Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Metacognition he/him]

Okay, so I'm still looking through everything else and while I realized that you weren't the one I was thinking of Phat, I ran across something far more interesting IMO that I would like to have an explanation for. 

 

First, let's take a look at what we know:

• We know that the CCs know who each other are. 
• We know that they know the order in which they get their kills
• We know that there are likely somewhere between 4-5 of them most likely.
• We know that they only get one PM and that it is sent to the one making the kill. 
• We know that it's only been 3 cycles. 

What's this tell us? It means that the CCs can't have come up with a formulated game plan without assistance. That some of them haven't even been contacted by their fellow CCs because they haven't gotten the kill yet. As such, the best that they've been able to do is to tell each other what their own, personal plan is and to relay information about who's in what cars, what's been going on, recommendations on who to kill and such. But they only get the one PM. 

 

This is important because, if they send it too early, they won't be able to add to it later. If they send it too late, then their recommendations and information might not be relevant by the time the chosen killer gets it; they might have already made their decision and signed off for the day. 

 

I bring all this up for three reasons: 

1- We're not going to be seeing a unified front from the CCs until far later into the game, if at all. They just don't have the means to plan anything big like that. 

2- They're going to be more prone to making mistakes here early.

3- While the Medical Services are almost completely unnecessary for the CCs, there is an item up for grabs that is far more powerful for the CCs than for us.

 

Anyone sent out any mail? 

 

For us, we can send an anonymous message to a player that we don't even know if they're good or not yet (and we have no roles to find that out), so IMO, we don't have that much need of the message system. The CCs on the other hand, that is their only way to get more communication going between them and they would be able to add in some kind of identifying factor to their regular message to the killer for the cycle so that they could figure out who the message was sent from. It's their only way to extend their communication.

 

Now, Phat. You said that you have 8 coins right? By my count, you should have 9... 

You started with 1 and doubled it. That, plus the 2 from voting and posting during cycle 1, and you should have had 4. You then doubled 3 of your coins and voted and posted again in cycle 2; thus giving you a total of 6 won coins, the 2 from posting, and 1 left over from the first day. 

 

So what happened to that additional coin, Phat? Postal Service only costs one coin and you seemed pretty sure that you only had 3. Also, could anyone that was in the Passenger car with Phat during cycle 2 confirm what he said about his coin total there? 

 

Also, you're leveraging yourself to gain even more coins this cycle by picking up any slack in the Passenger car again. As I said before, I think that the CCs would want as many coins as possible so that they can keep control of the assassination.

 

Add to this that I find it, like Shallan did, that you were incredibly empathetic of Adimir last cycle. The only people who are typically that confident are Eliminators. 

 

---

 

The person that I was thinking you were, Phat, was Seonid. As I stated above, the only people who tend to have a good idea of someone's guilt or not is the Eliminators, so I am very wary when I see someone defending someone else, even if that person is myself! After all, what better way to try to make yourself seem innocent than to defend someone that's innocent? Seonid wound up defending me on the very first cycle; when we had absolutely no reason to suspect one person over another and then did so again on the second day. 

 

I'm also wary of Leif for pulling out the, "I told you so" bit this cycle. The only way you could know for sure is if you were a CC, so either no, you didn't tell us so because you were just making a guess as well or yes, you really did tell us so, but only because you have information that only the CCs could have. 

 

I'm still going over everything, but Neo, Shallan, Zas, and Burnt are people that I'm not too suspicious of right now. 

Edited June 23, 2015 by Metacognition

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Popping in just for a second to say one thing: Storm it! This is the first and only game I've ever missed!!     

[leiftinspace he/him]

I'm also wary of Leif for pulling out the, "I told you so" bit this cycle. The only way you could know for sure is if you were a CC, so either no, you didn't tell us so because you were just making a guess as well or yes, you really did tell us so, but only because you have information that only the CCs could have.

I'm still going over everything, but Neo, Shallan, Zas, and Burnt are people that I'm not too suspicious of right now.

Sorry, i guess it was a bit cocky. I didn't come right out and say he was innocent, because i didn't know, but i thought i had made it clear that i felt it was very likely he was considering his promise to go to the caboose and be role blocked. Still probably ill advised to say "i told you so" though, i admit, and i'll refrain from doing so in the future.

[phattemer]

Meta, if you look back at cycle 1, you'll see that I didn't really post anything game-relevant. I would have bet 4 if I'd had 4. I indeed have 8. Also, I may have been confident, but I was just trying to make people see both sides of the issue. I realized while writing that that it would seem very much like I was a CC, but I thought it was worth it to stop a bandwagon without a horse. While Adamir may have defended himself, what other thing did he do that was suspicious? So basically, we lynched someone for saying we shouldn't lynch them. Yay! Let's lynch Meta next, by that logic! Or me!

