Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Bort . I shall do some analysis later - on my way out of the door to work, but thought I ought to remove my vote from Bort in case I don't get back in time.

[Zas678]

So here's what happened in the passenger car. We have a top number of 11 coins, so we all decide to bet 2 to have some wiggle room. Aanwolf comes up with the idea that we should have no wiggle room so that no one gets greedy. We agree, and I'm the one designated to take the third coin. Someone else either raised to three coins, so we all failed.

 

Here's the list again for people to analyze. There's a good chance that one of these people is a CC. 

 

Bridge Boy

Zas678

Clanky

Neo

Aanwolf

 

The only thing of difference in our betting is that Aanwolf suggested the no wiggle room. Was it so that he didn't have to loose 4 coins instead of 3? I don't know. I'm still suspicious of Neo, and my vote stays on him for now. 

 

EDIT- Some numbers. We now only have 13 passengers, and 3 are likely to die tonight. We have either 4 or 5 CC, so if we're unlucky, tomorrow or the next will be our last cycle. We haven't hit a CC yet, so now we can't miss, or we loose. Hopefully our lynch and Gamma are both CC's. 

[Bort]

Just thought, after rereading my last post, I should probably clarify what the misunderstanding was.

 

Ren set a cap of 8 (y) coins for the day (and yesterday they had 11. Cheapskate conductor). Orlok suggested we each bet 2. Four people, that's a total of 8 coins. As I said earlier, it states in the rules that we should be aiming for less than this number, but Ren has confirmed in the passenger car thread that it is up to and including 8 coins, so it's all good. It wasn't Orlok trying to cheat us, but my understanding of the rules that caused the problem.

[Peng the Just]

So here's what happened in the passenger car. We have a top number of 11 coins, so we all decide to bet 2 to have some wiggle room. Aanwolf comes up with the idea that we should have no wiggle room so that no one gets greedy. 

 

That sounds like an effort to make it cheaper to make everyone lose, Aanwolf.

[Aanwolf]

A question was asked in the buffet car about what should be done there.  I was typing up my thoughts when I remembered that we want to keep the discussion here to get everyone involved (plus there is a specific reason to discuss the strategy for that car in the main group, for reasons I'll explain below).   So, here is my argument:

 

The last time I was in that car (two turns ago) we ended up announcing who we were baking for and allowing for retributive baking.  That reduces the extent to which coin can be moved around.  The way to maximize that is to do a mini-lynch, but the idea of a mini-lynch got unpopular after Metal suggested it and then got shot down. However, given how important it is to generate serious discussion if we are going to get the CC to make mistakes, I think we should consider a mini-lynch again, so I am going to think my way through it here.

 

There are only 13 people left, and we haven't eliminated any CC yet.  I've extended my calculations from last time, and here's what I have: If the car placement is random (comments on this below), then with 3 CC there is a 29.4% chance this car is clean (no CC).  If there are 4 CC, that decreases to 17.6%.  If there are 5 CC, it is only 9.8%.  If there are 6 CC, it is 4.9%.

 

Now, since people can buy a car placement, car occupants are not totally random.  How does this change things?  If an innocent were to spend coin to choose their car, what would they choose?  Perhaps the passenger car to make money, although it would cost 2 coins to get there and there is a risk it won't pay out.  Going to the caboose doesn't make much sense either.  The vault car does, though that is expensive and couldn't be maintained.  The buffet car can't make you cash if you spend two to get here, and it probably won't net you anything, and risks losing more if there is a mini-lynch.

 

On the other hand, if someone is CC, where would they go?  If it is their turn to make a kill, then they want to avoid the caboose, so they may buy a spot elsewhere to avoid that car.  The cheapest way to do that is to go to the passenger car or the buffet car.  In the buffet car, they might risk a mini-lynch, but since that hasn't been happening (at least not on the turn I was there, and no public discussion of results of it otherwise) that lessens the concern for a mini-lynch.  On the other hand, some of the public discussion has suggested more aggressive moves on our part, so it may still be a worry.  A CC could go to the vault car, but that is expensive and really only helps if they are worried about being assassinated, or they have the kill and are betting the target they really want is going to the vault car (which seems pretty risky, since if no one else goes there, they lose their kill).  I guess that could be hedged by having no kill cast suspicion on the person who is role-blocked, but it will also generate discussion about who is in the vault car (which we really should be trying to determine.... I'll get on that soon... so much to do...) and will likely come back to bite them.  That leaves the passenger car.  Now, that seems a good choice for someone who wants to avoid the caboose, since it offers a good chance to recover the spent cash, or alternatively the opportunity to ruin the gamble there (another thing we need to figure out - who did that last turn... that is info we need to analyze...)

