Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[little wilson she/her]

I was thinking more along the lines of people who don't have the most important roles or who are roleless could reveal this to the HI. Then if a forger needed a target to forge a new Hemalurgist or something like that then they could ask the HI for a target. This would only work while we are sure that Araris is still on our side but It could stop forgers from forging over Hemalurgists or Elantrians. The more I think about it the more I find this actually to be not a very good plan. I am just worried about losing important roles to forgers or forgers being too wary of this which allows the traitors forger(if they have one) to give all the good roles to fellow traitors.

 

Yeah, that would basically be telling the HI who does have an important role, because they would be all the people who haven't contacted the HI (minus the inactives).

 

Speaking of which, how many eliminators do we assume we have? I know it's usually 1-2 in normal (real life) Mafia, but normal Mafia also doesn't have 30 people.

 

Typically between 20-25% of the total players. Depending on the makeup of the team, it could be less than that, but not under 15%. They're usually closer to 20%.

 

Don't be too sure that the eliminators don't have a Kandra.  With the forgers it would be the same as giving them a roleless player, something that's easily overcome.  Plus this is Wyrm we are talking about.  He did leave out the Squad Leaders role in MR4 just to mess with us.

 

True. But giving them a Hemalurgist is also a pointless role since only the loyal Hemalurgists matter in terms of HI subversion. I could absolutely see them having a Hemalurgist. But a Hemalurgist and a kandra? That's a little less, even with a Forger. There are probably multiple Forgers so there's nothing saying that the eliminator Forger (assuming there is an eliminator Forger, though I think there likely is) would be successful with his forges. And if he's not, that's giving the eliminators two useless roles right at the start. Doesn't really seem particularly balanced.

[Clanky he/him]

Yeah, that would basically be telling the HI who does have an important role, because they would be all the people who haven't contacted the HI (minus the inactives).

 

I realized that which was one of the reasons I realized it was a poor idea. 

 

Yes, thank you for clarifying Clanky. Love u

No problem I'm here to help! Unless you are a traitor, then I am here to kill you.

[queensteph she/her]

@clanky Even if I was a traitor "Love thine enemies..." 

[Guest]

I feel like it would be a very cruel joke to give the Eliminators a Hemalurgist, simply because the HI is much more useful than a Hemalurgist to them. They would eventually have to make a choice, like "Okay, do we voluntarily lynch this guy to get the HI, or do we deal with a confirmed safe role?"

[Mailliw73 he/him]

No, if all the loyal hemalurgists die, the HI turns. Evil Hemalurgists don't matter.

[little wilson she/her]

I feel like it would be a very cruel joke to give the Eliminators a Hemalurgist, simply because the HI is much more useful than a Hemalurgist to them. They would eventually have to make a choice, like "Okay, do we voluntarily lynch this guy to get the HI, or do we deal with a confirmed safe role?"

 

• Hemalurgic Intelligence - At the beginning of the game, after Roles have been distributed, a player at random will be killed off and made into the HI. The HI is a publicly known Role, and starts off as a loyal crew member. Hemalurgically bound to the computer systems aboard the ship, the HI is in full control of the ship's functions. But while the HI is mechanical, it still possesses a human's psyche, and cannot devote its mind totally to any one task. Each Night, it may watch a player as they carry out their shift, and discover that player’s Role. Without a physical presence, the HI cannot be killed, targeted or affected by Roles, and its vote cannot be used to overpower the Captain. When all the loyal Hemalurgists on the station are dead, the AI is subverted to the side of the Traitors and will join their doc. The crew will not be informed of this.

Emphasis mine.

 

They would not have to sacrifice their Hemalurgist since they are traitors. Their Hemalurgist would not count among the loyal Hemalurgist numbers.

[STINK he/him]

I thought it's only when Loyal hemalurgists are dead that the HI would be subverted, so they wouldn't have to worry about lynching any teammates. Or is this something else? 

[Clanky he/him]

But it's only Loyal hemalurgists that keep the HI in line. Any traitorous hemalurgists wouldn't stop the HI from changing sides.

 

EDIT: There  are  ninja's  everywhere!!!

