Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Haelbarde]

I don't know how the Elantrian fireballs work (as in, do we have 5 vigilantes, or do the Elantrians privately vote on a fireball target), but it'd be nice to know for sure if we can rely on Elantris taking out Luckat.

 

But presuming that will happen, I'll pull my vote of Luckat, and stick it on a smart guy for the moment.

 

You've been on today, and you've surely read the thread. Thoughts? Comments? Now that we've (basically) eliminated Pan-Dareth, want to tell us who you're suspicious of? Where do you think the remaining Cultist(s) could be?

[Kasimir]

Thank you for the information, Clanky, though I'm not as swift to clear you from my list as M'Hael seems to be. Depending on the results of a clarificatory PM I get from Hreo, I think I have a satisfactory resolution to the Clanky situation. For the moment, I'm going to put that vote onto Emerald, since I'd like to hear more coming from that quarter.
 
Edit: Soddit. I do think asking Clanky to poison someone to soft-clear him is pretty worthwhile, unless people genuinely want to go for a LAFO, as it might save Meta on one scan. At this point, I might be inclined to suggest we ask him to poison one of our leading suspects.
 
As I see it, this is our current pools, although technically, if we want to be rigorous about it, the only three I'd genuinely consider soft-confirmed are Wyrm and Seonid and Dow.

Hard-confirmed: Kas, Twei, Mek, Meta, Wilson, Ren, Alv, Neo
Soft-Confirmed: Wyrm, Seonid, Wonko/Sart, Dow
Perhaps Soft-Confirmed: M'Hael
? : Clanky, Claincy, Araris, Ostrich, Kipper, Piff/Em 
Confirmed Evil: Luckat

Personally, I'm less inclined to ask to waste a poison on anyone in the Perhaps/Soft-Confirmed pool. My current suggestion is that we ask Clanky to prove it by poisoning one of the generally-silent/mostly-inactive people in the ? pool. If they haven't been speaking up much, being silenced by being thrown in Elantris isn't going to be a major loss on our part. So, probably Ostrich.

 

Edit 2: I should also add that it seems unlikely that there is another Cultist Pirate out there, given the sheer number of 'kill-with-me's floating aorund in this game, so that kind of nixes the whole point of hanging on to the poison since it's a delayed role-block, at best.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Kasimir

[Wyrmhero]

The question is not whether Clanky started with a vial of Poison, but whether or not he still has the vial on him. We have been trying to track the Eliminator who poisoned Meta, after all, and we have no way to automatically check whether or not someone still has it without them using it. If Clanky still has it and is able to poison someone, then we could quite safely say he is not the one we're looking for. Otherwise, we have our (probably last) guy, I think.

 

I'm going to put a vote on Araris, as it seems as though he hasn't quite been paying attention. Sure, Seonid didn't say why he was voting as he did, and that's not the best for people to do, but we have pretty definitely confirmed innocence there, with Seonid being a Jindo Warrior and having been attacked twice. So, which side of Wyrmhero's Law do you fall upon? Is it maliciousness, or a lack of attention?

[Kasimir]

Alright, ignore the suggestion of Clanky poisoning someone. As Wyrm would say it, I'm a moron >>

I think there's a better way to manage this poison-claim and soft-clear Clanky. Have Clanky give the poison to someone cleared during the Day. Gifting can happen during either Turn, so we don't have to wait, and we don't have to dither about who it ought to go to. For our purposes, I suggest myself, simply because I'm not sure if Gifting takes up an action slot (Hreo, confirmation please?) and we don't want to encumber Meta or co. with having to give back the poison at night, but I have no night actions.
 
When items are Gifted, the identity of the giver cannot be concealed which further suits our purposes, because then we have GM confirmation that it was Clanky who had the poison. Once the transfer is complete at the end of this Turn and Clanky is soft-cleared, have whoever received the poison return it to Clanky, with our thanks for his putting up with our need to soft-confirm him.
 
Situation resolved. Easy.

[Haelbarde]

For our purposes, I suggest myself, simply because I'm not sure if Gifting takes up an action slot (Hreo, confirmation please?) and we don't want to encumber Meta or co. with having to give back the poison at night, but I have no night actions.

 

When items are Gifted, the identity of the giver cannot be concealed which further suits our purposes, because then we have GM confirmation that it was Clanky who had the poison. Once the transfer is complete at the end of this Turn and Clanky is soft-cleared, have whoever received the poison return it to Clanky, with our thanks for his putting up with our need to soft-confirm him.

 

Situation resolved. Easy.

From his initial clarifications:

 

Tis a gift to be simple

Giving an item as a gift does not take an action. The "giving" takes place at the end of the phase. Thus, the receiving player will have to wait until the next phase to use the item. (ie: say Raoden somehow knew that the Cultists were going to target Sarene during this night phase. He gives her the Korathi Pendant. However, she doesn't receive it until the end of the night phase, so it arrives too late to save her.)