By the way, we actually ARE lynching Meta right now! Yeah, let's NOT do that. Why why why why why why why why why why why why?

I'll put a vote on someone who already has 1 or 2, because there is no reason to lynch Metacognition. Peng has 1(2?), I think I have 2, and so does Alvron. When it comes to lynching, I generally don't like the idea of an inactive, but it's almost always better than a highly active, eh?

Edited June 23, 2015 by phattemer

[Metacognition he/him]

Meta, if you look back at cycle 1, you'll see that I didn't really post anything game-relevant. I would have bet 4 if I'd had 4. I indeed have 8.

 

Oh really? Then I'd like some clarification from our GM on what classifies as Game Relevant.

 

Because when I look at this (instigating a lynch discussion I'd think would be game relevant) and this (defending yourself from suspicion would seem game relevant) and this (switching votes to put pressure on someone) and this (revealing information about your group PM), all of that seems like it's game relevant. 

 

Looking back through the Google Doc that Ren set up, he said that the post has to be "relevant to discussion." It would not make sense to me for those to be counted as not relevant, but if Ren would be willing to clarify?

[Shallan she/her]

Meta, Phat, I'd tend to agree with you both. But why are you jumping on someone who posted the number of coins they had, rather than someone who didn't?

[Metacognition he/him]

Because their total doesn't add up. I just want an explanation for that that makes sense and his argument that he didn't get one for not posting anything game relevant doesn't make sense. 

[phattemer]

Yay someone agrees with me! Meta, I posted my coins. I don't believe anybody else did. If I was going to lie about it, don't you think I would be halfway intelligent enough to not make it obvious in the thread I was lying? I haven't bought anything yet, but I would be interested in knowing how many coins you have...

[Metacognition he/him]

I have 6 and I still don't believe that you didn't just slip up there. I will wait until I hear from Ren on what qualifies as a relevant post. 

[Peng the Just he/him]

meta has a point. I'll put my vote on Phattemer for now.

[phattemer]

...thanks peng. Has anyone considered bidding for the assassin so the CCs can't get it? One could always set him to target the lynchee. Meta, you will see. You will see the light. You will see the light of truth. You will see the light of truth at the end of the tunnel in a happy place.

But anyway, peng, do you mind taking that vote off until Meta has confirmed that I lied or slipped up? I will happily do the same for you.

[Shallan she/her]

Well, that just made it sound like you did lie/slip up and are waiting for the confirmation.

Here is my coin total, right now:

Began with 4(money runs in the family)

Gambled 4, got 1 for a relevant post I believe? I didn't vote cycle 1.

Had 9 at beginning of cycle 2, in the buffet car. Nobody made me a cake. ( ) I made one for Bort, 2 for relevance + voting, and this cycle I began with 12 in the Caboose.

Phattemer, you mentioned someone bidding for the Assassin. Do you want me to? I can spare 9-12 coins, and you said a passenger should, so...

*tap* *tap*

*static*

ATTENTION PASSENGERS OF THE STEELWAY EXPRESS. ONE VINDICATION WILL BE REQUIRING THE SERVICES OF THE ASSASSIN. THE PAY WILL BE 10 COINS. NO COINSHOT CLAN NEED APPLY. THAT WILL BE ALL.

*static*

I will be bidding 10 coins for the Assassin, and I'll set her on whoever I think is suspicious, or whoever gets second, or whoever wins the Assassin vote. If you want to vote for me to set the Assassin on someone, do it like THIS.

[phattemer]

Let's go for PENGUIN, since either me or Meta is likely to be lynched at this point, not that that is a good idea at all! Please, don't lynch Meta.

 

This feels absurdly like the Sorting Ceremony.

And the victim, hmm, got a bit of violence in there, better be HEDGELPUFFELHOGGEL.

Edited June 23, 2015 by phattemer

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Thank you for your response, Meta. Phat, you are defending yourself very... emotionally. You're reminding me of how I was in LG12, where I was Gyorn. 

 

Don't have enough time to post my own evidence. Why do we only have 24 hours in a day?   

[Bort he/him]

Ok, well the only person who hasn't responded to my prompts is Alvron. Meta, you're off the hook for now.

[Zas678 he/him]

Sorry Bort. I'm not very suspicious of you, but I'm not sure who else to vote for, and I don't think you have a vote. 

