Mid-range Game 11: Paradise Lost

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

It would seem that PK is actually the player most likely to be a Trapper. We have STINK claiming to be a Sori and that PK is the guy who he knows is a Trapper, and then there's Kynedath, who claimed to PK in a PM that he was a Sori who knew PK was a Trapper. So in order for PK to be a Trader, STINK and Kynedath would have to be Traders as well(unless one of them is not a Sori, but is a Trapper and just thought PK was good, so they decided to fake claim Sori, but I highly doubt any Trapper in their right mind would try that). It doesn't mean that STINK and Kynedath are both telling the truth though. I was actually thinking that if the eliminators had a PM Aviar, they might try to claim Sori to someone. It's basically like false claiming a Seeker role, because you know who is a trapper already.

 

@Ripple, Okay, I see how you misunderstood my post I think. Kinda a late response, but whatever.

 

Edit: Darn it Clanky. Ninja'd 

Edited February 2, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[RippleGylf she/her]

Ah screw it, I'll officially come out. 

 

I got the role where you get to know a mentor AKA an inno. That person was PK. 

 

So yeah, I don't mind if people want to lynch me to check, that would easily give us the first confirmed person at the least, and a win is a win, even if I'm dead. 

 

Arraenae.

 

STINK.

 

Maill

 

Emphasis mine.

I feel like everyone is forgetting about this. If Stink is innocent, then PK is too. I honestly think that PK either got flustered by rule (mis)interpretation, or he's an eliminator. If we have to kill one of the two, I think we'll learn more from Stink. If Stink is innocent and dead, then PK is confirmed. If PK is innocent and dead, then no one is confirmed.

 

Edit for vote retraction.

Edited February 3, 2016 by RippleGylf

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I was roleblocked last cycle and am not Hidden. Thus, I must've had a Beautiful or a Mind Force Aviar used on me. If it was the Mind Force, then that would explain the no kill last night. Because of this, I'm wondering if one of the other players up for the lynch may have tried to kill me. Any other ideas for who this would implicate are welcome!

[twelfthrootoftwo]

 

Twei/Eol, is Sori a guaranteed village role?

Yes.

 

 

Retracting from Arraenae.

And IrulelikeSTINK, I can go for that.

GMs, what happens if the first person to vote in a lynch is the person being lynched? o.O

If they were the first person to vote for themselves, then all their Aviar are lost.

 

 

GMs is Sori a role that only one person can have such like the Shards in LG 15 or is it just a role any amount of people can have?

Any number of Trappers can have the Sori role.

[Clanky he/him]

I was roleblocked last cycle and am not Hidden. Thus, I must've had a Beautiful or a Mind Force Aviar used on me. If it was the Mind Force, then that would explain the no kill last night. Because of this, I'm wondering if one of the other players up for the lynch may have tried to kill me. Any other ideas for who this would implicate are welcome!

 

Beautiful and mind-force have quite different effects. Also looking back to the write-up your vote wasn't cancelled so it couldn't have been mind-force. Unfortunately this doesn't help us get any closer to finding out the reason for the lack of a kill. All discussion about it seemed to stop with the whole PK/Sori thing. I would like to second my request that I think it is worthwhile to have anyone whop mind-forced someone come forward since they may well have RBd the attempted killer.

[Arraenae]

NeLaar sat in her shelter, 20 feet above the ground, and mentally listed out everything she knew about First of the Sun as she snacked on a handful of tree nuts. She wasn’t sure if Harmony was listening -- she only knew he was paying attention when he responded -- but it was a good way to make sure that she didn’t forget anything.

 

1. First of the Sun was a planet with a lot of islands. The island NeLaar was on was called Amaji, the Mother. The Eelakin separated these islands into two categories: the Homeisles and the Pantheon. The Homeisles had been modernized, and some of the Eelakin wanted to bring that modernization to the Pantheon.

2. The traditional naming convention was to put the order of birth, then the time of birth, such as the names First of the Morn or Last of the Equinox. However, there was also a more modern trend, which was similar to the North Scadrialan naming convention. Some examples of these names were Avis, Gylfie, and Saludan. That last name had a hint of a Rosharan accent to it, but NeLaar wasn’t sure. If it did, the implications would be enormous.

3. The typical method the trappers used to deal with situations seemed to be death. When Axis had said that he discussing Sun’s death was pointless, the other trappers had grown increasingly suspicious of him before one of them took a knife to his neck.

4. Aviar were extremely important. All the trappers --

 

Something crashed in the distance and NeLaar jumped. Was that another trader? She blinked and slid into Noon’s perspective.

 

My Aviar! she thought. Her hand fell on the handle of her machete and she ran towards the cages she’d constructed for her Aviar. Cesarlii -- Sanaru -- Steak -- if another trapper was trying to steal them -- or worse, a traitor from the Northern Interests --

 

Noon climbed up the tree her shelter was on. Up, up, up another few branches…

 

The cages were intact. Noon relaxed and stopped climbing the tree. Then she frowned.

 

Where had Cesarlii gone? Sanaru and Steak were mostly dull colored, perfectly suited to camouflaging in a jungle. But Cesarlii was bright blue, so he ought to be visible.

 

Noon climbed up to the cages and gasped in shock. Here initial assessment had been correct: the cages were intact. Mostly. But the doors of them had been unlatched, so there was a gaping hole in the fronds and wires.

 

Only a human could have opened the doors. Someone had stolen Noon’s Aviar.

 

 

Yes, Noon/NeLaar has an Aviar named Steak. She was very hungry when she acquired him. No, I did not start off with three Aviar, but RPing with zero didn't seem quite right either.

 

EDIT: formatting

Edited February 2, 2016 by Arraenae

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Maill

 

Emphasis mine.

I feel like everyone is forgetting about this. If Stink is innocent, then PK is too. I honestly think that PK either got flustered by rule (mis)interpretation, or he's an eliminator. If we have to kill one of the two, I think we'll learn more from Stink. If Stink is innocent and dead, then PK is confirmed. If PK is innocent and dead, then no one is confirmed.

 

PK is practically confirmed anyways, so it's not like we have to kill Stink in order to confirm PK. Also, I think it would probably be best to lynch based on suspicion, rather than lynching to "confirm" someone else. What if the Traders just attacked PK? Sure, we could protect him, but are we just gonna protect him every Cycle? Not a bad idea I suppose(because when the numbers start to get really low, it's helpful to have even one confirmed player), but then it's possible that multiple protection roles will target him, and the Traders would have a much easier time getting their kills to go through on other targets.

 

Beautiful and mind-force have quite different effects. Also looking back to the write-up your vote wasn't cancelled so it couldn't have been mind-force. Unfortunately this doesn't help us get any closer to finding out the reason for the lack of a kill. All discussion about it seemed to stop with the whole PK/Sori thing. I would like to second my request that I think it is worthwhile to have anyone whop mind-forced someone come forward since they may well have RBd the attempted killer.

 

But there's a lot of other ways for a kill to be blocked other than Mind Force. All of these roles/Aviar can block a kill: Skilled Trapper, Hidden, Death Sight and Mind Force. Though I'm wondering how the kills show up if they're blocked by Skilled Trapper or Death Sight.

 

GM's! Can you tell us how blocked attacks will show up in the write-up, if any do at all?

 

Hidden and Mind Force make players untargetable, while Skilled Trapper and Death Sight let the kill Action go through, but block it(while Skilled Trapper gets their extra life taken away). So as it stands, I think the kill was blocked by either a Hidden trapper or someone who had Mind Force used on them, but I'd rather get confirmation from the GM's(if possible), before suggesting that anyone reveals a role like Mind Force, which could be a big pain to the Traders, and so should stay hidden as best as possible.

[luckat she/her]

GM's! Can you tell us how blocked attacks will show up in the write-up, if any do at all?

Twei already answered this:

 

Hidden and Mind Force only inform the attacker that their action failed. Death Sight and Skilled are both revealed in the writeup, along with the name of the player who was attacked.

 

 

As far as I can tell, the only possibilities for the lack of an attack are that it was blocked by Hidden or Mind Force or the Traders didn’t send in an attack. We already know Ada was Hidden/Mind Forced, so it might not be necessary to look any further for the reason the attack was blocked. However, if anyone else was Hidden or Mind Forced, it might have been them that attacked or was attacked.

 

While I’m posting, here’s a vote tally:

Arraenae (0): PK {1}, Stink {1}, Water {1}

Water (1): Arraenae {1}, HS {1}

Polking (0): PK {2}

PK (3): Ada {1}, Maill {1}, Polking {1}

Ada (0): PK {3}

Stink (3): Stink {2}, Water {2}, Ripple {2}

Maill (0): Ripple {1}

Kynedath (0): PK {4}

Organized:

PK (3): Ada, Maill, Polking

Stink (3): Stink, Water, Ripple

Water (1): HS

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Hey white text people. I haven't ventured into this place for awhile. How's the secrecy been?

Twei already answered this:
 

As far as I can tell, the only possibilities for the lack of an attack are that it was blocked by Hidden or Mind Force or the Traders didn’t send in an attack. We already know Ada was Hidden/Mind Forced, so it might not be necessary to look any further for the reason the attack was blocked. However, if anyone else was Hidden or Mind Forced, it might have been them that attacked or was attacked.

 

Whoops, sorry. I should pay better attention. 

 

So, seeing as it was by Hidden/Mind Force(or the off-chance that the Traders didn't send in a kill), I'd still say it's probably not the best idea to reveal if you used Mind Force on anyone. Because then, if the Traders didn't attack that person, they'll know that you have that role, as well as the fact that whoever they attacked was also protected by Mind Force/Hidden, and if they hit someone who has the Hidden role, we don't want them to know that, because the Hidden role probably works best when it's hidden. (And no, I'm not just saying that for the joke. Who would ever do such a thing?  )

[Arraenae]

I'm placing a vote on Adavantos for a very dramatic change of behavior.

On D1, very close to turnover, he posted this:

Ladies, gentleman. Sorry for my absence so far. Not going to lie but life's been a bit hectic lately. Can barely seem to find the time to sleep. Would love an unkeyed bronzemind right about now. Sadly that means I won't be able to fit in any analysis this cycle, though I should be able to tackle it soon and hopefully find a connection or two to help point us in the right direction.

I've underlined parts of the post that normally would be in blue text, but for some reason this game is in black text. In any other person, I wouldn't think this is suspicious. However, Ada has very strong views of what color text OOG things should be in. In the MR10 eliminator doc, he wrote this:

Black text means it’s not necessarily truthful and worth analysis (I.E. a player could just be saying they’re busy when they’re actually not) whereas blue text means it should not be looked at any further than the truth.

It actually came up in LG15 and I insisted that if anyone say anything in regards to their real life that impacts the game they put it into blue so that they don’t waste my time looking into it; one of the eliminators ended up taunting me about it in white text, so I just think it’s best if I continuously remind people to put OOG information in blue text as it was meant to be.

Because it’s black text I can’t know for certain whether it’s the whole truth or an exaggeration; it’s very common for people to guilt others into reacting a certain way in real life, and given this is a game on the internet, I don’t imagine many people would feel it beneath them to do the same; not an attack against you personally, just my personal opinion on discussing real life in a game.

An example of Ada using blue text is here, from QF12:

Okay, so, here's what I don't understand. ...

Bout to go out for some refreshments again. As a result, this will likely be my last post this cycle. Will probably be online to respond to whatever happens around the same time I put up my first post today.

Clearly, Ada believes that anything pertaining to real life should be in blue and anything not should be in black. However, in his original post, he said that "life's been a bit hectic lately" preventing him from being able to play normally, and he puts this all in blue text, not black text. The original post was justified, so the issue is not that he had no time to format.

Again, this is a drastic change of behavior on Ada's part, and I would like an explanation.

Edit: color

Edited February 3, 2016 by Arraenae

[Water]

The actual reason is most likely that he forgot. really

I don't feel comfortable going along with a suspicion that relates to RL stuff, and frankly, if an Eliminator used black text to lie about RL, their reputation deserves to go way down. That's just plain not nice.

[STINK he/him]

Gotta be careful around Rae, apparently she notes down everything you say...

Or is it just for Ada?

[Hellscythe he/him]

AxA2016

include include

Edited February 2, 2016 by Hellscythe

[STINK he/him]

You trying to steal my ship?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Again, this is a drastic change of behavior on Ada's part, and I would like an explanation.

