Quick Fix Game 8: The Steelway Express

[Adamir]

To reply to Zsas678, there is no cultist doc. They cannot speak anonymously, as far as I know; meaning that Bort being thrown off the train was just luck. And even so, if I were a cultist, wouldn't another cultist take the easier route? The Pooh Without A Name already had votes on him; why wouldn't they just add a few more votes to outweigh the votes on me, were I a cultist?

 

I'd like to hear from someone in Bort's car last cycle. Why did he get thrown off?

Edited June 22, 2015 by Adamir

[phattemer]

Ah, but Adamir, there wouldn't have to be a doc, eh? I know that if I were a CC, I would definitely be trying to roleblock voters for me, though it might be a bit obvious.

Suspicious people, at the risk of being targeted(in no particular order):

Bort: He got roleblocked. Is there a reason for that? Edit1: Apparently not.

Adamir: Yeah, everyone has already said the reasons. Roleblock saved him, yadda yadda yadda. Over-protested a lynch on him, though that doesn't really look bad. Who wants to be lynched?

Meta: Proposed a plan that looks like (?) it would help the CC more? (Unclear, can someone from the buffet car explain more?)

Many many others. I'll edit this later to reflect them.

Edited June 22, 2015 by phattemer

[Elithanathile]

I was in the caboose yesterday, and it was pretty much random. I think only one or two people voted, and they chose Bort for no reason. As well as, if I remember correctly, Adamir wasn't in the caboose, and there's no way for the cultists to talk to each other. So Bort getting chucked was random chance, and had nothing to do with Adamir. But I do think that Adamir is defending himself very strongly, possibly too much. I'll keep my vote on Clanky for now, but I am suspicious. I think we need to keep a close eye on Adamir.

[Adamir]

Adamir: Over-protested a lynch on him, though that doesn't really look bad. Who wants to be lynched?

Harmony's forearms, someone finally agrees with me!

 

EDIT: Orlok, this wasn't Seonid, it was Shallan.

 

I'm trying to crop the overall explanation, but here's the essential facts.

 

-Most likely amount of coinshots: 4

 

A 1 in 5 chance of being a coinshot

 

A 17% chance that there are no coinshot clan members in any given car (except the vault car)

 

34% chance for 1 CC

 

30% chance for 2

 

19% for 3/4

 

If there is 1 coinshot clan member, the mini lynch will have the following likelihood.

 

Chances of the Coinshot Clan benefiting from Meta's plan

 

87% a villager goes bankrupt except for one coin

76% chance CC gains one coin

 

Chances of villagers benefiting from Meta's plan

 

12% chance CC goes almost completely bankrupt

10% chance CC loses one coin

Edited June 22, 2015 by Adamir

[phattemer]

Agree is a... strong word. Let's go with "empathize".

[Zas678]

I'd like to know who those people are, since it did lead to a difference in the lynch. Or barring that, did they post before or after Adamir had some votes on him?

 

Because, if Bort was REALLY sneaky, and he knew he was going to be caboosed, and he and Adamir were both CC, he could try that risk to try and clear himself. But there's only a 50-50 chance. I'm not sure that's worth it.

 

And sorry, Adamir, that my assumptions include that you're a CC. That's just the assumption that I have to make to be able to pull info out of  the failed lynch. 

[Adamir]

Just updated the previous post with more information.

[Bort]

The possibility also occurs to me that Bort could be CC and he's directing suspicion towards Adamir, an unfortunate passenger whose actions could be construed as suspicious. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Bort was the first one to cast a serious vote on someone other than himself. Thoughts?

 

I think you're right in that I was the first to point a finger and give a reason for voting for someone, but I'll admit, at the time, my reasons were rather spurious. It was the day one lynch, on someone outside of the carriage I was in, based on their rather zealous defense of their character.

 

Being in the buffet car with him, Meta, and Seonid during this day cycle, gives me a little more perspective. I've also read through Seonid's numbers (seriously, they would do a university professor proud), and they do check out. So, everything Adamir is saying here is all true. Heavily defending himself can look suspicious, but revealing a plan, even if the maths was done by another, that could have such detrimental effects to the passengers is worth a reprieve.

 

Adamir, bake me something tasty

 

Yes, mostly.  The player that was attacked has their life extended by 1 cycle, so they aren't exactly "protected".  But yes, everything else is correct.

 

Ok, thanks for clarifying

 

My question is- how public was that vote? Was it something done in the shadows, or was there in-car debate that decided on Bort, to possibly prevent a killing? 

 

I can easily see two or more cultists in the caboose, seeing that Adamir (possibly a fellow cultist?) is about to get lynched, and try and even out the vote the most anonymous way they can- through neutralizing Bort's vote.

 

Which could mean that IF the vote was done secretly (and possibly otherwise as well), Adamir is potentially a cultist, and two or more CC were on the caboose first cycle.

