Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If I'm not willing to consider E!Hael or E!Stick at this stage, he's one player I'd consider sharp enough to make a snipe, functionally.

The problem as you point out is that if we are running with the snipe hypothesis, we need someone who knows JNV, Wiz, and Devo enough to make those calls. 2/3 accuracy isn't shabby. Agreed with Stick it'd be loltastic if it were random but I'm not sure that's what I'd work with right now.

My pool of players IMO who could have made that shot, ignoring credences, would be:

<Devo, Fifth, you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

Bookwyrm, I think, hasn't been around enough still.

Obviously:

Subtract Devo and Fifth, they're dead Village.

<you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

Subtract you.

<Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

If we are ignoring bus worlds for now, we subtract Stick, Hael, me.

N.B. I've italicised me because yes and no - I'd probably have a smooth time deanonymising IC, IDK about my accuracy if we look at the thread.

<Xino, TUN, Mat>

I read Mat V still.

<Xino, TUN>

?

That's what I'm left with, as options.

 

My main point of defense to this is that I suck at linguistic analysis. I don't know that's what you think I'm doing, but it's the case. I took like three cycles after you basically said you were Kas before I realized you were Meerkat, and I've barely ever guessed who's who, let alone gotten it right. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Unknown said:

My main point of defense to this is that I suck at linguistic analysis. I don't know that's what you think I'm doing, but it's the case. I took like three cycles after you basically said you were Kas before I realized you were Meerkat, and I've barely ever guessed who's who, let alone gotten it right. 

I would be assuming you are looking in the thread for clues, TBH.

If we're on this, question for you. I'm looking at your LG91 posts right now: do you recall who in your team unmasked Cinnamon as V!Coinshot?

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

My main point of defense to this is that I suck at linguistic analysis. I don't know that's what you think I'm doing, but it's the case. I took like three cycles after you basically said you were Kas before I realized you were Meerkat, and I've barely ever guessed who's who, let alone gotten it right. 

I buy this  But I don't think this means you can't be an elim with someone else making those calls

edit:

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I'm looking at your LG91 posts right now: do you recall who in your team unmasked Cinnamon as V!Coinshot?

LG90?

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I would be assuming you are looking in the thread for clues, TBH.

If we're on this, question for you. I'm looking at your LG91 posts right now: do you recall who in your team unmasked Cinnamon as V!Coinshot?

Mat, I believe. One of the others might have also been a fan of the idea. I was probably most doubtful.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

LG90?

No. My argument is that we should have seen more positive thread presence and contribution from V!TUN by now, as I recall from QF62 and MR59 - it's what swung me towards thinking E!TUN in LG90.

I am trying to get a sense of whether this is a correct line of thought to have by comparing to LG91 as that was V!TUN as well and I don't have a strong memory of anything that happened after I died.

I am asking him, since he is here and I can't pursue two lines of inquiry at once, if he remembers who on his team IDed Cinnamon because I'm wondering if it was him or Mat.

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ IMO V!TUN isn't thread dominant but tends to make valuable observations. Conserves his ammo I guess.

Edited to add 2:

Cf.

I tend to see V!TUN as making these sorts of sparse but helpful interjections. Just found one but I'm continuing to read up to his point of death for reference.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

I see @xinoehp512. I don't see @NerdyAarakocra.

Xino, do you have anything valuable to add?

[Stick. she/her]

Okay I don't intend to stay up till 5 am again so I'm gonna go maybe and but if xino flips village can we all agree to consider Nerdy next? I might consolidate the exe on xino at EoD if the vibes say yes

edit:

wait never mind I dont think the votes are tied anymore due to TUN's vote. In that case I might tie them by unvoting.

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay I don't intend to stay up till 5 am again so I'm gonna go maybe and but if xino flips village can we all agree to consider Nerdy next? I might consolidate the exe on xino at EoD if the vibes say yes

No kidding... >>

Sleep damnit

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

Mat, I believe. One of the others might have also been a fan of the idea. I was probably most doubtful.

You are correct from what I can see: Mat IDs it and the others follow it. He notices it in her RP:

Quote

Any ideas on possible coinshots? The only thing I got is Cin’s RP which isn’t much

Better than nothing, but how to ensure that a coinshot shoots. Hmmm

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

He did say he'd move to xino 

@The Bookwyrm have you made your decision yet?

I think I'm going with Nerdy.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay I don't intend to stay up till 5 am again so I'm gonna go maybe and but if xino flips village can we all agree to consider Nerdy next? I might consolidate the exe on xino at EoD if the vibes say yes

e!Nerdy clears me so I don't mind. They could very well be an elim and maybe I'm just overestimating the slightly-better-than bare mininum.

ED1T:

I guess another problem of mine, I can't see anyone who's partnered with Nerdy specifically. Meanwhile, Bookwyrm/Xino credences skyrocket

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

@Ookla the Unknown - Question for you. Would you actually consider LG91 a departure from typical V!TUN? I ask because I'm on N4 and I think you're driving thread more than my mental model has typical you doing. In which case maybe I shouldn't be looking there as I recall you saying you were experimenting that game.

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay I don't intend to stay up till 5 am again so I'm gonna go maybe and but if xino flips village can we all agree to consider Nerdy next? I might consolidate the exe on xino at EoD if the vibes say yes

Question for you.

If C2 EoD is V/E, would you go with E!Mat?

If not (EoD, rather than Mat), then for anyone remotely considering C2 EoD aren't we functionally committed to the idea that whether through low thread presence or as a committed strategy, the Elims are simply playing a strategy of indifference?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I tend to see V!TUN as making these sorts of sparse but helpful interjections. Just found one but I'm continuing to read up to his point of death for reference.

It's very odd that he hasn't put out a single statement as such this game.

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

No kidding... >>

Sleep damnit

You're one to speak xD

3 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

I think I'm going with Nerdy.

Yass thank you for conforming to my team hypotheses

Quote

E!xino world: <Silver, xino, Bookwyrm> with an optional <Mat>

V!xino world: <Silver, Nerdy, Almond, TUN/Hael?>

Bookwyrm voting xino would have crumbled this

[Amanuensis he/him]

(4) Nerdy: Stick, Xino, Unknown, Bookwyrm, 
(2) TUN: Kas, Mat(t),
(1) Xino: Aman,

I feel like Kas and I are the only Nerdy resistance rn and that doesn't seem like a good sign. ED1T: Even Nerdy isn't resisting.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If not (EoD, rather than Mat), then for anyone remotely considering C2 EoD aren't we functionally committed to the idea that whether through low thread presence or as a committed strategy, the Elims are simply playing a strategy of indifference?

Because:

Either there was a half-bus from Hael (he tied Silver and Nerdy, meaning it wasn't a full bus, and then I widened the gap by going Nerdy RIP), or you committedly bused Silver, or I did, or:

If we are running with V!Mat, we just have to postulate the Elims didn't care about the votestate for whatever reason, or had no ability to, and screwed off at EoD.

And TUN watched and did nothing.

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

(2) TUN: Kas, Mat(t),

Lmao xD

Edited to add:

Sorry, rather, you half-bused Silver as well, and I committedly did.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[InfiniteInsanity she/her]

My mind is struggling to process much of y'all's long posts but for the most part everyone is going back and forth between Xino and Nerdy. Right now I see the Xino one more than the Nerdy one. So Xino.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, InfiniteInsanity said:

My mind is struggling to process much of y'all's long posts but for the most part everyone is going back and forth between Xino and Nerdy. Right now I see the Xino one more than the Nerdy one. So Xino.

Sorry for my constant pushing you last game Insanity o7 I hadn't realized you were a newer player until the game was almost finished.

Also sorry for my contributions to the long post backlog. Please let us know if you have any questions. We're all here to figure things out together

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If C2 EoD is V/E, would you go with E!Mat?

If not (EoD, rather than Mat), then for anyone remotely considering C2 EoD aren't we functionally committed to the idea that whether through low thread presence or as a committed strategy, the Elims are simply playing a strategy of indifference?

I don't think I'm going with E!Mat ever probably

It's looking more and more plausible, yeah. See I'm not as opposed to e!xino as it might seem to the thread, I'm just more about flipping nerdy. However, like I said I'll help out with the xino exe if it means we get to resolve nerdy one way or another. TUN flipping v leaves us right where we are now doesn't it? Whereas a xino/Nerdy exe clears/condemns the other.

edit

I NEED TO GO TO SLEP U_U

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

I don't think I'm going with E!Mat ever probably

It's looking more and more plausible, yeah. See I'm not as opposed to e!xino as it might seem to the thread, I'm just more about flipping nerdy. However, like I said I'll help out with the xino exe if it means we get to resolve nerdy one way or another. TUN flipping v leaves us right where we are now doesn't it? Whereas a xino/Nerdy exe clears/condemns the other.

edit

I NEED TO GO TO SLEP U_U

THEN GO TO SLEP V_V

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry, rather, you half-bused Silver as well, and I committedly did.

FWIW Stick, I'd argue in Bus World that you and Hael rock the best of both worlds, while last minute bussing is a poor strategy for me, but we know I'm biased  

If we assume there was a bus: you and Hael get V credit if he flips but preserve the chance he doesn't as a tie. If you're risk-friendly, that's not really the worst EoD, especially since people might drive for Silver again. Like your Bookwyrm point in LG91 EoD, where you felt there was no way V!Stick defends Bookwyrm then doesn't vote to defend Bookwyrm EoD, consequences be damned: you did commit to casing Silver so I could see E!you feeling that the fact you are on at EoD requires you to vote Silver but also holding back and trying to refuse it until it's too late. I don't get that risk distribution, unless you argue I waited until it was almost foregone 50/50 then made it confirmed.

That being said, I still favour my V!Stick and V!Hael credences, but this crossed my mind and there's no harm in saying it, so I did.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It's looking more and more plausible, yeah. See I'm not as opposed to e!xino as it might seem to the thread, I'm just more about flipping nerdy. However, like I said I'll help out with the xino exe if it means we get to resolve nerdy one way or another. TUN flipping v leaves us right where we are now doesn't it? Whereas a xino/Nerdy exe clears/condemns the other.

I'm not either, it's just that since I can be on nearer to EoD, I want to keep discussion broader. In the world we are drastically wrong about the Elim candidates, narrowing like this helps no one.

I think there are decent reasons for at least thinking about TUN at this point and applying pressure. If they evolve into better reasons, I'm happy to turn that into an EoD vote. If not, no.

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I NEED TO GO TO SLEP U_U

SLEP DAMNIT >>

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Unknown - Question for you. Would you actually consider LG91 a departure from typical V!TUN? I ask because I'm on N4 and I think you're driving thread more than my mental model has typical you doing. In which case maybe I shouldn't be looking there as I recall you saying you were experimenting that game.

Votewise, certainly. Otherwise, no.

There may have been an overabundance of interaction due to more people discussing my votes, I guess.

[Mat he/him]

I was the one that caught CS!Cin, yeah.

To summarize Nerdy:

e!Nerdy gives us-- Hael/Stick/Kas as options, solving the problem of no veteran elim if that's a problem at all. It also I think gives more reason to v!read TUN because he could have bussed and didn't, as well as Aman because he could have just stayed on Silver. And this clears xino.

v!Nerdy gives us-- a reinforcing of Hael/Stick/Kas as clears (with the ever lingering paranoia, of course :P), and higher e!TUN credences because he refused to touch the trains either way. Also higher e!Aman chances.

So [Hael/Stick/Kas] looks worse with an e!Nerdy and better with a v!Nerdy, and [TUN/Aman] looks worse with a v!Nerdy and better with an e!Nerdy.

Is that something that's generally agreed upon? I think this seems like a good balance between info killing and suspect killing.

Nerdy

Edited December 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was the one that caught CS!Cin, yeah.

To summarize Nerdy:

e!Nerdy gives us-- Hael/Stick/Kas as options, solving the problem of no veteran elim if that's a problem at all. It also I think gives more reason to v!read TUN because he could have bussed and didn't, as well as Aman because he could have just stayed on Silver. And this clears xino.

v!Nerdy gives us-- a reinforcing of Hael/Stick/Kas as clears (with the ever lingering paranoia, of course :P), and higher e!TUN credences because he refused to touch the trains either way. Also higher e!Aman chances.

So [Hael/Stick/Kas] looks worse with an e!Nerdy and better with a v!Nerdy, and [TUN/Aman] looks worse with a v!Nerdy and better with an e!Nerdy.

Is that something that's generally agreed upon? I think this seems like a good balance between info killing and suspect killing.

Nerdy

You mention e!Nerdy clearing Xino. Why don't you mention Xino in a v!Nerdy world? 

[Kasimir he/him]

Quick and dirty until later:

RAW

C1:

Quote

Kas (3): Dannnnnex, Nerdy, Xino
Dannnnnex (6): Kas, Aman, JNV, Silvereye, Hael, Bookwyrm
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo
No Vote (5): TUN, Insanity, Almond, Stick, Wiz

This is useful. We now know that the D1 side-trains were very much pure. This means that we expect a high concentration of Elim votes in No Vote, Danex, not so sure about me.

C2:

Quote

Nerdy (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman
Silver (5): Wizard, Devo, Hael, Stick, Kasimir
Aman (3): Insanity, Fifth, Matrim
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond
No Vote (?): TUN, Silver

I am not sure if I expect the Silver train to be pure, TBH. But I also come back to the fact Silver felt confident enough to sign off without making a single protection vote. Why not?

C3:

Quote

Aman (2): Fifth, Aman
Fifth (5): TUN, Stick, Almond, Bookwyrm, Mat
Xino (4): Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael
No Vote (2): Xino, Insanity

At these numbers, unless Xino and Insanity are our Elims, I feel odds are high we have at least one Elim on Fifth (wow so clever Kas wow ffs) 

Honestly I look at the raw data and I really don't mind narrowing to a <Xino, Nerdy> flip. They're our black holes.

The purity of the end-Aman train makes me wonder. I need to look at the C3 voteshifts but this won't happen until later.

WITH CREDENCES

C1:

Quote

Kas (3): Dannnnnex, Nerdy, Xino
Dannnnnex (6): Kas, Aman, JNV, Silvereye, Hael, Bookwyrm
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo
No Vote (5): TUN, Insanity, Almond, Stick, Wiz

My credences commit me to a low Elim investment C1. There's just no reason to care about the trains. Might suggest votes that didn't move, or a concentration in No Vote, not sure.

C2:

Quote

Nerdy (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman
Silver (5): Wizard, Devo, Hael, Stick, Kasimir
Aman (3): Insanity, Fifth, Matrim
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond
No Vote (?): TUN, Silver

I am honestly suspicious of commitment to a pure Silver train which may indicate there's an error in my thinking. I also dislike the Xino-Bookwyrm pair on Nerdy.

C3:

Quote

Aman (2): Fifth, Aman
Fifth (5): TUN, Stick, Almond, Bookwyrm, Mat
Xino (4): Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael
No Vote (2): Xino, Insanity

My credences do commit me to a more pure train on Xino, less pure on Fifth. Which fits with my V/E thoughts at the moment.

Anyway:

Xino

Y'all are killing Nerdy one way or another with/out my help, I'm cool with that but I also think Xino still looks sus.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

You mention e!Nerdy clearing Xino. Why don't you mention Xino in a v!Nerdy world? 

Because I don't remember there being a connection between xino/Nerdy other than Nerdy's consistent votes, so in a v!Nerdy world it'd just be Nerdy's read and that doesn't necessarily mean anything striking for xino's alignment. I didn't really feel the need to point out that it didn't mean anything for xino so I didn't :P.

Kas, I assume you don't ascribe to the belief that e!xino = e!me and etc? I'm not sure how to feel about that other than I know I'm not evil, so if I believe it, xino's cleared. I don't know where that notion came from though or the reasoning behind it; I don't know why xino apparently can't be evil with anyone but me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because I don't remember there being a connection between xino/Nerdy other than Nerdy's consistent votes, so in a v!Nerdy world it'd just be Nerdy's read and that doesn't necessarily mean anything striking for xino's alignment. I didn't really feel the need to point out that it didn't mean anything for xino so I didn't :P.

Kas, I assume you don't ascribe to the belief that e!xino = e!me and etc? I'm not sure how to feel about that other than I know I'm not evil, so if I believe it, xino's cleared. I don't know where that notion came from though or the reasoning behind it; I don't know why xino apparently can't be evil with anyone but me.

Possible I'm too committed to a E/E/V C2 EoD, but I don't understand how you can believe in the e!Nerdy world and not the e!Xino world. What has Xino done or not done to be more village than Nerdy?

It's very much possible that Xino can be E and not you. I'm dumb for not realizing that Xino's teammates would have already been voting Fifth, and thus couldn't make a difference, so it's not like it confirms you as e!Xino's savior.

ED1T:

@Matrim's Dice To further clarify, I think it originally came up when I pointed out how quiet C3 EoD was and that you were the only late voter. As said above, Xino's teammates could have already been voting Fifth, so it doesn't guarantee e!you.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis