Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[TheMightyLopen]

An alternative to lynching either Stink or Kynedath would be to ask for a Patji to attack one of them. That might be considered wasteful though, I don't know.

 

I'm not really convinced that Arraenae is a Trader, but I don't really have a better lead at this point, so I'm gonna leave my vote there. I know I said I was gonna try to do some analysis on each player, but I'm too tired to do it right now. Sorry. I'll be sure to get some semblance of analysis up soon though(at least for some players), but I'm off to bed now, and most likely won't be on again for this Cycle.

 

Vote tally:

 

Arraenae(3): Hellscythe, Lopen, PK

Stink(2): Water, Ripple

Kynedath(2): Adavantos, Clanky

Water(2): Stink, Mailliw

 

Personally, I would be fine with either Arraenae(sorry Reckoner friend!) or Water(sorry new player!) getting lynched, as I have some small suspicion of both. I don't really think we should lynch Stink or Kynedath, as I'm not really suspicious of them much. Just my opinion though, and I know there's not really any solid proof they're not eliminators.

[Amanuensis]

I'm voting for Arraenae for 

"A Sori with a messenger Aviar? I don't think that would be included, because it causes too many chances to set up a mayor" 

and

"What if Stink, Kyn, and PK are all eliminators?"

 

A Sori with a messenger Aviar doesn't mean much. Unlike traditional Seekers, a Sori only knows the alignment of one other player, so just because Kyn claims to be a Sori and has a messenger Aviar doesn't mean he can be put into a mayor type of role. I can tell you that if Kyn made a PM with PK, he started with the messenger Aviar, rather than being given it or stealing it, because you can't use an Aviar that you don't have yet(Aviar transferring is last in the Order of Actions).

 

If they are all eliminators, that was a very bold, but extremely risky move. Honestly, I agree with Hellscythe that this post is suspicious(at least that's what I understood from his vote on you and quoting those sentences). You seem to be trying to cast doubt on what has already been discussed, and the majority agrees that it's most likely at least PK is a trapper, so maybe you didn't like that people were trusting a couple trappers so early? Arraenae

 

Not sure what you mean about the situation. I've never really been in that situation before, and I don't know how that would be handled. But regardless, it can't be handled like they're Seekers because they're not Seekers. They don't scan anyone. They don't pick whose alignment they want to know either, something I think Clanky said something about? I may have just misread his post, I'm not sure.

 

Edit: Yeah, I was mis-remembering his post. He said "the odds of both Sori's mentor being chosen randomly are pretty steep" but we don't know it was randomly chosen. The GM's haven't told us how they distributed the roles.

 

...not likely, arraenae. There would be so many ways that would go wrong.

 

I know I said that I was suspicious of Arraenae before, but whenever there is a sudden shift in votes based on conjecture rather than facts, I can't help but question the intent. I hate that PK is involved in this, too, because despite the fact that he's a "confirmed Trapper," he's who of the three I would believe is evil the most (yes, that's mostly because he was my #1 suspicion before this Sori business occurred, and that I'm still convinced someone is not being entirely honest). I do find it interesting that Rae more-or-less repeated a few points I made earlier on this cycle (will quote both passages back to back for comparison) and that Lopen responded to both, yet he did not vote for me, let alone try to cast suspicion on me for my opinions, but the moment Rae says essentially the same thing he pounces on her (will also include Lopen's two responses).

 

The reason I think a single player having two Sori is unlikely is because of how it impacts the lynch. It's one thing to have a single player automatically know not to vote for you. But two? That seems like a bit of a stretch. Assuming both Stink and Kynedath really are Sori, that means they would likely do whatever it takes to make sure he doesn't get lynched. That's a lot more powerful than the Trusted side role in LG16, for example, because not only does it remove two potential votes stacking against PK but just about guarantees two votes being used to keep him from dying.

 

As for the bit about the trusted hub, that was more directed on the fact that a player with a Messenger Aviar also was a Sori. While I agree that isn't super dangerous because of the fact that PK can't confirm Kyn is telling the truth without him dying, it does mean that Kyn is free to dump everything he knows onto PK, and that the two would be able to collaborate together without revealing themselves to the Traders. Of course that is impossible now because of Stink's public reveal resulting in PK outing him, but still.

