Long Game 107: The End of the World

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

The best kind of tineye

We taking bets on if Aeo was the chaos gremlin or not?

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The best kind of tineye

We taking bets on if Aeo was the chaos gremlin or not?

Aeo was ON the TOW wagon. If she wanted a tie, she could have just unvoted. I think there's another Soother. 

[Doc12]

Alright friends. Here's what I got. 

So things I guess I want to discuss. 

Recap

The big thing that happened first half of Day 1 was the TJ vote. Aeoryi started the TJ vote, with the stated intent to poke an inactive. Araris jumped on it, I jumped on it, Walin and Kidpen jumped on it. Votes on TJ: 5

A lot of us were just voting to see if they'll show up or say anything. Tj showed up and put a retaliatory vote on Araris. Since he showed up, I was the first to jump off, voting on a different inactive (Biplet) Araris was the second, voting on Twinstorm because they expressed wanting to spread out the votes. Votes on TJ: 3.

Then Aeoryi jumped to Worldhopper. She'd said earlier in the chat that she had a solid suspicion on Worldhopper. She expressed to me in PMs that she didn't want to vote for their suspicion because she thought they were a first time player. She changed her mind in the last 5 hours of the cycle and voted on Worldhopper. I had previously told her in PMs and thread that if she had a solid lead and pursued it, I would support that, so I changed my vote too. Votes on TJ: 2, Votes on Worldhopper: 2

Then Sart brought up Kidpen as suspicious, and TJ jumped on that vote. At this point, Kidpen switches his vote to Twinstorm, creating the tie. TJ: 2, Worldhopper: 2, Kidpen: 2, Twinstorm: 2.

Walin retracts their vote and declines to vote again. Kidpen switches his vote to Worldhopper. TJ: 3, Worldhopper: 2, Kidpen: 2, Twinstorm: 1

Biplet votes Twinstorm. TJ: 3, Worldhopper: 2, Kidpen: 2, Twinstorm: 2

Conjectures. 

So last night, we were all focusing on Worldhopper because the soothed vote saved his life, obviously. I and some others did point out it wasn't a guaranteed save as it was still a 3-way tie. Still, I pointed out Sart and TJ as being suspicious due to starting the Kidpen vote very soon after Aeoryi and I started the Worldhopper vote. Araris and Kidpen starting the Twinstorm vote can also be construed as suspicious in this light, but Kidpen was a villager trying to save his skin, and Araris wasn't the first to put in the alternative vote. 

After last night, though, especially with Aeoryi's death (Side note, given that Aeoryi probably didn't soothe her own vote, and the unlikelihood of there being two village soothers, the remaining soother is almost certainly elim) I'm beginning to agree that the tie might have been all villagers and the elims were happy to keep the focus on Worldhopper with the soothe and killing Aeoryi, who started that vote. 

On this note, I'm looking at those who weren't necessarily involved in the tie voting, or those who made it more of a tie - Biplet, for example, bumped Twinstorm from 1 vote to 2, keeping it a tie. TJ voted for Kidpen after Sart, which I personally think is more suspicious than starting said vote, as it feels like a safe elim play to jump on an accusation made by another villager (yes, I realize this implicates me too for supporting Aeoryi, I'm just being fair.) KaladinsSenseofHumorSpren didn't vote during the day, but tried to put in a vote for Worldhopper during the night, after when it would have mattered, which would have been a way to maintain credibility. TheUnknownOrder did not vote at all, so there's nothing to go on from them. Walin actually went from a vote to no vote, which was strange in a potential tie when every vote would have mattered. 

Conclusions.

1. Twinstorm: Gut says positive. Nothing to really support this aside from them not contributing to the tie. 
2. Unknown Order: Declined to vote, a real complete unknown. So slight negative.
3. KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren: slight negative. Declined to vote day 1, and tried to vote too late during night cycle. 
4. Araris: slight positive. Has remained consistent in voting patterns. 
5. TJ: I felt a little weird about how you defended Worldhopper multiple times in PMs and thread. Also jumped on the Kidpen vote after Sart. Negative read. 
6. ThatOneWorldhopper: Voted for Sart, did not change vote near the end. Gut says villager because of potential red herrings but nothing to really prove that. 
7. Biplet: Slight negative for reasons stated above.
8. Doc: Obviously the only completely trustworthy person in the entire game. Very chatty. Tell him all your secrets please.
9. Sart: Slight positive, but that's based on gut. 
10. Walin: Slight distrust due to withdrawing vote. 

