. I was hoping to clear more players last night, but it appears my gambit either worked too well or not at all. Personally if I were Padan I would have saved my Corruptions until I knew for certain that a particular player would bring role value to my team. Since a few critical players I'm aware of / know other people are aware of were not converted last night, that suggests that Fain and his first Corrupted are not in the know; that is if you are truly not Padan, jaimee, or if you were not the target of conversion.

I actually disagree. It depends on who Padan is, but there are very few good reasons to wait on converting. Fain needs to use up all of his conversions before he dies, which matters more than getting someone with a specific role. Sure, a Wolfbrother or a Viewer or a Ta'veren would be great, but that's of secondary importance to getting as many people as possible. And with the number of possibilities of being blocked, he's not guaranteed to get a conversion even if he does Corrupt every cycle. So unless Fain is someone who has magically escaped all suspicion up to this point (and I'm pretty sure there's almost no one in that category) and thus didn't feel at all in danger of dying, he definitely should have corrupted last night regardless of whether he knew roles or not. (Whether he did isn't the same question, since just because I think it's good strategy for him to have converted doesn't mean Fain did. But I do think it's likely.)

On that subject, Elbereth. Why am I voting for you? I promise it's not because I'm tunneling, though I could very well be wrong right now, but hear me out real quick. Last night we were discussing Padan Fain and likely targets for conversion. When I brought up Joe and the reason why I thought he would very likely be the target of conversion, you kinda downplayed how great his role would be for an eliminator faction (can't quote you exactly but you said something along the lines of "Well I guess I could see his power being useful and he is kinda confirmed innocent thanks to Nyali"). I emphasized, then, how powerful redirects can be, and you said you sorta agreed based of what you saw in LG20 (you used I suppose and I guess at least five times total during this conversation and no other, which I suppose could be just a natural habit, but to me it feels more like you reacting to someone figuring out your plan before you could execute it).

I disagree with multiple things here, but they're all about what I would and wouldn't do if I were Fain, so I'm aware you have no reason to believe me. But if I were planning on converting Joe, I would already have a formed opinion about it. So I wouldn't be going "I guess" and "I suppose", like I was, since I added those qualifiers because it was a new idea. And I don't think I'd convert Joe. I might, given that he is a somewhat strategic choice, but there are other choices that I'd be more interested in because I've already converted him once, after all. More interesting to work with someone new. (Again, you don't have any reason to believe that, but it's true.)

So then the next thing you ask is if I plan on saying in thread that Joe is a very likely target for conversion to steer Padan towards someone else or just let it happen then lynch him, to which I told you that there is a second Whitecloak targeting him to make sure he remains village. You seemed somewhat distraught by me revealing that, given you sarcastically used a synonym to the word "Terrific" and made slanty eyes, which I don't really get from a villager perspective because why would we not want a role that is basically confirmed good after Gunshy's death to be on our side?

Because if there wasn't another Whitecloak, we'd have Gunshy guaranteed to have detained Elodin, which is a useful piece of information (although it doesn't clear him until we can prove that he's a Dreamwalker, which we have not yet). A second Whitecloak means that's not guaranteed. You did assure me that that that Whitecloak didn't detain Elodin, but even that doesn't mean that there isn't a third Whitecloak out there who did.

Was it unlikely that the Darkfriends would have the only Whitecloak? Probably, yeah. But I was hoping for it anyway, until you mentioned a second Whitecloak. That's why I was annoyed.

Additionally you also said it was a good plan, when honestly it's not because A: Detaining a player prevents them from using their role, and B: It only delays Fain's conversions, not makes him lose a charge, so while it does buy us some time it's not as useful as say, using Joe's power to confirm another player as innocent, just as Nyali did with Bard.

Um, how did she confirm Bard as innocent? Maybe I'm misremembering, but I'm pretty sure that's not what happened...

The reasons I thought it was a good plan were 1) I wasn't aware that it wouldn't make Fain lose a charge (I thought about it but forgot to ask Gamma, so I was assuming it would), 2) I wasn't thinking of it in the context of Joe being Ta'veren but only a conversion target being detained, and 3) anything that causes no conversion is a good plan. And you could learn a lot from that, too. Whoever you mentioned it to would be slightly more cleared, and you could narrow down the suspects for Fain to an extent by who would and wouldn't convert him. And I don't really understand why detaining Jaime is any better of a plan.

