Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Thoughts on an Araris train?

Eh. My impression I got from rereading his posts is that he’s busy, so that would dirty Plus I do like his call for vote transparency and his Archer vote looked solid enough

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Eh. My impression I got from rereading his posts is that he’s busy, so that would dirty Plus I do like his call for vote transparency and his Archer vote looked solid enough

In all fairness, I don't really know that one expects a simple, uncomplicated tell from you, especially once you yourself are aware of it and have seen it mentioned, but can't blame a guy for trying  And yeah, I normally have to be fast-talked into agreeing with a D1 on Araris no matter what.

Still low key feeling the  though. Maybe it'll Digivolve eventually!

Ah well.

[JNV]

Hey just popping in to say I have a concert tonight so I probably wont be able to get on later tonight sorry as consolation take this art I found of a quokka luxuriating on a hoard of watermelons no I dont know why watermelons I just found it in the quokka image search

Spoiler

Ill skim the thread and if I have time Ill come back and give thoughts but its not likely bye bye 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, JNV said:

Hey just popping in to say I have a concert tonight so I probably wont be able to get on later tonight sorry as consolation take this art I found of a quokka luxuriating on a hoard of watermelons no I dont know why watermelons I just found it in the quokka image search

  Reveal hidden contents

Ill skim the thread and if I have time Ill come back and give thoughts but its not likely bye bye 

Break a leg! Or arm. Or larynx. Whichever is relevant!

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hey just popping in to say I have a concert tonight so I probably wont be able to get on later tonight sorry as consolation take this art I found of a quokka luxuriating on a hoard of watermelons no I dont know why watermelons I just found it in the quokka image search

  Reveal hidden contents

Ill skim the thread and if I have time Ill come back and give thoughts but its not likely bye bye 

Have a supportive Patamon!

Spoiler

 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Have some sweet Rottweiler pups! 

Spoiler

 

[Archer he/him]

5 hours ago, DeTess said:

Five is too many elims for a 17 player game in my experience. It would give the players only three mislynches in total, and if there is any sort of killing role or ability (like say, the crossbows), if it hits a villager once it cuts another mislynch. (two cycles with mislynches of kill + a crossbow shot killing a villager would put us at Lilo).

longish game + multiple mechanics = distro flexibility    I'm side-eying that level of confidence in a particular number in the context of e!you last game being fairly focused on elim mechanics

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

I'll be signing off for the rest of the cycle here. please don't execute me .

oh well now I can't vote for you

5 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

I think the part of Mat that gets annoyed and hyperreacts to suspicion is still triggered by the Mobborn, despite it being a pseudo village. But I don't entirely remember how reactive he was.

As a player, I was treating them as pseudo elims. They were a minority faction with their own communication channel whose existence threatened mine. 

1 hour ago, Sart said:

WiM definition please. Discussion of Aman seems to be centered on that term, but I don't know its meaning.

Derp clear for not asking this in the elim doc

1 hour ago, The Known Novel said:

Less so now, but he wasn't feeling as elim to me as he seemed to be to everyone else. He was feeling pretty normal Mat reactivity levels, but then he did one post in particular that felt like "ehhhh, I don't like that," so now I'm mostly neutral on him.

I'm very split on Mat, and it mostly stems from his post about 'bad jokes equals votes *shocked Pikachu face*'. The two tells I've got for him are he gets annoyed when you used the wrong formula to get the right answer when he's evil, and he does village busywork (eg ISOs, reads lists) to hide disengagement. Unfortunately, e!he probably course corrected any mistakes after last game, but his engagement has seemed more natural this game. 

When CTRL+Fing to read Mat posts, I noticed that TKN's comment history so far has only consisted of talking about/to Alpha and Mat. My current theory is TKN decided early on that they will vote this round (which was a big decision for them), chose Mat, and has been self-conscious about that decision, making them focus on it in their posts. Along the way they fooled me into voting for poor innocent Mat with their tricksy guiles. It's either that or it's e!Mat, v!TKN, but this theory sits better with me. TKN

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

longish game + multiple mechanics = distro flexibility    I'm side-eying that level of confidence in a particular number in the context of e!you last game being fairly focused on elim mechanics

oh well now I can't vote for you

As a player, I was treating them as pseudo elims. They were a minority faction with their own communication channel whose existence threatened mine. 

Derp clear for not asking this in the elim doc

I'm very split on Mat, and it mostly stems from his post about 'bad jokes equals votes *shocked Pikachu face*'. The two tells I've got for him are he gets annoyed when you used the wrong formula to get the right answer when he's evil, and he does village busywork (eg ISOs, reads lists) to hide disengagement. Unfortunately, e!he probably course corrected any mistakes after last game, but his engagement has seemed more natural this game. 

