Quick Fix 75: The Tower's Pressure

[Aster]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think if TJ were Village, I can't see an upside to the vote manip here. Though there's also the question of when it was placed.

RIP Ksauce. I really wanted a Pollyvot rather than either train.

honestly i see a world with experienced maf where they vote manip v!tj to get us to waste a day exeing them

[OoklaApologist She/her]

8 minutes ago, Aster said:

wait what is there no night phase

No night kill, so yeah

ninja’d again

4 minutes ago, Aster said:

honestly i see a world with experienced maf where they vote manip v!tj to get us to waste a day exeing them

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z9TRMQwMNnY&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD

(not dismissing you, it’s valid criticism)

Edited May 22, 2025 by KelsierApologist
better link

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, KelsierApologist said:

???

Stop copying me >.>

3 minutes ago, Aster said:

honestly i see a world with experienced maf where they vote manip v!tj to get us to waste a day exeing them

This is definitely a world that is possible, but it takes such a particular team comp that I think we need to flip TJ before actually pursuing that avenue.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

V is confused at what has happened. 
If TJ had been an elim, he should have voted much sooner to avoid the vote train on himself. But the vote removal to save him does not look good for him being a villager. 
But then again, V is just an orphan who has very little experience dealing with murder. Maybe it would be better to let the old people do the hard work of thinking. For now, V will just wait and listen. 

[Negative_Null They/Them]

I'd be willing to assume that E!TJ, or that the Elims are trying to throw us off. Could go either way. It definitely was a move though

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I think the odds of e!TJ being saved by the elims are higher than v!TJ, but TJ’s refusal to move his vote off himself for a hot minute there is just…confusing. And why not just vote KSauce and not even need the vote manip?

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Aster said:

wait what is there no night phase

This is a QF. Uhhhh if you remember the combined phase thing Drake ran forever ago, the one y'all were not too hot on and were like "let's never do that again", it's that kind of thing, but you signed up for the 24 hour version rather than 48 hour version.

24 minutes ago, Aster said:

honestly i see a world with experienced maf where they vote manip v!tj to get us to waste a day exeing them

I don't disagree but as TUN says, it takes a really specific comp. It's kinda like a frame kill where it requires some thread control, though it's a bit easier than a NK in some respects because there is a more obvious smoking gun. This means it is possible to do two generally mutually-exclusive possibility analyses for worlds and look for compatibility with our current gamestate. Not to mention vote analysis.

I think we are likely going to have to flip TJ regardless - however, I will be dead and in my dotage before I consent to waste a cycle by deciding the exe less than two hours into it (not at you, this is a more general statement.) I'd like to hear TJ's views on his survival, too. 

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

I still have know idea. All your arguments seem good, I might just go back to the random number. 

[Kasimir he/him]

For the record, two things from last cycle:

3 hours ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

Who would I put it on if I retracted it?

I acknowledge my Village read!

I feel this post generally doesn't come from an Elim: E!Penguin asks his docmates, and not Ksauce who to vote for. E!Penguin...just doesn't even ask this question, it's just such a weird question to ask. My one point of hesitation is:

29 minutes ago, IcedOutPenguin said:

I still have know idea. All your arguments seem good, I might just go back to the random number. 

...Why not just random number vote when Ksauce asked for a shift? Why ask Ksauce where your vote would go otherwise? (Note: in a world where the trains were V/V, I don't think this is a big concern. I would argue even in a V/E world, it probably is maybe fine.)

That being said, I think this is generally consistent so far with Penguin's lost behaviour for C1, and I'm ok with a mild to light Citizen read on Penguin.

1 hour ago, Aster said:

i really don’t like sense of humour’s vibes but i also don’t super want to exe them rn - if they’re just desperate town that really feels bad

i’m pretty content with my vote on royalbeemage but think in about it more i do think it intriguing that maf are not trying to dogpile on sense of humour - possibly elim indicative?

I don't know how to regard this post in that I don't understand:

A. Why the maf would be trying to dogpile on KSauce - if you think KSauce has bad vibes (presumably weak null- at least), then why is it intruiging the maf aren't trying to dogpile KSauce? (For that matter, you yourself just mentioned why you wouldn't want to exe KSauce right now - going from that to 'but why aren't the maf trying to kill KSauce though?' is something I don't really understand as a line of thought.)

B. I mean, KSauce pretty much kind of did get dogpiled on so I'm not sure where that conclusion came from. At one point at that EoD, KSauce had 4 votes (hi, guilty) - and before that, KSauce was stable on three. Considering most people were stagnant at one vote this cycle, and before TJ voted Polly, Polly also had one, isn't that pretty much a dogpile anyway? I think the bigger emphasis for me is: maf are not trying to dogpile KSauce - I'm considering if that's TMI, since [Edited to finish thought: we don't know the train composition on KSauce, though I do think Penguin is Village.]