 

Also, my philosophy on coincidences is not that there's always a conspiracy involved, but that there's usually more to the story than what we see at face value. However I do see where you are coming from and am willing to revise my thoughts. It's possible I'm tunneling on Kyn like I did Orlok in QF12 and my mind is just trying to make up reasons for him to be evil instead of finding actual evidence. Though I will leave my vote on him as I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on the subject, in addition to my previous post involving my theory on why there was no eliminator kill.

 

As far as the whole Stink -- Kyn -- PK situation goes, I think Kyn is most likely to be suspicious. A Sori with a messenger Aviar? I don't think that would be included, because it causes too many chances to set up a mayor. However, since Aviar can be transferred, Kyn might not have started off with a messenger Aviar, and he stole one last cycle.

 

What if Stink, Kyn, and PK are all eliminators? They might be banking on the fact that Stink normally does stuff like this to make it plausible, and us thinking that no eliminator in their right mind would try doing a three-member fake Sori claim.

 

The situation is similar to two Seekers claiming that the same person is innocent, so maybe the situation should be handled the way that would normally be handled.

 

and

 

Hadn't really thought of it that way. Still, it doesn't seem to be something insurmountable. 2 players defending 1 other player from the lynch isn't going to be game-breaking. As it is now, we can just ignore 1 player out of 17 living players for the lynch(Stink and Kynedath are still eligible, but I haven't seen anything from them that I think is lynch worthy yet).

 

It's basically the same as a Seeker group, and there's been a few of those that haven't hurt the eliminators too bad(the AG for example, though I'm not sure if that's the best example since the village was weirdly inactive. I haven't played that many other games with trustworthy Seekers.    ).

 

I don't know that I'd call it tunneling if you're just following up on a suspicion. Though I do understand the feeling about making up reasons for someone to be guilty. I do it all the time. I could probably make a conspiracy theory about every living player.I honestly wish players would tunnel more.    It makes for more discussion when players are accusing other players aggressively(you don't have to be rude when you're trying to kill someone, but that doesn't mean you should go soft on 'em either!).

 

I still have a gut suspicion against Maill, and I have a suspicion about Ripple that I need to look into(but try not to tunnel on, because players love to tell other players that they're tunneling!   ), and some suspicion on Water as well(but I don't remember why. Some other people pointed it out, and I kinda agreed that something he did was suspicious). I would vote on Ripple right now, but I feel like I should wait until I've actually gone back over things first, and decide if she's really the player I'm most suspicious of, and then if she is, actually try to give as much reasoning as possible.

 

A Sori with a messenger Aviar doesn't mean much. Unlike traditional Seekers, a Sori only knows the alignment of one other player, so just because Kyn claims to be a Sori and has a messenger Aviar doesn't mean he can be put into a mayor type of role. I can tell you that if Kyn made a PM with PK, he started with the messenger Aviar, rather than being given it or stealing it, because you can't use an Aviar that you don't have yet(Aviar transferring is last in the Order of Actions).

 

If they are all eliminators, that was a very bold, but extremely risky move. Honestly, I agree with Hellscythe that this post is suspicious(at least that's what I understood from his vote on you and quoting those sentences). You seem to be trying to cast doubt on what has already been discussed, and the majority agrees that it's most likely at least PK is a trapper, so maybe you didn't like that people were trusting a couple trappers so early? Arraenae

 

Not sure what you mean about the situation. I've never really been in that situation before, and I don't know how that would be handled. But regardless, it can't be handled like they're Seekers because they're not Seekers. They don't scan anyone. They don't pick whose alignment they want to know either, something I think Clanky said something about? I may have just misread his post, I'm not sure.

 

Edit: Yeah, I was mis-remembering his post. He said "the odds of both Sori's mentor being chosen randomly are pretty steep" but we don't know it was randomly chosen. The GM's haven't told us how they distributed the roles.

 

Honestly I don't know. I'm less convinced of Rae's guilt due to her having a similar train of thought as my own and the way she took away her vote from me. My initial reason for thinking she was suspicious was because she has tried to get me killed C1 before and that she was grasping at straws trying to pin me down as evil (which to me, at first, suggested desperate tunneling but may just be villager paranoia at work). I do not really understand the votes on her, so I would appreciate it if Hellscythe and PK elaborated on their reasoning, in addition to Lopen spelling out for me exactly why he thinks what Rae said was suspicious when what I said was not. Maybe it's just because all her thoughts crossed my mind naturally too, but to me they seem almost identical, just spoken differently.

