Mid-Range Game 65: Set on Infiltration

[The Unknown Ajah]

45 minutes ago, Archer said:

Laby was excluded because we know they're not evil. My guess is that in the event of a tie, one is chosen from the VC to bring the number to two elims. Perhaps them having more voters, if you ignore the vote manip, tipped it towards TKN.

Possible experiment : we all vote for a single candidate. Unlikely to yield an interesting result. 

My guess is if we make the leaderboard properly call out the elims, it's a hidden wincon. Otherwise we can play as usual and still win. 

TKN, did you save yourself with vote manipulation? If you didn't, I'm curious why someone was invested enough in you to do it on your behalf. 

I'll just go ahead and say, as information helps the village disproportionately in blackouts, I did in fact Soothe the vote back when the votes were tied.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Seconding the request to claim any RBs 

I didn’t like you implying you weren’t surprised the list meant nothing, considering your vote.

Well, honestly, I'm not surprised either despite my vote. My vote was pretty much purely informational.

So, going off the new list, I'd agree that the top two that aren't exed are put as elims, and probably also agree that there's some extra wincon nonsense going on with the list. 

[Aeoryi]

Well, that was cool.

But now who do we vote for? We have no leads (no obvious ones) and the only lead we had (the list) was proven to be not credable.

I'm probably gonna do some reads soon. I encourage y'all to do the same.

[The Wandering Wizard]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit:

What did you see from how it played out?

Archer rathered Lab die than TKN and he may have known about the vote manip but that starts to lean into my paranoia. Which says that TKN and Archer could be teamed so speak up roleblocker please unless it was a maybe extra life or protect that tanked the hit and now I’m rambling and kinda just saying what has already been said.

I think Archer most likely didn’t know though about the manip.

[Aeoryi]

3 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Archer rathered Lab die than TKN and he may have known about the vote manip but that starts to lean into my paranoia. Which says that TKN and Archer could be teamed so speak up roleblocker please unless it was a maybe extra life or protect that tanked the hit and now I’m rambling and kinda just saying what has already been said.

I think Archer most likely didn’t know though about the manip.

Alrighty, here is my cycle 1 analysis for Archer. It may be midnight but Idk SE analysis >>> sleep. I hope I did this right.

Archer: Cycle 1 list: infiltrator. Cycle 2 list: Set. Role: Claims to have not Thug, gold ferring or copper ferring.

(Messages are numbered.)

1. Doesn't trust C1 list. says 2/11 elim to village is unlikely. Gives a LG63 summary:

Says LG63 had gold ferring, copper ferring, thug, and nothing. Claims that this has evolved since he has different role. We now know, since vote surpression exists, that this is true, so village points to him.

He does ask @DeTess how the games LG63 and MR65 overlap. I am curious to hear an answer to that question tess.

2. Say Aeoryi is performative for asking if spidering is allowed; states that the meta lines up more with what Araris is saying. Doubts extra lives. Asks deTess about rules. Questions TKN's 1 elim 1 merlin theory. Slight village read on this post.

3. PM's me asking if I am a thug, to which I reply good guess. I read this as fishing so slight Elim vibes from this.

4. Brings up LG63 again, says 2 elim team is unbalanced, most likely has thug, and votes Aeoryi for this. Believes list switches elims. Curious about how people on C2 show up, and if it includes dead people or not. (It does not include dead people). Neutral read on that one.

5. Rejects theory of elims putting up list (which we assume they don't), says E/E stink and Aeoryi is unlikely, Says no reason for village to have thug roles. Says why would gms put him in red on chopping block if he is elim. Asks ravenclaw why he is voting for and against him. Neutral+ read on this. 

6. Is surprised that game has actions. Predicts a kill blocker. States lurchers are better than thugs. Questions TKN's vote on them. Suggests labyrinith for killing for info instead of him. Neutral-- read on this- particularily suggesting killing a vilager looks bad on him.

7. Says e!tess and e!archer are too close for distancing. Claims to have done nothing wrong yet, and that the only thing he did wrong was have his name in red. Defends fishing calls. Susses laby for not denying that he was a infiltrator, (which he wasn't). Says that TNK's statements about archer needing to die are not true. Reads stink as sussing me for spidering. Neutral +, all arguements make sense logically.

8. vreads me and mat. Claims labyrinith pm'd them. Votes TKN. i Village read this since he is quite literally the only person to do reads at that point, showing proactivity.

9. Says that archer being able to E!read is true, reads ravenclaw as going with majority, Says labyrinith's vote on Aeoryi makes no sense. questions mat for the vote on araris over TKN. Neutral read for me.

10. Calls out TKN for a quote. Slight elim read for me but this post doesn't hold a lot of weight.

11. Asks Wandering Wizard'/ reason for voting TKN. susses TKN... again.

12. Last minute switch to Araris, putting him in 2nd.

Overall: Village read, since he has been fairly proactive. He has sound logic behind each of his arguements. I doubt he is an elim, honestly.

For the rest of you, reads will come for you too. But I am tired, and am just going to state where I think everyone's at. (Do tell me if my reads styling is wrong, I've never done this before. Or if my reads are wrong.)

 

Village: Mat, Archer

Mild village: STINK 

Neutral: Detess, JNV, Araris

Mild Elim: Ravenclawjedi, Wandering Wizard,

Elim: TKN (buddy you have some explaining to do), 

 

But I am gonna wait and see if @JNV shows up or not before voting.

[DeTess]

@Experiencewould the following be mentioned in the write-up?

• Someone getting attacked but surviving thanks to an extra life?
• Someone getting attacked but surviving due to some form of protection?

@The Known NovelI really don't like how you repeatedly tried to play off my suspicion of you and Araris as an attempt to kill discussion/deny information while it should have been clear I was running it as a standard D1, acting on any reasonable suspicion I could find rather than jumping on a mechanics-based exe with little discussion behind it. This felt like you were trying to push a narrative rather than try and get reads.

 

[STINK]

Wonder if theres a role / wincon to do with the specific mechanic of having some people be listed as elims in the writeup for seemingly no reason (I know some of you have proposed reasons but it's C2 so also y'know)

[DeTess]

It seems I might have been the one to have stopped the kill from going through. I have a role that blocks the first X actions taken against me (for obvious reasons I won't be telling you how much of this defense is still left). I got it confirmed that any actions blocked this way won't show up in the writeup, so that would explain the lack of kill mentioned in the writeup. I don't get told what exact actions were taken against me though, so I can't be 100% sure I was the kill target, but it does seem likely at this point.

[Archer]

37 minutes ago, DeTess said:

It seems I might have been the one to have stopped the kill from going through. I have a role that blocks the first X actions taken against me (for obvious reasons I won't be telling you how much of this defense is still left). I got it confirmed that any actions blocked this way won't show up in the writeup, so that would explain the lack of kill mentioned in the writeup. I don't get told what exact actions were taken against me though, so I can't be 100% sure I was the kill target, but it does seem likely at this point.

I've never seen a role like that. Would you be willing to tell us the favor?

If DeTess was the NK, I'd like village cred because she's the last person I'd go after. 

E!me probably kills Wiz since they're low info and their voting patterns are annoying to predict and influence. DeTess makes sense for most other people, although I'm surprised Mat wasn't targeted as a less tied to other people option. 

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Wonder if theres a role / wincon to do with the specific mechanic of having some people be listed as elims in the writeup for seemingly no reason (I know some of you have proposed reasons but it's C2 so also y'know)

It feels like that kind if thing that causes a sudden win or loss when there's less players. 

I'm curious about what happens to people who get 2nd in the voting twice in a row. 

Maybe being suspected roleblocks you? 

