Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Renegade he/him]

59 minutes left to get your votes and actions in!

[Aanwolf]

Ok, I've reviewed all of the previous posts by Neo, Dow, and Penguin... typing up my summary here, will post analysis afterwards:

 

Neo pokes Symmer to promote discussion

Neo shifts vote to Bort when Symmer responds, again to promote discussion

Dow pokes Shallan, asks for discussion, mistake that kills are within a car

Penguin immediately follows Dow, implicitly making the same mistake

Dow mistake that CC don't know each other

Dow asks for a GM to weigh in

Dow thanks the GM

Penguin changes vote to avoid bandwagons (after I remove vote from metal as well)

Neo responds to callout by Clanky for not posting much, argues for not revealing train car occupants, pokes Orlok

Neo responds to leftinspace, reinforcing previous argument

Penguin responds to Seonid, explaining last vote change in context of his anti-"lynch meta" bandwagon stance

Dow pokes Gamma asking for info

Dow thanks Gamma for info and then votes for self instead

Penguin again defends himself from repeated accusation from leftinspace

Neo posts (he admits non-interesting) results of looking into posts made by those who have been targeted, then pokes Leftinspace claiming he hadn't posted (which he had) and aking for more discussion

Penguin explains lack of vote due to time constraints from real-life

Dow votes for Clanky due to gut feeling (no solid suspicions on any one)

Neo admits mistake about leftinspace not posting, saying it was due to confusion between player name and forum name, then pokes Alvron asking for participation

Penguin agrees with meta's accusations on phat due to coin math and votes for phat

Phat calls for jumping on penguin in big capital letters

Neo removes vote from Alvron after his post, changes to Jain with no explanation

Neo posts to respond to Shallan's charge of inactivity, asks for info about who assassinated meta, votes for Orlok with no explanation

Penguin votes for leftinspace as retribution for leftinspace assassinating metal

Dow criticizes shallan for lowering assassin bid, but points out that it indicates she is probably not CC, then votes for Neo due to discrepancy with previous playstyle but saying there is no concrete evidence

Neo claims a bandwagon targetting him, responds to claims about playstyle change, offers to be role-blocked, votes for Shallan

Neo thinks he'll be lynched, complains that CC are winning, consoles self that info will come out

[Aanwolf]

Note: I didn't start following penguin's posts in this analysis until seeing him follow Dow, I'll look back at the posts before that.  Also, other than Phatt's post in big letters, I didn't list any accusations against them that weren't responded to as I wasn't looking for them. (The Phatt one jumped out at me due to extreme formatting).

 

EDIT: It was quick to get Penguin's other posts, as there was only one before that and it was just roleplaying

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Zas678 he/him]

Personally, what I think happened is that Peng sees what's going on, and that Neo has a good shot of being killed, so he sends in his kill vote to Neo as well as a strategy to get out of being killed, which includes accusing Dow. Peng asks if he's willing to bet his life on it (cause even one mislynch at this point makes it worth it for the CC), and Neo says yes. Peng then changes his vote, and starts the lynchtrain on Dow. 

[Aanwolf]

OK, analysis:

 

Plenty of posts from both Neo and Dow.  Both poked to promote discussion.  Neo poked 7 times, Dow 3.  Not sure what that says.  Both changed poke votes after the target participated.

 

Both made mistakes, Neo about leftinspace's player name, Dow about the rules of the game

 

Both made accusations without explanations (I don't count "gut feeling" as an explanation).  Note that includes not justifying it as a poke to promote participation.

 

Neither made a lot of logical arguments.  Dow discussed Shallan's assassin bid change in detail, Neo addressed his discrepancy in playstyle in detail.

 

So, I'm not sure this says much about the Neo/Dow thing directly.  I don't think either of them have a solid argument based on their own behavior history. However, I'm even more suspicious of Penguin following Dow now, so I'll stick with my vote for the reasons I've given.

[Aanwolf]

Zas, what I want to know is: which of Peng's arguments apply to Neo and not to Dow?  I don't see any.  So why so sure about them pointing to Neo? It's obviously biased application of evidence.

[Alvron]

Clanky.  I have a great dislike for bandwagons.  Enough of a dislike that I actively try to avoid joining them.  That said I'm going to join this one and vote for Dow to insure that no last minute hijinx change the outcome.

[Peng the Just he/him]

Overall, I find Dow's points to be far more convincing. I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

[Renegade he/him]

Cycle over.  Write-up coming soon!