 

Only thing I didn't say that she did was the Stink + Kyn + PK all being evil, a thought I also entertained for awhile, I doubt that's what happened. Still think that out of all the discussion that's gone on today and what little information that's been revealed, Kyn is most likely the eliminator among the lynch candidates. But for whatever reason no one else seems to agree with me but Clanky.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Adavantos

[luckat]

There's been a lot of discussion about the eliminator kill and the Sori reveals, but not much about the vote manipulation that happened. Does anyone have any thoughts about that? Was it done by an eliminator to guarantee a kill or protect themselves, or could it have been a Trapper? If it was an eliminator, do we think they chose to manipulate one of their own votes, or is Elbereth more likely to be good? Also, and probably more relevant to the discussion at hand, why was a vote moved from Kynedath, rather than any of the players who had two votes on them well before the cycle ended. (Ada didn't place his vote on Kynedath until half an hour before the cycle ended, when many players wouldn't be on.) I doubt it was to protect Kynedath. 

 

It's nice to know Ada was Hidden. That doesn't guarantee the Traders attacked him, but it seems likely. Of course, it's still possible it was a WGG. Ada's claim that he purposefully voted to give evidence that he was Hidden seems odd to me because then that just tells the Traders he is an open target during the next cycle, even if he wasn't attacked. I can't shake the feeling that it would be a good way to pull off a WGG with Hidden instead of something that shows up in the writeup ("look, I was Hidden and there was no attack--they must have attacked me"). However, I think the explanation that the Traders tried to attack Ada is simple enough to accept. Protecting him would be a good idea. I am a bit worried, though, that making it obvious where Death Sight is would make it easy for a Trader with an Observant Aviar to find who has a Death Sight Aviar and possibly get rid of it. (If it's a WGG, that could even be the point of asking for that protection. I'm probably too paranoid though.) Mind Force might be safer to use, even if it means Ada's Aviar wouldn't be useful, although it could also be good for a Trapper's Observant Aviar to watch him for if he is attacked (in which case Mind Force wouldn't be good). (Not that anything I say about how Aviar should be used is useful at this point since a lot of people won't be on to see it before the turn ends. I always take way too long to write anything.)

 

The whole Sori thing is interesting. I agree with the people who think it is more likely Kynedath, Stink, and PK are all good. Two Sori having the same mentor isn't that outlandish, especially since it seems like the kind of thing a trolling GM would do. Wrt the Sori, there are four possibilities:

 

1. Kynedath and Stink are both evil. Then either they connected most of their team in a hurry to protect PK from Ada (which is super risky), or Stink claimed Sori with a mentor someone on his team was already claiming Sori to (which seems like bad planning).

 

2. Stink is good and Kynedath is evil. Then Kynedath used his Messenger Aviar to fake claim Sori. That's a reasonable thing for an eliminator to do, if a bit risky since there isn't a way to prove it. It's also a big coincidence that the Traders would claim Sori to someone who actually did have a Sori.

 

3. Kynedath is good and Stink is evil. Then Stink claimed Sori hoping to not actually get lynched, and he just happened to claim as a mentor someone who already had a Sori. The likelihood of this happening depends on the number of Sori with Messenger Aviar, but I'd say it's quite a coincidence if it's true. That would also be a really weird plan on Stink's part if it was true.

 

4. Stink and Kynedath are both good. Then the GMs decided to make two different Sori have the same mentor. That is entirely possible for them to do. It means that there is only one guaranteed Trapper for two Sori, instead of them clearing two people if they both die. It also might be expected to cast doubt on one of the Sori claims. There are a lot of other ways the roles could have been distributed, but this one is reasonable and doesn't require a coincidence so much as the GMs making a particular choice.

 

Again, of these I think both Kynedath and Stink telling the truth makes the most sense. I think it is best to hold off on lynching any of them until later, if none of them are ever attacked. Unless further evidence points their way, I am willing to trust them for now. Regardless, PK is almost certainly good. (If it's possible, it might be good to get a Mind Force Aviar to PK so he can target himself with it to guarantee he can't be killed except by the lynch while only tying up one Trapper action. Then we guarantee a known Trapper will survive to the end. At least, I think that would work.)