Mat

I forget my reason for trusting you and I think you should be been NKed instead 

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mat

I forget my reason for trusting you and I think you should be been NKed instead 

Here :D—

Also like that is the least defensible point like cmon now, what am I supposed to say, I’m sorry I’m not dead? :P.

[DeTess]

24 minutes ago, Archer said:

I've never seen a role like that. Would you be willing to tell us the favor?

No, sorry. The role is purely defensive, which is why I'm playing my cards close to my chest right now. Sharing the flavor might lead to some fairly accurate guesses as to how many actions I can dodge in total. If I'm already out, I'd rather the elims assume I'm still capable of taking hits, and if I can still take hits, I'd rather the elims waste another attempt to kill me.

I can share a bit more in a couple more cycles once I believe it should be clear my ability has run out.

[The Unknown Ajah]

6 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Experiencewould the following be mentioned in the write-up?

• Someone getting attacked but surviving thanks to an extra life?
• Someone getting attacked but surviving due to some form of protection?

@The Known NovelI really don't like how you repeatedly tried to play off my suspicion of you and Araris as an attempt to kill discussion/deny information while it should have been clear I was running it as a standard D1, acting on any reasonable suspicion I could find rather than jumping on a mechanics-based exe with little discussion behind it. This felt like you were trying to push a narrative rather than try and get reads.

 

Nuh uh. That is exactly the opposite of what's been going on. I really do not like the way you seem to be trying to twist this. You have consistently been claiming that me and Araris have taken the easy way out that limits discussion. Really don't like this post, but I don't think I'll vote you for it yet because this could just be a misunderstanding. 

[DeTess]

Just now, The Known Novel said:

Nuh uh. That is exactly the opposite of what's been going on. I really do not like the way you seem to be trying to twist this. You have consistently been claiming that me and Araris have taken the easy way out that limits discussion. Really don't like this post, but I don't think I'll vote you for it yet because this could just be a misunderstanding. 

I feel like again pointing out again why I believe that is exactly what your move on Archer would achieve (whether or not that was intentional is a different discussion) would just be beating a dead horse at this point, so let's, for now, assume this was a mutual misunderstanding/disagreement and move on?

[The Unknown Ajah]

I'd agree that this is just an inherent disagreement that kinda stops mattering at this point, so yes, let's agree to move on. 

[DeTess]

quick and dirty reads list

Solid village:

• no one.

mild village: 

• Aeoryi. Effort always looks good in my opinion. It is pretty clear that they have some experience with these kinds of games, despite being new to SE. I'd like to think their elim playstyle would be a bit more subdued as what they are doing now seems to be the opposite of hiding. Not completely convinced on them yet, but I don't want to execute them anytime soon.
• Archer. I am not getting the elim vibes I was getting from them in earlier games,a dn they seems to eb actively working to solve the game, which looks good in my book. Not 100% convince on them yet, but like Aeoryi I don't want to execute them right now.

neutral:

• TKN. Gut says they're evil, but I can't deny their response when I pressed them on their win-con with the implication the village win-con was not to simply kill all the infiltrators was pretty village looking. There where enough red flags that I can't put them any higher just yet.
• wizard: don't like the way they sniped in the tie without any real explanation, but that would only have really looked off if Lab had been evil (though an elim trying to snipe a v!TKN while they were still under suspicion is also a possibility). Don't know enough about their play style to judge how normal their current engagement is.
• @JNV hasn't posted yet. JNV, you with us?

elim leaning:

• Mat: mostly gut here. They felt like they were keeping to the sidelines a bit too much until right at the end of C1. The way he switched votes at the end there might just have been to push engagement as he claimed, but if so, why wait so long to get his initial vote in. Also don't like the way he brought in the lab vote for much the same reason I disliked the archer votes, but at least focussing the mechanic kill on the less present player looks slightly better. Overall seems to have been keeping tot he sidelinbes of D1 too much, which looks off to me.
• Araris: elim leaning for the same reason as I am somewhat suspicious of TKN, but with fewer redeeming factors. Asking for the roleblocker claim is noteworthy as my ability roleblocks, and normally roleblocking is a targeted ability. In other words, a traditional roleblocker would have been able to pinpoint who submitted the kill if they had blocked the kill, so e!araris asking for the claim while thinking it would be right on the money would be a bit odd. But an elim would know that claim was probably nearly inevitable, so eh, maybe mare NAI?
• Stink: mostly on here because they are present but haven't really said anything of note yet, nor have they voted. @STINK, any thoughts?
   

Some other comments: I highly doubt TKN and wizard are on the same team together. Likewise, Archer can't really be evil with either TKN or Araris. Not enough connections like this to really do anything with right now, but it's something I wanted to put down nonetheless

For now I'm putting a vote down on mat.

Edited September 25, 2023 by DeTess

[Aeoryi]

@DeTess, you said on cycle one that the second set of Lg63 rules lined up pretty good with this game. Is this still true? If so, would you be willing to share?

I feel really strange about TKN, but at the moment I'm inclined to agree with them. Idk man, I'll probably do an analysis on TKN.

That's it for now, but there will be more.

[DeTess]

8 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

@DeTess, you said on cycle one that the second set of Lg63 rules lined up pretty good with this game. Is this still true? If so, would you be willing to share?

It doesn't seem to be the case anymore. And as the core mechanic of it would make for a pretty interesting blackout game as long as it remains secret, I will not say more about it.

@ExperienceTwo thing I wanted to check.

• will the game immediately end if the village achieves its win-con?
• Do the red names in the list count for our win-con?

Just a bit paranoid here that we might be facing a game where, to win, we need to go a cycle without voting, thereby clearing all 'infiltrators' from the list. It's not something I really want to test yet though, beyond asking the questions up there.

[Archer]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Here :D—

Also like that is the least defensible point like cmon now, what am I supposed to say, I’m sorry I’m not dead? :P.

Oh yeah Mat

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

No, sorry. The role is purely defensive, which is why I'm playing my cards close to my chest right now. Sharing the flavor might lead to some fairly accurate guesses as to how many actions I can dodge in total. If I'm already out, I'd rather the elims assume I'm still capable of taking hits, and if I can still take hits, I'd rather the elims waste another attempt to kill me.

I can share a bit more in a couple more cycles once I believe it should be clear my ability has run out.

I have theories about time travel but it's probably just something boring about feruchemical charges :/

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

• .
• Araris: elim leaning for the same reason as I am somewhat suspicious of TKN, but with fewer redeeming factors. Asking for the roleblocker claim is noteworthy as my ability roleblocks, and normally roleblocking is a targeted ability. In other words, a traditional roleblocker would have been able to pinpoint who submitted the kill if they had blocked the kill, so e!araris asking for the claim while thinking it would be right on the money would be a bit odd. But an elim would know that claim was probably nearly inevitable, so eh, maybe mare NAI?
• Stink: mostly on here because they are present but haven't really said anything of note yet, nor have they voted. @STINK, any thoughts?
   

Some other comments: I highly doubt TKN and wizard are on the same team together. Likewise, Archer can't really be evil with either TKN or Araris. Not enough connections like this to really do anything with right now, but it's something I wanted to put down nonetheless

For now I'm putting a vote down on mat.

Isn't the play for e!Araris to accept they've been outed and try to identify who the RBer is so they can be swiftly NKed to get rid of the problem? I thinks it's the best of bad options to try to get the most info on what happened at the expense of your already marked for death teammate. I'd wager because he asked it, Araris isn't the one who submitted the NK though. That person would stay quiet until they figured out what we know. 