[Renegade he/him]

Station 6: Nightfall

It was just past sunset by the time the remaining passengers arrived at their next station, in the small town of Gasper’s Run.  Contrasting the bustling evening activity in Vindiel-Cameux, Gasper’s Run was almost completely quiet and dark, shadowed from the sun.  Crickets chirped in the tall grasses that overran the small town, which was, in truth, little more than a village.

Gavin Gardre led the passengers down into a clearing by the town -- this wasn’t exactly a popular stop for locomotives.  Grind hobbled down the steps last, wincing at the pain in the side of his ribcage.

“You’re part of them,” Gavin spoke to Grind, just loud enough for everyone else to hear.

Grind looked at the ground, offering no reply, which was all the proof Gavin needed.

“Very well,” Gavin sighed.  “According to our resident doctor, you’re likely to not survive to get back on my train, so you’re of no threat to us.”  Gavin turned to the other passengers, who were mired in shadow.  Now that it was nighttime, killing for the Coinshot Clan would be easier.  They’d have to find the rest of the Clan soon, or they wouldn’t stand a chance if it came to a battle.  “Who do you think is the most suspicious here?”

“Dow,” Neo said unwaveringly, and many of the others nodded.  Dow frowned, but said nothing.  Perhaps he knew that he was outnumbered.

“Dow?” Gavin asked.  “You’re so sure of his guilt, this time?”

Neo nodded slowly.  “I… I think so.  I mean, I’m almost certain.”  Several of the others who had backed him nodded again.

Gavin took in a breath, then turned to Grind.  “Do you have anything to say about this issue?”

Grind didn’t even react, still staring at the ground, blood dripping from his bandages.  The poor man was suffering greatly now, but he had lead to some of their deaths, so… well, wasn’t it justified?

Gavin ignored that moral dilemma and turned to face the more pressing one.  “Looks like it’s Dow,” Gavin sighed.  Barely wasting a second, Gavin aimed the gun at Dow’s shuddering body, and fired.  The man fell with a thump onto the dirt below.  Gavin knew whether the man was innocent or guilty before he hit the ground.

“Fools,” Gavin muttered.  “Do you know how many innocents you’ve let die today?  The only guilty person we’ve found is Grind, and an assassin killed him.  Or… well, he's not dead yet, but you know what I mean.  There are still more Clan members out there.  They’d never bring just two members aboard for this kind of raid… no, they’re still here.”

Many of the passengers were unsure of Gavin’s proclamation as he herded them back into the car.  And they were even more unsure as they noticed that none of them had been killed by the Coinshot Clan at that station.

The Steelway Express rolled on into the night, leaving behind the corpses of Grind and Dow.

---

Vote Tally:
Dow (6): Symmer Ghetti, Locke, Everton Slade, Nails, Neo, Old Wolf
Neo (2): Zane Tevison, Penga, Dow
Nails (2): Bortholemew the Blind, Doctor McNinja
Symmer Ghetti (1): Jain

Dow was lynched!  He was a Passenger.
Grind has bled to death!  He was a Coinshot Clan member!

There was no Coinshot Clan kill today!

(I just know that someone is going to ask me about this, so the lack of a kill, gameplay-wise, means that the Clan member making the kill did not make a kill at all, was kicked out of the Caboose, or was outside of the Vault Car and targeted a player inside the Vault Car.  Also, Grind died after all actions, including kills, occurred.)

Station 6 begins now and will end in about 23 and a half hours!  There will be an Assassin available today.  Good luck!

Player List

 

Zane Tevison (zas678)
Jain (Lightsworn Panda)
Symmer Ghetti (Burnt Spaghetti)
Miss Evyn (Lady Eowyn)
Grind (Gamma Fiend)
Senn Conrad-Tekiel (Seonid)
The Pooh with a Name (Araris Valerian)
Locke (OrlokTsubodai)
Seixa (phattemer)
Bortholemew the Blind (Bort)
Vindication (Shallan)
Everton Slade (Bridge Boy)
Doctor McNinja (Clanky)
Nails (Alvron)
Neo (Neodymium)
Penga (jasonpenguin)
Mennet Farrsolin (Adamir)
Leif Erikeller (leiftinspace)
Silent Man (The Only Joe)
Old Wolf (Aanwolf)
Dow (dowanx)
Met-al (Metacognition)

Edited October 13, 2016 by Alvron

[Clanky he/him]

Alvron the fact that Gamma was a CC makes you slightly less suspicious to me as it removes my theory about using your vote to direct assassinations. However my other reasoning still stands and knowing that Gamma was a CC your vote on him could've been an attempt to remove suspicion on yourself. Basically what I am saying is that a single vote by someone on a CC who wasn't in danger of being lynched does not mean you actually tried to get him killed. 