 

---

 

When items are Gifted, the identity of the giver cannot be concealed which further suits our purposes, because then we have GM confirmation that it was Clanky who had the poison. Once the transfer is complete at the end of this Turn and Clanky is soft-cleared, have whoever received the poison return it to Clanky, with our thanks for his putting up with our need to soft-confirm him.

 

Just verifying this. I started with poison, but gave it to Kas in cycle 2 I think (he used it to send Bort to Elantris). I checked with Hero beforehand whether Kas would be told that I gave him the poison, and Hero confirmed it did.

 

---

 

@Kas, re: suspicions of Clanky. Not sure when I've dismissed him as being suspcious, but I will say that I've found that he's not necessarily said a whole lot, and I feel like I'm biased negatively against him. So I'm wary of coming down hard on Clanky without being sure that it's founded. 

[Kasimir]

@Kas, re: suspicions of Clanky. Not sure when I've dismissed him as being suspcious, but I will say that I've found that he's not necessarily said a whole lot, and I feel like I'm biased negatively against him. So I'm wary of coming down hard on Clanky without being sure that it's founded.

Mate, that's all and very well, but when you spent at least two cycles obsessively trying to prove my Dula-ness and then immediately accept a poison-claim at face value? Something's definitely either inconsistent, weird, or fishy. And I mean this in the sense of an inclusive-or.

Clarification appreciated though: then Clanky, send your poison to someone who's been confirmed, simpliciter. (Preferably myself, Ren, Meta, or Wilson--someone who is likely to get onto the thread upon receipt and to confirm they have it, so you don't get shot by accident.) Person who received the poison, do confirm you have it, otherwise we'll be forced to assume Clanky is lying and take appropriate action.

[Haelbarde]

Mate, that's all and very well, but when you spent at least two cycles obsessively trying to prove my Dula-ness and then immediately accept a poison-claim at face value? Something's definitely either inconsistent, weird, or fishy. And I mean this in the sense of an inclusive-or.

Ah. So its more the fact I've not actually referred to his poison claim. Slightly curious as to if you're mixing me up with Seonid. I felt it slightly odd to make a claim under threat of lynch, but I wondered if I'd do the same. Ultimately, I wasn't too concerned. If someone got poisoned, we'd kill Clanky, if we didn't then we've not gained a lot. Gifting the poison is a good idea. I feel like at this point, the village has won, but it's just a question of how long it takes us to remove all the cultists. Your Dulaness was me being undecided on my stance on public confirmation of roles. If you noticed, I more took Jain at face value, without much complaint. 

 

EDIT: Clarifying my comment about how I think the village seems to be almost guaranteed a win (presuming our Elantrians don't get trigger happy), it's why I wasn't so concerned. It's also been addressed by others, and now we have a plan to verify it efficiently (his having poisonness). 

Edited June 19, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Emerald101]

For the moment, I'm going to put that vote onto Emerald, since I'd like to hear more coming from that quarter.

 

You know what, I'm gonna be completely honest with you here. I was really just hopping on the lynch-wagon. Because I lack strong suspicions at this point in the game, and because if I were to vote for somebody else I doubt I could be persuasive enough to change the lynch target, I felt that voting for Clanky would be the best use of my vote in current circumstances.

[Clanky]

Ok I will send my poison to someone cleared today. Also If we are going to use the fireball on Luckat then I will instead vote for Araris. he has focused on the same suspects throughout the whole game game and hasn't really differed from them. Me, Hael and Jain none of which have been proven to be cultists(yet).  An easy way to maintain discussion without accidentally revealing something about your teammates. 

[Kasimir]

Ah. So its more the fact I've not actually referred to his poison claim. Slightly curious as to if you're mixing me up with Seonid. I felt it slightly odd to make a claim under threat of lynch, but I wondered if I'd do the same. Ultimately, I wasn't too concerned. If someone got poisoned, we'd kill Clanky, if we didn't then we've not gained a lot. Gifting the poison is a good idea. I feel like at this point, the village has won, but it's just a question of how long it takes us to remove all the cultists. Your Dulaness was me being undecided on my stance on public confirmation of roles. If you noticed, I more took Jain at face value, without much complaint.

That's somewhat it. Perhaps I expressed myself badly: I was just genuinely surprised that you seemed to let it pass without comment and even withdrew your vote. That seemed to me to be very much inconsistent with how much verification you required of my being a Dula. And it seems to me that the worry is less 'well, if he does have it and use it, we'll find out' and ought to be more along the lines of whether he was the person who did in fact poison Meta, and doesn't have the poison anymore. But we're going to find out now

I did notice you took Jain at face value. It didn't occur to me to ask then: I was admittedly preoccupied with worrying at the Gyorn problem. As I've said numerous times, as a Convert, I felt like I had a kill switch implanted in me and the Gyorn could flip it anytime. Naturally, I wanted to take him out ASAP so we could get back to focusing on the Cultists. As such, it's fortuitous for us that he hit Luckat.