 

There were a few people who had one vote each, then Gamma came along and added his vote to me in a tit-for-tat move, even though I had already taken my vote off him earlier in the thread. If Adamir was saved from the lynch by a cultist, look to Gamma. I don't think he is though, but I could be wrong.

 

Edit: Just remembered I need to vote in order to be paid, so... Phattemer, because yours was the name I pulled out of a hat.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Bort

[Peng the Just]

That looks right to me, Bridge Boy. Correct formatting and all that.

For my vote, something seems off about Adamir's pre-emptive defense of himself, but I'm not on the mood to start a bandwagon today. That and I believe that it could just be being new showing through.

I'm going to actually call out peng. What was with your last minute retraction of your vote for meta?

You said it was because you didn't like bandwagoning, but in response, you place it on a player who already had one vote on them, bringing them within one vote of being considered for a lynch.

Because that player hopped on the "lynch meta" bandwagon

[Adamir]

Good point; I'm voting for myself at the moment, as my suspicions on Meta aren't that solid. If I get enough lynch votes, I'm switching.

 

EDIT: If I vote for myself, I will get lynched to death (most likely, as from my count, I have two other votes against me).

Edited June 22, 2015 by Adamir

[dowanx]

I would like to hear more about what happened in the caboose car.  Gamma can you shed some light?

[leiftinspace]

I actually did randomly vote for Grind, but I've been on my mobile all weekend and hadn't yet learned how to color my text, so it didn't count. I think that would have tied it. near as i can tell, it was completely random.

As far as voting goes, meta still seems suspicious to me after hearing about the plan in the buffet car, but i don't want to seem like im jumping on the bandwagon so i will vote for Leif Erikeller just to get a coin , but tomorrow i should have more time to analyze things and come up with some more substantive evidence against people.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Much though I hate to do this I am going to put my vote on Adamir. His posts continue to feel... Off...

Phattemar, I also don't out too much stock behind him revealing the issues with Meta's plan - the maths and discrediting it sound like they came from Seonid, so he isn't really helping the village a huge amount by telling us in the main thread.

Adamir, I apologise if you are innocent and are merely vigorous in your defense - you are just the most suspicious of the players I have interacted with this far. Can I also call out those in the Caboose Car with me - there has been astonishingly little communication - I have been away for the whole cycle until now and came back to 4 posts - two of which were from Renegade. If we are to find the Coinshot Clan, it will be through communication, and forcing them to slip up in posts!

[Seonid]

Just a point of clarification. I didn't post any numbers. I wasn't in the buffet car last round. It was a nice compliment, though, and I'm sure that the person who actually did the analysis appreciates it.

So peng. A new player (looking back, this is his second game) votes for meta, and so you, disliking bandwagons as you do, bandwagoned on him? Not adding up to me.

EDIT: Spelling

Edited June 22, 2015 by Seonid

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Thanks for the heads up Seonid - Adamir has just clarified it to be Shallan - well done on the maths!

[Adamir]

Well, if I vote for myself as I had planned, I will die tonight. Sorry, Orlok, but look at it this way - its only my vote, you won't get killed. I love getting money and I love not dying; so I'm voting for you.

 

Also, do you want evidence of my innocence? How about this - I will set my seating arrangements (if no one robs me with delicious cusine) to put myself in the one room where I can be roleblocked (forget what its called). I will keep moving myself back there every day, and getting myself roleblocked each time, until you are convinced.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Adamir

[Lightsworn Panda]

I guess I'll also put a vote on myself:

Shallan.

The list for the buffet car that Panda put up is incorrect. I won't correct it since that would just give more info to the CCs.

Huh. Who did I miss or add? It's not like the CC need any info on who's in my car, since they probably have someone in it, and there isn't much to gain from knowing who's in it.

[Aanwolf]

A quick thought on posting car occupants...  The chances of all the coinshots being in one car seem very small, so since (if I understand the original rules, Renegade confirm?) the coinshots get one free PM to the active killer, they will at the very least list the occupants of their cars, then they will most likely have multiple cars to choose from.  They could slip up and randomly get someone in the vault car, but that seems unlikely, and they *could* decide not to make a kill in order to implicate whoever gets role-blocked in the caboose.  It would probably be a bad move as I assume they want to kill innocents as quickly as possible, but (pending verification by mathematical analysis), it seems more likely to be a deliberate choice than random determination.  Though, one possibility is for the caboose folks to create a tie in that car (if they don't suspect anyone anyway) so that who gets blocked is random.  If they do that (only when they have no basis for picking a particular person) then it doesn't hurt the innocents any, and it gives the coinshots less information with which to decide who to kill.  It may not make much difference, but in the case where there is no good argument for a particular target, it can't hurt to deny them that minor piece of info.

