Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Clanky he/him]

OK so I noticed unfortunately that my RPing has brought suspicion on me. The reason I haven't posted much actual content is because I didn't have anything to contribute. I have been wanting to do a fortune telling rp for a while and I thought that it would be best to do it early in the game before it got to be in the way of major discussion. I will try and post my thoughts when I get home from work in about 6 hours.

[dowanx]

Thanks for posting Karlin.  I am going to move my vote over to spencer.  I know he was on recently, but hasn't posted and I would still like to know what role manipulated his vote.  

 

As for the lynching lurkers/inactives strategy here are my reasons for advocating this strategy.  I started playing roughly around the AG game and ever since then I have seen how much damage lurkers can do.  I have not played nearly as many games as some of the other players but from my perspective they are not good for the village as a whole.  

 

Not only is getting rid of the lurker element good for the village, but it promotes discussion which is great for the village.  If you compare this to other LG games I think we are doing great so far on discussion.  We haven't found any cultists yet (it's only day 2), but I know my game notes are much larger then other LG games I have played which is a great sign.  

 

As for my target, I voted for Fel because he was the only inactive that I saw at the time that already had a vote on him and I didn't see him post anything saying he wouldn't be playing the first bit of this game.  

 

A valid point was brought up by Kasimir that poke votes have limited value if they don't respond with meaningful posts.  I agree somewhat to this.  We have to start somewhere when trying to draw inactives/lurkers into the game and this seems like the best method.

 

With all of that said if a valid target comes up for a lynch I will focus them.  However I believe going after lurkers/inactives this early in the game is a much better strategy then going after them mid game.  During the mid game we have a lot more information to go off of and voting for lurkers/inactives at that point makes less sense.

 

I would also like to point out that I find it more fun to play this game when there is activity in the forum which probably factored into why I decided to go strongly after lurkers/inactives early on this game. 

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I've been out of town, with no opportunity to post, since last Thursday. I posted that clearly in the thread, so anybody who was interested (in something other than just finding a convenient target, of course) should have known that I would be back on Tuesday. It's now Tuesday, and I'm back.

 

I haven't read through the whole thread yet (and can I mention how annoying it is that the Day 1 thread is mixed up with the sign-up thread? Totally awkward to try to read through.), but I will, and then I'll have something to say for sure. Until then, any votes would be only poke votes, and I don't even have a clear enough picture to do that effectively.

 

My apologies. I see, to have missed that post.

 

Dowanx, I would like to hear your defense. 

 

Edit: Somehow got ninja'd.

Edited May 26, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[dowanx]

Sure look three posts above.

[luckat she/her]

I’m really sorry I’ve been so inactive. I’ve been a lot busier than I thought I would be, and I haven’t had time to really look at what everyone’s said, let alone post. I’m trying to get my thoughts together, but I have a headache, so I don’t know how much sense I’ll make.

First, I’ll put up a current vote tally.

Dow (2): Jain, Bort
Hael (1): Clanky
Luckat (1): Kas
Wonko (1): Araris
Clanky (1): Kipper
Piff (1): Meta
Spencer (1): Dow

This isn’t necessarily complete because Elantrians could have voted, but they can only vote for each other and there’s only four of them right now so we probably don’t have to worry about that right now.

However, we don’t want to completely ignore the Elantrians. While it doesn’t seem likely the Cultists started with any (although they could have), and obviously none of them are the Gyorn, eventually there will be Cultists among them. Some of the things Phatt said last cycle seemed a bit suspicious, but now we can’t really talk to him about them. Obviously, voting for them wouldn’t be very useful right now because they could only respond through someone with a Seon and it wouldn’t be good to make them all Hoed. However, it would be good for some of the people with Seons to open discussion with them, if they haven’t already.

Regarding Orlok’s death, I agree with the others who have said there are too many possibilities for discussion about it to be very productive.

 

Who was Converted during the night and who was Converted during the first day? That way, we get two confirmed people who aren't the gyorn.

People can only be converted during the night. I agree with everyone who has said that whoever is converted should speak up. No one has yet that I’ve seen, so maybe the gyorn converted a lurker. For now, I think all we need to do about the gyorn is keep track of converts until we know more about their strategy.

 

3. I did a quick search on the player names since I couldn't sleep. Unless I've made a mistake somewhere (possible as Schechter would hold that one ought to hold rational self-doubt in the matter, and I'm sleep-deprived!Kas), the two with no standing reason for absence and who haven't said a thing (unlike Seonid, for instance) are Luckat and Ostrich. We know one is habitually silent. Ostrich wasn't in the AG but perhaps his teammates in MR6 could shed more light on this?

