Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[The Honey Badger he/him]

<kind of ninja'd by Kipper>

I think with the HI, that we shouldn't assume that he'll be evil. He'll probably turn evil near the end of the game, but as for now he's one of our biggest assets. He's the only person right now guaranteed to be good, (unless there are no hemalurgists altogether, but would wyrm really do that?) I think the Hemalurgists should contact the HI, then the HI can talk to some Kandra or use his abiliy himself, to make sure that they are both a) Hemalurgists and b)Loyal. And construct a trusted list from that. 

 

With regard to Araris's old role, yeah it's sad that we lost a Voidbringer, but at least he wasn't a Kandra or an Elantrian that got killed. 

 

I hate to bring this up but I think we do need to discuss D1 lynches, I think that we should have one for the discussion, but we have already had plenty of discussion about the HI, I think we should have one to turn the conversation to more than just the HI and what to do about it. 

Edited October 31, 2015 by The Honey Badger

[Clanky he/him]

I agree that Araris should be trusted and I;m not really sure why there was ever an argument about it. He is on our team. That should have been the end of discussion. He isn't like Survival in LG14. He can't just pick and choose sides. I am leaning more towards telling him everything. If he can direct the forgers then we don't have to worry about them forging any important roles away. Also the more he knows the more likely we can win without ARaris ever turning in the first place.

 

@Badger, We don't really need to discuss day 1 lynches. It has been discussed time and time again. I much prefer to discuss who we should be lynching day 1. I will start with Orlok. He started the whole "Don't trust the HI" bit and then just left to let others continue his argument.

 

EDIT: 

 

 

And nobody has contacted me yet, which is perfectly fine with me. I think it would be rather interested to all of a sudden switch teams rather than be able to anticipate it and have to strategize something.

 

@Araris, nobody can contact you yet since PMs are only allowed at night.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Clanky

[Kaid he/him]

Hello shipmates, I apologize that I have been inactive up until this point. Unfortunately, real life did get in the way a bit yesterday. 

 

If I remember correctly, there is a Mistborn aboard, is there not? And the traitors are most likely going to kill off someone tonight if they can. While I hate the blind nature of the D1 lynch, I do think we should try to be proactive about ridding the ship of this plague of traitors. Harmony knows they will be proactive about removing us. Who even knows if the Mistborn is loyal, the traitors could kill off two of us tonight with that kind of power.

 

On that note, I'm not sure who to nominate, as people may be acting somewhat erratically due to the surprising violence and death we had all just experienced. I do want to point out that it should not matter if the HI knows who the Hemalurgists are. He should be committed to the loyal win condition, thus hunting the traitors, until he is informed that all of the loyal Hemalurgists are dead.

 

On another note, can the forger forge a new voidbringer now? Because technically, the original voidbringer did not die before becoming the HI. Seems like a very useful power for someone to have, especially in a long game. If we could get a loyal voidbringer, that would greatly help our cause.

 

Also, we need to start narrowing down the list of possible suspects. If the Elantrian can know who to protect (and is loyal), then they can protect our greatest assets in this endeavor. For now, I do not know who I can trust, but I also do not know who not to trust, so it is hard to make a vote. I shall consider it further, before the day is done.

[Guest]

I am leaning more towards telling him everything. If he can direct the forgers then we don't have to worry about them forging any important roles away. Also the more he knows the more likely we can win without ARaris ever turning in the first place.

Well. I wouldn't go that far. If by some twist of fate, all the Hemalurgists die early, and evil!Araris knows everything, we would be royally screwed.

 

@Badger, We don't really need to discuss day 1 lynches. It has been discussed time and time again. I much prefer to discuss who we should be lynching day 1...

THANK you. Finally, someone who says what I want to say before I say it!

