Quick Fix Game 70: Infernal Affairs

[Stick.]

@neil the beguiled Aman/drake have no reason to coordinate hammer last cycle if Aman was a villager there lol. You’ll notice that Aman voted me over Drake when Drake became a real option for the exe. And that Aman didn’t really self pres on Drake until the literal last second because they were coordinating hammer in the doc. My last post of C1 talks about this. But anyway I was kinda outed as a villager in the doc because I hadn’t been using my NK vote in a +ev way for the elims. If I NK voted Drake like they wanted me to, Aman technically could’ve self voted for a 3-way tie (and since ties in the NK vote kill all parties involved, all 3 of us would have died and the Insider simply would have killed the Contact next cycle). 

 

Anyway I’ll just repeat that I think neil is a villager still 

 

Sart

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, Stick. said:

@neil the beguiled Aman/drake have no reason to coordinate hammer last cycle if Aman was a villager there lol. You’ll notice that Aman voted me over Drake when Drake became a real option for the exe. And that Aman didn’t really self pres on Drake until the literal last second because they were coordinating hammer in the doc. My last post of C1 talks about this. But anyway I was kinda outed as a villager in the doc because I hadn’t been using my NK vote in a +ev way for the elims. If I NK voted Drake like they wanted me to, Aman technically could’ve self voted for a 3-way tie (and since ties in the NK vote kill all parties involved, all 3 of us would have died and the Insider simply would have killed the Contact next cycle). 

 

Anyway I’ll just repeat that I think neil is a villager still 

 

Sart

1. Why does E!Aman pres on Drake though? Both of them pressed on Drake, why not pres on Aman who was dying anyway?

2. Why Sart over Neil or Faerie?

[Stick.]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

1. Why does E!Aman pres on Drake though? Both of them pressed on Drake, why not pres on Aman who was dying anyway?

2. Why Sart over Neil or Faerie?

If both Aman and Drake died yesterday then we only get 2 shots to find the insider.
My NK vote wasn’t actually on Aman until like the ??? last 15 mins of the cycle because I thought we could exe drake, NK some non-Contact villager and keep Aman alive in the doc. I voted Aman (edit: for the NK) when it looked like no one was really voting Drake. Then the Drake wagon got larger and I banked everything on securing those 2 shots and my brain broke when Sart suggested we just kill Aman (the NK was already on him) and it took me a second to compute that would essentially be the same as NKing a villager and exeing Drake and is better than killing both elims. 
 

Sart over Neil because I feel neil is a villager. Dont really have anything against voting Faerie

Edited February 11 by Stick.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Stick. said:

If both Aman and Drake died yesterday then we only get 2 shots to find the insider.
My NK vote wasn’t actually on Aman until like the ??? last 15 mins of the cycle because I thought we could exe drake, NK some non-Contact villager and keep Aman alive in the doc. I voted Aman (edit: for the NK) when it looked like no one was really voting Drake. Then the Drake wagon got larger and I banked everything on securing those 2 shots and my brain broke when Sart suggested we just kill Aman (the NK was already on him) and it took me a second to compute that would essentially be the same as NKing a villager and exeing Drake and is better than killing both elims. 
 

Sart over Neil because I feel neil is a villager. Dont really have anything against voting Faerie

But you claimed to have doubletapped Aman early because Aman made the mistake of vote locking. So how does that match...?

[Stick.]

That was a lie obviously lol. I needed to make Aman believe I was an elim with him and that Drake was the villager. I needed to give the thread a reason to vote Drake over Aman.

And me immediately hammering the NK vote on Aman would’ve been outing to the doc and not a good play. 

Edit:
 

See this is why the Informant role is rly hard and complicated lol you have to work to appease both sides it’s kinda impossible 

Edit:

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

and you lied about locking your NK vote smh you are very dishonest

i on the other hand have been very forthright with the village

I’ll also point out that if I were elim with Drake he pretty much never reveals this ^ If we’re on a team together it makes no sense to post this 

[Kasimir]

31 minutes ago, Stick. said:

That was a lie obviously lol. I needed to make Aman believe I was an elim with him and that Drake was the villager. I needed to give the thread a reason to vote Drake over Aman.

So...how does Aman believe you are an Elim with him exactly...?