 

So, on the whole, I think almost everyone will leave it random due to the cost if nothing else, with the exception of a CC who has the turn to make the kill, in which case the passenger car makes the most sense, but the buffet car is a decent choice as well.  So, I think random placement is a decent bet.  We *could* consider the chances the CC coordinate all of their placement, but that would be hard without more PMs and would get really expensive really quickly and it's not clear to me how much benefit that would yield.

 

That means that the numbers I've given should be pretty good, and there is a very good chance there is at least one CC in the car (with similar chances for the other main cars).  If there is at least one CC in the car, and we believe a mini-lynch discussion has a decent chance of exposing CC over other passengers, then that is a good reason to try a mini-lynch, or at the very least, to have a discussion with the intent to mini-lynch (applying a phrase I vaguely remember from the main thread, though I don't recall who said it).

 

However, we also need to consider the possibility that there are multiple CC in the car.  It would improve the chances of a random mini-lynch hitting the CC, but we are trying to make that non-random anyway, and the main point is discussion to reveal CC.  On the other hand, with only four occupants, if more than one is CC, then that gives the CC the chance to combine their votes to mini-lynch an innocent person.  So, we have to take that risk into account.  However, combining votes that way is risky as it can reveal connections between them.  When they can get a kill out of it, that might be worth it, but for just a mini-lynch it seems to be less of a payout.  Still, that is a risk we should consider before deciding to actually mini-lynch someone.  But it doesn't give us any reason not to have a discussion with the intent to mini-lynch especially if we reserve the option to back out of it at the end.  And that strategy makes a coordination by the CC much more risky, while still giving us all the benefit of aggressive forced discussion.

 

If we do have aggressive forced discussion, then it should happen out here in the main car.  Not only does that make it public, but it makes it harder to manipulate, and it allows us to combine our reasoning to make a better decision.  So, I propose we have a discussion here (using all the things we want to discuss, like the results of last round, patterns, etc) with the intent to mini-lynch someone in the buffet car. Because of how important that is (and because at this point it is very unlikely any particular car is free of CC), I am going to reveal the occupants of my car:

 

Gamma, Clanky, Burnt Spaghetti, Aanwolf

 

So, any suggestions on who to mini-lynch?  Or, any good arguments on why not to at least give it strong consideration?

[Aanwolf]

That sounds like an effort to make it cheaper to make everyone lose, Aanwolf.

 

I did consider the risk of making it cheaper to lose in my post to the main thread, so if that was my motivation, I pointed it out for everyone to see.  (To be fair, I had not thought of it until after my post in the car thread, so it doesn't appear in that post, but wanted it out there once it was mentioned, so it is there in the main thread.)  So, consider the possibilities:

 

1... I am CC as you suggest.  In this case, my motivation would be to make it cheaper to make everyone lose.  But only by a single coin, as the wiggle room that round was a single coin.

 

2... I am not CC.  My argument for removing the wiggle room is to make a failed bet more suspicious.  By removing the chance that we could accidentally ruin the bet through "innocent" greediness, it guarantees that a failure generates relevant information.  No one but CC has a reason to ruin the bet.

 

Now, why would a CC ruin the bet after my argument makes such an action even more suspicious?  Because I guarantee you that only a CC would do that.  I can think of two reasons:

 

A... It costs the passengers more coins than it costs the CC.  Since the CC know who the others are, this implies that there were fewer CC in the car than passengers.  More than that, since it costs the CC extra to force a failed bet (2 coins extra when there is 1 coin wiggle room) then the CC would have to weigh the extra cost when deciding whether or not to do that, so that should be taken into account when we estimate how many CC were in the car.

 

B... And here is where I cast suspicion on myself, unfortunately.  But we have to be logical if we are going to discover the CC, and logic can be picked apart and analyzed much more objectively than reason, so I believe in principle that this should benefit the innocents more than anyone else, so here goes:  A possible CC strategy would be to recognize the argument I just made (A) and to then choose to force a failed bet in order to draw attention away from that car having a lot of CC in it. So, you have to consider how likely it is that someone would have thought that through.  I admit that it is something that I could have thought through, and I think I have demonstrated that by the types of arguments I have been making.  That means it is possible others could have as well, even if they haven't demonstrated that type of personality/strategy publicly in this game.

