Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[phattemer]

wilson, Aonar is viewing it now

[the winter system]

Technially, if the Jeskeri don't hit a Derethi any night, then the threat is two a night. If we lynch a non Derethi every day, then the threat is two a day. Because it doesn't matter if they're dead or converted. Just a brief clarification on that.

[little wilson]

Technially, if the Jeskeri don't hit a Derethi any night, then the threat is two a night. If we lynch a non Derethi every day, then the threat is two a day. Because it doesn't matter if they're dead or converted. Just a brief clarification on that.

 

But that's combining both Eliminator teams. The point of this particular discussion is about whether to focus on the Gyorn/Odiv or the Cultists and how much attention we should place on either. While, yes, the full eliminator threat is a maximum of 2/night, the threat of the Gyorn himself is only 1/night.

[the winter system]

Oh, that makes more sense. Perhaps we should split our attention. Day 1: Lynch people we suspect of being gyorn. Day 2: Lynch Jesker suspects. Day 3: Lynch gyorn/odiv suspects. Though that doesn't really make sense. I mean that the gyorn will act suspicious along with the Jeskers, but in different ways.

[Mckeedee123]

I'm going to leave my vote where it lies for now.

 

What? Why? Didn't you just write a page-long post about your initial vote being an effort to balance the discussion? Do you not understand that there is a connection between voting and the actual lynch? There were about 4 hours left in the cycle at the time of your post. Could you please clarify this? Because from what you've written, it doesn't seem as if you think you have an actual reason to kill me.

 

Your vote on me did not balance the discussion, either. Not by a long shot. What it did was put me and Orlok into separate, polarized camps. We've spent most of these last 45 hours throwing lynch arguments at one another! This is Day One. Day. Stinking. One. We honestly should not have had to have been at each others' throats like that.

 

Here's the other thing about Day One: We don't need to quibble about the exact accuracy of the lynch, and in this case, I think it is quite evidently in our best interest to kill someone, even if we aren't close to certain about them. What turned me on to Orlok initially was, yes, his quick and somewhat nonsensical refutation of Kasimir's post, but what's kept my vote on him is that his arguments have been (I'm sort of frustrated, which is turning me into a slontze) consistently nonsensical. I'm like, 60% sure that he's a villager, but that's the best set of odds I can come up with. That's it.

 

Lastly, on an unrelated note: The question of whether to focus on the Derethi or the Cult.

 

Sigh...  (Again, me being a slontze right now.)

 

I'm just going to get this one out of the way, right now, because it seems as if some people are starting to pick up on it. The fact is: Discussion just doesn't work like that. Discussion in SE is basically just people pointing out things that are relevant to the game. As such, I find the idea of "focusing" discussion to be plain ridiculous. There is... more than enough time, and more than enough space, to discuss both Eliminator groups, and, in fact, that is exactly what is going to happen as soon as Day 2 hits and we stop being so interested in game mechanics. Clear? We will focus on both groups. It's just what's going to happen.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Mckeedee123

[Bort]

I'm back, and have caught up on the thread, but I'm too tired to come to any deep conclusions from what was said. I'm tempted to go for a pointless poke vote on Wilson because I think she is sounding a little pro-Gyorn there, but that's just impending sleep talking. So, no vote from me. Sorry if any debtors die.

 

Good night all

[the winter system]

Why can't we focus equally on both? (Last post for the cycle, I have to go)

[Mckeedee123]

Why can't we focus equally on both? (Last post for the cycle, I have to go)

 

Are you replying to me? Because that's exactly what I just said. I'm very confused.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Mckeedee123

[dowanx]

Ok guys sorry it took me so long to get time to actually sit down and type, but here are my thoughts.

 

In my opinion our largest threat is lurkers.  If you are wondering why go read MR6.   