Look sis can you do me a favour and walk me through exactly what happened from your point of view in the doc and in the thread, because some things don't add up and while it's certifiably insane for me to question you seeing as Drake has already claimed Elim my mind just cannot let go of the nonsense and wants to know why

33 minutes ago, Stick. said:

See this is why the Informant role is rly hard and complicated lol you have to work to appease both sides it’s kinda impossible 

I believe my reaction to TJ when describing my plans for each role was: "If I'm the Informant, cry ig because wtf is my life even."

48 minutes ago, Stick. said:

and my brain broke when Sart suggested we just kill Aman (the NK was already on him) and it took me a second to compute that would essentially be the same as NKing a villager and exeing Drake and is better than killing both elims.

Does this not make you believe V!Sart? I ask as I kind of want people to challenge me on this. I can't let go of the fact I think I've sighted Sart's E!tell but I'm also used to more people disagreeing with me on reading Sart and I'm concerned I'm wrong about Sart.

Edited to add:

Btw, TJ mentioned he's gonna be away for most of the cycle, so anyone who wants an updated tally of the votes should remember to use Tallybot, which Drake has already conveniently updated, thank you murderpuppy for helping the Village  

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

So...how does Aman believe you are an Elim with him exactly...?

He thought Drake village slipped in the doc and was leaning informant on him /shrug. Aman’s entire “I’m going claim informant” thing was planned in the doc and he asked me to help exe Drake.

Re:Sart, it kinda did make me think v!Sart yesterday, yeah.  But the insider needs to play in a way that gets them village cred and if Sart continued voting outside the informant claims it would’ve reflected badly on him. Also I know you’ve got a decent read on Sart and am willing to sheep that. Like I said earlier idm moving to Faerie either 

[RoyalBeeMage]

Ok now I’m very confused. Any one able to explain the current theory 

[Kasimir]

Just now, Stick. said:

He thought Drake village slipped in the doc and was leaning informant on him /shrug. Aman’s entire “I’m going claim informant” thing was planned in the doc and he asked me to help exe Drake.

Re:Sart, it kinda did make me think v!Sart yesterday, yeah.  But the insider needs to play in a way that gets them village cred and if Sart continued voting outside the informant claims it would’ve reflected badly on him. Also I know you’ve got a decent read on Sart and am willing to sheep that. Like I said earlier idm moving to Faerie either 

I actually fully am willing to believe I!you because I see hints of Drake's E!meta lmao, but at the same time, the ??? just makes me feel HMM. I feel like I should just let go of the desire for everything to make sense and go with the flow

Do you feel Faerie's continued inability to realise that the Insider flips V and the Informant flips E is AI? 

Moreover, what's your view on Sart's plan? I agree it's a future problem, but I do feel the Village has a fairly robust decision-tree with regard to deciding at what point we think things are clean enough to go shoot Drake.

I'm concerned about your willingness to sheep my Sart read because I don't see it as being stronger than a 'just trust me bro.'

Is there something that would change your mind on V!Neil?

Finally, I suppose I'd ask: is there any indication you can give us on what the vote state in the Elim doc is rn? My sense is both of you shooting outside the doc might work because if one of you hits the Insider, then we can simply just vote the Insider and call it a day. Outside votes should trump inside votes IIRC.

A lot of these tbh are not suspicion questions, they're just 'help I need someone in the thread to talk to' questions.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

Ok now I’m very confused. Any one able to explain the current theory 

What, specifically, are you struggling with?

[RoyalBeeMage]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

What, specifically, are you struggling with?

Who is accusing who and why

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

Who is accusing who and why

1. Drake has claimed to be an outed Elim, and Stick is the Informant, i.e. on our side. We can't vote them, because if we vote Drake, the last Elim gets the NK, and we lose the game in two cycles, which can be a bit tight.

2. 

Quote

neil the beguiled (4): Aeoryi, DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids, Sart
Sart (2): Kasimir, Stick.
Aeoryi (1): JNV
Faerie Braids (1): neil the beguiled

These guys are all voting Neil.

Aeo declined to offer reasons. Sart thinks Neil was lurking at EoD last cycle. Faerie thinks voting Neil will be informative. Drake is Evil so I dgaf about his reasons, but will note his willingness to vote Neil is unlikely to be a good sign, though Drake excels at mindgames.

I am voting Sart because I think I have noticed Sart's E!tell appear in his play. Stick is voting Sart because she's willing to go with my read of Sart.

JNV is being JNV.

Neil is countervoting Faerie.

To recap, we are trying to find the Insider (last Elim). Our problem is the Insider will flip Village so this boils down to just voting the person who looks most Evil right now.