While I would like to hear more from Em, I'll throw a vote onto Kipper/Burnt, just because I'm a little uneasy about how closely Bort's defense of himself on his last day mapped into Kipper's early rant. I'm not sure I feel strongly about this, but given I mightn't get on in time to vote before the cycle closes and Araris has two votes on him, I'm not going to add fuel to that fire. (Although Wyrm and I are in agreement that there's something strange about Araris asking Seonid for his reasons, once again, I don't find it something I'd lynch for.)

 

Edit: Thanks, Clanky Cleared person who receives the poison, please remember to inform the thread, so we can soft-clear Clanky. (Probably best to be polite and return it to him, too...)

Edited June 19, 2015 by Kasimir

[Sart]

Well, the good news is that we can get rid of the threat of Pan Dereth. The bad news is, we still don't know who the remaining cultist is. While there are several people who have been cleared, the majority of people are suspicious. I've never been the greatest at picking out who cultists are. To be honest, I tend to do these games mostly for the role-play. However, with this game, I don't want to RP a character I didn't create. Therefore, I have to rely on my meager powers of deduction. Unfortunately, I'm going to be inactive this weekend, so I don't have as much time to speculate as I want to. While I'm hesitant to do this, I'm going to put a vote on Claincy. His play-style is different than normal, and I can't help feeling like he's hiding something. Also, I would like to address Haelbarde's concern. I gave away my Seon to Meta on Day 5. I don't really like using PM's, so I gave it to someone who was already confirmed. I know that's only soft-confirming me, but I think we have better suspects to focus on.

[Araris Valerian]

I didn't make the connection between Seonid being the warrior and making that post (regardless, clarification is always helpful, and if Seonid knew something but forgot to say it then that would have been helpful). When I see something like that I tend to forget who is cleared, and I don't keep a list of something like that, since people are usually pretty quick to point it out to me (which, I know, is not the best idea).

 

Clanky. I'm retracting my vote because, despite what you indicate I have said, a large part of my suspicion of you is that, following suspicious activity you disappeared off the map, so to speak. But I think your arguments against me are a bit flawed. For one, whether or not the people I suspect are guilty isn't that big of a deal. As I see it, it is important for players in this game to make clear statements of where they stand, such as your vote on me. Everyone can tell that you suspect me, which is good information for the group regardless of if I am actually a cultist. That is why I listed a few people I suspected. That being said, we lynched Jain, so my suspicions there, based on him being either Gyorn or cultist from Kas and Wyrm's arguments, were justified.

 

Clanky, due to Wilson, is still up for being lynched, just to point that out. I'll try and put down another vote later today, but I'll have to see how busy I end up being.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[dowanx]

Hey guys just posting to check in.  

 

Work has been brutal over the last week and I haven't even really had time to read the forums.  That said I will try to get caught up before the cycle ends and post my vote, but I might not get a chance to.

[Kasimir]

Still up due to work-related reasons. Sigh. Definitely going to miss the rollover at this rate.

Clanky (3): Kas<1>, Wyrm<1>, Wilson*, Seonid, Araris, Em
Luckat (2): Meta, M'Hael<1>, Kipper/Burnt, Clanky<1>
Sart (1): M'Hael<2>
Em (0): Kas<2>
Araris (2): Wyrm<2>, Clanky<2>
Kipper/Burnt (1): Kas<3>
Claincy (1): Sart
 
Pleased to remind all that unless there is another crouching Debtor (not impossible), Clanky is scheduled to die either way, be it from Wilson's triple-vote or from the ongoing tie between Araris and Luckat since they have 2 votes on them each. I'll leave you lot to sort that out as I need to finish up here and get some sleep.
 
Edit:

Ὁ κύριος θὰ πληρώσει γιὰ ὅλα. Περαστικά.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Kasimir

[Renegade]

Riingar grinned a fiendish smile to himself, and walked straight through the front hall of the King’s Palace.  (Or was it the Queen’s Palace now?  …Or the King/Queen’s Palace?  The Monarch’s Palace?)  The palace guards did nothing to stop him.  He was, after all, literally glowing with power.  Aye, I could get used ta this!

 

Of course, their Queen/King/Monarch was now an Elantrian, too.  That ain’t fair, Riingar had thought upon hearing the news.  I spent 8 whole nights in that thar city, tryin’ ta make it gooder again, an’ she jus’ gets a boatload o’ powers, just like that?  But if Riingar had learned anything from inside of Elantris, it was that life tended to not be fair.  It certainly wasn’t for Sienene, who had been sacrificed by the Jeskeri Cultists.  Afterwards, Riingar and the other Elantrians had decided to take out their frustration on Diren and Borter… and it turns out both of them were Jeskeri Cultists!  The fiends!

 

Riingar walked through a pair of large wooden doors, into the King’s court, where everyone else appeared to be gathered.  Many of the nobles cast suspicious glances at each other, trying to discern friend from foe.

 

Riingar drew Aon Ehe, adding the chasm line, and a large fireball burst forth towards the ceiling.  “ARR!!!” Riingar yelled.  “Y’ALL BE QUIET!!!”