 

In any case, all I'm really suggesting is that we make a more careful analysis of whether or not to reveal car occupants.  I'd like to see more math, and if it turns out to favor the passengers over the coinshots, I wouldn't want us to make the wrong move by not revealing car occupants.  At the very least, it can't hurt to think about it a bit more.

 

Also, because I want my coin, I'll vote for myself Old Wolf this round for now.  (It seems the popular thing to do, and while some of the arguments against Adamir make sense, I'm keeping an open mind for now.)

Edited June 22, 2015 by Aanwolf

[Adamir]

A few hours earlier, I requested permission to write my own death. If it is granted, here's the death, as I'm signing off for the night (1 AM in my timezone).

 

Mennet sighed, gripping the spike. 'Any last words?' Gavin whispered.

 

Mennet turned around dramatically, pulling on black sunglasses and stabbing the needle-thin Atium alloy spike into his ribs.. Power flowed back into him as he suddenly became the most powerful and awesome - and strikingly handsome and intelligent, if I do say so myself - Mistborn/Feruchemist in existence once again. Everyone on board gasped at the sheer amazingtalityness, and the heads of his accusers exploded via being overloaded with awesomeness.

 

He duralumin-flared bronze and zinc, detecting every Coinshot on the train and overriding their thoughts with self-loathing until they leaped under the train tracks. Next, he used an absurd mastery of Pushes and Pulls to fire Gavin's bullet back into his face, tapping stored weight (don't ask where the Ironmind was, I have no idea).

 

Finally, he walked into the sunset as something exploded dramatically behind him. He then proceeded to give the most amazing, witty, intelligent and awesome one-liner in the entire Cosmere, before Worldhopping to a less depressing game of mafia somewhere in the Koprulu Sector.

 

Wait, I need to write one where he actually dies? Well, I've got no ideas. Just write it however you want - although I would highly recommend the same series of events be followed.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Adamir

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Adamir's willingness to be role blocked consistently has, when weighted with the possibility of a over zealous defence put some doubt in my mind as to his guilt - and as such I will remove my vote from him - Adamir

I would vote for myself, yet I already have a vote on myself - and so I will vote for LightswornPanda as I don't think he currently has a vote. I remain slightly suspicious of Meta - would anyone currently with him care to tell us how he has been acting this cycle?

If LightswornPanda does indeed have a vote I shall return and edit this.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Sorry Adamir but I'm going to put my vote on you. I don't think your entirely suspicious, however your the most suspicious to me at the moment.

Thing is, if you turn out to bee a coinshot then we can look into the two on Caboose last round who voted to roleblock Bort. If you turn out to be good, then I'm very sorry, but at least we would then know if roleblocking Bort was truly random.

edit: spelling

Edited June 22, 2015 by Burnt Spaghetti

[leiftinspace]

Btw, how is it determined which cc gets to be the killer on any given night? Is it random, do you go down a list, or is that secret?

[phattemer]

The thing is, while Adamir does seem suspicious, he hasn't really DONE anything. Sure, he was a target for the lynch yesterday(right?). Sure, he was protected by a random(that has been confirmed, right?) roleblock. Sure, he defended himself. All of those things make PERFECT sense if he is a Coinshot. However, they also make sense as a villager. So what we need to think about is: in a world where we KNOW Adamir is a villager, what would he have done in those situations? In a world where he is DEFINITELY a Coinshot, would he have done the same thing? If he would have done the same thing in either case, there's not really a point in lynching him. We could just as well lynch someone random. Of course, we could just lynch him as the random person. I don't really have a big opinion on this, but we do need to consider both sides.

[Gamma Fiend]

Ok, wow. >.<

I honestly completely forgot about the Caboose Train also role-blocking Votes last cycle when I put the vote on Bort in the Caboose. >.> To be honest, I just voted for him out of a 'tit-for-tat' vote retaliation (didn't see his vote retracted), and didn't want to leave the Role-block up to a random tie, because that makes it not as useful then. Especially if Bort says he wasn't notified of being Role-blocked, that means we'll need to have the players in the Caboose keep a very close tally on the votes in there and report them at the end of each cycle .

 

Then again, people have brought up a good point of the Coinshots trying to track down any passengers who go to the Vault Car. If they coinshots can keep track of who's where and in that car, then it basically becomes useless as the Coinshots won't waste their kills on those players.

 

Perhaps we discuss who was where after each Turn? That way we can still learn who said/did what (mostly the Caboose Results, if a kill didn't happen, then we're able to start looking at those who were role-blocked at least first) and not give away crucial information if it isn't needed?

 

Also, might as well throw a vote on here while I have time before work. Met-al, you have any thoughts, or you just want to keep punching people?

[Shallan]

Interesting that you say that. I realize you're just considering options, but you come across rather strong. Although together with Adamir's roleblockishnessing, I think we don't really need to lynch him today. Maybe if he's not in the caboose next cycle, or if when he gets roleblocked there's no kill.