Quick Fix Game 12: The Time of Reckoning

[Guest]

This suggests that Kipper was the one who tried to get me killed by changing Stephs vote to me. Kipper?

I have Heat Vision, so this is one of the random results. I did not manipulate anyone's vote. Interestingly enough, I also did not get a notification that I was followed, so either this was a GM mistake or Orlok is lying.

[Clanky he/him]

 

Assuming 19 people & 5 different passive powers, I'm going with a possible 4 epics with heat vision.

5 epics have died and 3 had heat vision. So the chance that Clanky had heat vision is 1/14.

The chance of me scanning him to have killed someone is 1/5. 1/5 * 1/14 is 1/70 chance that Clanky is not a reckoner.

So yeah, he's almost certainly a reckoner.

 

 

Could I just get some background on this math here PK? I'm not sure exactly how this points to me being 69/70 a reckoner.

 

I thought Adavantos had done it because if I were an eliminator, I would have revealed one of my eliminator allies. I figured that Clanky and i would have equal evidence unless ripple was found guilty.

If Ripple was guilty, then I would be killed. When I'm found innocent, Clanky would be killed. So that's 2 eliminators for the price of 1 innocent.

If Ripple was innocent, then clanky would be killed. That's 1 eliminator for 1 innocent

And in either case, if clanky were innocent, Adavantos would eventually be killed, so I figure voting for ripple was good sense.

 

For all we know none of the people involved in this are reckoners. If we go by that logic we could just kill half the players in the game thinking that someone involved here has to be bad. 

[Paranoid King he/him]

Either you or Adavantos is likely a reckoner, based on that someone made the reckoner kill along with the matter disruption kill. Someone needs to send the kill order, and I scanned you as having made a kill order.

I scanned someone before as having killed someone, but they had heat vision. I don't think that's likely in your case, though, because most of the heat vision people have already been eliminated.

So if you killed someone and Adavantos killed someone, that means that one of you is a reckoner.

 

For all we know none of the people involved in this are reckoners. If we go by that logic we could just kill half the players in the game thinking that someone involved here has to be bad. 

One of these people is almost certainly a reckoner. In most cases, I wouldn't have done that, but I know that one of these people is a reckoner, I just need to narrow down which one. And killing an epic is an acceptable loss for finding a reckoner. Especially when he's one of the more active ones and we can analyze his previous posts to find more reckoners.

[Clanky he/him]

Either you or Adavantos is likely a reckoner, based on that someone made the reckoner kill along with the matter disruption kill. Someone needs to send the kill order, and I scanned you as having made a kill order.

I scanned someone before as having killed someone, but they had heat vision. I don't think that's likely in your case, though, because most of the heat vision people have already been eliminated.

So if you killed someone and Adavantos killed someone, that means that one of you is a reckoner.

 

 

Considering that there were 3 kills last night that isn't the case. We both claim to have killed Araris and both of those attacks seem to have been done by matter disrupters. That would mean a third player made the Reckoner kill and since you don't have to be a matter disrupter to make that kill it could be anyone. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I have Heat Vision, so this is one of the random results. I did not manipulate anyone's vote. Interestingly enough, I also did not get a notification that I was followed, so either this was a GM mistake or Orlok is lying.

 

So then you'd make four players with Heat Vision, which in its own right is relatively suspicious. Now, I want to believe you because I called Orlok D1, and I'd rather be right about him being evil like I was so confident of to begin with. I've consciously tried to step back from him so that I could ensure I wasn't tunneling, but my gut suspicion still hasn't left me.

 

That being said, I don't necessarily trust you either. But I certainly trust you more than him at the moment. Especially now that PK and Steph have admitted to having Invisibility. It does seem very weird to me, however, that both have the exact same ability combination; but considering Clanky and I do too, and that I know I'm not a Reckoner and don't believe he is either, I guess it's possible they could both good, or maybe even both evil. PK could be the actual Reckoner with Invisibility whereas Steph is just supporting his claim to get Clanky lynched, while tonight they kill me and thus remove any night attacks on them while gaining lynch superiority with their Illusionist and 2x Magnified Persuasion. But that's just a theory; dunno how accurate it is. And I guess we won't know for sure until they die.

