Quick Fix 75: The Tower's Pressure

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

13 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

. . . I was spectating during LG2. Of course, back then we didn't call them LG2 or LG 3, it was just SE2 or SE3. You young'uns with your crazy formats don't know how good you have it. Back then we played in 72 hour cycles and we liked it.

Tbh 72 hour cycles sound nice and chill.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

not sure, can someone else @The Unknown Order tell me if Null played your LG and how Null's play was?

As far as I know, this is Null's first game. 

Not that my game could really be used as a benchmark anyway, too weird. 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

As far as I know, this is Null's first game. 

Not that my game could really be used as a benchmark anyway, too weird. 

5 hours ago, |TJ| said:

After the clusterchull that is the last game, I made an argument that e!him would want to get rid of me asap, so him trying to not get me killed here is NAI, but I feel much better about his read on me and that it's coming from a good place than when compared to the last game. Or maybe it's the guilt talking.

  Any idea who TJ might mean by this?

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Tbh 72 hour cycles sound nice and chill.

I think I'll find out soon. I'm probably playing a game on Dragonmount for courtesy/favour reasons and they do 72 hours. 

Edited to add:

In an E!TJ world, gonna guess Null and TJ not teamed for pretty obvious reasons!

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Any idea who TJ might mean by this?

Not a clue, I was very confused when I read it too.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| - Null played before you said? This is either classic new player kneejerk, or a new player Elim. I did feel eh about the EoD, but yeah. This isn't particularly helpful (and if E!TJ, Striker would be one of the players I'd squint at RE: on the KSauce CW).

Hmmm? No, I don't think neg null played before. I just have a v-read of them from this game. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm confused about where this comes from.

We always talk about thins that don't make sense because elim teams should behave in an optimal way (just like what Polly said before), but we never know how they actually play. Almost always, the elim teams never behaves the way we expect it to behave and that's mainly due oversight. We don't see a kill? Our first thought is to assume roleblock or a protect wherease at times, it's just the elim teams forget to send in their orders. But my largest proof of this is from AG8/9, the one with an evil Coinshot, when we were discussing the possibility of e!Coinshot and we were seeing only 1 kill in one of the cycles and surely an evil Coinshot means 2 kills per cycle. We disregarded this but I brought it up again because I just thought "what the the e!Coinshot and the elim killer just accidentally submitted the kill on the same person" and that's exactly what it was. That's where I'm coming from. 

In other news, if deliberate, my vote removal would indicate someone looking for an easy exe, so I don't think TOW makes sense for that team. Doesn't make sense to frame and then come right back in to defend. Also think Polly is village now, the whole devil's advocate post... yeah doesn't seem to coming from someone looking for an easy exe. It's like she was convincing herself. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Hmmm? No, I don't think neg null played before. I just have a v-read of them from this game. 

5 hours ago, |TJ| said:

In terms of reads, I only have one - I'm leaning village on negative null. 

After the clusterchull that is the last game, I made an argument that e!him would want to get rid of me asap, so him trying to not get me killed here is NAI, but I feel much better about his read on me and that it's coming from a good place than when compared to the last game. Or maybe it's the guilt talking.

???

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

  Any idea who TJ might mean by this?

It's you omg, who else would it be??? 

uhhhh I went back to my post and - and yeah I can see how it could be confusing, my bad >> 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

It's you omg, who else would it be??? 

BRO YOU LITERALLY PUT IT WITH ZERO FKING CONTEXT IN A POST ABOUT NULL, WHO TF AM I SUPPOSED TO TAKE IT AS!?!?!?!?!?!?

Edited to judge TJ harder:

Spoiler

 

Edited May 23, 2025 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

BRO YOU LITERALLY PUT IT WITH ZERO FKING CONTEXT IN A POST ABOUT NULL, WHO TF AM I SUPPOSED TO TAKE IT AS!?!?!?!?!?!?

It was a new paragraph! >> 

sorry sorry totally my badddd >> 

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

We always talk about thins that don't make sense because elim teams should behave in an optimal way (just like what Polly said before), but we never know how they actually play. Almost always, the elim teams never behaves the way we expect it to behave and that's mainly due oversight. We don't see a kill? Our first thought is to assume roleblock or a protect wherease at times, it's just the elim teams forget to send in their orders. But my largest proof of this is from AG8/9, the one with an evil Coinshot, when we were discussing the possibility of e!Coinshot and we were seeing only 1 kill in one of the cycles and surely an evil Coinshot means 2 kills per cycle. We disregarded this but I brought it up again because I just thought "what the the e!Coinshot and the elim killer just accidentally submitted the kill on the same person" and that's exactly what it was. That's where I'm coming from. 

