Quick Fix 75: The Tower's Pressure

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I'm feeling vindicated right now. Will respond to BBB etc in a bit.

[Kasimir he/him]

To further explicate what I mean by 

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

if we see indications we are very wrong about who the Elims are.

This differs from game to game but personally for me, I don't consider TUO or Polly to be really on the table until the <Triple B, Striker, Tinwatcher, myself, Null, TOW> pool is at least cleared or resolved. Even then, I might prefer to revise in <Spirit, Penguin, Aster> prior to them. In general, paranoia screws the Village over so I like to contain it by tier.

I don't have a strong theory behind the Soothe which is your other question - I've looked at it, but feel that and just in general vote patterns across cycles is probably something I prefer to do an actual link analysis chart to make sense of, which is going to take time if I choose to commit to it.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Hey sorry I wasn’t around for EoD or the start of this cycle. I was driving all morning and honestly forgot about the game lol

Anyway, TJ is finally dead, yay! Not sure why they canceled Spirit’s votes. To protect TUO, maybe? But he’s also the one who pushed TJ so much (along with Polly). Maybe to make us suspect TUO instead of someone else? I’m not sure how many layers of IKYK are happening here, but for now I’m gonna place a vote on TUO so I don’t forget to place a vote later. I’ll be a little bit less active for this weekend (have friends over for Memorial Day) and want to make sure I don’t end up with a vote on myself if I don’t make it back online before the end of the cycle.

[Aster]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 I go back and forth about Aster. I didn't like Aster's EoD post D1 about no KSauce dogpile:

In that I still want to know how/why Aster believes the KSauce train is pure. (KSauce had Penguin, Roy, and Striker.) I still think trying to suggest at exact rollover point that KSauce flips maf feels a bit more like a Villager speculation - I'm not sure I think an Elim naturally thinks to keep the jig up. I also liked Aster's brazen pro-tie position. I don't agree with it, but I feel that it does make Aster very villagery compared to everyone else in contention. That being said, I would expect this kind of play from Stick, e.g. AG9, where she sent a message to the player she was going to kill (hi) for Village cred.

 

I didn't mean that was pure; i had almost no time till phase ended so i wasn't able to clearly formulate what i was thinking

i was wondering why, (as i thought sense of humour was suspicious and seemed suspicious in general) maf wasn't dogpiling on them to ensure a sense of humour exe rather than a close thing

it probably wasn't the most reasonable thought to have but it's what i was thinking. i will make no comments on whether that train was pure or not though

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Easing off of Striker suspicions, because TJ supported them and it didn't seem like he was bussing. It also seemed a bit too early. 

1 minute ago, Aster said:

i will make no comments on whether that train was pure or not though

I'm going to vote Aster, this comment felt really weird to me. Not "I didn't make any comments," "I won't"

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Aster said:

I didn't mean that was pure; i had almost no time till phase ended so i wasn't able to clearly formulate what i was thinking

i was wondering why, (as i thought sense of humour was suspicious and seemed suspicious in general) maf wasn't dogpiling on them to ensure a sense of humour exe rather than a close thing

it probably wasn't the most reasonable thought to have but it's what i was thinking. i will make no comments on whether that train was pure or not though

Sense of humo(u)r exe?

[Kasimir he/him]

54 minutes ago, Aster said:

i was wondering why, (as i thought sense of humour was suspicious and seemed suspicious in general) maf wasn't dogpiling on them to ensure a sense of humour exe rather than a close thing

Fair. I think the experienced members of the team will advocate avoiding the LHF where possible, and it's possible the less experienced members did struggle.

49 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Sense of humo(u)r exe?

KSauce.

Let's chase down one theory RE: Striker's C2 saving vote.

The vote is cast at 2157hrs - 3 minutes to rollover. We know TJ was around at EoD, meaning it was possible for TJ to change orders in response to Striker if necessary.

The sequence of events at EoD:

1. The votes remain at:

Quote

TJ (6): TUN, Polly, Striker
RBM (3): Kas
TUN (3): Spirit, Triple B
Striker (3): TOW, Null
Aster (2): 
Polly (2):
YEVAD (2):
Demon (2):
Tinwatcher (1): Tinwatcher
TOW (1):
Kasimir (1):
Penguin (1):

As per call from Jo, who also made a post before my count (I've eyeballed it and don't see any differences, but yeah, we know vcs are cursed here.)

These should be our trains of interest currently. Highlighting for credences, but you can ignore any highlights since they're just credences and not anything solid. Note that if Striker is E, then Tinwatcher's, TOW's, and Null's votes actually look pretty good here. The team cannot afford to double distance like this though it would explain the RBM shift.