...If I remember correctly, there is a Mistborn aboard, is there not? And the traitors are most likely going to kill off someone tonight if they can. While I hate the blind nature of the D1 lynch, I do think we should try to be proactive about ridding the ship of this plague of traitors. Harmony knows they will be proactive about removing us. Who even knows if the Mistborn is loyal, the traitors could kill off two of us tonight with that kind of power...

I seriously doubt that the Eliminators got a Mistborn; that would be a little OP.

[Kaid he/him]

@Kipper Yeah thats what I was thinking, I just wasn't sure if any roles were confirmed loyal or traitor. I assume the Mistborn is loyal, but it never hurts to err on the side of caution.

[little wilson she/her]

I hate to bring this up but I think we do need to discuss D1 lynches, I think that we should have one for the discussion, but we have already had plenty of discussion about the HI, I think we should have one to turn the conversation to more than just the HI and what to do about it. 

 

Talking about D1 lynches doesn't actually help in the same way that talking about the HI does. Do we need to discuss more than just the HI? Yes. Absolutely. But discussion about D1 lynches only nets this information: "This person supports D1 lynches. This other person doesn't." That's not information you can use later in the game. It's only about D1. It's a discussion perfect for eliminators to hide behind because they can pretend to be discussing when in fact they're not. It's all guise that doesn't give away information so it's pointless for the village to discuss. Similar to how it was pointless in QF10 to have a discussion about the merits or problems with the Contribution Crusade on D1. Discussing meta issues isn't something that can net useful information, and it's meaningful, useful information that's crucial to the village. And that comes from actual lynch discussion. As in, actually voting for people and threatening with the lynch.

 

With that in mind, I'm going to put a vote on Badger. My reasons for this are one, he's trying to encourage discussion on a meta issue that will net zero meaningful information. Two, he's trying to encourage the establishment of a trust group (which I'm hesitant about due to disliking groups where everyone can trust each other implicitly, since that tends to end with dictatorships and those in charge commanding others to do as they say because "we know we're good and we don't know about you" and that's just no fun) with a potential alignment-flipper at it's core (and if the loyal Hemalurgists all die and Araris goes evil, that will put all of that information into the eliminators' hands. Not exactly the best strategy). Not only this, he's also encouraging for our alignment scanners to waste their abilities scanning people who are glorified villagers. The Hemalurgists have no purpose except to keep the HI from being subverted. They have no actions or anything else. They cannot do anything. The kandra would be far better off scanning others and figuring out who to trust among villagers who have actions.

 

Now, does this mean we forget about the traitor Hemalurgists? No. I think that if the HI is sometime in contact with someone he knows isn't a traitor, he needs to give that person the list of people who claimed Hemalurgists. If it gets to the point where nearly all of those on the list are dead, that's when a kandra should scan the last remaining Hemalurgist(s). And if no traitor Hemalurgists contacted the HI, then they'll potentially be scanned anyway.

 

Yes, this is supposing that the trusted person who has the list of Hemalurgists is in contact with a kandra. I know. But I rather doubt the traitors will have a kandra. They have no use for one. They already know the alignments of everyone in the game so an alignment-checking role is virtually pointless. Therefore, kandra can be trusted. This is not saying kandra should out themselves as kandra and seek protection. Follow the Cop strategies are boring and I do not support them.

 

Now, to directly comment on the HI discussion. We should not be giving all information to Araris. Yes, we can trust him right now. He'll be working for his win con, which, at this current moment in time, aligns with the village. But we have to assume that he will eventually be subverted. This doesn't mean that we simply don't trust him. No. It just means we do not use him as a hub of information, nor do we give critical information to him. That would be folly. This is where Alv's plan is actually perfect. The Hemalurgists' only purpose pertains to the HI. The HI knowing the Hemalurgists' identities, then, makes sense. It's not critical information the HI shouldn't have. It's information that should be contained, yes, since we don't want that information getting out, but if the HI is subverted, all those people are already dead so he doesn't have information to give that will help the eliminators. This isn't the case if we use him as a hub. If he gets subverted when he has all the information, you can bet that the village will lose.

