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Mid-Range Game 66: Knights of Wind and Truth


Fifth Scholar

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Aradon’s grave was cut into the living stone.

Callar had always appreciated a proper funeral. Mourning was a duty to the living, a necessary and solemn one, and though it was rarely pleasant to take up, he had always shouldered it with equanimity. So when he had seen Aradon’s corpse outside their camp, his face mangled in its last expression of agony, his illusions of windspren and soaring figures in the air themselves put to flight, and only his eyes left glaring up, pleadingly, at the heavens, two forces had moved within Callar.

The first produced what was before him. A stone figure was cut into the rock outcropping under which they had laid Aradon, a farmer’s face peeking out of it, hands poised midair with fine filaments of thin stone, so brittle as to resemble mist, protruding from them. A stone honourspren sat upon his shoulder, and behind him, hands folded, the hooded form of a Cryptid. Callar was not an artist. The hands, in particular, were a little suspicious. But it was right in the midst of the mess to take the time for reflection and grief. And as if it were ordained by the Stormfather himself, Callar saw little lavis outcroppings already springing up around the feet of the sculpture. Rest well, friend, he thought, and then bring me also to rest.

The second force was one of immense frustration and a desire to act. The squad, of course, was cowed, and seemingly as lost as ever. Though still distant, he knew they were once again ‘deliberating’ at his request. The last man they had handed over, one of their best Skybreakers…Callar shuddered to think what Honour, if he still lived, would have thought of that trial. Then again, today’s would scarcely be better. He looked as he saw the Radiants approaching him, dragging two people in front of them. He tilted his head.

“Swift again? Really? Are you looking to pick fights?” 

“No sir,” Keleran volunteered. His fellow Stoneward had taken a more vocal turn recently, seemingly driven by the death of Aradon to come out of his shell a bit more. Callar approved. He liked the man, and saw a lot of potential in him. But as ever, he might become his own worst enemy if he kept being driven in on himself. He remembered his times like that. Stonewards needed endurance, but not all could endure. Keleran, however, seemed to have new steel in him as he continued. “Sir, well, our investigations got a bit muddled again, but it ended up being between Swift and Bailis. And though I hate to accuse anyone on the squad…” He trailed off again. Storms, Callar understood. How did you go about deciding which of your squadmates would betray you? All with the knowledge that some would?

Swift chimed in. “It’s not me, sir. But if you’d like, I could Adhere him to the ground. Light or no light! I’m not particular. I think–”

Callar cut them off, glancing around the group of Knights. “That will do. Where are Death-daughter-time and the one styling himself a Wit? Have they nothing to say in this debate?”

“Wit would not commit,” Taliat said, impassive as ever. “As for Death-daughter-time…she was not present with us in deliberation, and we found it odd, until we found her, or at least, what was left, by her bedroll. She’s charred. It seems one of the Surgebinders may have…taken matters into his own hands.”

Callar collapsed. Another one gone. And no real way of knowing her allegiance. He would have to keep going, though. “Search her belongings, then. And search Bailis’ too. He’s coming with the Skybreakers that the Blackthorn is sending tomorrow.” He smiled grimly at the aghast look on his face. “It’s not execution, but the squad doesn’t trust you. I’ll let the Kholins’ mercy deal with you. It will at least exceed that of the more impulsive among you.” His rebuke issued, he turned, not heeding the discomfort and shifting of the Radiants behind him. Bringt auch mich zu Ruh, he repeated, seeing Aradon’s face again, and he fell asleep in front of the sad small statue.


Ashbringer was court-martialed and removed! He was a Loyal Knight Radiant Willshaper of the First Ideal!

Vote Count: 

Ashbringer (5): Kasimir, Archer, Aeoryi, Matrim’s Dice, STINK

Archer (3): Devotary of Spontaneity, Ashbringer, JNV, |TJ|

Ravenclawjedi42 is gone, reduced to ashes. She was a Loyal Knight Radiant Edgedancer of the First Ideal!