[Alvron]

Ok, well the only person who hasn't responded to my prompts is Alvron. Meta, you're off the hook for now.

I haven't responded as I haven't been on.  This is the first chance I have had to get online since I posted last cycle that I was going to be busy.

 

I shall hold off on voting for the moment until I've gone through everything I've missed.  However I think revealing how many coins someone has is a bad idea.  For instance Shallan revealed that they have 12 coins and will be bidding 10 on the assassin.  If a CC has higher they now know how much to bid to insure they get it and may send the assassin after Shallan to make sure they can't get the next one.

[Metacognition he/him]

Current Vote Count:

 

Phat (4)- Gamma, Meta, Peng, Jain

Alv (3)- Neo, Phat, Bort

Meta (1)- Bridge Boy,

Peng (1)- Leif

Orlock (1)- Burnt

Clanky (1)- Dow

Dow (1)- Aanwolf

Bort (1)- Zas

 

I'm going to throw my vote for the assassin to either BORT or JAIN, with Jain being my main concern. When I went back through, at the beginning of cycle 2, both of them were extremely confused about how the CC's kill worked. Typically, that wouldn't be a red flag in and of itself, but that exact question was asked and answered in thread during the first cycle... multiple times. After being clarified two different times, it seems like it could be a CC pretending to be naive. Jain was the first to bring up the idea, thus why he's more of a suspect to me than Bort. Bort might have just gone along and didn't realize it until it was clarified again.

 

I am not as confident about these as I am about Phat though, so feel free to ignore it. I'm just getting them out there in case I can't make it back on before rollover. 

[Shallan she/her]

Well, Meta, I just don't really see why you're so sure about Phat. Did you get a confirmation from Renegade yet? If not, it just seems like you have a big lack of evidence, and wasn't that exactly what he was saying last cycle with Adamir? And we all know what happened with Adamir...

I'll put a vote on Alv, because I haven't been in any real contact with them, but I am pretty sure Phat's a passenger.

 

So am I supposed to kill Jain, then? Or Bort? I'll go with Jain.

Sorry!

Edited June 23, 2015 by Shallan

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ok, sorry for my absence for most of this cycle.

I have made this point in our carriage, but thought I should moot the idea here. I propose we cease to hold discussions within carriages, but instead hold all discussions within the cycle's thread.

This has two main implications. The first if these is it alleviates the current situation in which lack of exposure to players outside of one's carriage prevents the gathering of information and the formation of suspicions, making it harder for us to identify Eliminators, and easier for them to hide.

I have encountered that situation in our current carriage - and it has implications upon the effectiveness of the function of said carriage.

The second implication is that it does allow the eliminators to know which carriages all players are in. However, eliminators are not stupid - and will almost certainly he sending lists of players in to the player making the kill anyway - so the consensus of withholding the information from the thread, rather than restricting access of eliminator a to information, only harms the village.

I accept, though, that I may have missed key considerations, and so would appreciate it if other players would consider the idea.

On the issue of voting, I am most suspicious of Phattemar - both due to Meta's analysis and Phatt's actions last cycle.

I am far less suspicious of Alvron, and so will increase the gap between Phattemar and Alvron so as to avoid an easily manipulated lynch.

[Metacognition he/him]

Well, Meta, I just don't really see why you're so sure about Phat. Did you get a confirmation from Renegade yet? 

 

He hasn't been on yet, so of course he hasn't been able to answer my question; I just feel confident about the answer. Multiple posts during the first day, but none of them were relevant to the game? Doesn't make sense to me. 

[phattemer]

Meta, I have a question. Would you be voting for me if it was confirmed that I got only 1 coin from the post/vote aspect part?

If not, then DON'T VOTE FOR ME YET!!! Ren will surely be on at the end of the cycle, will you? All you've done with this baseless speculation is start yet ANOTHER bandwagon without a horse!! You have been known as a very good Eliminator, though. I've just about changed my mind about whether or not you should be lynched.

Edited June 23, 2015 by phattemer

[Shallan she/her]

I have a tendency to agree with Phat, at this point. I mean, I can see that what he did could be considered suspicious, and maybe this is a common bad-guy strategy that I don't know about, but weren't our reasons for lynching Adamir better than these last cycle?

[neodymium]

I don't think that Alv is necessarily suspicious after reading back through posts.  I just wanted to see a post from him.  For now, I will be placing a vote on Jain, but watching closely to see how everyone acts closer to the end of the lynch.

[Shallan she/her]

At this point, Jain is being targeted by the Assassin, so that vote may not do anything, unless it's just a pokie.