Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[the winter system]

I am convinced, I'm just stating the possibility.

 

EDIT: I got an alert, but the post isn't showing up. Is that the same for other people?

Edited December 7, 2014 by Winter Cloud

[Kasimir]

What are you convinced of? :S I'm not following.

[the winter system]

You being the Wit.

[Mckeedee123]

Why? Is it because I am still bad at logic?

 

Nah, but reading through the conversations in the first few cycles, I got some vibes that you were in cahoots with Jain. 

[the winter system]

Really? Can you give me a link to my posts that give you "some vibes that you were in cahoots with Jain"?

[Renegade]

Well, this is strange.  I haven't been able to access the site until now, since the server reset.  I'd assumed nobody could access it, but apparently it's only me.  Hopefully, assuming that it continues to work, I should be back to comment here later.  (I still can't access it on Google Chrome, though, so I can't change font colors, for some reason.)

Edited December 7, 2014 by Renegade

[Kasimir]

I've gone back and gone over the Two-Officer Problem, or the Meta-Wilson-Odysa-Torwel problem, if you prefer a more lengthy way of talking about it. So at this point, we can count Vamah (1), Aladar (2), and Roion (3) as Spies, indicating that there are three Sabotage actions in operation at any given point in time. Once again, we need to assess how this measures up against the Scouts and the Lighteyes who chose to skip battle, and the the possibility of role-blocks and having hit Aladar Spies.

The upshot of this post, though, will be several things:

-Once again, I would urge/recommend all available Messengers to contact Luckat this Week. Getting coordinated is highly important, and more importantly, we need to start sieving through the Messengers to discover which of them are Spies. I find it hard to believe that in three Spy Teams, there are absolutely no Messengers at all..

If a Messenger refuses to contact Luckat, it'd seem somewhat suspicious. More relevantly, in the case of a dispute (say, if the Messenger claims to have been role-blocked), I think it would be useful to confirm with our current Officer about whether that charge is true.

-We find ourselves with more than one Officer in most of the cases. That the other Officer is unwilling to come forward is strange.

-In most of the scenarios I've tested out on the truth-table, the lynchpin is mostly with regard to whether Wilson has or hasn't been truthful. If Wilson is truthful, that pretty much necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful (despite the skewed temporal order). The only possible scenario where Wilson is truthful and someone is lying is the one where Wilson is telling the truth and Torwel is lying. However, in those scenarios, there would be a possibly-good reason for Torwel to be lying without Torwel's being a Spy.

-So, a truth-table mapping out the possibilities where Wilson is lying consists in four rows. (This is a necessary fact, because the only variables we are assigning different truth-values would basically be Odysa and Torwel. However: consider that Wilson’s claim is essentially a conjunction: that she role-blocked Odysa on Week 1 [W1] and that she role-blocked Torwel on Week 2 [W2]. This essentially results in three possible ways Wilson’s claim could be false, inflating the scenarios we’re looking at to 10. (See: ¬ [W1] & [W2], [W1] & ¬ [W2], and ¬ [W1] & ¬ [W2].) By right, there should be 12 of them, but 2 of them are incoherent, as they are scenarios in which Wilson role-blocks Odysa but Odysa lies about being role-blocked.

-The upshot from these scenarios: 1. Torwel could be lying, but it could be for other valid reasons besides her being a Spy. However, of course, the possibility that Torwel is a Spy cannot be readily dismissed, strictly on the basis of the scenarios. 2. Communication is required in some of these scenarios; however, it is not necessitated, because of 1. and because Odysa posted first. 3. There are anywhere between 1-3 Officers, and if Wilson isn’t an Officer, she must be in contact with one, pointing towards a Lighteye-Heterochromic team, or a connection between two separate Spy teams (Wilson would not be likely to be on Team Vamah, as two Lighteyed Spies on the same team could easily sway the vote in catastrophic ways.)

I’ve appended the table to this post in case my reasoning has been deficient. I've chosen to append them in the form of images so as to deflect worries about my tampering with them: for me to alter the images would be to alter the post's contents. I did not spend overmuch time analysing the results; this is more a blow-by-blow of 'what it would take' for Wilson to be lying, and for Odysa and Torwel to be lying/telling the truth. As previously mentioned, I reiterate that the table where Wilson tells the truth is uninteresting because in most cases, Wilson's telling the truth necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are telling the truth, hence rendering the other scenarios incoherent, save the ones in which Torwel lies. And truthfulness and lying may be caused by being Spies or Loyal, but could easily be due to other reasons. Hence my primarily being interested in conditions, rather than whether it tells us these are Spies. Perhaps this might seem over-cautious to some. I do not deny this charge.