 

Also if we go after lurkers we will be targeting both the cultists and Gyorn or at least forcing them to be vocal which doesn't benefit them.  I don't know why we are even discussing who we should be focusing.  What we should be doing is trying to get everyone to be more vocal.  It is way to early in the game to try to focus on a specific target. 

 

I hope you all agree we should go after the lurkers, but as I was thinking how best to do this I came across a problem.  This game has a twist that I haven't seen anyone mention.  How do we actually know if someone is lurking and not simply an Elantrain.  This seems like a problem until we can get some conversation with the Elantrain side.  

That being said I am going to vote for spencer12347 as I haven't seen anything from him.  

Edited May 25, 2015 by dowanx

[Mckeedee123]

In my opinion our largest threat is lurkers.  If you are wondering why go read MR6.   

 

I hope you all agree we should go after the lurkers, but as I was thinking how best to do this I came across a problem.  This game has a twist that I haven't seen anyone mention.  How do we actually know if someone is lurking and not simply an Elantrain.  This seems like a problem until we can get some conversation with the Elantrain side.  

 

That being said I am going to vote for spencer12347 as I haven't seen anything from him.  

 

As to the first one: I suppose I agree.

 

As to the second one: We know who the Elantrians are. So there.

 

As to the third one: You have 2 hours before your poke vote becomes a real vote. You might want to make it mean something (I'm beginning to think no one bothered to read my little rant back there.)

[dowanx]

Wait we know which players are the Elantrains?  Is that listed somewhere?

[little wilson]

 

 (I'm beginning to think no one bothered to read my little rant back there.)

 

I read it, but even after having read it, I don't see why you're so set on going after Orlok. Just because you misunderstood what he was saying doesn't mean everyone did. Just because you disagree with him doesn't make him a Cultist. You said you're 60% sure he's a villager. Since you're so preoccupied with votes becoming actual lynches, why would you keep a vote on someone who you're only 40% sure is an eliminator? Are you somehow less suspicious of virtually everyone else? Including those who haven't said a word, despite their silence being against their normal playstyle?

 

I don't like the idea of being required to kill someone right now, but since it's a necessity, I'd much prefer it be someone who is viewing the thread and not contributing than someone who actually is contributing. Those contributions are more likely to show inconsistencies as the game goes on and that's the best way to find the eliminators.

 

Wait we know which players are the Elantrains?  Is that listed somewhere?

 

Here.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, that was more of an explanation for Kas, since he asked what made my vote different from yours. I really don't know who else to vote for, since I think that both Kas and Orlok were making legitimate arguments.

[Mckeedee123]

I read it, but even after having read it, I don't see why you're so set on going after Orlok. Just because you misunderstood what he was saying doesn't mean everyone did. Just because you disagree with him doesn't make him a Cultist. You said you're 60% sure he's a villager. Since you're so preoccupied with votes becoming actual lynches, why would you keep a vote on someone who you're only 40% sure is an eliminator? Are you somehow less suspicious of virtually everyone else? Including those who haven't said a word, despite their silence being against their normal playstyle?

 

I'm so going overboard with this.

 

But... You can't seriously be misunderstanding what I'm saying, right? You have to be messing with me right now. I just said why 40% is a reason to kill someone: It's because it's better than the odds of everyone else. Someone is dying this round, do you understand that? And I'd take a 2/5 chance over a 1/6 chance any day of the week.

 

EDIT: Well, sure, Alvron is definitely suspicious to me right now, so you might have a point there.

 

Well, that was more of an explanation for Kas, since he asked what made my vote different from yours. I really don't know who else to vote for, since I think that both Kas and Orlok were making legitimate arguments.

 

Actually, come to think of it, I think I understand what's happening a lot better now. Judging by your insistence on voting for me despite your absolute lack of any reasoning, if you and Orlok aren't in wuv  right now, I'll eat my hat.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Mckeedee123

[Mailliw73]

I have to confess, after reading everything, Orlok's arguments seem much more flimsy than Mek's. I'm going to tie the vote there for now. This will draw out the vote manipulators/debtor, so we can gauge that too. Meta.

