DrakeMarshall he/him Posted May 8, 2024 Author Posted May 8, 2024 Vote Tally The Unknown Ajah (1): Cash67 Cash67 (1): The Unknown Ajah Halfway point in the cycle.
Ookla de los Cuervos he/him Posted May 8, 2024 Posted May 8, 2024 28 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said: ... Welp You probably could have played that one off, but you just made our lives easier. That's the flaw of newbie teams. hm? explain. i think i know what you mean.
Aeternum Posted May 8, 2024 Posted May 8, 2024 1 hour ago, The Unknown Ajah said: ... Welp You probably could have played that one off, but you just made our lives easier. That's the flaw of newbie teams. I'm glad you bring this up because I was just thinking about something similar with possible elim team compositions.
Aeternum Posted May 8, 2024 Posted May 8, 2024 (edited) Inability to just click ISO is slowly getting to me lol. C3 votes 13 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said: Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (2): Aeternum, Kasimir The Unknown Ajah (1): Cash67 Cash67 (1): The Unknown Ajah Did not vote: Weirdo, Quivil, Weaver Surprised that RBM's teammates did not vote another wagon to save RBM. Weirdo was around, yet did not vote - even after Cash and TUA had voted. Newbie elim mistake? Weirdo so far has felt very big on hopping on wagons - surprised Weirdo did not for the RBM vote. Wolflean. Quivil and Weaver were not around, iirc. Kas says he saw Weaver lurking. In fact, Weaver did not post during the ENTIRE cycle. While this is probably NAI, this means, imo, they weren't active in doc - could be why RBM vote ended up happening. Weaver does have weak spew in Weaver's favour: C1 votes: On 5/6/2024 at 12:06 AM, DrakeMarshall said: Vote Tally TheRavenHasLanded (3): Archer, Kasimir, Kidpen Kidpen (2): Aeoryi, Aeternum Cash67 (2): TheRavenHasLanded, Wierdo Aeternum (1): Weaver of Lies RoyalBeeMage (1): The Unknown Ajah Spark of Hope (1): RoyalBeeMage Wierdo (1): Cash67 Now that we know RBM is elim, this makes me clear Spark/Quivil via: TL;DR RBM spew clears Spark. Spoiler ^ RBM on Spark vote ^ RBM votes Spark over WeaverDoes not vote again in the cycle. I don't find RBM to be the kind of elim to bus teammates, given the LG. iirc. Would not assume it unless he's being coached More spew that clears that slot: Also this in an e!Cash world: I would believe Aeo NK was likely due to Aeo's pressure on RBM. I can see e!RBM wanting to make a shot - this is implying newbie team in my mind. Weirdo is a whole different story. Dodgy and off topic in the threads, which could just be a newbie thing, but it also reminds me of when Aeo knew I was elim in the LG just based off of me being dodgy and off topic. I feel that v!Weirdo should have been more active in the game, at least a little, but I understand if it's just confusing and intimidating. Weaver was more active directly in the game than Weirdo. Something that's been really bothering me is TUA. I skimmed the LG again - I feel like TUA's playing differently enough in this game for me to give a VERY tentative town read. I desperately need second opinions on this from Quivil & Raven, my #3 and #1 townies. Also, I'd like to see opinions on Weaver. Still no Quivil today, and it's been half a cycle. I feel that Cash > TUA in terms of wolfiness rn. I AM PROBABLY TUNNELING sanity check me pls, but I have not liked Cash's posts. THIS really screams at me after the re-read: Spoiler 4 hours ago, Cash67 said: That would put the remaining elims as Spark/Quivil and TUA. I think I'm sure about TUA, but S/Q not so much. I haven't considered Wierdo for the past cycle and a half, so I might go reread them. But for now, I'm gonna stick with what I had last cycle cause it seems to hold up. TUA Cash's reasons to target TUA seem reasonable, but I feel like Cash has only focused on TUA and no one else - also avoided the RBM train yesterday. Thoughts on Weirdo, Cash? 4 hours ago, Cash67 said: So TUA is shying away from voting on RBM, Aet and Kas voted out an elim, and I was on TUA. It is possible that TUA was backing off of RBM in order to not vote for them, and RBM called out Aet and Weaver, making them look suspicious. It is also possible that RBM knew he was going down and tried to bring Aet and Weaver down with him post-humously. Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA? My elim team guess rn is Weirdo/Cash/RBM. (not voting because the wise one said to not) EDIT TL;DR: Town: Spark/Quivil (spew), Aet, TUA (ish), Weaver (weak spew) Elim: Weirdo, Cash Edited May 8, 2024 by Aeternum moved a line and un typo'd it
Cash67 Posted May 8, 2024 Posted May 8, 2024 2 hours ago, Aeternum said: Inability to just click ISO is slowly getting to me lol. C3 votes Did not vote: Weirdo, Quivil, Weaver Surprised that RBM's teammates did not vote another wagon to save RBM. Weirdo was around, yet did not vote - even after Cash and TUA had voted. Newbie elim mistake? Weirdo so far has felt very big on hopping on wagons - surprised Weirdo did not for the RBM vote. Wolflean. Quivil and Weaver were not around, iirc. Kas says he saw Weaver lurking. In fact, Weaver did not post during the ENTIRE cycle. While this is probably NAI, this means, imo, they weren't active in doc - could be why RBM vote ended up happening. Weaver does have weak spew in Weaver's favour: C1 votes: Now that we know RBM is elim, this makes me clear Spark/Quivil via: TL;DR RBM spew clears Spark. Hide contents ^ RBM on Spark vote ^ RBM votes Spark over WeaverDoes not vote again in the cycle. I don't find RBM to be the kind of elim to bus teammates, given the LG. iirc. Would not assume it unless he's being coached More spew that clears that slot: Also this in an e!Cash world: I would believe Aeo NK was likely due to Aeo's pressure on RBM. I can see e!RBM wanting to make a shot - this is implying newbie team in my mind. Weirdo is a whole different story. Dodgy and off topic in the threads, which could just be a newbie thing, but it also reminds me of when Aeo knew I was elim in the LG just based off of me being dodgy and off topic. I feel that v!Weirdo should have been more active in the game, at least a little, but I understand if it's just confusing and intimidating. Weaver was more active directly in the game than Weirdo. Something that's been really bothering me is TUA. I skimmed the LG again - I feel like TUA's playing differently enough in this game for me to give a VERY tentative town read. I desperately need second opinions on this from Quivil & Raven, my #3 and #1 townies. Also, I'd like to see opinions on Weaver. Still no Quivil today, and it's been half a cycle. I feel that Cash > TUA in terms of wolfiness rn. I AM PROBABLY TUNNELING sanity check me pls, but I have not liked Cash's posts. THIS really screams at me after the re-read: Reveal hidden contents Cash's reasons to target TUA seem reasonable, but I feel like Cash has only focused on TUA and no one else - also avoided the RBM train yesterday. Thoughts on Weirdo, Cash? Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA? My elim team guess rn is Weirdo/Cash/RBM. (not voting because the wise one said to not) EDIT TL;DR: Town: Spark/Quivil (spew), Aet, TUA (ish), Weaver (weak spew) Elim: Weirdo, Cash First thoughts without rereading are neutral negative vibes. This could be the afeormentioned grudge talking, but Wierdo's votes have felt a little rushed/instinctive. (The first being the knee-jerk vote on me). Give me some time to reread and I'll have more coherent thoughts.
Aeternum Posted May 8, 2024 Posted May 8, 2024 2 hours ago, Aeternum said: Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA? What about this ^ 5 minutes ago, Cash67 said: First thoughts without rereading are neutral negative vibes. This could be the afeormentioned grudge talking, but Wierdo's votes have felt a little rushed/instinctive. (The first being the knee-jerk vote on me). Give me some time to reread and I'll have more coherent thoughts. I'm confused why you're holding a grudge on the vote.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 It's quiet today, hm. The esteemed Returned and wisest Raven has told me: Cash
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 16 minutes ago, Aeternum said: It's quiet today, hm. The esteemed Returned and wisest Raven has told me: Cash Why Cash and not Wierdo?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: Why Cash and not Wierdo? A little birdy said so.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 9 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: Why Cash and not Wierdo? Mostly because I'm tentatively TRing TUA and gambling off of that. Actually I need to rethink this. I just had a new thought about lylo. Also, did you give a read list today?
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 9 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Mostly because I'm tentatively TRing TUA and gambling off of that. Actually I need to rethink this. I just had a new thought about lylo. Also, did you give a read list today? I did. You, village. Cash, unsure. Wierdo and TUA, most likely elims in my opinion.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 (edited) Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail: Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1. Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do). Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well. Pick your poison, ig. Edit: this is only on a ML. Ideally, we hit the elim today and win. Edited May 9, 2024 by Aeternum
Wierdo he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 2 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail: Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1. Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do). Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well. Pick your poison, ig. Yeah..
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 (edited) I didn't include a scenario if we lynch TUA, but I'd guess it would end like the Cash scenario, albeit a lower chance of best case because TUA gives me at least a little to work with for a TR. Votes today are 2 for Cash and one for TUA, right? Edit: yes I'm gambling off of TUA being a good guy this game lol Edit edit: this is when I need Kas lol Edited May 9, 2024 by Aeternum
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 20 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail: Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1. Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do). Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well. Pick your poison, ig. Edit: this is only on a ML. Ideally, we hit the elim today and win. Yeah…I’m not sure. I still find Wierdo more suspicious, but I could definitely be wrong.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: Yeah…I’m not sure. I still find Wierdo more suspicious, but I could definitely be wrong. What do you think about TUA and Cash's reasons for why the other is wolf? I really want to have more reasons to be confident that you're town lol
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Aeternum said: What do you think about TUA and Cash's reasons for why the other is wolf? I really want to have more reasons to be confident that you're town lol I don’t think I managed to catch all of it, I can go back and read through it in a bit. But from what I remember, they both have good points and I think I see a grudge between the two of them. It could be clouding their judgement and it’s definitely causing them to focus on pretty much just each other. I don’t think I can trust either of them right now. Edit: I’m leaning more towards cash being village, some of that due to Kas’s vote before Bee being on TUA. I know he said it wasn’t permanent, but I think it was telling in a way. Edited May 9, 2024 by Weaver of Lies 1
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 17 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: I don’t think I managed to catch all of it, I can go back and read through it in a bit. But from what I remember, they both have good points and I think I see a grudge between the two of them. It could be clouding their judgement and it’s definitely causing them to focus on pretty much just each other. I don’t think I can trust either of them right now. Edit: I’m leaning more towards cash being village, some of that due to Kas’s vote before Bee being on TUA. I know he said it wasn’t permanent, but I think it was telling in a way. Reasonable Thoughts on this interaction? I am desperate for opinions lol (+ The few posts)
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 5 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Reasonable Thoughts on this interaction? I am desperate for opinions lol (+ The few posts) This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 26 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus. Yeah I agree with that. @The Unknown Ajah I saw you lurking - what was your opinion on this as well?
Cash67 Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 3 hours ago, Aeternum said: What about this ^ I'm confused why you're holding a grudge on the vote. Not holding a grudge per say, but considering that was the first interaction for this game, I might be conformation biasing. Like this post makes me think along the same lines as Weaver, because it is something e!Cash might do. But also once again the first knee jerk reaction vote kinda makes me split between new villager copying action versus elim trying to stir the pot early game. 33 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: This is one of the posts that makes me most suspicious. He says he doesn’t have focus…sounds like an Elim. Then he says a joke type statement to redirect focus. 1 hour ago, Aeternum said: Correct me if I'm wrong or missed a detail: Let's say we lynch Weirdo today and it's wrong. Then Weaver, Quivil, TUA, and Cash go to lylo. TUA and Cash are almost 100% going to vote each other, and idk about Quivil's activity, but Weaver is likely the other elim to either Cash or TUA. Super best case: a mafia doesn't vote lol and Town votes together (very unlikely). Best case: Assumedly Quivil would have to vote for a tie then it's 50/50 ig. Worst case: Quivil doesn't vote OR a townie tips the vote 3-1. Let's say we lynch Cash and it's wrong. Now we've got Quivil, TUA, Weirdo, and Weaver at lylo. This means most likely, TUA will sway the vote - we'd be gambling on him being town and forcing a 50/50 because mafia will vote together. Best case: A mafia doesn't vote (could be possible if Quivil is maf, but spew says town) & both townies vote together (very unlikely). Second best: Town votes together against mafia. 50/50 coin flip. Worst case: TUA sways a vote to ML OR a townie doesn't vote (assuming both maf do). Lylo basically ends 50/50 best case scenario almost no matter what because the mafia will vote together and we just need the town to as well. Pick your poison, ig. Edit: this is only on a ML. Ideally, we hit the elim today and win. Yeah if we are wrong it is a 50/50 shot.
Weaver of Shadows he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 Wierdo It’ll take a fair amount of convincing to change that.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 9 minutes ago, Aeternum said: Yeah I agree with that. @The Unknown Ajah I saw you lurking - what was your opinion on this as well? I mean, I was fully willing to commit to a Cash/Wierdo team a second ago, so my opinions on him aren't great. That post is pretty eh. Could go either way for a low active newbie.
Aeternum Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 6 minutes ago, Cash67 said: Not holding a grudge per say, but considering that was the first interaction for this game, I might be conformation biasing. Like this post makes me think along the same lines as Weaver, because it is something e!Cash might do. But also once again the first knee jerk reaction vote kinda makes me split between new villager copying action versus elim trying to stir the pot early game. Yeah if we are wrong it is a 50/50 shot. Alright Also can you answer: Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA? please? *bribes you with large amounts of salmon* 6 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said: Wierdo It’ll take a fair amount of convincing to change that. Now dying in the hill (perhaps literally) that Weaver and Weirdo aren't paired. 4 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said: I mean, I was fully willing to commit to a Cash/Wierdo team a second ago, so my opinions on him aren't great. That post is pretty eh. Could go either way for a low active newbie. Did something happen to that idea?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted May 9, 2024 Posted May 9, 2024 (edited) 1 minute ago, Aeternum said: Alright Also can you answer: Why not vote RBM? Why stay on TUA? please? *bribes you with large amounts of salmon* Now dying in the hill (perhaps literally) that Weaver and Weirdo aren't paired. Did something happen to that idea? I thought this: 8 hours ago, Cash67 said: WRONG THREAD WIERDO GOSH DANG IT. was an elim slip. Apparently it's related to something else. Edited May 9, 2024 by The Unknown Ajah
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