[Newan]

Hi guys.  Sorry I wasn't active yesterday.  I went online because I was at the signing and I was posting in the thread about that, but I don't think I managed to make it over here and post.  

 

I'm debating quite a bit between Odysa, Mail, Newan, Macen and Kas. I'm fair convinced Kas is the Wit, however, so I think not voting for him would be prudent, for the time being. Maill and Odysa seem like a good pair of candidates for another Spy Team, but I can't be certain. (And both of them already have votes, so I'll let things slide for now.) Newan and Macen are both suspicious for very similar reasons. They've been around, they've posted, occasionally commented on the discussion, but really contributed very little. I think I'll vote Newan for now, seeing how he's online at the moment, and he's probably been the less helpful of the two of them. 

 

Are you saying that I am suspicious because Macen and I would be a good Spy Team?  I'm not sure what you're saying.  Or why you're saying it.  Have Macen and I been voting for the same people? I should probably go check for myself, but you're one accusing here.

 

 
"Mistress Odysa," said Kaddar, "You are entirely welcome to test the veracity of my claim. Or at least, I would say that if I wasn't wary of instigating a second Meller incident. The one has been quite excessive, wouldn't you say? You are welcome, therefore, to make what you will of it." He winked and strode off.

Newan. Can't deny that I'd like to hear more--especially considering you're sort of behaving as you did during LG7 and you were our House skaa then. You were more helpful during the first part of QF4, and it's not as if you'll be in danger of being converted, this time around.

I know a second vote may seem excessive--I'll definitely switch it out later, but I'm trying to get those Supreme Lynchmaster senses tingling, for the moment, as I work on something else.

 

Yeah, I have been acting kind of like that.  It's not because I'm guilty.  It's because both times I was having trouble finding the time to read everyone's analysis deeply.  I feel my senses a'tingling, though.  There's definitely a tingle back there.  

 

Retracting and replacing a vote would 'reset' your place in the vote order, as you have technically removed your vote and made a new one, even if they happened simultaneously.

Is that how I came to be?  That's confusing.  

 

 

And now for my vote.  Guys.  There are five spies.  That's not good.  

 

Some of the more intense players are really into complicated analysis of really small details, and that's good.  We need that.  But we also need somebody who can state the obvious sometimes.  Sherlock needs his Watson, ya know?  

 

Meta wasn't really that suspicious.  And I'm not really that suspicious.  But Odysa is really flipping suspicious.  Who agrees with me?  Well, according to the posts in this cycle, Mailliw, Wilson, Renegade, Aonar, and Mack all agree that Odysa has been acting suspicious.  So why is Mack the only one who has voted against her?  

 

Yes, there are going to be some really sneaky spies.  But with five of them, total, there are going to be some who are less discrete.  We shouldn't kill off our most experienced players based off of evidence as circumstantial as "He thought that a person was bad when the other players thought he could be bad or good."  I think it will take that kind of deduction to kill the last couple of spies, but we don't need to stoop that low yet.  

 

So, I am proposing that we kill Odysa instead of role blocking her, and then we use the results of the lynch to try and narrow down on whether Wilson has a cold, evil heart hidden beneath all that kindness.  (We all saw you lev your vote.  That was gorram suspicious).

 

 

PS. I also worry that two of the teams of eliminators might already be in contact.  After the battle where nobody was killed, it was probably because at least one eliminator targeted another eliminator, right?  And Kasimir thinks that at least one messenger is a spy.  I'm not saying it's likely.  I'm just saying that it's a possibility.  

 

Edit: color

Edited December 7, 2014 by Newan

[Kasimir]

It's 5am in the morning, and so I can't really process that to a good extent, but thank you for your reply, Newan. I do appreciate it and I'll assess it at some time when my increasingly-strained mind is able to focus.

 

...I am dubious about the wisdom of this, but I'd like to put a vote on Eoldren. You made a few interesting posts throughout the cycles; what do you think, at this point?

