Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Mailliw73]

No, but if it's like LG11, they can do with Newan and Aonar did with switching your role. 

[Haelbarde]

Expanding what Mailliw73 said, in LG11, Dowanx was in the same position as you. If Hero/Tulir do the same thing, you'd take on the alignment/role of Fel.

[Mckeedee123]

No, but if it's like LG11, they can do with Newan and Aonar did with switching your role. 

 

Can they? Well, alright, then.

[Tulir]

Ok, yup. 

 

Sorry.

 

I had the writeup all set and then things happened. 

 

Let me see what I can do.

[Herowannabe]

Sorry everyone, I take a good deal of the blame. I had RL stuff pop up (My sister got into town RIGHT at 9:00 and a 5-minute visit turned into 1 hour) and I was AFK for a big chunk of town, leaving Tulir to flounder about in the sea of last minute changes all on his own.

 

I have reviewed the vote tally that Tulir posted. It was 99% correct (aside from the actual lynch victim, of course). Here is the official, double checked vote tally:

 

Vote Count:

Locke: 1 (Mail)

Mainem: 4 (Orlock, Araris, Spencer12347)

General Hobbes: 1 (Claincy)

Arfear Quinn: 1 (Kas)

Duke Pifferdan: 1 (Meta)

Fernarnia: 6 (Wilson, Dow, Wonko, Mckeede, phattamer)

Won LenReen: 1 (twelthroottwo)

 

Still figuring out how to handle this. Tulir, if/when you see this, please PM me.

 

EDIT:

 

 

Expanding what Mailliw73 said, in LG11, Dowanx was in the same position as you. If Hero/Tulir do the same thing, you'd take on the alignment/role of Fel.

 

This makes the most sense to me, and is probably what will happen.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Mailliw73]

I think Aonar and Newan's solution was pretty effective. So, that'd be killing Fel and giving Mek his role/alignment.

 

With Spencer's vote, we now can see that the Prince/Princess was active. There was also a mix of two secret votes, two king/Queens, or one of each.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Mailliw73

[Tulir]

Echoing what Hero said, that was what I was thinking as well, give us a couple more minutes.

 

Edit sort of:  Ok, everything should be fixed and up to date now, apologies for everything

[Mailliw73]

Glad that all got worked out.

[Haelbarde]

I think Aonar and Newan's solution was pretty effective. So, that'd be killing Fel and giving Mek his role/alignment.

 

With Spencer's vote, we now can see that the Prince/Princess was active. There was also a mix of two secret votes, two king/Queens, or one of each.

You're not quite right there Mailliw, I don't think. 

 

The two things to consider:

• Spencer
• Bonus Votes

Spencer did not post here and vote. (Did he even post at all?) Yet, his vote has appeared. Yes, it could be the Prince/Princess, or it could be the Duke/Duchess (also a possibility).

 

Then we have two bonus votes - one on Fel and one on Mckeedee. Yup, one of the voters on each could be a/the King/Queen (GM Question: Is it possible for there to be multiple King/Queens or will there be just one - I was presuming there will only be one). The Keepers of the Tunnel also get secret votes, so presumably one of those was active.

 

Just wanted to highlight all the possibilities.

 

EDIT:

GM Question: So, can we then conclude that Mckeedee is not a Citizen Keeper of the Tunnel?  (I would have thought that is not impossible that Fel could have the same role and alignment)

Edited May 25, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Metacognition]

Well, it does kind of make the day a bit of a wash though (It's night time and I'm being lazy, so no RP from me right now). I'm not complaining, as I think this is the fairest route to go with, but it means that now, a lot of the reasons behind who voted for whom within the situation can't be counted on. 

 

We can't count on any of Mek's previous arguments to make any sense now. For all we know, we could have gotten lucky and lynched a Cultist right there, but now, it's all still up in the air. 

I was planning on coming in, considering I asked any village vote manipulation roles to hold off, and pointing out that Mek was likely good due to the manipulation that tried to get him lynched before everyone did so many changes near the end there (this still tells us plenty though. It means that those vote manipulations likely weren't on in time to switch their actions around the end of the day...), but now, all of that is again up in the air. 