 

The fireball and Riingar’s mad yelling quieted everyone down.

 

“Now, I heard that thar be some suspects o’ the Jeskeri Cultists,” Riingar said.  “Aye, I… arr, I had a list somewhere.  But never ye mind!  Thar be Cultists in this room, an’ I think one of ‘em be that fortune teller!”  He made a swooping, grand hand gesture towards Clankii, whose skin had, like the Queen/King/Monarch’s, had turned silvery-white overnight.  Totally unfair.  But not the reason that Riingar was suspicious of him.

 

“Aye, ye wonderin’: what be th’ charges against this self-proclaimed soothsayer?”  Riingar looked down, trying to rummage something out of his pocket.  “An’ actually, that be my thoughts too, ‘cause I left me notes in Elantris, methinks.  Ah, I be back later!”

---

 

Sorry about the inactivity, but I’ve been… indisposed for the last 8 cycles.  Hopefully, this will make up for my absence:

 

As others have done, let’s narrow the list down to the unconfirmed Citizen players, excluding Seonid and Wyrm, because the reasons for them being Citizens has already been discussed.  So, the list:

Pifferdoo/Emerald
Wonko/Sart
Ostrich/Silverblade

Clanky
Araris
Kipper/Spaghetti
Hael
Dow
Claincy

 

I'm going to go through this one by one, because I’m meticulous like that.  In this post, I’ll be covering the first four players I have listed.  I’ll explain the rest later, after I take a rest from poring over the entire game.

 

Pifferdoo/Emerald
Obviously, Pifferdoo wasn’t active, and had to be replaced, which isn’t necessarily a good or evil action, but it does mean that there isn’t much to be gleaned until around Day 4, when Emerald said this, saying that he thought of Bort as suspicious.  Now, considering that Phattemer was killed on Night 4, and the Cultists weren’t yet aware of the second Priest at that particular moment, putting extra suspicion on Bort, when he still (from the Cultists’ standpoint) had a chance of survival.  Doesn’t make too much sense.  He also defends Winter in that post, but so did a bunch of other innocents, so I don’t know if we can fault him there.

 

Then, there’s this post, in which Emerald points out that Clanky has been using RP as a voting excuse.  Not too helpful right now, unless we find out that Clanky is indeed a Cultist.

 

However, because of this post, in which he clearly suggested Luckat as Meta’s lynch target last Night, I highly doubt that Emerald is a Cultist.  At that point, I think that, with enough persuasion, Meta’s scan might have gone towards a different player, but that kind of solidified it towards Luckat.

 

Wonko/Sart
Let’s start off at Day 1, where Wonko basically decided the vote.  This already makes him a little less suspicious in my eyes, because making a decisive action that early on, when making an incorrect lynch causes you to be put into the limelight and scrutinized, isn’t really something that Eliminators tend to do.  Not only that, but all of the other players that were under threat of the lynch have been confirmed Citizens, so he wouldn’t have done that for the sole purpose of saving a fellow Cultist from the lynch.

 

Skip ahead to Day 3, where he relays Phatt’s message to the thread.  Some parts of the message’s meaning were mixed up, but I think that could have been a compounding of my thoughts to Phatt, from Phatt to Wonko, and from Wonko to the thread.  Anyway, it did help to alert Seon-holders to the presence of a Priest, which could help confirm things.  Of course, I don’t think that it would’ve been a good idea for a Cultist to not relay the message, either.

 

There’s not too much from Wonko/Sart after that, until now, when Sart revealed that he gave his Seon to Meta on Day 5.  This could be a Cultist gambit, but then again, giving a Seon to a confirmed role (especially Meta) is just a bad idea for the Cultists.  It’s pretty much ended up with a whole bunch of their attacks failing.  So, overall, I think Wonko/Sart isn’t one of the more likely suspects.

 

Ostrich/Silverblade

I’ll be honest; their inactivity hasn’t been the most helpful.  Still suspicious about Ostrich apparently being a lurker, without saying anything, but being the only one to say nothing at all also puts you in the limelight, and for a Cultist to ignore the pleas to be brought forth?  If a lynch on Ostrich were about to go through… well, even if he did talk, just look what happened to Spencer.  Sure, they have vote manipulation coordination on their side, but that still would cast some heavy suspicion on Ostrich.  Anyway, that’s too much thinking.  I’d place Ostrich/Silverblade at medium suspicion.

 

Clanky
Clanky’s my biggest suspicion right now, an’ here be why:

 

On Day 2, Clanky’s first post puts up a confusing/misleading reason for last Night’s kill, and votes for Hael.  Bort (a confirmed Cultist) flags that as a bit suspicious for doing so with little evidence to back it up, but then almost immediately goes after Dowanx.  Winter (another confirmed Cultist) also voted for Clanky, as did Kipper (both for the same reasoning: Clanky using RP, but neither of them elaborated much on that point).  However, Winter seemed eager to remove her vote after only a little bit of explanation from Clanky.