I guess my problem is we usually go back to "something unexpected happened" after the more reasonable worlds are explored. Like most Elim teams don't forget* to put in a kill, so if there is no kill, we usually investigate RB and protect possibilities first, that kind of thing. I can see optimal play being less considered in a game like this, but I'm also kind of concerned (and tbh that is my qualm with C2 Polly although it could be my paranoia/tunnel at this point) that both of you are pushing to expand the possibility pool rather than start with what's most likely first. You make checking the first order possibility sound like a bad thing but I'm not convinced it is.

In the most extreme/classic philosophical example from Bennet's discussion of ordinary counterfactuals and the hook interpretation/arrow interpretation - yeah it's true if I throw a ball it may quantum tunnel through the floor, or John Cena might slide in and invisibly catch it. But in most worlds, it's just gonna hit the floor and bounce and it'd be minimally weird or actually epistemically irresponsible for me to go for those first.

It's also why I asked Polly for odds btw, besides knowing she loves betting  I'm tryna figure out if it's coming from good faith or y'all just tryna expand the pool and FUD.

In Aster's case, I'm fine as I think she's correct to point to the fact it could very well be bait. I'm just...not convinced it's productive to argue this at the current vc.

*For Aster's benefit, as it's uh, a bit more common for him.

[|TJ| he/him]

37 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You make checking the first order possibility sound like a bad thing but I'm not convinced it is.

Not really, no. I'm not even really opposing my exe and I don't know who I'd go for so far in the cycle. I'm merely stating what I think might have happened - the 3 reasons (though reason no. 2 is moot now). 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Venturing a guess, (and this relates to the bolded part in the quote), I could see a team with low thread control go for a foregone concluded exe. Basically, remove the vote and don't really have to think hard about who to vote tomorrow in this cycle. 

Odd question: Do you think a team which watched the whole trying to get me to push you/allow you to be exed thing result in the deaths of E!Aman and E!Aeo would think this is a viable strat in a V!Kas world?

I recognise it's somewhat implied in low thread control but I think there's some exclusions possible.

[Negative_Null They/Them]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Null played before you said? This is either classic new player kneejerk, or a new player Elim. I did feel eh about the EoD, but yeah. This isn't particularly helpful (and if E!TJ, Striker would be one of the players I'd squint at RE: on the KSauce CW).

In response to all the questions about me, I haven't done SE before but I've played a lot of these social deduction games irl. I'm definitely seeing that it's a pretty different skill set but whatever, it works.

Reading through, I do think that we are defaulting to not considering people who are less active atm, which is probably a good idea, but still worth considering. Irl targeting quiet people is good but here, could be due to any number of factors, as could people being significantly more active.

I don't think we should tie. Advocating for ties seems really sus to me. Even if we get more info that way, we're still shortening the time that the elims need. We can also get info out of what they do at night without killing two or three people.

 I'm aware I kind of just said a lot of words without actually talking a stance on much so uh, Striker for the moment 

Edited May 23, 2025 by Negative_Null
Misread usernames

[Kasimir he/him]

49 minutes ago, Negative_Null said:

In response to all the questions about me, I haven't done SE before but I've played a lot of these social deduction games irl. I'm definitely seeing that it's a pretty different skill set but whatever, it works.

Reading through, I do think that we are defaulting to not considering people who are less active atm, which is probably a good idea, but still worth considering. Irl targeting quiet people is good but here, could be due to any number of factors, as could people being significantly more active. 

Fair, and good to know. I mean, I've said this in PMs so I might as well say out loud: I think Spirit mentioned most of his experience is from IRL and he's played some pretty impressive Elim games here tbh so I don't think it's entirely incompatible. My favourite was GMing and watching him stonewall this very scary Village player  

Could go both ways. I'd probably be more antsy about the actives if I didn't read so many of them as Village, so I want to look at the people going under the radar for a bit. I guess I should say it explicitly in thread since I told Striker as much when he asked me why I was sussing him: as a player, Striker tends to be a risk demon, and IMO like Aster, both of them can end up being read as Elim pretty easily even when they're Village. Both of them have respectable maf games, and I guess part of it is because they play so well with risk.