Anyway, the thing is this was all a lie the throw you off just in case I was right about you. The actual target was Jaimee, whom I had told Lopen long before turnover. I find it either ironic or preordained that you voted her for Mayor before she revealed that she was detained. There's a lot of ways to look at this, but the way I see it is, for the most part, people have repeatedly stated they trust you and that they value your input on this game, and you saying you trust her for mostly gut might start swaying people to feel the same. But why do you trust her exactly? Is it because you're Padan Fain and you converted her N1?

(I wouldn't - no offense, Jaime)

Is it because she's Padan Fain and she converted you N1? Is it because you're Padan and planned on converting her, maybe even attempted to last night, but didn't know why your action failed and assumed that since she already posted without mentioning detainment that she was a Channeler who used Mask of Mirrors on herself to make her untargetable, therefore proving her a role that you would want on your team?

What kind of assumption is that? If I had tried to convert her and failed, she could have been targeted by Mask of Mirrors, or detained, or be a Dreamwalker. Or someone had roleblocked me. I'm not sure whether there'd be a distinction there.

Point being, there's lots of options (all of which I was discussing in detail with a few people last night, for a related situation). And Mask of Mirrors is probably the least likely of them, and wouldn't even guarantee that she was in fact a Channeler (although it would be somewhat likely given that I don't think anyone else would use Mask of Mirrors on her). Why would she use Mask of Mirrors on herself, anyway? I don't see much value in that.

So no. I would not assume that. That would be dumb. (Nor would I convert her, in all probability - there are several people in this game that I want to be evil with, and I'm not giving away that chance.)

Or are you Padan just trying to lay false leads later on for us to follow, in case you're ever caught? These are all possibilities, and as I said before I could be completely wrong, but another thing that interests me is how earlier on (before her reveal) you tried to push the conversation away from the Detainment target being Padan by saying there are way too many possibilities. Does that seem fishy to anyone else, or am I just crazy?

There are certainly plenty of possibilities, as I mention just above. The Detainment target could be Fain, yes. Or Fain tried to target whoever was detained (whether Jaime or a third Whitecloak's target, which I give even odds for existing). Or targeted someone with Mask of Mirrors used on them. Or was roleblocked. Or targeted a Dreamwalker. That's one in five possibilities (discounting other things like knowing a Thief-taker was going to be targeting them and having no choice but to take no action, which is possible but rather unlikely). Is it something we should ignore? No. Is it the sort of situation where the Whitecloak should come forward and reveal and then we kill the detainee? Certainly not. That was my point.

And I still stand by my point in the beginning of the game that Elbereth was mentioning PM safety, role claiming, and secret roles wayyy too much, which was one of the reason's you caught my interest as a potential Padan Fain from the start.

I don't really understand how being Fain correlates to talking about PM safety/roleclaiming/secret roles. If anything, I'd try to downplay that as Fain since I'd want claims and such. I talked about those things because I thought they needed to be discussed and reiterated (and because they were a worthwhile way to contribute to the thread when I was also traveling).

The only point in your favor is that apparently Wilson was certain you weren't Padan, according to Lopen. I immediately assumed you two were a Warder/Channeler pair, which he denied, but now that we know Wilson was a Warder that's the only explanation I have. If that's the case you're doomed to die anyway, Padan won't convert you and the Darkfriends are already very far behind, so killing a player guaranteed to die won't help them, so if that's what you are then please tell us now. Otherwise, you really are my best guess at Padan right now, since you're one of ten players left I have not confirmed and are the most connected among them.

"The most connected among them"? Can you clarify what that means?

Wilson had reason to believe I wasn't Padan. That reason did not involve me being her Channeler. In fact, that reason makes less sense than the actual one - why would me being her Channeler automatically clear me to her?

Also, had a thought last night regarding that same Channeler. They're now confirmed not Darkfriend, because the Darkfriends wouldn't have killed someone who would then kill their Channeler two cycles down the road. That wouldn't make any sense. So while the Channeler isn't confirmed not Corrupted, they are confirmed not Darkfriend.