So to get the day started, I'm going to poke The Unknown Order just to get his take on things. Hi! 

Edited July 22, 2025 by Doc12

[TwinStorm He/Him]

alright, that's interesting

my communications with Aeo don't reveal much, except some basic role swapping

Aeo said they were vanilla, which is interesting, but a smart tactic in case I was an elim. Our vote manipulators are important, and if they die, or get found out by the elims, we're dead. My guess is that Aeo had PMs with an elim, who then ordered the NK.

This is all just contextualizing, but as for my actual thoughts, Aeo claimed to have known at least one elim, the day before their murder by elims. Clearly they were correct. @Doc12 claims it was @ThatOneWorldhopper, toward whom the evidence is overwhelming, seeing as his life was saved by vote manip, and Aeo suspected him shortly before getting murdered. However, Doc claimed he had vote manip powers to me in a PM, making him a likely candidate for soothing TOW in order to frame him. Furthermore, he reveals Aeo's suspicion after their murder, which could've been another way to try and make TOW look bad.

For these reasons, I'm going to have to vote Doc. Feel free to defend yourself, mate. If you are village, we need you to. No messing around this cycle.

[Doc12]

14 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Aeo claimed to have known at least one elim, the day before their murder by elims. Clearly they were correct. @Doc12 claims it was @ThatOneWorldhopper, toward whom the evidence is overwhelming, seeing as his life was saved by vote manip, and Aeo suspected him shortly before getting murdered. However, Doc claimed he had vote manip powers to me in a PM, making him a likely candidate for soothing TOW in order to frame him. Furthermore, he reveals Aeo's suspicion after their murder, which could've been another way to try and make TOW look bad.

Uh. I'm not sure what you want me to say here mate. I revealed Aeo's suspicion after their murder? 

 

On 7/20/2025 at 11:28 PM, Aeoryi said:

Good to see more. I think I have already found at least one elim. Save that for tomorrow (real-time) though.

On 7/20/2025 at 11:47 PM, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Am I missing something? Because this seems pretty fishy to me.

On 7/21/2025 at 12:18 AM, Aeoryi said:

There's reasons for me to withhold my vote. There's no reason to act so jumpy

Here's Aeoryi saying they have a solid suspicion early day 1, but being cagey about it.

On 7/21/2025 at 9:53 AM, Doc12 said:

I am interested in what Aeoryi said about having a solid suspicion already, but not voting on them yet. They've told me who they suspect, but haven't changed their vote. If they're willing to put their vote where their suspicion is, I'll back that, but since they haven't, I'm a little wary. 

Here's me saying that Aeoryi has strongly hinted at me who they suspect, and me saying I'd back them if they were actually going to act on their suspicion

On 7/21/2025 at 3:05 PM, Aeoryi said:

TJ

ThatOneWorldhopper 

Aeoryi changes their vote

On 7/21/2025 at 3:15 PM, Doc12 said:

Fine, Aeoryi. I said I'd support you if you actually changed your vote, and you did. Let's see how this plays out.

Biplet 

Thatoneworldhopper

I change my vote. 

 

I don't know why you think I withheld information about who Aeoryi actually suspected when Aeoryi was the first to act on their suspicion? What actually happened was just that Aeoryi claimed something, was extremely cagey about it, so I challenged her in PM and thread to actually act on said suspicion to see what she'd do. 

Edited July 23, 2025 by Doc12

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm going to drop a placeholder vote on Kaladin (let me know if you have a preferred nickname), later I'll summarize my thoughts on the day/night.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

36 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to drop a placeholder vote on Kaladin (let me know if you have a preferred nickname), later I'll summarize my thoughts on the day/night.

These days I usually go by KSauce.

I still think TOW.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Alright, KSauce. I think that Worldhopper was saved by an elim Soother or maybe a rioter that accidentally canceled out Aeoryi's Soothe. For example, if Aeoryi soothed myself or Bip, and an elim non-voter (KSauce/TUO/Walin) Rioted one of Aeoryi/Doc/Kidpen onto Twinstorm, that would give us a matching VC. Similar thing could have happened with the votes on Kidpen instead. If we assume that Aeoryi would have Soothed to kill Worldhopper and the elims would have Rioted to save him, there's a 50/50 chance that the end result looks like a single soothe. Of course, Rioter is pretty strong for the elims, so maybe Aeoryi just didn't soothe and the elims do have a Soother.

