Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Mat he/him]

I was about to say I should never break another tie as long as I live but if Nerdy is village I saved us a kill 

Course if he’s elim, rip.

Should clear me and Kas for sure. Probably Aman too. Points either to inactive elims completely or someone who wants us to think it’s that, which I guess unclears us :P.

[Haelbarde he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I am inclined to agree with you that they didn't expect the resulting softclear of the people online at the end.

Will empahise the soft though, as I think enough of all of us to make that the gambit, rather than some sort of e!Matt gambit. I'm not actually reevaluating my village read on either of you, but just flagging that in case I do. Sleep is important, but it would have been nice to get a Stick confirmation in there too... >>

[Amanuensis he/him]

TBH my first instinct is gambit. But that's coming from a notorious gambit guy

[Haelbarde he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

TBH my first instinct is gambit. But that's coming from a notorious gambit guy

---

There's the possibility of an elim that was only around the first half the day, when I think Xino was third, after Aman and Nerdy?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I'm just astounded by the situation. An extremely bold play. Especially if they weren't here near rollover, which... what?

The fact they weren't near rollover almost makes me think they were confident it would be Nerdy. Which might say something about the votestate at that point.

Odds it was an info denial kill?

Quick and dirty until later:

RAW

C1:

Quote

Kas (3): Dannnnnex, Nerdy, Xino
Dannnnnex (6): Kas, Aman, JNV, Silvereye, Hael, Bookwyrm
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo
No Vote (5): TUN, Insanity, Almond, Stick, Wiz

C2:

Quote

Nerdy (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman
Silver (5): Wizard, Devo, Hael, Stick, Kasimir
Aman (3): Insanity, Fifth, Matrim
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond
No Vote (?): TUN, Silver

C3:

Quote

Aman (2): Fifth, Aman
Fifth (5): TUN, Stick, Almond, Bookwyrm, Mat
Xino (4): Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael
No Vote (2): Xino, Insanity

WITH CREDENCES

C1:

Quote

Kas (3): Dannnnnex, Nerdy, Xino
Dannnnnex (6): Kas, Aman, JNV, Silvereye, Hael, Bookwyrm
Mat (1): Fifth
Stick (1): Mat
Fifth (1): Devo
No Vote (5): TUN, Insanity, Almond, Stick, Wiz

C2:

Quote

Nerdy (3): Xino, Bookwyrm, Aman
Silver (5): Wizard, Devo, Hael, Stick, Kasimir
Aman (3): Insanity, Fifth, Matrim
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond
No Vote (?): TUN, Silver

C3:

Quote

Aman (2): Fifth, Aman
Fifth (5): TUN, Stick, Almond, Bookwyrm, Mat
Xino (4): Nerdy, Kas, Devo, Hael
No Vote (2): Xino, Insanity

1. Cui bono in Gambit World though?

2. The idea the Nerdy and Silver C2 trains are pure seems like 'bridge to sell you' territory. I'm having a hard time IDing Elim dispositions on C3 EoD.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Haelbarde said:

 

---

There's the possibility of an elim that was only around the first half the day, when I think Xino was third, after Aman and Nerdy?

My issue is that I can see a newer / low-active player making that decision, but I can't see a player of that same profile killing JNV, Wizard, and Devo. The MO doesn't match unless those kills were all blind luck. There's an argument for Stick, but I feel like that would require a ton of blind faith.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

 

---

There's the possibility of an elim that was only around the first half the day, when I think Xino was third, after Aman and Nerdy?

But why doesn't the teammate override this? Teammate not around as well? We are looking at at least one to two more Elims left.

Just now, Amanuensis said:

My issue is that I can see a newer / low-active player making that decision, but I can't see a player of that same profile killing JNV, Wizard, and Devo. The MO doesn't match unless those kills were all blind luck. There's an argument for Stick, but I feel like that would require a ton of blind faith.

That's the other issue IMO. It's the nerve problem again - does the newer / lower-active player have the nerve for yet another quiet kill?

[Haelbarde he/him]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

(4) Nerdy: Stick, Xino, Unknown, Bookwyrm, 
(2) TUN: Kas, Mat(t),
(1) Xino: Aman,

I feel like Kas and I are the only Nerdy resistance rn and that doesn't seem like a good sign. ED1T: Even Nerdy isn't resisting.

Like, 6 hours ago, Xino wasn't in any particular danger. And I'm forgetting what cycle Aman was under threat. But anways, 6 hours is pretty late in cycle.

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My issue is that I can see a newer / low-active player making that decision, but I can't see a player of that same profile killing JNV, Wizard, and Devo. The MO doesn't match unless those kills were all blind luck. There's an argument for Stick, but I feel like that would require a ton of blind faith.

That is quite true...