 

But to evaluate the possibilty I had contrived something so involved, you have to consider what I would have gained by making my argument for no wiggle room as part of executing that more complicated strategy.  Again, argument 1 applies, that I could be trying to save myself one coin.  That is not much.  However, it could have been worth more than one coin if I was worried that another CC might try to ruin the bet as well (remember that we are now on a line of reasoning that assumes there are multiple CC in the car), though in that case I would have been better to stay silent (again, making all the assumptions this line of reasoning requires) since I could have let another CC ruin the bet without drawing attention to myself.  However, this suggests a possible further benefit, in that I could have been trying to coordinate CC actions.  CC have limited ability to communicate to each other (though with how important it is, PMs are relatively cheap for them) so they might be tempted to organize publicly in such a way.  That does carry its own risks, though, as it leaves the organization attempts open for everyone to analyze later. A final reason for using such a complicated plan, one that is particularly sneaky and so in that sense fits such a plan well, would have been to try to be able to later leverage argument 2 in order to give more weight to argument A.  Again, that is risky, due to the extra attention it generates, but I could have been willing to risk it.

 

So, there is my reasoning.  If someone wants to suggest further possibilities, feel free to do so.  I have laid it all bare, even what casts suspicion on myself, so that it is open for review.  I believe that is the best for promoting clear thinking, which we must commit to in order to have a better chance of finding the CC.  Unfortunately, this also makes me a target for the CC.  But together with other arguments I intend to make this cycle, I don't think there is any avoiding that.  So, I plan to get all of my reasoning out there on this topic and on several others, so that if the CC kill me at least I've shared what I've thought through before it happens, and hopefully suggested a good way forward for after I die.

 

So, please, discuss...

 

EDIT: Formatting only. I originally used parenthesis after the argument numbers/letters, as in 1).  However, the system turned argument B into a sunglasses emote, so I changed the format to ellipses...

Edited June 25, 2015 by Aanwolf

[neodymium]

Guys we are being duped!!!  I am 99% sure that Dow is CC.  Let's look at the past five days:

 

Day1:

Votes for Shallan

Says false info about the CC to look like he doesn't understand the coinshots – They don’t know who each other are:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-5

 

Day2:

Votes for Gamma

Changes it to himself

 

Day3:

Votes for Clanky

Gets called out, but doesn’t respond

 

Day4:

Posts 1 minute after Zas to start a bandwagon on me.  FInally after most of us are dead, he comes active and starts a bandwagon lynch.

 

Day5:

Joins Zas again to try and lynch another innocent villager.

 

Dow has not contributed anything to the game, period.  He hasn't jumped on any of the voting bandwagons until he knew that there were enough villagers gone that he wouldn't be called out.  He has been the perfect member of the CC, quietly avoiding too much attention until he feels safe enough to come out and stir up lynches.  He needs to be our number one target today. Dow 

[Bort]

Actually, Neo, I believe you. But, I also think the same about Alvron, so I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

[Peng the Just]

Guys we are being duped!!!  I am 99% sure that Dow is CC.  Let's look at the past five days:

 

Day1:

Votes for Shallan

Says false info about the CC to look like he doesn't understand the coinshots – They don’t know who each other are:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-5

 

Day2:

Votes for Gamma

Changes it to himself

 

Day3:

Votes for Clanky

Gets called out, but doesn’t respond

 

Day4:

Posts 1 minute after Zas to start a bandwagon on me.  FInally after most of us are dead, he comes active and starts a bandwagon lynch.

 

Day5:

Joins Zas again to try and lynch another innocent villager.

 

Dow has not contributed anything to the game, period.  He hasn't jumped on any of the voting bandwagons until he knew that there were enough villagers gone that he wouldn't be called out.  He has been the perfect member of the CC, quietly avoiding too much attention until he feels safe enough to come out and stir up lynches.  He needs to be our number one target today. Dow 

How confident are you? If he ends up being innocent, will you put your neck up for lynching?

