Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[Eolhondras]

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on how I should use my Shardblade?

 

Options, from most sadistic to least.

 

1. Dalinar, then who cares if there are spies in his army.

 

2. In the event that Macen or Joe get lynched, kill the other, just to cover bases.

 

3. Suicide. I don't know why you would, but its an option?

 

4.Take a stab at someone who is not particularly active to try and uncover a sleeper agent i.e. Jasnah, maybe Mek or Karlin.

 

5. Pick a dark eyes that you find the most suspicious but has been a bit more active, might give some useful info with either a hit or miss.

 

6. Let the group consensus decide on the target, might save your conscience a little, but open to manipulation.

 

7. Don't use it.

 

 

My personal advice: Trust yourself because you can't trust anyone else. Ask your own questions, make your own conclusions, and if you're sitting at 75-80% certain that someone is a spy, stick-em. 

 

Edit: Blue

Edited December 8, 2014 by Eolhondras

[the winter system]

Do you guys know how funny it is that whenever we say Edit: Color, a lot of the times that part of the post isn't even blue!

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Norlav

Unless I've counted incorrectly, the lynch is between Odysa, Ace and Jost. I'm hesitant to focus on the lighteyes so hard, because of the risk of losing powerful roles. However, it's not likely to change at this stage in the cycle. My thoughts on Odysa haven't changed. Ace's reluctance to give his lighteye vote for last cycle is strange, when he stated his other targets. Surgeon is potentially a fakeable role, but risky due to not knowing where the spy kill will go. If he's not lying, though, we really don't want him dead. Jost hasn't said much this cycle. Last cycle he came down hard on Meta, backed by evidence (which, from what I've seen, isn't really his playstyle). It could have been genuine suspicion, or taking the opportunity to remove a threat.

For now, I think we should leave Ace alive. Surgeon is too powerful a role to throw away. Mostly to that end - to prevent an unexpected stack of votes - I'll put my vote on Jost.

 

Edit: Silly colour editor. A line break is not an excuse to switch colour.

Edited December 8, 2014 by twelfthrootoftwo

[the winter system]

Why don't you trust me again, I don't remember. Role Reveal Time: I don't have a role, but that's the easiest to fake. So yay. Nothing to prove I'm good or bad. 

[little wilson]

I don't have time to say much as I need to be getting ready for work, but luckat, if you pick a target, can you tell us who before the rollover? That's mostly so anyone taking an action on them know that could be a waste. I probably wouldn't change just to prevent any submission, but if I have two equally valid targets and one is dying, I could go for the other.

[the winter system]

Like, say you wanted to roleblock Newan or I (Not saying you do, just examples), but he was going to kill me. So you want to know if you should chose me, but you don't because I'm going to hget killed. 

[Kasimir]

...I know this seems to be against what I was advocating, but the more I think of it, well, Macen. Not that my vote can make a difference at this point, anyway. Remember I said I was going back through my notes and the stuff in the previous Cycles? Well.
 
The funny thing is, I can make sense of the way he seems to sometimes be echoing conclusions other people make--that whole slipping in that sweet spot where you seem useful and avoiding suspicion. Because that's kind of what you want to do, whether Spy or Surgeon. Your job's to stay alive so as to save lives because as a protective role, you're really important.
 
Cool. I got that.
 
And then there's this:

I'm fairly certain that Kaddar is the wit. But, the way he is acting I think he is either the wit or a spy.

So, I will also vote Kaddar. If he is The Wit, he gets a personal victory, and if he is the spy, we all get a win on the cycle!

Macen said this last cycle. And that just strikes me as exceedingly strange for a Surgeon. Sure, the only votes there were Meta's and mine. But these things can change, and we've both previously pulled our votes very late into the cycle. So well, if you are a Surgeon, why in the name of the Stormfather would you ever put a vote on someone you think is likely to be Wit and risk losing your role?! Why in the name of all things sane would you ever think that was a good idea, when you'd been previously savvy enough to stay out of suspicion to avoid having the village lose your role?!