Edited October 31, 2015 by Clanky

[Elithanathile he/him]

The crux of my second plan was that if there is one eliminator, and two loyalists in the 3 PMs, if the person that is scanned is a loyalist, then nothing happens, except one less person under suspicion, and that info could be spread to the rest of the thread as well. If it's an eliminator though, the eliminators will know, okay so this guy will probably be targeted, but we don't know by whom, or what they will do. If it's the Lynch that's against them, they can defend against that. But if it's individual actions, they don't know what's coming.

[queensteph she/her]

I feel like it would be a very cruel joke to give the Eliminators a Hemalurgist, simply because the HI is much more useful than a Hemalurgist to them. They would eventually have to make a choice, like "Okay, do we voluntarily lynch this guy to get the HI, or do we deal with a confirmed safe role?"

It would be funny if their Hemalrgist did have to die in order for the HI to turn, I literally laughed out loud, but then everyone's posts reminded me that the death of a traitorous Hemalurgist didn't have to take place. But it's still a funny thought.

[little wilson she/her]

If it's an eliminator though, the eliminators will know, okay so this guy will probably be targeted, but we don't know by whom, or what they will do. If it's the Lynch that's against them, they can defend against that. But if it's individual actions, they don't know what's coming.

 

But why would the eliminator teammates who haven't gained any heat stick their neck out to save their teammate who they know is taking heat? On the contrary, I'd think they'd use that opportunity to try to gain trust by helping us kill their teammate rather than save them. Look no further than Shallan in MR8 gunning to lynch Hero, her teammate, two cycles in a row. Or Feligon in QF10 who gained trust because he'd helped lynch one of his teammates. The eliminators will rarely do what you're predicting they will do.

[Elbereth she/her]

The crux of my second plan was that if there is one eliminator, and two loyalists in the 3 PMs, if the person that is scanned is a loyalist, then nothing happens, except one less person under suspicion, and that info could be spread to the rest of the thread as well. If it's an eliminator though, the eliminators will know, okay so this guy will probably be targeted, but we don't know by whom, or what they will do. If it's the Lynch that's against them, they can defend against that. But if it's individual actions, they don't know what's coming.

I'm still a bit confused. First, your plan requires that one of the pms be eliminators, when it is very possible that none of them will be. Also, the only way the rest of what I think you're saying could work would be if the HI could scan for Alignments, which he can't.

EDIT: Here's what I got from your plan (correct me if I'm wrong, which I probably am): The HI discovers a role. He PMs 3 people, telling them that role. One of those people is (I'm assuming, for the sake of stating your plan as I see it) an eliminator. If the person that the HI scanned was loyal, the eliminators might kill them, or possibly not, depending on the scanned's importance and how willing the eliminators are to cast suspicion on themselves (as well as the other people receiving PMs). I'm assuming the HI doesn't tell anyone he's PMing who else he is tellin the roles to. I'm not sure what we gain if the scanned is loyal, because we don't really know that he/she is.

If the scanned is an eliminator, we now know their role (though not that they're an eliminator). I'm also not certain how that helps us.

Sorry if I'm missing something, but right now I'm not sure what you're suggesting we do.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Elbereth (Limelleth)

[Arraenae]

"I think Bridge Boy's plan is a very shaky one," Rae said. "The HI can't discover if somebody is loyal or not, just their role, so what's the point of telling other people someone's role? I'm kind of suspicious of Bridge Boy now because of this plan. It seems like an attempt to contribute without giving meaningful information."

She thought for a little while and added, "I think all of the Hemalurgists should tell the HI what they are, so we can learn how many Hemalurgists we have out there."

 

What does ninjaing mean?

[Clanky he/him]

Ninjaing is when somebody posts right before you and it often affects what you would say in your post or says the exact same thing you did.

[Elithanathile he/him]

The HI scans their ability, not their affiliation? Darn. I guess I was confused by role. Well then, there's no purpose for my plan, and I apologize for missing that.