Spencer also hasn’t posted since signing up, and he didn’t give any reason for being inactive that I saw. What is also interesting is that his vote was used by a vote manipulator last cycle. I don’t know what to make of that, if anything.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Dowanx, you still have not responded to why you did a last minute bandwagon. Is lynching an inactive really that urgent? My vote holds.

Wilson, "perfectly good" was largely an exaggeration on my behalf. However, it was still better than a last-minute bandwagon.

[dowanx]

Jain, I didn't agree with the targets that were up for a lynch.  Both of the players were active and there wasn't any valid reasoning behind lynching either of them.  I thought and still do think that lynching an inactive is currently the best option for the village.  

 

That being said there was an another benefit from doing it last minute.  It generated a lot of discussion and more importantly we got to see last minute actions of several people which will be helpful later on.  If there wasn't a GM error we would of had even more information.  I am actually confused why you think it was a bad thing that it happened the way it did.  No one likes last minute bandwagons, but in this case I think it was valuable.

 

I stand by what I did, but I would like to ask you why are you focusing on me above others?  

[The Honey Badger he/him]

I think that we do need to focus on why they killed Orlock, why haven't they tried to take out some of the more experienced players? Why him? In the past have the more experienced guys been the first to go? It appeared that way in MR 6.

QUG-NFH-NSTBMYXSZ

[Tulir he/him]

2. Did anyone notice Winter Cloud is 'Winter Butt' on the player list?

Woah! How did that happen??? Tulir? Do you have some secret grudge against Winter Cloud that you haven't told me about?

Yeah, that's happened before on the Winter Butt thing. I believe it was MR 5 where it happened. Something about a pluggin that changes all instances of Cloud to Butt.

 

I don't like it, to say the least, but I know what causes it!

 

How about I just remove that extension for this game.  Sorry again, Winter, my mind just switches it to Cloud when i see it so I pay it no heed.  Apologies

[Aonar he/him]

Hmm... Locke is an interesting choice. While he proved himself plenty capable during QF7, was he really worth a first day hit? Why not Meta, or Wilson, or Vron, or any other potentially dangerous player? Perhaps because Locke had gotten close to the truth somewhere? Perhaps because he had been far off? Perhaps because they wanted suspicion cast on to, or away from, those who voted against him? Perhaps because one of the more experience players is evil? Perhaps because they want us to think they're evil? ...Perhaps even because they are, or are suspected to be, Lovers or Pirates paired with Cultists?

 

Vague, shoddy and inconclusive deductions all around. However, the single useful post Vron made last cycle peaked my interest, and it's related to one of the above points. He appeared to show particular interest in the Lovers/Pirates when no one else was really discussing it, and used it to justify the lack of a Day One lynch. This is odd in itself, albeit less so when one considers the possibility that Vron is a Lover/Pirate. If it were in conjunction with the role of a Cultist/Gyorn, it would make still more sense. I mean, who wants to lose two potential teammates the first day?
The jig is up, Wilson! : P
Sorry I don't have much to contribute. I might throw a transitory vote on Vron, for the time being, just to see how he responds. I’d like to note though, I may well not be able to get on and retract the vote if I need to. I’ve become busier still, and the SE is a distraction I can’t really afford at the moment. I shouldn’t be inactive too long, just a cycle or two, but I’d much appreciate it if y’all didn’t lynch me in the time being.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Ok, so I guess that I can see the reasoning behind lynching an inactive last cycle. Especially the way it was done, it didn't get in the way of regular discussion. But that isn't something we can do every cycle. The lynch won't have much pressure if we just turn around and kill somebody that wasn't contributing. I still want to hear an argument from Wonko in his own words, so my vote is staying put. I also was impressed with the cycle one discussion but not so much right now. I guess we don't have anything new to talk about so far. I'll stop back in at least twenty times before the cycle ends, so expect to hear from me again.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'll add a vote to Wonko for that last minute bandwagon and to tie things up. That bandwagon still seems very strange to me. I'd also like to note that I find Dow suspicious, for multiple reasons, one being that he is much more active than normal, but I don't want to discourage activity, so I won't vote for him yet.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I'm starting to appreciate the reasons for going after inactives at the end of a lynch. Only at the end, though; if the active players don't interact, it's pointless. To that end, some serious questions:

 

Bort: why put a second vote on Dowanx? Why not question, say, Wonko? (Wilson and Mek's motives are mostly clear by now, and Phattemer is beyond reach for discussion)

 

Wilson: what were your reasons for believing both Orlok and Mek were Citizens, beyond them being active in thread?

 

Maill: why try to set up a tie vote when we're not halfway through the cycle?