[little wilson]

 

But... You can't seriously be misunderstanding what I'm saying, right? You have to be messing with me right now. I just said why 40% is a reason to kill someone: It's because it's better than the odds of everyone else. Someone is dying this round, do you understand that? And I'd take a 2/5 chance over a 1/6 chance any day of the week.

 

No, I'm not messing with you at all. We apparently look at this game from a different angle, it seems like. It appears that you take the ratio of eliminators to villagers and apply it to everyone, which is how you're getting the 5/6 chance (aka 83%) that everyone else is a villager. Which makes Orlok's 60% chance of being a villager your biggest suspect. However, I look at the game starting every single player at most at 50% chance of being a villager (some, like Meta, Gamma, and Alv, start significantly lower than 50%). I know that most of the players I'm talking to are villagers but it's not like I know who those are. If you want to play with an "Innocent until Proven Guilty" track, that's up to you. But I hear "60% villager," and I think "There's got to be someone who's lower than that." Until you explained it the way you just did, I assumed you started players at 50% as well.

 

And yes. I do understand someone has to die this round. Don't be condescending. I get that you're frustrated, but this is a game. If you want to know my reasons for saying what I did, ask. Until then, take a breath. Calm down. Frustration won't help discussion.

[Clanky]

@wilson

 

I have been paying attention to the thread but not posting because I have been busy. I worked all day yesterday and today and was out all last night. I was planning on contributing more once I got back from work but at the moment the thread seemed like a fairly hostile environment for those posting. I won't be as active as normal in this game because I have a weird work schedule for the next few weeks. I normally just have time to read the thread during my breaks and can only post at nights.

[Mckeedee123]

And yes. I do understand someone has to die this round. Don't be condescending. I get that you're frustrated, but this is a game. If you want to know my reasons for saying what I did, ask. Until then, take a breath. Calm down. Frustration won't help discussion.

 

Sigh... Yeah, I'm not trying to be condescending. There's a lot of frustration leaking through right now, but mostly it's just that I'm trying to be direct as possible. I've seen this coming for a day and a half, and up to an hour ago I think I've kept my arguments pretty tactful while trying to be honest and clear. Still, it's frustrated me that people aren't responding, and those votes aren't going anywhere. Well, now it's down to the wire, and I don't have time to waste making my arguments for killing people sound nice. Sorry, though.

 

EDIT: Come to think of it, my last 3 posts make me want to downvote myself

Edited May 25, 2015 by Mckeedee123

[Aonar]

Nathanael was standing at the back of the crowd when Patriarch Seinalan collapsed. Despite the glasses that he wore, his eyesight was more than good enough to pick out the sigil carving itself into the man's chest. Tasting vomit in the back of his mouth, he tried to analyze the situation dispassionately. Despite the chaos that had broken out with the Patriarch's apparent death, Nathanael had still managed to see enough of the symbol to assume that it was likely Old Duladen, or maybe Fjordell. Given the context, and what little of the Patriarch's announcement had been heard, Duladen seemed more likely.

 

Most assumed the Mysteries to be nothing more than a backwater cult, but he'd long suspected otherwise. From his studies at the university, he'd learned that almost every nation had some magic of it's own. Some were well known, like Arelon's own Elantrians, or MaiPon's Forgers, but there were hints of others all across Opelon. Jindoneese warriors applying impossible strength, Fjordell monks harnessing dark rituals; who was to say that the Jeskeri didn't have a bit of real power?

 

Discussion broke out almost immediately, even before the Patriarch's body was dragged away. Merciful Domi. Practical, given the circumstances, but can't they show just a shred of respect?

 

Looking around, he caught a glare from one of the cleaning staff. The man's gaze didn't waver, even as Nathanael started to push his way through the crowd. He shivered slightly. Creepy blighter.