 

As for the vote now, I don't really have strong suspicions about anyone. The lynch discussion and votes that go with it are very important, but I'm not in a hurry to lynch someone when most of the discussion has been about people I think are good and the Traders weren't even able to make their kill. (I think voting early on is important because it spawns discussion and shows connections between players, and trying to force a no lynch has too many ways to go wrong, but I don't think actually lynching someone, especially early on, is essential, and late votes aren't as useful.) Also, it's late and I'm too tired to do any analysis on anyone. I haven't really looked closely enough at Arraenae, but I don't understand the suspicions. So I think I'll hold off on voting for this cycle. On the other hand, with the votes as they stand a vote manipulator could change the lynch from Arraenae to one of the Sori. Although I suppose that happening would be enough to prompt more discussion the next cycle.

[Mailliw73]

The papaya says to kill Hellscythe.

But, I'd rather kill Ada. Water. Something seems wrong with his posts.

[STINK]

Something seems wrong with your posts!

[Hellscythe]

Anything but the Papaya!

[Elbereth]

If it was an eliminator, do we think they chose to manipulate one of their own votes, or is Elbereth more likely to be good?

 ...

It's nice to know Ada was Hidden. That doesn't guarantee the Traders attacked him, but it seems likely. Of course, it's still possible it was a WGG. Ada's claim that he purposefully voted to give evidence that he was Hidden seems odd to me because then that just tells the Traders he is an open target during the next cycle, even if he wasn't attacked. I can't shake the feeling that it would be a good way to pull off a WGG with Hidden instead of something that shows up in the writeup ("look, I was Hidden and there was no attack--they must have attacked me"). However, I think the explanation that the Traders tried to attack Ada is simple enough to accept. Protecting him would be a good idea. I am a bit worried, though, that making it obvious where Death Sight is would make it easy for a Trader with an Observant Aviar to find who has a Death Sight Aviar and possibly get rid of it. (If it's a WGG, that could even be the point of asking for that protection. I'm probably too paranoid though.) Mind Force might be safer to use, even if it means Ada's Aviar wouldn't be useful, although it could also be good for a Trapper's Observant Aviar to watch him for if he is attacked (in which case Mind Force wouldn't be good). (Not that anything I say about how Aviar should be used is useful at this point since a lot of people won't be on to see it before the turn ends. I always take way too long to write anything.)

...I didn't even realize my vote was changed until you said that. Hmph. I don't like people manipulating my vote! (I would use an appropriate book swear here, but I can't think of any from Sixth of the Dusk.)

While that is a good point about Eliminators with Observant Aviar, I feel like you're giving Traders ideas, and potentially making protection roles more hesitant to protect likely good people, clearing the way for Eliminators. That's enough to put up a vote, Luckat.

Also, I feel like the thing with Arrenae is because there isn't another viable option except the three players who are likely (though not necessarily) good, so players are seizing whatever chance they have to direct the vote away from those three.

[Eolhondras]

(I would use an appropriate book swear here, but I can't think of any from Sixth of the Dusk.)

 

By the Mother/Father works I guess, but my recent reread has me of the opinion that the people of the Eelkin Isles are rather good natured and refrain from swearing all that much.

[Elbereth]

Good to know.

[TheMightyLopen]

Ada, you were most likely attacked by the Traders(the simplest answer is usually the correct one and all that). Arraenae was most likely not. I disagreed with your opinions, just as I disagreed with Arraenae's. I never said that what you said wasn't suspicious. I just think you're more likely to be a trapper than her.(Also, how is jumping on someone and pouncing on someone any different?  )

[luckat]

While that is a good point about Eliminators with Observant Aviar, I feel like you're giving Traders ideas, and potentially making protection roles more hesitant to protect likely good people, clearing the way for Eliminators. That's enough to put up a vote, Luckat.

Also, I feel like the thing with Arrenae is because there isn't another viable option except the three players who are likely (though not necessarily) good, so players are seizing whatever chance they have to direct the vote away from those three.