 

We lost not only a solid argument for Mek being a Villager, but also a lot of the drive behind the arguments and discussion behind Mek's almost lynch; which is one of our greatest tools to finding the Cultists.

 

Again, this is still the fairest of all options that I can see, but now we have to start from scratch within many notions as well and we shouldn't forget that. 

 

Edit: Also, what's up with the "Late Votes" tag? Is it a forum change? Will everything now have a tag in front of it? 

Edited May 25, 2015 by Metacognition

[Haelbarde]

Edit: Also, what's up with the "Late Votes" tag? Is it a forum change? Will everything now have a tag in front of it? 

Well, at least over on the MBI, there's a checkbox that lets you make the first tag appear next to the topic name like that.

 

EDIT: Yup, there's a checkbox that lets you make the first tag a prefix. Been there on the MBI for ages, can't comment about it here. Has the update happened yet?

Edited May 25, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Lightsworn Panda]

I've been playing pretty passively and quietly in my previous games, and I just so happen to be neutral/evil in most of them, so before anyone works out that I'm an Eliminator before anyone lynches me for that, I'd like to chip into the discussion with my two cents about potential Convert targets and other Gyorn-related thoughts.

 

The Gyorn is different to the JC (I'm going to abbreviate the Cultists to that for now, since I'm that lazy) in the respect that he/she is not necessarily going to try to target the most experienced or influential players. An Eliminator's objective is to simply kill everyone, so it makes sense that they would try to kill the most dangerous Villagers first. The Gyorn (and Odiv), however, have to target everyone and keep them alive while they're at it. The Gyorn has to think carefully about who to target, especially during the early-game, since every Convert that dies is an action/Night wasted. An experienced/influential runs too much risk of being killed at some point by the JC, or may end up getting lynched.  Therefore, the Gyorn will probably target more "safer" options, like  recluse players, or people that like to snoop around the edge of the radar trying to stay alive (*Cough* totally unlike me *Cough*). Inactives would be a rather dangerous pick though, since there's a general "lynch-the-inactives" vibe during the mid-game. 

 

Around the mid-game, when there's about 5 or more Converted, the Gyorn will probably run out of safe picks (There should be around 10 dead players by then), and will have to start picking more risky targets. The Gyorn's chances of dying are much larger, and as a result he will be pressured into picking an Odiv.

 

Funnily enough, the Gyorn probably has the most vote control in the game. As soon as two Conversions start showing up, the Convert list will become a lynch list. 

 

The Gyorn will have a quiet play-style early game, since it's the most vulnerable part of the game for him/her. He/She definitely won't have enough Converts then, and he most likely won't have an Odiv.

 

TL;DR: The Gyorn most likely will target quiet players tonight.

 

Has anyone noticed that this thread has a "Late Votes" thing next to it?

 

Edit: Colour. And I'm spelling it with a "u".

Edited May 25, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[Wonko the Sane]

NOTE: This took a long time to put together, so I’ve been ninja’d on some of the more obvious conclusions, but I think there’s enough new thoughts that I should post it.

 

So, there were some shenanigans on that vote. Maybe not as many as I had thought, since the biggest has turned out to be a GM error, but still plenty. I’m going to attempt to sort them out here; hopefully that will help us figure out why the vote manipulators did what they did.

 

Here’s the way the final votes should have looked:

 

OrlokTsubodai: 1 (Mailliw73)

Mckeedee123: 2 (OrlokTsubodai, Araris Valerian)

Kipper: 1 (lord Claincy Ffnord)

Araris Valerian: 1 (Kasimir)

Lord Pifferdoo: 1 (Metacognition)

Feligon: 5 (little wilson, dowanx, Wonko the Sane, Mckeedee123, phattemer)

Wonko the Sane: 1 (twelfthrootoftwo)

 

Here’s the way they actually looked (post-correction):

 

OrlokTsubodai: 1 (Mailliw73)

Mckeedee123: 4 (OrlokTsubodai, Araris Valerian, spencer12347)