 

edit: grammar

Edited May 27, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Kasimir he/him]

Ostrich played the AG. That was his first game. The fact that you don't remember him isn't surprising though. He's typically borderline inactive. In MR6, he was around a bit in the planning, and he posted a little bit in the thread, but hardly at all until halfway through the game.

Remember when I said that thing about Sleep-Deprived!Kas? Because I remembered him from the AG--he was one of my initial suspects from the dead doc when Meta was trolling us. I thought I'd typed 'Ostrich was in the AG'. Definitely making mistakes here

Luckat: Apologies. I did see spencer but as I noticed people were already lighting a fire under his tail for the time being, I decided to ignore him. Forgot to mention that though :/

I'd also like to add to the reminders that Converts tell us about their new status. This may also allow the Priest(s) to eventually take appropriate action, though I believe they should at the moment focus on scanning for Cultists.

I'm going to put a vote on Wonko for a different reason. While I'm not a fan of stacking votes, there's sufficient time left in the cycle. I'll grant that vote manipulators are not safe roles, but I'm a bit twitchy at the idea of trying to figure out who they are and to thereby give Eliminators a narrow range of targets to go for. I mean, sure, they could figure it out for themselves. But I'm not a fan of trying to help the enemy.

And while I'm on the matter, please, please, please be careful about revealing your role, people, even if you are a vanilla. You're still helping the Cultists narrow down who to go after. People in Seon PMs are not necessarily telling the truth.

Only you can prevent Seon liars!

 

Edit because of mispelling 'Ostrich'.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Kasimir

[Alvron]

Hmm... Locke is an interesting choice. While he proved himself plenty capable during QF7, was he really worth a first day hit? Why not Meta, or Wilson, or Vron, or any other potentially dangerous player? Perhaps because Locke had gotten close to the truth somewhere? Perhaps because he had been far off? Perhaps because they wanted suspicion cast on to, or away from, those who voted against him? Perhaps because one of the more experience players is evil? Perhaps because they want us to think they're evil? ...Perhaps even because they are, or are suspected to be, Lovers or Pirates paired with Cultists?

 

Vague, shoddy and inconclusive deductions all around. However, the single useful post Vron made last cycle peaked my interest, and it's related to one of the above points. He appeared to show particular interest in the Lovers/Pirates when no one else was really discussing it, and used it to justify the lack of a Day One lynch. This is odd in itself, albeit less so when one considers the possibility that Vron is a Lover/Pirate. If it were in conjunction with the role of a Cultist/Gyorn, it would make still more sense. I mean, who wants to lose two potential teammates the first day?

The jig is up, Wilson! : P

Sorry I don't have much to contribute. I might throw a transitory vote on Vron, for the time being, just to see how he responds. I’d like to note though, I may well not be able to get on and retract the vote if I need to. I’ve become busier still, and the SE is a distraction I can’t really afford at the moment. I shouldn’t be inactive too long, just a cycle or two, but I’d much appreciate it if y’all didn’t lynch me in the time being.

I did not use the Pirates/Lovers to say we shouldn't lynch anyone.  I apologize if that was how it came across.

 

What I was trying to say is:

I don't agree with first day lynchings simply as we have no evidence to go off.  Sure we get evidence after the lynch but until we know the alignment of someone the discussions don't give us anything, and I don't like the idea of just killing someone just so we have something to work with the next day.  I am one of those that likes to sit back and wait.

 

With all the talk about how long we have and how best to find the gyorn, no one brought up the possibility of there being multiple deaths from lynching.  With the number of players I suspect 2-4 lovers and 3 pirates.  That's 7 players that could take another out with them.  And while a Debtor maybe a Lover I doubt that they are a Pirate so maybe it might be better to tie rather than force a lynch.

 

Now that I have (hopefully) make my position clearer on to today.

The fact that the convert hasn't come forward isn't all that surprising.  I can see four reasons why not.  

 

One: There was no convert.  This could be because the Gyorn is inactive or maybe wants to keep a low profile before making their move.

 

Two:  The convert became the Odiv.  Unlikely but possible.  Not smart if they want to remain hidden.  Revealing themselves buys good guy points.  Plus who would suspect the first one converted.

 

Three: The convert is inactive/Elantrian.  If so then they can't say anything.  If I was the gyorn, converting an Elantrian would be something I would do as they couldn't betray numbers and make a smart hiding place for the Odiv.

 

Four:  The converts aren't allowed to reveal names/numbers.  I am waiting on GM reply to this option.  Got reply.  They can reveal names and numbers.

 

Possible Five:  The convert is a Cultist and doesn't want to reveal themselves for fear of being lynched in case of suspected of being Odiv.  Only buys them one round so isn't a smart move.

