Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Peng the Just he/him]

Here's where you misunderstand me: His confidence itself didn't make me suspicious. The huge disparity between his evidence and his amount of confidence did.

 

Second, the post where you challenged Alvron's evidence of the rule against buying a med-kit for yourself.  In that post, Alvron had already provided a quote for it.

The reason I asked for a reference on that is because he just posted it as a generic quote, and it didn't show as specifically quoting ren. That can easily be recreated in BBCODE (see below example) and I wanted to be sure, because what he was saying was contrary to my understanding of the rules. I was thinking about buying a medkit for myself.

 

I can put anything I want here.

EDIT: including screenshot of what I'm talking about

See how the first quote shows as being from Gamma and the Second is just a generic quote? That's why I asked for a reference

Edited June 26, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[Aanwolf]

Here's where you misunderstand me: His confidence itself didn't make me suspicious. The huge disparity between his evidence and his amount of confidence did.

 

The reason I asked for a reference on that is because he just posted it as a generic quote, and it didn't show as specifically quoting ren. That can easily be recreated in BBCODE (see below example) and I wanted to be sure, because what he was saying was contrary to my understanding of the rules. I was thinking about buying a medkit for myself.

 

EDIT: forgot to type after quoting... 

 

But note my comment before.  The disparity between confidence and evidence was even greater in Dow's case.  I agree that Neo was overconfident, but Dow was way more overconfident than Neo, so why single Neo out?

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Aanwolf]

One final note: Burnt, I don't think your post is rock-solid evidence against you by any means.  It could have been a simple rules mistake, which should not be more likely for a CC to make than a villager.  The problem with Gamma's mistake was not a misunderstanding of the rules, but that it was a misunderstanding that proved he was lying about something else that a passenger would have no reason to lie about.  I wouldn't even have noticed your post if not for first noticing penguin's strange challenge of Alvron.  Also, even if there were not something specific to hide, just keeping the vote between two innocents is reason enough for penguin to start a bandwagon.

 

EDIT: Also note that for the reason stated in the last sentence, my argument does not hinge on whether or not penguin's challenge of Alvron was evidence of panic, so that argument alone is not enough to sway me, penguin.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Aanwolf]

I'm sorry, but I have to go for the remainder of the cycle due to prior commitments.  I trust that I have explained myself sufficiently clearly that anyone else could take it from here.  Also, if someone wouldn't mind using a med-kit on me, I would appreciate it.  I fear I have made myself a huge target.  As long as we stay logical, I believe we still have a chance of winning this.

[Peng the Just he/him]

But note my comment before.  The disparity between confidence and evidence was even greater in Dow's case.

No. No it wasn't. That's not a thing. Not even a little bit.

 

Keep in mind I had to place my preliminary vote BEFORE dow's evidence was brought up because I had to go to work and was only able to get back on because I happened to get off work early. But let's compare evidence, just for fun.

Guys we are being duped!!!  I am 99% sure that Dow is CC.  Let's look at the past five days:

 

Day1:

Votes for Shallan

Says false info about the CC to look like he doesn't understand the coinshots – They don’t know who each other are:

http://www.17thshard...-express/page-5

 

Day2:

Votes for Gamma

Changes it to himself

 

Day3:

Votes for Clanky

Gets called out, but doesn’t respond

 

Day4:

Posts 1 minute after Zas to start a bandwagon on me.  FInally after most of us are dead, he comes active and starts a bandwagon lynch.

 

Day5:

Joins Zas again to try and lynch another innocent villager.

 

Dow has not contributed anything to the game, period.  He hasn't jumped on any of the voting bandwagons until he knew that there were enough villagers gone that he wouldn't be called out.  He has been the perfect member of the CC, quietly avoiding too much attention until he feels safe enough to come out and stir up lynches.  He needs to be our number one target today. Dow

Day1: Misinformation is slightly suspicious, but could just as easily have been a misunderstanding.

Day2: Absolutely nothing suspicious here.

Day3: This would be kinda suspicious, but I honestly don't remember this happening. Might someone be able to provide a link?

Day4: this is the best piece of evidence Neo gathered against Dow.

Day5: Day5 actions point more towards Neo, as we KNOW he voted for an innocent.

The rest of it seems to be calling Dow out on lack of activity. Now, let's look at Dow's points.

Why Neo is a CC:

The first and foremost reason Neo is a CC is due to his change in play style from past games. He rarely is this active or posts nearly as much as he does. Over the cycles he has posted about 12 times which is a much higher then other games. This is just not how he plays and the increase of activity points to him being a CC.