 

Also about the CC non-kill we have a few options:

 

1) CC forgot or was unable to perform kill. We should look at people who were not online for most of the round who could be responsible for this. EDIT: I looked through everybody left alive and it seems like I was the one away for longest before the cycle ended. Everyone else was on fairly close to the switch-over or had already been on after the switch-over by the time I checked them.

 

2) Was kicked off the caboose, one of Zas or peng by looking at the vote count. Can someone from the caboose confirm exactly who?

 

3)Targeted someone inside the vault. We can find out who if anyone was in the vault by checking the passenger lists of all three cars.

 

4) Didn't perform the kill deliberately to put suspicion the person who got caboosed.

 

I may have missed some options so tell me if i did. Any thoughts on this?

 

EDITED part of option 1.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Clanky

[Peng the Just he/him]

Pretty clear choice for me today. Neo

[Zas678 he/him]

I'm still with Neo. I was in the passenger car, and here's the people that were with me:

 

Jasonpenguin

Bort 

OrlokTsubodai

Zas678

 

Surprisingly, our bid went through, which is a measure of good note (though not very clearing) of the group. 

[Alvron]

There were three possible people making the kill that could also have been thrown off the train.

 

Dow, who is dead and couldn't have placed a kill order as he was a passenger.

 

Peng and Zas which thanks to Zas' post shows that they were in a different carriage so they weren't role-blocked.

 

So it looks like Dow was thrown off the train.  Which means that either a kill order wasn't placed or that the CC targeted someone in the Vault carriage.  

 

There was only one person in the Vault during the past phase.  Me.  This can easily be confirmed by everyone posting who was in what carriages.

 

So the question is, was a kill order not placed or was I the target?  I doubt they failed to place the kill as they are close to winning and everyone was online during the cycle so there is little to no reason not to.  So either they tried to kill me or they decided not to use the kill for some obscure reason.  If they did try to kill me then that would (possibly) clear those in either the passenger or caboose carriage as the CC didn't know I wasn't in one of the carriages.  Gamma was in the Buffet one so they knew who was there at least.  This is assuming that the CC are passing lists of who's where in their PMs.

 

 

Clanky, your reasoning for me is faulty.  If I was a CC, I wouldn't use votes for directing assassins as I would have no way of controlling who gets the assassin.  And I have already addressed the rest of your questions.  If you have anything new to add then by all means let us know.

[Clanky he/him]

I am not voting for you at the moment Alvron. I said you were less suspicious now that Gamma was shown to be a CC. Still it is not faulty reasoning. Since you don't know who exactly will get the Assassin you could use your vote as a way of saying who you want killed should one of your comrades actually get the assassin kill. I have been trying to think of ways the CCs could communicate to the CC without the kill. This is something I came up with and it works whether or not a fellow CC got the assassin kill since you didn't seem to really be using it to actually try to get someone lynched. However I already said that this obviously isn't the case.

 

Also you ask if I have anything new to add and I do. Using knowing the rules as a reason to vote for someone is ridiculous. I like to know the rules of every game I play as both a villager and a eliminator. I think that purposefully misstating rules is more of a CC move then knowing the game rules. 

 

EDIT: Also I don't think that we should go down the path of since Dow was a passenger Neo therefore must be a CC. That is faulty logic. This is not a situation where this is the case such as the Witness role in LG10. Now I am not saying Neo isn't a CC but there is nothing saying he must be a CC. I hate saying things like this since it seems like I am defending Neo. However I feel like it needs to be said.

 

Also Alvron, you seemed to view my first post as another accusal of you. That was not what was meant. I was trying to say that I saw you as less suspicious now but by no means cleared. 

Edited June 26, 2015 by Clanky

[Aanwolf]

OK, two main things I want to comment on.  One is about the kill not going through, which I will get to in a later post.  The other is about the Dow/Neo debate and what it can tell us.  I'll address that one now.