 

Honestly I have a lot of mixed feelings about who I should attack tonight. What does everyone think? There's a lot of statements that are conflicting with one another. We really need to tease out whose lying and whose telling the truth so we can take action sooner rather than later.

[Guest]

It's kind of hard to lie about having Heat Vision, honestly. I'm not sure we're even allowed to lie about GM issues. But I swear I'm telling the truth when I say I did not receive a notification of being followed from the GM. I've asked for a clarification and will definitely keep everyone posted on that. Addendum: I checked after writing this post and before posting it, and the GM just PMd me saying that it was a mistake, and someone followed me. So Orlok is probably telling the truth about having Invisibility.

Also, Telepath #3 PMd me to say that he is not a Gifter, but has received an extra ability from a Gifter. This would only leave Mailliw as the Gifter, so I will retract my vote on him. To be honest, I still think #3 could be the Gifter, as it would seem kind of weird if a Gifter was allowed to Gift to themselves, but I'll remove the vote just in case.

If I had to choose a Reckoner team right now, it would be:

1. Arraenae. As I mentioned before, she seemed way too eager in our PM to know who the other Telepath was (and I realize it's probably hard for you all to get tone out of the PM transcript, so take this for what it's worth), without giving any information of her own out. Also, she had some plan to be able to identify #2 in case I died.

2. Queensteph. It seems kind of weird that she basically just copied everything PK said, in an attempt to clear him. Still, she could have just gotten lucky.

3. Ripplegylf has been skating all game, just making one- or two-liner posts agreeing with other people.

4. For the fourth it's a tossup. Bridge Boy has made two posts this cycle, and the second is totally irrelevant to anything. On the other hand, if Clanky is an Eliminator, he could have been working with Arraenae and killed off the SilverDragon because they knew he was a Telepath.

About Orlok, I've been vacillating back and forth on him. First I townread him, then I scumread him, then I townread him, etc. I sort of suspect him for lying about Scanning me, but again, that could be a GM error. Of course, it would probably be easier to think about it if I didn't have a reputation of "finding Orlok when he's evil."

And then there's you. I'm really not sure what to think about you. I want to townread you based off of your Cycle 2 reaction, but then, you've been wrong about every single one of your kills, and you haven't attacked the people that you've said you were the most suspicious of.

Kill pairs:

Arraenae/#3. I suggest Arraenae.

PK/queensteph. I suggest queensteph.

[Paranoid King he/him]

Considering that there were 3 kills last night that isn't the case. We both claim to have killed Araris and both of those attacks seem to have been done by matter disrupters. That would mean a third player made the Reckoner kill and since you don't have to be a matter disrupter to make that kill it could be anyone. 

Oh. True. I usually don't pay much attention to how the kills happen, just that they do. In that case, Clanky.

I'm interested in why Hellscythe is participating in PM's, but hasn't posted in the thread once.

edit: that's right. Hellscythe went on a trip. In that case, Mailliw.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Paranoid King

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Read through most of today. Back from my trip and going to be posting more often.

 

I'm going to have to side with PK on this one Clanky.

 

Oh. True. I usually don't pay much attention to how the kills happen, just that they do. In that case, Clanky.

I'm interested in why Hellscythe is participating in PM's, but hasn't posted in the thread once.

He did. 

 

I think I'm leaning toward Adavantos or Clanky being the one who made an evil kill. I haven't decided yet who I think is more suspicious though.

[Hellscythe he/him]

We must have a different definition of "once" PK.

 

Also now that I think about Phattemer's "tertiary condition" having 3 kill roles on the innocent team makes a lot more sense.

I'm retracting my vote on Clanky.

 

 

Mailliw seems to be really tenacious...

 

Was Araris's death an inactive kill or matter disruption kill?

How did Arraenae know that the Reckoner kill was on Elbereth before any of the MD's had posted?

Edited January 19, 2016 by Hellscythe

[queensteph she/her]

If I was a reckoner why the heck would I out myself when Ripple was already asked whether he was followed or not? I chose to back up PK because I had the info on hand to do so. Plus, it seemed like a good idea since I was the only one who had real confirmation that PK was telling the truth.

I'll try to post again later, but for now I have school.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay. I need to apologize for my lack of posting so far. I have had limited access to a laptop, so I've not been able to try and put things together like I usually do because it's hard to do much research on mobile. I'm going through everything right now, and will try to post my thoughts/analysis on every player(or as many as I can while I'm using a laptop, since I'm not sure how much longer I have right now) once I finish.