 

If the Traders have an Observant Aviar, I'm sure they already figured out they can use it to find the protection that was publicly asked for in the thread. It's not exactly a difficult idea to come up with if that Aviar is on your mind. If I constantly edited myself based on what might give the Traders some ideas, I would end up saying next to nothing. If everyone did, that would just clear the way for Traders to use any ideas they can come up with without most of the Trappers planning for them. Also, I don't think it's fair to ask our protective roles to take a risk when they might not even know the risk is there. It could even be said people asking for protection publicly are trying to clear the way for Trader Observant Aviar to work. I don't want to stop them from protecting Ada if they think that is the best idea, and if I had a Death Sight Aviar, I probably would protect him even having considered Observant Aviar, but I also don't want them to make a decision blind. (Or maybe, if it is likely he will get protection, it would be good for other types of Aviar like Mind Shield and Power Sensing and Messenger to target him too so the Traders don't know anyone who targets him has to have a Death Sight Aviar. I'm just throwing out my thoughts.)

 

That does seem to be what it is with Arraenae. I just don't really feel good enough about the situation to add my vote anywhere.

[Elkanah]

I'm not sure how to move forward from here. So if I understand, the general consensus is Kynedath, Stink, and definitely Paranoid King are good, but we might lynch them anyway. I don't want to go after them. I hate to jump on a bandwagon, but I'm most suspicious of Arraenae. It's mostly just gut though, and I don't like voting for people without giving them something to defend against. I'll go ahead and give her another day to see what happens. Let's get some of the votes to move forward with some new targets. wow, this code stuff is hard

Edit: stupid autocorrect

Edited February 3, 2016 by Elkanah

[Eolhondras]

The days work was almost over. The group of trappers and traders seemed content to bicker and argue for now, but as night drew closer their thirst for blood only grew. More than likely another life would be lost this day. Such was the way of things.

 

1 hour till the end of cycle!

[RippleGylf]

Stink.

perilous

I don't really feel like any of the people up for lynch are eliminators. I am most suspicious of Arraenae, but the votes on her seem rather sudden. If she turns out to be a villager, I would bet that some eliminators were involved with the lynch.

[Eolhondras]

The cycle is over, writeup to come soon.

[Eolhondras]

Pepe was having a hard time making friends. Everything had happened so suddenly, he just retreated into his shell and couldn’t get out. Maybe getting out of his shell was the first step. Then he could see about figuring out what to do about this situation. With his mind made up, there was no way Pepe wasn’t going to get out of his shell. Pepe didn’t take no for an answer. Even from Pepe.

-----

The sun had a way to go yet before it began to cross over the horizon, but everyone in their gathering was itching to be away to safety before night fell. The day’s discussion had been fruitful, many finding their voices after their weeks of isolation. And eventually a consensus had formed that one of their number was more out of place than the others. NeLaar knew nothing of the ways of the trappers. It seemed irresponsible for the trading company to send someone so ignorant to the ways of the island, but none the less, it was the best lead they had and the decision had been made that he must die.

The mob came at him with machetes like they had the first and just as quickly retreated while a few searched the body for signs of being a trader. Shouts of surprise came from those standing by the body as NeLaar’s flesh seemed to twist around itself and begin closing some of the gashes covering his skin. Surprise was quickly taken over by fear and the trappers hastily began gathering the components of a fire. They did not know what this unnatural being was, but it would burn. Burn until nothing remained but charred bones.

Rain crouched over the last embers of the dying fire, absent mindedly pushing NeLaar’s remains around like a child playing with its food. The unmistakable chink of metal brought him back to his senses and he had a closer look between the bones. There, as black as everything else, he found a shape that was a little too symmetrical to be a bone. Picking it up with his coat to avoid the embers, Rain gave the rod a quick wipe and found the soot came away easily to reveal what seemed to be copper. A quick search of the rest of the fire pit yielded another identical rod and Rain pocketed them both quickly before heading towards the safe camp. A mystery this was, but a mystery for another day. For now, he had to rest. There was work to be done tonight.

-----

First light would rise in an hour. Fourth of the Rain needed to make haste. As he lightly struck the forest floor, a muffled squawk sounded from the hessian sack in his hands. A sharp shake drew a hiss out of the aviar inside and Rain allowed himself a chuckle before setting of into the darkness. He had never liked his sisters aviar. Jay she called it. An idiotic thing at the best of times, but fortunately it did not need wits to serve his purpose. Stealing Dawn’s aviar less than an hour before she was due to wake up was certainly a risk, but heading into the forest without a mind shield was suicide in daylight, let alone during the night. Unfortunately, his task left him little choice.