 

Obviously Dow was not CC.  However, I am still suspicious of peng's behavior, for reasons I have already given.  I still want to know the answer to what about any of the Dow/Neo argument pointed more to one over the other.  Zas is welcome to chime in on this as well, since he thinks peng's behavior makes sense.  I don't really care who gives me a good answer to the question, I just want one, and I think it is important enough that I am making a vote early to ensure I get an answer.

 

Peng/Zas, is there anything you can point to that justifies confidence one way and not the other?  If so, I will retract my vote since I have no other reason to suspect peng.  

 

In essence, I feel I must conclude one of the following:

 

1) You are a passenger and it was an honest mistake, perhaps due to prior biases about Dow and/or Neo.  Given previous following of Dow, I would guess that a bias for Dow is more likely than a bias against Neo.

 

2) You are a passenger and there was something else you saw besides what was stated publicly in the thread (or something I somehow missed).  I'm willing to entertain the idea that due to some plan, you had a legitimate reason (from a passenger perspective) to not say something, but I would want a good explanation or convincing argument to that effect.

 

3) You are CC and had reasons from a CC perspective to target Neo over Dow.  Since Dow was a passenger, it couldn't have been to protect Dow.  So, either:

  a... Neo is a passenger.  In that case, you didn't really care who got targeted among Neo and Dow, but it would be of great benefit to push the debate to be between Dow and Neo early in the round so that nothing would coalesce around a fellow CC, or...

  b... Neo is CC.  In that case, the motivation must have been to draw suspicion away from yourself.

 

Please help me to choose among these options, as they have significant ramifications.  In the meantime, I will be writing out my thoughts on the lack of a CC kill.  (For now I consider that less pressing, especially since Alvron has already started a good analysis of that topic.)

 

EDIT: silly letter formatting turned into emotes on me again.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Aanwolf]

OK, at the risk of distracting from my demand for an answer from peng, here are my thoughts on the CC kill.

 

I agree with Alvron that the most likely scenario is that he was targeted by the CC, and the kill failed to go through. I do have a few thoughts on side possibilities, but that is what makes the most sense to me.

 

If the CC targeted Alvron by mistake, then the possibilities seem to be

 

1...It was a dumb mistake and the CC should have known better.  That assumes sloppy CC, which is not the way they have been behaving in general, though it could reflect a change that has occured over time as the pressure builds.  If it was uncharacteristic, then it tells us nothing.  If it was a change in behavior, then we can look for signs of that in past posts.

 

2...the CC who declared the kill had imperfect information.  In this case either the CC didn't consider the possibility that Alvron was in the vault car, or it was a calculated risk.  In the first case, my conclusions are the same as for possibility 1.  In the latter case, either

  a... the CC had strong reasons to go after Alvron that tipped the risk/reward balance in favor of targeting him, or...

  b... the CC were willing to take the risk because the CC making the kill has a personality/attitude that tends to take risks, or...

  c... the CC had a backup plan in case Alvron was in the vault car that was good enough to make the risk a small one.

 

Now, it should come as no surprise that since I have made accusations of sudden sloppy behavior, I am predisposed to go with possibility 1.  However, possibility 2 has some interesting consequences that should be explored:

 

If 2a is the case, then we should look for reasons why Alvron would be a high-priority target.

If 2b is the case, then we could look for signs of that personality trait.

If 2c is the case, then we should consider why the CC would be willing to not kill someone.  So, let's consider some possibilities in that direction:

 

i... the CC wanted to cast suspicion on the person who was role-blocked.  Assuming our info about car occupants is confirmed, this only makes sense if the vote in the caboose was likely to land on someone that was not going to be lynched.  (Or, there were no CC in the caboose and so they were willing to cast suspicion on anyone in that car, and got unlucky that it was the person lynched).

ii... the CC planned to turn the failed kill into an attempt to turn suspicion on another specific person or group.  That could be any of the groups I have mentioned so far: sloppy behavior, someone who wants to target Alvron, or a risk-taker.

 

So far, I'm the only one who has suggested a group of one of those types (sloppy) with specific name(s) that might draw attention away from others.  However, it is early in the round, and I have also given a good reason for anyone to look for ways to put anyone they suspect in any of those groups, so that would only make sense if I were confident I could keep the other groups from being considered seriously or I were confident that no CC would end up in any of those groups.  Either one of those seems pretty arrogant to me.  I may be confident in my reasoning, but that's only because I believe logic is objective and we can work on good reasoning together, especially since there are others still alive who have demonstrated sound reasoning.