I wish I had access to Aeoryi's reasoning, and confirmed good =/= confirmed right, but that's another data point to take into consideration. If Worldhopper is elim, I'd guess at either TJ or Sart as a second elim, with a slight lean toward Sart. There may be reason to think we have 3 of them, if there are enough village power roles floating around. In that case I'd place my money on Walin as the third.

Currently via PMs I have village reads on Doc (decent), Biplet (decent), and TUO (limited). 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I realized I haven't addressed Doc's vote. No real excuse, been plenty active in PMs, just don't have much to say in thread.

I don't really have any suspicions, but there is someone I will place my vote on because I've learned the truth:

Exe the countertrain 

TOW

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Honestly, @Doc12 has me convinced in PMs that my argument doesn't make complete sense, so TOW we go.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

We are just about halfway through the turn, does anyone have a reason we shouldn't exe Worldhopper?

Edit: I'd like to hear from Worldhopper himself, who his greatest suspects are, and if he has a thought on why someone would try to save him from the exe last turn.

Edited July 23, 2025 by Araris Valerian

[TwinStorm He/Him]

39 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

We are just about halfway through the turn, does anyone have a reason we shouldn't exe Worldhopper?

Edit: I'd like to hear from Worldhopper himself, who his greatest suspects are, and if he has a thought on why someone would try to save him from the exe last turn.

@ThatOneWorldhopper

[Sart he/him]

Soundtrack:

Spoiler

 

Vote Count:
The Unknown Order (1): Doc12
ThatOneWorldhopper (4): KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, Araris Valerian, The Unknown Order, Twinstorm

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

We are just about halfway through the turn, does anyone have a reason we shouldn't exe Worldhopper?

Edit: I'd like to hear from Worldhopper himself, who his greatest suspects are, and if he has a thought on why someone would try to save him from the exe last turn.

Because it feels like a bus? There's been barely any counter activity today. The only other sign of life has been poke votes, and an odd vote from Twinstorm on Doc. Considering that the Soother is almost certainly evil, that makes Twinstorm basically a confirmed good player. Still don't like his vote though. Doc has been putting a lot of effort into this game, which is hopefully a village mindset. 

I don't think TOW is the Elim vote manipulator. The timing doesn't line up for the Soothe, and there's been zero self preservation. However, we'll get nowhere fast if we keep him alive. His vote out will give us a lot more information, and I think identifies the actual vote manipulator. We'd need someone who was actually active during rollover. That narrows the suspects a lot. In the evil TOW world, I'd put good money that TJ is the Elim vote manip. He tries to start a counter train, and stays active up til the end. Probably an inactive third teammate, like KSauce or TUO. In a village TOW world, things get murky again. I'd lean towards Araris or Walin as the Soother, but I'm not sure of their other teammate. In either case, ThatOneWorldhopper. 

[Biplet she/her]

I’ll have more to say when I’m not dying of disease, but vote manip is always one of those things that makes my head feel a little screwy. I wanna hear from TOW before I vote tho. But yeah it’s not looking great

[Walin he/him]

I'm not going to vote yet this turn, still reading through the remainder of Night 1 and trying to piece things together from the entire game so far. From just Day 1, I still don't have any suspicion towards anyone; while I'm happy to have *an* execution I didn't want to be the deciding vote.

Catching up on a few other things outside of SE so I'll be back...in about 16 hours. Possibly sooner, but that's my forecast for when I'll rejoin the thread with a vote. As for PM's, I'll be active all night. Though I'm only in two right now, so that will be rather easy.

[Doc12]

Exhaustion. 

Exhaustion made sense. The world was ending, after all. They were all holed up in some caves, and there were murderers among them. And two more people had died. A child by the hands of a mob, one's throat slit in the night.

A child, whose name she had never even learned. It had been such a mess. Aeo announced publicly she had found one of the killers. Mara had been suspicious, but willing to believe Aeo if the other woman would be frank about her suspicion. Aeo delighted in riddles, telling her to look for someone who 'moved without contribution' (Actual message something like "hides behind endless rp, and agenda'd person" whatever that means). Finally, Aeo had publicly accused Worldly, the strange bartender. Her boldness empowered Mara to support her, and the child, who was also up for execution, had joined them. They had a majority. But then in the press and the chaos of the soldiers arriving, one of them must have said something unintended, they were back to a tie, and the next thing she knew the child was gone and dead. 

And the day after, Aeo was dead. 

It didn't take an educated noble to figure out Mara was probably next on the list. 

Father. Mother. Garrick. Rin...

Jessa. The child. Aeoryi. 

