Mid-Range Game 65: Set on Infiltration

[Araris Valerian he/him]

8 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So for the record, I am not village reading archer off of his appearance in that list. Just like you I think it is completely NAI, so people basing their votes on it looks like picking low-hanging fruit to me, which causes my suspicion.

If you'd like to suggest some other basis for my vote, which was the third post of the game, I'm all ears.

[DeTess she/her]

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If you'd like to suggest some other basis for my vote, which was the third post of the game, I'm all ears.

So are you saying that vote was purely because you wanted to get a vote out, no matter how baseless it might be?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

So are you saying that vote was purely because you wanted to get a vote out, no matter how baseless it might be?

Yes. One of the only ways to get votes with justification early on is to have some unjustified votes floating around first. Or, you know, if someone claims elim or something like that.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

So are you saying that vote was purely because you wanted to get a vote out, no matter how baseless it might be?

(I think it was a poke vote) 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

If you'd like to suggest some other basis for my vote, which was the third post of the game, I'm all ears.

Hm. So labyrinth and archer are the red names? How accurate do we think they are? And is 2/11 (or whatever it is) a good ratio? Seems a bit odd...

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

Yes. One of the only ways to get votes with justification early on is to have some unjustified votes floating around first. Or, you know, if someone claims elim or something like that.

Or if someone conveniently makes a list of all the elims that may or may not be correct but we basically know it isn't.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

Hm. So labyrinth and archer are the red names? How accurate do we think they are? And is 2/11 (or whatever it is) a good ratio? Seems a bit odd...

My guess is the list is completely random and is somehow tied to a game mechanic that is not yet revealed. I'm unclear on the general power level of the roles in this game, but 2 elims with a decently strong role would be balanced, as would 3 elims with the roles leaning more in favor of the village.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

To those asking what a Merlin is, it is a role that knows the identities of the elims, but if the elims guess their identity, the elims win. In this case, the Merlin would know the identity of the hidden elim. I'm not so sure if this will be included in a game with open PMs however.

@DeTess, my logic for my vote is, is there anything better to do? I don’t normally vote d1 because there's to little to base on and I have trouble forming suspicions quickly. But in this case, there are two people that as far as I know, I want to die. If they're village, too bad, we would have killed a villager anyways, but they could actually be elims. So why not?

Also, if we kill a non-infiltrator today, then we will only know what happens if we leave the red names alive, but if we kill Archer today, we'll see how he flips, and we'll see what happens to the still alive Labyrinth. 

I'm mostly just kinda curious why you're so against it, it's not like d1 exes actually normally kill an elim, so why not follow the only lead we have, which will also give us basically twice as much information as the other way around.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

My guess is the list is completely random and is somehow tied to a game mechanic that is not yet revealed. I'm unclear on the general power level of the roles in this game, but 2 elims with a decently strong role would be balanced, as would 3 elims with the roles leaning more in favor of the village.

Or the "merlin" whatever that means. But lore-wise, it doesn't really make sense to have Infiltrators, Set members AND a third party. What would the third party be called? It doesn't make sense in this scenario.

I still am a firm believer that the list is made by the lynched person. 

[Mat he/him]

Hey Aeoryi-- do you have any previous mafia experience, forum or otherwise? You seem to have an unusually good handle on what is going on  

Just now, Aeoryi said:

I still am a firm believer that the list is made by the lynched person. 

Then what would the current list, be? The theory doesn't really work because we have a list without having exed anyone. In game characters RPd by the GM don't count :P.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

What would the third party be called? It doesn't make sense in this scenario.

Historically, games set in the second era of Mistborn have had Kandra as independent factions. This game seems a bit small for that, but it's a possibility.

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

6 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

(I think it was a poke vote) 

I don't think you quite understand what a poke vote is. A poke vote is a vote placed d1 on someone who hasn't posted, or has only posted once in order to attempt to get more activity out of them. Poke votes are normally removed when the target responds. As such, all evidence points to it not being a poke vote.

[Aeoryi she/her]

38 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey Aeoryi-- do you have any previous mafia experience, forum or otherwise? You seem to have an unusually good handle on what is going on  

Then what would the current list, be? The theory doesn't really work because we have a list without having exed anyone. In game characters RPd by the GM don't count :P.

I read a few tyrian falls games (the AN ones) before playing this. That and I played mafia a bit for a while a few years ago.

The current list apparently is written by the D0 lynch. It was mentioned it was written by him in the writeup 

36 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I don't think you quite understand what a poke vote is. A poke vote is a vote placed d1 on someone who hasn't posted, or has only posted once in order to attempt to get more activity out of them. Poke votes are normally removed when the target responds. As such, all evidence points to it not being a poke vote.