 

@Steph, Since you don't want to explain your reasons for your suspicion against me, I can't really respond. So I guess I'll just respond by saying that I can't respond. Now respond is sounding weird in my head.  I would appreciate you removing both of your votes against me though, if you aren't going to reveal why you are suspicious of me right now. I don't like being so close to the lynch because of something that I can't defend against.

 

Dang. There's a hidden role? That's awesome. (I may just make one of those if I ever GM.  )

[queensteph she/her]

Lopen, I voted on you based on your power, but I didn't say so then because I hadn't revealed that I had invisibility/ plus I didn't want to say what your power was so I couldn't really explain. I took my vote off because I don't have any real proof that you're a reckoner and if you're good, I don't want to lose you.

[Arraenae]

 

How did Arraenae know that the Reckoner kill was on Elbereth before any of the MD's had posted?

 

The kill on Araris had the signature chalk dust and explosion. I was confused because two people were mentioned.

 

@Kipper I don't have time to respond to your post, but I wanted to know about Telepath #1 because I had a free PM at the time and wanted to establish a direct link, but I also didn't want to contact a Reckoner Telepath.

[Amanuensis he/him]

(0) Lopen: Steph (1),

(2) Mailliw: BB (1), Kipper (1), PK (4), 

(1) BB: Ripple (1), 

(0) Clanky: PK (1), PK (3), Hell (1),

(0) Ripple: Ada (1), PK (2), 

(1) Ada: Clanky (1), 

(0) Kipper: Ada (2),

(3) Rae: Kipper (2), Hell (2), Adavantos (3),

 

If I don't ensure someone receives at least three votes, I suspect the Reckoner!Illusionist is going to try and get me killed with one of the players with Magnified Persuasion again. I can't vote for Mailliw because if they take PK's vote and move it to me it'd leave only 2 votes on him and 3 on me. Unfortunately I have no choice but to vote for Arraenae; that way if the Reckoners attempt this again and decide not to attack me, I'll at least have a 50% chance of survival. That being said, I doubt I'll make it past this round. So if this is the last message for me to send, I just want to apologize to everyone for not getting a Reckoner already. I really was trying to kill them for you guys, but once again I let my kindness get the best of me and backed off the people who I really think did deserve to be my targets, hoping that my minor suspicions who seemed to be laying low would be the real threats. Here's to hoping my target tonight is at least right. Guess I'll see you all in the after life.

 

I wanted to post this right before turnover to keep the Reckoners from reacting, but I'm exhausted and really need to go to bed.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Adavantos

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Given Ada's allusion that he is targeting one of his larger suspicions tonight, of which I am one, I'd ask that if, as is entirely possible, I die tonight, that players do consider strongly the chance that at least one of the players with magnified persuasion is evil - although I'm no longer quite so sure on it being Ada, or to consider the parallel possibility that with so many kill roles flying around, the eliminator team is likely to be quite small, and no doubt will have a not insignificant degree of protection - I will admit to have scanned a lurcher on cycle 1, and am now leaning towards making their name public - so if I don't survive, I'd still encourage the debate on publicising lurcher identities to be held next cycle. Whilst I am suspicious of both Ada and Clanky, I think it more important that we discover the result of the player we actually decide to lynch this cycle - I'm going to add my vote to Arraenae, hoping to solidify the lynch against manipulation.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Player analysis:

 

Adavantos: His alignment is really very important. I had some suspicion against him for some things he said that seemingly contradicted things he'd said earlier in the game, but an Illusionist trying to get him killed makes me lean towards him being an Epic. I suppose it's possible that the Illusionist thought that Ada was evil, and so took the chance to kill him, but that seems like a very risky thing to do as an Epic, because what if you're wrong? I can't really go into detail on his posts, simply because there's so many, and I don't have time for that. Has claimed to have attacked Orlok C1, Kynedath C2, and Araris C3. There has been white chalk involved in all of those cases, so I believe it's most likely he's a Matter Disruptor. If he is evil, and not a Matter Disruptor, that would mean a teammate of his is a MD, but that doesn't make sense for him to lie about his role even if he is evil, so i believe that regardless of his alignment, he is a MD. At the moment, I'm leaning towards Epic.