Stoneward messages:

Quote

However, this valorous visitation of a bygone vexation stands vivified, and has vowed to vanquish these venal and virulent vermin vanguarding vice and vouchsafing the violently vicious and voracious violation of volition

Cycle Three has begun! It will end in a little over 46 hours, at 9:00 PM EST on Friday 10 November.

Result PMs are going out after the writeup; sorry about the delay. Ash and Raven, please don't post, you're dead :P 

There is an Exe today.

Please remember semi-open PM rules.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Aeoryi as Saffron Iguana

2. Amanuensis/Experience as Gen-ku Skybreaker

3. Ravenclawjedi42 as Death-daughter-Time Edgedancer

4. |TJ| as Galatar

5. Ashbringer as Bailis Willshaper

6. Matrim’s Dice as Shay

7. Archer as Phil Swift

8. Kasimir as Keleran

9. STINK as TBD

10. Araris Valerian as Aradon Lightweaver

11. JNV

12. Psiti?tēebe?t

13. Devotary of Spontaneity as Taliat/Orotha and Iolea

Good luck!

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1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

@Fifth Scholar- Are kills that fail for the following reasons publicly announced:

A. Victim was untargetable.
B. Killer was roleblocked.
C. Target survived with Transportation.
D. Victim was protected.

Specifically, I'm asking about which types of survival cases are announced.

None of these failures will be publicly announced. Only successful kills are reported in the writeup.

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28 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

None of these failures will be publicly announced. Only successful kills are reported in the writeup.

Great, wonderful, thank you so much sir >>

25 minutes ago, Archer said:

Based on recent trends, we shouldn't assume that the action was submitted. Incompetence happens. But I'd bet on it being blocked. 

This time, we have a way of finding out.

Edited to add:

I want to update the pathwalking picture, before I try to look at last cycle.

V!Wit World:

Quote

Archer (1): JNV
Aman (5): Archer, Wit, Raven, KasAman
Mat (1): Araris
Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash
JNV (1): Mat
Nobody (2): STINK, TJ

In V!Wit world, we know two very important pieces of information: we know the Aman train and the Wit train have both exceptionally high purity. From my POV, this more or less implies one Elim in <Archer, Devo, Mat, JNV.> I don't think it as likely that both STINK and TJ are Evil.

I'm semi okay with V!JNV, which means my main pool is in <Archer, Devo, Mat.> If STINK and TJ are both Village, then hitting within that pool is pretty much guaranteed to give a decent result.

E!Wit World:

Quote

Archer (1): JNV
Aman (5): Archer, Wit, Raven, KasAman
Mat (1): Araris
Wit (3): Devo, Aeo, Ash
JNV (1): Mat
Nobody (2): STINK, TJ

As a side-note, in E!Wit world, I propose we have a hard time understanding why the Elims are so complacent. This is because we now know that Raven is V, and so was Ash. A significant amount of activity would've come from Village-side, in terms of who was online and voting late into the cycle. Devo was a late voter camped on Wit, and in an E!Wit world, could theoretically move off, however.

STINK noted he was offline, so could not intervene. I note that STINK's last post came at about 0643hrs, with an assumed cut-off of 0700hrs, or 3 hours before rollover.

The best we can say is that Wit wasn't on the radar at that time, so STINK can't be ruled out as an E!partner. However, E!STINK going off to sleep without so much as voting is a bit ?

Main partners in <Archer, Mat, Devo>, with a <JNV, STINK, TJ> side. I'm ok with V!JNV I think. 

What's interesting for me is that just based on pure final vote analysis, regardless of Wit's alignment, I'm with a final pool of <Archer, Mat, Devo> for at least one Elim. Hard to see Devo and Archer teamed with the cross-voting from last cycle.

Edited by Kasimir
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Mat

Because somebody is probably going to light up Archer, judging from yesterday, and I want my pool of three set on fire with a Molotov cocktail, thank you.

More seriously, pending ISO/re-read/desperate prayer to the spirit of deceased Aman for guidance.

Edited to add:

15 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We'll have to do something with Mat given how many connections there are to him. If it's not plausible to exe him then Archer and Raven are the best connections; Archer's more closely tied to Mat but Raven's more likely to be evil than Archer individually, especially if Mat is village.

What does Raven's flip do to your calculus?

Would like to know as well why you moved back to Archer, when you previously believed Archer to be the V one between <Archer, Mat.>

If we don't make any significant progress after this cycle, especially if I'm dead, I'd like to request the Village start massclaiming and taking ownership of your actions. While the kills can't be mechsolved, being able to use abilities/figure out what happened might be helpful here.

I'm currently of the belief that the kill was either roleblocked or protected. If you're unwilling to claim in thread, please consider PMing me, or Aeo. Unfortunately, I don't feel comfortable making more recommendations at this juncture given the state of my reads. Info might help us make more sense of what was going on here.

Edited to add 2:

@Matrim's Dice: On the supposition Devo flips V, are you then committed to a low activity/volume Elim team?

Edited by Kasimir
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42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

On the supposition Devo flips V, are you then committed to a low activity/volume Elim team?

I mean, I don’t know what else it would be. I’d definitely relook Archer at that point but I certainly don’t go after you or Aeoryi. Everyone else qualifies as low activity / volume. Could at least explain the lack of kill, in the case of no RB/protect.

1 minute ago, ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ said:

Was this me?

Yes, like two and a half hours late, quoting someone who also was late 

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36 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, I don’t know what else it would be. I’d definitely relook Archer at that point but I certainly don’t go after you or Aeoryi. Everyone else qualifies as low activity / volume. Could at least explain the lack of kill, in the case of no RB/protect.

Fair, I'm basically trying to understand what your thought process is/where you are now in the game. I am not fully convinced Devo is a hit but at the same time, late Devo reversal vote absurdly threw me.

Edited to add:

A few more comments on the lack of kill:

-Deem it unlikely the kill hit a second ED. Raven likely only ED in this game, and presence of DB#2 seems unlikely, given just one kill.
-Deem it unlikely a LW intercepted a kill with their hoover: no sign of further hoovering activity in this game. Potentially Araris as the only hoovering machine.
-IMO, high likelihood EC RBed or protected against a kill. Potential of SB#2 or TW protecc. If you targeted someone, please claim. If you feel uncomfortable claiming in thread, please PM me or Aeo and claim, thank you. Will do best to ensure info goes to thread.
-Judging it less likely Wit was the target. However, if you have reason to believe it was you, please PM me or Aeo.

Edited to add 2:

Village: SB / ED / WS / LW

-Thirteen players, likely at least one of each Order (personal suspicion.)
-We know there's at least one SW out there.
-We know there's at most one DB out there. I base this off the DB's apparent restraint, and the fact there's only one DB shot this cycle. Also, given the SB's potential to gain Division, I expect Fifth wanted to be careful with how many DBs there are.
-Unlikely to be a second ED.
-Archer has claimed WR - at 4WR, he gains a fairly strong protecc.

So what's the Village roster like?

SB / ED / WS / LW / WR (assume) / DB (assume)???

Problem with this make-up IMO is Village team seems pretty jacked.

-Ash was a target scanner and had a 50% chance of surviving the first kill against him.
-Raven could become untargetable every other cycle, and could gain Progression, a protecc.
-Aman had a roleblock and could get a kill that scanned you even if you survived it.
-Araris had a hoover which in theory could function a bit as a redirect but also a swiss army knife power and the ability to switch off Abrasion users.
-Assume for the moment Archer is Village. He has a Soothe but can pick up a RB and the ability to protecc from all kills.
-Assume the DB is Village. I am sort of okay with this given the DB set-up but we'll see. Has Division, can pick up Abrasion, plus an unblockable, unredirectable kill.