During the gathering the previous day, one of Rain’s associates with fast hands, had managed to sneak a glance at the notebook of a particularly unfortunate trapper. Fortunately for Rain, the trapper was quite young and had only one safe house listed, saving the trouble of checking 2 or 3 before he found his mark. A blessing that he was very grateful for. The sooner this was over, the better.

Rain slowed slightly as he drew closer. Eyes constantly scanning the ground and branches in front of him for signs of tripwires, pitfalls, poisoned spikes or any other conceivable terror that might be in place to deter visitors. Once again thankful for the inexperience of his prey, Rain had no trouble finding his way to the base of a thick trunked tree which had roughly disguised hand and foot holes carved into the side. A brief glance to the east told Rain that he had roughly three fours of an hour to be back at Dawn’s safe camp without arousing suspicion. No time to waste. He dropped the sack at the base of the tree, and with machete between his teeth, began the climb.

Rain stood over the sleeping trapper and bit his lip to stop his hand shaking. He had killed men before of course, found them in his traps, but this was different. Cold blood he could live with, but when he had received the information about the location of this safe house, he had also been told the trappers name. Funny, he thought, how one small detail makes it impossible to dehumanise a hunk of meat that is soon to have its throat slit. As the taste of blood began to fill Rain’s mouth, his resolve strengthened and he knelt slowly to straddle the man beneath him. Making a fist with his right hand and cradling the machete in his left, he took one last breath to steady his composure, and struck. His right hand came down hard into the man’s stomach and up into the diaphragm, forcing all the air from his lungs. Just as soon as he had made the first blow the machete slashed quickly across the throat, severing arteries and wind pipe as it went. Jumping back quickly, lest he get too much blood on himself, Rain looked down at the wide eyes of Fourth of the Moon. The pain in those eyes screamed at Rain although Moon himself made no sound as blood flooded into his empty lungs. A horrific death certainly, but a silent one. Satisfied that Moon needed no more assistance in reaching the afterlife, Rain, turned and began his return trek, praying for the sun to stay beneath the horizon.

-----

NeLaar (Arraenae) was lynched! he was a Regular Trapper!
Fourth of the Moon (luckat) was killed by the Traders! He was a Patji!

Edited.
Arraenae (3): Hellscythe, Lopen, PK
Kynedath (2): Adavantos, Clanky
Stink (1): Water
Water (1): Stink
Adavantos (1): Mailliw,
Luckat (1): Elbereth,

Apologies.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Alvron

[Elbereth]

Goodbye, RP friend.

Well, I guess there is the upside that I get to keep Cesarlii now!

[Water]

Someone tried and failed to guess my code. >.<

 

Unfortunately they had no Aviar.

 

So, about the lynch. What was it based on? Arraenae pointed out something that Adavantos did; inconsistent with his usual patterns. Adavantos says something like "Oh, hahaha yeah, uhh, yeah! Haha not gonna explain that, but I'll vote for Arraenae!"

So Adavantos, I have a question for you. Why is it that you feel comfortable using examples from when you were evil to establish your innocence, but are willing to lynch other people because of examples when they were evil?

 

Saying, "She's tried to kill me before C1" doesn't really seem like a good rationale to me."

You also say here that there is a "precedence" for Arraenae trying to get you killed as an Eliminator, and use that as a further reason to guilt her.

Yet here, you use examples of when you were evil to try to establish your innocence. Why the double standard?

[Amanuensis]

First things first, I'm going to compare the vote tally from the end of last cycle to the one from this write up, to determine if any votes were manipulated, then comb through the vote tallies from cycle one and two for suspicious reoccurrences.

 

Vote tally before turnover:

 

Arraenae(3): Hellscythe, Lopen, PK

Kynedath(2): Adavantos, Clanky

Stink(1): Water

Water(1): Stink

Adavantos (1): Mailliw,

Luckat (1): Elbereth, 

 

Vote tally after turnover:

 

​Arraenae (3): Hellscythe, TheMightyLopen, Paranoid King

​Kynedath (2): Adavantos, Clanky

​STINK (1): Water

​Water (1): STINK

luckat (1): Elbereth

 

Everything checks out except for Mailliw's vote disappearing, therefore he either hid himself or was Mind Forced. Considering that there was an Trader kill this time, I don't want to read too much into it because it guarantees that he did not put in the kill order, so he is most likely not a Trader. I say most likely because we have only 15 players left, 4 of which I would reason are Traders, therefore Mailliw being one of eleven is a lot more likely than one of three. Granted this doesn't rule him out as an eliminator, but so far the only thing he has done so far that I find suspicious is the minimal reasoning he provides for his votes, which he does every game. Now to look at the vote tally from the first cycle.