 

There are three more general possibilities that I consider remote, but I will mention them for the sake of completeness.  First, as Alvron considered, it could be that an order wasn't placed because someone was not able to be online to do so.  As Alvron points out, everyone was online at some point during the cycle.  It is possible that someone was on briefly very early but waited to post until a bit later and then has something unexpected come up, but I don't know how likely that is.  Second, someone could be lying about who was where, but this is easily discovered unless there aren't enough living passengers remaining to challenge it.  I doubt that, and if it were true, we're probably all dead anyway.  Third, Alvron could be CC and using the situation to remove suspicion from himself.  However, this would either require him to spend a chunk of coin to get to the vault car or he wasn't actually in the vault car, which would reduce to the last possibility I considered and already discarded.  Furthermore, it seems like way too risky of a move, and Alvron is a careful enough thinker that I find it highly unlikely he would give up a kill this late in the game to remove suspicion from himself when there wasn't much (if any) pressure on him last round anyway.

 

OK, so what to take away from all this? I have identified three groups worth considering, and I invite suggestions on any of those that seem likely and who would fit those criteria.  They are at the very least things to look for.  I also want to encourage anyone who sees a further possibility or who disagrees with my analysis in any way to say so.

 

Finally, I want to remind everyone that although the lack of a CC kill is new and surprising information, we should not forget to also use the info that Gamma was CC to help us identify likely accomplices.  Especially since he is the only one we *know* to be CC.  I guess the motivation to distract from that should also be listed as a motive for not killing someone last turn, though that seems like a pretty risky maneuver to me.  Anyway, I would appreciate your thoughts/comments...

 

EDIT: Grammar only

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Aanwolf]

One more possibility I had not considered, but is not likely:  If Gamma had the kill, then there is a slight chance that either he thought it wouldn't go through since he was dying, or that he did some weird revenge thing to sabotage his team, or that he stopped participating when he knew he was dead and discovered as CC and forgot that he could still target someone.  Again, seems very unlikely, but I want to make sure I consider all possibilities (and encourage others to do the same) so as not to miss anything.

 

It is late here and I am tired, so I've got to log off and get some sleep, but I promise to post my own analysis of Gamma's prior posts in the morning, as well as some thoughts on optimal use of med-kits in the late game.  In the meantime, I hope that gets others to independently investigate either or both topics....

[Bort he/him]

EDIT: I looked through everybody left alive and it seems like I was the one away for longest before the cycle ended. Everyone else was on fairly close to the switch-over or had already been on after the switch-over by the time I checked them.

 

Clanky, I was in bed and asleep some three hours before the cycle ended, and this is the first chance I've had to get back on since then, so you checking that everyone was on just before or just after the cycle change is obviously wrong. I'm in the wrong time zone to be awake for the roll over unless I'm willing to stay up until past 3am (it has happened before, but not on a weekday).

 

I'm still with Neo. I was in the passenger car, and here's the people that were with me:

 

Jasonpenguin

Bort 

OrlokTsubodai

Zas678

 

Surprisingly, our bid went through, which is a measure of good note (though not very clearing) of the group. 

 

Did it? I'm waiting for clarification from Renegade about the bet, but I started the last cycle with 10 coins, and now I have 12. I actually think there was a mistake made somewhere in Ren's calculations, as by my count, I should have either 10 or 14 coins now ->

 

10 -2 (bet) +1 (post) +1 (vote) + 0 or 4 depending on if the bet was successful or not.

 

Vote analysis for this cycle. 13 voters, 12 votes. Gamma was the one who didn't vote. Since he's dead, not going to bother asking why not. Plus, he was Coinshot, so probably wouldn't have gotten much of an answer anyways.

 

Either Zane, Penga, or Dow were roleblocked last cycle (which means it was Dow, as both Zas and Pang were in the passenger car). Which begs the question, why roleblock someone when you are about to kill them?

 

Who else was in the caboose yesterday?

 

Also, Alvron. I find the timing highly suspicious. You visit the vault car, just at the right moment to save your life? That, coupled with your relative inactivity, makes me wonder about you.

[Clanky he/him]

Clanky, I was in bed and asleep some three hours before the cycle ended, and this is the first chance I've had to get back on since then, so you checking that everyone was on just before or just after the cycle change is obviously wrong. I'm in the wrong time zone to be awake for the roll over unless I'm willing to stay up until past 3am (it has happened before, but not on a weekday).

