Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[queensteph she/her]

What's to stop an Eliminator, or really anyone for that matter, from telling him that they're a Hemalurgist? There's no way Araris can be certain of who he could trust. Which is why I'd say it would be safer for the Hemalurgists to not expose who they are.

[Alvron]

That's not the point. The point is that the HI will likely turn sometime this game, and as such, we should assume him evil. So having all the hemalurgists tell him their role would be like giving team evil free info.

Edit: to make my point clearer, assume that Araris' goal is to help team evil as much as possible, because he'll probably be there in the end anyway.

By that stage those Hemalurgists will be dead therefore Araris can't give team evil free info.

 

What's to stop an Eliminator, or really anyone for that matter, from telling him that they're a Hemalurgist? There's no way Araris can be certain of who he could trust. Which is why I'd say it would be safer for the Hemalurgists to not expose who they are.

And how will team evil get the info.  Araris doesn't know who they are and if they reveal themselves to Araris they run the risk of losing one of their own fairly early.

[Paranoid King he/him]

I don't quite see how your evidence backs up your point. People could lie, so it's better if nobody speaks? I agree with your assessment, though. If a HI has gone rogue, it's best for him not to know who to kill to share evil's win condition.

Edit @queensteph

Edited October 31, 2015 by Paranoid King

[queensteph she/her]

Honestly, Araris is going to be evil once all the Hemalurgists are eleminated, and if Araris got into contact with an eliminator and knew who all of the Hemalurgists were then they could eliminate them all and then the eliminators would have a new ally. Even if Araris wasn't in cahoots with an Eliminator, if the Eliminators happened to eliminate the Hemalurgists and Araris then joined the Eliminators side he would have ANY information he had gained from knowing and being allies with the Hemalurgists. We have to assume that he would be a backstabbing rat, no offence Araris. But my point is that we need to be careful and not just givie away our private information on a whim.

[Paranoid King he/him]

My main point is that people want to win. The HI starts on team good, and shares their win condition. It is in his interest to help team good. If, however, he knows who to kill to join team evil, there's nothing stopping him from figuring out who's evil and telling them who to kill.

If he doesn't know who to kill, we haven't lost anything. He'll feel obligated to stay on team good because of his win condition.

[Alvron]

My main point is that people want to win. The HI starts on team good, and shares their win condition. It is in his interest to help team good. If, however, he knows who to kill to join team evil, there's nothing stopping him from figuring out who's evil and telling them who to kill.

If he doesn't know who to kill, we haven't lost anything. He'll feel obligated to stay on team good because of his win condition.

Maybe I'm not explaining it clearly.  Let me try again.

 

Araris plays to win.  He will stab you in the back, lie to you and do any number of things if it means he wins.  However as long as he's on team good he stays loyal.  At least as far as I know.

The HI only changes sides once all loyal Hemalurgists are dead.  As long as we Forge new Hemalurgists before the rest are dead Araris will remain on team good whether he likes it or not.  Once new Hemalurgists are forged he won't know who they are so they will be safe from betrayal but if he is contacted by the original Hemalurgists then he (and we) will have some idea on how much leeway we have should a forgery fail. 

[queensteph she/her]

Maybe I'm not explaining it clearly. Let me try again.

Araris plays to win. He will stab you in the back, lie to you and do any number of things if it means he wins. However as long as he's on team good he stays loyal. At least as far as I know.

The HI only changes sides once all loyal Hemalurgists are dead. As long as we Forge new Hemalurgists before the rest are dead Araris will remain on team good whether he likes it or not. Once new Hemalurgists are forged he won't know who they are so they will be safe from betrayal but if he is contacted by the original Hemalurgists then he (and we) will have some idea on how much leeway we have should a forgery fail.

I get what you're saying now, but I have a question.. What does the good team gain by having the Hemalurgists expose themselves to Araris?

[Paranoid King he/him]

But what certainty do we have that he will continue playing according to that style now that you've called him out on it?

And what are our estimates on the number of roles? Because we can only keep that strategy up if we have active, good forgers. That strategy depends on good active forgers, and if we have none, (or they are all killed,) we've gambled our HI away.