 

In addition, I'd like to flag Jasnah (Damon Shan): in QF4, she explicitly used feigned inactivity as a strategy. Granted, she was Good in that game, but the problem is that inactivity can be both a strategy of a Loyal/Spy player. Also on the 'haven't heard much from them' list, I'd include Karlin, and Mek (if only because the 'vibes' are at the moment some amorphous and ill-defined entity), and to lesser extents, Alinel. Besides putting the first vote on Jain, Alinel's mostly been silent since. What gives?

 

Half a cycle's a-wastin', gentlemen. We ain't got much time on that clock. We gotta find ourselves some Spies, y'ken?

[the winter system]

Yes, we do, Kas. So, Newan. If I am good, does that mean Wilson is good or bad?

Edit:

You know the deal by now: COLOR

Edited December 7, 2014 by Winter Cloud

[Newan]

Yes, we do, Kas. So, Newan. If I am good, does that mean Wilson is good or bad?

Edit:

You know the deal by now: COLOR

I'm not sure.  There are lots of possibilities (see Kasimir's post with charts) and your death would only narrow it down a little bit.  But I do think you're bad, and if your death will make it a little bit easier to get a read on Wilson, well that's a win-win.  

[the winter system]

Okay, if you really think I'm a spy, then my pending death will help you find out if Wilson is good or bad.

[Newan]

Okay, if you really think I'm a spy, then my pending death will help you find out if Wilson is good or bad.

[the winter system]

What's that supposed to mean?

[Alvron]

On 12/8/2014 at 0:30 AM, twelfthrootoftwo said:

I'd like to hear from Norlav, who saw (at least) the beginning of the Meta/Kas duel, but posted only to clarify the highstorm rules.

I posted to hopefully clear the air on the highstorm/actions conflict I saw happening.  At the time I was on the local golf course and didn't have access to my notes and didn't want to place a vote without checking my notes which were at home.

My sister and her partner also arrived to stay for a couple of days without informing me so I have had less time to keep up with the thread as I do the obligatory family activities.  Something that I try to avoid almost religiously.

However I have had some thoughts on the missing Officer problem. I am placing my vote on Ace.  My logic is as follows.

Meta claimed to be roleblocked and Wilson denies doing it.  Meta has been proven innocent so it is likely that he was telling the truth.
Wilson has claimed to be an Officer.  And has been basically proven by Twei backing up Wilsons claim of roleblocking. (Could be a lie.  Wilson and Twei could both be spies and are pulling our strings.)
Kas has almost been proven as Wit.  Something which doesn't surprise me given how much trolling he has been doing.
Luckat is proven to be good by winning a Shardblade.
I am the Heterochromic and am not the officer.
That leaves Joe or Ace as the remaining officer.
Joe voted for Jain, a known spy.  (Might be a spy that got one of his own killed.  Wouldn't be the first time he has pulled that trick.)
So that leaves Ace.  Nothing really points to him being a spy but nothing says he isn't either.
Even if we kill a loyal then we should still have control of the lighteyed vote unless there is a third spy among the lighteyes and Wilson is the second spy which I don't really see happening.

Edited June 19, 2016 by Alvron

[Newan]

What's that supposed to mean?

It's supposed to mean yes.  Sorry.  I watched Inglourious Basterds last night, and that part makes me laugh every time.  

[the winter system]

 

 

Something that I try to avoid almost religiously.

*facepalm*

[Kasimir]

When going through the scenarios, the thing I find with regard to Twei and Wilson both lying is that I can't see the purpose it's serving: Wilson just about dragged her Spy-mate into the spotlight, all for a reveal that she was an Officer. It's possible, but it's kind of strange, tactically. But this is Wilson, after all; just that as Maili earlier testified, Wilson prefers to avoid drawing unnecessary connections when evil, at least that was true of LG9. So maybe some of you guys familiar with Evil!Wilson can further clarify on this point; but yeah, I agree that I would put somewhat more credence on Wilson's claim to be an Officer.

 

This is actually rather useful; thank you, Alv. If you're being truthful, then the result is that (though we already knew it), the Lighteyed Officer-Spy in question is actually on either Aladar's team or Roion's team. If that's the case, then we likely have one Darkeyes-Darkeyes team, and the Vamah team seems to be a Lighteyed Swordsman-Darkeyed-Role team, probably for balance, since 14: 6 is still a bit on the big side, I'd say. So it'd have to be balanced out appropriately.