 

I think option three is most likely but that is simply because it is something I would do.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Alvron

[Clanky he/him]

Ok now that I am back I promised to share my thoughts. 

 

Firstly I would like to add another option to Vrons post above.

 

Possibility 6: The convert is a regular Citizen who knows that by revealing they were converted it would increase their chances of being killed. Both the cultists and citizens would be more likely to kill converted people since it slows the countdown to the Gyorns win condition. 

 

Thought two: 

 

I still maintain some suspicion on Haelbarde but I will remove my vote for now. He hasn't added that much to the discussion (then again neither have I) and I still view the "darn someone good died posts" more likely as a Cultist plot to seem good.

 

Thought three:

 

I don't really have any other suspicions and I am sorry that my RP was distracting to some people but I am going to keep doing it. This is a roleplaying game after all and I did promise dowanx a reading(which will probably come later tonight). 

 

 

EDIT: Removed my vote retraction for haelbarde and put it in original voting post.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Clanky

[Seonid he/him]

It is interesting that nobody is coming forward to identify themselves as the convert, but maybe there's another way around this. I hereby declare that I am not the convert.

 

Is there anyone else who is willing to make a similar declaration? We can narrow it down by elimination if they won't come forward themselves.

[little wilson she/her]

Wilson: what were your reasons for believing both Orlok and Mek were Citizens, beyond them being active in thread?

 

For Mek, it was his genuine frustration. With the discussion being what it was, I can't see any reason why an eliminator would get that frustrated. That mostly cleared him for me. With Orlok, it was his post about the Korathi pendants. I see no reason for an eliminator to make a public declaration like that, as it only helps Team Good. After all, the pendants block a kill. The only kill role is the Cultists. I was more certain about Mek, but I was still pretty sure both were Citizens.

 

I'll take Seonid's idea: I am also not the Convert.

 

I am placing my vote on Maisao. It is unlikely to move. My gut tells me there's something off with him, and his post did nothing to alleviate those feelings and instead actually exacerbated them.

[Kasimir he/him]

I, too, am Spartacus! And so's my bro, Wyrm!

Ahem. I mean, I, too, am not a convert.

[Haelbarde he/him]

It is interesting that nobody is coming forward to identify themselves as the convert, but maybe there's another way around this. I hereby declare that I am not the convert.

 

Is there anyone else who is willing to make a similar declaration? We can narrow it down by elimination if they won't come forward themselves.

Well, sure, I can say the same thing. EDIT: To be clear, I am not a convert. But like I think people have raised, if I was Gyorn, I'd spend the first few rounds converting inactives to keep myself out of the picture till further into the game. So, I'm not sure how much value there would be in anyone saying that they're not. And if someone think's they have a good reason to not say, that won't stop them lying. Though, it is then interesting when someone else gets converted, and gives a list and it has active players who haven't said anything.

 

I still maintain some suspicion on Haelbarde but I will remove my vote for now. He hasn't added that much to the discussion (then again neither have I) and I still view the "darn someone good died posts" more likely as a Cultist plot to seem good.

Thank you Clanky. Been looking at Halo lore and such like, so I had that quote on my brain. I've learnt my lesson, so I'll avoid doing it in the future. The post (coming only a few minutes after the thread came up, and when it seemed there was lots of weirdness with the votes/lynch) was meant to be a nothingness post till I could go back through and double check what we expected and what then we could say about the lynch.

 

EDIT: What I'm struggling with is trying to work out people. This is the first time I'm playing with people like Kas, Wilson, Claincy. I've got no reference for what they're like to interact with. I guess I've been hoping I could work out someone who I could trust with basically no reservations. 

 

---

What would really help us this game is if we manage to hook up a priest with a Citizen with a Seon. Then we could start calling shots if the Priest finds any elliminators. But I guess that's going to take a couple cycles for the Priest(s) to scan enough people. 

Edited May 27, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Wilson, you're doing this again. No offense, but you're not that great at catching me when I'm evil. You tend to do the opposite: Lynch me when I'm good. 

 

I tied the vote a bit before midway into the cycle so that there is ample time for the Debtor and Vote Changers to get their actions/votes in so we can see the difference. 

 

I have a contact with a Seon. If someone wants to get a player into PMs, try to let me know and I'll let the Seon holder know with a code.

1452 389283 390 83957.

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Mmph.

 

I bet after how much I posted last Day Cycle, you guys expected me to keep to that pattern. Obviously, I haven't. Most of my theories died with Orlok, and the fact that he wasn't in love with Araris.