Next is the quality of his posts. Almost half of his posts have been poke votes. For reference you can them here:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-3#entry282116

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-4#entry282260

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431

http://www.17thshard...-12#entry283488

Poke votes can be helpful, but it seems like he is doing so many so he can say he is adding value when in reality it has done almost nothing. This seems like a strategy to try and seem not only active, but "helpful" without being helpful. This reeks of a Eliminator to me.

The only post of somewhat relevance is this one:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754

but then he says he is going to review and never comes back to post his suspicions.

He does that again here

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431

and then again doesn't come back with any reasoning.

In fact I think the only time he has really brought up any suspicion was on me AFTER I called him out for being a CC. This reeks of being a CC as well.

He has been crying victim that bandwagons are forming on him last minute, but I have yet to find where a true bandwagon has happened to him.

Shenanigans happened in the Passenger car cycle 4 and neo was there. Yet another piece albeit small that Neo is a CC.

Not a single vote of his has helped the village except the vote he used when he was up on the chopping block:

He actually makes some good points here. As someone who has played as both, I can guarantee being an eliminator can make a normally less active player more active. As far about the bit about poke votes, I only find this slightly suspicious. It can be a good way to hide your voting motive, but it can also be a way to invoke the participation of less actives.

Promising analysis and not having any sounds like someone who actually doesn't have proof.

The bit about claiming bandwagons when there are none is good evidence.

Edited June 26, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[Alvron]

Just popping in quickly to say that I will be away for the rest of the cycle.  I fully intend to address the questions directed to me should I survive the day.  If not then you will know by my role.

 

At moment I will be keeping my vote on Clanky as I've not had the time to go through everything posted while I was at work.  Clanky, I was not intending to sound as aggressive as I did in my post but you hadn't responded to my vote in the prior cycle despite having been on after it was posted so I tried a more forward post but might have sent the wrong message.  I apologize if this was the case as I was simply trying to get a response from you.  As I stated, the rules part was only a first step in what I had planned but it was interrupted before I could fully implement it.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ok, apologies for the lack of deep analysis. I am suspicious currently of Neo, Clanky, and to an extent Aanwolf.

I would agree with the analysis from Peng above regarding Neo, have had a lingering suspicion of Clanky for a while, since he rebutted the idea of opening up information flow to the village, and Aanwolf seems incredibly active - possibly eliminator active.

[Zas678 he/him]

See I'm not sure that Aanwolf's being eliminator active- he seems sincere in his posts, and I think it's more just his first time, and he's enjoying analyzing. 

 

Of course, that being said, I accused someone earlier of being Elimantor active. But Aanwolf seems to be putting a lot of effort into his analysis, and I think he's a villager. 

 

Or he could be pulling the wool over my eyes. Who knows with this game, right?

[neodymium]

You guys have every reason to lynch me.  I was sure of Dow.  Anyways, I'll put my vote on Clanky for now. 

[Renegade he/him]

58 minutes left to vote and get your actions in!

Edited June 27, 2015 by Renegade

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Im equally suspicious of Neo and Clanky, however I am going to put my vote on Clanky. I can give reasons next round if require

 

Edit: Gah, ninja'd :/ Technically the edit was the same time as my post: will that count?

Edited June 27, 2015 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Renegade he/him]

The cycle is now over!  (Technically, I called it over just before Burnt Spaghetti posted, but she did post it before the minute switched, so I guess it'll count....)

[Renegade he/him]

Station 7: Dead of Night

The Steelway Express thundered on through the sun’s last rays, and into the night.  Their next stop was at Horne’s Peak, which wasn’t a mountain at all as much as it was a large, gently sloping hill.  From the top of the hill, if the passengers squinted hard enough, they might’ve been able to locate Elendel, out in the great distance.  And reaching Elendel meant…

Freedom.  Well, hopefully, at least.  By the time they reached Elendel, they’d be able to leave this forsaken train, and finally make their way home.  Unless crazy Gavin Gardre decided that they wouldn’t leave until every last Coinshot Clan member on board was assassinated.  How would they even know when they were all dead, anyway?  It was utter madness.

Gavin picked up a lantern from beside the locomotive’s boiler, and headed back into the passenger car, where the remaining passengers had been relocated to.  Gavin squinted his eyes and yawned.  It had been a long day, that was for sure.  And it still wasn’t even over.  Not yet.

Gavin coughed, and the lantern’s flame flickered.  “So, you got any suspects for me?”