[dowanx]

I am so confident that Neo is a CC that if he isn't I volunteer to be lynched the next cycle.  I am in the middle of writing a long post in response to Neo's... will come back with why I am this confident.

[Peng the Just]

Hmm... I'll buy it. aanwolf neo.

 

EDIT: I'd love to stay and see your explanation, but I have to go for the day. 

Edited June 25, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[neodymium]

How confident are you? If he ends up being innocent, will you put your neck up for lynching?

 

Of course I will!  I am 99.9999999999999% sure he is!  He will say the same thing though, because even if he gets lynched tomorrow, if I get lynched today that's one more villager down.  Enough of us gone and the cc will be able to do whatever they want.  Get ready for a manipulative, misleading post from Dow.  Mine was short, simple, and straight to the point.  Can't argue with facts.  DOW

[Alvron]

Alvron has not been nearly as helpful as I feel he could be.  Votes for Meta and Gamma, two experienced and dangerous players that a CC would love to get rid of as passengers. Also voted for himself for the coins yet refrained from voting for anyone last station. Also worth noticing that both the players he voted for were the targets of an assassination. What to take from that I do not know yet. However I could see it as a way for Alv to tell the CCs who he would like targeted with the assassination since they can only communicate with the killer. 

 

Also when voting for Gamma used reasoning of the only reason not to vote being rich already or having comrades to supply him with coin. Now the being rich statement doesn't interest me much but the other option he gave does. It is misleading since coins cannot be donated in this game. That means that your "comrades" can't donate coins if you have none of your own. Now this could just be a mistake or the result of forgetting that rule. However it could also be intentionally misleading and be used as a future reasoning to lynch non-voters which would be could be used by the CCs to cast suspicion on innocents. Also interesting to note that as I said earlier he didn't vote last station. Does this mean he is instead being supplied with coins by his Comrades?

I placed that part about being able to give coins to others as bait.  I have found that Eliminators tend to know almost all the rules while those that are innocent only focus on those that apply to themselves.  I did have a plan where I was going to slip up on some rules and see who corrected me as a way of seeing who knew the rules the best but was unable to due to reasons I shall attempt to explain at the end of my post.  As such I firmly believe that Clanky is a CC.

 

I think you might be reading into that write-up a little bit too literally, as I bought myself a med-kit, because I was being publicly called to be assassinated. >.>  I honestly thought Shallan was for sure a CC there at the end, though. so I'm kind of back to square one now, although I'm not too long for this world regardless. I can still all force you to make me a last meal, however!

You lie.  Ren has already stated that you can't use a med-kit on yourself.

 

Also, Medical Kits cannot be used on yourself.  I don't think it's possible to perform first aid on yourself when you're suffering from fatal wounds. 

Which means that you, Gamma are a CC and you posted that so everyone stops calling out who prolonged your life.  However since you are going to die at the end of the day there is no point in voting for you.

 

 

Now then, for my absences this game.  As some people know I am manic depressive and couple of days ago I went from manic to depressive.  The sudden shift from planning to take over the world (no joke.  I actually have a plan to conquer the world.) to trying to find a reason to get out of bed is difficult to shrug off.  During that time I find it hard to really care about posting/playing these games (or doing anything really).  I have passed that stage and am now just generally depressed so I can turn my attention back to other things.  Hopefully I will survive this round and the passengers will pull out a victory.

[Peng the Just]

Of course I will!  I am 99.9999999999999% sure he is!  He will say the same thing though, because even if he gets lynched tomorrow, if I get lynched today that's one more villager down.  Enough of us gone and the cc will be able to do whatever they want.  Get ready for a manipulative, misleading post from Dow.  Mine was short, simple, and straight to the point.  Can't argue with facts.  DOW

Here's the thing, Neo. You are more confident in this than you have any right to be, based on the above evidence. It's something, that's for sure, but it's very far from conclusive. Why, based on that alone are you almost 100% certain? your adamance just makes me more suspicious of you right now. 

 

Edit:

 

Ren has already stated that you can't use a med-kit on yourself.

 

do you have a source handy for this?

Edited June 25, 2015 by jasonpenguin

[neodymium]

I am that certain, because I know with certainty that I am a villager, so for Dow to take this much of a campaign against me, can only mean that he is CC.  I hope you are CC peng, because you are voting away the chances of the villagers to win the CC right now.  Also, Alv, I hope you feel better friend!  This is just a game, so don't feel bad if you can't spend adequate time here right now.  I'm assuming you aren't CC, because that would be a low move for the CC to play.  Anyways, get feeling better!