[queensteph she/her]

@ParanoidKing Exactly, that's why I was saying earlier for the Hemalurgists not to expose themselves. Because none of us have any certainty as to who we can trust.

[Alvron]

Sorry for my previous post, I was trying to reply to it but I'm on mobile & don't know how to work it......OK so in reply to Alvron, I get what you're saying now, but I have a question.. What does the good team gain by having the Hemalurgists expose themselves to Araris?

I was hoping this whole discussion wasn't going to take place because I had hoped that the Eliminators would use the opportunity to contact Araris to try and fake claim being a Hemalurgist to gain the list of Hemalurgists as then we should find one as I was going to suggest to Araris that if any did, he scan them to see if they are lying about being one.

 

 

But what certainty do we have that he will continue playing according to that style now that you've called him out on it?

None.  It's a risk but I thought it was something to think about.

[Paranoid King he/him]

I was hoping this whole discussion wasn't going to take place because I had hoped that the Eliminators would use the opportunity to contact Araris to try and fake claim being a Hemalurgist to gain the list of Hemalurgists as then we should find one as I was going to suggest to Araris that if any did, he scan them to see if they are lying about being one.

Hmm. Well, sorry about that, then. If Araris is trustworthy, that would have given us some good info on how trustworthy other people are. And, regardless of their team, that's a good thing to find out.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Alvron, I understand where you are coming from, but I have to disagree. There are far too many risks than there are rewards (if there are any) involved in this scenario. ADD IN: Now that I understand your plan, that actually would be a clever way of drawing them out, but still too risky. However, at the same time, I do not agree with the points Orlok, PK and Steph have made.

 

You three are talking about Araris as if it is a guarantee he will turn evil, whether he does it intentionally or not. If I was in his position and came online to read all of this I would be insulted and would consider turning on the village just in spite. That puts into question of whether or not one of you are a very clever eliminator trying to manipulate him into doing just that by expressing your distrust of him out in the open so vehemently.

 

I don’t think that’s the case, but I’m frequently paranoid at the start of these games, and that little conspiracy theory couldn’t help but pop up in my head.

 

I think you guys are failing to realize that while the HI is one of our biggest potential threats, he is also one of our most valuable assets. Not only can is his vote the only one that can’t be altered by a Feruchemist, but he can also discover a single player’s role every night without fear of being blocked or assassinated. Depending on how Wyrm distributed the roles, this could be essential in us catching the traitors or discovering valuable roles for us to protect.

 

Hypothetical Scenario: N1, HI scans a player, is told they are a Forger. Traitors kill a Loyal Forger the same night. Day 2 Araris reveals his results, bringing into question what are the chances of there being multiple Forgers on the side of good. A discussion then ensues, which depending on the village’s opinion and the Forger’s defense, will either result in him/her being lynched, protected by an anonymous Elantrian, or left alone for further observation.

 

No matter the end result, the HI contributes to the progression of the game therefore preventing it from stagnating. While it may be unpopular because of the potential of Araris turning evil, I am going to invest my trust in him (at least until he says or does something that might actually suggest him turning) as he is the only player that we all know is good right now. I don’t know him as a player right now, I just know how I would play that role if I were him (which is to do everything in my power to ensure the majority wins, including preventing myself from being turned) so I will assume that he will be doing the same until I have reason to believe otherwise.

 

 

 

 

EDITED 'cause my thought wasn't finished

Edited October 31, 2015 by Adavantos

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I agree with Adavantos here, but if I had to pick between Alv and PK/Steph's sides, I'd go with Alv. We have to take Araris as confirmed good for now. Not that that means to throw all caution to the wind, but he's more confirmed than anyone until Kandra start finding people. 

 

Wilson, I don't know what to tell you except that you tend to be pretty consistent about feeling bad about me when I'm actually good. And I really have no clue how only RP gave you that impression.

[Elbereth she/her]

Well I can't say that I didn't see this happening, the joke was too good to pass up.

I won't vote for Wilson, cause based on other games people will want the Wilson to talk anyway.

I'll vote for the person that no-one expects to see it going to, Elbereth! (they're new and a sibling, right? If not please tell me who is, thanks)

All you have to is talk, Elbereth.

Hi! I'm here!