Some of the passengers were nearly asleep by now, but others still had the energy at this hour to accuse each other.  “Penga!” Old Wolf declared.

The other passengers rolled their eyes.  “Nobody agrees with you,” a grouchy Zane mumbled.  “And anyway, it just has to be Neo.  He’s been acting suspiciously for the past two or three stations, so should we just turn a blind eye to him now?”

“Yes,” Neo protested, “because Doctor McNinja is one of them!  You all saw how he helped to bandage up Grind’s wound!  Why would he want to help out a Clan member?”

“Maybe because I’m a doctor, and it’s my job to heal people?” said Doctor McNinja.

“Is it your job to heal murderous, homicidal killers?” Neo continued, nearly poking McNinja in the nose.

“Oh, please,” Penga frowned.  “How was he to know that Grind was one of them?  I didn’t see you make any accusations towards him!”

Neo opened his mouth to speak, but was cut off by Locke.  “Also,” Locke protested, “ ‘Murderous, homicidal killer’ is extremely redundant.  I will not stand for that sort of superfluousness.”

Gavin rubbed his eyes, and held a hand up.  “So, either Neo or McNinja, am I correct?”

Most of the passengers nodded, though Nails and Old Wolf shook their heads.

“Good,” Gavin said.  As quickly as he had done the past several times, Gavin brought out his pistol and fired straight into Neo’s belly.  “He was definitely a Coinshot Clan member,” Gavin said.  “I caught a glimpse of him polishing his fancy pistol earlier.”

“But… but if you knew,” Symmer protested, “why did you force us to go through all of this?”

Gavin raised an eyebrow.  “You never know what sort of information you’ll dig up this way.  Now, if I’m correct, we should be expecting a visitor sometime soon.”

As if on cue, a suit-wearing man blasted through the side doors of the passenger car, almost tripping up the steps.  To nobody’s surprise, it was the same man who had killed Met-al and Grind earlier that day.  The assassin pulled something out of his pocket and read it.  Then, silently, he pulled out his pistol and pointed it straight at his head.  The passengers, knowing what was about to happen, cleared the path.

All except for Symmer.  The bullet struck her in the neck, and she fell right on top of Neo.

“Ooh…” the assassin whispered, walking backwards down the car’s steps, “I am an enigma!  I move in silence, like the wind whispering through the breeze!  Or, something like that.  I flunked out of poetry in grade school.  Anyway, see ya on the flip side, friends!”  With that, the assassin hopped off The Steelway Express and into the darkness.

To the passenger’s great relief, the Coinshot Clan appeared to make no move again.  However, several of them began to wonder if they had just killed the last Clan member, and Gavin Gardre was simply trying to slaughter them all.  He didn’t seem all too bright, with his senseless killing used to prove people’s innocence or guilt.

But with that, the sleepy passengers headed through the night, nearing Elendel.

---

Vote Tally:
Neo (3): Zane Tevison, Locke, Penga
Doctor McNinja (3): Symmer Ghetti, Nails, Neo
Nails (1): Bortholemew the Blind
Penga (1): Old Wolf

Neo was lynched!  He was a Coinshot Clan member!
Symmer Ghetti was assassinated!  She was a Passenger.

There was no Coinshot Clan kill today!
(By the way, lynching a player that was making the CC kill will also cancel the kill.  Didn’t mention this last cycle, since it wasn’t a possibility, but now that it is, I felt like I should include this.)

Station 7 begins now and will end in about 23 hours!  There is no Assassin available today.  Good luck!

Player List

 

Zane Tevison (zas678)
Jain (Lightsworn Panda)
Symmer Ghetti (Burnt Spaghetti)
Miss Evyn (Lady Eowyn)
Grind (Gamma Fiend)
Senn Conrad-Tekiel (Seonid)
The Pooh with a Name (Araris Valerian)
Locke (OrlokTsubodai)
Seixa (phattemer)
Bortholemew the Blind (Bort)
Vindication (Shallan)
Everton Slade (Bridge Boy)
Doctor McNinja (Clanky)
Nails (Alvron)
Neo (Neodymium)
Penga (jasonpenguin)
Mennet Farrsolin (Adamir)
Leif Erikeller (leiftinspace)
Silent Man (The Only Joe)
Old Wolf (Aanwolf)
Dow (dowanx)
Met-al (Metacognition)

Edited October 13, 2016 by Alvron

[Elithanathile he/him]

I'm just going to toss out a poke vote on Bort. He was very active the first few stations, and seemed to drop off into inactivity recently. As soon as I see a reply with a reason, I will retract my vote.