I totally thought a poke vote was just a vote to get a reaction out of someone, or promote d1 discussion 

EDIT:

@Araris Valerian, what is normally the Win con for the Kandra? 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Aeoryi
Ask what the Kandra do

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

@Araris Valerian, what is normally the Win con for the Kandra?

Usually Kandra are some kind of serial killers, which this game seems a little small for. 

[STINK he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey Aeoryi-- do you have any previous mafia experience, forum or otherwise?

I was sat here for like a good 2 minutes wondering if I missed out on a good name change from someone or if I just missed out on someone with a grasp on things glad I wasn't the only one thinking this tbh

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

I was sat here for like a good 2 minutes wondering if I missed out on a good name change from someone or if I just missed out on someone with a grasp on things glad I wasn't the only one thinking this tbh

That wasn’t it, but you’re welcome?

2 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

I read a few tyrian falls games (the AN ones) before playing this. That and I played mafia a bit for a while a few years ago.

The current list apparently is written by the D0 lynch. It was mentioned it was written by him in the writeup 

Makes sense, cool

Yeah, but idk how likely it is that a NPC did something that’s an actual mechanic. It’s possible, of course, but would be weird imo

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That wasn’t it, but you’re welcome?

Makes sense, cool

Yeah, but idk how likely it is that a NPC did something that’s an actual mechanic. It’s possible, of course, but would be weird imo

I mean, it is completely possible. Having a brand new mechanic show up day 2 would be very very very weird and would seem unfair, so introducing it on day 1 makes way more sense 

2 hours ago, STINK said:

I was sat here for like a good 2 minutes wondering if I missed out on a good name change from someone or if I just missed out on someone with a grasp on things glad I wasn't the only one thinking this tbh

[Archer he/him]

We don't necessarily need a third party for a Merlin. The previous game had a Sequence, which was a member of the Suits. But their main ability was 1 on 1 anonymous communication with people, which makes it easy to reveal alignments if they know them. 

I remain concerned about the idea of thugs existing in a two elim distro. The only way that balances is with an e!thug.

I suspect Aeoryi is a thug, since they think they're more likely to be present than vote manip. So my vote follows: Araris Aeoryi

(why no 'u' in your name?) 

Independent of my knowledge of my alignment, I'd be curious about the possibility of a rotating elim team. The elims for the round are publicly declared, then it's on the players to notice the obvious before they lose. 

I'm also curious whether dead people will appear on the C2 list. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

We don't necessarily need a third party for a Merlin. The previous game had a Sequence, which was a member of the Suits. But their main ability was 1 on 1 anonymous communication with people, which makes it easy to reveal alignments if they know them. 

I remain concerned about the idea of thugs existing in a two elim distro. The only way that balances is with an e!thug.

I suspect Aeoryi is a thug, since they think they're more likely to be present than vote manip. So my vote follows: Araris Aeoryi

(why no 'u' in your name?) 

Independent of my knowledge of my alignment, I'd be curious about the possibility of a rotating elim team. The elims for the round are publicly declared, then it's on the players to notice the obvious before they lose. 

I'm also curious whether dead people will appear on the C2 list. 

You suspect me for thinking [thugs] are going to be more likely than vote manip? 

Well, it just makes more sense that extra life roles tend to be distro'd more often than other roles (that and smoker, which probably won't be in this game). Tyrian falls, which happens to be full of lurchers, thugs and smokers. Especially when there is less people, a 2 elim team with both or one thug(s) seems a little powerful. 3-4 lives versus (more than) 9 lives is super winnable for elims, and makes it so parity is ultra easy to reach, considering that 3 mislynches or missed Vilage kills could basically cost the game.

So basically if the elims have thug roles then the village probably does as well, to balance things a bit.

As for the elim rotating thing, that seems kinda odd in an rp sense. Why would infiltrators be switching lore-wise? It just doesn't make sense.

I mostly think that either the lynchee or the elims get to write the list, although the latter is where I am leaning as of late.

[Mat he/him]

58 minutes ago, Archer said:

Independent of my knowledge of my alignment, I'd be curious about the possibility of a rotating elim team. The elims for the round are publicly declared, then it's on the players to notice the obvious before they lose

That doesn’t feel like the kind of theory that can exist without knowledge of your alignment :P.

[DeTess she/her]

edit: oops, pressed enter too soon. Actual post will be edited in in a bit.

11 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

I'm mostly just kinda curious why you're so against it, it's not like d1 exes actually normally kill an elim, so why not follow the only lead we have, which will also give us basically twice as much information as the other way around.