And I'm not one with a sibling, sadly. I mean, I do have one, but she's not in the game.

Other than that... My understanding is that Araris will not cooperate with Eliminators until all (loyal) Hemalurgists are dead, and that includes conspiring to kill Hemalurgists. I don't think he evern could side with the Eliminators, unless they reveal themselves, which seems unlikely.

After thinking about it for a long time (only a few hours, and already my brain hurts), I think the plan works like this: Every Hemalurgist (and likely a few Eliminators) PM Araris that they are Hemalurgists. Araris does not share this with anyone, but he does share the number of Hemalurgists he has received (with the assumption that that number is slightly high, because of Eliminators). He keeps the numebr updated if any new ones are Forged. Unless this is very different from most (admittedly real-life) games I've played, we will know when Hemalurgists die, and be able to keep track of roughly when we should stop trusting Araris. Is that at all what you were thinking of, Alvron?

Edited slightly for clarification.

EDIT 2: Was that post all right? I don't know how much you want me to say. I could maybe say more of my thoughts if you want me to, but the above is the most relevant right now, I feel.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Elbereth (Limelleth)

[Paranoid King he/him]

You make a good point, Adavantos. I retract my previous suspicions that Araris would turn against us and now trust him as much as any other player. More, in fact, because he is confirmed good. I have full confidence that he will play fair and help his team win as much as he can.

[Amanuensis he/him]

You did just fine, El. That strategy actually works out just fine. The only risk would be if Araris (accidently or intentionally) leaked their names in thread or to a traitor. Unless.

 

Wyrm! I have a question. In the Hemalurgist description, it says "when all loyal Hemalurgists are dead or have had their abilities removed by Forgery, the HI will go rogue and join the Traitor team." That doesn't confirm or deny that one of the Traitors might begin as a Hemalurgist. In other words, are they, like the HI, confirmed good too, or is it possible one of them might be evil?

 

 

EDITED for justification, because it really drives me crazy.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Adavantos

[Creccio he/him]

You did just fine, El. That strategy actually works out just fine. The only risk would be if Araris (accidently or intentionally) leaked their names in thread or to a traitor. Unless.

 

Wyrm! I have a question. In the Hemalurgist description, it says "when all loyal Hemalurgists are dead or have had their abilities removed by Forgery, the HI will go rogue and join the Traitor team." That doesn't confirm or deny that one of the Traitors might begin as a Hemalurgist. In other words, are they, like the HI, confirmed good too, or is it possible one of them might be evil?

 

Well, it says WHEN they are gone.

 

One hemalurgist could start being a traitor or one traitor could get forged into a hemalurgist, so when all the LOYAL ones are dead, then the HI is going to go berzerk.

 

We dont know how many hemalurgist there are or if they are all good or bad. 

 

Thats how i read it

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Creccio: I just want to confirm, because up until now I had assumed they were all good, but after rereading that I realize it’s worded rather ambiguously which makes me think that not even Araris can trust a player just because they tell him he's a Hemalurgist and he scans them to see they weren't lying.

 

 

EDITED for justification, because it really drives me crazy.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Adavantos

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Wyrm, does the coroners report actually mean anything game-wise? Or is it a good bit of storytelling?

 

It is just a little bit of storytelling, nothing more than that.

 

Creccio: You may ask questions here or in a PM.

 

Araris: The HI probably communicates with the crew over the ship's radio, or smaller communications devices.

 

Adavantos: It is indeed possible for a Traitor to begin as a Hemalurgist, or for a Traitor to become a Hemalurgist at a later date.

 

With regards to Forgers - If two Forgers apply the same role to different players, I flip a coin to see which succeeds. If it's different roles to the same player, I also flip to see which goes first and gets overwritten.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[STINK he/him]

Elbereth, you said plenty thanks  

 

In fact, looking at Elbereths plan I think that it would be better to do that one as then no-one should have to worry about names being leaked or anything, but we can still see how close/far away the HI is to being subverted. It also allows Araris to actually do some stuff with his ability or maybe just plain deduction skills etc

 

I don't think Elkanah has posted?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Thanks for answering me, Wyrm.