C. Suggesting the maf wanted to dogpile KSauce specifically (implied by "why are they not" suggests a TJ E!read but if not, why not vote TJ?

However: I also don't know if E!Aster chooses to specifically make this post right before the flip, knowing that KSauce is gonna flip Village (due to the vote manipulation.) E!reading KSauce in that window is kinda bold, though I've known Aster never to pass up a bold play.

Kinda makes me wanna V!lean ngl.

I am not accepting complaints I wanna V!read anyone who isn't Polly

Edited May 22, 2025 by Kasimir

[OoklaApologist She/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I am not accepting complaints I wanna V!read anyone who isn't Polly

Complaint: I’m Polly

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

...Why not just random number vote when Ksauce asked for a shift?

Because that would be unfair to the RNG gods. As the only reason I voted for him in the first place was because of a random number. I was the first to vote on him, and it is regrettable that just because I voted on him, it spiraled and he got out. 

I have no idea about Elim strategies so I can't tell whether or not they are trying to throw us off. I is confused. It's so hard to know things, like this. 

View 1. If TJ is an Elim then they would be protecting him,  and it would be logical to vote him out. 

View 2. If TJ isn't an Elim, the Elims might have just seen a convenient opportunity to waste us a cycle eliminating our own. 

Hey! I'm pretty good at this!

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

I am willing to reconsider Kas on an e!TJ but I'm feeling fine with him just having reconsidered and bro-read to the point of wanting someone else.

Tbh I just forgot the Soothe existed and questioned why E!TJ wouldn't, you know, show up and vote before that. And then he continued to make my brain explode by not voting when he could save himself easily - this terrified me that we were in a V!TJ world where he just decided to commit seppuku. I still don't like his entrance and I guess I'll spell out a little what I was doing with my questions.

You can't ask everyone this or it becomes obvious what you're doing. But generally Elims just have Elim entrances, and Villagers have Village entrances, IMO. Sometimes you can force matters a little by throwing an Elim a curveball. Stick and Aman and I think Xino all did that to me by asking me how it felt like to rand Elim for the first time in forever and despite my comments in the E!doc about expecting it, they really threw me off and I think my response was just a tad awkward and unnatural as a result. I did that to E!Moth last game I played (this is more for Aster's benefit) and got a weird answer but decided I wasn't gonna read into it. 

I felt Striker had a pretty casual answer and I liked his vibes. I felt divided about TJ's response but eventually came around to the thought he felt like he was trying to go for an elaborate deflection. It wasn't really casual, just kinda forced/guarded. That was the basis of my OG TJ suspicion, which I think TOW asked me about in that PM but I wasn't into saying too much about it at that time.

Welcome to BS theory brought to you by the fact I don't have enough tea to do vote analysis.

I don't think it was a bro read, just a situational thing. But I acknowledge broing TJ did mean I felt more conflicted about voting him there. Why it's different from last game, IDK what to tell you, I was just more sold on him being Evil last game whereas the situation confused me this one.

1 hour ago, Aster said:

honestly i see a world with experienced maf where they vote manip v!tj to get us to waste a day exeing them

Oh yeah, to you and I think, TUN - I think my main issue is I don't feel the tempo issue is as clear this game. In theory, in a game with a NK, losing a tempo is rough. In a game where votes persist, yeah, you can kinda say the maf gain an advantage by being to make 4-6 persistent votes extra, but these votes also only matter when they create a tie or force a lead train. The upside of tempo IMO is weaker, while the downside of it is higher - that's just more time for the Village to find you.

Something I've found as Elim from previous games: nothing is as bloody annoying as Villagers who won't shut the hell up, stop PMing, and stop questioning the exe and whatever not. Because you have to keep on maintaining control of the gamestate. That is actually a downside, both to the sanity of your thread controller, and to your team if you lack one (because then you are stuck with dealing with Village volatility and having to sit it out.)

tldr;

when you Elim, this is mood at nuisance villagers:

Spoiler

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Oh gosh I just remembered that we have old votes to deal with. Does anyone have a vote tally for right now that includes the leftover votes from last cycle?