When CTRL+Fing to read Mat posts, I noticed that TKN's comment history so far has only consisted of talking about/to Alpha and Mat. My current theory is TKN decided early on that they will vote this round (which was a big decision for them), chose Mat, and has been self-conscious about that decision, making them focus on it in their posts. Along the way they fooled me into voting for poor innocent Mat with their tricksy guiles. It's either that or it's e!Mat, v!TKN, but this theory sits better with me. TKN

I'm not voting Mat. And I'm sorry my three posts this game have concerned two people. I referenced my Mat feelings because I unvoted him the same post I voted him, then Kas asked me about him.

[Mat he/him]

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

Derp clear for not asking this in the elim doc

I'm very split on Mat, and it mostly stems from his post about 'bad jokes equals votes *shocked Pikachu face*'. The two tells I've got for him are he gets annoyed when you used the wrong formula to get the right answer when he's evil, and he does village busywork (eg ISOs, reads lists) to hide disengagement. Unfortunately, e!he probably course corrected any mistakes after last game, but his engagement has seemed more natural this game. 

That’s a bad read imo. When has that ever actually been right? It’s not an elim specific term. There’s no reason e!Sart would have chosen the doc instead of the thread, especially given there are more people to answer the question in the thread.

It wasn’t a surprised pikachu, it was a  and clearly just banter. You also never pointed out where I was annoyed, which was what your me votes allegedly were, not from TKN.

DeTess, Archer. Still willing to exe DeTess, probably Ash too, idk on anyone else.

• Steel (1): Alpha
• DeTess (1): Sart
• Mat (2): DeTess, Aman
• Archer (3): Araris, TJ, Mat
• Aman (1): Kas
• TKN (1): Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

44 minutes ago, Archer said:

longish game + multiple mechanics = distro flexibility    I'm side-eying that level of confidence in a particular number in the context of e!you last game being fairly focused on elim mechanics

oh well now I can't vote for you

As a player, I was treating them as pseudo elims. They were a minority faction with their own communication channel whose existence threatened mine. 

Derp clear for not asking this in the elim doc

I'm very split on Mat, and it mostly stems from his post about 'bad jokes equals votes *shocked Pikachu face*'. The two tells I've got for him are he gets annoyed when you used the wrong formula to get the right answer when he's evil, and he does village busywork (eg ISOs, reads lists) to hide disengagement. Unfortunately, e!he probably course corrected any mistakes after last game, but his engagement has seemed more natural this game. 

When CTRL+Fing to read Mat posts, I noticed that TKN's comment history so far has only consisted of talking about/to Alpha and Mat. My current theory is TKN decided early on that they will vote this round (which was a big decision for them), chose Mat, and has been self-conscious about that decision, making them focus on it in their posts. Along the way they fooled me into voting for poor innocent Mat with their tricksy guiles. It's either that or it's e!Mat, v!TKN, but this theory sits better with me. TKN

I completely don't understand this post and I'm the sick guy here :/

Where was this when TKN actually voted Stick D1 in LG93?

I can be talked into E!TKN but I completely don't understand this line of thought at all.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It wasn’t a surprised pikachu, it was a  and clearly just banter. 

That's the conclusion I've arrived at, yes. So, slight update, this whole time I thought the sequence of events was you post, TKN votes you, then in my head I'm like, that's a reasonable point, Mat is interacting a lot with a poke vote. Good observation, TKN. 

Turns out Alpha is the one that voted you. So this Mat obsession I attributed to TKN isn't as inflated as I thought it was. TKN

I'm out of suspects I actually feel comfortable C1ing. Please standby as I try to come up with something other than mild agreement that I make the most sense to exe right now  :D. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I have... a lot of diversions right now. Like that essay I need to start by yesterday. But TKN and Kas feel right to me. A lot of people seem to think Mat is reacting while TJ calls Mat out as calm - maybe that's a sign that Mat's counteracting himself or that TJ isn't seeing the same things. Aman and Archer... hard to say. E!Aman is scary but thread control can be hard to identify. E!Araris might go for more thread control. 

Who does that leave? A lot of faces in the dark. Like mine.

I like the arguments on DeTess though. And some things aren't worth much whispered.

 

 

[Elandera she/her]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

If players use VitC to push through a hammer, what will we see?

The names will appear as they voted in the thread and the numbers will be adjusted to match the end result.

EDIT: 

Additionally, rollover may be slow tonight. I started getting sick last night and now my brain is in a fog.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Elandera

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Additionally, rollover may be slow tonight. I started getting sick last night and now my brain is in a fog.

Sick buddies  Gws!

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I'm out of suspects I actually feel comfortable C1ing. Please standby as I try to come up with something other than mild agreement that I make the most sense to exe right now  :D. 