Was wondering if / when someone would catch that. I have an explanation but would rather not say.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Was wondering if / when someone would catch that. I have an explanation but would rather not say.

 

The explanation being that you're a TRADER!?!   Oh-ho! I've got you now Ada. (Will I finally be able to fulfill my dream of lynching an eliminator Ada?)

[Amanuensis he/him]

The explanation being that you're a TRADER!?!   Oh-ho! I've got you now Ada. (Will I finally be able to fulfill my dream of lynching an eliminator Ada?)

 

It should be obvious why I would black text that paragraph in this game. If I were an eliminator I wouldn't make it obvious through something as simple as changing the color of my text.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

It should be obvious why I would black text that paragraph in this game. If I were an eliminator I wouldn't make it obvious through something as simple as changing the color of my text.

 

Well it was only a joke anyways, you don't have to give more hints.   Although I haven't figured out the reason, but I haven't really tried. Too tired. I guess I'll remove the vote if you're gonna get all defensive.  Ada

[RippleGylf she/her]

PK is practically confirmed anyways, so it's not like we have to kill Stink in order to confirm PK. Also, I think it would probably be best to lynch based on suspicion, rather than lynching to "confirm" someone else. What if the Traders just attacked PK? Sure, we could protect him, but are we just gonna protect him every Cycle? Not a bad idea I suppose(because when the numbers start to get really low, it's helpful to have even one confirmed player), but then it's possible that multiple protection roles will target him, and the Traders would have a much easier time getting their kills to go through on other targets.

 

I know this, but the three people voting for PK say otherwise. If we must kill a pretty much confirmed villager, it should at least be the one that will confirm the other. If PK dies and is innocent, Stink and Kynedath could both still be Traders.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Well it was only a joke anyways, you don't have to give more hints.   Although I haven't figured out the reason, but I haven't really tried. Too tired. I guess I'll remove the vote if you're gonna get all defensive.  Ada

 

No worries you're a smart guy so I'm sure you'll figure it out. Just didn't want to spell it out for everyone to see, for obvious reasons, once you do.

 

Anyway, since it's been nearly 24 hours, I might as well shed some light on the Mystery of the Missing Eliminator Kill. I do indeed have the Hidden role, and if my vote reduction last cycle is a testament to anything, it's because I'm telling the truth about that. I debated saving it for this cycle, but was a bit paranoid about being killed before I even had the time to really participate in this game, due to the fact I was too preoccupied last cycle to get on for longer than a few minutes. I put in the order to hide at the same time I voted for Kyn. I didn't want to unintentionally impact the lynch in a meaningful way so I decided to choose a player not at risk of dying and who my gut was relatively suspicious of at the time. My plan was, in the off chance that I was attacked, to lay down some evidence to support that I was actually hiding, as I knew at the time that it would not appear in the write up and thus I needed a vote to disappear to prove it. Because the Hidden role is staggered that means I am vulnerable to death every other cycle, so my intent was to both get protection for those gaps and so that I can use my Aviar's ability without having to fear dying before I can reveal the results.

 

You might be wondering why I waited 24 hours to tell everyone this. Well, at first I thought about just saying it outright after reading the write up, but because I was never told I was attacked I wasn't sure, so I decided it would be best to spark some discussion in the thread regarding it to see if there could be another explanation. That's when luckat chimed in and explained that the Mind Force ability is similar to my own, excect that it can target others, which I had not thought of before. I thought about trying to mislead the eliminators into thinking that was the reason I survived so that they wouldn't attack me again this cycle and I wouldn't have to get protected, but then I realized that could also make me look bad because if people thought I was roleblocked by someone else then they could twist it to say that the reason no one died is because I put a kill order in, which is not what happened.

 

I wanted to see who would actively try to figure out what happened (I'd guess that they're most likely villagers, but could be eliminators who want to mislead us) and who just avoided talking about the lack of an eliminator kill outright (something I find suspicious, personally, because as an eliminator they would have already figured out why their target didn't die, assuming it is me, and wouldn't want to give the villagers any ideas). I also wanted to see if anyone (an eliminator?) would try to implicate me knowing that the most successful way for them to get rid of me would be by lynching me, given my "reputation." Considering I've never survived a game as a villager, I know it's inevitable that I will die this game, but obviously people don't join these games just to get killed (except Stink, apparently), so I decided to use what resources I had at my disposal to delay my untimely demise.