2. TJ votes RBM at 2134hrs, or 26 minutes to rollover.

I swear I've gotten the vote effects correctly this time. -1 vote from TJ, +1 to RBM.

Quote

TJ (5): TUN, Polly, Striker
RBM (4): Kas, TJ
TUN (3): Spirit, Triple B
Striker (3): TOW, Null
Aster (2): 
Polly (2):
YEVAD (2):
Demon (2):
Tinwatcher (1): Tinwatcher
TOW (1):
Kasimir (1):
Penguin (1):

TJ pinging Striker for a save is interesting to me and makes me feel like a team-up is less likely. Because that's kind of blatant, and TJ's aware of the 'distance or die' problem. He's on his way out, and the last thing he wants to do is to get spotlight on his teammates. However, I guess it's possible that it's used to account for/pave a shift, but yeah.

On 5/23/2025 at 9:34 PM, |TJ| said:

How do you read me outside the vote removal? I think that's the only thing I remember you mentioning about me this cycle. Could you switch to RBM? 

3. Polly does the ping. No takers. 

4. At 2157hrs, Striker makes the shift.

Quote

TJ (4): TUN, Polly
RBM (5): Kas, TJ, Striker
TUN (3): Spirit, Triple B
Striker (3): TOW, Null
Aster (2): 
Polly (2):
YEVAD (2):
Demon (2):
Tinwatcher (1): Tinwatcher
TOW (1):
Kasimir (1):
Penguin (1):

This pushes RBM over TJ. 

5. At EoD, we see that the vote was removed from Triple B, which is the TUN side-train. I do wonder if there's a world in which the Elims try to establish distance by removing from TUN over Striker.

I think the more interesting question here though is: what happens if Striker doesn't make the shift?

Quote

TJ (5): TUN, Polly, Striker
RBM (4): Kas, TJ
TUN (3): Spirit, Triple B
Striker (3): TOW, Null
Aster (2): 
Polly (2):
YEVAD (2):
Demon (2):
Tinwatcher (1): Tinwatcher
TOW (1):
Kasimir (1):
Penguin (1):

They could Soothe in <TUN, Polly, Striker>, but - actually why don't they just Soothe Polly in this world. Polly voted TJ twice (C1, C2 according to the spreadsheet.) If they Soothe Polly, then the votes are 3/4, and RBM quite simply dies over TJ without difficulties.

I'm going to guess this might have been their gameplan, but also suggests that the Elims did not need to expose E!Striker by having him vote to save TJ in this choreography.

Edited to add:

However, tbh, I think it's possible the Elims simply did not see a double Soothe via Polly was possible. It's not my immediate assumption, but it's a unique mech in this game, and I can't really rule out that people could just have failed to understand how it works.

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

I just realized this, but I think that there is at most one elim in <Triple B, Penguin>.  Their interaction "How does one go about joining…" seems like something that would be discussed in-doc if they were both elims.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Not referring to that Mr GM sir  I was saying it's twice someone's taken a vote off TUN in the process.

Ah, I see. (Doesn't see)

7 hours ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Also also, @A Jo in the Bush, shouldn’t @YEVAD have four votes, since he didn’t vote for anyone last turn?

As far as my spreadsheet says, no? YEVAD has voted for himself on turns 1, 2, and 3, and No one else has voted on him. He's currently voting on himself right now, though I will likely 'erase' that vote to give the pinch Hitters a fighting chance. THE DEMON has 4, because The Unknown Order voted for him last cycle.

[BigBadBagsworth He/him/his]

@A Jo in the Bush oh. Sorry!

[Kasimir he/him]

39 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Ah, I see. (Doesn't see)

As far as my spreadsheet says, no? YEVAD has voted for himself on turns 1, 2, and 3, and No one else has voted on him. He's currently voting on himself right now, though I will likely 'erase' that vote to give the pinch Hitters a fighting chance. THE DEMON has 4, because The Unknown Order voted for him last cycle.

Triple B on C2. Spirit last cycle. In both cases the removed votes affected TUN among others. That's what I meant. 

Or to paraphrase the meme:

"If I had a dollar for each time a vote was removed from TUN, I'd have $2. Which isn't much but it's strange it happened twice."

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

"If I had a dollar for each time a vote was removed from TUN, I'd have $2. Which isn't much but it's strange it happened twice."

