Mid-Range Game 65: Set on Infiltration

[Experience he/him]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

 

@ExperienceTwo thing I wanted to check.

• will the game immediately end if the village achieves its win-con?
• Do the red names in the list count for our win-con?

PAFO

And...PAFO :P.

15 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

2. @Experience, if someone has an extra life, will it be included in the writeup next day (like tyrian falls)? Or is that (probably) a PAFO?

 

PAFO :).

[Mat he/him]

21 minutes ago, DeTess said:

That was kinda my point. If there is nothing alignment indicative about them, then why suspect one of the elims is among them, when from a purely statistical point of view, it's more likely they aren't?

After my first SE game, you gave me a piece of feedback that was basically the opposite of this post xD

[DeTess she/her]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

After my first SE game, you gave me a piece of feedback that was basically the opposite of this post xD

Really?

Anyway, just for the record, I'm not saying 'ignore them entirely', I'm just curious what made Aeoryi think it was more likely there was an elim among those two.

edit: Also, I don't like those PAFO's at all XD

Edited September 25, 2023 by DeTess

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Really?

Anyway, just for the record, I'm not saying 'ignore them entirely', I'm just curious what made Aeoryi think it was more likely there was an elim among those two.

Kinda— 

Maybe more of a late game point and I’m not really sure if the application is the same here but I do think it’s sort of funny :P.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kinda— 

Maybe more of a late game point and I’m not really sure if the application is the same here but I do think it’s sort of funny :P.

Yeah, that was definitely a late-game thing, though going by that logic Stink did land in my leaning elim stack, mostly because I expected a little more from them.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

Really?

Anyway, just for the record, I'm not saying 'ignore them entirely', I'm just curious what made Aeoryi think it was more likely there was an elim among those two.

edit: Also, I don't like those PAFO's at all XD

Well, I ask this question. Who do you think is elim?

I have more evidence for people who post rather than those who don't. I believe it is easier to say a more active player is easier to E!read or V!read than an inactive player, hence why I am putting my suspicions on them. I feel like I'm just spiraling now, so yeah.

I mean, I have role and alignment claims from many people now, and those definitely influence my decisions.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Aeoryi said:

Well, I ask this question. Who do you think is elim?

Currently my main suspects are Mat, Araris and Stink, Stink mostly because they've been around long enough to do more than what they've been doing so far.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, DeTess said:

Currently my main suspects are Mat, Araris and Stink, Stink mostly because they've been around long enough to do more than what they've been doing so far.

Reasoning for Mat or Araris?

Also, does the kill action make it so you can't make another action? Then my opinion will change greatly if it is true.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Reasoning for Mat or Araris?

Also, does the kill action make it so you can't make another action? Then my opinion will change greatly if it is true.

Traditionally, yes, the elim kill uses up an action slot, and usually we only get one.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Aeoryi said:

Reasoning for Mat or Araris?

My reasoning on all my reads is in this post:

5 hours ago, DeTess said:

quick and dirty reads list

Solid village:

• no one.

mild village: 

• Aeoryi. Effort always looks good in my opinion. It is pretty clear that they have some experience with these kinds of games, despite being new to SE. I'd like to think their elim playstyle would be a bit more subdued as what they are doing now seems to be the opposite of hiding. Not completely convinced on them yet, but I don't want to execute them anytime soon.
• Archer. I am not getting the elim vibes I was getting from them in earlier games,a dn they seems to eb actively working to solve the game, which looks good in my book. Not 100% convince on them yet, but like Aeoryi I don't want to execute them right now.

neutral:

• TKN. Gut says they're evil, but I can't deny their response when I pressed them on their win-con with the implication the village win-con was not to simply kill all the infiltrators was pretty village looking. There where enough red flags that I can't put them any higher just yet.
• wizard: don't like the way they sniped in the tie without any real explanation, but that would only have really looked off if Lab had been evil (though an elim trying to snipe a v!TKN while they were still under suspicion is also a possibility). Don't know enough about their play style to judge how normal their current engagement is.
• @JNV hasn't posted yet. JNV, you with us?