 

@Araris, if someone messages you claiming they are a Hemalurgist and you scan them to confirm, do not assume they are on your side. If you ever get in contact with a kandra you could have him/her scan the Hemalurgist for your own piece of mind, but I wouldn't recommend it (Hemalurgists, apart from being a target of the traitors, are essentially a vanilla role, thus wasting a turn that the Kandra could use to find a more dangerous bad guy). So long as their identities are kept secret from the masses we are safe from them gaining another (extremely useful) member (aka you). In other words, if you ever find one of them, don't reveal it in thread or to anyone via PM in order to prevent it from getting leaked. Even if you tell someone who is confirmed good, they might let that information slip or blab to someone they trust, but isn't confirmed, and so on until it reaches one of their ears. I honestly think it's better to keep their names between you and the individuals (don't let them know who their Eskirole Brothers/Sisters are), but knowing their total numbers would be useful to the village as a safety measure, as aforementioned by Elbereth.

 

I want to bring up a second subject, but some work stuff came up so I won't be able to tack it on to this post. Will this up now and will post once I'm done.

[Elithanathile he/him]

I'm not going to do a vote on the first day, as we don't have enough suspicions, and I don't really think that we need to do a poke vote, so I'll be pretty quiet. Just popping in to say that I agree with testing the HI as innocent until turned guilty. Doesn't mean we should leak secrets to him because he's there, but we have a useful resource here, and its just a waste if all we do with it is mistrust it. What we might want to do is have the HI either submit the results of his scans in the thread, as the eliminators already know who is good and who is bad, but then they know who we are targeting if the HI scans an eliminator. Option 2, the HI waits a cycle or two, and chooses up to three people that are mostly active and he thinks he can trust, and PM's his results to them. There'll probably be an eliminator in there, but with 3 people, there will be at least 1 loyal centenary, who can then use any actions they might have against those people, while the eliminators can't really do anything about it. They will know he will probably be targeted, but not by what, as it won't be a lynch unless a peak crewmember shares the information in the thread.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Ok, so there has been a lot of discussion about me here. One thing that I would like to point out is that I am going to be loyal to my current win condition. Doing anything else would be against the spirit of the game and might upset how everything is balanced, although that second bit isn't really the point. So that means that 1) Right now I'm not going to look for eliminators to team up with and 2) I'm also not going to make any plans to sabotage myself if I do end up switching sides.

 

Also, the only times that I have really tried to be manipulative were in the Unbalanced Shard Game (In which I tried to get Pifferdoo lynched) and in the Really Long Game, in which I was a Kandra and one of my "teammates" was being really frustrating. So while I do play to win, unless there are special circumstances I tend to be a pretty honest player.

 

And nobody has contacted me yet, which is perfectly fine with me. I think it would be rather interested to all of a sudden switch teams rather than be able to anticipate it and have to strategize something.

[STINK he/him]

I think that's because PMs shouldn't be happening right now, and should only be made and typed in during the night. 

[Guest]

Just wanted to say that I really don't understand the opposition to Alvron's plan. There's either something I'm not understanding, or you all can just see something that Alvron is holding back.

 

If the Hemalurgists contact the HI, it can only be good for us. I seriously doubt that Araris (or anybody, really) would deliberately violate their win condition and stab their own team in the back. 

So, yes, perhaps an Eliminator will contact Araris. In this situation, what would compel Araris to give that person all of the names of the other Hemalurgists? Nothing, because why would the good Hemalurgists need to know the names of the other good Hemalurgists? So Araris is not compelled to give out names to claimed Hemalurgists, plus he knows how long he has before he gets killed, plus he can start to pull together a list of people whom he can trust. If he turns evil, all the Hemalurgists will be dead anyway, so I'm not sure how him turning evil could possibly affect the already dead Hemalurgists negatively. If he turns evil and is able to just rip us apart because of it, we have bigger problems than all of our Hemalurgists being dead. And, we might get an Eliminator to prematurely reveal themselves, if they actually contact Araris.

 

 

Also, queensteph, you just voted for Alvron within ten minutes, basically repeating Orlok's reasoning. I don't think it's enough to warrant a vote on you, because this is the first time I've seen you, but it did seem suspicious to me.