 

Because of this, I agree with Clanky that Orlok looks a little suspicious. I'm also still watching Stink and, for the same reason as Stink, Bridge Boy. Both of them seem to be speaking but not really saying anything.

[Clanky he/him]

Well. I wouldn't go that far. If by some twist of fate, all the Hemalurgists die early, and evil!Araris knows everything, we would be royally screwed.

 

THANK you. Finally, someone who says what I want to say before I say it!

I seriously doubt that the Eliminators got a Mistborn; that would be a little OP.

That is a possibility. Perhaps if we wait to see how many hemalurgists contact Araris first. If there are only one or 2 then yes we should worry about that but if we have 3 then I think we can take that risk as we will have time to forge new ones before they all die.

 

I agree that the eliminators won't have a Mistborn but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if they had a Forger. This would potentially allow them to have one in the future. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm very sorry for not being active today - It's my 18th Birthday, and I haven't had an opportunity to get online. I have a flight home tomorrow, but will read through the thread as soon as I have returned.

[Kaid he/him]

@Clanky, I think the issue at hand is more that we don't know how many of those contacting him will be good and how many bad. So to know the exact number would be difficult. 

 

Edited: And happy Halloween and Birthday Orlok!

Edited October 31, 2015 by Kaid

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

So under the assumption that our HI stays loyal, the Loyal Hemalurgists will either die or be forged into a new role by the time he turns evil in which case telling the HI that they are Loyal Hemalurgists doesn't matter because they will not be Loyal Hemalurgists anyways (which is what they claimed).

 

So if they die obviously it doesn't matter.

If they are forged obviously it doesn't matter because you claimed Loyal Hemalurgist anyway. He just knows you're whatever was Forged which I suppose could be a backdraw but by the time he turns evil I'm assuming(It's based on how many Loyal Hemalurgists there are which is ????) there will be too many roles to pick from.

Is what is forged that night announced in the write-up or is it all secret?

 

Also have a Happy and Spooky Birthday Orlok!

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Is what is forged that night announced in the write-up or is it all secret?

 

The Roles available are known only to Forgers at the start of the Night. The results of Forging are hidden, except to the person being Forged and the Forger who attempted the Forging.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Elbereth she/her]

I'm not going to do a vote on the first day, as we don't have enough suspicions, and I don't really think that we need to do a poke vote, so I'll be pretty quiet. Just popping in to say that I agree with testing the HI as innocent until turned guilty. Doesn't mean we should leak secrets to him because he's there, but we have a useful resource here, and its just a waste if all we do with it is mistrust it. What we might want to do is have the HI either submit the results of his scans in the thread, as the eliminators already know who is good and who is bad, but then they know who we are targeting if the HI scans an eliminator. Option 2, the HI waits a cycle or two, and chooses up to three people that are mostly active and he thinks he can trust, and PM's his results to them. There'll probably be an eliminator in there, but with 3 people, there will be at least 1 loyal centenary, who can then use any actions they might have against those people, while the eliminators can't really do anything about it. They will know he will probably be targeted, but not by what, as it won't be a lynch unless a peak crewmember shares the information in the thread.

  

Can you explain your two options a little more clearly? I'm not sure I understand them. What I got:

Option 1: HI says each day who he scanned and what their role is. What is the point of this, except to let everyone (including the eliminators) what each person's role is in turn? Is there another part of this that I'm not understanding?

Option 2: After a few cycles so that he can build up an idea of who he might be able to trust (somehow), the HI PMs three people what roles he has discovered in his scanning. If those people he has scanned start dying, then one of the people that was PM'd is an eliminator. If there is no noticeable change, then those people probably aren't eliminators, which is good to know, I guess? Except at least one of them could be an eliminator regardless, and I'n not sure what the point is.