The dozen of them were still confined to the chamber, each in different corners. Mara picked herself up. Forced herself to try and make sense of the days events. Poked at The Unknown Order who still refused to share his name, but was at least willing to converse, enough that her initial suspicion was allayed. She walked around the cave, speaking to whoever would speak to her. 

Finally, a consensus emerged. They would try to execute The One Worldhopper again. The fact that he had weaseled out of an execution with the help of mistings made him - if not a killer himself - someone that the killers had tried to preserve. 

No one seemed willing to speak on their behalf. Worldly himself had not stirred. Mara didn't like this. If he was innocent, she would have to add him to her list of names.

Still. 

They needed to know.

She needed to know. 

 

EDIT TO AVOID DOUBLE POSTING

Gonna be honest I feel weirded out that Worldhopper hasn't emerged and no one is defending them. Feels like a very weird cycle to have almost no discussion and just a consensus. Not disagreeing with the current result, just feel weird about it. 

Edited July 24, 2025 by Doc12
EDIT TO AVOID DOUBLE POSTING

[Biplet she/her]

@ThatOneWorldhopper man I don’t wanna vote on you without a defense can we get some words

[TwinStorm He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

@ThatOneWorldhopper man I don’t wanna vote on you without a defense can we get some words

the weird thing is he has been online and we have been tagging him, he just not have the energy or will to defend himself

[Biplet she/her]

52 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

the weird thing is he has been online and we have been tagging him, he just not have the energy or will to defend himself

Is it a bus then??

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@TwinStorm @The Unknown Order @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren @Araris Valerian @|TJ| @ThatOneWorldhopper @Doc12 @Biplet @Sart @Walin There's only half an hour left! Make sure you get your votes and actions in before the end of the day!

Current VC:

ThatOneWorldhopper (6): TwinStorm, The Unknown Order, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, Araris Valerian, Doc12, Sart

[Biplet she/her]

i don’t think I’ll make much of a different but uh. 
TOW

[StrikerEZ he/him]

And that's the turn! No more posting, voting, PMing, or submitting actions until the next turn is posted!

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Yomen was tired.

First, the skaa had sentenced that poor child to death. Yomen's soldiers had thoroughly investigated the body and found no spikes. What a waste of a worker's flesh.

Then there had been that Hyena person who had wound up dead in the middle of the night, causing all sorts of commotion. Yomen suspected it was one of those spiked miscreants, trying to sow chaos and fear in the cavern. 

Unfortunately, it was working.

There were various groups, all avoiding one another, keeping to themselves at night. They came together during the day and argues and argued about who should be sacrificed this time. At the end of the second day, Yomen was called to witness their latest choice.

It was a poor, silvery haired old man. He looked odd for a reason Yomen couldn't quite place, but the skaa were unanimous in their decision. This old man was apparently a murderer in their eyes.

He would do as they asked. 

What else could he do? He needed them placated. They couldn't afford a riot in this cramped space.

~~~~~~~

ThatOneWorldhopper has been executed! They were a Village Oracle!

ThatOneWorldhopper (7): TwinStorm, The Unknown Order, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren, Araris Valerian, Doc12, Biplet, Sart

PMs are still open! As a reminder, group PMs are allowed, and all PMs must also include @little wilson and myself. 

Player List: 

Spoiler

1. @TwinStorm
2. @The Unknown Order
3. @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren - Chanarash, IT'S TIME FOR A CRUSADE
4. @Araris Valerian - Aralis, a non-believer of Spiked
5. @|TJ|
6. ThatOneWorldhopper Village Oracle
7. Aeoryi Village Soother
8. Kidpen Villager
9. @Doc12 - Mara, a totally normal, completely unsuspicious skaa
10. @Biplet
11. @Sart - DJ Sart, not sure what a DJ is, but he’s got background music following him around at all times
12. @Walin - Walin, some guy whose name sounds so familiar….

This turn will end at 4 PM CDT on Friday, July 25th.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

Hmm...

D1 votes:

TwinStorm (2): Araris Valerian, Biplet
ThatOneWorldhopper (2): Aeoryi, Doc12, Kidpen
Kidpen (2): |TJ|, Sart
Sart (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
Walin (1): TwinStorm

I don't think Doc is an elim because of the Soothe. I don't think TwinStorm is either because if he were the elims would probably not risk a 1/3 chance of him being executed. But then, why Soothe at all? To me, this points to a village Soother or Mistborn. Or maybe a vote was Rioted and then Soothed.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, time to rethink our assumptions. I'm a bit surprised that there is a village Oracle, I would have thought that would be more of an elim-leaning role (mostly for retaliation against Seekers).