A dead Surgeon and a role-less Surgeon are roughly equivalent; the only difference is that a role-less Surgeon is at least one body between us and the Spies. That's what made me change my mind. I can explain Macen's prior behaviour as caution because he knows he's a Surgeon, but then that falls apart--is inconsistent, I should say--in the light of his claim and acknowledgement that I am likely to be the Wit, and blithely stacking on a vote anyway.

Edit because quote did not show up in the correct box. Formatting fail.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Jasnah Damodred]

Mailiw's acted like an Eliminator throughout the course of the game. I'm also suspicious of Odysa and Kasimir being in the same team. Additionally, it's always good to suspect Wilson. Still, Mailiw is a good bit more suspicious than the other three. Can't colorcode on mobile, voting for Mailiw.

[the winter system]

How did he act like an Eliminator? What is your proof for this?

[Kasimir]

Mailiw's acted like an Eliminator throughout the course of the game. I'm also suspicious of Odysa and Kasimir being in the same team. Additionally, it's always good to suspect Wilson. Still, Mailiw is a good bit more suspicious than the other three. Can't colorcode on mobile, voting for Mailiw.

Sorry guys, I've been waiting to pull this one since forever. All credit to Awes for this, and to Wilson, who first sent me the P.A.F.O. originals off which this is based.

[the winter system]

*highfives*

EDIT: COLOR

Edited December 8, 2014 by Winter Cloud

[Macen]

...I know this seems to be against what I was advocating, but the more I think of it, well, Macen. Not that my vote can make a difference at this point, anyway. Remember I said I was going back through my notes and the stuff in the previous Cycles? Well.

 

The funny thing is, I can make sense of the way he seems to sometimes be echoing conclusions other people make--that whole slipping in that sweet spot where you seem useful and avoiding suspicion. Because that's kind of what you want to do, whether Spy or Surgeon. Your job's to stay alive so as to save lives because as a protective role, you're really important.

 

Cool. I got that.

 

And then there's this:

Macen said this last cycle. And that just strikes me as exceedingly strange for a Surgeon. Sure, the only votes there were Meta's and mine. But these things can change, and we've both previously pulled our votes very late into the cycle. So well, if you are a Surgeon, why in the name of the Stormfather would you ever put a vote on someone you think is likely to be Wit and risk losing your role?! Why in the name of all things sane would you ever think that was a good idea, when you'd been previously savvy enough to stay out of suspicion to avoid having the village lose your role?!

A dead Surgeon and a role-less Surgeon are roughly equivalent; the only difference is that a role-less Surgeon is at least one body between us and the Spies. That's what made me change my mind. I can explain Macen's prior behaviour as caution because he knows he's a Surgeon, but then that falls apart--is inconsistent, I should say--in the light of his claim and acknowledgement that I am likely to be the Wit, and blithely stacking on a vote anyway.

Edit because quote did not show up in the correct box. Formatting fail.

This was before the rule clarification about retracting votes causes the next person in line to lose their role. I assumed whoever was the first person to vote would lose theirs.

As far as my vote last cycle, I had to go check

I'll lighteyes vote for Kaddar

I didn't figure you already had a vote on you, so I put one there to try to make sure it was split up.

 

Hopefully that answers your questions. I'm working today so I have access to the forums all day, so please let me know if you have any other questions.

[little wilson]

Like, say you wanted to roleblock Newan or I (Not saying you do, just examples), but he was going to kill me. So you want to know if you should chose me, but you don't because I'm going to hget killed. 

 

Not quite. I'm not asking for help in who I should choose. That's a decision I can make myself--and I need to make myself, since if we give a short list in the thread directing the Officer's hits, the only way it would affect the spies is if two spies from the same team ended up on the list. Otherwise, they'll just have the spy who's not on the list put in the sabotage order. This request also isn't for this particular cycle. I've already put in my role-blocking order and there isn't anything that will make me change it. The request is more for later cycles, when there's the debate I've got going on between two people. If luckat kills one, I'll probably go for the other one.

