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Posted
6 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

That's a bet I'm willing to make, though that does mean we lose if Cash somehow isn't a hit.

It is actually the point where, if the village executes a villager, they will lose. So not quite when numbers are equal. Another important characteristic is that, typically (it's weird in this game), every cycle after exlo/lylo is also lylo, meaning if the village misses just once, we lose.

thank you for the correction. 

Your wisdom and help will be remembered.

Posted

O wise one, your fathomless knowledge was correct, as always.

RIP Kas, #2 townie

It was keeping me up last night, but I totally forgot to mention Weirdo in my last post yesterday. That's what I get for not sleeping.

So - it's 4v2 right now I believe, but we only need to vote out one elim. I probably suck at mechanics, so if someone feels like spelling it out better, pls do.

Two things can happen today:

1) ML + NK puts us at 2v2 tho which I'm assuming means lylo - tomorrow we have to hit an elim, and then we win. 2v2 sounds scary so how about we just:

2) Kill an elim today, and we win because they're a 1 for 2 deal.

Either way, hitting 1/2 elims is all we need to do.

No vote from Quivil, Weirdo, or Weaver. I'm inclined to hold this against Weaver the most out of the three.

@Quivil Hope you're caught up on the game now - I need to hear some thoughts from you

@Weaver of Lies Why no vote yesterday? What's your reads atm?

@Wierdo Any new opinions?

What I'm most concerned about is my inability to read TUA lol.

7 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I suspect I die this turn, but at least it's not exlo anymore. I can afford to go.

Unless you guys are willing to vote Cash. Reasons to come tomorrow. 

^ Idk how I feel about this. I'd like to hear reasons ngl.

Posted

aLRIGHT how did people interact with Bee last cycle?

First up we have TUA, halfway defending them. Mainly they said that RBM isn't the best place to look for now. 

Aet is for voting weaver more strongly than TUA. This helps my town read on them. 

RBM did call out Aet and Weaver for being suspicious... kind of solidifies Aet in my eyes and moves Weaver a little higher up on the town list. 

Kas kept bee as  neutral initially. 

Aet doesn't want to vote bee yet because of lack of analysis of everyone else.

Our glorious returned has stated that RBM must die

Assuming I understand acronyms, Kas puts me and Bee on opposite sides of the coin. 

Beyond that it was me, Kas, and Aet debating about TUA. 

So TUA is shying away from voting on RBM, Aet and Kas voted out an elim, and I was on TUA. It is possible that TUA was backing off of RBM in order to not vote for them, and RBM called out Aet and Weaver, making them look suspicious. It is also possible that RBM knew he was going down and tried to bring Aet and Weaver down with him post-humously. 

That would put the remaining elims as Spark/Quivil and TUA. I think I'm sure about TUA, but S/Q not so much. I haven't considered Wierdo for the past cycle and a half, so I might go reread them. But for now, I'm gonna stick with what I had last cycle cause it seems to hold up. TUA

 

Posted
45 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said:

i propose something: No lynch.

or, we could let a coinflip decide who dies today: Cash, or TUA. that would be interesting...

@Aeternum my pm merged.

Option one potentially allows elims to win next round. We know there are at least two left, but since elims need to outnumber the villiage, not just match, if there are still three, they win next round if we don't linch or ML (which I assume means misflip V). 

The coinflip is funny, and in a different cycle I'd be down. However, if we are wrong, then we lose. Though if the coinflip does happen, who am I to go against RNJesus?

Posted
1 minute ago, Cash67 said:

who am I to go against RNJesus?

Praise RNJesus. for he hath caused many smash bros players suffering with thwack, and alas, for he hath cursed, and he hath blessed.

Posted

Quick thoughts:

- TUA looks bad for borderline defending RBM

- RBM spew likely clears Weaver but I'd have to go back and check 

- I need townies to start speaking up

- Weirdo is staying on my elim list

- I think yesterday I said RBM/Cash could be paired, esp. if RBM flips elim.

- TUA/Cash are likely not e/e, but that's not too important when killing one elim wins the game for us.

I will be back later for a further analysis and a reread of yesterday.

4 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Option one potentially allows elims to win next round. We know there are at least two left, but since elims need to outnumber the villiage, not just match, if there are still three, they win next round if we don't linch or ML (which I assume means misflip V). 

The coinflip is funny, and in a different cycle I'd be down. However, if we are wrong, then we lose. Though if the coinflip does happen, who am I to go against RNJesus?

Are you assuming there is 4 elims? That's like a third of the players if so.

How does 2v2 work?

Posted
Just now, Aeternum said:

TUA looks bad for borderline defending RBM

I mean, I did nearly get RBM exed d1 (Kas showed extreme willingness to shift, and Kidpen was kind of sheeping). I had set RBM aside because I was mostly looking at their e/e connections with v!Archer.

Posted
2 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

I mean, I did nearly get RBM exed d1 (Kas showed extreme willingness to shift, and Kidpen was kind of sheeping). I had set RBM aside because I was mostly looking at their e/e connections with v!Archer.

Can I ask you for a quick read on everyone?

Posted
11 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

Praise RNJesus. for he hath caused many smash bros players suffering with thwack, and alas, for he hath cursed, and he hath blessed.

 

7 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Hmph. Heretics.

The gods of Luck and Chance remain supreme. 

Who is RNJesus but the highest god of Chance?

6 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Quick thoughts:

- TUA looks bad for borderline defending RBM

- RBM spew likely clears Weaver but I'd have to go back and check 

- I need townies to start speaking up

- Weirdo is staying on my elim list

- I think yesterday I said RBM/Cash could be paired, esp. if RBM flips elim.

- TUA/Cash are likely not e/e, but that's not too important when killing one elim wins the game for us.

I will be back later for a further analysis and a reread of yesterday.

Are you assuming there is 4 elims? That's like a third of the players if so.

How does 2v2 work?

I think a 2v2 still has a day phase. The elims would not outnumber the village, so that would be the final vote. once it gets down to a 1v2 or 2v1 the game is decided. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Cash67 said:

 

Who is RNJesus but the highest god of Chance?

I think a 2v2 still has a day phase. The elims would not outnumber the village, so that would be the final vote. once it gets down to a 1v2 or 2v1 the game is decided. 

My concern is - wouldn't elims just vote together? They'd only need to sway one townie and I think if we do go to 2v2, town is going to have a problem because assuming we lynch Cash/TUA, and I wouldn't be surprised if I get NK'd, then we'll have likely one elim from Cash/TUA, plus their teamie, vs two quiet townies. I don't trust that town can win that.

Lylo tomorrow could be a problem, so it's important we hit the target today.

Posted
Just now, Aeternum said:

My concern is - wouldn't elims just vote together? They'd only need to sway one townie and I think if we do go to 2v2, town is going to have a problem because assuming we lynch Cash/TUA, and I wouldn't be surprised if I get NK'd, then we'll have likely one elim from Cash/TUA, plus their teamie, vs two quiet townies. I don't trust that town can win that.

Lylo tomorrow could be a problem, so it's important we hit the target today.

Yeah that's the problem. a 2v2 forces a tie vote, potentially a 3-1 vote split on V. So today we need to get an elim out, hence why I am voting TUA. I've gone over why I think they are one of the elims before. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Yeah that's the problem. a 2v2 forces a tie vote, potentially a 3-1 vote split on V. So today we need to get an elim out, hence why I am voting TUA. I've gone over why I think they are one of the elims before. 

Vote elim = yay we win

Vote town = oh no lylo

Let's hit the mark today.

I'm stuck on an elim being in Cash/TUA rn, and I'm worried I'm overlooking other people. I'll be doing a full check later when I've got more time.

I have not rlly heard from TUA on why Cash is elim.

Where is Kas when I need him 😔

Posted
9 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Can I ask you for a quick read on everyone?

Aeternum: I'm seeing some connections between them and Cash, my highest suspect, but I can't reasonably believe an elim busses RBM like that.

Cash: Pretty strong e/e connections with e!RBM. Most common denominator teammate with any other person. Is heavily pushing me which is actually imperically tested to be an elim tell. I'm not kidding on that btw. Probably don't need to explain that right now but it is a thing that has worked in the past.

Quivil/Spark: I've got nothing. Spark was too new and too inactive to tone read. Quivil hasn't quite shown up yet. Decent third teammate option. 

Weaver: Also nothing. Could be a third teammate maybe, but they’re kind of a blackhole. 

Wierdo: I think I remember slightly better vibes here, but they have even less content than the others so I very well could be misremembering.

Posted
36 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

@Wierdo since you're lurking, can I hear your reads on everyone?

 

Oh, i just got back- sorry i left my Chromebook on lol

Posted
2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Tis ok!

@Weaver of Lies I see you lurking too. Same question, would like to hear your reads.

I think you’re not Elim. I’m not sure about Cash, and Wierdo and TUA seem suspicious to me. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

I think you’re not Elim. I’m not sure about Cash, and Wierdo and TUA seem suspicious to me. 

May i ask how i'm suspicious? i can kinda see it- but further elaboration?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

May i ask how i'm suspicious? i can kinda see it- but further elaboration?

I know you say you don’t have a lot of time, but I also know that can be easily…exaggerated. It seems like an excuse to me. And I haven’t seen anything to make me remotely think you’re a priest.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Weaver of Lies said:

I know you say you don’t have a lot of time, but I also know that can be easily…exaggerated. It seems like an excuse to me. And I haven’t seen anything to make me remotely think you’re a priest.

I mean, i've been kinda using it as an excuse for my brain not being focused in the game- wait pfft- I lost the game- and huh. i realize now I was kinda hostile with voting lol

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

I mean, i've been kinda using it as an excuse for my brain not being focused in the game- wait pfft- I lost the game- and huh. i realize now I was kinda hostile with voting lol

WRONG THREAD WIERDO GOSH DANG IT. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

...

Welp

You probably could have played that one off, but you just made our lives easier. 

That's the flaw of newbie teams.

played what off? I was just being honest

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