 

(This is later brought up by Kas on Day 6, and Clanky responds by saying this, that “almost everyone has said something about me being slightly suspicious”. That exaggeration seems like an easy way to lose suspicion over something like that, without actually having any defense against that point.)

 

On Night 3, Winter makes a post that supports Clanky (which, I note, has more reasoning as to that decision than anyone else).  She also puts some suspicion towards Bort, implying that the Eliminators are willing to put suspicion on each other, if necessary (which could explain their suspicion towards Clanky).

 

Onto Day 4.  Clanky starts off by asking this question to Wilson (who is a confirmed Citizen).  I don’t know, but that just reeks of Clanky trying to get Wilson to reveal secretive information about her role/items.  And if Wilson didn’t explain well enough, then it might cast suspicion onto her.

 

On Day 5, Clanky wrote up this post.  The first thing that he analyzes is the fact that he believes that Luckat (a confirmed Cultist) is innocent, due to her posts seeming “genuine,” and that it is an adequate excuse for not posting analysis.  Luckat, as opposed to any of the others, such as Claincy, who have been fairly quiet but said the same thing.

 

On Day 8, as Kas pointed out, he lists the possible Odivs, putting the confirmed players first (Kas, Wilson, and Twei), saying that Jain would be more likely to pick a confirmed Citizen than a potential Cultist.  And yet, that’s exactly what Jain did, selecting Luckat as an Odiv.  Yeah, sure, could be a coincidence, whatever.  But the point is that doing this could’ve been an attempt to deter Meta from scanning the players who could be both a Cultist an Odiv, and finding out that Luckat’s a Cultist.

 

Any now onto today.  While I don’t really doubt that Clanky is a Debtor, the evidence stacked up against him makes me question whether he has a poison vial, and whether that was obtained legitimately (i.e. he had it the entire game).  And, Clanky, if you do have a Poison Vial, you should’ve spoken up about it a while ago (especially since you don’t have a role that would make you a Cultist target).  This just seems to be too coincidental for you to be revealing this now, when you finally are up for a lynch, and the need for Poison Vials is gone.

 

Now, Clanky, just because I have all of this evidence against doesn't mean that you are indeed a Cultist. However, I've made my points against you, and they should (hopefully) be clear, so if you want to make a defense for yourself, do so now.  I have a couple of other suspicions in mind (i.e. most of the other players that I haven't explained yet), so if you can convince me otherwise, I'll move my vote off.

[little wilson]

Despite Ren's evidence, I'm going to retract my vote on Clanky. I noticed in my skim-through of the game that when Winter called out my suspicions, she hesitated saying anything incriminating about Luckat and really calling Luckat out, but she didn't have any reservations on Clanky. It's not certain, but where she protected one teammate, I'd think she'd protect the other in the same post, and since she didn't, I don't think Clanky is her teammate. Regardless, I'll let the poison decide.

 

I'm not sure I'll be on to place another vote, and right now with the numbers as low as they are, any vote I place will decide the lynch and I don't particularly feel comfortable with that. If I were to vote, I'd vote Emerald. I'll try to check the thread, but I've got a somewhat busy night tonight so I might not be able to. We'll see.

[Clanky]

Riingar grinned a fiendish smile to himself, and walked straight through the front hall of the King’s Palace.  (Or was it the Queen’s Palace now?  …Or the King/Queen’s Palace?  The Monarch’s Palace?)  The palace guards did nothing to stop him.  He was, after all, literally glowing with power.  Aye, I could get used ta this!

 

Of course, their Queen/King/Monarch was now an Elantrian, too.  That ain’t fair, Riingar had thought upon hearing the news.  I spent 8 whole nights in that thar city, tryin’ ta make it gooder again, an’ she jus’ gets a boatload o’ powers, just like that?  But if Riingar had learned anything from inside of Elantris, it was that life tended to not be fair.  It certainly wasn’t for Sienene, who had been sacrificed by the Jeskeri Cultists.  Afterwards, Riingar and the other Elantrians had decided to take out their frustration on Diren and Borter… and it turns out both of them were Jeskeri Cultists!  The fiends!

 

Riingar walked through a pair of large wooden doors, into the King’s court, where everyone else appeared to be gathered.  Many of the nobles cast suspicious glances at each other, trying to discern friend from foe.

 

Riingar drew Aon Ehe, adding the chasm line, and a large fireball burst forth towards the ceiling.  “ARR!!!” Riingar yelled.  “Y’ALL BE QUIET!!!”

 

The fireball and Riingar’s mad yelling quieted everyone down.

 

“Now, I heard that thar be some suspects o’ the Jeskeri Cultists,” Riingar said.  “Aye, I… arr, I had a list somewhere.  But never ye mind!  Thar be Cultists in this room, an’ I think one of ‘em be that fortune teller!”  He made a swooping, grand hand gesture towards Clankii, whose skin had, like the Queen/King/Monarch’s, had turned silvery-white overnight.  Totally unfair.  But not the reason that Riingar was suspicious of him.