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

My issue is that I can see a newer / low-active player making that decision, but I can't see a player of that same profile killing JNV, Wizard, and Devo. The MO doesn't match unless those kills were all blind luck. There's an argument for Stick, but I feel like that would require a ton of blind faith.

Let me just be clear:

"Aman should WGG" Stick?

[Haelbarde he/him]

I will point out that the Xino lynch materialised after Stick went offline (last online 6 hours ago). And that Nerdy also hasn't been online for 14 hours.

[Amanuensis he/him]

How do we think Nerdy ghosting plays into this? A retaliation kill in case they were killed and Xino was cleared? Maybe Nerdy's partner didn't care if Nerdy died because they were ok with getting bussed? e!Nerdy had room to fight but never bothered to vote. But so far, Danex and Fifth both went quiet before they died and they flipped village. Is it village apathy?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

How do we think Nerdy ghosting plays into this? A retaliation kill in case they were killed and Xino was cleared? Maybe Nerdy's partner didn't care if Nerdy died because they were ok with getting bussed? e!Nerdy had room to fight but never bothered to vote. But so far, Danex and Fifth both went quiet before they died and they flipped village. Is it village apathy?

I have an odd question to stack onto this. I'm running a brief 'if I'm Evil, who do I kill C4' experiment in my GM PM as Xino is odd to me.

...In a set-up like this with so few Elims and the Village winning when they kill all the spies, the possibility of Village friendly fire...

Is two Elims outlandish? Because it feels like that would change the profile we are looking for even more.

Silver did go quiet as well before dying. That aspect makes me feel like it was planned on Silver's part. Retaliation kill could make sense, but...does it though. This team seems to be shooting in a potential IC pool?

[Haelbarde he/him]

 

Odds on Stick being put in a situation where e!Silver and e!Nerdy are tied, so they last minute hammer Silver for village cred when Silver flips (which doesn't end up being a tie because Kas comes in past last second), and then when e!Nerdy remains under heat, hops on that wagon to maintain village cred through to the end, on the backs of two fellow elims? Puts the kill on Xino because it seemed a safe kill, and neither turn up to find that Xino is now the leading counter wagon, and infact is the lead wagon.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

 

Odds on Stick being put in a situation where e!Silver and e!Nerdy are tied, so they last minute hammer Silver for village cred when Silver flips (which doesn't end up being a tie because Kas comes in past last second), and then when e!Nerdy remains under heat, hops on that wagon to maintain village cred through to the end, on the backs of two fellow elims? Puts the kill on Xino because it seemed a safe kill, and neither turn up to find that Xino is now the leading counter wagon, and infact is the lead wagon.

I guess the one issue is: given vote volatility over the past few cycles, do you really gamble with that?

It feels to me like you don't put a kill on Xino unless a dead Xino is actually acceptable to you even if volatility happens.

While I joke about Stick's "Aman should WGG", and want to leave that aside for the moment:

If Xino were just the Elim IC candidate, they should be fine leaving him to get MLed next IMO. The fact they were ok with killing him feels like a suggestion they believed he would no longer be MLed once Nerdy flipped.

Edited to add:

@Haelbarde, @Amanuensis IMO we only began to entertain more active Elim team members more seriously last cycle. Odds this was meant to draw our attention back to the inactives because only an inactive/low activity member could've 'missed switching the kill'?

Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice Your thoughts too  

Edited December 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have an odd question to stack onto this. I'm running a brief 'if I'm Evil, who do I kill C4' experiment in my GM PM as Xino is odd to me.

...In a set-up like this with so few Elims and the Village winning when they kill all the spies, the possibility of Village friendly fire...

Is two Elims outlandish? Because it feels like that would change the profile we are looking for even more.

Silver did go quiet as well before dying. That aspect makes me feel like it was planned on Silver's part. Retaliation kill could make sense, but...does it though. This team seems to be shooting in a potential IC pool?

I could buy a two elim world, but then I'm forced to scrutinize <Stick, Mat, Hael, Kas, and maybe TUN>

IMO, Stick putting a Xino kill in only works in an e!Nerdy world. Technically, the Xino kill works for v!Stick and e!Nerdy too, so Nerdy would need to be flipped first.

Even then, what does e!Stick expect if that plan succeeds? A clear for not being at rollover to see Nerdy flip red? Would she really attempt that, given how much I kept pushing Xino?

ED1T:

That's more or less what leads me to believe this is a gambit. Which means one or more of <Mat, Hael, Kas> are playing mind games with the rest of us. Sicko(s)!

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Haelbarde he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Even then, what does e!Stick expect if that plan succeeds? A clear for not being at rollover to see Nerdy flip red? Would she really attempt that, given how much I kept pushing Xino?