I am not against Archer getting executed. What I am against is Archer (or labyrinth) getting executed for the sole reason that their name is red in that list. The reason for that has to do with the fact that, even though D1 exe is often a miss, it cans till give us information alter in the game, especially if several people were up for the exe. You can often look back at what happened that day and if elims got involved find motives. However, if we simply dog-pile on one of the reds then the only thing we can get from it is a hint to the meaning of the list, which, we could get C2 as well if the list changes.
The reason I am saying that would be the only thing we gain is because everyone else can simply say 'wel they were red, I don't like reds' when pressed on their D1 vote, which makes me very suspicious of anyone jumping on a vote with a built-in alibi like that and no further reasons for doing so. It's perfect cover for elims, and I'd expect slightly more digging from villagers D1.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Independent of my knowledge of my alignment, I'd be curious about the possibility of a rotating elim team. The elims for the round are publicly declared, then it's on the players to notice the obvious before they lose. 

Agree with Mat that this is a very odd thing to suggest for someone currently red...
@Aeoryi, let's go with Archer's hypothesis of two elims with 1 thug for a moment. How much protection would you think the village has in that case? Protection being both extra lives and protect type roles?

Edited September 24, 2023 by DeTess

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

@DeTess, well, it's pretty clear that is far from the case. Me and Araris are practically the only ones going after Archer, and everyone else is neutral or against us. Perhaps your point was valid initially, but can you really still say we're stalemating discussion or making an excusable vote (I know those weren't your exact words, but that seems to be the gist)? I doubt most elims would hold up under the pressure me and Araris have been under without hedging.

18 minutes ago, DeTess said:

However, if we simply dog-pile on one of the reds then the only thing we can get from it is a hint to the meaning of the list, which, we could get C2 as well if the list changes.

I would argue we will get much more information from exing Archer than we would from not. The list could be effected by all sorts of things, maybe it only updates when a Red dies. I don't actually believe that, but it's possible. I think that any information we would get c2 without exing Archer we will still get, but also we will potentially get more and more useful information as well.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

@DeTess, well, it's pretty clear that is far from the case. Me and Araris are practically the only ones going after Archer, and everyone else is neutral or against us. Perhaps your point was valid initially, but can you really still say we're stalemating discussion or making an excusable vote (I know those weren't your exact words, but that seems to be the gist)? I doubt most elims would hold up under the pressure me and Araris have been under without hedging.

Given that you both made those votes very early, before it became clear that your opinion wasn't shared by the thread: yes, I do think I can still make that argument. Just because time has passed sine then doesn't mean I can't still suspect that as the motive when you posted. As for holding up under pressure, I think we both know that if you backed off when challenged like this, without a good alternative to move too, it would look more suspicious, not less.

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

I would argue we will get much more information from exing Archer than we would from not. The list could be effected by all sorts of things, maybe it only updates when a Red dies. I don't actually believe that, but it's possible. I think that any information we would get c2 without exing Archer we will still get, but also we will potentially get more and more useful information as well.

So, hypothetical scenario: C2 the list shifts and two other people are shown as red. And this happens independently of Archer getting executed or not. What kind of additional information would the archer exe give us?

[Ravenclawjedi42]

7 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

You suspect me for thinking [thugs] are going to be more likely than vote manip? 

Well, it just makes more sense that extra life roles tend to be distro'd more often than other roles (that and smoker, which probably won't be in this game). Tyrian falls, which happens to be full of lurchers, thugs and smokers. Especially when there is less people, a 2 elim team with both or one thug(s) seems a little powerful. 3-4 lives versus (more than) 9 lives is super winnable for elims, and makes it so parity is ultra easy to reach, considering that 3 mislynches or missed Vilage kills could basically cost the game.

So basically if the elims have thug roles then the village probably does as well, to balance things a bit.

As for the elim rotating thing, that seems kinda odd in an rp sense. Why would infiltrators be switching lore-wise? It just doesn't make sense.

I mostly think that either the lynchee or the elims get to write the list, although the latter is where I am leaning as of late.

I do think this argument seems to work better if you do already have knowledge of your alignment. Of course, that’s no guarantee. We can vote for multiple people, correct? If so, I vote Aeoryi and Archer.

[Archer he/him]

On 23/09/2023 at 9:26 AM, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

Huh. This is strange. I honestly doubt that either of the infiltrators are actually infiltrators. Perhaps the infiltrators got to pick who would be presented as such?

I don't think it's a plausible theory. It requires the elim team being on and aware of their alignment before the game began. Not only is elims getting more time to prep than the village a rare mechanic, it's also vulnerable to a team that doesn't check their PMs earlier than they're supposed to messing it up. 