 

“Aye, ye wonderin’: what be th’ charges against this self-proclaimed soothsayer?”  Riingar looked down, trying to rummage something out of his pocket.  “An’ actually, that be my thoughts too, ‘cause I left me notes in Elantris, methinks.  Ah, I be back later!”

---

 

Sorry about the inactivity, but I’ve been… indisposed for the last 8 cycles.  Hopefully, this will make up for my absence:

 

As others have done, let’s narrow the list down to the unconfirmed Citizen players, excluding Seonid and Wyrm, because the reasons for them being Citizens has already been discussed.  So, the list:

Pifferdoo/Emerald

Wonko/Sart

Ostrich/Silverblade

Clanky

Araris

Kipper/Spaghetti

Hael

Dow

Claincy

 

I'm going to go through this one by one, because I’m meticulous like that.  In this post, I’ll be covering the first four players I have listed.  I’ll explain the rest later, after I take a rest from poring over the entire game.

 

Pifferdoo/Emerald

Obviously, Pifferdoo wasn’t active, and had to be replaced, which isn’t necessarily a good or evil action, but it does mean that there isn’t much to be gleaned until around Day 4, when Emerald said this, saying that he thought of Bort as suspicious.  Now, considering that Phattemer was killed on Night 4, and the Cultists weren’t yet aware of the second Priest at that particular moment, putting extra suspicion on Bort, when he still (from the Cultists’ standpoint) had a chance of survival.  Doesn’t make too much sense.  He also defends Winter in that post, but so did a bunch of other innocents, so I don’t know if we can fault him there.

 

Then, there’s this post, in which Emerald points out that Clanky has been using RP as a voting excuse.  Not too helpful right now, unless we find out that Clanky is indeed a Cultist.

 

However, because of this post, in which he clearly suggested Luckat as Meta’s lynch target last Night, I highly doubt that Emerald is a Cultist.  At that point, I think that, with enough persuasion, Meta’s scan might have gone towards a different player, but that kind of solidified it towards Luckat.

 

Wonko/Sart

Let’s start off at Day 1, where Wonko basically decided the vote.  This already makes him a little less suspicious in my eyes, because making a decisive action that early on, when making an incorrect lynch causes you to be put into the limelight and scrutinized, isn’t really something that Eliminators tend to do.  Not only that, but all of the other players that were under threat of the lynch have been confirmed Citizens, so he wouldn’t have done that for the sole purpose of saving a fellow Cultist from the lynch.

 

Skip ahead to Day 3, where he relays Phatt’s message to the thread.  Some parts of the message’s meaning were mixed up, but I think that could have been a compounding of my thoughts to Phatt, from Phatt to Wonko, and from Wonko to the thread.  Anyway, it did help to alert Seon-holders to the presence of a Priest, which could help confirm things.  Of course, I don’t think that it would’ve been a good idea for a Cultist to not relay the message, either.

 

There’s not too much from Wonko/Sart after that, until now, when Sart revealed that he gave his Seon to Meta on Day 5.  This could be a Cultist gambit, but then again, giving a Seon to a confirmed role (especially Meta) is just a bad idea for the Cultists.  It’s pretty much ended up with a whole bunch of their attacks failing.  So, overall, I think Wonko/Sart isn’t one of the more likely suspects.

 

Ostrich/Silverblade

I’ll be honest; their inactivity hasn’t been the most helpful.  Still suspicious about Ostrich apparently being a lurker, without saying anything, but being the only one to say nothing at all also puts you in the limelight, and for a Cultist to ignore the pleas to be brought forth?  If a lynch on Ostrich were about to go through… well, even if he did talk, just look what happened to Spencer.  Sure, they have vote manipulation coordination on their side, but that still would cast some heavy suspicion on Ostrich.  Anyway, that’s too much thinking.  I’d place Ostrich/Silverblade at medium suspicion.

 

Clanky

Clanky’s my biggest suspicion right now, an’ here be why:

 

On Day 2, Clanky’s first post puts up a confusing/misleading reason for last Night’s kill, and votes for Hael.  Bort (a confirmed Cultist) flags that as a bit suspicious for doing so with little evidence to back it up, but then almost immediately goes after Dowanx.  Winter (another confirmed Cultist) also voted for Clanky, as did Kipper (both for the same reasoning: Clanky using RP, but neither of them elaborated much on that point).  However, Winter seemed eager to remove her vote after only a little bit of explanation from Clanky.

 

(This is later brought up by Kas on Day 6, and Clanky responds by saying this, that “almost everyone has said something about me being slightly suspicious”. That exaggeration seems like an easy way to lose suspicion over something like that, without actually having any defense against that point.)

 

On Night 3, Winter makes a post that supports Clanky (which, I note, has more reasoning as to that decision than anyone else).  She also puts some suspicion towards Bort, implying that the Eliminators are willing to put suspicion on each other, if necessary (which could explain their suspicion towards Clanky).