elim leaning:

• Mat: mostly gut here. They felt like they were keeping to the sidelines a bit too much until right at the end of C1. The way he switched votes at the end there might just have been to push engagement as he claimed, but if so, why wait so long to get his initial vote in. Also don't like the way he brought in the lab vote for much the same reason I disliked the archer votes, but at least focussing the mechanic kill on the less present player looks slightly better. Overall seems to have been keeping tot he sidelinbes of D1 too much, which looks off to me.
• Araris: elim leaning for the same reason as I am somewhat suspicious of TKN, but with fewer redeeming factors. Asking for the roleblocker claim is noteworthy as my ability roleblocks, and normally roleblocking is a targeted ability. In other words, a traditional roleblocker would have been able to pinpoint who submitted the kill if they had blocked the kill, so e!araris asking for the claim while thinking it would be right on the money would be a bit odd. But an elim would know that claim was probably nearly inevitable, so eh, maybe mare NAI?
• Stink: mostly on here because they are present but haven't really said anything of note yet, nor have they voted. @STINK, any thoughts?
   

Some other comments: I highly doubt TKN and wizard are on the same team together. Likewise, Archer can't really be evil with either TKN or Araris. Not enough connections like this to really do anything with right now, but it's something I wanted to put down nonetheless

For now I'm putting a vote down on mat.

Regarding the kill, I don't think we know. There is no universal 'one action per person' rule, so unless @Experienceconfirms whether submitting an elim kill means the one that submits it can't do another action we don't know.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Traditionally, yes, the elim kill uses up an action slot, and usually we only get one.

@Experience is this true (PAFO for sure but just wanted to check)

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

My reasoning on all my reads is in this post:

Regarding the kill, I don't think we know. There is no universal 'one action per person' rule, so unless @Experienceconfirms whether submitting an elim kill means the one that submits it can't do another action we don't know.

You're missing some people. Ravenclawjedi42 mainly.

[DeTess she/her]

9 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

@Experience is this true (PAFO for sure but just wanted to check)

You're missing some people. Ravenclawjedi42 mainly.

Wait, I did? Ah, I used the people in the spoiler tag of the opening post and missed them because they where outside it. let me see...

D1 looked village to me until the end. They had that new player vibe with some indications they were trying to reason through things by themselves, which suggests they probably don't have a doc with an active coconspirator. I don't like how they then went with the trends for the votes at day's end without really using their own reasoning, which suggests they are trying to disappear in the crowd so to speek. D2 they've been fairly defensive after Mat put some suspicion on them and haven't really been pushing their own suspicions.

Overall read is neutral but trending towards an elim lean more than a village lean at the moment.

edit: regarding what Mat said, it is generally true and I've used action tracking to try and pinpoint elims in other games, but unless it is confirmed for this game it is a dangerous assumption to make.

Edited September 25, 2023 by DeTess

[Ravenclawjedi42]

I think that, due to his inactivity, I’ll be voting Stink for now. But that is subject to change. @STINK, would you like to change my mind? 
As of this moment I am not sure about anyone, I feel that anyone could be any role. Stink just seems the most suspicious at the moment.

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 hours ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

I think that, due to his inactivity, I’ll be voting Stink for now. But that is subject to change. @STINK, would you like to change my mind? 
As of this moment I am not sure about anyone, I feel that anyone could be any role. Stink just seems the most suspicious at the moment.

Okay.

Spoiler

This annoying spoiler box I can't get rid of

I really need to do my TKN and Araris analysis but I have to ask, @The Known Novel, why did you soothe a vote off of yourself? You were in no real danger, considering you were at:

(3): Labyrinth

(2): The known novel

(2): Araris Valerian

I really have been confused at the motive here. Real confused.

[Mat he/him]

30 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I really have been confused at the motive here. Real confused.