[Aanwolf]

It's late and I'm tired, so no super long analysis from me for now.  I'm sure you are all crushed 

 

I just wanted to formally apologize.  It's been brought to my attention that I have not been following correct procedure in regard to multiple posting, which is to be avoided.  That's my bad - I should have read the forum guidelines more closely.  I guess they aren't as interesting as the game, but probably a lot more important.  In any case, thanks for pointing it out, and I'll make sure to follow policy from here on out.

 

I'm not sure what to think now anyways.  I was wrong about leftinspace, and I think my look at peng is less plausible now that we know Neo was CC.  Peng's explanation that he needed to vote early gives a plausible reason for his initial behavior, and while I still think some of the rest of it doesn't make sense in the timeline, it no longer seems like it points one way or the other.  I made a similar mistake with Phatt's math and leftinspace, so...

 

The fact that no one agreed with me and I wasn't killed (no I wasn't in the Vault car) leads me to think the CC don't think I'm convincing either.  First time over-enthusiasm?    I have been having fun doing the analysis, but it's also been way too time consuming, so I think I need to lighten up a bit.  I will let someone else come up with the argument then, and maybe chime in with shorter (but hopefully still meaningful) comments on others' arguments.

[Clanky he/him]

Wow I was't expecting to get that close to being lynched today. However I was expecting to get on again before the end of the cycle but had unexpected guests sow up so I couldn't really spend any time on here. I would like to apologize for that as I should have come on to clear the air a bit. Also I am not sure how this happened but I missed Alvron saying that he was in the Vault car previous to this. I feel like this clears him in my eyes since having the CCs attack someone in the Vault car seemed to be the most likely reason for last cycles lac of CC kill. I am sorry for suspecting you Alvron

 

Also I will put my vote on Orlok for now. You haven't done anything to dissuade my previous suspicious. I will try to do a better analysis of tomorrow when I am a bit more sober.

 

EDIT: Removed vote off of Orlok

Edited June 27, 2015 by Clanky

[Peng the Just he/him]

HA! Called it!

EDIT: just realized there wasn't a CC kill. bridgeboy was thrown off the caboose.

Edited June 27, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[Alvron]

I am sorry for suspecting you Alvron

It's all good.  I am also sorry for suspecting you.  I tend to focus on just one person and go after them until either they or myself are dead.  Not that I don't still suspect you but I have started looking elsewhere.

 

Also, Alvron. I find the timing highly suspicious. You visit the vault car, just at the right moment to save your life? That, coupled with your relative inactivity, makes me wonder about you.

I wouldn't say it was all that suspicious.  I tend not to live very long so hopping in the Vault is a logical move for me.  It cost me all my coins but if the CC did attack me then it was money well spent.

 

As for why there wasn't a kill this round could be for several reasons.   Ren may have said that lynching someone making the kill would stop the kill going through but it's not the only reason so we shouldn't just assume that's what happened.

 

1) It was Neos turn and it didn't go through because he was lynched.

2) The CC hadn't placed the kill order in.

3) The CC was roleblocked.  None of the votes are missing so that leaves those that didn't vote. Jain, Clanky and Bridgeboy.  Clanky was in the Buffet car so wasn't roleblocked.  Anyone know where Jain and Bridge were?

4) They attacked someone in the Vault car.  Was anyone in the Vault car?

 

I would like to hear why Bridge and Jain didn't vote.

 

Also I'm not going to be on for the last 16 hours of the cycle again.  One of the ones I work with slipped on some ice and fractured his wrist so I was called in earlier today to finish his shift and have been asked to cover his next one.  I shall try to get a vote placed before I go to work.

[Zas678 he/him]

I was in the vault car alone last night. And I totally called it with Neo!

Who took the assassin? Was it a cultist, or does someone want to step forward?

EDIT.

I am very suspicious of Burnt. She, at the last possible minute, put on a vote that nearly took out Clanky instead of Neo. I want to hear an explanation, and it better be good.

It's possible that Bridge Boy is the last one, but he didn't vote because he knew he was role blocked, and he wanted someone else to vote.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Metacognition
man... I wind up having to fix color things a lot recently! :P

[Bort he/him]

I'm just going to toss out a poke vote on Bort. He was very active the first few stations, and seemed to drop off into inactivity recently. As soon as I see a reply with a reason, I will retract my vote.

I'm not inactive, but my posts tend to be created while most of our players are asleep and by the time others start posting, it is late evening here and I'm rarely on that late. People were more enthusiastic (and there were more of them) at the start of the game so there was more communication. Some early enough for me to respond to. Now that isn't really the case.

I'll be back in a bit to log my vote.

[Zas678 he/him]

And never mind. I missed the fact that Burn was the one that was assassinated. Darn. For now, just for the sake of a vote, Jain. It's just a poke vote, but I would like to hear what you think.

 

EDIT- Jain, although I want to hear what you're thinking, I'm thinking I have to go with Bridge Boy. I'll explain why in the morning. 

[Elithanathile he/him]

I didn't vote because I had been watching the thread very closely, then at about 3:00 here, with about 3-4 hours left to go in the station, I got wrapped up in something with my dad, and finished up at about 7:30. So I'm sorry for not being able to vote, but I'm not sorry I spent time with my dad. My not voting had nothing to do with this game or the kill. I'm not a CC, and I believe the reason the kill didn't go through is because Neo was killed. If you look up at the main post of this thread, it says at the end that if a CC is lynched, then the kill doesn't go through. This isn't rock solid evidence, but I am very convinced that Neo had the kill that station, and was lynched before he could do it.

 

Here you go Bort!

 

And I seem to have made myself a target. What fun.

 

Haven't heard from Orlok in a while, so I'm going to toss out another poke vote on him. At this later stage, we need everyone participating that we can get.

[Bort he/him]

I wouldn't say it was all that suspicious.  I tend not to live very long so hopping in the Vault is a logical move for me.  It cost me all my coins but if the CC did attack me then it was money well spent.

 

So, your quality timing was just coincidence? I don't believe you.

 

You have barely been around for this game, from the car PMs I've seen, you post maybe once per day (and not really helpful posts either, if I'm being honest), yet you were able to select the one cycle you got attacked on to visit the vault car.

 

No, I believe that, since Gamma had already been lynched, and since Neo was drawing suspicion, you staged an attack on yourself to build trust. There are not many people left, and it is a fair assumption to make that, if someone is attacked, then they are probably not CC. This late in the game, it is exactly the kind of move the Coinshots should be considering.

 

As for why there wasn't a kill this round could be for several reasons.   Ren may have said that lynching someone making the kill would stop the kill going through but it's not the only reason so we shouldn't just assume that's what happened.

 

1) It was Neo's turn and it didn't go through because he was lynched.

2) The CC hadn't placed the kill order in.

3) The CC was roleblocked.  None of the votes are missing so that leaves those that didn't vote. Jain, Clanky and Bridgeboy.  Clanky was in the Buffet car so wasn't roleblocked.  Anyone know where Jain and Bridge were?

4) They attacked someone in the Vault car.  Was anyone in the Vault car?

 

I would like to hear why Bridge and Jain didn't vote.

 

Also I'm not going to be on for the last 16 hours of the cycle again.  One of the ones I work with slipped on some ice and fractured his wrist so I was called in earlier today to finish his shift and have been asked to cover his next one.  I shall try to get a vote placed before I go to work.

 

I'll admit I'd like to know why Jain didn't vote too. Bridge has already explained. Personally, I believe Neo was the killer last night, which is why the kill didn't go through.

 

Alvron. Either you are guilty and trying to frame yourself as innocent, or you're a passenger who has had too little time for this game. Given that you've managed to post at least once to defend yourself whenever you've been accused, I believe guilty.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Bort - whilst your analysis of Alvron is interesting, my only concern is that putting both Gamma and Alvron on the Eliminator team would lead to an unbalanced game - Bridgeboy's statement that Neo had the kill doent prove him innocent - correlation does not imply causation - and currently Bridgeboy is my largest suspicion - testimony to the effectiveness of the Coinshot CLan - so whether they are successful or not, they do deserve congratulations for hiding so well!

[Bort he/him]

Aren't the roles supposed to be decided randomly?

 

Either way, you are right, the Coinshots do deserve congratulations. I said as much the day Gamma was lynched, when we had a full half of the players dead, and still no Coinshots.

 

Now there are nine people left, one or two Coinshots among them*. Say two kills per cycle - lynch and CC kill - plus one round with the assassin available. That only gives us 4 cycles left to find whoever is left.

 

*Given the lack of seeker type abilities, I think there is probably just one left. Could easily be wrong though.

 

Although, an utter lack of response in the PM thread does make me wonder. Alvron. Orlok.

 

Jain, what about you? How come no response from you yet?

Edited June 27, 2015 by Bort