I agree that Araris should be trusted and I;m not really sure why there was ever an argument about it. He is on our team. That should have been the end of discussion. He isn't like Survival in LG14. He can't just pick and choose sides. I am leaning more towards telling him everything. If he can direct the forgers then we don't have to worry about them forging any important roles away. Also the more he knows the more likely we can win without ARaris ever turning in the first place.

[...]

  

But if we tell him who the Forgers are, he can direct them until he is subverted, upon which point he will know the identities of all the Forgers and whoever they have Forged. This does not seem ideal.

Well. I wouldn't go that far. If by some twist of fate, all the Hemalurgists die early, and evil!Araris knows everything, we would be royally screwed.

 THANK you. Finally, someone who says what I want to say before I say it!I seriously doubt that the Eliminators got a Mistborn; that would be a little OP.

 

OP?

 

@Kipper Yeah thats what I was thinking, I just wasn't sure if any roles were confirmed loyal or traitor. I assume the Mistborn is loyal, but it never hurts to err on the side of caution.

So what roles are probably not going to be given to the eliminators? Kandra have already been mentioned.

I would go through the roles myself, but I have to go back to hand copying a letter ten times, and I would probably miss something anyway.

[STINK he/him]

OP in the case above most likely means Over-Powered. As the Eliminators having 2 kills would be too strong. 

[Elbereth she/her]

Ah! Thank you! The only thing I could think of was Original Poster, which made no sense whatsoever.

[Clanky he/him]

  

But if we tell him who the Forgers are, he can direct them until he is subverted, upon which point he will know the identities of all the Forgers and whoever they have Forged. This does not seem ideal.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of people who don't have the most important roles or who are roleless could reveal this to the HI. Then if a forger needed a target to forge a new Hemalurgist or something like that then they could ask the HI for a target. This would only work while we are sure that Araris is still on our side but It could stop forgers from forging over Hemalurgists or Elantrians. The more I think about it the more I find this actually to be not a very good plan. I am just worried about losing important roles to forgers or forgers being too wary of this which allows the traitors forger(if they have one) to give all the good roles to fellow traitors.

[Elbereth she/her]

This makes more sense to me, but I still think it wouldn't work, because Araris would still know the identities of all of the Forgers, even if he doesn't know what they Forged their targets into. Also, if he knew what their targets were, he would have a list of people who almost certainly have a role, who he could start seeking once he turned.

[queensteph she/her]

Concerning my earlier stance on the HI, I would like to say that I wasn't being very open minded, and want to state the fact that after reading what all of you had to say on the matter that I do agree that we need to trust the HI seeing as how he is an ally, though I still think it would be best not to trust him wholeheartedly since he could eventually turn evil. Now that I understand more the position of the HI I would like to take my vote off of Alvron. (Happy Birthday, Orlok! and Happy Halloween to you all!)

[queensteph she/her]

I was thinking more along the lines of people who don't have the most important roles or who are roleless could reveal this to the HI. Then if a forger needed a target to forge a new Hemalurgist or something like that then they could ask the HI for a target. This would only work while we are sure that Araris is still on our side but It could stop forgers from forging over Hemalurgists or Elantrians. The more I think about it the more I find this actually to be not a very good plan. I am just worried about losing important roles to forgers or forgers being too wary of this which allows the traitors forger(if they have one) to give all the good roles to fellow traitors.

But then couldn't an eliminator talk to the HI and pretend to be a forger so as to find out who was weak or roleless?

[Clanky he/him]

Except the HI has the ability to check peoples roles. They can check that a players role which will make people less likely to try and lie about a role to them. Also I said that the plan was a bad one. I know that it will not work I was just saying what I had been thinking before realizing it won't work. 

 

Also Queensteph instead of posting twice in a row you can use the Edit button on the bottom of your first post.