Presumably because it's blackout so he was better safe than sorry and had nothing better to do with his action.

[Archer he/him]

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Presumably because it's blackout so he was better safe than sorry and had nothing better to do with his action.

Yeah, slight positive that we know he didn't submit the NK because of it, but otherwise it's NAI. Being within one vote of the lead is too close for comfort for many people. 

I think I'd like to get the Araris train rolling again. I think Aeorri, DeTess, TKN, and Mat are in my trusts for various reasons and the next most talkative person is Araris. He tried to kill me last round so 

 Araris

[Aeoryi she/her]

58 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Presumably because it's blackout so he was better safe than sorry and had nothing better to do with his action.

VC:

Wiz: araris

Ravenclawjedi42: mat

mat: detess

STINK: Ravenclawjedi42

Araris: Archer

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Yeah, slight positive that we know he didn't submit the NK because of it, but otherwise it's NAI. Being within one vote of the lead is too close for comfort for many people. 

I think I'd like to get the Araris train rolling again. I think Aeorri, DeTess, TKN, and Mat are in my trusts for various reasons and the next most talkative person is Araris. He tried to kill me last round so 

 Araris

I think TKN is personally fine. After reading through his posts, I think he makes sense. So I'm going to move TKN to neutral + (mild village), and Araris is next on the list.

Village: Archer, DeTess

Mild village: Mat, TKN

Neutral: wandering wizard, @JNV (dude respond pls), Ravenclawjedi42 

Mild Elim: Araris, STINK

Elim: (no one)

 

So, since I'm not really liking the mat or Ravenclawjedi42 votes, or voting off someone for not sayig much, Araris Valerian.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Aeoryi
Specified who was in Elim

[Experience he/him]

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

My reasoning on all my reads is in this post:

Regarding the kill, I don't think we know. There is no universal 'one action per person' rule, so unless @Experienceconfirms whether submitting an elim kill means the one that submits it can't do another action we don't know.

PAFO

4 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

@Experience is this true (PAFO for sure but just wanted to check)

You're missing some people. Ravenclawjedi42 mainly.

PAFO

:).

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

Okay.

  Reveal hidden contents

This annoying spoiler box I can't get rid of

I really need to do my TKN and Araris analysis but I have to ask, @The Known Novel, why did you soothe a vote off of yourself? You were in no real danger, considering you were at:

(3): Labyrinth

(2): The known novel

(2): Araris Valerian

I really have been confused at the motive here. Real confused.

When I put in the order to soothe, it was 3/3/2, with me being tied. Not trusting it to a coinflip when I can save a confirmed villager with my manip.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, The Known Novel said:

When I put in the order to soothe, it was 3/3/2, with me being tied. Not trusting it to a coinflip when I can save a confirmed villager with my manip.

Okay. That's fine.

[STINK he/him]

5 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

I mean, I have role and alignment claims from many people now, and those definitely influence my decisions.

It's C2 you should disregard basically any claim you receive regardless of what you think your skill in discerning or getting claims is. It's legit C2 like unless everyone changed their minds to fully trusting strangers you got a whole lot of people making guesses at what sounds good and not what they are. Though I also appreciete this claim of many PMs but I never got any darn PM spidering or whatever you were calling it on my end which like sure maybe u just skipped over me but why would I believe you have many valid claims and not people going 'uh huh yeah I can also roleblock' and alignment claims mean nothing unless you have the role to ask if they lied about alignment

PMs are nice and all but don't go crazy about them they're an element and not the end-all be all.

5 hours ago, DeTess said:

Currently my main suspects are Mat, Araris and Stink, Stink mostly because they've been around long enough to do more than what they've been doing so far.

DeTess I know its been a while and someone will sus me for this which sure come at me I will look for your weakest points and actually PM people to get some kinda convo going but I er ain't do much really? Not like I'm envious of current activity or anything and meta-nonwithstanding I encourage this level of stuff to do and be doing but like my main active hours are when you lot chill out and then I gotta handle everyone doing stuff outside of when I'm most fully dedicated and like fr no-one PM'd me the elims are not actually caring about village trust they just want key players which they think matter after like 60 hours or so of the game kinda wild when u think about it

Am I voting now not at all I'm boutta head to bed but yeah I'm getting sussed by someone who apparently has accurate claims which if I die o7 to them make sure you rethink things from now on I've been on that confidence boost early before my like earliest games are honestly cringe to read now

Also also also definitely hypocritical but Imma say it anyway 'cause I can but unless I reread tomorrow and pick up on more stuff it just seems like a whole lotta posts about nothing so far just run o' the mill stuff like 

(btw like actual oblique reputation manip is banned on the shard fairly sure so under this is the real game alternative which is legit)

Someone PM me and I'll PM everyone else and you'll get the honour of having your name first in the title compared to everyone else when the GM has to compare PM titles (smile) (not-a-wink) 

Also also also also also sussing most claims made by now yeah its 11 players but it's legit C2 like do we just give elims the pieces to the puzzle here wheres the solidarity 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Apologies for my lack of engagement this cycle, I was frantically finishing up my job application materials.

Pretty tired right now but I'll do my best to get caught up before the cycle ends and post some informed opinions.

[DeTess she/her]

@STINKIf you had to vote right now, who would you vote? Given the size of the game we're probably past the first third already, so this is no time to be sticking on the sidelines.

Same to @JNV. I know you like to play with PM's, but it's pointless to do so fi you don't at least check into the main thread once in a while.

Speaking of PM's, Archer has told me some things that make me less eager to see Mat executed this cycle, though I might return to it next cycle depending on what happens towards the end of this one. Moving my vote to Araris

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, catching up hasn’t really happened, so I’m leading with my gut. Wizard responded to me, though he hasn’t really contributed much. I’d be willing to return to a vote on him. DeTess seems village based on role stuff and the lack of a death to the elims, but I’m holding off a little on that read until the game mechanics become more clear. Both Aeoryi and Archer are giving me village vibes.

That leaves JNV (inactive), TKN, Ravenclaw, STINK, and Mat. I feel like Mat has flown under my radar a bit, not sure why. I think I’m voting STINK. I have a bad tendency to just always suspect TKN and want to avoid that. Raven is new. I’d be down to do a CC exe on JNV if folks feel discussion has been lacking and we could use an extra turn to talk things through.

I’m unfortunately busy from now until end of turn, so this may be farewell. Might be able to briefly check and change my vote if necessary.

[Archer he/him]

39 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, catching up hasn’t really happened, so I’m leading with my gut. Wizard responded to me, though he hasn’t really contributed much. I’d be willing to return to a vote on him. DeTess seems village based on role stuff and the lack of a death to the elims, but I’m holding off a little on that read until the game mechanics become more clear. Both Aeoryi and Archer are giving me village vibes.

That leaves JNV (inactive), TKN, Ravenclaw, STINK, and Mat. I feel like Mat has flown under my radar a bit, not sure why. I think I’m voting STINK. I have a bad tendency to just always suspect TKN and want to avoid that. Raven is new. I’d be down to do a CC exe on JNV if folks feel discussion has been lacking and we could use an extra turn to talk things through.

I’m unfortunately busy from now until end of turn, so this may be farewell. Might be able to briefly check and change my vote if necessary.

If it helps, Raven recently told me they'd checked to see if JNV was online yesterday. I can't really see an elim putting in that much effort. Maybe a more experienced elim was trying to see who might get pinch hit for, but I'm leaning towards not in this case. 

With regards to a CC, I believe a pinch hitter for JNV is available and likely to step in soon, so there's that. Unfortunately for them, I have JNV pencilled in as a good fit for an elim team. 

I'm cool with Stink and Araris being wagons today. I've got a pool of them, Wiz, and JNV that I'm fairly ambivalent / leaning evil about