Is this  Archer.

[Kasimir he/him]

Last thoughts before I pray the meds take me for good because I've had enough of suffering:

Quote

Steel (1): Aloha
DeTess (2): Sart, Ash
Mat (2):  DeTess, Aman
Archer (3): Araris, TJ, Mat
Aman (1): Kas

-Archer;'s vote still weirdly elastic about Mat and IDK what the TKN thing was about so ok. Sort of want to  a bit for that sentence there though - feel E!Archer is a bit more pushy but not confident enough of this line of thought in current state.
 

-Bah. No. Not making progress. Gonna try to be back before rollover to puzzle this out instead of staring blankly.

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is this  Archer.

I’ve been talking myself into a MatTunnel™ and now the problem is that I don’t know whether to take that as a sign that he’s village :|

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’ve been talking myself into a MatTunnel™ and now the problem is that I don’t know whether to take that as a sign that he’s village :|

Define MatTunnel here please.

Honestly I feel I have probably been too willing to pass something off as a V read. Just not sure what. Lessons learned from LG93 and all that. Was too willing to pass bad things off as Elims won't do that. But my brain isn't cooperating anymore. 

Main thing holding me back from you, well I've spelled it out.

For DeTess, I feel disagreement with Archer comes from V perspective. Feel Elims more likely think of speedbumps in rules. Not confident of this because DeTess and Mobborn discussion was off but not mere fact of discussion. Was DeT taking deliberate imma focus on Mobborn but also think we shouldn't stance. Contradictory. Then LHF Alpha. Opportunist maybe.

For Archer, sort of like statement I flagged. Also vague TWTBAW vibes from weird TKN case but that got me into trouble in LG93. Sometimes cigar is cigar. Also anon voting. Doubt failure to self pres will persist. 

Idk. Feels likgoing in nonstop circles rn.

I wish SE wasnt this hard. S2g some games feel like brainblock/fog.

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Define MatTunnel here please.

Elim read stemming from one point that snowballs with every subsequent post regardless of what it is. The difference between this game and the MR is that I’m conscious of it, probably because I wasn’t in the last :P.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 hours ago, DeTess said:

This assumes that every player can be around just before roll-over, which is not a good assumption. For me it would be around 6 AM, and I have no intention of being up and awake enough to figure out who to vote that early on the regular.

This is true, noted.

With regards to elim numbers, five is high but there's also a high probability of an elim dying to Shades. I'm pretty sure Elandera is counting on at least one pure mechanics kill since there's at least 12 villagers in this game. She did last time and gave the elims a shade expert (which protected players from shades, as opposed to this game where it can no longer protect players twice in a row but is more village-aligned since it can protect players from kills and attack in retaliation) to compensate. Let's see. If it's 12-5 and the elims get a perfect game: no dead elims, no crossbow or shade expert deaths, no silver bones survivals, they need four kills so 1-(0.95*0.9*0.85*0.8)~=42% of being attacked by shades.  The actual percentage will likely be higher. Still, 4 and an ability that protects from Shades seems more likely since it messes with votes and win cons less.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Wasn't that Mobborn, i.e. pseudo-Village Mat?

Mobborn definitely isn't village. There's an even stronger sense of 'If I get exed, my faction suffers' than as an elim.

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Whatcha think @Devotary of Spontaneity?

Fascinating. I think the elims want the votes to be close. Contested votes are especially valuable to them if they can get a bunch of villagers up for the exe since it's so easy for vote manipulation to throw suspicions around. I'd expect scattered elim votes, especially early on.

I'd prefer not to exe Archer C1 twice in a row.

[Tea Leaf]

Uhm... who should I vote for? Fae I can do that, right? *Gulp* So... any Elims want to reveal yourselves? I would be very happy.

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

Uhm... who should I vote for? Fae I can do that, right? *Gulp* So... any Elims want to reveal yourselves? I would be very happy.

You’re… voting yourself?

Forgot that Archer was just D1d somehow, even though that was the whole reason I didn’t convert him >> Maybe that doesn’t make a difference to me. How many votes does DeTess have now?

Edited April 27, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Elandera she/her]

One hour left for votes and actions!

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm pretty content with my vote on Mat tbh. Had expected to draw a tunnel from my naked vote / putting him in the lead, but that didn't happen.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’ve been talking myself into a MatTunnel™ and now the problem is that I don’t know whether to take that as a sign that he’s village :|

I got mild e vibes from the post, but I also tend to lean too hard into OMGUS votes. But then I am right more often than not with them, so /shrug.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I got mild e vibes from the post, but I also tend to lean too hard into OMGUS votes. But then I am right more often than not with them, so /shrug.

Any possibility you can elucidate why?