 

By relatively close I was saying within about 5 or 6 hours before roll-over. I was looking for someone that missed like the last 10 or 12 hours of the cycle.

[Bort he/him]

3 hours before hand and 6-7 hours after the rollover. I'd not say either of those were 'relatively' close during a QF game. LG, sure, and MR, maybe, but a quick game, three hours can be a hell of a long time.

 

Edit: Zas, forget what I said about the passenger car. I forgot to submit my bet in my personal game PM. I only did it in the passenger car thread, which means that my bet was never counted. So, the possibility of passenger car hijinks is still a possibility, it just wouldn't have looked that way because I hadn't placed a valid bet.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Bort

[Peng the Just he/him]

OK, two main things I want to comment on.  One is about the kill not going through, which I will get to in a later post.  The other is about the Dow/Neo debate and what it can tell us.  I'll address that one now.

 

Obviously Dow was not CC.  However, I am still suspicious of peng's behavior, for reasons I have already given.  I still want to know the answer to what about any of the Dow/Neo argument pointed more to one over the other.  Zas is welcome to chime in on this as well, since he thinks peng's behavior makes sense.  I don't really care who gives me a good answer to the question, I just want one, and I think it is important enough that I am making a vote early to ensure I get an answer.

 

Peng/Zas, is there anything you can point to that justifies confidence one way and not the other?  If so, I will retract my vote since I have no other reason to suspect peng.  

 

In essence, I feel I must conclude one of the following:

 

1) You are a passenger and it was an honest mistake, perhaps due to prior biases about Dow and/or Neo.  Given previous following of Dow, I would guess that a bias for Dow is more likely than a bias against Neo.

 

2) You are a passenger and there was something else you saw besides what was stated publicly in the thread (or something I somehow missed).  I'm willing to entertain the idea that due to some plan, you had a legitimate reason (from a passenger perspective) to not say something, but I would want a good explanation or convincing argument to that effect.

 

3) You are CC and had reasons from a CC perspective to target Neo over Dow.  Since Dow was a passenger, it couldn't have been to protect Dow.  So, either:

  a... Neo is a passenger.  In that case, you didn't really care who got targeted among Neo and Dow, but it would be of great benefit to push the debate to be between Dow and Neo early in the round so that nothing would coalesce around a fellow CC, or...

  b... Neo is CC.  In that case, the motivation must have been to draw suspicion away from yourself.

 

Please help me to choose among these options, as they have significant ramifications.  In the meantime, I will be writing out my thoughts on the lack of a CC kill.  (For now I consider that less pressing, especially since Alvron has already started a good analysis of that topic.)

 

EDIT: silly letter formatting turned into emotes on me again.

Here's the big reasoning: Neo had nothing on dow. Nothing. Dow had something on Neo, but even before I saw it I was suspicious. Neo was too fast and too confident. 

[Aanwolf]

Here's the big reasoning: Neo had nothing on dow. Nothing. Dow had something on Neo, but even before I saw it I was suspicious. Neo was too fast and too confident. 

 

Here is the problem with that reasoning:  We can go back and look at the order of the posts and see that it is just the opposite of what you claim.

 

First, Dow says here that he strongly suspects Neo because "things don't add up" and he is "highly convinced" Neo is CC.  That is the second vote on Neo and there are no votes on Dow at that point.

 

Then, Neo makes a strong accusation here where he provides an argument with evidence to support his claims.

 

Bort agrees with Neo's argument here, independent evidence that his argument holds some weight.  Note however, that Bort doesn't jump on the vote yet, as he still has other suspicions.

 

Then you ask Neo here if he is confident enough to submit to lynching if he turns out to be wrong.

 

Dow replies first, saying here that is so confident Neo is CC that he will submit to lynching.  He still has not offered evidence, but will explain why later.

 

You respond to this here saying you'll "buy it" and vote for Neo.

 

Then Neo says here that he will submit to lynching.

 

Then you claim here that Neo is more confident than his evidence gives him a right to be.  At this point, Dow still hadn't offered any evidence at all.  Note that this is the same post where you ask Alvron to justify his claim that med-kits can't be used on yourself.

 

Neo explains his confidence here, that Dow started a campaign to lynch him (back with his initial vague statements of being highly convinced that Neo was CC).  This is also where he starts to get suspicious of you for pushing it so hard.