[queensteph she/her]

@Clanky Oh riiiight, I keep forgetting that the HI can scan people, I'm dumb. I've read the roles like 3 times now so maybe that'll help. (and thanks for the tip I was wondering how to do that!) I guess I don't see anything wrong with the roleless/weaker people telling the HI who they are, since then he could let the Hemalurgists know and they could give them a better role and the HI wouldn't know what the new role was (right?).

 

Edit: Also I was wondering, Can you PM the GM anytime? Or is that only at night as well? Just checking.

Edited October 31, 2015 by queensteph

[Clanky he/him]

You can PM the GM at anytime. It doesn't count as a regular PM. 

 

Also it's the Forger not the Hemalurgists that change a players role.

[Alvron]

After thinking about it for a long time (only a few hours, and already my brain hurts), I think the plan works like this: Every Hemalurgist (and likely a few Eliminators) PM Araris that they are Hemalurgists. Araris does not share this with anyone, but he does share the number of Hemalurgists he has received (with the assumption that that number is slightly high, because of Eliminators). He keeps the numebr updated if any new ones are Forged. Unless this is very different from most (admittedly real-life) games I've played, we will know when Hemalurgists die, and be able to keep track of roughly when we should stop trusting Araris. Is that at all what you were thinking of, Alvron?

Allowing for both a traitor Hemalurgist and one loyal that won't contact Araris either for not wanting to reveal themselves or being inactive, the number Araris gives us should be about right.  But yes, that's similar to what I was thinking.

 

Yes, this is supposing that the trusted person who has the list of Hemalurgists is in contact with a kandra. I know. But I rather doubt the traitors will have a kandra. They have no use for one. They already know the alignments of everyone in the game so an alignment-checking role is virtually pointless. Therefore, kandra can be trusted. This is not saying kandra should out themselves as kandra and seek protection. Follow the Cop strategies are boring and I do not support them.

Don't be too sure that the eliminators don't have a Kandra.  With the forgers it would be the same as giving them a roleless player, something that's easily overcome.  Plus this is Wyrm we are talking about.  He did leave out the Squad Leaders role in MR4 just to mess with us.

 

@Clanky Oh riiiight, I keep forgetting that the HI can scan people, I'm dumb. I've read the roles like 3 times now so maybe that'll help. (and thanks for the tip I was wondering how to do that!) I guess I don't see anything wrong with the roleless/weaker people telling the HI who they are, since then he could let the Hemalurgists know and they could give them a better role and the HI wouldn't know what the new role was (right?).

 

Edit: Also I was wondering, Can you PM the GM anytime? Or is that only at night as well? Just checking.

If the HI was to arrange for the Hemalurgists to gain new roles then the HI would be closer to being turned.  We want more Hemalurgists, not less.

[Elbereth she/her]

Allowing for both a traitor Hemalurgist and one loyal that won't contact Araris either for not wanting to reveal themselves or being inactive, the number Araris gives us should be about right.  But yes, that's similar to what I was thinking.

 

I was thinking a few more than that, but yes. My margin of error would be 1-2 loyal reluctant Hemalurgists + however many traitors we think there might be, just in case thay all say they're Hemalurgists. Unlikely, given his ability to scan, but possible.

Speaking of which, how many eliminators do we assume we have? I know it's usually 1-2 in normal (real life) Mafia, but normal Mafia also doesn't have 30 people.

[Clanky he/him]

 

If the HI was to arrange for the Hemalurgists to gain new roles then the HI would be closer to being turned.  We want more Hemalurgists, not less.

I believe that was just a case of getting roles confused. I believe she meant this:

 guess I don't see anything wrong with the roleless/weaker people telling the HI who they are, since then he could let the Forgers know and they could give them a better role and the HI wouldn't know what the new role was (right?).

[queensteph she/her]

I believe that was just a case of getting roles confused. I believe she meant this:

 guess I don't see anything wrong with the roleless/weaker people telling the HI who they are, since then he could let the Forgers know and they could give them a better role and the HI wouldn't know what the new role was (right?).

Yes, thank you for clarifying Clanky. Love u