 

EDIT: grammar

Edited June 25, 2015 by neodymium

[Alvron]

do you have a source handy for this?

I do indeed.  Here.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I am happy to vote for Downax this cycle - with Neo's suspicions, and just a general sense that something is a bit off.

I am willing to reconsider though of Downax's post is sufieciently explanatory - I shall be on for most of the remainde of the cycle.

[Aanwolf]

I am that certain, because I know with certainty that I am a villager, so for Dow to take this much of a campaign against me, can only mean that he is CC.  I hope you are CC peng, because you are voting away the chances of the villagers to win the CC right now.  Also, Alv, I hope you feel better friend!  This is just a game, so don't feel bad if you can't spend adequate time here right now.  I'm assuming you aren't CC, because that would be a low move for the CC to play.  Anyways, get feeling better!

 

EDIT: grammar

 

Personally, I would only find it a low move it if weren't true.  And presumably, the unfortunate circumstances are as likely to happen to a CC as to a passenger.  Please note that this is not an attempt to cast suspicion on Alvron, I just have a compulsion to point out faulty logic (and hope others do the same to me if I make a mistake).  So, to be clear, I assume Alvron is telling the truth (and my sympathies - my wife is bipolar, so I have a sense of how hard it can be) but I'm not going to take that as evidence of innocence.

[Metacognition]

Personally, I would only find it a low move it if weren't true.  And presumably, the unfortunate circumstances are as likely to happen to a CC as to a passenger.  Please note that this is not an attempt to cast suspicion on Alvron, I just have a compulsion to point out faulty logic (and hope others do the same to me if I make a mistake).  So, to be clear, I assume Alvron is telling the truth (and my sympathies - my wife is bipolar, so I have a sense of how hard it can be) but I'm not going to take that as evidence of innocence.

 

I think we covered this in the Fair Play Rules, but people shouldn't be lying about their Real Life situations in an attempt to appear more innocent in the game or gain sympathy. I know that I, for one, do not want to have to doubt whether someone's grandma really died or if they're just saying that to gain sympathy in the game. I want to be able to give said person the heartfelt condolences that they deserve in that type of instance. So, you shouldn't have to assume that Alv is telling the truth in that right (and he has made mention of his condition before).

 

That said, you are correct that Real Life events can happen to Eliminators just as easily as they happen to villagers. The way that I deal with that is to just remember that it's just a game and that, whether Eliminator or Villager, there's still a person on the other side of the screen and while they may be trying to kill me, they still deserve my sympathy. 

 

I'm not saying that you were even trying to imply all that Aanwolf; you just provided me the perfect opportunity to remind all of our newer players of this!

[dowanx]

As promised here is my post.  It is two parts first about neo's post saying I am a CC and second why he is a CC.

 

Neo's post:

 

Guys we are being duped!!!  I am 99% sure that Dow is CC.  Let's look at the past five days:

 

Day1:

Votes for Shallan

Says false info about the CC to look like he doesn't understand the coinshots – They don’t know who each other are:

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-5

 

Day2:

Votes for Gamma

Changes it to himself

 

Day3:

Votes for Clanky

Gets called out, but doesn’t respond

 

Day4:

Posts 1 minute after Zas to start a bandwagon on me.  FInally after most of us are dead, he comes active and starts a bandwagon lynch.

 

Day5:

Joins Zas again to try and lynch another innocent villager.

 

Dow has not contributed anything to the game, period.  He hasn't jumped on any of the voting bandwagons until he knew that there were enough villagers gone that he wouldn't be called out.  He has been the perfect member of the CC, quietly avoiding too much attention until he feels safe enough to come out and stir up lynches.  He needs to be our number one target today. Dow 

 

Day 1: I was discussing game mechanics while you were doing what exactly to help the village?  As for me misreading some of the rules I think it is a fairly common occurrence to get some of the rules wrong ;p  It has happened to almost everyone here.

 

Day 2: I am not sure why this is suspicious as plenty of others have done this themselves.

 

Day 3: When do I get called out?  Someone says I am quiet in the PM and I responded in the PM... How or why this is suspicious is beyond me.

