little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 True, we could kill our Surgeon. Or we could kill the Officer. I'm looking at it exactly as you said: We have a 1/3 chance of killing the Surgeon, but as long as we don't just shoot blindly, the odds of hitting the Surgeon are slim. So the point is to find the Officer. With that in mind, here's the way I'm seeing things (and I'd really prefer not to state things like this, because...well. You'll see): Alv never claimed any role. All he said was that he was not the Officer. Then he placed a vote on Macen. Shortly after that, Macen stated he was the Surgeon. Despite having plenty of time to remove that vote, Alv hasn't. Joe also came on and claimed he was the Swordsman, which fits with what I thought the roles were for the lighteyes. 2 Swordmen, 2 Officers, 1 Wit, and 1 Surgeon. If Alv is the Swordsman, he should've switched his vote to Joe. He didn't. Which seems to indicate to me that Alv is the real Surgeon. Hence why he's kept his vote on Macen. Unless Alv is a spy (which I really doubt he'd come forward with his heterochromia if he were), the spy is Macen. Alv is the one with all the pieces to this puzzle. And we know how good he is at putting together puzzles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 True, we could kill our Surgeon. Or we could kill the Officer. I'm looking at it exactly as you said: We have a 1/3 chance of killing the Surgeon, but as long as we don't just shoot blindly, the odds of hitting the Surgeon are slim. So the point is to find the Officer. With that in mind, here's the way I'm seeing things (and I'd really prefer not to state things like this, because...well. You'll see): Alv never claimed any role. All he said was that he was not the Officer. Then he placed a vote on Macen. Shortly after that, Macen stated he was the Surgeon. Despite having plenty of time to remove that vote, Alv hasn't. Joe also came on and claimed he was the Swordsman, which fits with what I thought the roles were for the lighteyes. 2 Swordmen, 2 Officers, 1 Wit, and 1 Surgeon. If Alv is the Swordsman, he should've switched his vote to Joe. He didn't. Which seems to indicate to me that Alv is the real Surgeon. Hence why he's kept his vote on Macen. Unless Alv is a spy (which I really doubt he'd come forward with his heterochromia if he were), the spy is Macen. Alv is the one with all the pieces to this puzzle. And we know how good he is at putting together puzzles. Just one last question (one last qualm, if you will), Wilson, and then I will stop. In QF4, I suggested that Aonar was fakeclaiming Nurse. You said, and I quote, "Nurse would be a really hard role to claim, especially if he hasn’t converted both Renegade’s." ...So, what changed? How does Macen suddenly become an Officer Spy here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyrmhero Posted December 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 ...This is going to be one of those right-up-to-the-minute Cycles again, isn't it? One and a half hours left before Cycle's end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just one last question (one last qualm, if you will), Wilson, and then I will stop. In QF4, I suggested that Aonar was fakeclaiming Nurse. You said, and I quote, "Nurse would be a really hard role to claim, especially if he hasn’t converted both Renegade’s." ...So, what changed? How does Macen suddenly become an Officer Spy here? I don't see how these are exclusive.... I'm familiar with Aonar's gambits. At least somewhat. Granted, it's been a while since we were on Team Evil together, but I remember the gambit he pulled. It was risky, but we had the parts necessary to make it work, as long as Peng and his Trusted Circle were gullible/trusting enough to fall for it. In QF4, I couldn't see him claiming to be the Nurse unless he had both the Renegades, just to ensure that no one got attacked that he was supposed to be "protecting." I don't know Macen's evil playstyle. I don't know the gambits he would take. All I know is what I'm seeing. And I'm seeing Alv, who has all the pieces in this lighteyes puzzle, voting for Macen, when he's had plenty of time to switch that vote. If he hasn't, it means he has reason to believe Macen is lying. And the biggest reason I can see would be if Alv were the Surgeon. Another person claiming Surgeon would then look very suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 I don't see how these are exclusive.... I'm familiar with Aonar's gambits. At least somewhat. Granted, it's been a while since we were on Team Evil together, but I remember the gambit he pulled. It was risky, but we had the parts necessary to make it work, as long as Peng and his Trusted Circle were gullible/trusting enough to fall for it. In QF4, I couldn't see him claiming to be the Nurse unless he had both the Renegades, just to ensure that no one got attacked that he was supposed to be "protecting." I don't know Macen's evil playstyle. I don't know the gambits he would take. All I know is what I'm seeing. And I'm seeing Alv, who has all the pieces in this lighteyes puzzle, voting for Macen, when he's had plenty of time to switch that vote. If he hasn't, it means he has reason to believe Macen is lying. And the biggest reason I can see would be if Alv were the Surgeon. Another person claiming Surgeon would then look very suspicious. ...Fair enough. I was reading it more as a general condemnation of Nurse-gambits rather than one localised to Aonar, so I was rather puzzled by the seeming inconsistency in your stance. Consider me convinced. Odysa. Macen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Consider me convinced too. Macen (I'm not sure who I was voting for before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 ...Fair enough. I was reading it more as a general condemnation of Nurse-gambits rather than one localised to Aonar, so I was rather puzzled by the seeming inconsistency in your stance. Consider me convinced. Odysa. Macen. Ah. Yeah. Personally, I am rather hesitant to try doctor gambits, but that just goes back to what I've already said: I don't like doing gambits that have a very high risk of exposing me and likely killing me. Which I can see that type of gambit doing. Aonar seems similar in that respect. But just because I don't like doing those particular gambits doesn't mean other people don't like doing them. That's why they're gambits in the first place: because someone