The biggest problem for us is that we don't know how smart the elims are. They could be bad and just be trying to save TUN. They could be good and are trying to frame him. They could be really smart and we could just descend into layers of IKYK. 

We also don't know how smart they think we are, and that influences how they save people.

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

Who is TUN?

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

33 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Who is TUN?

The Unknown Novel, TUO's earlier name.

Wait, did I switch to saying TUN? How did that happen. Does my subconscious like Novels more than Orders? 

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

11 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

The Unknown Novel, TUO's earlier name.

Wait, did I switch to saying TUN? How did that happen. Does my subconscious like Novels more than Orders? 

I've been so confused, thanks for clearing that up!

[Lord Spirit he/him]

I’m not going to be on tomorrow, so I’ll place my vote on TUO. My previous votes got canceled, so I might have been onto something. (Or maybe not). Either way, preferable to self voting. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

13 hours ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Also, surface motives of the soothe (is that the right term?) seem to be to be to take TUO out of the second (now first) place tie, and possibly to lower pressure on Aster too. But of course, that could just be framing TUO, especially because of how easy it is to get momentum enough on a train to get someone else out. Still, just cuz I don’t personally have any other leads, I’m leaning toward TUO

@KelsierApologist they didn’t use it yet.

 

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hey sorry I wasn’t around for EoD or the start of this cycle. I was driving all morning and honestly forgot about the game lol

Anyway, TJ is finally dead, yay! Not sure why they canceled Spirit’s votes. To protect TUO, maybe? But he’s also the one who pushed TJ so much (along with Polly). Maybe to make us suspect TUO instead of someone else? I’m not sure how many layers of IKYK are happening here, but for now I’m gonna place a vote on TUO so I don’t forget to place a vote later. I’ll be a little bit less active for this weekend (have friends over for Memorial Day) and want to make sure I don’t end up with a vote on myself if I don’t make it back online before the end of the cycle.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Spirit said:

I’m not going to be on tomorrow, so I’ll place my vote on TUO. My previous votes got canceled, so I might have been onto something. (Or maybe not). Either way, preferable to self voting. 

To clarify, your reason for voting me, after being the first one on TJ (a flipped elim), and spearheading the exe on him, is because the elims soothed a vote off me twice. When I wasn't in danger, and wasn't the only one being soothed in either occasion?

Come on now, you can find a better reason than that. Look into the countertrains c2, the people who openly tried to exe anyone other than the elim. Look at Striker, whose singular vote switch saved TJ.

The elims don’t even have to be trying to save me here. They could just as easily have been soothing the others (Striker was one of the other people soothed!). In fact, my guess would be that they soothed Striker to keep him safe, then saw some people start to sus me for it, so they soothed me again actually trying to frame me that time.

If that still hasn't convinced you, think about why an elim would vote as I have. I led the charge against TJ c2 before anyone else even began to suspect him. If I hadn't gone after him, he might never have gotten exed, but what didn't I do? When his exe was a foregone conclusion and I could have racked up the easy village points for being on the train to exe an elim two cycles in a row, I didn't vote TJ. I didn't vote TJ early on in the cycle so that the elims wouldn't try to soothe me to save TJ. Then, when TJ, who I was quite certain was e at that point, was guaranteed to be exed, I voted a secondary train to ensure the Mercy exe wouldn't end up on a tie. And don’t think it's because I would have died in that tie. If I had voted TJ, I would have been at 2 votes, ensuring I never got exed.

So, since both of you made it clear these are placeholder votes, place move them to someone else. My bet would be Striker, but that's your choice. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

27 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

 

 

To clarify, your reason for voting me, after being the first one on TJ (a flipped elim), and spearheading the exe on him, is because the elims soothed a vote off me twice. When I wasn't in danger, and wasn't the only one being soothed in either occasion?

Come on now, you can find a better reason than that. Look into the countertrains c2, the people who openly tried to exe anyone other than the elim. Look at Striker, whose singular vote switch saved TJ.

The elims don’t even have to be trying to save me here. They could just as easily have been soothing the others (Striker was one of the other people soothed!). In fact, my guess would be that they soothed Striker to keep him safe, then saw some people start to sus me for it, so they soothed me again actually trying to frame me that time.

If that still hasn't convinced you, think about why an elim would vote as I have. I led the charge against TJ c2 before anyone else even began to suspect him. If I hadn't gone after him, he might never have gotten exed, but what didn't I do? When his exe was a foregone conclusion and I could have racked up the easy village points for being on the train to exe an elim two cycles in a row, I didn't vote TJ. I didn't vote TJ early on in the cycle so that the elims wouldn't try to soothe me to save TJ. Then, when TJ, who I was quite certain was e at that point, was guaranteed to be exed, I voted a secondary train to ensure the Mercy exe wouldn't end up on a tie. And don’t think it's because I would have died in that tie. If I had voted TJ, I would have been at 2 votes, ensuring I never got exed.

So, since both of you made it clear these are placeholder votes, place move them to someone else. My bet would be Striker, but that's your choice. 

Well, I’m not voting for myself and am also way too tired to parse this out or make a vote count. It’s been a long day. What I can say is that there have been several people who have had votes removed from us. You’re the only one that’s lost two votes. And now that TJ’s gone I am somewhat lost for who to vote for. And there’s been little discussion today so I’m sticking with voting you.

[Kasimir he/him]

12 hours ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

The biggest problem for us is that we don't know how smart the elims are. They could be bad and just be trying to save TUN. They could be good and are trying to frame him. They could be really smart and we could just descend into layers of IKYK. 

We also don't know how smart they think we are, and that influences how they save people.

Just for the record, can I have your stance/position on whether this is a frame or not. Yes or no. If someone put a gun to your head and forced you to pick.

Edit:

@A Jo in the Bush You mentioned neither Demon or Yevad would get the penalty. In light of that, could I request the current vc please?

Edited May 25, 2025 by Kasimir

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Wow, Not a lot of peolp have voted.

As before, metioning those who are still voting for themself.

Currently up for Execution, we have @THE DEMON and @Aster with 4 votes each.
Tied for second, we have @KelsierApologist, The Unknown Order, @YEVAD, @Tinwatcher, and StrikerEZ. with 3 votes each.
In third, we have @BigBadBagsworth, IcedOutPenguin, and ThatOneWorldhopper, with 2 votes each.
Safe in fourth, we have @Negative_Null, Lord Spirit, and Kasimir with 1 vote each.

The Turn ends in 45 minutes

Proper Vote Count:

Spoiler

BigBadBagsworth [ 2 ]: IcedOutPenguin(T3), BigBadBagsworth (T4)
KelsierApologist [ 3 ]: Kasimir(T1), |TJ| (T1), KelsierApologist (T4)
The Unknown Order [ 3 ]:  Negative_Null (T1), BigBadBagsworth (T2), Lord Spirit (T2), StrikerEZ(T4), Lord Spirit (T4)
YEVAD [ 3 ]: YEVAD(T1, T2, T3)
IcedOutPenguin [ 2 ]: The Unknown Order (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T3)
ThatOneWorldhopper [ 2 ]: IcedOutPenguin (T1), Kasimir (T4)
Negative_Null [ 1 ]: Negative_Null (T4)
Lord Spirit [ 1 ]: Negative_Null (T3)
Tinwatcher [ 3 ]: Tinwatcher (T2), Aster, (T3), Tinwatcher (T4)
THE DEMON [ 4 ]: The Demon (T1, T2, T3), The Unknown Order (T3)
StrikerEZ [ 3 ]: BigBadBagsworth (T1), ThatOneWorldhopper (T2), Negative Null (T2), The Unknown Order (T4)
Aster [ 4 ]: Lord Spirit (T1), Aster (T2, T4), IcedOutPenguin (T4), ThatOneWorldhopper (T4)
Kasimir [ 1 ]: Tinwatcher (T1)

 

Edited May 25, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@A Jo in the Bush wait isn’t TUO voting for me?

EDIT: I’m apparently stupid because your vote count does say that. Don’t know what I saw a second ago lmao

Edited May 25, 2025 by StrikerEZ

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@A Jo in the Bush wait isn’t TUO voting for me?

Yes? Is that not reflected?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, A Jo in the Bush said:

Yes? Is that not reflected?

Yeah it does. I’m just stupid and somehow thought it didn’t lmao

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, I’m not voting for myself and am also way too tired to parse this out or make a vote count. It’s been a long day. What I can say is that there have been several people who have had votes removed from us. You’re the only one that’s lost two votes. And now that TJ’s gone I am somewhat lost for who to vote for. And there’s been little discussion today so I’m sticking with voting you.

There's always the side-train option. Still of the view that voting a TJ pusher is actual Village malpractice this early on.

Which is also why I'm unvoting TOW after further thought.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

There's always the side-train option. Still of the view that voting a TJ pusher is actual Village malpractice this early on.

Which is also why I'm unvoting TOW after further thought.

Who are you gonna vote for instead? Because now you’re voting on yourself