Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't think it's a WGG either, not yet, but I'm not entirely discounting the idea. Plus it lets us look for who'd shoot Kas first. Like Alvron might.

Oh and FWIW - I don't feel I'm a natural Alvron kill.

Edited to add:

Aloha, as I know you're on B&W Kindle - not voting here, just bolded the name so it jumps out.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Imma be honest, Mat is forgetting something and it's making me wonder if that makes him more likely to be a Villager or not.

Don't do this to me man I just read the rules front-to-back three times and I have no idea what you're talking about ;-;

[Alvron]

29 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't think it's a WGG either, not yet, but I'm not entirely discounting the idea. Plus it lets us look for who'd shoot Kas first. Like Alvron might.

I would never kill Kas within the first 3-4 cycles of a LG.  Having said that, I also wouldn't push too hard against my team if they felt killing Kas was better than targeting another.  Working together is more important than keeping a former fellow elim alive.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Don't do this to me man I just read the rules front-to-back three times and I have no idea what you're talking about ;-;

Suppose I did use a Spellbook.

Suppose also that I'm a Villager. If that's true, then the only correct or reasonable move for me to have made with the Spellbook is to have made my target redirect to themselves. This way, I get an Elim to kill themselves. (There's also a world in which I get one target to hit another suspect but let's just say I'm not that spicy, that's more Fifth and Drake. As you might remember from MR61  )

If my target redirected the kill to themselves, they should have died. But they did not. The fact they did not implies they survived, which means that Broken Survivors should've triggered and we should have seen a second insane player, unless they have Iron Will (I think? IDK.) Or unless this was their Silver Bones guy I guess. The fact you're not remotely thinking about extra insanity in this world makes me wonder if there's an element of TMI going on here, but maybe in a good way. IDK.

If I didn't manage to redirect an Elim, even worse because now we have to explain yet another survival and another player who didn't trigger Broken Survivors.

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

I would never kill Kas within the first 3- cycles of a LG.  Having said that, I also wouldn't push too hard against my team if they felt killing Kas was better than targeting another.  Working together is more important than keeping a former fellow elim alive.

Thank you, Ghostblood Bro, I said as much <3

[Ashbringer he/him]

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can you explain how replacing those players would decrease activity?

Two friends you thought were playing but then suddenly weren't would certainly be jarring for me, at least.

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Oh and FWIW - I don't feel I'm a natural Alvron kill.

Maybe not. But it works for now. I might go look at things later.

[DeTess she/her]

@Elandera, would the pallid mask blocking a kill result in insanity, as it prevents the action rather than allowing for survival?

@Kasimir running on my knowledge from last day, if I could have self-pressed on mat I would have. I could also seeing myself voting archer if there would have been enough votes on them. Maybe even if there hadn't been.

@ArcherI asked during the night, but you had not responded yet. Why exactly did you break the tie last cycle?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Suppose also that I'm a Villager. If that's true, then the only correct or reasonable move for me to have made with the Spellbook is to have made my target redirect to themselves. This way, I get an Elim to kill themselves. (There's also a world in which I get one target to hit another suspect but let's just say I'm not that spicy, that's more Fifth and Drake. As you might remember from MR61  )

If my target redirected the kill to themselves, they should have died. But they did not. The fact they did not implies they survived, which means that Broken Survivors should've triggered and we should have seen a second insane player, unless they have Iron Will (I think? IDK.) Or unless this was their Silver Bones guy I guess. The fact you're not remotely thinking about extra insanity in this world makes me wonder if there's an element of TMI going on here, but maybe in a good way. IDK.

If I didn't manage to redirect an Elim, even worse because now we have to explain yet another survival and another player who didn't trigger Broken Survivors.

So does that mean you did use a spellbook? If you did but didn't redirect the killer, that goes back to the kill hit a silver boned/kill was roleblocked/elims didn't want to risk Shades. Do you learn why you went insane?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So does that mean you did use a spellbook? If you did but didn't redirect the killer, that goes back to the kill hit a silver boned/kill was roleblocked/elims didn't want to risk Shades. Do you learn why you went insane?

You're not told why you went insane, only that you went insane, hence my general confusion about what's happening.

[Mat he/him]

Ah. Tbh, just wasn't thinking that deep about it, only was considering the very immediate implications. But I also don't see why you couldn't have just said you didn't use a Spellbook :P.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah. Tbh, just wasn't thinking that deep about it, only was considering the very immediate implications. But I also don't see why you couldn't have just said you didn't use a Spellbook :P.