 

I know this, but the three people voting for PK say otherwise. If we must kill a pretty much confirmed villager, it should at least be the one that will confirm the other. If PK dies and is innocent, Stink and Kynedath could both still be Traders.

 

Also, PK. I'm going to vote for Kynedath again, for the same reasons I outlined yesterday with the additional evidence of him having PM'd PK claiming to be a Sori. While it's possible the GMs would make it so multiple Sori's knew the same player (effectively creating a trusted hub) I personally think that's the opposite of what any GM would want to happen in these games (apart from Water, we've all heard the arguments against Mayor games), so I think it's very likely one of the two are Traders. Now, if I put myself in a Traders perspective, I can understand establishing a PM with a random player and trying to gain their trust by pretending to be a Sori, but what I cannot understand is revealing it openly in thread along with a self vote. The former is shady and private, the perfect situation for manipulation to ripen, while the latter is unnecessarily risky. I do find it odd that of 18 players they both chose the same exact player (by now you all should know how I feel about coincidences) but personally it makes more sense to me that one of them is lying, and right now I'm leaning towards Kynedath

Edited February 2, 2016 by Adavantos

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 

Also, PK. I'm going to vote for Kynedath again, for the same reasons I outlined yesterday with the additional evidence of him having PM'd PK claiming to be a Sori. While it's possible the GMs would make it so multiple Sori's knew the same player (effectively creating a trusted hub) I personally think that's the opposite of what any GM would want to happen in these games (apart from Water, we've all heard the arguments against Mayor games), so I think it's very likely one of the two are Traders. Now, if I put myself in a Traders perspective, I can understand establishing a PM with a random player and trying to gain their trust by pretending to be a Sori, but what I cannot understand is revealing it openly in thread along with a self vote. The former is shady and private, the perfect situation for manipulation to ripen, while the latter is unnecessarily risky. I do find it odd that of 18 players they both chose the same exact player (by now you all should know how I feel about coincidences) but personally it makes more sense to me that one of them is lying, and right now I'm leaning towards Kynedath

 

 

I was thinking the opposite actually. Making it so that there's 2 Sori's who have the same Mentor doesn't make a trusted hub at all. It could in theory I suppose, but players don't tend to be that trusting. The only players who know they can trust someone is the Sori, who knows they can trust their Mentor. So, in this case, if Stink and Kynedath are telling the truth and are both Sori's, they don't have any way to confirm that. PK also can't just blindly trust either of them either. Just because they claim to "know" he's a trapper doesn't clear them in his eyes. So that means that out of the 3 players in this situation, only Stink and Kynedath can trust 1 player: PK. But other than that, there's no proof for anyone of them to trust any of the others.

 

So, you're saying you think it's more likely that a Trader picked PK as the one to talk to and try and manipulate by claiming Sori? And he just happened to actually have a Sori friend? That's a pretty big coincidence, imo(and I know you mention coincidences, but you seem to imply you don't think it was a coincidence, meaning what exactly? That both Stink and Kynedath are Traders?). I think it would make more sense for it to have been a GM thing(meaning I think it's more likely the GM's decided to make both Sori's(I don't think there would be that many, so 2 sounds like the right number) have the same Mentor, rather than eliminator stuff).

[STINK he/him]

Better to check than let evil live.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I was thinking the opposite actually. Making it so that there's 2 Sori's who have the same Mentor doesn't make a trusted hub at all. It could in theory I suppose, but players don't tend to be that trusting. The only players who know they can trust someone is the Sori, who knows they can trust their Mentor. So, in this case, if Stink and Kynedath are telling the truth and are both Sori's, they don't have any way to confirm that. PK also can't just blindly trust either of them either. Just because they claim to "know" he's a trapper doesn't clear them in his eyes. So that means that out of the 3 players in this situation, only Stink and Kynedath can trust 1 player: PK. But other than that, there's no proof for anyone of them to trust any of the others.