Kipper: 1 (lord Claincy Ffnord)

Araris Valerian: 1 (Kasimir)

Lord Pifferdoo: 1 (Metacognition)

Feligon: 6 (little wilson, dowanx, Wonko the Sane, Mckeedee123, phattamer)

Wonko the Sane: 1 (twelfthrootoftwo)

 

So the discrepancies are one extra vote on Mek, one extra vote on Fel, and the addition of Spencer’s name to the list. Next, I’ve assembled an exhaustive list of ways that the voting outcome can vary from the prediction:

 

The Dula: Any time the Dula is voted against, the number of votes is reduced by one.

The Lovers: If a player attempts to vote for their lover, it will count as if they did not cast a vote.

Prince/Princess: The Prince or Princess can a non-voting player to cast a vote.

Duke/Duchess: The Duke or Duchess may change any one voting player’s vote, or cause a non-voting player to cast a vote.

Duke/Duchess Partner: The Partner may change the Duke’s/Duchess’s vote, cause them to vote if they do not, or cause them not to vote, the turn after they are selected.

King/Queen: The King’s or Queen’s vote counts as two votes.

Keeper of the Secret Tunnels: The Keeper may choose to cast a vote in secret. If they do, their vote will count invisibly in the tally, while any vote they make publicly will be listed, but will not be tallied.

Elantrians: Votes cast by Elantrians against other Elantrians will not be made public until the write-up.

 

Of those, we can immediately rule out Elantrians and Partners, for obvious reasons. Additionally, we know no Duke/Duchess changed a player’s vote, nor did any player vote for their Lover, as all names besides Spencer’s are where they should be. Spencer’s name was added by Prince, Princess, Duke, or Duchess. No tally is lower than predicted, so any votes on the Dula or negated public votes by Keepers must be balanced by a vote by the King/Queen or a secret vote by a Keeper. For now, I will allow Occam’s razor to rule that possibility out.

 

That leaves votes by the King/Queen and secret votes by Keepers to account for our two extra votes. I find it likely that the King/Queen would choose to vote, as their vote is highly significant. This leaves one vote to Keepers, barring the unlikely possibility that we have multiple Kings and/or Queens, Narnia-style.

 

Finally, on the subject of Spencer’s vote, I find it interesting that it was not included on the first edition of the final tally. This is obviously a GM error, and there’s a good chance that it was caused by the same issue as the Mek fiasco – last-minute actions. So I checked it out, and found that a number of players were not online late enough to cause an issue; these players are thus unlikely to be the noble who made Spencer vote.

 

I’ll conclude with a summary of the things I’ve worked out from that vote. NOTE: in the following section, I use Feligon’s name to refer to the Village Keeper of the Secret Tunnels who was lynched by a vote of 6, and Mek’s name to refer to the player who came in second place, who went by the name of Feligon on Day One.

 

MY DEDUCTIONS

 

The following are NOT Lover pairs: Orlok and Maill, Mek and Dow, Mek and Wilson, Mek and Phattemer, Mek and Wonko, Kipper and Claincy, Araris and Kasimir, Piff and Meta, Twei and Wonko.

 

The King/Queen is among the following players: Orlok, Dow, Araris, Wilson, Phattemer, Wonko.

 

There is at least one Keeper remaining, and they are NOT among the following players: Orlok, Maill, Dow, Araris, Claincy, Kasimir, Wilson, Phattemer, Meta, Twei, Wonko.

 

The Prince/Princess/Duke/Duchess who chose Spencer’s vote is probably NOT among the following players: Orlok, Winter, Bort, Kipper, Spencer, Kasimir, Ostrich, Rainspren, Seonid.

 

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’d like to ask Spencer to reveal to the group whether or not it was a Duke/Duchess who forced his vote (if it was, then he has been informed of it in a PM).

 

 

 

EDIT: removed the pairs Orlok and Mek, Mek and Araris, and Mek and Spencer; added the pairs Mek and Dow, Mek and Wilson, Mek and Phattemer, and Mek and Wonko.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Wonko the Sane

[Haelbarde]

The following are NOT Lover pairs: Orlok and Mek, Orlok and Maill, Mek and Araris, Mek and Spencer, Kipper and Claincy, Araris and Kasimir, Piff and Meta, Twei and Wonko.

Oh that's interesting, Wonko. I'd not made that connection about the Lovers. Any votes that went through on a player mean that the voter is not a lover with the votee.

 

There is at least one Keeper remaining, and they are NOT among the following players: Orlok, Maill, Dow, Araris, Claincy, Kasimir, Wilson, Phattemer, Meta, Twei, Wonko.

I'm not sure why you are discounting these guys from being Keepers - Keepers don't have to use their secret vote. Case in point - Mckdee's vote counted even though he had the option of a secret vote.

[Wonko the Sane]

Well, as I mentioned in my post, Monarchs and Keepers could potentially mess with that; it's just not likely. Also, I realized that I mixed up Mek and Feligon there; I'll edit my post to fix it.

 

I'm not claiming that they aren't Keepers; I'm saying that at least one Keeper cast a secret vote last night, and that Keeper is guaranteed* not to be among the players listed. So at least one of the players who isn't on that list is a Keeper.

 

*Nearly. Monarchs and secret votes could mess with this, as well.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Wonko the Sane

[Bort]

Borter Clams watched in bewilderment as the guards took away a man for execution, only to bring him back and take another one in his place. He was feeling way out of his depth here. He was a fisherman, not some detective. He just hoped the cultists didn't come for him, and that he got out of this alive.

 

As everyone was starting to settle down for the night, some retiring to their rooms, others for late night drinks with friends, well, marginally trusted, at least, Borter made a pact. If he lived through this, he was going to return to his home village, and never leave it again. The outside world was just too dangerous.

 

Unlucky that we lost a Keeper so early, although it does mean one less secret vote, which I think is a good thing. I do wonder though, as Mckeedee was the one in that role last cycle, did he use his secret vote on Feligon? With his role change, is he even allowed to tell us?

 

Speculation on my part, but if I were Mckeedee last night, then I would have voted for Feligon, as he was the only one that stood a chance of being lynched in his place.

[Haelbarde]

I'm not claiming that they aren't Keepers; I'm saying that at least one Keeper cast a secret vote last night, and that Keeper is guaranteed* not to be among the players listed. So at least one of the players who isn't on that list is a Keeper.

Oh! Bah, comprehension fail on my part sorry. That makes sense, and good point.

[the winter system]

Am I the only one confused by what happened? Can someone explain, please?

[Kasimir]

As you wish.

For myself, at least, I'm still analysing the possibilities. Man, when I oversleep, all the things happen at once...

Edit: Y U NO COLOUR?!

Edited May 25, 2015 by Kasimir

[the winter system]

I'd gotten that far, but where did all the votes on Feligon come from? I log off for the night, wake iup, suddenly there's a bandwagon! Or perhaps I should read over the Day thread, to see what happened in my absence.

EDIT: Okay, rerreads Day One. That was a ridiculous amount of last minute bandwagoning! LOTS of last minute changings. Something about how everyone could be convinced to change to Feligon was really off to me. I agree, quasi-innactives (is that the official term?) have got to go. But shouldn't we be a little bit skeptical of how you all changed your votes at one person's whim? Of course, that one person was Wilson and I don't think she would try such a risky gambit as to have all the Jeskeri suddenly lynch someone, but perhaps some of them latched onto the suggestion and carried it all the way to a bandwagon. Though I can't be too skeptical of a Day 1 lynch, something seems extremely off to me with that.

EDIT 2: RP

Dear Kae,

You have a sense for dramatics, but I should come and help you out a bit, I suppose. Has anyone else died since I last recieved your letter?

From, Cleo

Kae began to write a response.

Dear Cleo,

I refuse to let you near here. There was a rather confusing mishap where we nearly killed one person, but then another got killed. You'd think they'd make up their minds. I wanted to make a choice, but I didn't think any of the options were good. I retired to sleep before the mishap anyway. I wish nobody had to die. Can't we all live in peace? You should never have gotten mixed up in Hemulargy. Bye.

From, Kae

Edited May 25, 2015 by Winter Cloud

[Wonko the Sane]

To be fair, I think that Wilson meant it as a poke vote. I didn't like the lynch options, though, so I called for a last-minute vote switch to an inactive player. Fel just turned out to be the inactive we were able to settle on in the 15 minutes we had left. I think it was Dow who actually chose him.

 

I understand that this sort of last-minute switch is a terrible idea, and I don't intend to do it again. What happened was that I had IRL commitments yesterday, and I couldn't get on until the time had almost run out. At that point, I saw myself being forced to choose between two of the most contributing players in this game for the lynch. I made a choice, but offered to switch to any inactive player who could possibly win the vote.

 

I'm going to make an effort to contribute more consistently from here on in, throughout the cycle. Sorry about wrecking the lynch; although I think it turned out all right, all things considered.

[Haelbarde]

Though I know QF games are different, it was interesting to note in QF7 that the eliminators managed to control all three kills on round 1 - obviously they had their eliminator kill, but Joe suggested the smoking gun target the person with the 2nd most votes, so basically aimed the second kill. For the lynch it self, Dow and Phattemer voted on each other, one of the eliminators voted for Dow I think, then Wonko (not an eliminator) voted Dow, and then two of the other 3 eliminators ended up jumping on Dow, ending up deciding the lynch. Which, in retrospect, was risky of them. But then, it was a QF game. Even with that in mind, it makes me wonder about those who jumped on the Fel brass and woodwind oriented group of musicians on a wooden cart.

[Claincy]

Well that was a mess. That's gotta be one of the last minute bandwagony last minute bandwagons I have ever seen. I don't think Wilson is to blame, it's not so much that I doubt she could set it up, I just don't see a sufficient motive (If it was me dead I'd be telling a different story..or..well..not I suppose, anyhow. As I noted when I signed up I'm kinda busy atm hence my inability to post till now. I was able to read the thread a bit and try to keep up, but I didn't have enough time to actually work out what was going on or post again before the end of the day.There won't really be much discussion in this post as my head's still really painful, I'm already really tired and I need to be up early tomorrow so....yeah, fun times! But I haven't been lynched for being me thus far, so that's excellent Some rp, cos I need to get this intro up sooner rather than later.

 

Clancy had stayed here too long. He should have left weeks ago, hopped to another world and taken on a new identity, disappearing into the shadows as he had been doing since Tyrian falls. He had no doubt he was still being hunted, the little hints and pieces of information about his pursuer he had managed to discover painted a picture of someone with an unwavering determination and totally without scruples. He wasn't entirely sure what connection she, whoever she was, had with Wilson, but whatever it was, it was enough for her to want him very, very dead.

 

It wasn't the pain or danger of the crossing that kept him here, he was almost certainly putting himself in more danger by staying. It was the city, there was something truly fascinating about it. Clancy had a deep interest in broken things and he had to know what broke it, and if it could be fixed. And if the broken city could be repaired, perhaps....Clancy barely let himself consider the possibility. But if it was possible, it would be worth any risk.

[the winter system]

Storms. I had a really nice post lined up and my page refreshed!

I agree Wilson was probably a poke vote, though something seems off. Not sure about what it is. I'm looking at those who followed up. Downx, I'm not sure about. He seemed like he had a quick logical reason, I guess. Wonko has explained he has real life stuff, so that's fine. Mckdee propbably didn't want themselves lynched. Nothing wrong about that. I've done it myself. Phatt, I'm kinda suspicious of. I have a gut feeling, and I've had those before.

[Kipper]

Wonko, I'm not sure that it is productive to over analyze the possible lover pairs. I think that there are 435 different combinations of possible lover pairs. Now, if we could eliminate some of the more obvious pairs that were discussed pregame, that would be exceedingly nice. I.e. Wilson, Claincy, etc....

Note that I am speaking against the analysis of lover pairs based on the 435 number, so correct me if I am wrong.