Wtf do you put on an Elim team against this? Protecc? EC? Another WS?

I think we know enough to start making informed guesses about the distro, but this is just weird to me.

Edited by Kasimir
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7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Would like to know as well why you moved back to Archer, when you previously believed Archer to be the V one between <Archer, Mat.>

Thinking Archer is more likely to be village than Mat does not mean thinking Archer is village. E/e Archer/Mat is still plenty possible, especially with Mat voting Ash over Archer and now voting me over Archer. It was never going to be a tie; voting Archer before Archer and your votes meant Archer died instead of a tie, and then after those two votes Ash was dead regardless of what I did. Killing Ash doesn't really tell us anything. E!Ash just makes v!Archer and Mat more likely, in which case just as well to kill from the other direction, the actual v!Ash gives no data from C1. Does make e!Archer more likely.

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36 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Thinking Archer is more likely to be village than Mat does not mean thinking Archer is village.

Cool. So I presume your current theorised team isn't <Mat, Raven, Wit>, and you had more E!Archer credences than E!Ash. Where's it currently in?

36 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

E/e Archer/Mat is still plenty possible, especially with Mat voting Ash over Archer and now voting me over Archer.

Are you currently viewing E!Mat as the more plausible option or E!Archer? Accepted this is an inclusive or question.


Empty spaces, where others should have been. Keleran kept away the practice sword and went to tend to his duties. 

There was no death, in the night. No death they had feared, at the hands of traitors. Only the squad, turning on each other. Difficult enough to consider other Radiants potential traitors. Realising the weapon they were becoming, turned on themselves, rather than standing shoulder to shoulder against the relentless tide...

It weighed on him, now, as the pressure once had. 

But the traitors were among them, and Keleran did not like the picture that was slowly coalescing. 

Perhaps it was Orotha who could have wielded the knife. Aradon had been seen in Orotha's company, shortly before he died, placing her among those who had the access with which to surprise and overwhelm the Lightweaver. 

And then there was Phil Swift. Something about Swift had never sat right with Keleran. He didn't trust the glib way the man talked, as though he was always trying to sell you something, the way his eyes darted about, as though searching for a vulnerability—or an exit. The man fought well enough, and he'd managed to bond with an honorspren, but even so.

Then there was Shay. It led back to the three of them, one way or another. Keleran was determined not to be led astray by considerations of the one who styled himself a Wit. It was possible, he thought, that this 'Wit' was a turncoat too. But the way Keleran saw it, he figured the Radiant might be innocent after all. And if Wit's innocence or guilt led back to Orotha, back to Swift, and back to Shay...

You did not deny the road because it was hard. It had to be walked, so you walked it.

Better now, than when they were truly desperate.

There was reasons to doubt all three of them. Reasons he stayed his hand and his tongue.

"Are you going to watch all of them?" Ellu whispered.

Keleran nodded shortly. 

"...There's just one of you."

"Two," Keleran said.

"I didn't volunteer! Someone has to watch you, Keleran!"

Keleran rolled his eyes. "And why, exactly, do I need watching?"

"Because you'll do something stupid, obviously," Ellu said, breezily. "Like forget to sleep, forget to eat, forget to take your rock buddies with you. You didn't think I'd forgotten that?"

"Ellu, the rock buddies won't keep watch for me."

"That's because it's good for you to do things for yourself," Ellu insisted, poking him with a finger. "But it's rude for you to ignore them!"

Keleran sighed. "I'll find two other people," he said, trudging off.

"And I'm coming along! Maybe their spren are up to gamble," Ellu cheered.

Edited by Kasimir
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30 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Where's it currently in?

Current suspicions are in [Archer, Mat], especially together. I would vote for either. More likely, they're pretty tied together. There's more teams with e!Archer than e!Mat judging by the votes of who showed up to save just Archer vs. just Mat, but those are less likely individually. I'd rather go for Archer and Mat before checking Wit, you, Stink, Aeoryi. Archer being 3rd ideal while Mat is first ideal makes the former more dangerous certainly, but I'd be willing to exe one and ask the Dustbringer to kill the other.

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Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Current suspicions are in [Archer, Mat], especially together. I would vote for either. More likely, they're pretty tied together. There's more teams with e!Archer than e!Mat judging by the votes of who showed up to save just Archer vs. just Mat, but those are less likely individually. I'd rather go for Archer and Mat before checking Wit, you, Stink, Aeoryi. Archer being 3rd ideal while Mat is first ideal makes the former more dangerous certainly, but I'd be willing to exe one and ask the Dustbringer to kill the other.

I realise this is an awkward question in the thread, but if you aren't already using it, would you be willing to shoot me a PM?

Any chance of elaborating on this a bit, also?

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13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Any chance of elaborating on this a bit, also?

Well it's in the next section with those four teammates-by-votes. Wit is more tied to Mat, you and Stink and more tied to Archer, Aeoryi voted in Archer's favor but was also willing to kill both Archer and Mat C1. That leaves more people on singular Archer teams than singular Mat teams, but I'd also say Wit is more likely to be evil than you or Aeoryi. Stink is the more likely in a singular Archer team.

Edit: Looked at JNV as a C2 Archer voter, turns out they also voted Archer C1, so they're a possibility on a e!Mat/v!Archer team.

Edited by Devotary of Spontaneity
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13 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Well it's in the next section with those four teammates-by-votes. Wit is more tied to Mat, you and Stink and more tied to Archer, Aeoryi voted in Archer's favor but was also willing to kill both Archer and Mat C1. That leaves more people on singular Archer teams than singular Mat teams, but I'd also say Wit is more likely to be evil than you or Aeoryi. Stink is the more likely in a singular Archer team.

Edit: Looked at JNV as a C2 Archer voter, turns out they also voted Archer C1, so they're a possibility on a e!Mat/v!Archer team.

Reasonable. Would point out that given the plausibility of Archer's WR claim, shooting Archer and exeing Mat appears to be the better option from your POV. 

Do you regard TJ as a potential Mat teammate? TJ's Archer push makes me feel he's less likely to be an Archer teammate.

My restraining factor on JNV is the degree to which JNV isn't gunning ideals. I think it's fair to say the <STINK, TJ, Wit, JNV> pool may not be entirely clean but I would be very surprised if it was extremely populated with Elims. None of them are gunning ideals. JNV is theoretically but if you pay attention to the thread, they missed last cycle.

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8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Reasonable. Would point out that given the plausibility of Archer's WR claim, shooting Archer and exeing Mat appears to be the better option from your POV. 

Do you regard TJ as a potential Mat teammate? TJ's Archer push makes me feel he's less likely to be an Archer teammate.

If Archer's gotten 4th ideal by being protected somewhere and can protect Mat. Otherwise, one less vote isn't a significant obstacle. Whichever one we vote, we should make sure is a collective decision and have someone else get 2nd place for the ideal. Versus if e!Archer does have 4th ideal and survives again, then he has 2 lives tomorrow.

More likely Mat than Archer. It's hard for me to see a scenario where TJ and Mat are on a team and TJ does nothing C1. That should have been enough of a threat that TJ would know when the cycle ended if he was in the doc at all.

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11 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Archer's gotten 4th ideal by being protected somewhere and can protect Mat. Otherwise, one less vote isn't a significant obstacle. Whichever one we vote, we should make sure is a collective decision and have someone else get 2nd place for the ideal. Versus if e!Archer does have 4th ideal and survives again, then he has 2 lives tomorrow.

Possible but a narrow path, I think. In theory, requires the Elims to have a DB and TW/EC to pull this off. I guess it's theoretically possible they did a free ideal that way for the DB, but the EC would've been forced to RB and votejack at some point. IDK, thinking aloud. As these things aren't announced, it's possible I guess. But considering likelihood.

Archer suggested Aeoryi as second, and I'm fine with that. I apologise but I do not remotely want anyone in 3pool to get second at this juncture, if it can be helped. I can sort of see a V!Archer world, but some other factors are an utter mess. Archer will get a free ideal at the end of this cycle one way or another, so I'd rather not boost that.

As I've said earlier, I'm not exactly very helpful, so I don't see much utility in my getting any Ideal promotion.

If TJ looks Village from most angles, I'd be cool with TJ too I guess.

Edited by Kasimir
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11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Fair, I'm basically trying to understand what your thought process is/where you are now in the game. I am not fully convinced Devo is a hit but at the same time, late Devo reversal vote absurdly threw me.

Edited to add:

A few more comments on the lack of kill:

-Deem it unlikely the kill hit a second ED. Raven likely only ED in this game, and presence of DB#2 seems unlikely, given just one kill.
-Deem it unlikely a LW intercepted a kill with their hoover: no sign of further hoovering activity in this game. Potentially Araris as the only hoovering machine.
-IMO, high likelihood EC RBed or protected against a kill. Potential of SB#2 or TW protecc. If you targeted someone, please claim. If you feel uncomfortable claiming in thread, please PM me or Aeo and claim, thank you. Will do best to ensure info goes to thread.
-Judging it less likely Wit was the target. However, if you have reason to believe it was you, please PM me or Aeo.

Edited to add 2:

Village: SB / ED / WS / LW

-Thirteen players, likely at least one of each Order (personal suspicion.)
-We know there's at least one SW out there.
-We know there's at most one DB out there. I base this off the DB's apparent restraint, and the fact there's only one DB shot this cycle. Also, given the SB's potential to gain Division, I expect Fifth wanted to be careful with how many DBs there are.
-Unlikely to be a second ED.
-Archer has claimed WR - at 4WR, he gains a fairly strong protecc.

So what's the Village roster like?

SB / ED / WS / LW / WR (assume) / DB (assume)???

Problem with this make-up IMO is Village team seems pretty jacked.

-Ash was a target scanner and had a 50% chance of surviving the first kill against him.
-Raven could become untargetable every other cycle, and could gain Progression, a protecc.
-Aman had a roleblock and could get a kill that scanned you even if you survived it.
-Araris had a hoover which in theory could function a bit as a redirect but also a swiss army knife power and the ability to switch off Abrasion users.
-Assume for the moment Archer is Village. He has a Soothe but can pick up a RB and the ability to protecc from all kills.
-Assume the DB is Village. I am sort of okay with this given the DB set-up but we'll see. Has Division, can pick up Abrasion, plus an unblockable, unredirectable kill.

Wtf do you put on an Elim team against this? Protecc? EC? Another WS?

I think we know enough to start making informed guesses about the distro, but this is just weird to me.

I came up with two distros for elims: SB+bs/wr+ec. 

Sorry I hate having to backdoor the shard from a crqppg mobile device fro 2016.

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3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It's hard for me to see a scenario where TJ and Mat are on a team and TJ does nothing C1. That should have been enough of a threat that TJ would know when the cycle ended if he was in the doc at all.

I'll buy that

Spoiler

 

 

Quote

 

Indifferent about Aman, Archer, Mat, Raven.

Rather Archer than Raven because of the Windrunner role. But not enough votes for that. 

Between Aman and Mat. Mat and Archer were fighting so they support Mat (ish. Worried about how we came together)

Is Aman voting Mat or not bruh

Araris is camping on Mat

So many new votes! So its between Aman and Wit, so I choose Wit. [votes Wit]

"We still have 30 minutes left to make another vote, just go for something. You can change it later."

 

I'm interested in this post from C1 (plain language translated). I'm specifically interested in whether e!Devo would put e!Wit in this position. They can count on my vote manip probably, and potentially vote movements from allies. It could be a play for 2nd place. But if anything, I'm more inclined to read it as protective of e!Mat, who they mention several times. Then the note it's subject to change is unusual from Devo. 

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