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

• @BigBadBagsworth Zero                
• @KelsierApologist Two
• @The Unknown Order One
• @YEVAD One
• @IcedOutPenguin One
• @|TJ| Two
• KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren Executed Turn 1
• @ThatOneWorldhopper Zero
• @Negative_Null Zero
• @RoyalBeeMage One
• @Lord Spirit Zero
• @Tinwatcher Zero
• @THE DEMON One
• @StrikerEZ One
• @Aster One
• @Kasimir One

Quote

TJ (5): TUN, Striker, Polly
Polly (2):
TOW (1): Penguin
Penguin (1):
TUN (1):
YEVAD (1):
DEMON (1):
RBM (1):
Striker (1):
Aster (1):
Kas (1):

Someone @ me if I missed anyone.

@StrikerEZ

[OoklaApologist She/her]

2 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

• @BigBadBagsworth Zero                
• @KelsierApologist Two
• @The Unknown Order One
• @YEVAD One
• @IcedOutPenguin One
• @|TJ| Two
• KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren Executed Turn 1
• @ThatOneWorldhopper Zero
• @Negative_Null Zero
• @RoyalBeeMage One
• @Lord Spirit Zero
• @Tinwatcher Zero
• @THE DEMON One
• @StrikerEZ One
• @Aster One
• @Kasimir One

vNow it is 

1. @BigBadBagsworth One                
2. @KelsierApologist Two
3. @The Unknown Order Two
4. @YEVAD Two
5. @IcedOutPenguin One
6. @|TJ| Six
7. KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren Executed Turn 1
8. @ThatOneWorldhopper Two
9. @Negative_Null Two
10. @RoyalBeeMage Two
11. @Lord Spirit One
12. @Tinwatcher One
13. @THE DEMON Two
14. @StrikerEZ Two
15. @Aster Two
16. @Kasimir Teo

 

Edited May 22, 2025 by KelsierApologist

[StrikerEZ he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Someone @ me if I missed anyone.

@StrikerEZ

You’re technically missing all the self-votes for if people don’t move their votes off themselves

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

You’re technically missing all the self-votes for if people don’t move their votes off themselves

Quote

TJ (6): TUN, Striker, Polly
Tinwatcher (2): Tinwatcher
TOW (2): Penguin
Aster (2):
DEMON (2):
Kas (2):
Null (2):
Polly (2):
RBM (2):
Triple B (2):
YEVAD (2):
Spirit (1):
Striker (1):
TUN (1):
Penguin (1):

Demanding It's in alphabetical order too now, and weighted by real votes first.

[OoklaApologist She/her]

8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

You’re technically missing all the self-votes for if people don’t move their votes off themselves

@me then if I missed anyone

scratch that

[StrikerEZ he/him]

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Demanding It's in alphabetical order too now, and weighted by real votes first.

Of course I’m demanding. I want things to be right.

Anyway, I don’t want today to be spent just sitting around while we wait for the turn to end and TJ to die. Does anyone have any other suspects we could start talking about in the meantime?

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I don’t want today to be spent just sitting around while we wait for the turn to end and TJ to die. Does anyone have any other suspects we could start talking about in the meantime?

I mean, let's pathwalk. If TJ flips E, who are you pushing next in that world? If TJ flips V, who do you push?

I've already listed some posts from last cycle that caught my eye. I generally read them V, though with more hesitancy for Aster as I think there's TMI there and would appreciate further pairs of eyes, hence it being in the thread. My main E candidate would be Polly (need to re-read and rethink admittedly) and actually I think we should all advocate for a CW to TJ regardless - in the world TJ is Elim, if they really choose to Mercy shield TJ, we don't want the exe boomeranging on someone random.

Edited to add:

Just make sure there's a vote differential that can't be blocked by Soothing.

Edited May 22, 2025 by Kasimir

[IcedOutPenguin He/Him]

38 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Of course I’m demanding. I want things to be right.

Anyway, I don’t want today to be spent just sitting around while we wait for the turn to end and TJ to die. Does anyone have any other suspects we could start talking about in the meantime?

Nobody right now. Maybe next cycle though?

[Lord Spirit he/him]

I’m confused with the voting. Aren’t people supposed to put their votes in the spreadsheet? 
Kas’s count has TJ at 6, but the spreadsheet says he only has 3 votes. Which one is accurate?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

7 minutes ago, Lord Spirit said:

I’m confused with the voting. Aren’t people supposed to put their votes in the spreadsheet? 
Kas’s count has TJ at 6, but the spreadsheet says he only has 3 votes. Which one is accurate?

The spreadsheet is updated only by Jo. This isn't like my spreadsheet voting game.

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Lord Spirit said:

I’m confused with the voting. Aren’t people supposed to put their votes in the spreadsheet? 
Kas’s count has TJ at 6, but the spreadsheet says he only has 3 votes. Which one is accurate?

Is this a villager

[|TJ| he/him]

Had to cover half of someone else's shift ;-;

Heading home rn, so I'll talk when I reach back.