Mailliw: Was the 4th vote on Anamaximder I believe. Voted for Adavantos and BB with no little explanation(stated that he was busy and only had time to drop a vote where he was starting to get suspicious of someone). Has said that he should be more active from now on. Also thinks that either Ada or Clanky are Reckoners(to get technical, he said he thinks one of them made an "evil kill," but that's beside the point.  ) Not really enough for me to go either way on him. Could be he's a Reckoner, but it seems to me that he would be more involved and put more into the game if he was an eliminator. Neutral.

Kynedath: Ada claimed to have killed him on C2(white chalk was involved). If Ada is evil, something in Kynedaths posts may have been the cause of Ada choosing him. It may be that Ada was trying to lay false trails by killing him though, so I would be hesitant to follow leads based off of something like that. This kill was one of the reasons I was suspicious of Ada. I felt like Kynedath could be a good help for the village if left alive, and I thought he did a good job proving himself in MR10, so I was surprised that Ada killed him. Kynedath was against the lynch on Anamaximder, He stated that out of those who voted for him, Orlok was the least likely to be a Reckoner, and Mail and Hellscythe the most likely. Voted on Hellscythe right before he died.

PK: I had some initial suspicion against PK on the first Cycle, because of his wording when he voted for Orlok. He said "I'm gonna put my vote where it counts." which is exactly what he said when he was an eliminator in MR10 when he got Sart lynched on C1. However, this situation was very different, because Anamaximder was an Epic. There was no need to insure a lynch on a villager in this case(opposite to the case in MR10, when there was two villagers up for the lynch and PK broke the tie with his vote), so I don't see it as necessarily meaning he is an eliminator. Actually, going back through his posts, he's voted for every player involved in the Anamaximder lynch(Orlok, BB, Hellscythe and Mailliw). Other players he's voted on: Ripple and Clanky. As far as a read goes, I think I'd lean towards "maybe Epic". He's been fairly active, and his posts seem genuine to me. Claims invisibility. Scanned: Kynedath as killing someone C1(if Ada turns out to be a Reckoner, I would very much look at PK because of this scan.), Ripple as doing nothing on C2 and Clanky as killing someone on C3. Those claims seem to have been verified, so i'm fairly sure that PK is what he says he is. 

Hellscythe: Was a part of Anamaximders lynch. 3rd vote I believe. Had about a 3 day gap where he never posted in the thread, but I don't remember him being up for death by inactivity, which means he was active during that time.

 

Sorry guys, but my time is up. I'll try to get back on as soon as I can and finish this up.

[phattemer]

There won't be any finishing up this cycle, because it is officially over!

The write-up for Cycle 5 may be delayed due to my not being on to collect actions before rollover, so if need be the write-up will be edited in.

[Clanky he/him]

So apparently there is some sort of secret gifter role. They seem to be the reason for Maills continuing lynch survival. Why would an Epic protect someone from the lynch like that?

 

I figured that I would explain my kill target for tonight ahead of time in case I can't do it next cycle for some reason. 

[Mystique Kamyle]

Sorry for the late (And short,) post, but I'm short on time. I haven't posted much, but I have been looking through the posts, and while I had 3 in mind, namely Arranae, Mailliw, and Clanky, I decided to go with Clanky.

[phattemer]

I'll accept that last vote given that it was posted at 5:59 PM according to 17thshard.

[Mystique Kamyle]

Thanks.

[phattemer]

Cycle Five: 

I. Third Time's the Charm!

II. There's Always Another Secret

Perseus walked tiredly through the halls. The fifth day of the purge, and his subjects still hadn't been able to find a single Reckoner. Hopefully that would change today, but to be realistic, it probably wouldn't. It seemed like the only way to find the Reckoners would be to let them kill all the Epics, and then take them out himself. It wasn't like they had any idea what his weakness was. After all, it wasn't that common. And with all the telepaths around, it wasn't safe even to think about private things. Finally reaching the courthouse, he blasted open the doors with a wave and rode the vapor in the air up to his throne. What could he say? He was in the mood to remind his Epics who exactly they were dealing with. He reached the seat, and levitated it as well, settling down to hear the latest opinions. Perseus did not feel like listening, so he decided to appoint a lieutenant to record the votes. "You! Mike Durbin! Write down what they say and wake me up when you're finished."