 

[DeTess]

20 minutes ago, Archer said:

Isn't the play for e!Araris to accept they've been outed and try to identify who the RBer is so they can be swiftly NKed to get rid of the problem? I thinks it's the best of bad options to try to get the most info on what happened at the expense of your already marked for death teammate. I'd wager because he asked it, Araris isn't the one who submitted the NK though. That person would stay quiet until they figured out what we know. 

I agree, I can kinda see that move going both ways really. I'm up for an Araris execution as well, just feel putting some pressure on Mat might be more productive at this point in the cycle.

[Aeoryi]

41 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I agree, I can kinda see that move going both ways really. I'm up for an Araris execution as well, just feel putting some pressure on Mat might be more productive at this point in the cycle.

I seriously want to hear more from @JNV and @STINK. I think it could be likely that we have an Elim hiding in the inactivity tier. 

This lines up with what Archer said about another Elim submitting the kill and then laying low while Araris figures out what goes wrong.

[DeTess]

17 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

I seriously want to hear more from @JNV and @STINK. I think it could be likely that we have an Elim hiding in the inactivity tier. 

It's not impossible, but may I ask why you think so? If we assume two elims than from a pure statistics standpoint it's more likely they are among the remaining 8 players.

Though I very much agree I want to hear more from both.

[Ravenclawjedi42]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

It's not impossible, but may I ask why you think so? If we assume two elims than from a pure statistics standpoint it's more likely they are among the remaining 8 players.

Though I very much agree I want to hear more from both.

I’m not Aeoryi, but to me the fact that neither has posted much makes it seem like there isn’t much of a reason why either of them would be elims, but there isn’t much of a reason why they wouldn’t.

[DeTess]

2 minutes ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

I’m not Aeoryi, but to me the fact that neither has posted much makes it seem like there isn’t much of a reason why either of them would be elims, but there isn’t much of a reason why they wouldn’t.

That was kinda my point. If there is nothing alignment indicative about them, then why suspect one of the elims is among them, when from a purely statistical point of view, it's more likely they aren't?

[Aeoryi]

11 minutes ago, DeTess said:

It's not impossible, but may I ask why you think so? If we assume two elims than from a pure statistics standpoint it's more likely they are among the remaining 8 players.

Though I very much agree I want to hear more from both.

I mean main evidence is the lack of Elim kill, which could be either a hidden mechanic or just lazy (as in inactive) elims. Additionally, I am almost certain that it's two elims for reasons I cannot disclose in this thread, but can be provided in a PM. Also, it isn't uncommon to have elims lurking in the inactivity tiers. An easy way to tell is to look at who is viewing the thread, if you see the same person multiple times lurking without saying anything, could be sus. But I don't want to point fingers at players who haven't posted, but at the same time, I don't want to forget them in the grand scheme of things.

4 minutes ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

I’m not Aeoryi, but to me the fact that neither has posted much makes it seem like there isn’t much of a reason why either of them would be elims, but there isn’t much of a reason why they wouldn’t.

I mean, the more they talk the more we can vouch for them being Elim or Village, so they need to speak up.

EDIT:

@DeTess: In SE games Elims hiding by not posting anything is very common. It would not be the first time this happened

Edited September 25, 2023 by Aeoryi
Respond to DeTess' claims

[DeTess]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

I mean main evidence is the lack of Elim kill, which could be either a hidden mechanic or just lazy (as in inactive) elims. 

Did you see my claim regarding my role? If I did stop the kill that way it wouldn't show up in the writeup, so that's an alternative to the entire elim team being inactive.

[Aeoryi]

Just now, DeTess said:

Did you see my claim regarding my role? If I did stop the kill that way it wouldn't show up in the writeup, so that's an alternative to the entire elim team being inactive.

Wait, okay. I have some questions I need answered first before I can make a conclusion:

1. Can an Elim use their role ability and submit a kill at the same time? I've been currently assuming no for this.

2. @Experience, if someone has an extra life, will it be included in the writeup next day (like tyrian falls)? Or is that (probably) a PAFO?