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Posted

I am not an elim. I swear by my kindle, which contains basically every sanderbook ever. (You’re welcome, @ThatOneWorldhopper)

This sounds like a total elim question, but I actually can’t find the awnser; did anyone ever say how many elims there are?

@ThatOneWorldhopper Also, I have no Idea what’s going on and don’t know a third of all the acronyms everyone is using. I’m basically just going along with people who I think are the good guys, since I have no Idea how to make things happen myself. 
 

Also, if someone could draw me up a list of terms and acronyms, I will compliment your hair (or lack therof)

 

Posted
11 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Also, if someone could draw me up a list of terms and acronyms, I will compliment your hair (or lack therof)

It would be easier if you gave some that were tripping you up and then we could define those. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, as someone who would love to just tie everything up all the time, the reason I think others are wary of ties is because it does the elims’ job faster for them. And because of their vote manip, they can just keep saving themselves from ties if that’s all we do. 

i think the detractors of ties are assuming that everyone we vote is gonna be village, which isn't a very hopeful assumption to make

i prefer to think that the more people we hit, the more likely it is that we get an elim out. better to hit two town and an elim than just one town

Posted
5 minutes ago, Aster said:

i think the detractors of ties are assuming that everyone we vote is gonna be village, which isn't a very hopeful assumption to make

i prefer to think that the more people we hit, the more likely it is that we get an elim out. better to hit two town and an elim than just one town

Yeah I can agree with this

Posted
7 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

That feels too weird. I'm going to have to keep calling you TUF)

Fun fact, TUO was actually first. If you go to my profile and click my name, you can see all of my past names.

2 hours ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

Sorry I’m late! I don’t have my phone most of the day, and computer access is limited. After reviewing everything, I’ma leave my vote on myself, though I’m venturing a theory that ThatOneWorldhopper is an elim, and the elims cleared his votes a) to save |TJ| or to frame him, and b) to remove suspicion from TOW. But this is literally my first game, so I’m probably wrong, which is why I’m leaving my vote on myself.

Also, someone else vote for me; I feel like if I’m ignored long enough, someone’s gonna assume I’m an Elim.

Also, @KelsierApologist, What’s TWTBAT?

To wolfy to be wolfy, it essentially means someone seems so much like an elim that they can't be an elim. There's some higher philosophy principles behind it, bit tbf I don't understand them and you don't need to either.

1 hour ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Who did TUO end up voting for last turn?

StrikerEZ for now, but still unsure about |TJ| and TUO.

Striker had a weird comment earlier, which it will not let me bring in, but it's the first thing he said in C1. I'm with |TJ|'s vibes on it.

I voted Penguin.

1 hour ago, Aster said:

why is everyone saying we have to avoid ties? i think ties are actually good

elims have to react if they’re part of a tie and there’s a far higher probability of actually getting one

One player must die every cycle, which means we have X cycles til we lose. If two players die in one cycle, we then have X-1 cycles, meaning we essentially lose 24 hours of discussion. Ties are useful as threats, but ideally we never actually have one at EoD in this ruleset imo.

1 hour ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I'm actually thinking maybe a e/e @IcedOutPenguin/ @BigBadBagsworth. Their interaction: "but that's mean" "okay" seemed off to me. Keeping vote on Striker for now, but...

I need to make a spreadsheet.

Edit: tagging because I really want to hear their explanation. 

Don't do it. Don't fall to the darkside :P Spreadsheets are devil spawn. 

42 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

I am not an elim. I swear by my kindle, which contains basically every sanderbook ever. (You’re welcome, @ThatOneWorldhopper)

This sounds like a total elim question, but I actually can’t find the awnser; did anyone ever say how many elims there are?

@ThatOneWorldhopper Also, I have no Idea what’s going on and don’t know a third of all the acronyms everyone is using. I’m basically just going along with people who I think are the good guys, since I have no Idea how to make things happen myself. 
 

Also, if someone could draw me up a list of terms and acronyms, I will compliment your hair (or lack therof)

 

We do not know, though I was hoping to set aside some time to think it through. I have not been able to yet unfortunately. 

25 minutes ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

TWTBAW, All the acronyms starting with TU_ (I assume TUO is @The Unknown Order, but am stumped on the others), and ksos

Also, where has @The Unknown Order been for the entirety of the second episode? This rouses my suspicions and tingles my spider sense.

TUO

Yep, you can see my past names on my profile or in my signature (if you're on anything other than Portrait mode phone). You might also see me referred to as:

TUO, TUA, TUA, TUN, TKN, and I think that's it.

As for where I've been, school and wrestling practice. Normally I can be on during schoolwork, but I was in the zone today.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Aster said:

why is everyone saying we have to avoid ties? i think ties are actually good

elims have to react if they’re part of a tie and there’s a far higher probability of actually getting one

I don't like endgame ties because I don't believe in our accuracy and I think we are more often than not going to hit a villager when we broaden the scope of who is dying. You and Striker are fundamentally risk demons - I don't like the risk. 

I also think ties leading up to endgame are good. Your second statement doesn't require an endgame tie - it's possible to endorse it without endorsing an endgame tie.

Edited to add:

23 minutes ago, Aster said:

i prefer to think that the more people we hit, the more likely it is that we get an elim out. better to hit two town and an elim than just one town

  Again, by this line of reasoning, the game-winning strategy is to tie everyone but yourself and two other strong village reads because you'll most likely kill all the Elims that way!

Edited by Kasimir
Posted

I’m tired and lack motivation to re-read and analyze how suspicious everyone is, but here’s my thoughts on strategy. 
 

The cycles in this game are interesting because with no exing, having a tie is essentially the same as two cycles, except the elims only have one vote removal. 

No exing also means that if we feel pretty safe about someone being a villager we don’t have to worry about them dying. 

Also, we should group up on the top few people who are suspicious. Having a bunch of people leaving their votes on themselves makes it that much easier for the elims to start a CW on them. (I’ll follow my own advice  once I have enough time to actually get a feel for who is suspicious :P)

Also also, if it makes sense, avoid voting on the same person too many times to make vote erasing less powerful to save any one person. (Though this is more if you have multiple suspicions and are trying to decide who to vote for. Don’t not vote for someone legitimately suspicious just because you already voted for them.)

Posted

Edited to add 2:

1 hour ago, BigBadBagsworth said:

This sounds like a total elim question, but I actually can’t find the awnser; did anyone ever say how many elims there are?

  No, but the standard for a normal game of this size is about 3-4. If this were a completely normal game with a standard kill and all regulars, it's 3 Elims for 15 players. Our issue is we don't know how big the team goes - since the rule is pretty non-standard, Jo might buff them by adding more. IMO in the most oddball world, we have a new player-dominant team of 6 but 6 might be pushing it. I think I speculated 6 yesterday but am back to 3-4.

IMO Aster reads more Village in that exchange than Striker does. Hope is not a strategy but Aster is a risk demon. I asterisk the read because I do think it can be a slightly Elim leaning one.

4 hours ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I don't think the elims would do something so obvious as clear TJ's votes, so the person who immediately told us why that would make TJ an Elim is under my suspicion.

What's the alternative for the Elims in your view - lie down and let E!TJ die?

5 hours ago, KelsierApologist said:

I could see a world where either the doc refuses to answer some questions or he consciously chooses to ask here instead

Sure - can you offer me odds on which world is more likely?

5 hours ago, Negative_Null said:

I would cautiously venture a Striker proposal, not seriously, just saying that imo, people that take this much of a leadership role are often elims. Granted, my meta could be different, and y'all might have a better idea. But putting it out for discussion.

@|TJ| - Null played before you said? This is either classic new player kneejerk, or a new player Elim. I did feel eh about the EoD, but yeah. This isn't particularly helpful (and if E!TJ, Striker would be one of the players I'd squint at RE: on the KSauce CW).

5 minutes ago, Lord Spirit said:

The cycles in this game are interesting because with no exing, having a tie is essentially the same as two cycles, except the elims only have one vote removal. 

With no exeing, death-wise it's equivalent to a normal cycle since that's the NK accounted for.

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Reason no. 2 would be, they had a vote cancel and they wanted to use it/ didn't want to waste or holster it. In this case, I'd be suspicious of Polly because, if they had cancelled a vote off the Ksos train, we'd all be removed and the only reason they wouldn't want that is if Polly is evil. 

Polly was at 2 man there was no way in hell you all get removed unless you and Ksos both have a vote removed.

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Reason no. 3 is quite silly but I've been in games scratching my head at things at things don't make sense and it's usually because the elim team messed up. This would actually be my best guess.

I'm confused about where this comes from.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't like endgame ties because I don't believe in our accuracy and I think we are more often than not going to hit a villager when we broaden the scope of who is dying. You and Striker are fundamentally risk demons - I don't like the risk. 

I also think ties leading up to endgame are good. Your second statement doesn't require an endgame tie - it's possible to endorse it without endorsing an endgame tie.

Edited to add:

  Again, by this line of reasoning, the game-winning strategy is to tie everyone but yourself and two other strong village reads because you'll most likely kill all the Elims that way!

Me and Kas agreeing on something? Check hell, it must be frozen over. :P

I mean, technically that would be a fairly effective strategy, assuming all other players are idiots and/or inactive. 

Posted
1 hour ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I need to make a spreadsheet.

That is the Devil whispering on your shoulder. Or maybe an angel. It's hard to tell sometimes, but I listened, and now I run these games. It's a slippery slope.

Anyway.

I think this is currently up to date

Current Vote Count:
|TJ|: 6
KelsierApologist: 2
The Unknown Order: 2
YEVAD: 2
RoyalBeeMage: 2
THE DEMON: 2
Aster: 2
Kasimir: 2
Lord Spirit: 1
Tinwatcher: 1
StrikerEZ: 2IcedOutPenguin: 1
ThatOneWorldhopper: 1
Negative_Null: 1

 

11 and a half hours left of Turn 2!

Posted
3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I mean, technically that would be a fairly effective strategy, assuming all other players are idiots and/or inactive. 

Honestly I don't disagree with it, but I'd also generally not believe I'm that good, and it feelsbad to go "yeah you can't remotely be read I'm going to just kill you all just in case" cf. LG12 the Desolation of Elantris. I'm aware it's game-winning, I just also think it's cold. Just from the perspective of people taking it seriously and campaigning to be in that last three, it's going to be pretty much just accelerated lylo.

I think it's also possible to adopt a different game lock strategy FWIW, which would probably skew Village in terms of results, it would just also be boring as all hell.

5 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Me and Kas agreeing on something? Check hell, it must be frozen over. :P

That's weird to me in a way. You have views on risk I typically don't but you're also colder on epistemic risk than I am.

Current reads:

Light Village: Penguin, Spirit
Mild Village: Aster, Striker???Tinwatcher
Null: Anyone not mentioned, TUN, TOW*, Polly???
Null-: TJ

@Lord Spirit had a good catch about not redoing your votes too many times because of the Elims; in light of TJ's monopoly, I'm voting RBM. I don't want to do Polly again because I'm worried I'm overtunneling.

@The Unknown Order Reads other than TJ Evil? Secondary train who?

Edited to add:

ffs

RBM @A Jo in the Bush

Posted
3 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Is that Royal Bee Mage you're voting on?

Yes sorry.

Posted
52 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sure - can you offer me odds on which world is more likely?

I know that I’ve specifically (lightly) discussed this in a doc before. I’d say about 60-40 genuine-fake

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

LG12

ooh, vintage

34 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm worried I'm overtunneling.

On overtunneling: we have to be aware of the fact that, especially later in the game, tunnels lay tracks for trains. A stacked tunnel has the potential to build quick on villagers in a way it can’t — or it’ll be prevented on — for elims. 

Just a bit of warning.

Btw, for whoever asked: TWTBAW is Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf, basically when someone is too much like an elim to actually be one

Posted
1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

(and if E!TJ, Striker would be one of the players I'd squint at RE: on the KSauce CW).

…why? As far as I remember, I voted KSauce before there was even a glimmer of a TJ train forming. I might be misremembering, but I’m pretty sure that’s the case.

Posted
45 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

That's weird to me in a way. You have views on risk I typically don't but you're also colder on epistemic risk than I am.

I think v!me might be less risk averse? (New TUN tell, ask if he would be willing to do a gambit, if yes, elim, if no, village :P )

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Reads other than TJ Evil? Secondary train who?

Nope. Need to relook at things. Part of the problem is that I'm incapable of properly considering conditionals, but I'll try.

Well, maybe not because there's a solid chance I miss rollover but I might get to it tonight.

Posted
5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

…why? As far as I remember, I voted KSauce before there was even a glimmer of a TJ train forming. I might be misremembering, but I’m pretty sure that’s the case.

From a vote analysis perspective, and the fact you were present through to EoD and kept your vote on KSauce man. Vote analysis looks at what people do, not what they say. Easy for Elims to give multiple reasons.

Posted
1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

From a vote analysis perspective, and the fact you were present through to EoD and kept your vote on KSauce man. Vote analysis looks at what people do, not what they say. Easy for Elims to give multiple reasons.

Counterpoint: he was driving

1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said:

Careful with the old person comments, our GM is really old, he might Smite you if you're not careful.

LG3 is crazy though

Posted

Thanks for backing me up Polly, but Kas does have a point. I can say I was driving all I want, but at the end of the day I was at least somewhat around for EoD and did leave my vote on KSauce. So it’s a fair point for Kas to make.

Posted
55 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:
1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

LG12

ooh, vintage

36 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Careful with the old person comments, our GM is really old, he might Smite you if you're not careful.

35 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

LG3 is crazy though

. . . I was spectating during LG2. Of course, back then we didn't call them LG2 or LG 3, it was just SE2 or SE3. You young'uns with your crazy formats don't know how good you have it. Back then we played in 72 hour cycles and we liked it.

Posted
30 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

Counterpoint: he was driving

Tbh I'm of the view we just ignore the inactives since there's no kill. If there's no kill, they can't do terrible things just by sending in orders. There's the other option where we just add them to ties eventually I guess. IDR the PH policy for this game off the top of my head and CBF to check.

Which is an aside to what my immediate thought was, which is that tbh I'm cautiously considering how much the Elims are in the inactives, especially Demon and Yevad. Kinda, a low bar to avoid is to show up and just vote. I'd considered Tinwatcher for the role of one of the lurking Elims but IDK, voting TOW and then realising the mistake and self-voting...not sure that's especially Elim.

Lmao maybe I've forgotten how to play this game.

Anyway.

The people in that set include: <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B, Aster, Spirit, Null.> (All low-lying voters, though maybe that's a bit much to say RE: Aster.)

Of this set, I probably V!read Aster and Spirit, IDK about Null but could theoretically respect TJ's read (not sure, can someone else @The Unknown Order tell me if Null played your LG and how Null's play was?) - some of it depends on if I think E!TJ defends an E!partner that way.

This probably leaves me thinking there is at least one Elim in <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B>. (Realistically maybe just one.) RBM can be an outside possibility for showing up and not caring to vote as I can kinda see E!RBM do that. <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B, RBM.> [NOTE: Remember to pathwalk E/V TJ worlds, am currently working so I don't have time to go too in-depth atm. Ngl not worrying about the NK here is doing wonders for my urgency to get analysis done...]

guess you could say the Elim team doesn't care about removing inactivity votes via the Soothe, but that's also something that's a potential waste of the Soothe for. IDK if they'd necessarily do that. 

There are definitely Elims in the higher activity set, I'm just looking elsewhere because I think TJ is flipping today in most worlds due to vote stability at present. I don't like the vote stability but I think the sidetrains also matter. I think I'm switching to Tinwatcher for the moment.

1 hour ago, KelsierApologist said:

I know that I’ve specifically (lightly) discussed this in a doc before. I’d say about 60-40 genuine-fake

Fair.

42 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I think v!me might be less risk averse? (New TUN tell, ask if he would be willing to do a gambit, if yes, elim, if no, village :P )

Doesn't this mean more risk averse?

38 minutes ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I wish that it was The Demon, but...

RIP

Spoiler

003_FinnBalor_08192018rf_025--2783895845

Watch out, we got a Best Finn Balor fan here 😔

Edited to add:

7 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

. . . I was spectating during LG2. Of course, back then we didn't call them LG2 or LG 3, it was just SE2 or SE3. You young'uns with your crazy formats don't know how good you have it. Back then we played in 72 hour cycles and we liked it.

Spoiler

old-man-yells-at-cloud.jpg?q=65&auto=for

 

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