 

There's a line of reasoning that I want to address, though: That of wanting to kill Dowanx or Wonko for starting the lynch train last night: I think it's totally wrong. 

 

We have proven that both me (at the time) and Orlok were innocent 100%. It's been GM certified. Both of us were perfectly viable lynch targets last cycle. Two villager lynch targets. Why, may I ask, would the Eliminators attempt to start a Bandwagon on a random inactive when they could easily cut down on the number of actively posting players? In fact, I posit that that's exactly what they did. Look at the voting manipulation performed on me! Orlok and Araris couldn't account for the royal who brought Stephen onto me and the Keeper who secretly voted for me at the same time. They tried to kill me! Even if the voting manipulation onto me could be attributed to other sources (unlikely, seeing as from what I'm reading, most people were leaning towards my side of the Mek/Orlok thing,) why completely upend this wonderful cycle with a random attempt at a bandwagon? So imprecise, random, and pointless. It makes absolutely no sense.

 

I sort of want to slap Lightsworn on the wrist for being so aggressive in pursuing this line of reasoning, but I'll resist voting for him until he tells his side again, since I can see how it could be appealing. That being said, I don't really have anyone in mind for lynching right now. We'll see what goes down.

 

Oh, and for the record, I voted for Fel because I saw him as a workable alternative for Orlok, for whom I had sort of lost my confidence in as a target. It was basically that simple.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Mckeedee123

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I actually do think it is interesting that the Eliminators tried to kill one of the people the village was looking at lynching, and then ended up taking another one of them down with the night kill.

 

Anyway, as far as me not being lovers with Orlok, well, I'm just honest with my opinions. Even when I was an eliminator in the Shard game, I still took a position that felt honest to me; that the game would have been boring for non-eliminators. I'm not sure that any real lovers would act so overtly to protect each other, since as has been pointed out, it just gives the eliminators a two for one kill option.

[Clanky he/him]

I am not a convert. Now I am not sure how useful this process of elimination to determine the convert is. The Gyorn may only be targeting inactives but eventually someone who will give us a list will be converted. i suppose it could help us catch someone in a lie but it would be a stupid risk to take for someone to lie about something that is so easily found to be a lie. 

 

I have decided to put my vote on Twelfth for now. He put a poke vote on Wonko and said he would change his vote later. He never changed his vote and I would like a reason why. Also during the day asked why Bort wasn't voting or Wonko. Do you have a reason for suspecting Wonko that lead to these actions? It isn't much to go on but I do find these two things together to be slightly off.

 

--------

 

"Ok Dow I need you to stay calm during this process. Any aggressive or abrupt thoughts can throw off my focus."

 

Clankii hadn't wanted to do any more readings after yesterdays events. He had spent the majority of the day on his own searching for a way out of the palace but had found nothing. Eventually he had realized what he needed to do. He would continue reading anyone who let him as his way of helping to find the Cultists.

 

But this time he would be doing it for real. Not just telling people what they wanted to hear and hoping they would help add to his fame. No, everyone here knew they were in danger so he wouldn't hide it from now on he would tel everything he saw and not just say things to make people feel good. 

 

He had remembered hearing Dow ask for a reading the night before and had gone to seek him out. 

 

"I see in your future threats to your life all around. But that is not all I see... I see a long life living on your farm with bountiful harvests. I see your children taking over your farm when you are no longer able."

 

That was not what I was expecting. After what I saw in Kae and Kaians future I never expected to see anything past this palace. Maybe our future is not set, we can still make it out of here, we just need to work together.

 

"It is true your life is in danger, you may not leave this palace alive but if I can see past it for you then there is still hope for all of us. Don't despair my friends. We may yet live"

 

 

EDIT: Speling

Edited May 27, 2015 by Clanky

[Haelbarde he/him]

Curious, is Claincy usually quiet when he plays? He's only popped in once or twice (I think?).

 

---

 

Edrab had continued to take notes, with more stuff continuing to happen. One person lost their life as an arugment turned ugly, and then during the night, another person was found dead with a knife in the back, being, without a doubt, another victim of the Jeskeri cultists. The Shaod also took one of those who had been confined to the area. He was summarily banished to Elantris, where the rest lived out their unending days of misery.

 

He also moved around through the crowds, listening into conversations, noting down who was actively participating, and who was suspicious of whom. It might come in handy a bit later, he thought to himself. While continuing to listen in on conversations, he heard was seemed to a fortuneteller. He listened to a few people ask the man, who went by the name Clankii, for their fortune. After the current person asked for their fortune, Edrab decided to approach Clankii. "Would you mind telling my fortune afterwards?" I couldn't hurt, he reasoned. Something interesting to put in the book at least, he was sure.