 

Kas, you make a good point about Macen, especially with that find, and I'm almost inclined to change my vote. I'm slightly worried that, if you're right, we're about to kill the actual Surgeon. Ultimately, I think I'll keep my vote where it is, unless we come to an agreement about a darkeyes to lynch. It looks like Maill's entered the suspect pool enough to be a possible target, along with Odysa, and I'm still not sure about lynching her. But if we want to lynch him, I'd be fine with that, since I've had some suspicions about him.

 

EDIT: That means that someone else put a vote on Damon (I'm betting luckat), and the last person must've voted for someone other than Kaddar or Damon. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

I put my Vote on Meta last round.

 

Marand (1): Renegade

Odysa (2): mckeedee123, Newan

Ace (4): Alvron, Eolhondras, Joe, Kasimir

Joe (4): Aonar, Macen, Wilson, 12th root,

Karlin (1): Kasimir

Reihmer (1): Mailliw

 

We really are focusing on the Lighteyes too much. If Macen isn't a spy, then I highly doubt there are any more spies among the Ligtheyes.

 

Unfortunately, I'm a Swordsman, no Special Role, which doesn't help my cause. I'd rather we lynch Macen, simply because we don't get much Information from my death, but we do from Macen's Death.

 

​And Wilson, I only lynch teammates if they're inactive or soon to be outed.

[little wilson]

We really are focusing on the Lighteyes too much. If Macen isn't a spy, then I highly doubt there are any more spies among the Ligtheyes.

 

Unfortunately, I'm a Swordsman, no Special Role, which doesn't help my cause. I'd rather we lynch Macen, simply because we don't get much Information from my death, but we do from Macen's Death.

 

Oh, there's another spy in the lighteyes. It's fine that you guys think I'm lying about not role-blocking Meta, but I'd like to figure out who did.

 

I know I said I wasn't going to change my vote, and I may regret doing this come the end of the cycle, but Jost. Macen. I'm still incredibly hesitant about this, so my comment about finding a darkeyes to lynch instead still totally holds true.

[Kasimir]

Hmm, thank you Macen. I'm not entirely sure I'm convinced enough to retract my vote, but so noted. Thank you for responding.
 
To be honest, the more I think of it, the more I am very leery of going after the Lighteyes today when Joe indicated he wouldn't be around for a follow-up response. A Guardsman is basically a one-time deal, and if we lose our Surgeon (assume the worst; assume we only have one Surgeon), then we're basically really in for it right now.
 
Of the Darkeyes, Maili and Odysa are the most likely 'possible targets' that won't have votes squandered. I'm going to note suspicions of Karlin and Jasnah as well: Karlin's been looking in on the thread and saying nothing, and that's always just a little bit strange as it could indicate a Spy trying to play inactive (or possibly, not, of course) and attempts to draw him out haven't led to anything. I've gone back through the thread--he basically said something in Cycle One, nothing in Cycle Two, and a throw-away comment in Cycle Three that he should've known that Jain was evil. That's it. Seems a lot to me like someone's doing their best to stay above the inactive death requirements--just barely. Same with Jasnah, though at least she made good on her promise to come back with suspicions, even if I have no idea exactly what grounds them.
 
There's one or two 'implicature inconsistencies' between Jasnah and Maili (that's to say, Jasnah finds Maili suspicious even though they seem to share one or two people they're vocal about not trusting.) I just flag these as people I'd look into on the Darkeyes end for now and actually set off to do that. Ren's a good candidate as well--as I previously mentioned. He probably has RL reasons, but at the same time, gets markedly more quiet as an Eliminator, so it's not something I'm willing to immediately brush off.
 
...And if we take Joe to be telling the truth, and if we take Wilson to be telling the truth, that means someone between Alv and Macen is the Officer, and the other is the Surgeon.