This matters because I agree that his stance on ties on D1 etc kind of gels with V!Striker, I still like his entrance, but ngl I'm not really thrilled with his EoD which had a bit of "he's here to watch Rome burn and play the fiddle" energy. I also think it's kind of weird Striker pushed KSauce on the specific theory that KSauce had inactive teammates—it just feels like a hyper-specific scenario to consider, to the point it feels forced. Striker's rejoinder was that it's D1, most reasoning is forced, which...is consistent with how V!Striker has argued previously (AG8) even though I actually also think it is a little bad faith (forced =/= finding the most specific and therefore arguably lower probability world to work with.)

My main reason for not pushing Striker rn is a bit selfish which is that I haven't played with him in over two years, assume he's also a tad rusty, and want him to get into the game so I can read him better. But I guess if I'm being honest, I'm watching him. I'm open to the thought I'm just reading him wrong rn.

56 minutes ago, Negative_Null said:

I don't think we should tie. Advocating for ties seems really sus to me. Even if we get more info that way, we're still shortening the time that the elims need. We can also get info out of what they do at night without killing two or three people.

Would like to give you credit for this but tbh I feel Aster looks the best out of everyone over the tie dialogue because that's kind of too Elim-sided (at face value) for an Elim to want to actively push for. Asterisks because Aster loves risks. But...honestly yeah kinda talking myself into promoting Aster by a read tier potentially.

But also, there's no night... No night kill either...

57 minutes ago, Negative_Null said:

 I'm aware I kind of just said a lot of words without actually talking a stance on much so uh, Striker for the moment 

Just want to remind for your benefit and everyone else's that you cannot legally edit into your text Really tiny changes is fine (e.g. spelling/grammar) but IMO something like a wrong vote should have an edit note and then you change the vote and @ the GM (there's a more specific rule you cannot edit in votes and should make a fresh post but this was way before the automerge toxicity.)

Edited to add:

For the record, I did see the OG vote and it was for Polly.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Odd question: Do you think a team which watched the whole trying to get me to push you/allow you to be exed thing result in the deaths of E!Aman and E!Aeo would think this is a viable strat in a V!Kas world?

I recognise it's somewhat implied in low thread control but I think there's some exclusions possible.

Hmmm, not sure if the cases are comparable here. No one is aggressively making a case for me to you, and iirc nothing in mech was pointing towards me. 

I do think you go mech > VCA > post vibes. 

And I do think I'm at the point of v!Kas because he is all about optimal play and I can't see a world where he foregoes an exe on me just to exe me the next cycle. proactive > stifled discussions

[Kasimir he/him]

Back to RBM. Aster may have cooked with that vote.

I'll reply and post vc later but RBM is second voter, and I'd like to know what was on his mind at that time 

EDIT:

Tbh I'd forgotten that vote existed. 

[Negative_Null They/Them]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Striker tends to be a risk demon, and IMO like Aster, both of them can end up being read as Elim pretty easily even when they're Village.

I hear you saying this for both Striker and Aster, which is why I'm not hitting them too hard. I'll still put a vote there because I don't have many better ideas at the moment, but I'm far from tunneling there. Just need more leads.

I see the logic behind allowing for ties, but just for consistency/devil's advocate sakes, I'll continue to argue against it. Let's get some factioning up in here, makes things easier.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Just want to remind for your benefit and everyone else's that you cannot legally edit into your text Really tiny changes is fine (e.g. spelling/grammar) but IMO something like a wrong vote should have an edit note and then you change the vote and @ the GM (there's a more specific rule you cannot edit in votes and should make a fresh post but this was way before the automerge toxicity.)

Got it! Thank you. Yeah, I originally voted Kelsier Apologist because I lost track of K names, then thought it was Kasimir I meant, then realized you were just furthering Striker's original argument. So I hope that wasn't too confusing. 
Just for clarity's sake: Striker

 

I get the feeling that Kas and TJ are V, either that or one or probably both is playing total 5d chess with us, which isn't impossible. Irl I would put them as high village vibes but here where you actually can pm and plan, that reduces the likelihood a bit. Just my take. Both play a lot like my friend who always argues for optimal plays no matter which side he's on

[OoklaApologist She/her]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

if deliberate, my vote removal would indicate someone looking for an easy exe,

I wonder if that happens in a new-player dominated team, or one that is less sure of itself. 