 

Day 4: This by no means was a bandwagon as it resulted in a tie vote ;p  And yes I 100% think your a cultist and when I find someone I have strong evidence against I go after them.

 

Day 5: Your not innocent me going after you is the exact opposite of suspicious.  

 

 

Why Neo is a CC:

 

The first and foremost reason Neo is a CC is due to his change in play style from past games.  He rarely is this active or posts nearly as much as he does.  Over the cycles he has posted about 12 times which is a much higher then other games.  This is just not how he plays and the increase of activity points to him being a CC.

 

Next is the quality of his posts.  Almost half of his posts have been poke votes.  For reference you can them here:

 

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-3#entry282116

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-4#entry282260

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-12#entry283488

 

Poke votes can be helpful, but it seems like he is doing so many so he can say he is adding value when in reality it has done almost nothing.  This seems like a strategy to try and seem not only active, but "helpful" without being helpful.  This reeks of a Eliminator to me.

 

The only post of somewhat relevance is this one:

 

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-7#entry282754

 

but then he says he is going to review and never comes back to post his suspicions.

 

He does that again here

 

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/31944-quick-fix-8-the-steelway-express/page-11#entry283431

 

and then again doesn't come back with any reasoning.

 

In fact I think the only time he has really brought up any suspicion was on me AFTER I called him out for being a CC.  This reeks of being a CC as well.

 

He has been crying victim that bandwagons are forming on him last minute, but I have yet to find where a true bandwagon has happened to him.  

 

Shenanigans happened in the Passenger car cycle 4 and neo was there.  Yet another piece albeit small that Neo is a CC.

 

Not a single vote of his has helped the village except the vote he used when he was up on the chopping block:

 

 

Station 4:

 

Quote

Vindication (4): Jain, Grind, Everton Slade, Neo, Old Wolf

Neo (4): Zane Tevison, Vindication, Leif Erikeller, Dow

Grind (1): Locke

Doctor McNinja (1): Bort

Locke (1): Doctor McNinja

Leif (1): Penga

 

 

Station 3:

 

Quote

Seixa (5): Jain, Grind, Locke, Penga, Old Wolf, Met-al

Met-al (4): Seixa, Vindication, Everton Slade, Nails

Bortholemew the Blind (1): Zane

Locke (1): Symmer Ghetti

Vindication (1): Senn Conrad-Tekiel

Nails (1): Bortholemew the Blind

Jain (1): Neo

Penga (1): Leif Erikeller

Doctor McNinja (1): Dow

 

Station Two:

 

Quote

 

Vote Tally:

Mennet Farrsolin (3): Zane Tevison, Symmer Ghetti, Miss Evyn

Met-al (2): Jain, Grind

Seixa (2): Seixa, Bortholemew the Blind

Locke (2): Neo, Mennet Farrsolin

Penga (1): Senn Conrad-Tekiel

Jain (1): Locke

Vindication (1): Vindication

Doctor McNinja (1): Everton Slade

Neo (1): Doctor McNinja

Nails (1): Nails

Leif Erikeller (1): Leif Erikeller

Dow (1): Dow

Old Wolf (0): Old Wolf

 

Station One:

 

 

Quote

 

 

The Pooh without a Name (3): Senn Conrad-Tekiel, Silent Man, Old Wolf

Mennet Farrsolin (3): Zane Tevison, Miss Evyn, Locke, Bortholemew the Blind

Leif Erikeller (2): Seixa, Penga

Grind (2): Nails, Met-al

Vindication (2): Grind, Dow

Met-al (2): Mennet Farrsolin, Leif Erikeller

Nails (1): Jain

Dow (1): Symmer Ghetti

Seixa (1): Doctor McNinja

Bortolemew the Blind (1): Neo

 

 

Another small piece that he is a CC.

 

His willingness to be role blocked is actually a hindrance to the village as Clanky so aptly pointed out.  Another small piece that he is a CC.

 

His attack on me after I called him out.  Neo you were the one to first post a large post trying to shift suspicion onto me.  This is another piece that you are a CC.

 

There is more, but sadly I have to log for the next couple hours ;/  I will try to get back on and post more.