Edited February 11 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

Ok now I’m very confused. Any one able to explain the current theory 

The current plan is that we have to find the elim Insider (this is the Elim who does not have access to the doc but possesses the village Contact’s identity). This player is confirmed to be outside of Drake and myself. 
 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Do you feel Faerie's continued inability to realise that the Insider flips V and the Informant flips E is AI? 

I haven’t had the chance to actually properly read their posts lol last cycle was a mess between dealing with the doc (33 pages) chaos and the thread chaos. I’ll get back to you on this. 

 

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there something that would change your mind on V!Neil?

Yeah I’m keeping my eye on it, let’s see

 

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Finally, I suppose I'd ask: is there any indication you can give us on what the vote state in the Elim doc is rn? My sense is both of you shooting outside the doc might work because if one of you hits the Insider, then we can simply just vote the Insider and call it a day. Outside votes should trump inside votes IIRC.

Both of us will be NK voting for people outside the doc (because if one of us votes a person inside the doc and the other votes a person outside the doc, the latter gets prioritised) for a 50/50 coin flip. I’ll be Nk voting someone who I think has good Insider equity and I assume Drake will be NK voting someone he thinks has good Contact equity. Alternatively I could NK vote today’s exe to bring us back to even numbers. 

[RoyalBeeMage]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

am voting Sart because I think I have noticed Sart's E!tell appear in his play. Stick is voting Sart because she's willing to go with my read of Sart.

Care to give more detai on this?

[Kasimir]

Just now, Stick. said:

Both of us will be NK voting for people outside the doc (because if one of us votes a person inside the doc and the other votes a person outside the doc, the latter gets prioritised) for a 50/50 coin flip. I’ll be Nk voting someone who I think has good Insider equity and I assume Drake will be NK voting someone he thinks has good Contact equity. Alternatively I could NK vote today’s exe to bring us back to even numbers. 

I leave it to your best judgement. As much as I am doing I suppose a better job of masking than I am last cycle, depressed!Kas brain is not in the mood for high-octane strategic stuff, even if solving is a good distraction.

Just now, RoyalBeeMage said:

Care to give more detai on this?

I've said as much in the thread: it's a highly subjective thing but unfailingly, when I vibe with Sart and he seems logical, he's usually Evil. For whatever the reason, I always think V!him is insane and has off-the-wall takes. It's how I've found E!him and V!him in multiple past games. I can link them if you like, but it's not helpful to you unless you think I am Village as well.

[RoyalBeeMage]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I leave it to your best judgement. As much as I am doing I suppose a better job of masking than I am last cycle, depressed!Kas brain is not in the mood for high-octane strategic stuff, even if solving is a good distraction.

I've said as much in the thread: it's a highly subjective thing but unfailingly, when I vibe with Sart and he seems logical, he's usually Evil. For whatever the reason, I always think V!him is insane and has off-the-wall takes. It's how I've found E!him and V!him in multiple past games. I can link them if you like, but it's not helpful to you unless you think I am Village as well.

Ok I get your point. For now sart 

[Kasimir]

Edited to add:

I suppose if you want me to add a few extra considerations:

-I don't fully like my reaction to Sart because I kind of feel it's grotesque to vote for a player I'm mostly vibing with.
-I do think Sart's emphasis on wanting to know for sure we've won doesn't fully make sense to me, and I feel that pushing for certainty tends to emerge from an Elim perspective.
-I also do feel Sart looked Village from the last EoD, if I bracket my reaction to him.

5 hours ago, Sart said:

The reason why I want to get this down to Drake vs Stick is simple. I don't want to guess when we've killed the Insider. I want to know for certain we've won.

I can sympathise with this, but I feel there's a point where the cycles to loss (i.e. margin for error) balances out without requiring us to gun our way through the entire Village. Sart's never replied either with regard to Drake's challenge about how we can manage player numbers sufficiently.

Cards on the table: if we can guarantee an endgame where it's Stick v Drake, it really doesn't matter which of the two of them is Evil. Village wins.

The big problem is that it's a big if - as Drake points out, there are things he and the Insider can do to screw with this path to victory. They know they lose if we can get this endgame, so of course they will fight us for it.

@RoyalBeeMage 

This is really the best extra thoughts I can give you, I think.

@Stick. - Sudden thought. Is it worth trying to double on the exe target on your end? This guarantees that in any cycle where the kill is missing, we know whether the flipped player was a Villager or not.