Because I am kind of wondering if someone else did, tbh  

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity / @Araris Valerian - You're the maths people here. Credences that I really just got unlucky with the 5%?

Edited to add 2:

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So does that mean you did use a spellbook? If you did but didn't redirect the killer, that goes back to the kill hit a silver boned/kill was roleblocked/elims didn't want to risk Shades. Do you learn why you went insane?

I'll note that in a world where I did use a spellbook, I should probably tell the thread at some point because of the odds I redirected the kill.

@Matrim's Dice - Are you told if you lose Silver Bones? Because Elan did say survivals wouldn't be mentioned but it feels odd to not know if you have an extra life or not.

Edited to add 3:

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah. Tbh, just wasn't thinking that deep about it, only was considering the very immediate implications. But I also don't see why you couldn't have just said you didn't use a Spellbook :P.

Oh and because I think it has implications for your alignment in a few worlds, mostly.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Alvron]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity / @Araris Valerian - You're the maths people here. Credences that I really just got unlucky with the 5%?

As someone who dabbles in Luck and Chance from time to time, I feel the odds are quite good in someone going insane.

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity / @Araris Valerian - You're the maths people here. Credences that I really just got unlucky with the 5%?

There's a 5% chance you got really unlucky :P. Not sure what other maths there are. Buuuut then again I'm certainly no math guy (though I do like all my math classes)

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice - Are you told if you lose Silver Bones? Because Elan did say survivals wouldn't be mentioned but it feels odd to not know if you have an extra life or not.

I was directly told that I no longer had Silver Bones, yes.

[DeTess she/her]

@Kasimirassuming no iron will odds of no one going insane are about 42%. Put another way, though your individual odds are only 5%, odds that at least one person would go insane are better than even, so I don't think you being insane guarantees you must have been attacked. And if you had been, I see no reason why you wouldn't claim, irrespective of alignment.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Kasimirassuming no iron will odds of no one going insane are about 42%. Put another way, though your individual odds are only 5%, odds that at least one person would go insane are better than even, so I don't think you being insane guarantees you must have been attacked. And if you had been, I see no reason why you wouldn't claim, irrespective of alignment.

I'm going to repeat again the rule clarification which you can ask @Elandera yourself: you're not told if you're attacked. I wish I knew, but I don't  

Edited to add:

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was directly told that I no longer had Silver Bones, yes.

I think I see how she's finessing this. If you are a Thug or have a protect item or anything that's oneshot, you're told if you lose it. If you're a sad peon like me, then you just don't know what happened and get annoyed at not knowing >>

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm going to repeat again the rule clarification which you can ask @Elandera yourself: you're not told if you're attacked. I wish I knew, but I don't  

Oops, missed that. That's a bit annoying then, as it means we might never learn for sure who got attacked.

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Oops, missed that. That's a bit annoying then, as it means we might never learn for sure who got attacked.

If it hit someone with Silver Bones or a protect item, according to Mat, they should know insofar as they lost the item. But then it's also worth that player coming forwards, so we know what is going on.

Edited to add:

16 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Kasimirassuming no iron will odds of no one going insane are about 42%. Put another way, though your individual odds are only 5%, odds that at least one person would go insane are better than even, so I don't think you being insane guarantees you must have been attacked. And if you had been, I see no reason why you wouldn't claim, irrespective of alignment.

In your view, does this make it more likely that what went off was a redirect or a roleblock? Since the odds of no one going insane are about 42% if we discount Iron Will?

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

@DeTess, if Pallid Masks stop an attack, it still results in insanity.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

@DeTess, if Pallid Masks stop an attack, it still results in insanity.

In summation, it seems to me that if we postulate I was protected or that the kill was deflected one way or another, we have to postulate that the kill hit someone with <Iron Will and a protective item/protection> or Silver Bones. This accounts for the missing insanity. Alternatively, we postulate the kill was RBed entirely. 

I was going to be coy for a while and just play along with everyone's suggestions in the hopes of sensing if anyone had TMI but I think the fact I don't even know if I was attacked pretty much implies what I'll just come out and say. I didn't use a Spellbook, am not a Thug, and don't have a protective item so honestly anyone's guess on what happened is as good as mine. Hopefully this means we can at least rule out some bad answers here.