Like- they’re afraid of their lack of thread control and try to drag out the game

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Kasimir Can you more thoroughly explain the RBM vote? I’m not really sure where that’s coming from. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@Kasimir Can you more thoroughly explain the RBM vote? I’m not really sure where that’s coming from. 

RBM is the second voter on KSauce and I'd completely forgotten that vote even existed. I've been going over the past cycle - chronologically, it's #1 Penguin, #2 RBM, #3 you. I linked the post RBM made because RBM dropped the vote, refused to elaborate too much beyond the post, and left. Not even a vote from Aster got an explanation. It's certainly true that RBM might've been RL busy but IMO KSauce regardless is a Villager who went over, and in light of that, I'm trying to learn more about weird votes given the suspicion the train had an Elim.

Maybe it's clean, sure. But lead train, and if everyone still thinks E!TJ (we'll find out shortly), there probably had better be one on KSauce, and if it's not you or Penguin...

P.S. To everyone, I've been on the Shard since 2014 and I only just learned via Dragonmount which has a similar forum interface that pressing the arrow on the top right corner of a quote takes you to the OG post, on mobile or browser

Bee replies to you saying:

Quote

So far not much to go off of for anyone. However I don’t entirely trust the way that KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren is acting right now 

What KSauce did before that:

-Vote TJ
-Reply to Penguin about being asleep (same post as TJ vote)
-Random.org joke
-Determinism can of worms opened 

What's this vote based on? Where's Roy coming from? Aster asked about this and I don't recall us getting an answer even after RBM showed up again this cycle.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

That could just be clueless newbie villager…but you’re right that it is very suspicious…. RBM turned KSauce into a viable train. I could be convinced to switch my vote from TJ to RBM.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

I’ve got to go soon and won’t be back until after rollover, so I’m voting TUO. TJ is the most sus, but he’s pretty safely ahead votewise, so I’m adding my vote for future use. I don’t have any great reasons for TUO aside from vibes, but I don’t have a read on the inactives and Kas seems pretty safe to me.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Anyone happen to have an up-to-date vote count? Jo hasn’t updated the spreadsheet in a bit

[Kasimir he/him]

@Negative_Null - Can I ask what was in your head at the point of this vote? This was the votestate when you voted TUN:

Quote

TJ (3): KSauce, TOW
KSauce (3): Penguin, RBM, Striker
Polly (2): Kas
Aster (1): Spirit
Striker (1): Triple B
Kas (1): Tinwatcher
RBM (1): Aster
Penguin (1): TUN

Striker had unvoted TUN, and TUN had voted Penguin quite a few posts ago, so there was no way voting TUN would've created a tie, as you proposed. You're also more anti-tie today: what changed?

Edited to add:

Nvm ignore the tie question, I've just found this post which suggests that you thought it would avoid an exe and that you wanted to vote for a no exe D1.

...I kinda wanna V!read that, ironically, lol.

Edited to add 2:

Lmao gdi I guess I mindmelded with D1 Kas?

On 5/22/2025 at 6:16 PM, Kasimir said:

Low key wanna slightly give Null mild village points for this. If in Null's head, it was gonna be a tie before this, then E!Null should be flipping a chull.

Anyway, @StrikerEZ - I'll try to clear the cycle and come back with a vc, I'm hoping to at least briefly drop a D1 vote analysis even though I also know there is no NK so I can be contemporary I guess.

Edited May 23, 2025 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Anyway, @StrikerEZ - I'll try to clear the cycle and come back with a vc, I'm hoping to at least briefly drop a D1 vote analysis even though I also know there is no NK so I can be contemporary I guess.

Sweet thank you. Driving again so can’t make my own lmao

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

18 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyone happen to have an up-to-date vote count? Jo hasn’t updated the spreadsheet in a bit

I was asleep. Awake now.

Ending Vote Count: |TJ|: 6 The Unknown Order: 3 RoyalBeeMage: 3 StrikerEZ: 3 KelsierApologist: 2 YEVAD: 2 THE DEMON: 2 Aster: 2 IcedOutPenguin: 1 ThatOneWorldhopper: 1 Tinwatcher: 1 Kasimir: 1

 

Edited May 23, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush