Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

46 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

But unless the game is ending this cycle, that doesn't matter. We have 3 people to kill (if we ungenerously include myself), and 2 exes plus a NK in the next cycle and a half.

Yep

Well 4, if we also include Wizard, and personally I would include Wizard before including Aman

But regardless yes we can kill you D10 if we really get that far

I predict we won't but who knows

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maybe the part where I've been advocating for JNV's death for multiple days has something to do with it.

it does yes  you've pulled a 180 and I think it's very suspicious under the circumstances!

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I still wish you'd answer why you didn't kill them last night. As far as I'm concerned, JNV should already be dead three or four times over. For some reason, you've refused to do that.

sir this is not a defense

you are right

i agree you are right >>

but it still isn't a defense

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm voting Araris over JNV because Araris allegedly can't be NKd and therefore is the better exe option-- which I remind you was your logic initially, not mine. The beginning of the turn I mentioned that I prefer a JNV vote based on vibes but was submitting to that reasoning, and I still hold to that.

well sure but I changed my mind about it

its true that Araris is harder to kill but that only matters if Araris is probably evil and you haven't really weighed in on that very much

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I personally am not swayed by Wiz's overly convenient scan and am sticking to the PoE.

and JNV's scan isn't overly convenient?

51 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nothing has changed for me, reads wise, which has been true for days at this point.

(Also JNV's vote, yeah )

maybe you can maintain that your reads have stayed the same and that you haven't pulled a 180, but in practice it sure seems like your willingness to vote JNV has correlated with the number of votes JNV has

and likewise JNV has voted for you but only as an isolated vote

this falls pretty squarely within my expectations of E/E distancing

like yes you have a reasonable sounding explanation for why you might do what you are doing as a villager but the elim motivations for doing it are imo much, much stronger

Edit:

13 minutes ago, JNV said:

You know what lets make this easier JNV Im curious about that cursed cat video its clear the Matrim vote isnt going anywhere and the rest of you seem to have this well in hand now for some actual last words do not stand at my grave and weep I am not there I do not sleep I am a quokka in a tree forever young forever free

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Spoiler

(this post does not improve my evaluation that you are an elim but I do appreciate going out in style)

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Mat he/him]

16 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

it does yes  you've pulled a 180 and I think it's very suspicious under the circumstances!

I haven't pulled a 180, my reads haven't changed. It isn't my fault the JNV kill suddenly isn't as useful as it was yesterday, or the day before, or the day before.

18 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

you are right

i agree you are right >>

Do you? Because you still didn't answer the question.

13 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

its true that Araris is harder to kill but that only matters if Araris is probably evil and you haven't really weighed in on that very much

I mean I have the same base PoE as everyone else with the one difference of me not being in it which shifts my priorities somewhat, no? Araris is higher shifted in priority for me. So I care about whoever is easier/harder to kill. I suppose this reasoning only qualifies if you v read me over Araris.

18 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

and JNV's scan isn't overly convenient?

It is-- again, I don't suddenly think JNV is likely village-- but it's also less relevant as Bip is dead.

19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

this falls pretty squarely within my expectations of E/E distancing

like yes you have a reasonable sounding explanation for why you might do what you are doing as a villager but the elim motivations for doing it are imo much, much stronger

Does being this obvious about it fall in your expectations? The elim motivations for doing it are only stronger if I'm elim.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Oh whoops I totally forgot about the Fae/Wizard scan and how it fits into things

Good grief I've really been overthinking this game haven't I

>>

I should have just listened to the sacred numbers instead of repeatedly ignoring them >>

So, I feel a bit silly but also this actually substantially increases the confidence of my current prediction

 

Let's make this simple:

I predict that the complete elim team lineup is Tani, Sart, Steel, (optional +1 dead player), JNV, Matrim.

And what's more I challenge anyone to either name a single possible elim team lineup other than this one that doesn't require copious amounts of tinfoil to function, or to point out why this particular lineup is actually implausible, because rn I honestly have doubts that anyone will be able to

Edited February 21, 2023 by DrakeMarshall
typo

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I predict that the complete elim team lineup is Tani, Sart, Steel, (optional +1 dead player), JNV, Matrim.

This… makes a whole lot more sense than e!Ada.

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

And what's more I challenge anyone to either name a single possible elim team lineup other than this one that doesn't require copious amounts of tinfoil to function, or to point out why this particular lineup is actually implausible, because rn I honestly have doubts that anyone will be able to

I could see that minus me, which I guess we’ll see later tonight  But honestly I don’t see how e!Araris requires more tinfoil than e!me/JNV, both require subversion of scans, but at this point you can just hit Araris D10 if needs be and that’s fine, my death won’t mean a loss. Probably. Obviously I prefer you test Araris/exe me D10 since e!Araris might be legitimately NKable, but it likely won’t make a difference.

Though it is still unbelievable to me how you did not yet answer my question

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But honestly I don’t see how e!Araris requires more tinfoil than e!me/JNV, both require subversion of scans,

The latter requires no subversion, just the two of you being teamed. Whereas Wiz, who scanned me, has been scanned himself. Not to mention the help he gave to Ada and Drake with coordinating defense. If the elims have any disruption abilities left, they most certainly haven't given us any indication that's the case. And I think I've reasonably demonstrated both of my roles at this point, which should lower CV credences if you want to go there.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

*forgets to follow thread again*

Mat

[|TJ| he/him]

Okay a quick summary since I've been out pls? 

If v!JNV, e!Mat ONLY if Mat is "Confirmed Good" elim. Else, it's v/v

If e!JNV, then he could have lied about Mat being good and could have said the truth for village cred. 

If e!Mat, 100% e!JNV. 

Warning, we need to have 4 votes on a play to prevent a last minute hammer on Kas/Fifth if it was 3-3. 

Has both Aman's roles been proved?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

Has both Aman's roles been proved?

Nah, my only successful Goalkeep was on Silho N1 when I asked to be Trolled and no one did.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Nah, my only successful Goalkeep was on Silho N1 when I asked to be Trolled and no one did.

What was all the coordinated protection between you, Wiz and Drake then?

Edited February 21, 2023 by |TJ|

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

What was all the coordinated protection between you, Wiz and Drake then?

Goalkeeper's can't protect themselves, so I Trolled Drake to protect me. Wizard had a PM with both of us so he was our intermediary

Edited February 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Goalkeeper's can't protect themselves, so I Trolled Drake to protect me. Wizard had a PM with both of us so he was our intermediary

Ah okay got it. Insane paranoid theory. This is a very clever version of WGG, where you actually Trolled Drake and he actually turned his attack to a protect for you, but you are evil and did not submit a kill to prove you were attacked :P. 

edit: wait no, you actually had someone from you team submit a kill on you because the write up said you were attacked but still not removed iirc.

Edited February 21, 2023 by |TJ|

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Ah okay got it. Insane paranoid theory. This is a very clever version of WGG, where you actually Trolled Drake and he actually turned his attack to a protect for you, but you are evil and did not submit a kill to prove you were attacked :P. 

Well, removed elims can submit kills, which you revealed fairly early, and also I was attacked both times  but sure. I could have unnecessarily WGG'd myself twice in a row and keep Drake from shooting villagers that aren't me, effectively wasting 4 kills that would have brought me closer to victory otherwise

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Well, removed elims can submit kills, which you revealed fairly early, and also I was attacked both times  but sure. I could have unnecessarily WGG'd myself twice in a row and keep Drake from shooting villagers that aren't me, effectively wasting 4 kills that would have brought me closer to victory otherwise

okay fine you didnt have to shoot down my theory so quickly smh :P. also I STILL don't know why y'all killed Fae omg. 

Then yeah Wiz, Araris, Aman and Drake are village. It's down to Mat and JNV. 

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

also I STILL don't know why y'all killed Fae omg. 

^This is me with Archer, Bip as well xD JNV is the way! I'm kinda just thinking the game will end after that but if not then I can still help you guys figure it out from beyond the grave

[|TJ| he/him]

Quote

Steeldancer (4): Archer, Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, The Known Novel
Walin(4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Steeldancer, TJ

Wait, this was Orlok's Tie Guy right?

Archer, Ashbringer, Drake, TKN, Mat, Shining, Steel, TJ 

I'm village, Ash was NKed. Drake is CS. TKN used up his extra vote, likely village. Steel is evil. 

Archer, Mat, Shining - There's one evil here. 

Do any of you think otherwise to my PoE? And do any of you think it's Archer or Shining over Mat? Why aren't we voting Mat?

[Amanuensis he/him]

idr if I voted but JNV i guess.

don't think game will end but at this point we're just clearing poe

ED1T:

Just now, |TJ| said:

Why aren't we voting Mat?

He's my preferred target but I believe the logic is JNV scanned Mat green, right? e!Confirmed Elim Mat could get away with that, but then he'd also show up as village in the Tie Guy, right? We don't really know how that interacts for certain, so the most likely world in which e!Mat exists is also where e!JNV exists. Plus there's the reality you've acknowledged in the past where e!JNV gave us a free v!Mat clear. And that Drake will just kill Mat tonight anyway.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

I still think Shining could be evil, idk. Archer I personally village read and was really confused when he was killed over... almost anyone else but maybe I was just dead wrong. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

If the game continues into D10 with Metalcognition, The Wandering Wizard, and DrakeMarshall as the F3, my money is on Drake tbh

Edited February 21, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Mat

Drake

[|TJ| he/him]

Me: What about Mat guys?
Guys: *votes on anyone BUT Mat*

xD

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'd rather vote Mat but someone killed me...

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'd rather vote Mat but someone killed me...

Do you not have your extra vote? -.-

[Ashbringer he/him]

I've got it, but there's not much point in using it against the group, no... 

Bah. If the Elim is within JNV/Matrim/Araris we should be fine, but doing that needs a lot of pseudo-mayoring and getting dead people back from the dead.

 

But please consolidate on one of those so we don't get hammered

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Bah. If the Elim is within JNV/Matrim/Araris we should be fine, but doing that needs a lot of pseudo-mayoring and getting dead people back from the dead.

If I'm elim then you pretty much also have to believe that Wiz is elim, or that there is a living elim Troll currently, who didn't attempt to interfere with Ada/Drake the last two cycles.