tried it and was successful at it. Heck, even if they weren't successful, it's still a gambit. Consider me convinced too. Macen (I'm not sure who I was voting for before) You hadn't voted for anyone yet. This is your first vote. Odysa. Macen. Unless Alv gets on and says something that invalidates my logic, that's where it's staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Okay thanks. Since when do you take track of my votes more than I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvron Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 One thing Kas. Odysa claimed to be role blocked and said that they were sent to the latrines before anyone else. If they weren't role blocked then how did they know about being sent to clean the latrines? That part told me that Wilson was telling the truth about targeting Odysa. And Wilson is right. I am a surgeon. I didn't reveal it as I wanted to see what the others claimed. I admit that I am unsure if we have two surgeons or two swordsmen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 I doubt we have two of valuable roles, unless one was evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 From what I know about the balancing, it seems most likely that we have two regular lighteyes, one evil (Jain) and one good (Joe), two officers--also one evil and one good--, and 1 each of Wit and Surgeon. If we'd had enough players for a sixth lighteye, I'm not sure if Wyrm would've thrown in another Swordsman or a Surgeon, but it would've been one of those (and then the other for a seventh). My reasoning is that the Surgeon is the most powerful protective ability, and we already have the guardsman. So one Surgeon, and two Guardsmen. I'm betting one of the guardsmen is evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 (edited) One thing Kas. Odysa claimed to be role blocked and said that they were sent to the latrines before anyone else. If they weren't role blocked then how did they know about being sent to clean the latrines? That part told me that Wilson was telling the truth about targeting Odysa. Again, a fair point. Well, let's do this then. I am definitely happy about an alternative that doesn't involve Odysa being lynched. Edit to address: Wilson: Aye, but quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 (edited) Me too. EDIT: C (color) Edited December 8, 2014 by Winter Cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckat Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 From what I can tell, this is how the votes stand right now: Marand (1): Reihmer Odysa (2): Mek, Newan Ace (5): Norlav, Eoldren, Jost, Odysa, Kenara Jost (3): Aonaran, Ace, Torwel Karlin (1): Kaddar Reihmer (1): Marand (Kaddar, I don't think you retracted your vote for Karlin.) Also, yes I used the lighteye vote on Jasnah, so the tie is accounted for. I hope we're not lynching our Surgeon. At this point, I think I trust Alv more than Ace, but I'm still uneasy. It could go either way. There's not much more coordination we can do with protection at this point in the cycle. Hopefully the spy kill will be blocked. Wilson's analysis of lighteye roles matches what I had already thought, but we probably don't want to put too much stock into what seems balanced when there could be other less symmetric ways of balancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just wait and see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yikes! Best to be safe then, thanks for pointing it out, Luckat. Karlin. Odysa. Joe. Anyone who I might've inadvertently lit up in red and forgotten about and who isn't Macen. And once again, Macen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macen Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well, I guess I will be seeing you all later. Sorry that you are losing a surgeon to the claims of someone saying they are TWO things we can't prove. You know I'm lighteyes, you just don't know I'm the surgeon. You know Alvron is none of the above for certain. Adios guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Maybe we've been a little hasty? Sorry Macen, but I jumped on the opportunity to lynch someone who was not me. So I am not going to withdraw my vote unless other people do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm not withdrawing. That's exactly what Macen wants. He's counting on us thinking that we're being too hasty and switching the vote back to you or Joe or anyone who isn't him. The logic is sound, though. It's either Macen or Alv, and what it comes down to is Alv's heterochromia. If Alv was a spy, why would he reveal himself as the heterochromic? That makes no sense. He's far better suited mingled in with the darkeyes, if he's actually a heterochromic spy. And if he's not heterochromic, then why hasn't the real heterochromic come forward? I'm pretty sure by this point, everyone's checked the thread since Alvron revealed that. They've at least all been online. My gut is saying that Alvron is true, and if Alvron is true, Macen has to be lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 See, the thing that Macen hasn't yet accounted for is one thing. ...It's that after spending most of the day worrying at the issue, I'm frankly too tired to give a chull any longer, particularly at this point of the cycle. Luckat did help me avoid the awkwardness of inadvertently causing a no lynch though, thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macen Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 I don't expect people to withdraw their votes. I honestly didn't think three of you would respond before the cycle ended. It will end how it is and that's ok. It's been an interesting game, thanks Wyrm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 If it means anything, I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newan Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wilson, I just hope your gut isn't a darkfriend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the winter system Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 What's that supposed to mean, Newan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson Posted December 8, 2014 Report Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wilson, I just hope your gut isn't a darkfriend. I'm no Dellan. However, the cycle's almost over. In case I die, I roleblocked Araris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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