 

So, you're saying you think it's more likely that a Trader picked PK as the one to talk to and try and manipulate by claiming Sori? And he just happened to actually have a Sori friend? That's a pretty big coincidence, imo(and I know you mention coincidences, but you seem to imply you don't think it was a coincidence, meaning what exactly? That both Stink and Kynedath are Traders?). I think it would make more sense for it to have been a GM thing(meaning I think it's more likely the GM's decided to make both Sori's(I don't think there would be that many, so 2 sounds like the right number) have the same Mentor, rather than eliminator stuff).

 

The reason I think a single player having two Sori is unlikely is because of how it impacts the lynch. It's one thing to have a single player automatically know not to vote for you. But two? That seems like a bit of a stretch. Assuming both Stink and Kynedath really are Sori, that means they would likely do whatever it takes to make sure he doesn't get lynched. That's a lot more powerful than the Trusted side role in LG16, for example, because not only does it remove two potential votes stacking against PK but just about guarantees two votes being used to keep him from dying.

 

As for the bit about the trusted hub, that was more directed on the fact that a player with a Messenger Aviar also was a Sori. While I agree that isn't super dangerous because of the fact that PK can't confirm Kyn is telling the truth without him dying, it does mean that Kyn is free to dump everything he knows onto PK, and that the two would be able to collaborate together without revealing themselves to the Traders. Of course that is impossible now because of Stink's public reveal resulting in PK outing him, but still.

 

Also, my philosophy on coincidences is not that there's always a conspiracy involved, but that there's usually more to the story than what we see at face value. However I do see where you are coming from and am willing to revise my thoughts. It's possible I'm tunneling on Kyn like I did Orlok in QF12 and my mind is just trying to make up reasons for him to be evil instead of finding actual evidence. Though I will leave my vote on him as I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on the subject, in addition to my previous post involving my theory on why there was no eliminator kill.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Adavantos

[Kynedath]

Also, PK. I'm going to vote for Kynedath again, for the same reasons I outlined yesterday with the additional evidence of him having PM'd PK claiming to be a Sori. While it's possible the GMs would make it so multiple Sori's knew the same player (effectively creating a trusted hub) I personally think that's the opposite of what any GM would want to happen in these games (apart from Water, we've all heard the arguments against Mayor games), so I think it's very likely one of the two are Traders. Now, if I put myself in a Traders perspective, I can understand establishing a PM with a random player and trying to gain their trust by pretending to be a Sori, but what I cannot understand is revealing it openly in thread along with a self vote. The former is shady and private, the perfect situation for manipulation to ripen, while the latter is unnecessarily risky. I do find it odd that of 18 players they both chose the same exact player (by now you all should know how I feel about coincidences) but personally it makes more sense to me that one of them is lying, and right now I'm leaning towards Kynedath

 

Yesterday, your reason for voting for me was my reasons for not voting. Let me explain this one more time. I don't tend to vote on day-1 due to the lack of evidence that is provided when lynching somebody. I believe that if we are going to kill a person, there should be evidence that they are evil, or at least evidence that they are possibly evil. I realize that people are going to lynch someone no matter what, so I observe other people's reactions and collect information. It is a way that I can be useful while still upholding my beliefs.

 

Now as for today's events, I think that Lopen explains it quite well. Just adding onto it, this isn't making a trust hub, as seen from this entire conversation. Also, It would make a little bit of sense for an eliminator to publicly claim, just hoping to cause confusion like what happened, but that would be taking a huge risk in getting lynched. But somehow STINK doesn't seem to mind that at all.

 

As to who we should lynch, I don't really know. I don't think that there is enough reason for us to kill either me or STINK, and OK has literally been proven innocent at this point. There would be no reason to lynch him, not even trying to find an eliminator. As for the two Sori's that are implicated, I think that it is likely there are two for PK.

 

I just realized the word-play on Trader. Traitor. Traidor! 

 

Edit: Ninja'd by Ada.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Kynedath

[Arraenae]

 

I just realized the word-play on Trader. Traitor. Traidor! 

 

I figured that out D1... >

On a completely unrelated note, I finally completed my LG15b banner! Took me two and a half months, but now I'm done!