I do think the most parsimonious answer is the kill was RBed, FWIW.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir
Justification

[DeTess she/her]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

In your view, does this make it more likely that what went off was a redirect or a roleblock? Since the odds of no one going insane are about 42% if we discount Iron Will?

Only other option I'm seeing is silver bones, though of course 42% isn't super low odds, so it could still have been on you, alternatives is just more likely. If someone does claim to have RB'd someone and no one comes forward with missing silver bones I'd be down to lynch the one that got blocked.

@Elanderahow does iron will interact with broken survivors?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

Only other option I'm seeing is silver bones, though of course 42% isn't super low odds, so it could still have been on you, alternatives is just more likely. If someone does claim to have RB'd someone and no one comes forward with missing silver bones I'd be down to lynch the one that got blocked.

@Elanderahow does iron will interact with broken survivors?

FWIW, she clarified it stops Broken Survivors when I asked which is why I feel that in any deflection or protection world, the player who got hit must have had Iron Will and protection, or Silver Bones.

Edited to add:

Also agree with DeTess here - from what I can tell:

-Elims likely have some kind of Shade protection. Cf. Elim dissatisfaction last game and the ah, spectacular PM reading skills of Araris. Very likely the Shade-protected Elim made the kill. Said Elim was also likely to have Iron Will.

-In the world where someone protected me (or someone else), I think (this one I'd hesitate on, not fully sure), it's worth claiming. @Elandera, are Shade Experts told if they can no longer protect? (This would of course be the situation in which they successfully deflect the NK.) The trade-off is that the Shade Expert can't absorb a kill anymore, but I would at least lean Village on them because losing their Shade protection to WBG is a heavy sacrifice for the Elims to make.

-If the Elims hit someone else (whether through a deflection or just choice), it's worth knowing, because you will likely have lost your extra life/protect item, so there's no real sense in keeping quiet for this one. Main combinations here are <Padding + Iron Will>, with Padding being one of <Pallid Mask, Elder Sign Pendant.> The alternative is Silver Bones. Both of these are expended.

-If there are no survivors claiming, then the odds are just down to RB or redirect. Again, I lean RB for parsimony, but agree it could also be a redirect (in this case, Return to Sender, rather than a Deflection, due to the lack of a claimed survivor.)

-So yeah, I think the target of a RB or redirect is a good lead that's worth following. 

Edited to add 2:

I don't deny there's a world in which the kill was deliberately withheld but that's the MO of specific players, including (ironically), Devo, Alv et al. I also ascribe low probability to this world.

Edited to add 3:

Needless to say, but I will also come out and say it anyway, I do not have Iron Will. (Tbf if I had, probably would not have gone insane either way, meaning in the world where I was attacked and protected, I'd never have known o_O)

Although I am Seraphimon, I am also a cute and weak-willed Patamon at heart <3

Spoiler

Back to the solving grind, I need to re-read the thread but that's after some sleep/recovery.

Edited to add 4:

FWIW, there's probably a sub-world in which one of < @|TJ|, @The Last Fæ > got hit, was meant to be a low profile kill, but then they're here so rarely we never heard about it. If it's one of the two of you, it'd be good to know. It'd also likely implicate Devo, which...is a possibility I'm re-examining after today's thread.

Edited to add 5: Sorry, to clarify: TJ, I know you're short on time so this isn't an ask for analysis though that'd be great. This is a straight-up "can you please confirm if you were hit by a kill" question that doesn't require you to backread the entire thread.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir
Justification

[Elandera she/her]

Let me clarify a few things.

Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. 

You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. 

Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences.

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Let me clarify a few things.

Any form of protection or roleblock that stops an attack, no matter where in the OoA, will cause Broken Survivors unless specifically stated otherwise. 

You will always be informed if you lose an ability, role, or item. 

Iron Will prevents Broken Survivors as it is not their own action that caused it. I believe in this ruleset, the only form of insanity it does not protect against is using the spell book. Previous iterations had more actions with insanity consequences.

Just to get my understanding of the rules clear:

#2 implies that if I do not lose an ability, role, or item, e.g. as a regular, when I survive an attack due to external forces, I'm not told anything, correct?

Mat gets told because if he survives via Silver Bones, he loses SB so he's informed of the loss, not the survival.