 

Cycle One Lynch Tally: 

 

Phattemer (4): Paranoid King, Arraenae, Mailliw73, Elbereth

Adavantos (1): IrulelikeSTINK

Mailliw73 (2): luckat, TheMightyLopen

Shallan (2): Elkanah, Clanky

TheSilverDragon (2): Shallan, Water

 

Here's my thoughts about early lynches. Unless there's a drastic, last minute shift (a la the Shallan Debacle of LG15b) it is more likely that the eliminators are not going to get involved if the village seems to be willing to kill one of their own. They are either going to abstain from voting entirely or vote for a player they doubt will actually get lynched (usually disguised as a poke vote) to look like they're involved when they really are not.

 

IrulelikeSTINK: Lone poke vote for Adavantos C1, votes for himself to prove PK's innocence then later votes for Hellscythe and finally Water.

Mailliw73: Votes (and lynches) phattemer C1, votes for Water when he seems to be a candidate for the lynch and then switches to a lone vote on Ada at the end.

Shallan: Votes C1 for SilverDragon, does not vote C2.

Kynedath: Neither votes C1 or C2.

TheSilverDragon: Neither votes C1 or C2 (cannot remember if he posted C2, will confirm).

Hellscythe: Retracts his vote by the end of C1 and votes for (and lynches) Rae.

Adavantos: Votes for Kynedath C1 (hides so vote doesn't count) then votes for Kynedath more after learning he's a "Sori Messenger."

polkinghornbd: Inactive C1, active enough C2 to make a post but refrains from voting.

TheMightyLopen: Does not vote C1 due to busy schedule, votes (and lynches) C2 for Rae.

Paranoid King: Actions constantly confuse me votes (and lynches) both phatt C1 and Rae C2

Water: Votes for SilverDragon C1 and Stink C2 (can't remember circumstances of first vote but second was during the tangent he had with Stink and HS)

Elbereth: Votes for Kynedath (vote is moved to phattemer) C1 and votes for luckat towards the end of C2.

RippleGylf: Does not vote C1 and votes C2 for Stink to help confirm PK but eventually retracts towards the end.

Clanky: Votes for Shallan C1 (can't remember circumstances, will check later) and for Kynedath C2 (following a few of my posts where I presented my suspicions of Kyn).

Elkanah: Votes C1 for Shallan (can't remember circumstances, will check later) and does not for C2 (I don't think he showed up this cycle at all but might be wrong).

 

Looking at this, I am more assured that Kynedath is evil. He only seemed to post when he needed to defend himself and disappeared when his life seemed safe. That, on top of the fact that he is one of five players who has not fully participated in the lynch (SilverDragon, RippleGylf , polkinghornbd and Elkanah). As always I am considerably more suspicious of lurkers (those who stand by and watch without trying to make a difference) than I am of players who actively participate and present legitimate reasons for believing someone is an eliminator. Kynedath fits those parameters perfectly, never posting anything that suggests he is suspicious of someone (at least that I can remember). All his posts seem completely neutral to me (apart from his desire to self-preserve, which is understandable from either side) and indirectly accusatory of others (post where he comments on the Stink/Water/HS situation, trying to cast suspicion on anyone whose not getting involved). Of the other four, I am rank them in descending order of suspicion as Ripple, polking, Elkanah and SD in that order, for the following reasons. Ripple has been active enough both cycles to follow the thread and place orders, but has not committed to lynching anyone. Polking was inactive C1 but appeared long enough to post C2 (likely pressured by GM warning PM, but maybe pressured by docmates? Really I'd need to see if he was active C1 and just didn't post, but I do not remember seeing his name and it's too long to look back for true confirmation). Almost same reasons for Elkanah, except that he at least posted at the end of C1 explaining why he was not present more. Lastly SD, who was active enough C1 but disappeared C2 like Elkanah. Because of the fact he was more involved C1 than Elkanah I rank him lower.