Corollary to this: Wilson was of the opinion that there was a Darkfriend Channeler, almost definitely, and I'd agree. It's a role that would be very useful indeed to the Darkfriends, but not OP for them because they can only use each power once. So that'll be either Orlok's Channeler (which we will find out by the end of today) or the last remaining Warder/Channeler pair. I don't know who either of those people are - but if you're the Warder, you should definitely not be trusting your Channeler right now. It's not necessarily true that they're a Darkfriend... but it does seem somewhat likely. I'm not advocating that they be lynched/killed right now, but I do think it pays to be careful.

I wonder if someone can get voted Mayor and lynched in the same turn...

Also, there was no Dragon's Fang again. Not sure what to think of that, but it bears pointing out.

More thoughts on topics other than myself to come later.

Oh, one more thing -

On that subject, Elbereth. Why am I voting for you? I promise it's not because I'm tunneling, though I could very well be wrong right now, but hear me out real quick.

Wanted to point this out. This is a good example of explaining a vote on someone. This is not tunneling. It's laying out his suspicions in good order so that they can be responded to and everyone else can deem them right or not. This is what there should be more of. Not necessarily this long or thorough, but something to explain your vote clearly. That's why I don't suspect Aman right now. He has actual (although wrong) reasoning for his vote, which is one of the hardest things for eliminators to do. He may in fact be the person I'm least suspicious of right now, replacing Jaime because while I do trust her, that was based on gut whereas this is on reasoning. So... Aman.

EDIT: I'm not going to bother to fix the colors. Just pretend all of the quotes are purple.

EDIT 2: Retracted Mayoral vote.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

El, how did you know there's another Warder/Channeler pair?

[Elbereth she/her]

I don't know for certain. I heard that there was through Wilson, but I don't know that she or whoever claimed to her wasn't lying. However, if Orlok's Channeler turns out not to be a Darkfriend, it seems somewhat likely because I don't think the village would have two Channeler/Warder pairs (both of which are entirely village) while the Darkfriends have none. (And if there is another pair, one of them is almost guaranteed to be a Darkfriend for that reason - three village-only pairs? That's a bit much.)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Why can't Wilson's Channeler be the evil one?

[Elbereth she/her]

Because the Darkfriends wouldn't have killed her if that meant their Channeler would die two cycles down the line. They've had enough losses already. They're not going to self-inflict more.

EDIT: Unless they were redirected by a Ta'veren, I suppose. That's the only other possibility.

Edited June 10, 2016 by Elbereth (Lomion)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Because the Darkfriends wouldn't have killed her if that meant their Channeler would die two cycles down the line. They've had enough losses already. They're not going to self-inflict more.

That's not a guarantee. Wilson was destroying their team. They might've sacrificed their Channeler in two cycles from now(when most their weaves will be burnt anyways) so that they could eliminate a threat. Not saying it has to be, it's just not all that ruled out.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I redirected Meta to Stink last night, and there was no conversion, but I was told my redirect was successful, so Meta can't be Padan Fain unless I'm missing something.

For the warder/channler discussion, I agree with Mailliw, losing a teamamte is worth the death of Wilson, if the eliminators have more newer players than usual. Which matches up with what we've seen so far.

[Elbereth she/her]

Meh. I can see where you're coming from. I still think it's unlikely, since they've lost enough already without sacrificing more just to kill Wilson. Particularly if there are only four of them, which I think is possible given that there's also the Corrupted to contend with. I don't think there'll be more than five, at least, and they still need to outnumber everyone else to win. Killing themselves - even for an advantage like killing a high threat level player - is not going to help them towards that goal, in my opinion. Just because the Channeler's burned out doesn't mean they can't add to the numbers. (I may be biased in that I've been reading a lot of old games with smaller teams recently, so I'm more inclined to assume four than I should be. But I doubt there'll be more than five, unless anyone has a good argument otherwise.) But sure, I suppose I could see a newer team doing it. Just because I wouldn't trade an eliminator life for hers doesn't mean that some people wouldn't make that choice.

Although... Joe, how has what we've seen of the Darkfriends so far match up with them having newer players? We've killed two, one experienced and one completely new. They've killed one person. Wilson. That's all of the evidence we have, and that doesn't point towards more new players particularly to me. Not sure where you're getting that.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I redirected Meta to Stink last night, and there was no conversion, but I was told my redirect was successful, so Meta can't be Padan Fain unless I'm missing something.

For the warder/channler discussion, I agree with Mailliw, losing a teamamte is worth the death of Wilson, if the eliminators have more newer players than usual. Which matches up with what we've seen so far.

You decided not to go with the other plan then?