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain, is that it? It seems to me we don't necessarily need to settle the Lighteyes problem today if we can 'soft-settle' Macen's allegiances, at least for this skirmish. But I'll map this puzzle out and see if there are some cases we can rule out in order to figure this out. Clock's still ticking.

[Kasimir]

I apologise for the double-post, but I reckoned that nobody wanted to deal with a super-long post, and since this does shift a little from the intent of my last post...well, better to be safe than sorry, I suppose :/

So: ok guys, maybe we’ve been approaching this wrong by derailing into the Lighteyed Officer. At this point, we think Wilson is the Officer—well, she’s claimed to be one, and we’ve tentatively accepted that claim.

My suggestion is that we stick to the plan where Macen plus another Surgeon/Guardsman protects Luckat for this cycle. If the Guardsman winds up injured, we know Macen didn’t do his job and we lynch him next cycle. We simply don’t have the time to process all these claims and still make a good lynch and if we only have one Surgeon, I don’t really want us to play Russian Roulette and try to weed the true/good Surgeon out. We’re not Matrim Cauthon.

What about the lynch, then? I suggest (sorry Odysa), that we lynch Odysa. Here are my reasons: Wilson has been continuously insisting that there must be a second Officer hiding amongst <Jost, Alv, and Macen.> But all of them have claimed to not be the Officer. Alv has claimed to simply not be an Officer, Jost has claimed to be a Swordsman, and Macen has claimed to be a Surgeon. Now, if we must lynch a Lighteyes, we could lynch Jost, because based on his claim, we don’t stand that much to lose if we’re wrong. But all that tells us is that either Alv or Macen is the Surgeon, and that either of them is Officer #2. I don’t find that terribly helpful as we’d be forced to face a similar dilemma the next day.

But how does lynching Odysa help us? Really, because Odysa is the lynchpin. (Sorry about the pun.) Our assumptions are entirely based on Wilson’s claim that there is a second Lighteyed Officer. And while there’s nothing personal here, I don’t want to risk our Surgeon just to go and figure out who that could be. So what I think Odysa’s lynch lets us achieve is that it lets us rule out scenarios in which we have one Lighteyes Officer, and that is only Wilson. We would then know that Wilson has been lying to us.

Consider: as I’ve previously mentioned, if Wilson is telling the truth, then it necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful. But if Wilson is lying, then the only scenarios in which Wilson lies and we only have a single Officer are those scenarios in which Wilson does not actually role-block Odysa but roleblocks Meta and Torwel instead (i.e. the ones where Odysa lies about having been role-blocked. The assumption being that Odysa has no reason to lie if she is Loyal.) Note: there are also more complicated variants where Wilson isn’t actually an Officer but is in contact with one. Nonetheless, this still results in Odysa, Wilson, and that Officer being in cahoots and being Spies.

It’s perhaps not as informative as lynching someone in the <Jost, Alv, and Macen> triumverate, but I think it allows us to begin the next round knowing if we’re barking up the wrong tree: brings to mind the tale of the giant who brings down his entire house trying to swat a mosquito.

Last, Odysa has avowed herself to be roleless, meaning that should we mislynch, we’re at least not taking out a Guardsman or a Messenger.

[little wilson]

For the most part, I see what you're saying, Kas, and I agree with it. My one catch is that it seems to be that if Odysa ends up being a spy, then that means I must be lying. But what if she is a spy, and she was still telling the truth?

 

You guys seem to be forgetting one very crucial piece of information based on my eliminator past: I don't do gambits that are incredibly risky. That's what this gambit would require. A lot of risk with very little true reward. So why in the world would I ever do it? And yes, I know your paranoia is saying that the very fact that I wouldn't do it means that I could. Trust me. I wouldn't. Even in future games when I'm an eliminator, I'm not going to do it. You guys know me. I plan. I stategize. I go for the plans and strategies that are best, with the littlest chance of suspicion placed on me and my comrades. This isn't one of those plans. While I get that you have no reason to trust me, at least trust the facts.