 

With regard to Macen, I had one or two additional qualms, but again: I'll add that later today after I've gotten some shut-eye. And last; with regard to the Odysa-Wilson problem, I would say that because Wilson called out Odysa early, by the same estimation of Eliminator style, it seems strange that they might be Spies together, but we can't eliminate (ha!) that possibility, I guess. So on one hand, Odysa's being a Spy doesn't exactly eliminate the possibility in which Wilson is also a Spy and Odysa's partner. To make things worse, because Wilson's claim to have role-blocked Odysa comes after Odysa claimed to have been role-blocked, there's really no way of sorting that out in a foolproof manner, since communication has already occurred. Then again, if the other Officer is a Spy, then it does highly increase the chances that Wilson is on the level, since in most of the cases, I've figured we'd end up with 2-3 Officers and Alv has claimed to not be one. Unless both Joe and Macen are Officers, it seems that if we can figure if Joe or Macen look more suspicious/likely to be a Spy than Wilson, then such a lynch might have potential to be informative. Perhaps. (I'll need to think this through with a clearer mind.)

 

Good night/morning, all.

[the winter system]

My comment above:

 

 

Okay, if you really think I'm a spy, then my pending death will help you find out if Wilson is good or bad.

Actually meant that I was okay with the death, if you really think I'm an Eliminator.
 

These are potential scenarios:

Scenario 1:

I'm good and you got rid of a not so fantastic player. Helps narrow who is really an Eliminator down.

Scenario 2:

I'm bad and you got rid of an Eliminator. Helps narrow down who else is an Eliminator. 

Scenario 3: I'm the Wit and you got rid of your role. Of course, we're pretty sure we know who the Wit is, but it is a possibility. 

[little wilson]

Scenario 3: I'm the Wit and you got rid of your role. Of course, we're pretty sure we know who the Wit is, but it is a possibility.

That's actually pretty much an impossibility at this point. The only way you could be Wit is if you were heterochromic, and Alv already asked (Edit:stupid phone's swipe) admitted to being the heterochromic. I see no reason for him to say that if he's lying.

There been a lot that's happened in the past day, and while I've read it, I haven't had time to analyze it with my notes, so I'm going to wait until I'm able to get on my computer (I'm on my phone currently) to figure out which of Odysa, Newan, Ace, and Jost I'm most suspicious of (because I've had at least slight suspicions of all four for the last cycle).

[the winter system]

I know, it is possible. I'm just saying all possible scenarios that I could think of if someone lynched me. 

[Renegade]

Still having server connection issues.  If/until this gets fixed, catching up on the thread and posting will be difficult.  For one thing, I can't quote anything.

 

Newan: When did I ever say that I was suspicious of Odysa this cycle?  The closest that I said was that she isn't the least suspicious person here, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch to say that I declared suspicions of her.  While, sure, I could say she's "erratic," I haven't seen anything that has really incriminated her, and there's a difference between "erratic-ness" and suspiciousness.

 

Onto other matters: I haven't seen anyone discuss anything about protective precautions for the Spy kill this cycle. The issue we have here is that there's a considerable chance that the Spies have an Officer, who could potentially block someone protecting Luckat (who I'd assume we'd want to protect).  At the same time, we might not want all of our protective roles protecting Luckat, because that means that the Spies have a clear shot at any other player (including Kas, who appears to be our Wit).  Any thoughts on this?

 

I'm not sure what else to say at this point, but I again encourage everyone to post more often, and vote more aggressively.  Sure, we're all busy during this time of the year, but still, near-inactivity isn't going to help (I'm talking to you, Jasnah and/or Karlin).

[the winter system]

I'd say protect me, but that contradicts my "I'm okay to be lynched if you really believe I'm bad" statement.

[Newan]

Newan: When did I ever say that I was suspicious of Odysa this cycle?  The closest that I said was that she isn't the least suspicious person here, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch to say that I declared suspicions of her.  While, sure, I could say she's "erratic," I haven't seen anything that has really incriminated her, and there's a difference between "erratic-ness" and suspiciousness.

I was just listing all of the people who said that they thought she was at least a little bit suspicious.  And since you said she wasn't the least suspicious person, I thought that you meant you found her a little bit suspicious, but you thought other targets were more important.  

 

Sorry if I misinterpreted you.

[the winter system]

I'm totally suspicious.