 

BTW sorry for grammar etc.  I have to log and can't proofread.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

I have to say I agree with the suspicion on Dow, having thought about the same thing earlier. for this reason I'm putting my vote on you Dow

Edited June 25, 2015 by Metacognition
fixing color code

[Elithanathile]

Sorry to jump into the discussion so late, but I've been looking over the posts, and I'm voting for Dow as well. Seems to be posting to post, not to try and weed out CC. And I saw someone voted for Aanwolf, because they were suspicious of what happened in the passenger car, and I can tell you that his proposed plan was intended so that the passengers would get more coins, which helps us weed out the CC's. I do understand that someone went over on the amount, so nobody got the money, but I don't know who that was, and I seriously doubt that it was Aanwolf, due to his post. The post that I saw accuses him of wanting to make it cheaper to go over, but at where the limit was, it would only cost 1 coin more, and I don't see a CC posting and drawing attention to themselves that much, just for it to be 1 coin cheaper. I am not advocating for Aanwolf, and if I see something suspicious, I will draw attention to it, I am merely attempting to give some more information on the situation in the passenger car last round.

[Zas678]

I'm still going Neo. Those points aren't strong enough, and my suspicions only grow with the fact that he was in the Passenger car last round. 

[Aanwolf]

Thank you for posting Meta, I totally agree with you.  I hope I wasn't misunderstood by anyone here.

 

Alvron, good catch on Gamma's mistake.  I don't have enough time to do it now, but someone please remember (in case I am killed by the CC tonight) to look at patterns of Gamma's votes and others who are still alive.  That could reveal something important.  It is part of what I have been working on, but it is taking longer than I thought, and I've been pulled away from here enough that I haven't finished it yet.  But narrowing it down to a known CC should make the analysis go much faster.

 

Dow, I respect your argument, though the mention of there not being a "true" bandwagon doesn't on the face of it match up with the tied vote for Neo last round.  I guess a tie isn't a bandwagon, but I'd be scared too.  On the other hand, I'm not convinced by Neo's arguments against you either.  As far as I'm concerned, it just sounds like two people who don't want to be eliminated having reactions escalate in response to being a focus of suspicion.  I don't like how sure either of you seem to be given the evidence, which is good, but not that good.

 

However, I am suspicious of jasonpenguin's vote, and like last time (though that didn't work out so well then, I hope it does now), your response to Dow's accusation this cycle was quick and with no justification.  The "I'll buy it" line makes an argument seem plausible without having to provide any real justification.  Furthermore, at that point, there was no argument, just a strong suspicion with a promise to post more later (which Dow did).  It sounds like an attempt to either target someone you know is innocent or to pull votes away from someone you know is CC.

 

You call out Neo for being overconfident yet you were the one who upped the ante by asking people to put their own head on the chopping block if they are wrong.  Dow and Neo both responded quickly to that, but Dow was first (even though he wasn't the one you asked) and that swayed your vote immediately.  In the face of that kind of pressure, anyone would risk their own neck to save themselves for a turn (since either way, their side buys one more turn and otherwise the other side takes you out now).  So again, why does that tell against Neo but not against Dow?

 

Later, your missing the fact that Alvron already gave a source for his info indicates sloppiness at a stage in the game where the CC are increasingly likely to mess up (as in Gamma's mistake).  You have been all over the place this cycle.

 

Given the fact that I don't think there is so much weight either way in the Dow vs Neo fight, your several posts pushing for one particular direction in that debate, without any legitimate argument on your part as far as I can tell, are very suspicious to me.  I won't go so far as to say you have to be in league with Dow, but it just seems reckless, so either you know something we don't, or you are getting disturbingly irrational, and neither is good for the passengers.

 

In the case of Neo and Dow, they are under a lot of pressure because of their mutual accusations, so I can understand some bravado/overconfidance.  What about that argument threatens you so much to provoke a similar emotional reaction?

[Aanwolf]

It appears that the Dow/Neo race is tied, and in the time remaining, it is unlikely that jasonpenguin will get the lynch vote.  Unfortunately, if the Dow/Neo vote is the vote that matters, penguin's behavior is the tipping point for me. I see that Bort was tentatively siding with Neo, but that may not coalesce in to an actual vote by the end of the cycle.  As I believe Metal pointed out earlier, at this stage, votes that are isolated don't do much good, so I guess I'm going to have to vote for Dowanx.

 

I don't want to leave it tied, particularly considering that Gamma is a known CC and still has a vote even if he will die at the end of the round.  At this point, sitting on the fence only puts the votes in the hands of the CC.