 

Onto Day 4.  Clanky starts off by asking this question to Wilson (who is a confirmed Citizen).  I don’t know, but that just reeks of Clanky trying to get Wilson to reveal secretive information about her role/items.  And if Wilson didn’t explain well enough, then it might cast suspicion onto her.

 

On Day 5, Clanky wrote up this post.  The first thing that he analyzes is the fact that he believes that Luckat (a confirmed Cultist) is innocent, due to her posts seeming “genuine,” and that it is an adequate excuse for not posting analysis.  Luckat, as opposed to any of the others, such as Claincy, who have been fairly quiet but said the same thing.

 

On Day 8, as Kas pointed out, he lists the possible Odivs, putting the confirmed players first (Kas, Wilson, and Twei), saying that Jain would be more likely to pick a confirmed Citizen than a potential Cultist.  And yet, that’s exactly what Jain did, selecting Luckat as an Odiv.  Yeah, sure, could be a coincidence, whatever.  But the point is that doing this could’ve been an attempt to deter Meta from scanning the players who could be both a Cultist an Odiv, and finding out that Luckat’s a Cultist.

 

Any now onto today.  While I don’t really doubt that Clanky is a Debtor, the evidence stacked up against him makes me question whether he has a poison vial, and whether that was obtained legitimately (i.e. he had it the entire game).  And, Clanky, if you do have a Poison Vial, you should’ve spoken up about it a while ago (especially since you don’t have a role that would make you a Cultist target).  This just seems to be too coincidental for you to be revealing this now, when you finally are up for a lynch, and the need for Poison Vials is gone.

 

Now, Clanky, just because I have all of this evidence against doesn't mean that you are indeed a Cultist. However, I've made my points against you, and they should (hopefully) be clear, so if you want to make a defense for yourself, do so now.  I have a couple of other suspicions in mind (i.e. most of the other players that I haven't explained yet), so if you can convince me otherwise, I'll move my vote off.

The Day 2 comment: I was attempting to discuss at least a bit why the cultists chose their first kill. I am sorry that it was confusing and misleading. 

 

Night 3: I can't defend myself as to why Winter would defend me. However it is a strategy as a cultist to defend a villager so that they seem suspicious if you are found out. 

 

Which leads me to the Day 5 comment about Luckats innocence. While a cultist will often make defend a villager with shoddy reasoning to cast suspicion on them as above a cultist defending a cultist with little reasoning(which my defence definitely was) is more likely to come back to bite them.

 

Day 4 question to Wilson. At the time there was still a small chance that the cleared people such as Wilson were doing an elaborate plot to trick all the villagers. I still feel like that was a legitimate question. I would never give something like that away to someone that early in the game. Also nobody else thought it was odd that the person who gifted the pendant was killed right after by the cultists?

 

My day 8 comments have already been discussed so I won't do it again here.

 

 

As for waiting till now to reveal that I have poison it wasn't my plan to do so. I asked for a PM from one of the confirmed earlier in the game so I could tell them about the poison but I never got the PM. Later someone(I forget who) asked if I still wanted to be contacted but I was busy at the time and would have been unable to really participate in a conversation. 

 

There had also been discussion of sending a Cultist pirate to Elantris with the poison to somewhat weaken their role. So my plan was if a pirate suspected to be a cultist was found I would reveal that I had the poison and ask for a delay of their lynch so that I could send them to Elantris in the next night. This was not necessary however. 

 

About me not being a cultist target because of my role I find that a very poor reason to reveal info. Firstly nobody knew my role so the cultists wouldn't know if it was useful or not. If I had revealed that I was a Debtor I recall some people having the opinion that the cultists had a debtor so that would have made me more of a lynch target. 

 

Sorry if I missed anything Ren.

 

To answer all those who may ask why I now have time to post now that I am in danger: Today is my day off work so I do have extra time. Also lots of my inactivity resulted from not having anything to say but when I did I tried to share it (See my Odiv post that may yet be the death of me). So me posting now is a result of excess time and having stuff to say. 

[Renegade]

Fair enough, Clanky.  I realized that by the end of my post that some of the points I had made hadn't matched up, so I didn't truly suspect you as much as I probably let on; mostly, I just wanted to see what you would say under that sort of pressure.  Lynching you would've been a bad idea anyway, as it could possibly rid us of a Citizen Elantrian, which we don't really want.  If you gift the poison vial today, though, it'll definitely be a lot of evidence in your favor.  Until then, I'll have to figure out who the next best suspect is (I swear, if Luckat's the last Cultist... ).

[Metacognition]

I'll take my vote of Luckat, if that's the route people would rather go. It's a smart plan as is. I don't really have a lot of other suspicions other than Clanky and Luckat though. Claincy? Araris? I don't know who would be the most likely out of everyone left. >.< Whomever it is, they're hiding incredibly well! 