 

The guards had locked them all in the palace, and while that was annoying, and a touch illogical, it did confer a few benefits. For one, the Patriarch's body couldn't be removed if no one could enter or leave to take it. If there was one thing Nathanael was sure of, it was that he wanted to get a look at that body.

 

As he shouldered his way through the crowd, picking out random threads of conversations. A large group was discussing the possibility of the Derethi capitalizing upon the confusion of Patriarch's death to forcibly convert Arelon. Hmm... that's a valid concern. One could argue that people who kill, as opposed to merely changing one's religious views, are more dangerous, but one would destroy Arelon as surely as the other.

 

Another, smaller group discussed the danger of cooping up a bunch of scared and desperate people. People were going to start doing stupid things eventually, and stupid things had a tendency to lead to stupider things, which eventually lead to people ending up dead. As Nathanael saw it, there wasn't much to be done. It was the nature of things for people to lash out when threatened, and for all the harm it could cause, it could sometimes be just what was needed to find the truth. He'd seen it more times than times than he would've liked, although the idea still made him nauseous.

 

Leaving the main hall, he quickly caught up with the guards carrying off Seinalan's body. "What do you plan to do with the Patriarch?"

 

The guards turned, surprised. "He's to be buried on the grounds somewhere. It's the best we can give him, given the situation."

 

"Well you're going to have to wait. He needs an autopsy. We need to know exactly what killed him."

 

One of the guards raised a hand to the Korathi pendant around his neck, looking grim. "We already know what did it. Magic."

 

"Maybe, maybe not. Sometimes the mundane can be made to look supernatural, and sometimes the magical looks everyday. I can tell the difference."

 

They looked hesitant. Nathanael kept speaking, trying to be persuasive. "You can trust me. I'm a doctor. Certified in Seraven and everything." Not a medical doctor, but what's the difference, right?

 

Reluctantly, they agreed. "Alright. I'll need a clean, preferably cool work-space, a few candles, several sharp knives, a small saw, and some hedge-clippers, if you can spare them."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

In case you can't tell, I'm advocating moderation here. Both the Gyorn and the Cultists are dangerous, albeit in different ways. A couple good points have already been made about how to hamstring the Gyorn, but beyond that, we'll just have to deal with things as they come, and there's little point to discussing the merits of focusing on one or the other. This does make me vaguely suspicious of Orlock, but I can understand how the Gyorn could seem less immediately threatening then the Cultists, so I'll give him a pass for now. 

 

Alvron is currently suspicious to me on principle, as is everyone else advocating a lack of a day one lynch, whatever their reasoning. While in this game a lynch can be more dangerous than usual, so can any other kill. Also, as the Dula/Pirates have no idea of the roles of others, we are equally likely to do help as harm to ourselves. It's basically a small chance to add another random kill on top of the others made; it must be taken into account, but it cannot be taken as reasoning for or against lynching.

 

Mek is also suspicious, even though he takes a stance I for the most part agree with. It's how he's going about it that is what's striking an off note. There's honest vehemence there. It could just be frustration at being misunderstood over what seems a simple issue, and it could have to do with the fact he's strongly implied that he's a debtor. Or it could be both. However, he might be on the defensive for darker reasons, as well.

 

And that's my two cents. Sorry. I've been out of town most of the weekend, and haven't had the chance to get in to this game. It might take a while, as I'm going to be busy for a couple weeks. I don't feel confident enough to put a vote on any of the three above, so I'll leave things in that regard as they are.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Aonar Faileas

[little wilson]

Sigh... Yeah, I'm not trying to be condescending. There's a lot of frustration leaking through right now, but mostly it's just that I'm trying to be direct as possible. I've seen this coming for a day and a half, and up to an hour ago I think I've kept my arguments pretty tactful while trying to be honest and clear. Still, it's frustrated me that people aren't responding, and those votes aren't going anywhere. Well, now it's down to the wire, and I don't have time to waste making my arguments for killing people sound nice. Sorry, though.

 

EDIT: Come to think of it, my last 3 posts make me want to downvote myself

 

Don't worry about it. You've caught it and that's the important part.

 

There's 40 minutes left in the cycle. Right now it's a tie between Orlok and Mek. I'm going to be honest here: I don't think either of them are eliminators. I suppose I'm slightly more suspicious of Orlok than Mek, but that's not really saying much since there are a number of people who I suspect far more. Clanky's given a suitable reason, and Dow and Aonar checked in. Fel, however, has checked the forum since my post calling him out, and he didn't say anything. Therefore, my vote is going there. I understand that the odds are low that he'll check again before the end of the cycle, but that's fine. Clankii. Feligon.

 

As for my reasons about choosing a quasi-inactive over someone like Orlok: Thread discussion is what drives this game and is the best way for us to find eliminators. If Orlok is an eliminator, we'll see more evidence of it tomorrow. However, we need to find someone to lynch today, since someone has to die. True inactives will be replaced by pinch-hitters. But players who are feigning inactivity? They won't be replaced. They'll just keep not contributing to the discussion. That doesn't help us. In normal games, I don't typically advocate lynching inactives right off the bat, but for this? Yeah. It's a lot better than killing the people contributing to discussions, since we're guaranteed to catch eliminators talking in thread this early. Just give it more than a turn.

[Metacognition]

Nathanael went off after the guards that were taking away the Patriarch's body and as MenE lost sight of him, his attention shifted back to something that had been nagging him since early on: Why had Duke Pifferdan only spoken up to let everyone know he was innocent and then draw back and away from the rest of the debate?

[Mckeedee123]

Don't worry about it. You've caught it and that's the important part.

 

There's 40 minutes left in the cycle. Right now it's a tie between Orlok and Mek. I'm going to be honest here: I don't think either of them are eliminators. I suppose I'm slightly more suspicious of Orlok than Mek, but that's not really saying much since there are a number of people who I suspect far more. Clanky's given a suitable reason, and Dow and Aonar checked in. Fel, however, has checked the forum since my post calling him out, and he didn't say anything. Therefore, my vote is going there. I understand that the odds are low that he'll check again before the end of the cycle, but that's fine. Clankii. Feligon.

 

As for my reasons about choosing a quasi-inactive over someone like Orlok: Thread discussion is what drives this game and is the best way for us to find eliminators. If Orlok is an eliminator, we'll see more evidence of it tomorrow. However, we need to find someone to lynch today, since someone has to die. True inactives will be replaced by pinch-hitters. But players who are feigning inactivity? They won't be replaced. They'll just keep not contributing to the discussion. That doesn't help us. In normal games, I don't typically advocate lynching inactives right off the bat, but for this? Yeah. It's a lot better than killing the people contributing to discussions, since we're guaranteed to catch eliminators talking in thread this early. Just give it more than a turn.

 

It's true, I'll admit. I don't know if you caught my edit on #87, but Alv's behavior is not what I would expect from him. He's only posted once and that post wasn't very relevant.

[Wonko the Sane]

I will pick Mek over Orlok. That's almost entirely gut, but it's better than a debtor.

 

However, if we can swing the vote over to Piff or spencer -- or another inactive -- in the next fifteen minutes, you have my vote. right now, though, it would be useless to add it on there.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Wonko the Sane

[little wilson]

It's true, I'll admit. I don't know if you caught my edit on #87, but Alv's behavior is not what I would expect from him. He's only posted once and that post wasn't very relevant.

 

He's posted twice. He had the irrelevant one to Hero last night and then he had another one earlier today more pertinent to the discussion.

 

EDIT: His second post is here.

[dowanx]

As I previously stated I think lurkers are our biggest threat.  I will take you up on your offer wonko and lets try to lynch someone who isn't contributing to the forum.  spencer12347 Feligion.