 

At this point, the vote is still 2 to 1 in favor of Neo being lynched.  I find it interesting that you are the only one (besides those mutually accusing eachother) who has jumped on the argument between them so early in the process.  This is when Orlok weighs in here and votes for Dow to tie it up.  Note however, that he reserves the right to change his vote if Dow manages to post a good argument, so he is not nearly as confident as you are.

 

It is only at that point that Dow finally gives an argument here why Neo is CC.  Note that no one switched to vote for Neo after that, while Bridge, Alvron, and myself concluded (after seeing both arguments) that Dow was more likely to be CC than Neo, and Orlok kept his vote on Dow suggesting the same conclusion.

 

Now, in fairness, I will say that as I am finishing up my analysis of Gamma's history, I do see good evidence to suggest Neo, evidence that has me strongly suspect him as CC, now that I have seen it. However, I find it odd that you were sure of the evidence against Neo being better than the evidence against Dow without mentioning anything nearly as strong as what I've seen.  So, even though I think there is good reason (now) to suspect Neo (namely what looks like an effort by Gamma to protect him), it is not irrefutable evidence, and I'm genuinely puzzled by your irrational confidence, especially given multiple chances to explain.  Your explanation is the worst one I could imagine, since it claims you believed things that were the exact opposite of what you should have believed.  I want to vote for Neo after the patterns I've seen, but your behavior now only makes sense to me if:

 

1... You are CC,

2... Neo is innocent,

3... You committed early on Neo to create a bandwagon, and

4... You had no reason to recant later since the vote was kept between two innocent people.  Your behavior polarized the debate between two people that kept the attention away from others.

 

What attention would you want to keep away?  It makes the most sense if there is another mistake that you want to hide.  I find this post by Burnt to be especially telling.  She also made the same mistake that Gamma did, and seems to be trying to cover it up.  And since you later challenged Alvron on the same issue, I have double evidence that you are trying to cover for Burnt.  Sneaky, but effective.  I never would have caught it if I hadn't become suspicious of you due to your irrational behavior.

 

So, I think I have made a clear case for jasonpenguin.  As always, if I have made a mistake here, please point it out.  Personally, I'm willing to admit that I made an error, and I won't call for anyone to submit to lynching to prove their confidence either.

 

EDIT: Spelling only

Edited June 26, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Aanwolf]

A couple more quick points I realize I hadn't stressed enough:

 

When you called out Neo for being too confident, at that point both Neo and Dow had agreed to lynching, so I don't see how you could measure Neo's confidence as greater than Dow's.  And since Dow hadn't provided evidence while Neo had, I don't see how you could judge his "right to be" confident to be less than Dow's.  So, tell me please, how you arrived at the conclusion that Neo was the one who was more confident than he had a right to be.

 

Second, the post where you challenged Alvron's evidence of the rule against buying a med-kit for yourself.  In that post, Alvron had already provided a quote for it.  So challenging that claim seems particularly rash/hasty/reactive to me.  Did you panic at the point you saw Alvron point it out and so not read the rest of his post?

[Aanwolf]

One more note: in the interest of full disclosure, if you do want to see strong evidence against Neo, look at round 4.  Gamma broke a tie vote between Neo and Shallan.  It is the only vote by Gamma I saw that was designed to nudge a delicate balance.  This is exactly the kind of evidence I was looking for in looking for correlations.  So, normally I would call out Neo on it, and we should not forget about it just because penguin is even more suspicious.  If, as I have argued, penguin is CC, then that suggests Neo is innocent.  If that were true, then why would Gamma break a tie vote between Neo and someone we know is innocent?  The only things that I can think of are:

 

1... Shallan was more of a threat to the CC than Neo was.  Justifying this requires examining Shallan's participation compared to Neo's.  The only thing that comes to mind is that Shallan had a lot of money and was intending to bid on the assassin again.  Although she was planning on spending it all that turn, it's possible the CC thought they could outbid her.  The other options is that Shallan was starting to catch on to the CC, so we would want to look at her behavior in the time shortly before Gamma cast the tie-breaking vote.

 

2... Again, like I am suggesting with penguin, Gamma might not have cared which of the two were lynched, but breaking the tie forced the discussion to continue to revolve around them.  Furthermore, if Neo was innocent, that meant that if the pattern were noticed, then it would lead to a false trail.

 

In any case, if for some reason I turn out to be wrong, Neo becomes a solid suspect, and he should be next on the list.