How would Stick be cleared for not being on at rollover?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Haelbarde said:

How would Stick be cleared for not being on at rollover?

Stick voted Nerdy and bowed out. Assuming E!Nerdy, she would be expecting him to die and for Xino to be cleared, and so put in the Xino kill order. If Stick and Nerdy aren't paired, the only reason she would otherwise kill Xino is that she thought he was Wiznik or Inner Circle. Which still is a weird gamble to make, knowing that Xino has been a consistent talking point / train. Point is, if that succeeded, she would be able to say she voted out e!Nerdy and couldn't have put the Xino kill in.

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

 

Odds on Stick being put in a situation where e!Silver and e!Nerdy are tied, so they last minute hammer Silver for village cred when Silver flips (which doesn't end up being a tie because Kas comes in past last second), and then when e!Nerdy remains under heat, hops on that wagon to maintain village cred through to the end, on the backs of two fellow elims? Puts the kill on Xino because it seemed a safe kill, and neither turn up to find that Xino is now the leading counter wagon, and infact is the lead wagon.

The idea of this was more or less what made me look at Stick to begin with; the thought that e!Nerdy meant Stick/Kas/Hael were uncleared. That’s why I voted Nerdy initially. To check for that world.

Then I was told Stick didn’t work with Nerdy because she was pushing him over xino. Which is valid but idk.

Kas/Nerdy makes some sense here. Is there a reason not to flip Nerdy?

[Haelbarde he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Stick voted Nerdy and bowed out. Assuming E!Nerdy, she would be expecting him to die and for Xino to be cleared, and so put in the Xino kill order. If Stick and Nerdy aren't paired, the only reason she would otherwise kill Xino is that she thought he was Wiznik or Inner Circle. Which still is a weird gamble to make, knowing that Xino has been a consistent talking point / train. Point is, if that succeeded, she would be able to say she voted out e!Nerdy and couldn't have put the Xino kill in.

I think that makes sense, gotcha.

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The idea of this was more or less what made me look at Stick to begin with; the thought that e!Nerdy meant Stick/Kas/Hael were uncleared. That’s why I voted Nerdy initially. To check for that world.

Then I was told Stick didn’t work with Nerdy because she was pushing him over xino. Which is valid but idk.

Kas/Nerdy makes some sense here. Is there a reason not to flip Nerdy?

It's what I'm considering. Third times a charm?  

I will want to plot out for myself likely outcomes/what information that nets us before actually throwing any votes around though. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The idea of this was more or less what made me look at Stick to begin with; the thought that e!Nerdy meant Stick/Kas/Hael were uncleared. That’s why I voted Nerdy initially. To check for that world.

Then I was told Stick didn’t work with Nerdy because she was pushing him over xino. Which is valid but idk.

Kas/Nerdy makes some sense here. Is there a reason not to flip Nerdy?

I'm not against a Nerdy yeet, especially after this flip, but I also keep getting more and more concerned about a E/V/V C2 EoD and we're cannibalizing villagers because we see ghosts. I don't want to be hasty.

I'm going to do a total player list re-evaluation tomorrow. It's 1am tho and I need slep.

ED1T:

5 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

I think that makes sense, gotcha.

Oh one more thing. Stick left saying "If y'all kill Xino while I'm gone, please reconsider Nerdy tomorrow." Does e!Stick say that and then submit a Xino kill?

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

I- 

I overslept 

IMO the Xino kill means e!Nerdy cuz we wouldn’t have flipped Xino if Nerdy is E

[Haelbarde he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh one more thing. Stick left saying "If y'all kill Xino while I'm gone, please reconsider Nerdy tomorrow." Does e!Stick say that and then submit a Xino kill?

I think that's compelling enough a point to take off my paranoia hat.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Haelbarde

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

I think that's compelling enough a point to take off my paranoia hat.

Well...

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I- 

I overslept 

IMO the Xino kill means e!Nerdy cuz we wouldn’t have flipped Xino if Nerdy is E

Now it's possible e!Stick overslept when they meant to be online to change a default kill.

But again, that would mean her making that default kill choice at all, which is still kayana.

ED1T:

Also, hi @_Stick_. We totally haven't been talking about killing you. Nope. Why do you ask?

Re: e!Nerdy. That fits, tbf, but there's no way the team is just Silver/Nerdy. Which then I ask what partner lets that kill go?

Edited December 22, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

I think that my defending Xino a bit too strongly might’ve indicated to the elims that both of us are in the IC doc. I talked a bit about xino’s doc activity vs thread activity and I wonder if that played a part in this. 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I think that my defending Xino a bit too strongly might’ve indicated to the elims that both of us are in the IC doc. I talked a bit about xino’s doc activity vs thread activity and I wonder if that played a part in this. 

Then why wouldn’t they kill you over xino