[the winter system]

Seriously, I've been saying it. Lynch me if you want to. But, according to Kas's scenario, what you find out will mean that means Wilson is lying. I'm pretty sure I believe Wilson at this point. I don't want that once you find out my alignment to just assume that Wilson is a spy. 

[Kasimir]

Seriously, I've been saying it. Lynch me if you want to. But, according to Kas's scenario, what you find out will mean that means Wilson is lying. I'm pretty sure I believe Wilson at this point. I don't want that once you find out my alignment to just assume that Wilson is a spy. 

...you do realise that we'd have reason to believe Wilson is a Spy/lying (on my proposal; I'm currently considering Wilson's point) only if you turn out to be a Spy upon your lynch? Is this what you're telling us now? That you're a Spy? Because I'm not quite following what you're getting at there.

[the winter system]

What? Okay, then take the opposite of what I just said, except for the lynch thing. I meant that. 

[Kasimir]

Understood, Odysa. If it comes to that, then I'm sorry, for what it's worth.
 
Wilson: I see what you mean. Yeah, that would be a gap--except that truth to be told, I don't know about your preferred strategies as an Eliminator. I'm neither Joe, nor Aonar, nor Meta, nor Gamma--all of whom have the capacity to tell what your strategies are like. As opposed to what your perceptions of your strategies are. Clearly, the Village made a bad trade last cycle, but we are what we are, and we work with what we've got.
 
I can't tell what you're pushing me towards or if you are pushing me towards something at all. Quite frankly, I no longer care. I'm just going to look at the tactical ramifications because I can neither choose between the Trifecta of Doom, nor am I particularly keen on Odysa's guilt, seeing as how pretty much everyone and their grandmother's been pushing that, which seems to me to suggest that Odysa isn't particularly guilty. It seems like a choice between two bad lynches to me, and the only one that I can see that would be potentially less damaging, and still a little informative is if I choose to go with Odysa as compared to picking between Macen, Joe, and Alv.
 
If you've a good argument for which I should pick, I'll listen. Otherwise, I'm going with the least bad in a world of bad choices. Again, Odysa, I am truly sorry.

[the winter system]

I've really just giving up on trying to convince people of my good alignment. 

[little wilson]

Frankly, Odysa, I really hope you're being honest, because it seems like my fate is now tied to yours. Which is something I supremely disapprove of.

 

I can't tell what you're pushing me towards or if you are pushing me towards something at all. Quite frankly, I no longer care. I'm just going to look at the tactical ramifications because I can neither choose between the Trifecta of Doom, nor am I particularly keen on Odysa's guilt, seeing as how pretty much everyone and their grandmother's been pushing that, which seems to me to suggest that Odysa isn't particularly guilty. It seems like a choice between two bad lynches to me, and the only one that I can see that would be potentially less damaging, and still a little informative is if I choose to go with Odysa as compared to picking between Macen, Joe, and Alv.

 

What I said is something you can verify in the evil docs. There's not time right now to read through all 3 of them, but for those who have read through at least one or two of them (or who, even better, were either GMing (Alv) or on my team (Aonar and Joe)), you already know. Do I do risky gambits that could expose me? Yes. Do I do incredibly risky gambits that do expose me and have a high chance of killing me and one of my teammates? No. So much no. But don't take my word for it. Ask them.

 

However, if you're really keen on doing this, fine. Macen. Odysa. I hope you realize, though, this this isn't going to work. And I don't mean that her being evil is going to get me lynched. While that's true, I mean on the chance she's good, you're still not going to believe me. You can say otherwise, but you're trying so hard to not trust me just in case I'm bad that there isn't anything that can happen beyond my death and confirmation of alignment that will assure in your mind that I'm good. So it really doesn't matter who dies right now. I'm still dead in the next lynch.