 

I want to trust PK because participating in two village lynches in a row suggests to me cluelessness, however, I should note that BB in LG15b was an eliminator and acted very similarly at first, where he was just so obviously off that some people automatically assumed he wasn't evil. I've already accepted that one of the two Sori is telling the truth (because three Traders putting their lives at risk like that is just ridiculous) and I am more inclined to trust the public reveal than the private reveal. While a wise villager with the appropriate resources should have done what Kyn did, it is also a viable (and often used) strategy for eliminators. In Stink's case, the only reason I can fathom an eliminator would do what he did is because no one would really believe an eliminator would, which could be a great defense (it's working on me now) but as pointed out by others, Stink does things like this all the time, so it isn't exactly out of character. I would also guess Elbereth is a villager as well, simply because of the fact that she voted for luckat towards the end of the cycle and luckat was the player who was killed. Personally (besides Mailliw) I don't think most players would vote for a person they were trying to kill the same cycle, as it draws unnecessary attention to themselves.

 

As a kill, luckat makes sense in that she is a very observant and helpful player to the villagers, but also low key enough that she wasn't likely to receive protection. I doubt they killed her because they knew she was a Patji (Power Sensing Aviar only scans other Aviar) and since the write up didn't include any statements of Aviar being transferred I'd guess she didn't have one either, so that isn't why. It's possible that she posted something in thread that suggested she was onto one of them, but I'd have to go back to read her posts to determine what. I am starving right now so I'm going to go ahead and wrap this up. Will get on again sometime soon to begin doing post analysis and respond to anything directed at me.

 

 

EDIT: Ninja'd.

 

Water, on 03 Feb 2016 - 5:20 PM, said:

Someone tried and failed to guess my code. >.<

 

Unfortunately they had no Aviar.

 

So, about the lynch. What was it based on? Arraenae pointed out something that Adavantos did; inconsistent with his usual patterns. Adavantos says something like "Oh, hahaha yeah, uhh, yeah! Haha not gonna explain that, but I'll vote for Arraenae!"

So Adavantos, I have a question for you. Why is it that you feel comfortable using examples from when you were evil to establish your innocence, but are willing to lynch other people because of examples when they were evil?

 

Saying, "She's tried to kill me before C1" doesn't really seem like a good rationale to me."

You also say here that there is a "precedence" for Arraenae trying to get you killed as an Eliminator, and use that as a further reason to guilt her.

Yet here, you use examples of when you were evil to try to establish your innocence. Why the double standard?

 

You should probably read all my posts again, and even hers when she retracted on me, as you've got a lot of facts wrong. I was never willing to lynch Arraenae. My vote on Kynedath remained the entire cycle because I am genuinely suspicious of him. Any reason I had to be suspicious of Arraenae was based on conjecture alone hence why I didn't follow through with it, and at the end there even tried to intervene by asking the three players who voted for her to think about it more.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Adavantos

[STINK]

As I have said before, I am fine with killing Kynedath.

 

Kynedath.

[Hellscythe]

Well that was sad.  Not only did we lose 2 villagers and a kill role, I didn't even get any Aviar . Rae must've guessed wrong C1. Having no role and no aviar would be brutal.
 

I'm voting for Ripple for trying to implicate voters as evil at the end of the cycle.

 

In other news, Luckat was killed buy the Traders.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Hellscythe

[RippleGylf]

@Hellscythe, I merely meant that with the sudden lynch train, it would be quite a surprise if eliminators weren't involved somehow. It is also quite likely that most of the people who voted are villagers.

[Hellscythe]

I understand. I actually suspect TheSilverDragon far more than you for skulking in the background and will be placing my vote on them instead of you Ripple.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Hellscythe

[STINK]

 

 

In other news, Luckat was killed buy the Traders.

 

What do you expect? They're Traders, they buy plenty of things! 

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I've double-checked the votes last cycle, and can confirm that Maill's vote should have counted.

 

​Arraenae (3): Hellscythe, The MightyLopen, Paranoid King

​Kynedath (2): Adavantos, Clanky

​STINK (1): Water

​Water (1): STINK

luckat (1): Elbereth

Adavantos (1): Mailliw73

 

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