"Certainly, Lord Perseus." Mike looked eager to please. He obviously would have some ulterior motive, but at this point, Perseus couldn't be bothered to care. He pretended to start snoring. "Ah, my Lord? The people have spoken- Renee is the one they have picked." Immediately there came complaints and shouts from the cloud, claiming that she wasn't who they wanted to kill.

"It actually didn't tie? Congratulations, Mike. You have been promoted for not annoying me."

"Thank you, Lord Perseus. It is most appreciated." With a flick of his wrist, Perseus encased Renee in ice except for her head.

"Have anything to say in your defense?" She looked resigned to her fate.

"Well, there is one last thing I'd like to say to Mr. Durbin there, but it's a bit private, and I'd like to whisper it to him." A sudden magnanimous impulse struck Perseus.

"You know, I've always liked you, Renee. Mike, go listen." As he bent down to hear the whisper, silence reigned in the court. Perseus liked her, but she would still die? That meant it could happen to anyone else. Even any of them. Perseus grew impatient. What was taking so long? He nudged Mike Durbin with a small tendril of water. He fell over, and a gun he'd been carrying went off. The Epics began to discuss the latest development. Mundanes would have screamed, but these people were well-versed in death. Perseus looked back to Renee. "So how did you kill him? Another power?" She smirked back at him.

"Even an Epic can die, Perseus. Even you." She had to be a Reckoner. He, instead of calling for the guards, simply drowned her in full view of everyone.

"Even a Reckoner can die, Renee. Especially a Reckoner." Turning away from the woman he would have called friend, he tried to find the victim of the gunshot. Strange... there wasn't any blood. Only a fine dusting of chalk all over Avi Exseus' throat. It looked like he had died almost instantly. Floating over to the body, Perseus examined it from above. No tech inside his shirt, none anywhere on his body. He must have been innocent- as much as any Epic could be considered innocent. Maren Noles started sniggering.

"Hehehehe... this is the most fun thing I've done since I rose! Coming down here to cause chaos is SO much fun. And I do mean fun. Honestly, the way you people kill each other over the slightest points..."

Someone in the crowd began to concentrate. What they were about to do would require the largest amount of antimatter they'd ever attempted to create. And all in the name of getting rid of the person who had possibly granted the power in the first place...

Maren stopped smiling. "Who is using a power here? ANSWER ME!!!" she snarled. From somewhere in the crowd came a voice.

"I'm sorry, Calamity, but I am loyal to one person and one person only: Perseus. Bye now."

A gargantuan explosion rocked the room. Most of the Epics could protect themselves in some way, and one considerate fellow had placed a forcefield that helped direct the blast upward. Most of the roof was gone, and with it had flown Calamity.


Arraenae was lynched! They were a Reckoner with tech that gave them the powers of Matter Disruption, Invisibility, Enhanced Relationships, and Telepathy!
Hellscythe was killed! They were an Epic with the powers of Illusions, Invisibility, and Telepathy!
Adavantos was killed! They were a Serial Killer, with the power to kill and survive one death!
Mailliw was "killed"! They were Calamity, with the powers to grant a player one random power, survive one death, and Accelerated Healing!

Vote Tally:
Arraenae: 3; Adavantos, Paranoid King, OrlokTsubodai
Mailliw: 2; Bridge Boy
Clanky: 2; Hellscythe, Kamyle
Bridge Boy: 1; RippleGylf
Adavantos: 2; queensteph

Kipper was annoyed!
Mailliw was saved from boredom! (But not from death. )

Edited November 3, 2016 by Alvron

[RippleGylf she/her]

O.O How did someone kill Calamity?

[Clanky he/him]

O.O How did someone kill Calamity?

I'm awesome like that 

 

Also if all the Reckoners have that many powers then I expect that they have a pretty small team. I find it quite odd that Arraenea didn't really seem to have used her kill at all.

 

Also I would like to point out that my theory about Ada based on the write-up wasn't actually wrong! His kills really never seemed like matter disruption to me and it turns out that they weren't.

[phattemer]

O.O How did someone kill Calamity?

The write-up will clarify that.

 

 

Also I would like to point out that my theory about Ada based on the write-up wasn't actually wrong! His kills really never seemed like matter disruption to me and it turns out that they weren't.

To be honest, that was supposed to be pretty obvious.