 

EDIT: I seem to have forgotten that both Maill and Jasnah would also know.

EDIT2: I also quoted the wrong paragraph. Oops.  I meant this one: 

Wilson: I see what you mean. Yeah, that would be a gap--except that truth to be told, I don't know about your preferred strategies as an Eliminator. I'm neither Joe, nor Aonar, nor Meta, nor Gamma--all of whom have the capacity to tell what your strategies arelike. As opposed to what your perceptions of your strategies are. Clearly, the Village made a bad trade last cycle, but we are what we are, and we work with what we've got.

[Kasimir]

What I said is something you can verify in the evil docs. There's not time right now to read through all 3 of them, but for those who have read through at least one or two of them (or who, even better, were either GMing (Alv) or on my team (Aonar and Joe)), you already know. Do I do risky gambits that could expose me? Yes. Do I do incredibly risky gambits that do expose me and have a high chance of killing me and one of my teammates? No. So much no. But don't take my word for it. Ask them.

 

However, if you're really keen on doing this, fine. Macen. Odysa. I hope you realize, though, this this isn't going to work. And I don't mean that her being evil is going to get me lynched. While that's true, I mean on the chance she's good, you're still not going to believe me. You can say otherwise, but you're trying so hard to not trust me just in case I'm bad that there isn't anything that can happen beyond my death and confirmation of alignment that will assure in your mind that I'm good. So it really doesn't matter who dies right now. I'm still dead in the next lynch.

 

EDIT: I seem to have forgotten that both Maill and Jasnah would also know.

That's why I'm trying to hang around and buy time in the hopes that someone a lot more qualified to figure out what the storms to make of this mess than me can come in and conclusively decide who to place that vote on. As you say; Alv, Aonar, Joe, Maili, or Jasnah. I suspect my only hope will be if Alv or Maili shows up since Joe and Aonar already pretty much mentioned they won't be able to handle this.

What more do you want? I'm really not able to make a decision about you and I know next to nothing about Joe except from hearsay. I don't think Alv is lying, but this is my impression of Alv from LG5 and he's done lots of stuff since then. As I said, I'm willing to grant you the point on your strategy--or rather, I'm willing to grant that the cavalry are hopefully in a better position to assess that than I can. It's unfortunately going to be a close lynch, and the sad thing is that as Luckat pointed out, by the time it got to this stage, the only thing we could do is to pick between the three people who're basically up for a lynch. We don't have the time or numbers, practically speaking, to lynch anyone who isn't Joe, Macen, or Odysa.

You yourself admitted that we're pretty much uncertain about whether to hit Macen or Joe, and we know that one of them (or Alv) is the Surgeon. If you want me to be frank and honest, then the only reason why I'm especially wary now is that Luckat has made a good point about how we've ended up being pushed in a corner to vote for one of our Lighteyes. And I don't like that at all when we could be shooting our only Surgeon. Still, I suppose that we only have a 1/3rd chance that we'd kill our Surgeon if we look for that Officer. So maybe that's a worthwhile risk. Maybe I'm too risk-averse.

At my most cynical and pragmatic, I'd still rather buy us some time to actually adjudicate between the Surgeon-Not!Officer-Swordsman claims, to press Alv and Joe and Macen at greater length tomorrow, and that can't be done if we choose to shoot the guy claiming to be our Surgeon this Week. As I've said, at this point, I'm content to just tie up the votes and to let someone else who actually knows what the Braize is going on make the decision. Maybe it's cowardly, but I really am not keen on helping us try for our Surgeon. And I was serious; if you're pretty sure you know who's lying, and can explain that to me, I'll cast my vote accordingly, no question of trust involved. My current problem is that Macen's had answers for everything so far, while I just can't make anything out of Joe. The only thing that would push me to Macen over Joe, ultimately, would have to be gut feeling. Do you really want me to join in and bring on a lynch of our claimed Surgeon on the basis of a gut feeling? Because sure, just say the word, and I'll do it, then.