[Alvron]

Vote Tally:

Stink(0) : PK

Lopen(1) : PK

Elbereth(0) : Stink

Alvron(1) : Orlok, Queensteph

Elkanah(1) : Stink

Orlok(1) : Clanky

Badger(1) : Wilson

[Elkanah he/him]

Elbereth, you said plenty thanks

 

In fact, looking at Elbereths plan I think that it would be better to do that one as then no-one should have to worry about names being leaked or anything, but we can still see how close/far away the HI is to being subverted. It also allows Araris to actually do some stuff with his ability or maybe just plain deduction skills etc

 

I don't think Elkanah has posted?

 

No you're right Stink, I hadn't posted yet. I've been traveling and haven't had access to a computer. I'm pretty new to this kind of forum so I'm trying to take all this information in. So far we've had five pages of discussion, but what have we figured out?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

No you're right Stink, I hadn't posted yet. I've been traveling and haven't had access to a computer. I'm pretty new to this kind of forum so I'm trying to take all this information in. So far we've had five pages of discussion, but what have we figured out?

 

Let's see, I believe the general consensus is that the Hemalurgists should contact Araris in the Night cycle. Which I see no problem with and agree on. We also shouldn't just give out all of our information to him since it is a possibility that he will turn evil eventually.

 

Kipper said he doubts the Eliminators have a Mistborn. I am of the same opinion.

 

Wilson said she doubts the Eliminators have a Kandra. Alvron then says he wouldn't put it past Wyrm to give them one, and Wilson responds by saying she doubts they have a Hemalurgist and a Kandra since both of those role are pretty pointless for them. Wilson also said she believes the Eliminators to have a Forger. I agree about the Forger. Eliminators having a Hemalurgist and a Kandra? I don't think that would be the case, but in MR9 Wyrm did say something about being unpredictable. 

 

Those are a few of the topics that have been discussed in case you're not up to speed. There hasn't been much about the lynch so far. Practically nothing actually.

 

On the subject of roles, what do you all think the Eliminators would have?

 

My guesses:

 

1 Elantrian or Voidbringer(Protective role)

1 Feruchemist(vote changing ability)

1 BioChromancer(roleblock)

1 Forger(get new abilities)

1 Hemalurgist or Kandra(basically roleless for the Eliminators but could possibly be used for manipulation if scanned by HI)

If there are six then possibly a roleless or a Hemalurgist/Kandra.

 

 

I'm gonna put my vote on Wilson. There's just something about her.

[Kaid he/him]

I feel as though I should vote but I don't have strong enough suspicions for anybody yet. And I don't trust other peoples suspicions either because they could be a traitor trying to get everyone else to lynch a loyal crewman. 

 

I've gone over it all again and I honestly don't see anyone acting too traitorous. Ignorant maybe. Or just trying to add to a discussions. I don't know...

[STINK he/him]

Elkanah, thanks for weighing in

 

I won't bother to do any more poke votes now that actual votes seem to have taken place.

[Guest]

Did you--did you just--VOTE WILSON???? IN CYCLE ONE???

I would ask for more reasoning, but right now I'm just reeling at the sheer audacity and masochism it must have taken to red that text.

[The Honey Badger he/him]

@Wilson, With regard to my comment about D1 lynches, I was more trying to get that 'meta- discussion' out of the way. It always crops up, with people that think we should always have a lynch D1, and people that think we shouldn't. I wasn't trying to waste the villages time, I was trying to get the issue out of the way before it does end up wasting our time. I've always supported D1 lynches and this game is no different, I just need to read through and fin someone I suspect. 

 

In regard to my comment about an HI trust group, I realize that there are problems with that. But we do need a place to begin knowing who can trust who, and I think the HI can be useful for that. And while I said 'trust group' I didn't say coalition. I'd say in LG14 you were at the heart of a 'trust group' asking favors and information within a network. That reads like a trust group to me. 

[queensteph she/her]

So far no one has seemed too suspicious, and those that did seem to be earlier have cleared up my suspicions by their later posts. Also, I'm knew to this and don't really know what kind of abilities the Eliminators might have been given. Unless someone becomes super suspicious in these last few hours of D1, I highly doubt I'll put in a vote.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 Wilson 

[Guest]

The Captain (Wyrmhero)