Edited to add 2:

Sorry not quite, but we know that it's in a set of two: the dead player, or whoever Drake targeted, which is a nice set to have.

Edited February 11 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

@Faerie Braids I’d like to hear what gambit you were considering : > 
 

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sudden thought. Is it worth trying to double on the exe target on your end? This guarantees that in any cycle where the kill is missing, we know whether the flipped player was a Villager or not.

Edited to add 2:

Sorry not quite, but we know that it's in a set of two: the dead player, or whoever Drake targeted, which is a nice set to have.

Yeah I’m thinking it’s best I vote the exe target

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

Yeah I’m thinking it’s best I vote the exe target

Well, I guess trade-offs right?

Both of you voting in the PoE (bracketing the fact one of you will be Contact hunting) basically looks like a pool of two but it's actually a pool of one because we can't conclude anything about the player who didn't flip.

You voting the exe target means that mininally we get an effective flip, and otherwise, a pool of two which has one effective dead member. (I am mostly thinking aloud, but also, if I'm missing something here...)

Edited to add:

I'll add I think it's worthwhile knowing if the dead player was a Villager because it enables better vote analysis than conditional analysis - which can be done or is a pain.

P.S. If I'm dead, I'd request people to look at JNV's other two reads and reasoning with MR67 lenses in mind. I don't particularly V read them as of this point - they're just a null for me due to CNY confounding factors, which I think makes it harder to get any solid inactivity clear for them.

Edited to add 2:

7 hours ago, Sart said:

Drake is unfortunately right that we have an odd number of players. In the extremely rare case in which the Insider is the last person outside of the doc, then the Insider and Drake could vote out Stick, and then win the game. Hence, 8 chances. I will also note that since the Elim kill doesn't function on the Insider, we could use that as a scan. Of course, Drake would be submitting a different order than Stick, but it would narrow down the options to just 2 players if someone doesn't die.

Uggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh

I really really fing hate this.

I am mindmelding with Sart so hard I should be willing to think he is Village but I have never mindmelded with V!Sart! I have always thought he is absolutely utterly batcrem kayana!

Why am I mindmelding with Sart wtaf is going on here

Edited to add 3:

@neil the beguiled: What's your Alv read? I ask specifically in light of your D1 comment you and Alv are not E/E.

@Aeoryi: Motivation behind early Faerie naked vote D1?

@Faerie Braids: Motivation behind early Alv naked vote D1?

@RoyalBeeMage: Motivation behind early Faerie naked vote D1? Also, why did you ask Stick what her read of you was?

I'm currently going through D1 again and chasing down a theory. 

@Alvron Possible to solicit your general thoughts?

Edited February 11 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

That is a really sad e!tell ngl but . . .  

[Kasimir]

40 minutes ago, Stick. said:

That is a really sad e!tell ngl but . . .  

I guess to precisify: by kayana, I feel that V!Sart and I have typically orthogonal or radically differing views of the gamestate, to the point I question if we are playing the same game. It’s a very visceral read of "wtaf where is this coming from." With E!Sart, I tend to really vibe or get what he's saying, and our gamestate views converge.

Anyway. Do you think it's worth uttering a theory I have about the identity of the Insider? This ignores my Sart read and comes at the issue from a different angle. My main concern here is it might be used to unmask the Contact as well but you and Drake are sharp enough I really don't see this as being a significant trade-off but IDK.

Again I just need someone to think with sry

[Stick.]

lol um i was actually also thinking about something similar but didnt post it because the same logic can be used to find the contact LOL

EDIT:

So ig i wanna go for conventional elim hunting i think, it's safer 

[TheRavenHasLanded]

WHAT HAPPENED WHILE I WAS GONE GOODNESS-

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Stick. said:

lol um i was actually also thinking about something similar but didnt post it because the same logic can be used to find the contact LOL

EDIT:

So ig i wanna go for conventional elim hunting i think, it's safer 

lmao. I guess I'll GM PM it then as I did the charts and analysis  

I think from raw profiling, there are two sets of Insider candidates:

1. <Neil, Faerie>
2. <Aeo, Sart>

I currently lean against JNV, Royal, and Raven as Insiders for various reasons, which are not necessarily strong but are informing my views for this cycle. 

Lurker theory pre-supposes Insider behaviour, but in retrospect, I don't find it particularly or necessarily compelling as a response to the (fairly) unexpected/unprecedented triple Elim reveal.

So maybe the better approach is to treat it as an approximate reaction test and to look for outliers. There's an asterisk here because the Insider isn't with that sort of TMI, but given the Insider's wincon, they should probably be mildly invested in the outcome.

Summary:

Quote

[Compliant] - Royal
[Silence] - Aeo
[NOPE] - Faerie
[Circling-Vote] - Neil
[Engagement] - Sart
[Nothing] - Kas, JNV, Alv, Raven

Nope. Not very useful. I guess there's going a bit more in depth?

[Compliant] - Royal votes Drake on being asked to, citing annoyance with multiple posts.

(I am leaning against this as Insider behaviour, and indeed, think the Insider would probably be more invested in working out what's going on. But it's worth noting both Aman and Stick had voted Drake at that point, meaning it's a vote an Insider should theoretically feel comfortable with, if packaged well. But usually-perception-focused Royal just...dgaf about the optics of this vote!

Quote

DrakeMarshall (3): Amanuensis, RoyalBeeMage, Stick.
Stick. (2): DrakeMarshall, TheRavenHasLanded
Amanuensis (2): Faerie Braids, Kasimir
Faerie Braids (2): Aeoryi, neil the beguiled

Joining...two Elims on a third...without question? There's definitely the chance it's a higher level play, and I'm looking at the wrong layer, but for the moment, I like this look.)

[Silence] - Aeo has exactly one post, and ignores the rest of the chaos. This is it.

She does ask Aman about who his teammates are, so there's some interest. But she also doesn't do much else, which I find notable for a player who usually is way too noisy when there's chaos (there's probably a better way of phrasing this, bite me. I just mean that Aeo usually likes to be where the chaos is.) And she notably declines to shift her vote as well despite seeming to engage with the problem.

[NOPE] - Faerie doesn't want to engage with the issue and explicitly peaces out, wanting more information.

(I question, to a lesser extent, Faerie not wanting to get involved. I think it's possible E!Faerie sits this one out and figures the two Elims in the doc should solve this, but... I do wonder. I also do wonder if Faerie consistently missing that the Insider and the Informant don't flip normally is AI - I might weakly V!lean this.)

Worth noting Drake engages with Faerie to remind her about the flips. Faerie doesn't respond. (Faerie - would this have changed your view on the end of C1?)

[Circling-Vote] - Neil sort of stays there and observes and ???s a bit, but engages with Stick when she asks him to vote for Drake over Aman, before voting Drake.

I differentiate this from the other responses because Neil doesn't just vote immediately like Royal does, and doesn't overengage the way Sart does. He just kind of sits in a corner and mulls a bit, asks a few questions, apparently rethinks Aman, but ultimately votes Drake. 

Worth noting Neil moves off Faerie and onto Drake:

Quote

DrakeMarshall (3): RoyalBeeMage, Stick., neil the beguiled
Stick. (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, TheRavenHasLanded
Amanuensis (2): Faerie Braids, Kasimir
Faerie Braids (1): Aeoryi

This has the effect of tying Drake and Stick, and also bringing Drake into contention. (If you think Neil didn't notice Aman's Stick vote due to only three minutes between the posts, then effectively, Neil thinks the vc is:

Quote

DrakeMarshall (4): Aman, RoyalBeeMage, Stick., neil the beguiled
Stick. (2): DrakeMarshall, TheRavenHasLanded
Amanuensis (2): Faerie Braids, Kasimir
Faerie Braids (1): Aeoryi

Which is Neil being willing to stack onto a train with Aman and Stick on it.)

[ENGAGEMENT] - Sart engages with the specifics of the claim, trying to work out what is going on, and then plans a Village course ahead.

Sigh. Again, I'm torn. Because I personally feel that Sart's D1 feels Village and I would not hesitate to deem it Village...if it were any player other than Sart. (Note to self: re-read LG88.)

Then again, I think on a closer look, a lot of it does feel like make-work rather than necessarily solving. Let's look at what Sart says:

1. This first post is a commentary post, which basically contends that our situation isn't great, and then suspects that the situation is a gambit.

This is...an interesting response. Because I feel like Sart is the first player in the mass of reactions to suggest that a gambit might be happening. I don't fully think that's necessarily a thought anyone has articulated up to that point. It feels a little significant compared to what everyone else thinks. (Keep in mind that apparently-gambit-minded Faerie hasn't even suggested this!)

2. Sart asks Aman about the votestate in the doc.

3. Points out inconsistency in Aman's and Drake's reported vcs.

4. Asks Aman how the Village wins if he is the dying Informant. I think this is a fair question as it's normally not in the Informant's interest to claim. I like this post.

5. Asks Stick for the vc and claims Stick should've claimed normal Villager. I vibe with this sass tbh.

6. Sart returns to ask about the Informant v Insider NK situation. No further cogitation on the Aman/Stick/Drake situation. I'd like to V!read this as the Informant should theoretically know this, but IDK.

7. Sart suggesting the Village try to hit the Insider. Subsequent realisation a tied 

Honestly these two posts feel organic to me in development. SIGH. I really hate this. I really really hate this can I just ignore my sense there's a tell because I cannot. I cannot freakin' stand this. Ahhhhhhhhhhh

He also makes a small slip here:

@Stick. HELP.

15 hours ago, Sart said:

In my view, letting the Elim doc go to one member is a losing proposition for the Village. Letting the Elim doc have two members? Now that's a winning proposition. I can almost imagine the paranoia. Sure, Aman might have been the Informant. But what if you're wrong? The doc would just be Stick and Drake getting to unhealthy levels of suspicion. They couldn't kill themselves, because that would give the Informant complete control.

Wait no. Tied votes kill both if it's inside the doc. Then the Informant gets the kill, and wins. This game always ends on Cycle 3. I'm mad at myself for approving this game, this doesn't seem fair.

He seems to mistake the Informant for the Insider at some point. The first highlighted sentence in particular is weird because Stick and Drake killing themselves doesn't give the Informant complete control - Sart's already clarified this previously by asking who wins in a tussle between the Insider and the Informant. (#6)

Part of me feels that Insider!Sart is less likely to make this kind of slip between the Informant and the Insider. Part of me feels that E!Sart is more likely to be concerned about the Informant.

(Stick catches this, tbf.)

8. I feel like Insider!Sart here should be more cavalier about finding an excuse to vote Drake, because that's the winning recipe for him to get the kill. I really don't E!read this move.

15 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Amanuensis (2): Kasimir, Faerie Braids
Stick (3): TheRavenHasLanded, Amanuensis, Drake
Drake (3): RoyalBeeMage, neil the beguiled, Stick
Faerie Braids (2): Aeoryi, Sart

Sure, Insider!Sart could be trying to get Contact!Faerie killed, but having seen no takers, his next winning move is Drake. Recall: Aman dies, Drake dies, Sart gets the kill, and then kills Faerie. Stick has not seen this flaw yet. Yet, he explicitly repudiates this to go:

15 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Amanuensis (3): Kasimir, Faerie Braids, Sart
Stick (3): TheRavenHasLanded, Amanuensis, Drake
Drake (3): RoyalBeeMage, neil the beguiled, Stick
Faerie Braids (1): Aeoryi

[Edit from future Kas: @RoyalBeeMage So sorry to @ you in the middle of a long post. I'm curious how you feel about this argument, but I now believe that this vote here from Sart looks Villagery.]

Ah jebiga then. I really cannot and it feels bad to be voting on a player to follow a tell when I also really like the rest of his posts ffs. If he fooled me, he fooled me that's a future problem ig. Sart, Faerie - I still theorise it might be Aeo, but I have a Faerie potential theory maybe. IDK. 

[Edit from future Kas: I've also taken a look at LG88 and believe there's some continuity with Sart's play in that game so I am going to bracket that for now.]

[NOTHING] - Alv, JNV, Kas (all presumably not on. Not sure about Alv.)

---

tldr; 

-Sart can look V for now
-V!lean Alv for early D2 suggestion

Believe JNV, Royal, and Raven are unlikely candidates for Insider, but reasoning here is weaker:
-Royal's D1 vote in response to Stick doesn't feel intuitive for an Insider
-This is masked by CNY but JNV appears out of it in a way that makes me think they might be Village (weak)
-I don't strongly feel Raven is Jaining (I do suspect so but they're weak suspicions) and Raven's play doesn't strongly suggest Insider.

This leaves me with a pool of <Neil, Aeo, Faerie.>

Of the three of them:

-I am probably/possibly tentatively willing to sheep Stick on Neil still, cf. considerations mentioned earlier.
-I actually still think Aeo is a decent candidate here: Aeo's sudden disengagement IMO especially in the middle of a lot of chaos makes me theorise E!Aeo. (I think the defeater here is if E!Aeo doesn't try to seek Village cred here. But IDK.)
-Faerie...I am tempted to think Faerie apparently not being aware of how the Insider and the Informant works looks a bit more V.

Between the two of them, I'll probably go onto Faerie, but I am really tempted to just vote Aeo and be done with.

I don't know if I can be on before rollover again, so I'll consider it a last effort. It's unlikely, but miracles sometimes happen right?

[TheRavenHasLanded]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

lmao. I guess I'll GM PM it then as I did the charts and analysis  

I think from raw profiling, there are two sets of Insider candidates:

1. <Neil, Faerie>
2. <Aeo, Sart>

I currently lean against JNV, Royal, and Raven as Insiders for various reasons, which are not necessarily strong but are informing my views for this cycle. 

Lurker theory pre-supposes Insider behaviour, but in retrospect, I don't find it particularly or necessarily compelling as a response to the (fairly) unexpected/unprecedented triple Elim reveal.

So maybe the better approach is to treat it as an approximate reaction test and to look for outliers. There's an asterisk here because the Insider isn't with that sort of TMI, but given the Insider's wincon, they should probably be mildly invested in the outcome.

Summary:

Nope. Not very useful. I guess there's going a bit more in depth?

[Compliant] - Royal votes Drake on being asked to, citing annoyance with multiple posts.

(I am leaning against this as Insider behaviour, and indeed, think the Insider would probably be more invested in working out what's going on. But it's worth noting both Aman and Stick had voted Drake at that point, meaning it's a vote an Insider should theoretically feel comfortable with, if packaged well. But usually-perception-focused Royal just...dgaf about the optics of this vote!

Joining...two Elims on a third...without question? There's definitely the chance it's a higher level play, and I'm looking at the wrong layer, but for the moment, I like this look.)

[Silence] - Aeo has exactly one post, and ignores the rest of the chaos. This is it.

She does ask Aman about who his teammates are, so there's some interest. But she also doesn't do much else, which I find notable for a player who usually is way too noisy when there's chaos (there's probably a better way of phrasing this, bite me. I just mean that Aeo usually likes to be where the chaos is.) And she notably declines to shift her vote as well despite seeming to engage with the problem.

[NOPE] - Faerie doesn't want to engage with the issue and explicitly peaces out, wanting more information.

(I question, to a lesser extent, Faerie not wanting to get involved. I think it's possible E!Faerie sits this one out and figures the two Elims in the doc should solve this, but... I do wonder. I also do wonder if Faerie consistently missing that the Insider and the Informant don't flip normally is AI - I might weakly V!lean this.)

Worth noting Drake engages with Faerie to remind her about the flips. Faerie doesn't respond. (Faerie - would this have changed your view on the end of C1?)

[Circling-Vote] - Neil sort of stays there and observes and ???s a bit, but engages with Stick when she asks him to vote for Drake over Aman, before voting Drake.

I differentiate this from the other responses because Neil doesn't just vote immediately like Royal does, and doesn't overengage the way Sart does. He just kind of sits in a corner and mulls a bit, asks a few questions, apparently rethinks Aman, but ultimately votes Drake. 

Worth noting Neil moves off Faerie and onto Drake:

This has the effect of tying Drake and Stick, and also bringing Drake into contention. (If you think Neil didn't notice Aman's Stick vote due to only three minutes between the posts, then effectively, Neil thinks the vc is:

Which is Neil being willing to stack onto a train with Aman and Stick on it.)

[ENGAGEMENT] - Sart engages with the specifics of the claim, trying to work out what is going on, and then plans a Village course ahead.

Sigh. Again, I'm torn. Because I personally feel that Sart's D1 feels Village and I would not hesitate to deem it Village...if it were any player other than Sart. (Note to self: re-read LG88.)

Then again, I think on a closer look, a lot of it does feel like make-work rather than necessarily solving. Let's look at what Sart says:

1. This first post is a commentary post, which basically contends that our situation isn't great, and then suspects that the situation is a gambit.

This is...an interesting response. Because I feel like Sart is the first player in the mass of reactions to suggest that a gambit might be happening. I don't fully think that's necessarily a thought anyone has articulated up to that point. It feels a little significant compared to what everyone else thinks. (Keep in mind that apparently-gambit-minded Faerie hasn't even suggested this!)

2. Sart asks Aman about the votestate in the doc.

3. Points out inconsistency in Aman's and Drake's reported vcs.

4. Asks Aman how the Village wins if he is the dying Informant. I think this is a fair question as it's normally not in the Informant's interest to claim. I like this post.

5. Asks Stick for the vc and claims Stick should've claimed normal Villager. I vibe with this sass tbh.

6. Sart returns to ask about the Informant v Insider NK situation. No further cogitation on the Aman/Stick/Drake situation. I'd like to V!read this as the Informant should theoretically know this, but IDK.

7. Sart suggesting the Village try to hit the Insider. Subsequent realisation a tied 

Honestly these two posts feel organic to me in development. SIGH. I really hate this. I really really hate this can I just ignore my sense there's a tell because I cannot. I cannot freakin' stand this. Ahhhhhhhhhhh

He also makes a small slip here:

@Stick. HELP.

He seems to mistake the Informant for the Insider at some point. The first highlighted sentence in particular is weird because Stick and Drake killing themselves doesn't give the Informant complete control - Sart's already clarified this previously by asking who wins in a tussle between the Insider and the Informant. (#6)

Part of me feels that Insider!Sart is less likely to make this kind of slip between the Informant and the Insider. Part of me feels that E!Sart is more likely to be concerned about the Informant.

(Stick catches this, tbf.)

8. I feel like Insider!Sart here should be more cavalier about finding an excuse to vote Drake, because that's the winning recipe for him to get the kill. I really don't E!read this move.

Sure, Insider!Sart could be trying to get Contact!Faerie killed, but having seen no takers, his next winning move is Drake. Recall: Aman dies, Drake dies, Sart gets the kill, and then kills Faerie. Stick has not seen this flaw yet. Yet, he explicitly repudiates this to go:

[Edit from future Kas: @RoyalBeeMage So sorry to @ you in the middle of a long post. I'm curious how you feel about this argument, but I now believe that this vote here from Sart looks Villagery.]

Ah jebiga then. I really cannot and it feels bad to be voting on a player to follow a tell when I also really like the rest of his posts ffs. If he fooled me, he fooled me that's a future problem ig. Sart, Faerie - I still theorise it might be Aeo, but I have a Faerie potential theory maybe. IDK. 

[Edit from future Kas: I've also taken a look at LG88 and believe there's some continuity with Sart's play in that game so I am going to bracket that for now.]

[NOTHING] - Alv, JNV, Kas (all presumably not on. Not sure about Alv.)

 

---

tldr; 

-Sart can look V for now
-V!lean Alv for early D2 suggestion

Believe JNV, Royal, and Raven are unlikely candidates for Insider, but reasoning here is weaker:
-Royal's D1 vote in response to Stick doesn't feel intuitive for an Insider
-This is masked by CNY but JNV appears out of it in a way that makes me think they might be Village (weak)
-I don't strongly feel Raven is Jaining (I do suspect so but they're weak suspicions) and Raven's play doesn't strongly suggest Insider.

This leaves me with a pool of <Neil, Aeo, Faerie.>

Of the three of them:

-I am probably/possibly tentatively willing to sheep Stick on Neil still, cf. considerations mentioned earlier.
-I actually still think Aeo is a decent candidate here: Aeo's sudden disengagement IMO especially in the middle of a lot of chaos makes me theorise E!Aeo. (I think the defeater here is if E!Aeo doesn't try to seek Village cred here. But IDK.)
-Faerie...I am tempted to think Faerie apparently not being aware of how the Insider and the Informant works looks a bit more V.

Between the two of them, I'll probably go onto Faerie, but I am really tempted to just vote Aeo and be done with.

I don't know if I can be on before rollover again, so I'll consider it a last effort. It's unlikely, but miracles sometimes happen right?

What does Jaining mean?

[Kasimir]

Just now, TheRavenHasLanded said:

What does Jaining mean?

 

Edited to add:

Vc for anyone who might not be following:

Quote

neil the beguiled (4): Aeoryi, DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids, Sart
Sart (2): RoyalBeeMage, Stick.
Faerie Braids (2): Kasimir, neil the beguiled
Aeoryi (1): JNV

In retrospect JNV's vote on Aeo is interesting - Aeo's chaosplay (my theory) usually sets JNV off, but in this case, Aeo is actually...not doing much, so I'm surprised Aeo looks Evil to JNV. But anyway that's a problem for people who aren't me as I need sleep.