(I'm highly confident this is the correct read since I was incredibly put out and flummoxed not to know why I went insane, or if I was attacked, but I'd like a direct clarification if my understanding is correct so we can stop going in circles about points that you've already previously clarified.)

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

9 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 

Ash

Why Ash? You wanted to kill them last Day too and I wasn't sure what the case was there

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

>>

Smh.

Judging y'all.

Edited to add:

Kasimir might have been attacked! He was Seraphimon!

Makes sense if not because of the obvious, but because you mentioned getting a PM. 

Edit: now I'm confused. If Kas wasn't attacked, who was NKed? 

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

 

You think I'd shoot Kas first? 

Also immediately assuming the Elims wouldn't WGG Kas is precisely why WGGing is a strategy.

I think you can guess who'd shoot Kas first. In fact, I request it! 

.... nah

8 hours ago, DeTess said:

@Elandera,... 

@ArcherI asked during the night, but you had not responded yet. Why exactly did you break the tie last cycle?

Sorry, I didn't quote you in the response because I was lazy. The gist of it was that my self pres options were you and Mat, and I'd come to the conclusion Mat is village. I'm working on getting better at self identifying when I'm wrong, which was helpful in this case. Just not a lot if you're village too. But that's a social constraints problem because I lacked true agency under the circumstances. 

 

Kas, what does you bring insane actually do to you then? 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Kas, what does you bring insane actually do to you then? 

...It makes me sign up for SE games and not sub out despite running a 39 degree fever and having COVID. Whee!

Oh. Sorry you mean game insanity.

Can't vote, can't take Day action, immune to insanity for two cycles thereafter unless I do something incredibly kayana like read a Spellbook. Warmmha says suffer not witches to- oh huh.

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

.... nah

Well the main gap in that strategy is that I don't even know if I was attacked as we're only told if it affects an intrinsic ability/item you have, so.

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Makes sense if not because of the obvious, but because you mentioned getting a PM. 

Smh. People need to appreciate PMs more.

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Edit: now I'm confused. If Kas wasn't attacked, who was NKed? 

Because I am neither a Thug nor do I have a protective item (this is significant because) - I am not told if I was attacked. So the options are, thusly:

1. Kas was protected by a Shade Expert.

Shade Expert will be told they lost the ability. Kas knows nothing because he is secretly Jon Snow. Because Kas lacks Iron Will, Broken Survivors triggers and Kas goes insane. In this world, because the protection attacks the Elim making the kill, the Elim making the kill also must have had Silver Bones or Silver Dust/Shade Expert protection and Iron Will. Because no one else went insane.

2. The Elims attacked someone else. Sub-worlds to follow. Note that this covers two types of scenarios, where the Elims deliberately targeted that player or where the Elim was redirected.

i. That player has a protective item and has Iron Will or has Silver Bones.

In this world, the player knows they were attacked because they lost the item or Silver Bones. They should tell us in order to clarify this issue. They must have a protective item (Elder Sign Pendant or Pallid Mask) and Iron Will because they did not go insane - Broken Survivors didn't trigger. Or Silver Bones.

ii. That player was protected by a Shade Expert.

This is a variant of World 1 with the same analysis, but in my view, requires a number of factors to align. The player who was protected must have had Iron Will to avoid Broken Survivors. The Shade Expert's retaliatory protection should have also taken out the Elim making the kill, which entails that the Elim making the kill must also have has Silver Bones or Silver Dust/Shade Expert protection and Iron Will. Because no one else went insane.

3. The Elims were roleblocked.

Probably the most straightforward world. I go insane because I'm incredibly unlucky, and the/a White Fox stops the kill.

4. The Elims withheld the kill.

Devo was the one to mention this, probably because her team played kill denial before. As did Alv and your team, Archer. Unlikely but I don't want to completely exclude this as an option because this would upset Drake after our conversations about MO in LG83  I go insane because I'm incredibly unlucky.

[Kasimir he/him]

Oh and while we wait -

Devo

I know my vote doesn't count but damnit let me exercise my civic duty >>

Edited to add:

Holding off on Mat as I think there are implications for his alignment that are fundamentally dependent on our picture of what went down.

Edited to add 2:

Reminder that while in two worlds, we have a player who targeted an Elim, we still need to vote, analyse, and keep up momentum while trusting players with Village-relevant information will come forward.

My re-read nudges me more towards Devo in terms of low engagement involvement.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Kasimir