15 hours ago, STINK said:

I was sat here for like a good 2 minutes wondering if I missed out on a good name change from someone or if I just missed out on someone with a grasp on things glad I wasn't the only one thinking this tbh

Ae and Stink aren't e-e, noted. 

8 hours ago, Aeoryi said:

You suspect me for thinking [thugs] are going to be more likely than vote manip? 

Well, it just makes more sense that extra life roles tend to be distro'd more often than other roles (that and smoker, which probably won't be in this game). Tyrian falls, which happens to be full of lurchers, thugs and smokers. Especially when there is less people, a 2 elim team with both or one thug(s) seems a little powerful. 3-4 lives versus (more than) 9 lives is super winnable for elims, and makes it so parity is ultra easy to reach, considering that 3 mislynches or missed Vilage kills could basically cost the game.

So basically if the elims have thug roles then the village probably does as well, to balance things a bit.

As for the elim rotating thing, that seems kinda odd in an rp sense. Why would infiltrators be switching lore-wise? It just doesn't make sense.

I mostly think that either the lynchee or the elims get to write the list, although the latter is where I am leaning as of late.

The thug theory relies on 2 elims, aligning with the C1 alignment distro. So that's 3 lives, without the voting edge of having three elims. That works in an 11 player game.

Parity isn't simple to reach, because there's only two of them. If we get all mixes, we're looking at 9:2 to 7:2 to 5:2 to 4:2 to lose, which is actually better for our chances than 8:3 to 6:3 to 4:3 to lose. 

And there's no reason the village needs to have thug roles as well. In a small game, repetition of roles isn't necessary. 

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That doesn’t feel like the kind of theory that can exist without knowledge of your alignment :P.

oh dear, my burning desire to be the first person to correctly 'guess' the answer to the mystery made me decide to out myself and give up a pivotal secret for temporary clout

Or I'm just spitballing here, even if I know it's wrong. Take your pick 

6 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

@DeTess, 

I would argue we will get much more information from exing Archer than we would from not. The list could be effected by all sorts of things, maybe it only updates when a Red dies. I don't actually believe that, but it's possible. I think that any information we would get c2 without exing Archer we will still get, but also we will potentially get more and more useful information as well.

I see where your coming from. I think the best counter argument to that is it's predictable that the C1 exe goes this way, so why would the GM put e!me in this position? If it blows up in their face, that's practically bastard GMing 

17 minutes ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

I do think this argument seems to work better if you do already have knowledge of your alignment. Of course, that’s no guarantee. We can vote for multiple people, correct? If so, I vote Aeoryi and Archer.

Traditionally, no. You can't vote for multiple people. Your vote is probably just on me right now, since GMs usually take the last vote listed. 

Edit: I get voting me, but why me AND Ae? I'm voting Ae, so why vote with me? 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Archer

[Ravenclawjedi42]

50 minutes ago, Archer said:

I don't think it's a plausible theory. It requires the elim team being on and aware of their alignment before the game began. Not only is elims getting more time to prep than the village a rare mechanic, it's also vulnerable to a team that doesn't check their PMs earlier than they're supposed to messing it up. 

Ae and Stink aren't e-e, noted. 

The thug theory relies on 2 elims, aligning with the C1 alignment distro. So that's 3 lives, without the voting edge of having three elims. That works in an 11 player game.

Parity isn't simple to reach, because there's only two of them. If we get all mixes, we're looking at 9:2 to 7:2 to 5:2 to 4:2 to lose, which is actually better for our chances than 8:3 to 6:3 to 4:3 to lose. 

And there's no reason the village needs to have thug roles as well. In a small game, repetition of roles isn't necessary. 

oh dear, my burning desire to be the first person to correctly 'guess' the answer to the mystery made me decide to out myself and give up a pivotal secret for temporary clout

Or I'm just spitballing here, even if I know it's wrong. Take your pick 

I see where your coming from. I think the best counter argument to that is it's predictable that the C1 exe goes this way, so why would the GM put e!me in this position? If it blows up in their face, that's practically bastard GMing 

Traditionally, no. You can't vote for multiple people. Your vote is probably just on me right now, since GMs usually take the last vote listed. 

Edit: I get voting me, but why me AND Ae? I'm voting Ae, so why vote with me? 

Oh. Then Archer. I was voting for both of you because while I highly doubt you are both infiltrators, there are reasons why I suspect both of you, and I think at least one of you are. As such, I don’t really care which one of you ends up voted out, but I would like it to be one of you.

[Mat he/him]

Wiz