[Haelbarde]

---

Vote Tally

Clanky (0): Kas<1>, Wyrm<1>, Wilson*, Seonid, Araris, Em, Ren
Luckat (1): Meta, M'Hael<1>, Kipper/Burnt, Clanky<1>
Sart (1): M'Hael<2>
Em (0): Kas<2>
Araris (2): Wyrm<2>, Clanky<2>
Kipper/Burnt (1): Kas<3>
Claincy (1): Sart

Luckat (1): Kipper/Burnt

Sart (1): M'Hael
Araris (2): Wyrm, Clanky
Kipper/Burnt (1): Kas
Claincy (1): Sart

---

We're not exactly super decisive at the moment. Wilson said she'd likely vote Emerald, but doesn't want to decide the vote by her lonesome. I would consider shifting my vote to Claincy, who hasn't reported in this cycle, but then that'll take out Clanky (potentially).

 

EDIT: Did we ever have a second party verify Wyrm's Dulaness? I might shift my vote from Sart to Wyrm, just to verify.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Renegade]

Alright, don't really have the time that I thought to lay out all of my suspicions in a super-organized way with tons of links to posts and stuff, but I'll summarize what I think about Dow, Kipper/Spaghetti, Haelbarde, Araris, and Claincy.

 

First of, with Dow, a lot of people have been acting as if he's been soft-confirmed for being consistently hounded after by Bort, but I am not sure that this is as confirming as people may think.  Winter did, at one point, list Bort as her biggest suspicion, and actually gave a short explanation of it.  That said, it is less likely that Dow is a Cultist, coupled with the fact that Dow put himself into the limelight on Day 1, as with Wonko, which is, as I said, not exactly an Eliminator thing to do that early on.

 

And, to be honest, for the last 4, my suspicions for them aren't exactly that strong.  However, if we are to believe that the Cultists did indeed try to kill Orlok for being Lovers with Araris, then Araris wouldn't be a Cultist (unless the Cultists really cannot stand lovebirds in their organization ).  With Kipper and Hael, eh, they could go either way.  Haven't really done anything very noticeable to make me see them as good or evil.  (But then again, it's the people who don't tend to be noticeably evil who actually are...)

 

So that leaves Claincy, who I am slightly more suspicious of.  First of all, throughout the game, the known Cultists have seemingly ignored him, only pointing out that he has legitimate reason to be inactive.  But let's think about this: if he does have so much RL stuff going on, why has he never bothered handing over his role to a pinch hitter, like Wonko and Aonar have?  Not exactly suspicious, but still a bit odd that he'd choose to try to hang onto the game with so much going on.  Claincy has been pointedly noncommittal (which I guess makes sense for being relatively active, but still).  Take this post, in which he lists 5 suspicions, whom he also gives a reason not to be suspicious of.  This tends to be a trend in many of Claincy's posts this game.

 

However, on Night 3, he does suggest Bort as a Poison target, which alleviates my suspicions somewhat, unless the Cultists were really convinced that they could take out Phatt within the next cycle or so.  And, to be honest, I can't find much else that he's said so far that makes him particularly suspicious.  He did claim to have been contacted by Honey Badger (after he was lynched), who told him that Badger was a Pirate targeting Zas, which I find to be a bit suspect, as it cannot be proven.  But, well, we have to lynch someone, and Claincy's been pulling out the "inactive" card far too often this game, I think.

[Metacognition]

How long do we have before the end of the turn now?

[Alvron]

About 10 mins I think.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Called it The Odiv part, at least.

 

We seem to have a solid plan for Luckat and Clanky, so there's not much point looking at those two.

 

Hael: As previously stated, I can't spin him giving his poison to Kas into a serious Cultist move.

Kipper/Burnt: There was some weirdness with Kipper before, and Kas has pointed out parallels between things Kipper and Bort have said. On the other hand, Burnt has made some useful observations.

Dow: Probably soft-confirmed, because it seems Bort was happy to lynch him.

Araris: I'm not sure what to make of him, because he hasn't done much to influence my opinion. Which is interesting in itself. The info coming about Clanky will be interesting here.

Piff/Emerald: I disagree with Ren about clearing them based on suggesting Luckat for the scan.

Claincy: The big argument against him is inactivity due to RL. I've been guilty of that too this game, so let's just say I'm sympathetic of RL reasons and have no idea of his alignment.

Ostrich/Silverblade: ...Meh.

Aonar/Wyrm: Luckat posted a comment about how we shouldn't treat the Dula as a pseudosafe role. On one hand, I think it's a fair point; on the other, we know she's a Cultist. Not sure which way to take this, except that I'm not quite as ready to trust as some.

Wonko/Smart: I consider him soft-confirmed, both for acting as Phat's messenger and for passing his Seon to Meta. (I assume - Meta, is this true?)

 

I'd vote for Kipper/Burnt, but that would create a three-way tie. Clanky has claimed Debtor, and we've decided we don't want to kill a potential Village Elantrian (I think?) so...uh... Claincy. Sorry

 

Edit: Blue Text Awakener strikes again!

Edited June 20, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Metacognition]

*Sigh* Well then, I can't believe I'm doing this, but.... Claincy's life is spoken for. Araris. 

 

You owe me, Wilson.